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The Encouraging Developments Of Brandon Marsh

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Just as the trade deadline was approaching last year, the Phillies sent sent catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels in order to acquire center fielder Brandon Marsh. The latter was one of the top prospects in the league a few years ago but was relatively overshadowed on an Angels team that had stars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Marsh was perhaps best known for trying to make his head suit his surname, as he didn’t do too much to stand out with the bat.

Making his debut in 2021, he got into 70 games and took 260 trips to the plate. He struck out in 35% of those, walked in 7.7% of them and hit just a pair of home runs. He finished that year with a .254/.317/.356 batting line and an 85 wRC+, indicating he was 15% below league average. Up until the trade last year, it was more of the same. In 323 plate appearances for the Halos prior to the deal, he struck out 36.2% of the time, walked at a 6.8% clip and slashed .226/.284/.353 for a 79 wRC+.

The move to the Phillies seems to have been a turning point, however. His walk rate actually dropped to 4.3% after coming to Philadelphia last year, but his strikeout also dipped to 29.7%. That was still much higher than league average but a noticeable improvement from his own track record. That led to a .288/.319/.455 batting line and 114 wRC+. Here in 2023, he’s off to a tremendous .314/.402/.578 start and a 164 wRC+.

There’s one big caveat to throw out here, as Marsh currently has a .444 batting average on balls in play that no hitter could sustain. Last year’s league leader, for instance, was Paul Goldschmidt and his .368 mark. Once Marsh sees his BABIP figure regress, his overall numbers won’t be quite so gaudy. But digging under the hood reveals there’s still plenty of things to be encouraged by. He’s striking out at a 29.9% clip that is definitely still high but more manageable than the roughly 35% clip he was at previously. He’s also walking at an amazing 12% clip, well above this year’s 8.8% league average. Considering how rarely he took free passes before, that’s an excellent sign.

The batted ball metrics also shed some positive light on the better results, as basically everything has improved relative to last year. His barrel rate is up from 7.4% to 10.4%. His average exit velocity was 89.2 mph last year but is at 92 mph in 2023. His hard hit rate has gone from 38.2% to 47.8%. It’s still a fairly small sample of 117 plate appearances but he’s striking out less, walking more, hitting the ball harder and doing so more often. And it doesn’t seem to have come out of nowhere.

Back in October, when the Phillies were in the World Series, Marsh and hitting coach Kevin Long spoke to Sam Blum of The Athletic about the changes that had been made to his swing. “I devised a game plan on what I was going to do with his swing,” Long said. “And the mechanics of his swing. I always start by getting guys closer to the hitting position than further away. So we spread him out. We got him into his legs. It worked.”

All of these offensive improvements are a great coup since Marsh was already a valuable contributor as a glove-first center fielder. Defensive Runs Saved doesn’t seem to like him in center much, putting him slightly below average in each of his three seasons thus far. Ultimate Zone Rating has him in the positive range, though, and Outs Above Average has him at +5 through 1,251 innings. Marsh is also ranked in the 88th percentile in terms of sprint speed and has 17 stolen bases in his career thus far.

With all of those traits, FanGraphs calculated him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement in 204 games over 2021 and 2022, even while hitting at a subpar rate. Now with much better offense this year, he’s already at 1.3 fWAR in just 33 games, more than halfway to his previous total in a fraction of the time. As mentioned earlier, he’s due for a bit of regression, but there are reasons to suspect he’ll eventually settle somewhere that’s much better than his previous work.

The 25-year-old came into this year with one year and 78 days of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. For a Phillies team that has spent big on players including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos, and would also like to get Aaron Nola signed to an extension, getting big value out of an overlooked player like Marsh is an important victory.

The Reds Should Expand Their Youth Movement Even Further

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The Reds entered the 2023 season with a trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft — headlining their rotation, as well as a rookie third baseman (Spencer Steer) and a closer entering just his second big league season (Alexis Diaz). None of that quintet had more than a year of Major League service time. Ashcraft and Steer both had less than one full year. The Reds might’ve spent a small amount on veteran free agents this offseason (e.g. Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali, Luke Maile), but one look at the roster left little doubt this was a rebuilding team.

Six weeks into the season, the youth movement has brokered mixed results. Greene and Ashcraft (Sunday’s meltdown notwithstanding) have both looked impressive in the rotation. Diaz is doing his best impression of his older brother, striking out a stunning 51.2% of his opponents through 11 innings. Steer has delivered roughly league-average offense and shown some versatility, beginning to take regular reps at first base with Myers and Joey Votto both on the injured list. Lodolo has been extraordinarily homer-prone, but his strikeout and walk rates are every bit as encouraging as they were during a strong rookie effort in 2022.

Cincinnati fans are getting a glimpse at the hopeful future core for the Reds, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more youthful reinforcements are — or should be — on the horizon. The Reds have every reason to let Lodolo try to sort through his homer woes at the big league level, but the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation are another story entirely. Those have been occupied by veterans Weaver and the just minutes-ago-DFA’d Luis Cessa for the bulk of the season, and the results rather unsurprisingly haven’t been good.

