Braxton Garrett’s Rotation Emergence
Braxton Garrett did not begin the 2023 season in the Marlins’ rotation. His first appearance was a three-inning relief outing on April 1. The Fish optioned him two days later but recalled him within a day as Johnny Cueto went on the injured list.
Cueto’s injury opened a spot for Garrett to assume the #5 starting job behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. The left-hander was a quality depth option, a former #7 overall pick who had turned in a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts in 2022. That the Marlins nevertheless brought in Cueto and began with Garrett sixth on the depth chart suggests the front office had trepidation about his ability to repeat those results.
Once injury pushed Garrett back into the starting mix, he didn’t look back. The 26-year-old made 30 starts from that point forward, ultimately logging 159 2/3 innings. He finished third on the team in workload while allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. That came with above-average peripherals across the board. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect.
It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. The well-rounded arsenal allowed him to avoid significant platoon issues. Garrett’s strikeout and walk profile was better than average regardless of the opponent’s handedness. Right-handed hitters made more authoritative contact than southpaws, but neither side produced much overall.
Garrett’s development into a mid-rotation arm has taken on extra importance given other setbacks in the starting staff. Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October, knocking him out of the mix for 2024. Rogers injured his left biceps and right (non-throwing shoulder), limiting him to four starts. Cabrera, a former top pitching prospect, has shown promising stuff but continues to issue plenty of free passes. The Cueto signing didn’t work.
Miami’s rotation was productive overall. Luzardo also took a step forward, while 20-year-old Eury Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts as a rookie. That the Fish turned to Garrett in the second game of their Wild Card series with the Phillies still hints at both the strength of his ’23 campaign and some of the hits Miami took above him on the season-opening depth chart.
Garrett has just under two years of major league service. He’ll surely qualify for early arbitration next offseason as a Super Two player but remains under club control for five additional seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote in late November the Fish were receiving trade interest in their young starters but were likely to consider Garrett off limits. There’s no question of his place in the rotation heading into 2024.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger
For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.
MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.
Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)
Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?
Likeliest Fits
- Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
- Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
- Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.
Longer Shots
- Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
- Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
- Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Payroll Questions
- Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
- Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.
The Challenge Of Trading Jake Cronenworth
After the Scott Barlow and Juan Soto/Trent Grisham trades, Roster Resource projects the Padres payroll for the 2024 season in the $154MM range. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, about $28MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold.
San Diego now has some space to add, but their series of free agent losses and trade departures have created a number of holes. With a need for at least one starting pitcher, a back-end reliever and likely multiple outfielders, the front office could continue looking for ways to create spending room. One path the front office is seemingly pursuing: moving some of the money owed to Jake Cronenworth.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last week that Cronenworth had emerged as a trade candidate. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote over the weekend the Padres were open to discussions on the fifth-year infielder. That’s to be expected, as Cronenworth is coming off the worst season of his career.
That’s not ideal for a player entering the first season of a seven-year contract. Last spring, San Diego signed Cronenworth to an $80MM extension covering the 2024-30 campaigns. It was an odd decision at the time, as the Padres already had arbitration control through his age-32 season. It looks worse in hindsight after his 2023 performance.
Cronenworth hit .229/.312/.378 with 10 home runs through 522 plate appearances. He had the lowest mark of his career in all three slash stats. That’d be more tolerable at his natural second base position, but the Friars also kicked him primarily to first base after signing Xander Bogaerts to keep Ha-Seong Kim at the keystone. Cronenworth’s hit-over-power approach isn’t a great fit at first base, where most teams receive far more offensive productivity. Among 25 primary first baseman to reach 500 plate appearances, Cronenworth ranked 23rd in both on-base percentage and slugging. His season finished in late August when he fractured his right wrist.
The Padres certainly expect better than that in 2024. Going into last season, the Michigan product had a much superior .256/.338/.431 career batting line. Yet he has also trended downwards offensively in each season since his rookie year. With Kim and Bogaerts likely to again occupy the middle infield, Cronenworth isn’t a great fit for the San Diego roster. Offloading a portion of his contract and bringing in a more traditional slugging first baseman could mollify some of their problems getting production from the bottom half of the lineup.
San Diego wouldn’t find a taker for the entire contract. Aside from a $2MM signing bonus, Cronenworth’s extension hasn’t yet kicked in. Were he a free agent this offseason, he would not receive seven years or $78MM.
