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Mets Showing Trade Interest In Liam Hendriks

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The Mets are among the clubs that have contacted the White Sox regarding Liam Hendriks, reports Michael Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). Reports emerged a couple weeks ago that Chicago had been discussing their star closer with other teams, though the identity of those clubs wasn’t clear.

Certainly, the Mets aren’t the only team that’d be interested in prying Hendriks from Chicago. The 33-year-old is one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Hendriks broke out with the A’s in 2019, tossing 85 frames with a 1.80 ERA to secure his first All-Star selection. He’d surely have earned another had there been a Midsummer Classic in 2020, as he finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting during the abbreviated season thanks to a 1.78 mark through 25 1/3 frames.

After that season, the right-hander made the move to Chicago. Hendriks inked a $54MM guarantee with the White Sox, with Chicago gambling he’d maintain his late-career breakout form. He’s done just that, posting a 2.66 ERA over 127 frames with the Sox. After posting a 2.54 ERA in year one, he followed up with a 2.81 mark through 57 2/3 innings this past season. Hendriks earned All-Star selections in both seasons and struck out an excellent 36.2% of batters faced in 2022. He missed a few weeks in the middle of the year with a forearm strain — an alarming-sounding diagnosis for a pitcher — but he returned seemingly no worse for wear, striking out 35.4% of opponents while sitting north of 97 MPH on his heater in the second half.

Any contender looking for bullpen help could check in with Chicago general manager Rick Hahn. Hendriks would be an impact addition to the late innings for any club, and the Mets are no exception. New York has one of the handful of relievers who might be better than Hendriks to pitch the ninth inning after re-signing Edwin Díaz to a five-year free agent contract. They agreed to terms with Adam Ottavino on a two-year deal this afternoon, and they’ve also brought in David Robertson from outside the organization. The Mets don’t necessarily need more bullpen help, but they’ve shown no qualms about going after high-end talent no matter the cost.

That’s reflected in their astronomical spending, the likes of which MLB has never seen before. New York has a 2023 player payroll projected by Roster Resource around $351MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $363MM, a staggering $130MM higher than next year’s base tax threshold. That lines them up for a projected tax bill of $92.4MM, which would put their total player spending around $443.4MM.

Additional pickups would obviously add to that figure. Hendriks is guaranteed $14MM in 2023, and his contract contains a $15MM club option for the ’24 season. That comes with a matching $15MM buyout, which would be distributed in $1.5MM installments through 2033. That’d be a small benefit, but the only incentive for the White Sox not to exercise the option would be if Hendriks suffers an injury that takes him out of action for most or all of the 2024 campaign or has such a dramatic drop in performance his spot on the roster would be in jeopardy.

If Hendriks is traded, that option vests. Hendriks would then be guaranteed $29MM over the next two seasons. Matt Gelb of the Athletic has previously reported that under the new CBA, for luxury tax purposes, traded players on multi-year contracts see the average annual value of their deal recalculated at the time of the trade. In Hendriks’ case, he’d be pegged at $29MM over two years — a $14.5MM AAV for an acquiring team. If not traded, his deal counts for $18MM against the White Sox’s tax ledger in 2023, as it was technically a three-year, $54MM guarantee at signing.

For the Mets, taking on a $14.5MM AAV would come with an additional $13.05MM in taxes, as they’re taxed at a 90% clip on all future spending. Topping $27MM in actual money annually for a reliever is something virtually no other team would do, but New York seemingly can’t be counted out of any move at this point.

Of course, there’s no indication the Mets and White Sox have made much or any progress. To this point, the exercise is mostly theoretical. New York would face plenty of competition if the Sox commit to moving Hendriks, who’s better than any available free agent reliever. Chicago could certainly elect to hang onto him entirely, since they’re working to rebound from an 81-81 showing to compete in the AL Central. The White Sox agreed to terms with Andrew Benintendi on a five-year, $75MM deal last week. If his salaries are evenly distributed, that’d push their projected payroll to $193MM, which would be right in line with this past season’s franchise-record mark.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Steve Cohen Discusses Mets’ Pursuit Of Carlos Correa: “We Got There Late”

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Just before Carlos Correa signed his 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, the Mets made an attempt to try land the star shortstop.  Mets owner Steve Cohen shed more light on that pursuit in an interview with Jon Heyman of the New York Post, as Cohen said that he contacted Correa’s agent Scott Boras an offer of roughly $300MM.  By that point, however, the Giants and Correa’s camp were already deep enough into negotiations that Boras and company didn’t want to turn back.