Weaver has made just three starts to Cessa’s six, and while a 7.88 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence, Weaver has at least posted a 26% strikeout rate against an 8.2% walk rate. They’re both better than average marks — the strikeout rate in particular. Like Lodolo (and many other Reds hurlers who have the challenge of pitching at Great American Ball Park), Weaver’s home run rate is through the roof (2.81 HR/9). The Reds spent a couple million dollars to sign him as a free agent, and Weaver’s only had three starts. Ugly as they’ve been, he’ll get another few turns, even if the leash is (or should be) short.

Cessa’s spot seemed far more vulnerable. (Hence the bulk of this piece already having been written just prior to his DFA… thanks for prompting some last-minute rewrites, Reds!) In six starts, he allowed an earned run per inning, walked more batters than he struck out, and was moved to the bullpen for his most recent appearance. He didn’t start a single game from 2019-21, making the Reds’ decision to move him into the rotation last year and then to guarantee him a 2023 rotation spot a rather peculiar one.

Cessa posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in ten starts last season with an even less-encouraging 5.02 FIP. That might’ve made him a fine sixth or seventh starting option, but the Reds opted to only sign Weaver this offseason and leave the rotation largely unaddressed. Veteran Chase Anderson was re-signed on a minor league deal, but he’s already been traded to the Rays after triggering an opt-out in his contract. Right-hander Ben Lively was re-signed to a minor league deal, and the Reds selected him to the roster today alongside fellow offseason journeyman pickup Kevin Herget.

It’s not clear whether the 31-year-old Lively and 32-year-old Herget are short-term stopgaps or will get an actual look on the roster in the coming weeks, but even before this afternoon’s slate of moves, the crux of this argument has been that the Reds have more interesting options than the veterans they’ve plugged into the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation thus far. The promotions of Lively and Herget don’t change that.

Lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Levi Stoudt both came to Cincinnati by way of trade with the Mariners, coming over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo trades, respectively. Neither has dominated in Triple-A to begin the season, though Stoudt did make his MLB debut in a spot start last month. Williamson, currently sporting an ERA north of 7.00 in 28 1/3 Triple-A frames, has not yet pitched in the big leagues. It’s worth noting that nearly all the damage against him came in one start, where he did not escape the first inning against the Cubs’ top affiliate and was thrashed for eight runs. Stoudt needs to improve upon the poor command he’s shown in Louisville before getting a real look in the big leagues.

The Reds have one particular minor league powerhouse who looks on the cusp of MLB readiness, however: left-hander Andrew Abbott. The 2021 second-round pick has skyrocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double-A last year as a 23-year-old in his first full professional season and then overpowering both Double-A and Triple-A opponents early in the 2023 season.

Abbott opened the current campaign with 15 2/3 innings in Double-A, allowing just two runs on six hits and three walks with an astonishing 36 strikeouts. That’s not a typo; Abbott fanned a comical 64.3% of his opponents in those three Double-A starts before the Reds rather naturally jumped him to Triple-A. He hasn’t continued on at that deity-like pace at the top minor league level … he’s “merely” posted a 3.00 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate in another 15 innings of work. All in all, Abbott has 30 2/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball with an eye-popping 50.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.6% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9 mark.

The 23-year-old Abbott’s most recent start just happened to fall on Sunday, which would line him up to be fully rested come Saturday, when the Reds’ listed starter is TBD. That had been Cessa’s spot in the rotation, but Cincinnati opted to start Ashcraft on four days’ rest instead of giving Cessa his usual turn. (Ashcraft was blasted for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.) It’s always possible that they’ll look into alternatives for the time being, preferring to give Abbott more seasoning and hold off on adding him to the 40-man roster just yet. But each of Williamson (May 5), Stoudt (May 6) and Herget (May 4) saw their most recent starts fall on a date that would line them up to pitch between now and Saturday.

If the Reds are indeed going to tap into their farm to make a change, Abbott is not only the best option in terms of 2023 performance — he’s also the starter who’s likeliest to be on full rest and ready to make that start. Even if Cincinnati bypasses him in favor of Lively or Herget this coming weekend, he’s already made the clear case that he’s a better option for the big league rotation than either Weaver or Cessa. And assuming Williamson can continue to shake off the impact of that catastrophic outing against the Cubs’ Iowa club — he rebounded with a quality start in his next appearance — it might not be long before either he or Stoudt stakes a claim to the fifth spot.

Going with a youth-forward rotation obviously has its pitfalls, but the Reds’ lack of offseason activity on the starting pitching front — both in terms of established big league starters and even in terms of veteran depth on minor league deals — clearly set the stage for that to eventually be the case in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine the Reds rolling with five starters who have under two years of big league service by sometime next month, if not sooner. The next step in the process should come this weekend. It’s only six starts, but Abbott looks like one of the organization’s four best rotation options at this point. Today’s moves might have added some fresh arms in Lively and Herget, but plugging either into the rotation would only continue treading water as they were with Cessa.