For reference, Jeimer Candelario was on the open market this winter. He’s a few weeks older than Cronenworth, has nearly identical offensive production over the past four seasons, and is coming off a much better ’23 campaign (.251/.336/.471 with 22 homers). Candelario signed a three-year pact that guaranteed $45MM. Even with Cronenworth having a slight defensive edge based on his ability to play an above-average second base, he likely wouldn’t have beaten Candelario money.
The Padres owe Cronenworth a $7MM salary for next season, followed by $11MM in 2025. He’s due $12MM annually between 2026-30, covering his age 32-36 campaigns. If the Friars were simply prioritizing shedding next year’s money, they’d likely find a trade partner. Paying $7MM for Cronenworth in ’24 is good value, particularly if a team can move him back to second base. The Padres would have to agree to kicking in some money beyond the next season or two in order to reduce the longer-term downside for an acquiring team.
Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson are the top open market options. Neither is demonstrably better than Cronenworth. There are other trade possibilities (e.g. Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India) but teams looking for second base help could have to turn to the trade market.
The Royals project to turn the position back to Michael Massey, who hit .229/.274/.381 a season ago. K.C. has a decent amount of long-term payroll room and generally prefers hit-over-power, athletic players who align with their spacious home park. The Red Sox had a revolving door at second base last season, receiving a .240/.286/.376 line overall. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged last week the Sox were likely to trade for a second baseman, although he called a right-handed hitter an ideal pickup.
Seattle could look to improve upon Josh Rojas. Cronenworth would align with their goal of adding more contact if they view him as reasonable buy-low target. The Angels and Blue Jays may add an infielder, although their respective in-house options might be productive enough they don’t see Cronenworth as a clear upgrade.
Teams like the Brewers (Brice Turang), Rockies (Brendan Rodgers) and Nationals (Luis García) have young players they’ll probably try to give one more opportunity. The White Sox have targeted stopgap types like Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong. The Pirates seem unlikely to take on notable money on a seven-year commitment. The Tigers have short-term uncertainty at second base but presumably won’t want to block prospects like Colt Keith and Jace Jung.
In the absence of many clear trade partners, the Padres front office will have to determine how motivated they are to shed a portion of the contract. While selling low on Cronenworth less than 12 months after extending him isn’t ideal, the Soto trade made clear they’re open to ways to reshape the roster as they try to remain competitive while cutting spending.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market
With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.
MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.
Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.
As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.
It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.
Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.
The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.
How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?
How Much Will Yamamoto Be Guaranteed (Excluding Posting Fee)?
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$301-325MM 27% (5,257)
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$276-300MM 22% (4,180)
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$251-275MM 14% (2,663)
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$226-250MM 11% (2,056)
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$326-350MM 10% (1,933)
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$200-225MM 7% (1,272)
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More than $350MM 7% (1,270)
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Less than $200MM 3% (535)
Total votes: 19,166
Where Will Yamamoto Sign?
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Yankees 22% (3,933)
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Dodgers 22% (3,834)
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Mets 17% (3,024)
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Giants 13% (2,329)
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Red Sox 12% (2,092)
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Other (specify in comments) 7% (1,209)
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Blue Jays 6% (1,071)
Total votes: 17,492
Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade
Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.
With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.
Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.
Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.
Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.
The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).
At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.
Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.
If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.
Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.
Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…
Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.
Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.
Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).
D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.
Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.
Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.
Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.
Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.
Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.
Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.
Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.
Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.
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Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.
The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade
There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33MM salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.
It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.
What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?
Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Best Fits
- Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24MM shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
- Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50MM below the tax threshold. They’re within $7MM of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25MM south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
- Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4MM below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25MM away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
- Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52MM shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40MM south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.
Longer Shots
- Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
- Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
- Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
- Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7MM projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
- Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).
Payroll Questions
- Astros
- Brewers
- Guardians
- Marlins
- Pirates
- Rays
- Twins
While a $33MM salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and already right around their reported target area.
Other Priorities
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Tigers
Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that make them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.
The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push in to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.
Wrong Competitive Timeline
- A’s
- Nationals
- Royals
- White Sox
The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.
Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes?
The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.
The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”
Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”
As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.
The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.
Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.
The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.
But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.
By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.
But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.
Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.
What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes This Offseason?
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Yes, cash him in! 77% (6,981)
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No, hold and compete with him! 23% (2,035)
Total votes: 9,016
Can The Rays Cut Payroll Without Moving Tyler Glasnow?
Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow‘s name has been floated frequently in the rumor mill this offseason, and it’s not hard to see why. Tampa Bay’s highest Opening Day payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was a figure just under $84MM in 2022. Meanwhile, RosterResource projects the Rays for a substantial increase over that figure, with a $126MM projection for the club’s 2024 Opening Day roster as things stand. That disparity of more than $40MM has led to a widespread belief around the league that the club needs to slash payroll this offseason, and Glasnow’s $25MM salary in 2024 is far and away the largest salary on Tampa’s books for 2024.
That said, the Rays are facing a great deal of question marks regarding their starting rotation due to significant injuries to lefties Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs as well was right-hander Drew Rasmussen last season. Each of the three required season-ending surgery in 2023 and figure to miss much, if not all, of the 2024 campaign as well. That leaves the Rays with just three sure-fire starting pitchers entering the 2024 season as things stand: Glasnow, Aaron Civale, and Zach Eflin.
The club could get additional help next year from youngsters Taj Bradley and Shane Baz (the latter of whom is coming off a lost season due to Tommy John surgery in 2023) as well as righty Zack Littell, who pitched solidly as a swingman for the Rays in 2023, but the club’s many pitching injuries this past season serve as a reminder of the importance of maintaining starting pitching depth. Trading Glasnow would represent a major blow to that depth, particularly after he finished second to only Eflin in innings on the Rays last year despite not making his season debut until the end of May.
It’s worth noting the possibility the Rays’ situation isn’t as dire as it may seem. After all, president of baseball operations Erik Neander has indicated that the club would be open to running a higher payroll in 2024 than they have in previous years in order to keep more of the club’s 99-win 2023 roster together. Specifics on exactly how high of a payroll club ownership is willing to stomach aren’t clear, but cutting projected payroll to $100MM would place them 22nd among majors league clubs in projected payroll for 2024, just behind the Brewers ($101MM) and just ahead of their southern neighbors in Miami ($96MM). While the club has typically run a bottom-five payroll among MLB clubs in recent years, precedent for the Rays ranking higher does exist, as Cot’s indicates their 2010 payroll was 22nd in the majors as well.
Given the club’s pitching and financial situations, it’s fair to not only ask if the Rays can afford to keep Glasnow in 2024, but also if they can afford to part with him. While there are no simple answers to the second question, it’s worth looking into the first: if the Rays are willing to run a payroll of $100MM in 2024, is there a path to retaining Glasnow as a member of the Opening Day roster?
Glasnow isn’t the only Rays player who’s seen his name appear in the rumor mill this offseason; outfielder Manuel Margot‘s name has percolated almost as frequently as the hulking right-hander’s, with the Mets and Yankees among his known suitors. Moving on from Margot, who has posted roughly league average numbers (97 wRC+) at the plate over the past four seasons alongside stellar defense in the outfield, would likely be a must if the Rays are to trim their current payroll to $100MM while retaining Glasnow. Margot’s $10MM salary in 2024 is third-highest on the team, behind only Glasnow and Eflin. Trading two years of Eflin, who’s under contract for a combined $29MM over the next two seasons, in order to retain one year of Glasnow would make little sense for the Rays beyond an exorbitant trade return for Eflin’s services.
Margot isn’t the only outfielder who’s seen his name floated frequently as a potential Rays trade chip this offseason. Righty slugger Harold Ramirez has also seen his name floated as a potential trade candidate thanks to the similarity of his role to that of fellow slugger Luke Raley. While Ramirez’s projected $4.4MM salary in 2024 (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) is a reasonable price to pay for his services, Raley’s presence as a .249/.333/.490 hitter who crushed 19 homers in just 406 trips to the plate last season fills a similar niche to Ramirez on the club’s roster at a pre-arbitration rate. That makes Ramirez somewhat expendable for the Rays despite a solid .306/.348/.432 slash line over his two seasons with Tampa.
If the Rays part ways with both Margot and Ramirez this offseason, that would trim just under $15MM from the club’s payroll without doing too much damage to the club’s outfield depth, which would still include Raley in addition to Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, and Greg Jones. That still leaves the club with more than $11MM in payroll that would need to be trimmed to get the club’s payroll down to $100MM, however. While dealing a veteran relief arm like Jason Adam or Andrew Kitteredge could save the club $2-3MM while opening up a roster spot for a youngster like Manuel Rodriguez or Colby White, the club’s bullpen depth would suffer for it and the Rays would still need to part ways with a more significant piece.