As Cohen simply put it, “we got there late” on Correa’s market.  “We thought maybe he might fall to us….He’s a great leader and a good guy.  He could play third base.  And he’s a great defender.”

Position changes have been floated for all of Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson in various permutations by several teams this winter, as even at the very top of the shortstop market, clubs creatively explored ways to fit these players into a lineup even if another good shortstop was already on the roster.  In New York, of course, Francisco Lindor is already locked into the shortstop role through the 2031 season, and thus Correa would’ve had to move to the hot corner.

Lindor’s presence made the Mets something of a bystander on the shortstop market, but when Correa lingered on the market, Cohen checked in with Boras to see if something could be done.  Eduardo Escobar (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal just last offseason) is the Mets’ current third baseman, but if Correa had been signed, Escobar would’ve presumably become an overqualified utility infielder, or perhaps a trade chip.

It’s also fair to say that Cohen’s attention might’ve been busy elsewhere, preventing him from making an earlier bid on Correa.  New York has already re-signed Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and brought Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Omar Narvaez into the fold during an extraordinary free agent splurge.  The result is a payroll that sits at roughly $343.56MM, and a luxury tax number of $356.3MM — both records in MLB history.

“No one likes to spend money.  But this is the price” of doing business, Cohen said, as the Mets want to win but aren’t interested in trading from their farm system.  If this means operating at a loss in order to chase a World Series, that is fine in Cohen’s view.  Also, the owner noted that the club also had a lot of holes to fill (mostly on the pitching staff) given its own extensive free agent class.  While Nimmo and Diaz were retained, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, and Joely Rodriguez have all signed elsewhere.

“My team is good.  But it isn’t that much better than last year.  If you want a team that’s good, this is what it costs.  What are you going to do?” Cohen asked rhetorically.

As much as there doesn’t appear to be a limit on New York’s spending, Cohen did say that Correa’s market conditions played a role in the Mets’ interest, as he was going to pursue a signing “that made sense…and not get crazy.”  The fact that a $300MM offer on top of the Mets’ other spending doesn’t qualify as “crazy” is yet another eye-popping example of how Cohen is redefining baseball’s payroll limits, and yet “I’ve been dealing with big numbers for so long these numbers don’t scare me at all.  It’s not like I’m not respectful about what these other teams have to deal with.”

Mets Sign Kodai Senga

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.

DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links).  Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical.  Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons.  The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level.  Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s.  Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.

It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency.  That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system.  In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball.  The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.

Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client.  Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.

Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt.  However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga.  If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.

There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders.  However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.

This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT.  The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll.  Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark.  This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.

With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler.  Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023.  The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five.  Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team.  Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mets Discussing James McCann In Trade Talks

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The Mets are discussing catcher James McCann in trades, reports Andy Martino of SNY. No specific clubs are mentioned as having interest and it doesn’t appear anything is close, but the discussions are notable nonetheless.

Going into yesterday, the club already had three catchers on their 40-man roster going into yesterday, with McCann joined by Tomas Nido and Francisco Álvarez. Last night, the club agreed to terms with Omar Narváez, adding a fourth catcher into the mix. That created immediate speculation that the club would look to move one of their other receivers, with McCann a fairly logical choice.

McCann, 33 in June, had a strong two-year run with the White Sox over 2019 and 2020, hitting .276/.334/.474 for a wRC+ of 114. He parlayed that into a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets, but has taken a dip since then. He hit .232/.294/.349 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 80 and then dipped further to .195/.257/.282 this year for a wRC+ of 59. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only got into 61 games. Defensively, he’s been a bit below average in his Mets tenure, posting a -3 Defensive Runs Saved and a -0.8 from FanGraphs’ framing metric.

McCann’s deal was slightly backloaded, as he got a $600K signing bonus followed by salaries of $8MM in the first two seasons followed by $12MM in each of the two seasons to come. That leaves two years and $24MM still to be paid out. Given his underperformance, it makes sense for the club to see if any team is willing to take it off their hands.