Baltimore’s Shortstop Is Making Strides

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Jorge Mateo was once one of the top prospects in baseball. An international signing of the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, he showed obvious natural talent with blazing speed that allowed him to be valuable on the basepaths and on defense. In 2015, between Single-A and High-A, he stole 82 bases in 111 games. He only hit two home runs in that time but ran up a .278 batting average. His bat was generally considered the least polished part of his game, but he seemed to have a chance at being an all-around contributor in the future. Baseball America ranked him the #1 prospect in the Yankees’ system going into 2016 and #26 in the entire league.

In the years to come, however, his stock would fade as the approach at the plate didn’t seem to develop as hoped. He returned to High-A in 2016 and hit eight home runs but his batting average slipped to .254. Since he only walked in 6.5% of his plate appearances, his on-base percentage was a meager .306. In 2017, at High-A yet again, his walk rate dipped to 5.4% and his strikeout rate climbed from a decent 21.3% to a concerning 26.6%. That helped his batting average drop to .240 and his OBP to .288. He finally got bumped to Double-A and showed some positive strides, walking at a 10.7% clip in 30 games there, leading to a .300 batting average and .381 OBP. The Yanks then included him as one one of the three youngsters they sent to the Athletics in the deadline deal that brought Sonny Gray to the Bronx, alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian.

Though Mateo finished 2017 strong with his new organization, the concerns about his offense would be renewed the following year. Moved to Triple-A in 2018, he drew free passes in just 5.7% of his plate appearances while getting punched out in 27.3% of them. His .230/.280/.353 batting line led to a wRC+ of just 62. Back to Triple-A in 2019, he had a power breakout when he launched 19 home runs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he still walked at just a 5.1% clip and struck out 25.6% of the time.

Going into 2020, Mateo was out of options and still hadn’t made his major league debut. The A’s seemingly had little interest in giving him an active roster spot at that time. Transactions were frozen in March of 2020 when the pandemic put everything on pause, but once the freeze was lifted in June, the very first transaction in the league was Mateo getting flipped to the Padres for a player to be named later. That player was later reported to be outfield prospect Junior Perez.

The Padres kept Mateo on the roster in 2020 but didn’t hand him a regular role, giving him just 28 plate appearances over 22 games. The results weren’t encouraging in that brief time, as he walked in 3.6% of those trips to the plate and struck out in 39.3% of them. He managed to stick on the roster into the next season with the club still valuing his speed and defense, but he walked in just 2.2% of his plate appearances with the Friars in 2021 and struck out at a 29% clip, ultimately getting designated for assignment in August. The rebuilding Orioles put in a claim and put Mateo into 32 games but he finished the year on the injured list due to right lumbar inflammation.

Mateo was exactly the right kind of player for the O’s, who had been terrible for five years at that point and were still waiting for their top prospects to arrive. They could install him as a placeholder until the kids showed up and see if he did anything with the opportunity, with essentially nothing to lose if he failed. They made Mateo their everyday shortstop in 2022 and he showed that he could be a valuable player even with a poor performance at the plate. He did hit 13 home runs last year but the discipline issues were still there. He walked at just a 5.1% clip and was punched out in 27.6% of his appearances. He finished the year with a .221/.267/.379 batting line and 82 wRC+, indicating he was 18% below league average. However, he was on base enough to steal 35 bases. He also earned stellar grades for his glovework at short, including 14 Defensive Runs Saved, 11 Outs Above Average and a 7.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating, finishing in the top five among shortstops in each of those categories. The Fielding Bible Awards ranked him as the top shortstop in the league. FanGraphs valued Mateo’s season as being worth 2.7 wins above replacement, even with the subpar offense, while Baseball Reference gave him 3.4.

The O’s received some trade interest in Mateo over the winter, with clubs seemingly intrigued by how he could benefit from this year’s rule changes. The limits on pickoffs and defensive shifts were designed to encourage the exact kind of player that Mateo is, with plenty of speed and athleticism to showcase if given the chance. That appears to have proven true as he’s already swiped 12 bags this year, but Mateo has also seemingly made incredible progress with his long-standing issues at the plate. His 6.7% walk rate is still below league average but an improvement compared to his own track record. Meanwhile, he has struck out in just 20% of his plate appearances so far this year, a few ticks better than league average and far better than anything he had done in recent years.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner recently spoke to Mateo and co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte about how they were going for a simplified approach at the plate this year, allowing Mateo to avoid chasing breaking balls so much, which seems to be working. Mateo’s swing rate on pitches outside the zone is 33.9% this year, which is still a bit above the 2023 league average of 31.4% but a big drop from the 39.4% he had last year. He’s also already hit six home runs, almost halfway to last year’s tally of 13. His .304/.353/.565 batting line amounts to an incredible 149 wRC+.

