MLBTR Originals

Analyzing The Five Players Who Opted Out

By Tim Dierkes | February 24, 2014 at 2:53pm CDT

As I mentioned in my opt-out feature article last week, five players have used an opt-out to secure a new contract or extension: Alex Rodriguez, J.D. Drew, A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia, and Rafael Soriano. A-Rod and Sabathia stayed with the Yankees, with Sabathia getting a year added to his contract just before the point of opting out. Drew, Burnett, and Soriano signed with new teams.

One negative often associated with opt-out clauses is that if a player has two or three good years, he'll just opt out and his former team will miss out. But what if the five players above had not opted out? Would their teams have come out ahead?

For this exercise, we'll use FanGraphs' dollar valuations, which were explained here by Dave Cameron. My definition of an opt-out clause is a provision where the player can become a free agent midway through a multiyear deal, at a point where he has multiple guaranteed years remaining.

Alex Rodriguez: Opted out of 2008-10 seasons, for which the Yankees would have paid him $72MM. A-Rod produced 13.7 WAR during that time, which was worth $60.1MM. He was a very good player from 2008-10, averaging about 4.6 WAR per year, but he didn't provide great value for the price.
J.D. Drew: Opted out of 2007-09 seasons, for which the Dodgers would have paid him $33MM. Drew produced 10.5 WAR during that time, which was worth $46.8MM. This opt out hurts in that regard, though the Dodgers paid $22MM for Drew's 6.8 WAR in 2005-06, which is valued at $24.2MM. While it would have been excellent value to have Drew for the duration of his five-year, $55MM contract, the Dodgers didn't do poorly in getting the first two years.
A.J. Burnett: Opted out of 2009-10 seasons, for which the Blue Jays would have paid him $24MM. He was worth 4.3 WAR during that time, valued at $19.2MM. The Jays wound up paying $31MM for 10.7 WAR from 2006-08, which is valued at $45.2MM. As former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi put it in our interview, "We put the opt-out in there and in all honesty, it ended up working out great for us."
C.C. Sabathia: Would have opted out of 2012-15 seasons, for which the Yankees owed him $92MM. Sabathia's 7.3 WAR from 2012-13 was worth $34.3MM, and it's difficult to picture him producing $57.7MM worth of value for his age 33-34 seasons. Had the Yankees allowed Sabathia to opt out and leave after 2011, they would have missed out on a strong 2012 season. Still, the case can be made that they should have let him go after paying $69MM for 17.5 WAR from 2009-11, which is valued at $76.8MM.
Rafael Soriano: Opted out of 2013 season, for which the Yankees owed him $14MM. I'm not a big fan of using WAR to evaluate reliever salaries, but I am comfortable saying Soriano's 2013 season was nothing special and not worth his salary. I should note that Soriano's post-2012 opt-out doesn't fit neatly into our definition of the clause — with one year left at that point, it resembled a player option, which is more common.

Take a look at the following table, which shows each player's age in the season immediately following his opt-out:

Of the ten opt-out clauses in baseball history, only Tanaka could opt out and sign a new contract that begins on the right side of 30. Even Kershaw could be mortal by his age 31 season. With an average age of 31 after the opt out, it's not surprising that with four of the five opt-outs that have been employed, the team was better off losing the player and the back end of his original contract.

MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | February 23, 2014 at 6:24pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Tim Dierkes spoke with agents Darek Braunecker and Greg Genske and ex-Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi about the pros and cons of opt-out clauses (all three have negotiated contracts containing opt-outs) and how "another bite at the apple" has become part of every agent's arsenal for premium clients.
Tim was the first to report reliever Andrew Bailey was close to signing with the Yankees.
Tim learned some of the remaining free agents tied to draft pick compensation would rather wait until after the June amateur draft to sign rather than agree to a below market deal now.
Steve Adams sees risk for both sides in the Homer Bailey extension: the Reds paying market value one year early and Bailey leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table, if he continues the improvement he's shown over the past two seasons.
Tim opined the Braves subverted the arbitration system with the Craig Kimbrel extension and found a way to keep an elite reliever for more than one or two additional years, but the star closer can rest easy in the knowledge his family has financial security for generations to come.
Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers about the parameters of a Mike Trout extension with the Angels. The consensus (as measured by the median of responses) was the Angels should be willing to give Trout a 10-year, $300MM deal, but a nine-year, $250MM contract is more likely to be reached.
Zach Links was the first to learn Manny Ramirez switched agents: leaving Praver/Shapiro for Alex Esteban of Miami Sports Management.
Steve hosted this week's chat.
Zach compiled the latest edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Another Bite At The Apple: Opt-Out Clauses In MLB

By Tim Dierkes | February 21, 2014 at 12:05am CDT

An opt-out clause is the ultimate safety net for an MLB player. Typically employed with deals of least five guaranteed years, an opt-out clause is inserted in the middle of the term and allows the player to abandon the rest of his contract and become a free agent.