The two most likely candidates to depart in such a deal would be outfielder Randy Arozarena and second baseman Brandon Lowe, but parting with either player opens up significant question marks within the club’s positional group. Arozarena has become a face of the franchise in recent years thanks to his steady production and postseason heroic. In 2023, the 28-year-old delivered a 20/20 season while posting a 127 wRC+ as the club’s regular left fielder, production that would be difficult to replace without adding even more in payroll than Arozarena’s projected $9MM salary. That being said, there’s at least an argument to listen to offers on Arozarena’s services given the club’s budget crunch and the fact that he figures to only get more expensive in future trips through arbitration as he enters his thirties.
Lowe, on the other hand, could be easier for the club to replace. The 29-year-old had something of a bounceback season at the plate in 2023, slashing .231/.328/.443 with a 117 wRC+ in 109 games this past year after posting roughly league average numbers at the dish in 2022. Like Arozarena, Lowe figures to only get more expensive in the coming years as the Rays hold a pair of club options on his services for 2025 and 2026, valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM respectively. With plenty of young infielders like Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, and Jonathan Aranda approaching the big leagues, Lowe’s production could be easier for the club to replace internally than Arozarena’s, as well.
That being said, a Lowe trade comes with its own pitfalls. Lowe flashed the offensive production of an impact player from 2020-21, when he slashed .253/.346/.532 (140 wRC+) with 53 home runs in just 205 games. While he’s now two years removed from that offensive outburst, it’s worth noting that Lowe has been slowed by back issues over the past two seasons. A healthy 2024 campaign could see Lowe return to the All-Star caliber production from earlier in his career and substantially increase his value, both to the Rays and on the trade market. A Lowe trade would also exacerbate the uncertainty Tampa’s infield is facing due to the off-the-field issues of franchise shortstop Wander Franco and the offseason surgery of slick-fielding backup Taylor Walls, though it’s at least possible one or both players could be back in time for Opening Day.
For the Rays to make considerable cuts to their 2024 payroll while also retaining Glasnow, the club would likely have to part ways with at least four players in Margot, Ramirez, one of Adam or Kitteredge, and one of Arozarena or Lowe. While shipping out Margot, Ramirez, and a relief arm would all be perfectly defensible actions that subtract from areas of substantial depth for the club, dealing Arozarena or Lowe would entail giving up a slugger with multiple years of team control in the midst of his prime years who the club could struggle to replace the production of. That’s a steep price to pay in order to retain the services of Glasnow for the 2024 season, particularly when he figures to depart in free agency next winter either way.
Of course, there’s plenty of factors this exercise doesn’t take into account as well. Chief among them is the potential trade returns the Rays could garner, not only for Glasnow, but also for a longer-term piece like Lowe or Arozarena. If the Rays find themselves bowled over by an offer for any of the pieces mentioned here, the options at their disposal could certainly change. It’s also fair to note that the Rays could at least plausibly be willing to carry a payroll that exceeds even the $100MM figure used in this exercise; after all, the club made an offer to superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason and had interest in dealing for two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, both of whom would have likely required financial commitments north of Glasnow’s $25MM salary. Since then, the Rays have also hammered out an agreement on a new stadium in St. Petersburg, potentially further incentivizing the club to loosen the purse strings.
Five Non-Tendered Relievers To Keep An Eye On This Offseason
Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. While being cast aside in this manner is often a bad omen for a player’s prospect, the likes of right-hander Kevin Gausman and center fielder Cody Bellinger have gone on to find considerable success after being non-tendered.
Relief arms are among the players most commonly cut loose at the non-tender deadline. Though it’s elite players on the level of Bellinger and Gausman aren’t found among the relievers non-tendered each year, teams find quality bullpen pieces among the pile of discarded players fairly frequently. Rays right-hander Jason Adam, Orioles lefty Danny Coulombe and Phillies righty Jeff Hoffman are among the pieces non-tendered in recent years who went on to have strong seasons out of the bullpen.
Now that we’ve discussed five hitters and starters to keep an eye on this coming winter, let’s turn our attention to bullpen arms. Though this offseason’s crop of free agent relievers has plenty of interesting options, headlined by relief ace Josh Hader, all 30 clubs are constantly on the lookout for additional bullpen help, more so than they are for any other position. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five relievers who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.