His .328 batting average on balls in play is above this year’s .298 league average, which could perhaps point to some luck-based regression. But it stands to reason that he would have an above-average BABIP since his elite speed allows him to beat out more grounders than other hitters. His new approach also seems to helping him in terms of batted ball metrics so far. His 44.7% hard hit rate is almost 12 points above last year’s 32.9% rate. His 86.9 mph average exit velocity from last year is now 90.1 mph in 2023.

This is all still a sample size of 105 plate appearances in 29 games and it’s probably best not to suddenly decree that Mateo is one of the best hitters in the league. Baseball is a game of adjustments and opposing teams will take notice of his new approach at the plate and alter their plan of attack, which will leave Mateo responsible for reacting to that. Nonetheless, it’s still an incredibly encouraging development since Mateo showed last year that he could be a solid everyday contributor with poor offense. Even if he regresses and ultimately settles somewhere in between this year’s roaring start and last year’s showing, that still makes him a very valuable player.

It’s a great development for the O’s as well, though it may lead to some challenging decisions down the road. Many of the club’s notable prospects are potential future shortstops, including Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. Gunnar Henderson was once seen as the club’s shortstop of the future but has largely been bumped to third base by Mateo’s breakout. It seems likely that, at some point, there will be some kind of infield logjam that needs clearing out.

But that’s the kind of problem that teams dream about, especially coming out of a rebuild. Some of these players could be included in trades that fortify a weaker part of the club’s roster, such as their starting rotation. Mateo already received some trade interest and has likely only increased his value in that market with his hot start this year. Since he’s been in the big leagues since the start of 2020, he came into this season with exactly three years of service time, putting him on track for free agency after 2025. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this past winter, agreeing with the club on a $2MM salary, and will be able to get further raises in the next two winters.

Despite all of those twists and turns with the Yankees, A’s, Padres and now Orioles, Mateo is still just 27 years old, turning 28 next month, meaning he’s set to hit the open market just a few months after his 30th birthday. There would surely be plenty of interest if the O’s market the next two and a half years of a shortstop with a high floor who is seemingly pushing his ceiling up. But the club is right in the mix of the playoff race, currently 22-12 in the early going, seeming more like a legitimate contender as the days go by. If they can keep that up through July, it would make more sense to keep Mateo while he’s thriving and perhaps consider including one of their prospects in a trade instead. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but for now, it seems possible that both Mateo and the O’s are benefitting from a breakout that was a dream a decade ago and seemed dead until very recently.

The A’s May Have Found A Hidden Gem On The Waiver Wire

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2022 was a year of change for Brent Rooker, who was a member of four different organizations within the span of seven months.  After five years with the Twins, Rooker was dealt along with Taylor Rogers to the Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan in April 2022.  From there, Rooker found himself on the move again at the trade deadline when San Diego sent him to the Royals for catcher Cam Gallagher.  Rooker finished out the season in K.C. but was designated for assignment in November, paving the way for the Athletics to claim him off waivers.

As Rooker noted in a chat with MLBTR readers back in February, the specific timing of the trades made things particularly difficult since “one came on Opening Day of the Major League season and one was the very last deal of the deadline.  I knew it was definitely possible that I was going to get moved at the deadline but once we reached 4:00 [PM EST], I thought I was safe, only to get called about 15 minutes later.”

“The moving around is tough and its hard to get settled or into a routine with so much constant change.  That being said, its just part of the job and something you have to learn to work through.  I’m incredibly excited to be with Oakland and hope to play well and earn some major league opportunities!”

Stability isn’t usually a word associated with an A’s franchise that has made a habit of roster overhauls, including the latest fire sale that has seen the Athletics part ways with several prominent veterans as part of the latest rebuild.  The result hasn’t been pretty, as the A’s entered play today with a league-worst 7-26 record, and the increasing possibility of a move to Las Vegas has led to a lot of public discord amongst Oakland fans.

Though it all, however, Rooker has become a major bright spot in the early portion of the 2023 season.  Entering the year with a career .200/.289/.379 slash line over 270 plate appearances in the majors, Rooker has exploded to hit .333/.442/.726 with 10 home runs over his first 104 PA in an Athletics uniform.  Rooker’s slugging percentage and 218 wRC+ lead all qualifies hitters, and his on-base percentage also leads the American League.

This kind of huge breakout caught even Rooker himself a little off-guard.  “In a vacuum, the numbers themselves are more than I ever thought I could do,” Rooker told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other reporters last week.  “That’s not taking away the confidence I have in myself.  That kind of production for a month’s worth of games is probably past even my expectations of myself, so that’s been a pleasant surprise for me.”

Such high-level production isn’t totally alien to Rooker, who has pretty consistently mashed minor league pitching over five seasons on the farm.  This includes a career .274/.387/.590 slash line over 906 PA at the Triple-A level, which is a standout performance even with the caveat of 273 of those plate appearances coming in the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League (with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate).  Rooker also carried some prospect pedigree as the 35th overall pick of the 2017 draft, and he was ranked 92nd on Baseball America’s top-100 prospects list prior to the 2018 season.