They don’t really need the cost savings, since money seems to be no object under owner Steve Cohen. Roster Resource pegs their current payroll at $344MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $356MM. That’s miles beyond the top luxury tax tier of $293MM. Since the club is a second-time payor, they’ll pay a 90% tax on any spending beyond that $293MM figure. Given that obvious willingness to spend, they don’t need to pinch pennies by shedding McCann’s contract, but it’s worth pointing out that those high taxes mean shedding a contract would come with double savings. McCann’s contract comes with an annual CBT hit of $10.15MM, since it’s based on the average annual value of the deal. A 90% tax on that means $9.135MM, so moving McCann and and his $12MM salary would actually save the Mets almost $20MM.

Regardless, it’s unlikely that any club would want to take on that salary in full, given his disappointing performance over the past two seasons. The catching market no longer has the most exciting free agents like Willson Contreras, Christian Vázquez and others, but there are still a few names left. Teams like the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants, Pirates, Padres, Tigers, Rays, Angels, Marlins and Red Sox either have reported interest in catching upgrades or make sense for one. They might look into McCann but they could also just sign someone like Gary Sánchez, Roberto Pérez or Tucker Barnhart. Those players would likely be limited to one-year deals at significantly lower salary than what McCann is set to make.

If the Mets are truly motivated to get McCann out of the way, they would likely have to include something else in the deal or just eat a portion of his salary. Álvarez is one of the most highly-regarded prospects in the game but is considered a bat-first catcher at this point. It’s possible the club could carry three catchers with Álvarez frequently slotting in as the designated hitter. However, four catchers seems rather untenable, meaning that McCann and Nido will likely see their names in trade rumors until a deal comes together.

Mets Sign José Peraza, Abraham Almonte To Minor League Deals

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The Mets announced the signing of five players to minor league deals, including outfielder Abraham Almonte and infielder José Peraza. They also announced the previously-reported deals for right-handers Tommy Hunter, Sean Reid-Foley and Jimmy Yacabonis. All but Reid-Foley, who is likely to miss extended time after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, will receive invites to major league Spring Training.

Peraza, 29 in April, will return to the Mets club he was with in 2021. A speed-and-contact guy, he’s stolen 79 bases in his career and has only struck out in 13.1% of his plate appearances but has never been much of a power threat. He did hit 14 home runs with the Reds in 2018, but that stands out as an anomaly compared to the rest of his career. For 2022, he spent the year in Triple-A on minor league deals with the Yankees and then Red Sox. Between the two clubs, he hit .236/.290/.354, wRC+ of 70. He’ll provide the Mets with a versatile depth option, as he’s played all three outfield slots and the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Almonte, 34 in June, has appeared in parts of the past 10 MLB seasons, though he’s been limited to part-time roles. His 82 games played in 2015 are still his career high. Last year, he mashed in the minors, getting into 80 Triple-A games and hitting .293/.417/.534 for a wRC+ of 153. He also got into 15 MLB games with the Red Sox, hitting .257/.297/.400 for a wRC+ of 93.

Almonte appeared to have a deal in place KBO’s LG Twins earlier this month, though they reportedly nullified the deal after conducting his physical. Whatever the issue was that caused the Twins to walk away, it’s evidently not a huge concern for the Mets. He’ll give them an experienced outfielder as a depth option in the minors.

Mets Interested In Carlos Correa

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The Mets are showing interest in Carlos Correa, report Ken Rosenthal, Dan Hayes and Andy McCullough of the Athletic. It’s not clear precisely how committed they are to making a run at the top remaining free agent, but their presence on at least the periphery of the market makes for a fascinating twist.

This offseason has been dominated by Mets headlines, with the team signing a number of top free agents. New York made nine-figure commitments to retain Edwin Díaz ($102MM over five years) and Brandon Nimmo ($162MM over eight years). The Mets brought in Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.66MM deal — tying the annual salary record they established with last offseason’s three-year pact for Max Scherzer. They agreed to terms with Kodai Senga on a five-year, $75MM pact and have signed smaller but still notable deals with José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and David Robertson (one year, $10MM).