Adam Cimber (33)
A ninth-round pick by the Padres in the 2013 draft, Cimber made his big league debut with San Diego during the 2018 season but was almost immediately shipped to Cleveland alongside Brad Hand in a deadline deal that sent catching prospect Francisco Mejia to the Padres. Cimber remained in Cleveland through the end of the 2020 season, acting as an adequate middle reliever with a combined 4.30 ERA (108 ERA+) and 4.70 FIP across 110 appearances. The sidearming righty had a breakout season in 2021, with a 2.26 ERA and 3.07 FIP in 71 2/3 innings of work between the Marlins and Blue Jays.
His excellence continued for Toronto last year, as he posted a 2.80 ERA with a 3.47 FIP while appearing in 77 contests, the most in the big leagues that season. Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Cimber in 2023 as he was sidelined for much of the year by multiple shoulder injuries. That being said, it’s easy to see how Cimber could positively impact a club’s bullpen in 2024 if healthy, given the late-inning potential he flashed in recent years.
Trevor Gott (31)
Gott was drafted by the Padres in the same year as Cimber, with San Diego selecting the righty in the sixth round of the 2013 draft. He didn’t stick in the Padres organization long, however, as he was quickly shipped to Anaheim before making his big league debut with the Angels in 2015. Though he posted a strong 2.85 ERA and 3.68 FIP across his first 57 big league appearances with the Halos and Nationals, the 2017-20 seasons saw Gott struggle with injuries and under-performance as he posted a ghastly 6.36 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 89 big league appearances. Those struggles saw Gott spend the entire 2021 campaign in the minor leagues.
Since then, however, Gott has fashioned himself into a solid middle relief option with peripherals that could hint at something more. Gott has been roughly league average by the results the past two seasons, with a 4.17 ERA across 103 2/3 innings of work split between Milwaukee, Seattle, and Queens. During that time, Gott has posted 23.7% strikeout rate against a 6.9% walk rate, both better-than league average marks. If Gott can replicate his 2023 campaign while getting his sky-high .343 BABIP under control in 2024, he could prove to be a valuable relief arm for a contending club.
Tim Hill (34)
The oldest entrant on this list, Hill was a 32nd-round pick by the Royals in the 2014 draft and made his debut with the club in 2018 at the age of 28. Hill was a steady if uninspiring left-handed relief option for Kansas City and San Diego from 2018-22, with a 3.88 ERA and 3.98 FIP that both clocked in slightly better than league average in that time. Unfortunately, his 2023 campaign saw him post a brutal 5.48 ERA and matching 5.49 FIP in 44 1/3 innings of work.
While Hill posted a well-below league average 12.9% strikeout rate and allowed a massive 1.033 OPS to right-handers this year, his fantastic 61.2% groundball rate in 2023 and strong .223/.302/.304 slash line allowed against lefties for his career suggest he could be a solid option against left-handers out of the bullpen next year for a club lacking depth in that area.
Brandon Hughes (28)
A 16th-round pick by the Cubs in the 2017 draft, Hughes began his professional career as an outfielder before converting to left-handed relief prior to the 2019 season. He posted solid numbers in the lower levels of the minors in that first season as a bullpen arm before breaking out in a big way during the 2021 campaign, with a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings between High-A and Double-A. After 16 2/3 scoreless innings of work at the Double- and Triple-A levels in 2022, Hughes got the call to the majors and fashioned a strong rookie campaign, with a 3.12 ERA and 4.64 FIP in 57 2/3 innings of work for Chicago while picking up eight saves.
Hughes appeared poised to be a key piece of the Cubs’ bullpen in 2023 after his strong 2022 debut. While he managed a strong 27% strikeout rate, he struggled badly with his control (12.7% walk rate) and surrendered 11 runs in 17 appearances before seeing his 2023 cut short by knee surgery. That said, he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024, and could be an interesting left-handed relief option for clubs thanks to his youth and recent late-inning success.
Penn Murfee (30)
Murfee stands out somewhat from the rest of the options on this list thanks to his consistently excellent results at the big league level. Initially drafted by the Mariners in the 33rd round of the 2018 draft, Murfee debuted in the big leagues during the 2022 season and fashioned an excellent rookie campaign with a 2.99 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 27.9% strikeout rate across 69 1/3 innings of work. He followed that up with even better results in 2023, as the right-hander posted a sterling 1.26 ERA across his first sixteen appearances this year. Unfortunately, those would prove to be his only appearances in 2023 as he underwent UCL surgery in late June.