Despite this resume, Rooker couldn’t really break though on a Minnesota team that already had multiple up-and-coming outfielders on the active roster or in the farm system all vying for playing time.  Rooker’s cause wasn’t helped when he suffered a fractured forearm in just his seventh big league game in 2020, and his only other extended taste of MLB playing time came in 2021, when he batted .201/.291/.397 over 213 PA for the Twins.

Still, that rough season had just enough glimmers of hope for Rooker that he told Gallegos and company that it has contributed to his big 2023 numbers.  “The last two years, I’ve just been trying to figure out how to extend those good times that I had,” Rooker said.  “I knew I could do it because I’d have weeks in Minnesota where I’d hit really well with a lot of success.  That put it in my head and heart that I was good enough to do it.  I just had to figure out how to do it for longer periods of time.”

It is probably safe to assume that some regression is inevitable, due to both Rookier’s .340 BABIP and the lack of track record to back up his early standing as an elite hitter.  That said, there hasn’t been much luck in what Rooker has been doing, as his .479 wOBA is above his xwOBA….but not by much, as Rooker’s .447 xwOBA is still in the 99th percentile of all hitters.  His barrel rate and walk rate are also both outstanding, and his overall hard-hit ball rate is well above league average.  Strikeouts have been a persistent issue for Rooker throughout his career, but cutting his strikeout rate down to even a modest 22.1% (within the 49th percentile of hitters) has helped greatly, given what Rooker is doing with all that extra contact.

Landing a possible late bloomer on the waiver wire is a dream for any team, particularly a rebuilding Oakland club in sore need of some good news.  Rooker entered the season with only one year and 59 days (1.059) of MLB service time, so he wouldn’t even gain arbitration eligibility until after the 2024 season, and free agency until after the 2017 season.  Naturally, five great weeks doesn’t automatically turn a 28-year-old player into a building block, but if nothing else, Rooker’s presence gives the Athletics something to think about as they approach the trade deadline.

To be clear, all of that team control might make it unlikely that Rooker himself is traded, as the A’s might be intrigued enough to see what they really have in the outfielder beyond 2023.  The idea can’t be entirely ruled out given the Athletics’ scored-earth approach to their rebuild process, but dealing Rooker after a big first half might backfire if Rooker does continue to be a quality regular going forward — “selling high” would perhaps become selling too soon.

Rooker has seen a lot of time at DH, and has seen some time in both corner outfield positions with borderline passable glovework.  Not that Rooker is in any danger of losing at-bats at this point, but if any of Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, or Jesus Aguilar are moved at the deadline, that just opens up more playing time for Conner Capel or JJ Bleday, with Rooker picking up any extra at-bats in the corner outfield or at DH.  Kemp and Aguilar are the likeliest to be moved since they aren’t under contract beyond 2023, and while Laureano is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he has received some trade interest in the past.

The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

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At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

Jose Abreu’s Slow Start In Houston

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The Astros didn’t make many outside additions over the winter. They were content to generally run things back with last year’s World Series roster minus Justin Verlander and deadline rentals Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini. The only significant upgrade the Astros successfully pursued was at first base. They allowed Yuli Gurriel to depart and signed longtime White Sox slugger José Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM deal.

Going to three years at a premium average annual value was not without risk. Abreu is 36 years old and offers limited defensive value. It was a bet on the bat, though it’s easy to see why Houston targeted the former AL MVP as a lineup upgrade. Abreu had hit .289/.366/.489 over the three seasons leading up to free agency. That included a .304/.378/.446 platform showing. He still looked like an impact hitter last November.

One can’t draw definitive conclusions on a move one month into a three-year contract. Yet it’s hard to envision Abreu getting off to a much worse start to his Houston tenure. Entering play Tuesday, the three-time All-Star owns a .235/.266/.269 batting line over 124 trips to the plate. He’s managed only four doubles and zero home runs. Out of 181 qualified hitters, he’s 170th in on-base percentage and 177th in slugging. This April was only the second month in Abreu’s career (July ’16 being the other) in which he played 20+ games and didn’t connect on a single homer.

The drop isn’t power isn’t a completely new development. Last year’s 15 homers and .446 slugging mark each represented the lowest figures of Abreu’s career. He was still a very productive hitter but the offensive profile was more driven by singles and doubles than by home runs.

Last year’s relative power drop was primarily a result of a dip in the frequency with which Abreu got the ball in the air. His hard contact rate was strong as ever, but he’d negated some of its impact by hitting a few more grounders than he had previously. That’s not the case this season. Abreu just isn’t hitting the ball with any kind of authority right now. His 35.9% hard contact rate is down dramatically from last year’s 51.7% figure. He has lost five MPH on his average exit velocity (down from an excellent 92.2 MPH to a pedestrian 87.2 MPH).