Alex Rodriguez started the opt-out trend with his monster free agent deal with the Rangers in December 2000, and in total, ten players have received opt-out clauses. Six of those clauses have come due, and only one of those players, Vernon Wells, didn't secure additional money at the time. C.C. Sabathia leveraged his ability to opt out to add one year and $30MM to an already record-setting deal. The others — A-Rod, J.D. Drew, A.J. Burnett, and Rafael Soriano — got to take another lucrative bite at the apple of free agency.

A Deal-Making Idea

On the night before the 2005 Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, agent Darek Braunecker had a client in A.J. Burnett who he felt was on an island in terms of being the best pitcher available. It was at that point Braunecker conceived of the idea of asking for an opt-out clause in Burnett's deal. "I wanted to create something that might add additional value to the deal as opposed to just the monetary component of it," explained Braunecker in a January conversation.

Burnett's five-year, $55MM deal with the Blue Jays came together quickly once the team agreed to include an opt-out clause after the third year. "Quite honestly, it was a deal-maker for us," said Braunecker. "I presented the idea to [Blue Jays GM] J.P. [Ricciardi] and told him that we had another club that had already agreed to that provision, and that if he was willing to do it that he would have a deal. So, really, no pushback to speak of. He obviously had to get approval from [club president] Paul Godfrey, and Paul gave his blessing on it almost immediately and that's essentially what concluded those negotiations." Braunecker added, "It really wasn't much of a challenge, to be honest with you."

Three years later, agent Greg Genske had the enjoyment of negotiating on behalf of the offseason's best available starting pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, and eventually landed a record-setting seven-year, $161MM deal with an opt-out clause after the third year. There seems to be some disagreement about who proposed the clause. Back in 2008, Matt Gagne of the New York Daily News quoted Yankees GM Brian Cashman saying, "I offered it. They never asked for it. They never said they were afraid of New York, I never heard that….Just in case it was an issue, I went to their house and I said, 'I think you're going to love it here. But let me just throw this out there.'" Genske disputed Cashman's account, telling me in January this year, "That's not true at all. That was a negotiated item that was difficult to get the Yankees to agree to. It was the last item agreed to."

The sheer rarity of opt-out clauses suggests they're not something teams are readily offering up. Only ten opt-out clauses have been given out in total, though two of them came in January this year for Excel Sports Management clients Clayton Kershaw and Masahiro Tanaka. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, 52 MLB contracts have been worth $100MM or more. Only seven of those included opt-out clauses. Asked if he's surprised we've seen so many top of the market deals without opt-out clauses, Genske replied, "I don't think I'm surprised. It certainly is a big deal for a club. If a club's going to commit themselves to those kinds of dollars, then they don't get the benefit of the upside fully if the player has the right to opt out. I certainly understand clubs' resistance to do it."

Agents Seek Another Bite At The Apple

For an agent, the motivation for an opt-out clause is obvious, and Genske says he'd ask for an opt-out for any top-tier free agent where he has the maximum amount of leverage. "It's pretty unique that a player is going to put in all of the effort and all of the work to get to free agency, and have that ultimate leverage, and I think the opt-out provision is simply a player maintaining that control over their career that they've earned," says Genske. Braunecker offered his thoughts, saying, "An opt-out adds almost unquantifiable value to a deal because the player gains a whole lot of leverage in the life of the deal as opposed to after the expiration of the deal."

Indeed, the player can't lose with an opt-out clause. The shot at free agency amounts to what one executive who worked on a deal with an opt-out described as "another bite at the apple, a chance to keep up with the market in case the market continues to run while he's performing over the course of time." Look at the results of those extra bites so far. Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta negotiated J.D. Drew's five-year, $55MM deal with agent Scott Boras in December 2004, and DePodesta's successor Ned Colletti seemed displeased and surprised when Drew opted out two years later. Drew abandoned his remaining three years and $33MM and landed a five-year, $70MM deal with the Red Sox.