That spending spree added to a roster that already had the league’s highest payroll. Certainly, the Mets faced a number of key departures as well. They allowed Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to sign elsewhere. That said, they’re already projected well beyond this year’s spending level. New York opened the 2022 campaign with a player payroll around $264MM; they’re projected by Roster Resource at a staggering $336MM figure for next season.

It’s an unparalleled number in league history, one that leaves open the question of how far owner Steve Cohen and his front office are willing to go. Cohen has proven himself undeterred by traditional spending habits, and he’s certainly seemed unfazed by the luxury tax that’s ostensibly in place to prevent any team from spending head and shoulders above the rest.

Roster Resource projects the Mets’ luxury tax number around $350MM at the moment. They’re $117MM clear of the base tax threshold and are going to blow past all four tiers of penalization. New York paid the CBT this past season, so they’re also facing escalating penalties for going over for a second straight year. The Mets will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold ($6MM), a 42% tax on their next $20MM in overages ($8.4MM), a 75% tax on their next $20MM in surplus spending ($15MM) and a 90% tax on any additional dollars. New York is currently an estimated $57MM above the fourth and final tier, one colloquially known as the “Cohen tax” after being introduced in the most recent CBA at least partially in response to Cohen’s reputation for spending. That’s another $51.3MM in taxes, bringing New York’s total projected tax bill to a staggering $80.7MM.

Of course, that’s before considering the possibility of adding another megadeal. Correa is the best free agent still on the board. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a nine-year, $288MM contract. The two top shortstops already off the board — Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts — each best our predictions, with Bogaerts’ $280MM contract coming in well above most expectations. In light of the strength of the market, Correa pushing past $300MM now seems likely, and one could argue for him to approach the $360MM guarantee Aaron Judge received from the Yankees given Correa’s youth and greater defensive value.

Even if we conservatively pencil Correa in for the pre-offseason prediction of $288MM over nine years, that’d come out to a $32MM annual salary. New York would be taxed at 90% on top of that, effectively making it a $60.8MM commitment to the star shortstop for next season. It’d be the kind of move a team has never made for an individual player, and again, that now seems a rather pessimistic view of Correa’s earning power. Certainly, the deal could push longer than nine years and lower the annual salary somewhat — Turner and Bogaerts each received 11 years despite being older than Correa — but any permutation of the contract would involve the team investing an immense sum. Cohen has clearly established himself as an owner unconcerned with precedent, and it’d be foolish to count the Mets out on any free agent at this point.

The Mets don’t need a shortstop, of course, with Francisco Lindor locked in as their long-term answer at the position. Third base isn’t accounted for by a star, with veteran Eduardo Escobar coming off an average season and top prospect Brett Baty still unproven at the MLB level. Relying on Escobar and Baty wouldn’t be a disaster, but installing Correa alongside Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Lindor would lock in All-Star caliber players everywhere on the infield.

Beyond the Mets, the Giants and incumbent Twins are reported to be prioritizing Correa at this stage of the offseason. They’re widely viewed as the top suitors, while teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have been more loosely linked to him. Dansby Swanson, who’s drawing attention from many of the same clubs, remains available as the clear second-best position player still on the open market.

Mets Listening To Trade Offers On Carlos Carrasco

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The Mets are listening to trade offers on right-hander Carlos Carrasco, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. There’s nothing to indicate that a deal is particularly close or that the Mets are actively shopping him, but the fact that they are open to a deal is noteworthy.

The Mets’ rotation has been in a constant state of flux over the past couple of months. Once the 2022 season ended, Max Scherzer was the only member of the group locked in for 2023. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all reached free agency, while the club had an option on Carrasco’s services. Given all of that uncertainty, it wasn’t shocking that the Mets went for Carrasco’s $14MM option instead of the $3MM buyout. They still had plenty of work to do, but they at least went into the offseason with two rotation spots spoken for instead of just one.

Much has changed since that time, with deGrom, Bassitt and Walker signing with the Rangers, Blue Jays and Phillies, respectively. The Mets gave a qualifying offer to deGrom and Bassitt, meaning they will receive draft picks as compensation. To make up for those departures, the club replaced them by giving Justin Verlander $86.66MM (plus a potential player option), giving Kodai Senga $75MM and José Quintana $26MM.