Abreu is more frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone. While he’s never been an especially patient hitter, this year’s 41.2% swing rate on pitches outside the zone and 3.2% walk percentage would be the worst marks of his career. He’s doing a decent job putting balls in play but without any kind of impact.

It’s coincidentally a similar approach to the player whom Abreu replaced in Houston. Gurriel has been an elite hitter at times in his career, including when he secured the 2021 AL batting title. His final season in Houston wasn’t particularly effective, though, as he posted just a .242/.288/.360 line with eight homers and a 5.1% walk rate in 546 plate appearances. Gurriel had a good postseason but the Astros nevertheless let him depart to the Marlins on a minor league contract over the winter in recognition of the middling power and dearth of walks. (Gurriel made Miami’s Opening Day roster and is off to a .306/.358/.449 start through 14 games in a part-time role.)

It’s far too early to write Abreu off. He’s been such an accomplished hitter throughout his career that it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds his stride over the coming weeks. The Astros have little choice but to count on him to figure things out for now. It’s too soon for any team to make meaningful trades. Houston wouldn’t look to upgrade over their top offseason signee after one bad month anyhow. It could raise an unexpected question mark for the club if Abreu is still floundering in six weeks, particularly since the lineup around him hasn’t picked up a ton of the slack.

The defending champions are tied for 12th in runs, 15th in OBP, and 22nd in slugging as a team. That’s in large part because of Abreu, although they’ve also predictably gotten no offense from their catchers and have been without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley all season. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up in Altuve’s absence but certainly doesn’t offer the kind of power potential of Houston’s star second baseman.

Altuve seems likely to miss another month as recovers from his late-spring thumb fracture. Houston’s rotation has also taken some injury hits over the past couple days. They’re certainly not in dire straits — they enter play with a 16-13 record and are only a game and a half behind their in-state rivals in the AL West — but they’ll need more out of Abreu to help weather some of their poor health luck thus far.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

Matt Strahm Is Taking Advantage Of His Starting Opportunity

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Left-hander Matt Strahm missed part of 2020 and most of 2021 due to knee injuries but bounced back with a solid season for the Red Sox in 2022. He made 50 appearances out of their bullpen, tossing 44 2/3 innings with a 3.83 ERA. His 36.8% ground ball rate was below average but he struck out a strong 26.9% of batters faced while posting an 8.8% walk rate that was very close to league average.

He reached free agency at the end of the year and was in a mix of left-handed relievers that also included such names as Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Zack Britton. Strahm was the first of that group to sign, with he and the Phillies reaching a deal in early December for two years and a $15MM guarantee. A few weeks later, Rogers signed with the Giants for three years and $33MM, naturally topping Strahm given his longer track record as an effective reliever. He came into this year with 385 relief appearances compared to Strahm’s 182.

The rest of the group would linger on the market for a while as the season approached. Like Rogers, they each generally had longer résumés than Strahm in terms of working as effective relievers. Strahm oscillated between starting and relieving in his first few seasons and then dealt with injuries a bit in 2020 and more so in 2021. That meant he really only had one full season of healthy and effective work as a reliever. But then someone like Chafin, as an example, had essentially a decade-long track record of success in the job. He finished 2022 with a career ERA of 3.23 over 476 appearances dating back to 2014. Hand was fairly similar, having been a solid bullpen option since converting to relief full-time in 2016. Chapman had a rough 2022 but had previously been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport for quite a long time. Same for Britton prior to his recent injury woes. Moore had only recently joined the bullpen but had previously been a top prospect and had some success as a starter in the past.

Chapman went on to sign with the Royals at the end of January for one year and $3.75MM plus incentives. Chafin agreed with the Diamondbacks in mid-February for one year and $6.25MM with incentives and a club option for 2024. Moore agreed with the Angels shortly after that for one year and $7.55MM. Hand stayed unsigned until early March when Spring Training was well underway, agreeing with the Rockies for one year and $2MM plus incentives. Britton remains unsigned to this day.

Although it was a bit surprising to see Strahm top everyone in that group, his 2023 perhaps illustrates why that might have been the case. Though he was producing quality work as a reliever with the Red Sox last year, he consistently spoke about wanting to regain a job as a starter in the future. Strahm had made 25 starts earlier in his career with the Padres but never quite stuck, both due to injuries and some inconsistent performances. The Phillies didn’t seem to be planning on giving him that job initially, but he has it now.

The Phils went into Spring Training with a planned rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez in the front four. The fifth spot was left open to be a competition, with the hope being that top prospect Andrew Painter could seize the job in camp even though he wouldn’t turn 20 years old until early April. If that didn’t come to fruition, the club had fallback options such as Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez.

Unfortunately, Painter would be shut down in early March with a sprain of the UCL in his elbow. His shutdown period is over but he’s still ramping up arm strength and has yet to appear in an official game this year. In addition to that, Suárez dealt with some forearm inflammation in spring and still hasn’t made his season debut, just starting a rehab assignment last week. Sánchez was also shut down in the spring, with triceps soreness being the culprit in his case. That left two openings in the rotation next to Nola, Wheeler and Walker.