Murfee was cut loose by the Mariners but found himself claimed by both the Mets and Braves before being non-tendered by Atlanta at the deadline earlier this month. Though Murfee figures to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign, the right-hander is under team control through at least the 2028 season. That long-term team control could make the late-blooming righty an interesting pickup for a team willing to take a chance on him as he continues his rehab process.
Looking For A Match In An Eloy Jimenez Trade
The White Sox appear likely to be among the most active teams on the trade market this offseason. On the heels of a 101-loss campaign that spurred a change in front office leadership, freshly-minted GM Chris Getz has made clear that the club is operating with no untouchables this offseason, a stance the club backed up by dealing left-hander Aaron Bummer to the Braves last week in a six-player deal. While right-hander Dylan Cease figures to garner plenty of attention as a potential trade chip, he was far from the only player hailing from the south side of Chicago to land on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates. Cease clocked in at #6 on that list, but just a few spots lower at #12 is slugger Eloy Jimenez, who the club acquired alongside Cease in the deal that sent Jose Quintana to the north side back in 2017.
Getz has made no secret of the fact that Jimenez is available this offseason, noting publicly that teams are interested in his services while adding that “it just has to make sense for both sides” in order for a deal to come together this winter. While Jimenez once looked to be a potential franchise cornerstone in left field, his star has dimmed in recent years due to injuries and under-performance. Since the start of the 2021 season, Jimenez has appeared in just 259 games between multiple hamstring issues and an appendectomy. That translates to just 53.3% of the Chicago’s regular season contests over that span.
When Jimenez has managed to take the field, he’s alternated flashes of greatness with relative mediocrity; though he posted strong numbers in the shortened 2020 campaign and in his 84-game 2022 season, with wRC+ figures of 138 and 143 respectively, Jimenez’s performance in both 2021 and 2023 was far more pedestrian. 2023, in particular, saw Jimenez slash just .272/.317/.441 (105 wRC+) with 18 homers in 489 trips to the plate. While those numbers are decent, they’re a far cry from what you’d expect from a player best suited as a full-time DH who is guaranteed $16MM in 2024 between a $13MM salary and a $3MM buyout on a 2024 club option.
In spite of Jimenez’s flaws, however, there’s plenty of reason for rival clubs to have interest in his services. After all, the 2022 season showed what a threat he can be at the plate when he’s right, as he hit .295 and crushed 16 homers in just 327 plate appearances all while walking at a respectable 8.6% clip. If a club manages to get Jimenez back on track, they’d have a All Star caliber slugger under relatively affordable team control for three seasons; Jimenez’s contract includes a pair of club options for the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, valued at $16.5MM and $18.5MM respectively. Jimenez also has youth on his side, as he’ll play next season at age-27 after celebrating his birthday next week.
So, which teams could make sense as potential partners for the White Sox in a Jimenez trade? The Royals, Twins, Guardians, and Tigers are all fairly easy to eliminate due to the rarity of in-division deals involving players of Jimenez’s magnitude. The Rockies, A’s, Nationals, and Pirates are all fairly unlikely to compete in 2024, while the Yankees, Giants and Phillies are all relatively set at DH heading into next season. The Padres, Rays, Reds, Cardinals and Orioles all figure to focus more on adding pitching rather than stacking up additional bats this offseason. The Blue Jays, Cubs and Astros all appear more likely to target left-handed additions to the lineup than a righty slugger like Jimenez, to say nothing of the questionable optics of dealing Jimenez back to the north side. A look at each of the other ten teams…
Best Fits:
- Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champions figure to attempt to improve upon their 84-win campaign in 2023, and have already added Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner in pursuit of that goal. While Suarez and Christian Walker give them some much-needed thump from the right-hand side, Arizona still has a clear vacancy at DH that Jimenez would be a solid option to fill. Meanwhile, the Snakes are deep in young, affordable players like Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher who could be of interest to a White Sox club looking for upgrades in virtually all areas of the roster.