Alex Rodriguez opted out of the largest deal in baseball history seven years in, only to top that with a $275MM contract with the Yankees. Boras' terrible choice to announce A-Rod's decision during the final game of the 2007 World Series aside, the player abandoning three years and $72MM came as no surprise by that point. Burnett's decision came due after the '08 campaign. As Braunecker notes, timing was everything, and Burnett's 231 strikeouts in 221 1/3 innings for the Jays in '08 compelled him to discard the remaining two years and $24MM on his contract. He ultimately landed a five-year, $82.5MM contract with the Yankees. Though C.C. Sabathia did not technically opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his deal after 2011, the leverage of the fast-approaching clause allowed Genske to add one year and $30MM to the deal.

Rafael Soriano's Yankees contract, signed in January 2011, was an odd situation. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and president Randy Levine did the deal with Boras, as GM Brian Cashman was opposed to the signing partially because signing the reliever required forfeiture of a draft pick. Boras used the situation to demand opt-out clauses for Soriano after the first and second seasons of a three-year, $35MM deal. Soriano chose not to opt out of two years and $25MM after a disappointing 2011 season. After an excellent 2012, however, he took a $1.5MM buyout over a remaining one year and $14MM, signing a two-year, $28MM deal with deferred money with the Nationals. Only Boras has achieved multiple opt-outs within one contract, with Elvis Andrus' 2013 eight-year, $120MM extension from last year allowing the shortstop to opt out after four or five years.

Genske client Vernon Wells had three years and $63MM remaining when his clause came up. After a disappointing 2011 campaign with the Angels, Wells made the obvious decision not to opt out. Most MLB contracts are guaranteed, so the opt-out clause didn't end up adding value for Wells.

The next opt-out due is Zack Greinke's after 2015, at which point he'll have $71MM remaining over three years. He'll get the chance for another bite of the apple at age 32. The remainder of Greinke's contract will equate to a $23.67MM average annual value. Regardless of whether he can top that healthy AAV, he could extend his security by seeking a four or five-year deal.

Besides another shot at free agency, you will hear mention of other motivations. Explained Genske, "Certainly with CC too, it was in part a comfort issue, being a California guy who envisioned going back to California who was going to go to New York, he wasn't sure how he'd like it. It turned out great, he likes it, but there was some uncertainty there which kind of necessitated the opt-out."

Braunecker expressed a similar geographic concern in Burnett's opt-out clause, but also questioned the direction of the Blue Jays. "I wasn't completely certain particularly with Toronto where that organization was headed, and so rather than him being there for five years I wanted to give him the opportunity to shorten the deal in the event that he got up there in the event he didn't like it, living in Canada as opposed to the U.S., and also just I wasn't 100% certain which direction they were headed with things."

Why Teams Agree To Opt-Out Clauses

"Let's face it: free agent players are not coming to Toronto. That's just the way it is," professed former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi. "Everything is great about Toronto, but it's still foreign to a lot of players. It's not so much the players, it's their families. When players are on the free agent market, the families have a big say in what happens, so a lot of them say they'd really rather not go to another country to play." Ricciardi said he found he needed to do three things to bring a top free agent to Toronto: "overpay, overcommit, and be creative." For A.J. Burnett, that meant a five-year deal when many suitors stopped at four, a strong salary of $11MM a year, and an opt-out clause.

Ricciardi expressed a sentiment we heard from multiple executives, explaining, "Maybe it's just simplistic on my part, but I don't mind the opt-out. It's not that big a deal for me in the sense that if it comes down to either having the player or not having the player, I'd rather have the player." Burnett ended up compiling a 3.94 ERA across 522 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays from 2006-08 before opting out. Ricciardi was pleased with the outcome, saying, "We got probably his three best combined years, so for us it was great." A team can potentially duck a player's decline phase, which is the baggage that comes with a typical long-term deal.

Look at the Yankees and Sabathia. In the first three years of his deal, he provided the team with a 3.18 ERA in 705 regular season innings, finishing no lower than fourth in the Cy Young voting from 2009-11. Had Sabathia signed elsewhere after 2011, the Yankees would have missed out on a strong 2012 campaign, but also would have avoided owing him a large amount of money for his age 32-35 seasons. Ricciardi summed it up best: "I guess the old adage that you'd rather trade a guy a year too early than a year too late, maybe that applies with the opt-out."