One of those openings was filled by Strahm and he has responded admirably so far. He made one relief appearance at the start of the year but has since made five starts. In 23 1/3 combined innings on the year, he has a 2.31 ERA. His 38.8% ground ball is still below average, but he’s striking out an incredible 36% of batters faced while walking just 7.9%. His .213 batting average on balls in play and 81.4% strand rate have surely helped him out a bit, but he still has a really strong 2.78 FIP and 2.94 SIERA that point to quality results even with some regression in terms of luck. Starters generally need to have a more diverse pitch arsenal than relievers and Strahm is showing that here this year. All four of the pitches he’s throwing have negative run values this season, with Statcast giving him a -1 on his cutter and sinker, a -3 on his four-seam and a -4 on his slider.

This is all a very small sample and we can’t draw too many long-term conclusions from it, but this illustrates why Strahm’s market wasn’t exactly the same as the other lefties mentioned earlier. Though the Phils went into the spring with the intention of having Strahm work out of the bullpen, they must have at least had some idea that moving back to the rotation was something they could try if the need arose. Those other free agent southpaws have all been exclusively relievers for years, except for Moore, who hadn’t really been effective out of the rotation since 2016.

Whether Strahm can keep this up remains to be seen. But if he can, it could potentially have interesting ramifications for the Phillies. Now that Suárez is on the road back to health, he should be looking to retake a rotation spot in the next few weeks. Falter still has an option year remaining and a 5.01 ERA through six starts this year. Perhaps he winds up back in the minors and Strahm keeps his spot even after Suárez is healthy. Sánchez recently came off the IL but was optioned to the minors.

There’s also the future to consider, as Strahm has a second year on his contract. The Phillies are currently slated to see Nola reach free agency this winter, as extension talks haven’t led to a deal. That leaves their on-paper rotation for 2024 as Wheeler, Walker and Suarez. Painter could theoretically take a spot if he can return to health and get back on track, but he’s still a wild card given his youth and lack of experience. Falter could be in the mix as well but Strahm could give the club an extra layer of rotation security if he continues proving himself this year.

There could also be significant fallout for Strahm personally, as he’s slated to return to the open market after 2024. His market will be somewhat limited as he’s already 31 years old and will be marketing his age-33 season at that time, but effective starters can still get paid at that age or older. There’s obviously aces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander who are getting paid extremely well into their late 30s and early 40s, but solid mid-rotation guy Chris Bassitt just got three years and $63MM going into his age-34 season.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

14 Veterans With Upcoming Opportunity To Opt Out Of Minor League Deals

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As part of last year’s collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day now receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not added to the majors.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. As that second opt-out date nears, it’s worth checking in on a few players with opt-outs under the CBA. We’ll also look at a few players who don’t meet those criteria but reportedly negotiated forthcoming opt-out dates into their own non-roster deals.

Anderson was an Article XX(B) player who passed on his first opt-out chance. The 35-year-old finished last season with nine outings (seven starts) for the Reds, allowing a 6.38 ERA in 24 innings. He returned to the organization and has started five games for their top affiliate in Louisville. He carries a 4.30 ERA over 23 frames with a modest 19% strikeout rate while walking 13% of opposing hitters. It’s not a great first few weeks but the Reds don’t have much certainty behind their top three starters. Connor Overton is on the injured list, while Luis Cessa has been rocked for 20 runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Devenski also forewent his Spring Training opt-out. The 32-year-old accepted a season-opening assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s made seven relief outings. In nine innings, he’s allowed four runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. It’s a decent if not overwhelming performance. Devenski was an elite multi-inning relief option for the Astros between 2016-17 but he’s battled injuries and performance fluctuations since then. He threw 14 2/3 MLB innings between the Diamondbacks and Phillies last year, allowing an 8.59 ERA with a modest 17.5% strikeout rate but only walking one of the 67 hitters he faced. The Angels have a number of relievers who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, perhaps reducing their flexibility to add another player of that ilk in Devenski.

Doolittle bypassed an opt-out chance in Spring Training after returning to Washington over the winter. He’s spent the year on the injured list as he continues to work back from last summer’s internal brace UCL surgery. The veteran threw a live batting practice session this week and could see game action in the not too distant future (via MLB.com injury tracker). It stands to reason he’ll stick with the Nats.

Duffy has spent the season on the injured list. He’s working back from forearm issues that have prevented him from throwing a major league pitch since July 2021. He already passed on a Spring Training opt-out and seems likely to do so again.

Ortega built an April 29 opt-out date into the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers earlier this month. He’d spent the spring in camp with the Yankees but didn’t crack New York’s roster and retested the market. Since signing with Texas, he’s played 17 games for Triple-A Round Rock. He carries a middling .219/.324/.313 line with one homer through 74 plate appearances. He’s drawing plenty of walks but not hitting for power and striking out a little more often than he has in recent seasons.