- Mariners: Seattle’s lineup took a hit in the aforementioned Suarez deal and the addition of Jimenez, who could slide into the DH slot vacated by the recently non-tendered Mike Ford, could help to return some thump to the club’s lineup. While Jimenez profiles best as a DH, he could also theoretically chip in on occasion in left field, where the Mariners currently lack a permanent solution and figure to rely on the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty, and Dylan Moore. While Seattle’s young arms are likely too valuable to deal for Jimenez, it’s possible the White Sox could target a post-hype youngster like Taylor Trammell in a deal with the Mariners.
- Marlins: Miami is among the best fits for Jimenez, as evidenced by their interest in his services at this year’s trade deadline. With righty slugger Jorge Soler having departed the club in favor of free agency, the addition of Jimenez would fill the void left by Soler at a price point not far above the $12MM AAV Soler would’ve been on the books for in 2024 had he not opted out of his deal. In exchange, the Sox could look to add one of Miami’s many young infielders without a clear path to playing time such as Jacob Amaya, Jordan Groshans, or Xavier Edwards.
Next Tier Down:
- Angels: While the Angels are surely going to make every effort to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, the expectation around the league is that he will depart for another club this offseason. Should that reality come to pass, Jimenez could make sense as a replacement DH should the club have hopes of contending in 2024 without Ohtani on the team. That being said, the Halos already largely emptied out their farm system over the summer in a failed bid to reach the postseason while Ohtani was still under contract, and it’s unclear if they would be willing to part with even more young talent in hopes of contending in 2024.
- Brewers: Much like the Marlins, the Brewers were connected to Jimenez at this year’s trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why: Brewers hitters posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 2023, including a pathetic 79 wRC+ from the club’s DH slot. Jimenez would make for a massive improvement on that, and could make sense for Milwaukee if they look to continue contending in 2024. That being said, the club has already lost Craig Counsell and Brandon Woodruff from their 2023 squad and could deal more talent before the offseason is done. Given the uncertainty surrounding the club, it’s anyone’s guess if Jimenez and his $13MM salary in 2024 still fit into Milwaukee’s plans.
- Mets: With the Mets seemingly facing an uncertain future of their own, they’re hardly an obvious pick for Jimenez’s services this offseason. That being said, Jimenez seems unlikely to require an exorbitant prospect cost in trade given his recent struggles, and the Mets could be among the teams best positioned to take a gamble on him. Jimenez’s salary would hardly be a needle-mover for the big-spending Mets, and Jimenez could be a stalwart slugger at DH for two more seasons if things go well in 2024, providing some protection for the club should Pete Alonso depart in free agency next offseason.
- Red Sox: Boston’s primary DH this season was Justin Turner, who returned to free agency earlier this month. With a hole at DH and an offense that posted a wRC+ of just 99 in 2023, it’s easy to see how Jimenez could be a fit for Boston. That being said, the Red Sox are seemingly more focused on pitching additions than adding to their hitting corps, and left fielder Masataka Yoshida‘s rough defensive metrics in left field could indicate that sliding him into the DH slot and giving outfield reps to youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could be the club’s ideal solution.
Longer Shots:
- Braves: While the Braves have a clear need for an additional bat in their left field/DH mix following the departure of Eddie Rosario, both Jimenez and incumbent slugger Marcell Ozuna are best served as full-timers in the DH slot. What’s more, the Braves appear focused on improving their pitching staff, without much clarity on their available payroll space. There figure to be cheaper options available on the outfield market than Jimenez who may better fit Atlanta’s needs, even if they likely lack the upside of Jimenez.
- Dodgers: The Dodgers certainly make sense as a potential suitor for Jimenez on paper given their vacancy at DH, but it’s an open secret that the club’s top priority this offseason is Shohei Ohtani. What’s more, the appears to be mutual interest in a reunion with DH-only slugger J.D. Martinez in the event that Ohtani lands elsewhere, meaning that a deal for Jimenez would likely be a Plan C for the Dodgers, barring a willingness to give him an everyday role in left field.
- Rangers: The reigning World Series champions have been extremely aggressive in recent offseason as they looked to upgrade their club, and without a surefire DH option for the 2024 season it would be foolish to entirely count them out from swinging a deal for Jimenez. That being said, a reunion with Mitch Garver could make more sense for the Rangers if they want a regular player at DH, while the presence of super-utility youngster Ezequiel Duran could allow them to use the DH slot to afford regular players in both the infield and outfield partial rest days. Either option could be preferable for the Rangers to committing significant cash to Jimenez, particularly given their pitching needs and the potential revenue uncertainty facing the club next season.