A Potential Trend

Is the opt-out clause a growing trend in baseball? From 2000-08, there were five opt-out clauses. There were none in 2009-10, and then five from 2011 to present. Of the last five, two were done by Boras and three by Excel Sports Management. Excel's deals were for starting pitchers Greinke, Kershaw, and Tanaka, with two of those hurlers landing with the Dodgers.

Opt-out clauses seem more likely for large market teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers accounting for eight of the ten. Ricciardi, who went against the grain by doing opt-out clauses with mid-level payrolls, feels large market teams don't have to be as desperate. "I think if you're the Yankees and the Red Sox, there's a little bit more finances behind you, and you probably don't have to be as risk-taking in the sense of being open-minded about having stuff like this." So far, the Yankees have given opt-out clauses to Sabathia, Soriano, and Tanaka, and also traded for A-Rod. The Red Sox have never given a player an opt-out clause, so there's more to it than market size. Sometimes the decision is philosophical. The Cubs, for example, refused to offer the clause to Tanaka out of concern that he could leave shortly after their window of contention opens, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Alex Rodriguez earned the first opt-out clause through a combination of nearly every factor that can drive a contract into uncharted waters. He was a superstar at a premium position, he was atypically young at 25, he was the best available free agent, and he had a precedent-setting agent in Boras. In 2008, a 28-year Sabathia brought many of the same factors together; he was "the top free agent on the market and had all the leverage in the world," according to Genske. Kershaw had A-Rod's youth and superstar talent, plus the precedent of teammate Greinke, creating enough leverage to get an opt-out a year prior to free agency. Other times, being the best available free agent is the key driver of the opt-out clause, which applied to Burnett, Greinke, Tanaka, and Soriano. Certainly youth played a role with Tanaka and Andrus.

These days, an opt-out clause is part of every agent's arsenal for premium clients who meet some of the above criteria, and that might not have been the case a decade ago. Still, asking is not the same as receiving, and huge contracts for Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, and many others lack an opt-out clause. While it's difficult to picture a Mike Trout megadeal without an opt-out, the opportunity for a player to take another bite at the apple midway through a long-term contract is likely to remain a rarity in MLB.

ALSO FROM MLB TRADE RUMORS:

Photo courtesy of Greg M. Cooper of USA Today Sports Images.

How Much Would Kimbrel Have Earned In Arbitration?

By Tim Dierkes | February 17, 2014 at 9:33am CDT

Back in October, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained that Braves closer Craig Kimbrel has been so good in his first three seasons, he broke our arbitration projection model. We eventually decided to create a special rule because of Kimbrel, which limits a player's raise to $1MM beyond the previous record for his player type. Since Jonathan Papelbon had set a $6.25MM first-time arbitration record for closers in 2009, we capped Kimbrel's 2014 projection at $7.25MM.

Without the rule, our system had assigned a $10.2MM projection to Kimbrel, so we lopped off about $3MM more for which he at least had a statistical argument, if not a precedent. With such a wide spread of possibilities, it was no surprise when Kimbrel and the Braves ended up exchanging arbitration figures. Kimbrel and his agent David Meter submitted a $9MM figure, a number reflective of the attitude, "We don't just deserve to beat Papelbon's record, we should crush it." The Braves went with $6.55MM, which would have thrown Kimbrel just $300K beyond Papelbon's record despite this potential hearing coming five years later and Kimbrel's far superior statistical record.

With a midpoint of $7.775MM, Meter would only have had to convince an arbitration panel his client deserved a dollar more than that, meaning that Kimbrel should get $1,525,001 more than Papelbon did. You always hear that arbitration hearings are a crapshoot, but if I were a betting man, I would have bet on Kimbrel's side. It's not just Meter putting together the argument; they would have had the knowledge of a motivated players' union behind them.

Once the two sides reached the point of exchanging figures, a one-year deal went off the board because of the Braves' file-to-go stance. But the two sides still discussed a multiyear deal and were able to get it done. Kimbrel signed a four-year, $42MM deal with a club option for 2018. The deal bought out all three of Kimbrel's arbitration years and one free agent year, with the option for a second free agent year.