The lefty-hitting outfielder is coming off a reasonable .241/.331/.358 showing for the Cubs in 2022. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but is probably best suited for a corner. Texas has gotten strong early-season work from minor league signee Travis Jankowski and has Adolis García and Leody Taveras penciled into starting roles. The Rangers haven’t gotten much production from any of their left field options aside from Jankowski, though, and it’s questionable how long the journeyman can keep up anything approaching his current .340/.415/.447 pace.

Gamel, 31 next month, has been a decent left-handed platoon outfielder in recent seasons. He typically hits around a league average level, including a .232/.324/.369 line over 115 games with the Pirates last year. After signing with the Rays, he’s off to a .217/.316/.406 start in 79 plate appearances at Triple-A Durham. He’s walking at a customarily strong 12.7% clip but has gone down on strikes in more than 30% of his trips. Left-handed hitting outfielders Josh Lowe and Luke Raley have had excellent starts for Tampa Bay, which could make it hard for Gamel to play his way into the MLB mix anytime soon.

Hamilton, 32, returned for a second stint with the White Sox over the winter. He’s appeared in 14 games with Triple-A Charlotte but hasn’t produced, stumbling to a .150/.292/.175 batting line. The speedster has been successful on all three of his stolen base attempts but likely needs to show a little more at the plate to earn the pinch-running/defensive specialist role he’s played for a number of teams over the past four-plus seasons. The White Sox recently selected Adam Haseley onto the MLB roster to serve as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Hoffman didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out for Article XX(B) free agents. He negotiated opt-out chances on both May 1 and July 1 into his April deal with the Phils. The righty has pitched seven times for their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley, allowing eight runs across 7 2/3 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters but handed out five free passes. Hoffman had a reasonable 3.83 ERA through 44 2/3 frames for the Reds last season, missing bats at a league average rate but walking nearly 12% of his opponents. The Phils only have three out of eight relievers who can’t be optioned to the minors, giving them some room to add the veteran if they’re intrigued by Hoffman’s swing-and-miss capabilities.

Naquin was an Article XX(B) free agent who didn’t break camp with the big league club. He split the 2022 campaign between the Reds and Mets, combining to hit .229/.282/.423 over 334 trips to the plate. The left-handed hitting outfielder has played in 12 games for Triple-A Nashville, hitting .273/.319/.409. He’s not hitting for much power in the early going and has never been one to take too many walks. Naquin spent a bit of time on the injured list this month but was reinstated earlier in the week.

Milwaukee lost center fielder Garrett Mitchell to a season-threatening shoulder procedure and has gotten middling offensive production from rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer. They’re soon to welcome Tyrone Taylor back from the injured list, though, and Naquin’s serviceable but unexceptional Triple-A production may not force the front office’s hand.

Rosenthal has had his last couple seasons washed away by injury. He lost 2021 to thoracic outlet syndrome and hip surgery, while his ’22 campaign was wiped out by hamstring and lat strains. The Tigers took a look at the one-time star closer in Spring Training and kept him in the organization with their highest affiliate in Toledo. Rosenthal pitched twice in the season’s first week before being placed on the minor league IL with a sprained throwing elbow. Jason Beck of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that Rosenthal is headed for physical therapy, suggesting he won’t be ready for game action in the near future.

Ross is recovering from last June’s Tommy John surgery and will spend most of the year on the injured list. He bypassed his first opt-out chance in March and seems likely to do the same next week.

Sánchez’s May 1 opt-out was built into his contract, as he didn’t sign early enough to receive the automatic opt-out under the CBA. The general expectation was that the veteran backstop would play his way onto the big league roster. That was particularly true once San Francisco lost Roberto Pérez to a season-ending shoulder injury. Sánchez hasn’t done anything to force the issue with Triple-A Sacramento, though.

He’s hitting a woeful .191/.350/.213 without a home run and a 25% strikeout rate over 13 games. Sánchez connected on 16 longballs in the majors for the Twins last year but only reached base at a .282 clip. There’s a path to playing time behind the dish at Oracle Park. Still, Sánchez’s early performance hasn’t been what the organization envisioned. Promoting him would lock in the prorated portion of a $4MM salary for this season, which could prove a disincentive for the club.

Sanchez served a depth role for Minnesota last season, logging 60 innings over 15 outings (ten starts). He was tagged for a 6.60 ERA at the MLB level but performed well enough in Triple-A the organization brought him back. He’s started five games with St. Paul this season, logging 22 1/3 innings. While his 2.42 ERA is excellent, it belies a middling 19.2% strikeout percentage and a huge 17.2% walk rate. Minnesota has quite a bit more rotation depth than they did last summer and would probably look to players already on the 40-man roster (i.e. Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland) before tabbing Sanchez if injuries necessitate.

Stammen suffered a capsule tear in his shoulder in Spring Training. The 39-year-old has spent the year on the injured list and has admitted the injury might unfortunately end his career.

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