For Meter and the Braves, one key question that had to be explored before agreeing to this deal was how much Kimbrel stood to earn in arbitration going year-to-year. I asked Matt Swartz to show me a few scenarios. Initially, Matt used what I considered to be fairly conservative stat projections for 2014 and 2015. He used Steamer's 65 innings, 28 saves, and 1.88 ERA for Kimbrel's 2014 season, and then regressed to the mean a bit on 2015 with 55 innings, 22 saves, and a 2.20 ERA.

Using these stats and assuming Kimbrel lost this month's arbitration hearing, he'd have salaries of $6.55MM, $9.9MM, and $12.9MM for a total of $29.35MM over his three arbitration years. In his actual multiyear deal, Kimbrel will earn $28MM over his three arbitration years. In this scenario, Kimbrel left just $1.35MM in arbitration money on the table. In his multiyear deal he still conceded up to two free agent years, and of course the younger a free agent is, the better he does.

Using the same stats and assuming Kimbrel won this month's arbitration hearing, he'd have salaries of $9MM, $12MM, and $14.7MM for a total of $35.7MM. It's interesting to note that there was a lot more at stake in the 2014 hearing than the $2.45MM spread — losing this one hearing would have lost Kimbrel a projected $6.35MM in total arbitration earnings. Comparing the $35.7MM projection to the $28MM his contract pays, Kimbrel gave a discount of more than 21% for his arbitration years.

As I mentioned above, I felt that Matt's statistical projections for Kimbrel were pretty conservative. The 50 saves Matt projected for 2014-15 is equal to his 2013 total. In three years as a closer, he's averaged 46 saves per year. Still, great closers fall short of the 40 save plateau all the time. I asked Matt to plug in 35 saves for each of the 2014 and '15 seasons and run the numbers. With the pair of 35-save seasons, Kimbrel projected to earn $33.65MM for 2014-16 if he lost his 2014 arbitration hearing and $40.1MM if he won it.

It's clear that the Braves feel Kimbrel has a good chance to reel off quality 35 save seasons in his next two years, with a reasonable chance of more than 70 overall. Let's say, then, that the team might estimate his arbitration earnings in the $34-42MM range. Compared to the actual contract, they might consider their arbitration savings anywhere from 18 to 33%. In the scenario where Kimbrel wins his 2014 arbitration hearing and then reels off a pair of 35 save seasons, which I find quite plausible, the Braves essentially secured his first free agent year for free, plus an option on a second.

Keeping with the 35 save scenario, Kimbrel's 2016 salary projected at $16.1MM if he won lost his 2014 hearing and $17.9MM if he won it. Since more than 35 saves a year is certainly possible, I'd widen that range and just say Kimbrel could have earned $16-20MM in 2016 alone. Whatever the exact number, even the free agent market is not paying that much for elite relievers. The Braves were likely picturing not being able to keep Kimbrel on the team in 2016, a point at which he'd have reduced trade value with an arbitration salary outstripping his potential free market salary. Furthermore, if you take a more aggressive 40 save projection for Kimbrel for 2014 and assume he would have won the upcoming hearing, a $14MM salary for 2015 appeared possible. Even that might have been untenable for Atlanta, reducing their Kimbrel window to one more year.

Since Kimbrel could have potentially earned all $42MM through arbitration and then gone to free agency as a 28-year-old, you might ask why he signed this multiyear deal. As with most multiyear deals, Kimbrel chose to leave some potential earnings on the table for guaranteed money now. Eric Gagne is a cautionary tale. The former Dodgers closer was invincible from 2002-04 and then pitched 15 1/3 innings from 2005-06 due to elbow issues. If something like that happens to Kimbrel, he's still got all $42MM coming to him, which is not the case if he had decided to go year-to-year through arbitration.

The arbitration pay scale for closers is just wacky, even more so in a time where teams are backing away from huge contracts for relievers. With this deal, the Braves subverted the arbitration system and found a way to keep an elite reliever for more than one or two additional years. If Kimbrel stays healthy and reasonably effective, they'll save significant money compared to arbitration, too. Kimbrel can rest easy, having secured his family for generations three years prior to when he would have reached free agency.

MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | February 16, 2014 at 8:20pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

Tim Dierkes provided an extensive scouting report on Masahiro Tanaka (repertoire and approach, injury risk, and overall ability) by speaking with high-ranking officials with scouting-related positions for four MLB teams, who have seen the right-hander pitch in person (none work for the Yankees). The consensus is Tanaka will be one of the 25 best MLB starting pitchers in 2014 with one scout pegging the 25-year-old as being "toward the higher end of the spectrum" and contending for the Cy Young Award.
Zach Links participated in the conference call announcing the Rangers' signing of Tommy Hanson and reported the right-hander chose Texas because "that was going to be the best fit for me with being able to go in and make the rotation and be a part of the team."
During the same conference call, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told Zach, "We don't have any other offers out there and I think that there's no definite end to the offseason anymore. It's a 24/7/365 thing but we don't have anything else in the works right now at this point."
Charlie Wilmoth argues the Dodgers could have a bargain on their hands with Paul Maholm because the market has been overreacting to durable, pitch-to-contact, mid-to-back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers.
Tim learned three or four teams have serious interest in Ervin Santana (#6 on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list).
Tim broke the news the deal right-hander James McDonald signed with the Cubs was a Major League contract.
Tim reported agents are not pleased with the Rockies' pre-arbitration salary scale: the league minimun of $500K plus $1K for each service year.
Steve hosted this week's live chat.
Zach assembled the best of the baseball blogosphere for you in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Scouting Masahiro Tanaka

By Tim Dierkes | February 11, 2014 at 12:05am CDT

Though he's yet to throw a pitch in the Major Leagues, the Yankees committed a massive $175MM to sign 25-year-old righty Masahiro Tanaka in January. $20MM of that went to his old team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, with $155MM going to Tanaka. Tanaka's contract is the third-largest ever for a pitcher in MLB history, topped only by Clayton Kershaw's new extension with the Dodgers and C.C. Sabathia's 2008 free agent deal with the Yankees. Like those deals, Tanaka's includes an opt-out clause.

Tanaka comes to MLB for the 2014 season after posting what many scouts refer to as "video game numbers" in Japan last year: a 24-0 record and a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings. Last Friday, Yankees GM Brian Cashman did his best to temper expectations for Tanaka in a conversation with ESPN's Ian O'Connor. Cashman said he expects the pitcher to have growing pains in the States, and asked his ultimate upside two or three years down the road, the GM said Tanaka "has the potential to be a really solid consistent number three starter." Free agent salaries continue to rise, but I don't think the Yankees would spend that kind of money on a pitcher they thought might become a number three a year or two before his opt-out clause comes up.

Unbiased opinions were needed. To get a feel for Tanaka's repertoire and approach, injury risk, and overall ability, I spoke to high-ranking officials with scouting-related positions for four MLB teams (referred to simply as "scouts" later in this article). Each has seen the pitcher in person extensively, and none work for the Yankees.

Before we begin, here is a refresher on the 20-80 (or 2-8) scouting scale from Kevin Goldstein, formerly of Baseball Prospectus: "A score of 50 is major-league average, 60 is above-average (also referred to as "plus"), and 70 is among the best ("plus-plus"). 80 is top of the charts, and not a score that gets thrown around liberally." For more information on scouting pitchers from Goldstein, click here.

Scouting Report: Three Plus Pitches

Tanaka's fastball typically sits between 91-93 miles per hour, with the ability to touch 96 mph. Most of the scouts to whom I spoke graded his fastball as a 6, or plus, though one put a 70 on the heater. One scout praised his fastball in saying he throws a "heavy ball," though two others noted the pitch can get flat or straight at times. One of those two said Tanaka's fastball is "probably his most hittable pitch, in a way."

Scouts agreed Tanaka has a second or third gear for his fastball. In Japan he'd often be in "cruise control" for the first half of the game, ramping his fastball up into the mid-90s later if he needed to. Noted one scout who loves Tanaka, "When they're in Japan, they don't have to throw their best stuff because the league's not as good." That figures to change for Tanaka in MLB, given the deeper lineups.

Tanaka clearly had plus-plus control in Japan, with walk rates below two per nine innings in each of the last four seasons. Scouts feel that will translate to plus in the States. Grading Tanaka's command, one scout said "60 or 70," another went with 55, and one gave a 5. The most pessimistic scout elaborated, "I actually thought with the offspeed stuff, the splitter and the slider especially, I thought there was more command of those pitches. And I thought with the fastball he definitely threw strikes to an above average level but I thought the command, pinpointing it, was just average." When Tanaka does get into trouble in MLB, there's a good chance it will be the result of throwing hittable fastballs.

Next is Tanaka's splitter, by most accounts a nasty pitch. One scout put an 8 on it, suggesting if you don't put an 8 on this particular pitch, then you might be the type who never gives out 8s. He explained, "It's not a tumbling pitch. It's more of a disappearing fastball. It's not a Contreras splitter that comes out and kind of flutters." Two others put 7s on the splitter, though one dissented with a 6. That person admitted the split "could be plus-plus," but unlike his peers, he feels Tanaka's best pitch is his slider.

The lone scout who prefers the slider explained, "I think it's a true slider with a good tilt, he would get depth to it more than ones that are plus-plus." He feels the slider has a slight lead over the splitter, noting the slider has been Tanaka's pitch since his high school days. With the other scouts, Tanaka's slider received a 6 across the board.

It is generally agreed that Tanaka's fastball, splitter, and slider are plus pitches, and he'll get strikeouts with each. For a change of pace, he also throws a slow curveball, described by one scout as "useful." This pitch grades in the 45-50 range. Tanaka's ability to throw this pitch for strikes allows him to pitch backward if he chooses. Typically, though, Tanaka's approach is aggressive, as one scout explained: "He pitches inside, he doesn't pitch away from contact a lot. Some guys in Japan, they're not as aggressive. He has more of a Western style that he's not afraid to go up and in, he's not afraid to pitch inside. He pitches kind of with a little chip on his shoulder."

Reduced Strikeout Rate: Red Flag?

Though he posted a 1.27 ERA, Tanaka struck out only 7.8 batters per nine innings last year in Japan. That mark was his lowest since 2010. While one scout admitted, "It's certainly not a positive," all agreed the reduced strikeout rate is not a cause for concern. Explained another, "He's the type of guy that if he wants to, he can go out and strike out hitters. He's a brilliant, smart pitcher and he's not afraid to pitch to contact. I saw him doing that a lot that last couple years. That's one of the reasons he was able to stay efficient with his pitch counts." Throw in MLB lineups that are much more prone to swinging and missing, and there's good reason to believe Tanaka will whiff more than 7.8 per nine in 2014.

Heavy Workload: Cause For Concern?

In December, multiple MLB executives expressed concern to Yahoo's Jeff Passan regarding Tanaka's high pitch counts. The righty averaged about 110 pitches per regular season start in 2013, with seven outings in excess of 122 and a high of 136. Most famously, Tanaka threw 160 pitches in a Japan Series game and another 15 the next day in relief. In total, he threw 1,315 innings through his age-24 season, which hasn't happened in the Majors since the mid-70s, according to SI's Tom Verducci. Perhaps the GMs and owners calling the shots were worried about Tanaka's high pitch counts, but most of the scouts we talked to brushed it off.

"He's been trained for that his entire life," remarked one. Another noted his durable, solid body and suggested he's someone who might be able to handle throwing a lot of pitches. One scout noted that while it's obviously not a great idea to throw 160 pitches in a game, Japanese pitchers typically get six or seven days rest between starts, making the total mileage similar to MLB starters. None of the four feel that Tanaka's injury risk exceeds that of a typical MLB starter. Keep in mind, however, that the chance of going on the disabled list for the average MLB starter is around 39% for 2014, based on research from Jeff Zimmerman for FanGraphs.

Tanaka's Overall Projection

In a tweet last month, Joel Sherman of the New York Post said the comparables he's heard most often for Tanaka are Hiroki Kuroda and prime-age Dan Haren, plus reliever Bryan Harvey for his splitter. One scout agreed with the Haren comp, noting that Tanaka has more arm strength. Others cited Zack Greinke and Matt Cain.

In terms of placing an overall grade on Tanaka, opinions ranged, but all were quite positive. One scout, who admitted being "toward the higher end of the spectrum," described Tanaka as a number one starter, without hesitation. He expects Tanaka to contend for the Cy Young, and feels he'll be one of the ten best starting pitchers in MLB in 2014.

The other three scouts placed Tanaka in a slightly lower tier, ranking him in the #15-25 range among all MLB starters for 2014. Two of them described him as a number two starter.

The mystery of how Tanaka will perform in Major League Baseball should be resolved in short order. He'll face MLB hitters in Spring Training later this month, and could have a bit of a soft landing with the Yankees' first three regular season games coming in Houston in early April.

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