Despite throwing all that money around to add to their rotation, it appears the club is now willing to consider a subtraction. Per Sherman’s report, trading Carrasco wouldn’t be about the money, which makes sense. The wild spending has shot up to record heights, with Roster Resource putting their payroll at $335MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $350MM. It wouldn’t have been likely that the club would have inflated the payroll to such a degree just to start pinching pennies after the fact. The logic is that the rising price of starting pitching this winter now makes Carrasco an attractive trade piece at a somewhat nominal salary.

Spending on starting pitching has indeed been surpassing expectations. MLBTR predicted deGrom to get $135MM over three years but he got $185MM over five. Jameson Taillon and Walker were each projected for four years at $56MM and $52MM, respectively. They did get four years but Taillon got $68MM and Walker got $72MM. Sean Manaea and Andrew Heaney came in under expectations but they each secured opt-outs that allow them to return to free agency a year from now. Though if they disappoint or get hurt, their signings clubs will be on the hook for a second season.

Carrasco comes with just a one year commitment, as he’s set to reach to reach free agency after 2023. Finding a quality free agent pitcher willing to sign a modest one-year deal is tough to do. Kyle Gibson secured himself a one-year pact with a $10MM salary from the Orioles despite being 35 years old and posting a 5.05 ERA in 2022. Carrasco has a more impressive track record than someone like Gibson and could be appealing to clubs that want to steer clear of the open market.

Carrasco is turning 36 in March but is coming off a strong campaign. He made 29 starts and tossed 152 innings with a 3.97 ERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. Most advanced metrics thought he deserved even better, with Carrasco pegged at a 3.53 FIP, 3.45 xFIP and 3.60 SIERA. A .337 batting average on balls in play likely helped push his ERA up a bit. Most teams could fit a pitcher of this quality in their rotation, especially at the back end. Carrasco has some health concerns, as he’s gone to the IL for oblique and hamstring strains in recent seasons and had elbow surgery between 2021 and 2022. Nonetheless, he still proved valuable in 2022 and would certainly garner interest.

For the Mets, the calculus would likely come down to how much they value their depth. With Scherzer, Verlander, Senga and Quintana in the front four, they could rely on pitchers like David Peterson and Tylor Megill to take the final spot while using a trade of Carrasco to bolster another area of the roster. However, doing so would come with risk, given that their rotation is on the older side. Verlander turns 40 in February, Scherzer will be 39 in July, Quintana 34 in January and Carrasco 36 in March. The youngest of the bunch is Senga, who turns 30 in January. However, he will be coming over from Japan, where pitchers typically throw once a week instead of every five days in MLB. It’s unknown how his arm and body will respond to that adjustment.

Every baseball team will deal with rotation injuries throughout a lengthy season, even if it’s primarily built of young hurlers in their prime. This group will certainly have ailments from time to time as the campaign rolls along, meaning the Mets will surely have to rely on guys like Peterson and Megill even if they hang onto Carrasco. Subtracting him from the mix makes it more likely that they will have to reach deeper into their farm at some point.

The Mets still have areas they could upgrade, particularly a bullpen that lost a number of pitchers to free agency. Sherman suggests that the ideal return would actually be a young starter to plug into the farm and help them down the line. Addressing those areas could make sense but it would also deal a blow to the rotation security they have worked so hard to strengthen.

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Mets Re-Sign Brandon Nimmo To Eight-Year Deal

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Dec 10: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

Dec 8: The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo are in agreement on a deal that would bring him back to Queens. He will make $162MM over eight years, with a salary of $20.25MM in each season. He will have a no-trade clause. Nimmo is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Nimmo, 30 in March, was considered by most observers to be the clear #2 outfielder on this winter’s free agent market, well behind Aaron Judge but also well ahead of anyone else. Nimmo is nowhere near Judge in terms of power, as he has only 63 home runs in his seven-year career, while Judge hit 62 in 2022 alone.

Despite that lack of power, Nimmo stood out from the rest of the outfielders on the market for a couple of reasons. One is an ability to play center field and a second is his ability to get on base. For his career, which began in 2016, he has a 13.6% walk rate and .385 on-base percentage. Only 17 qualified hitters have a better walk rate in that time while only seven have a better OBP. His career batting line is currently .269/.385/.441, leading to a 134 wRC+, indicating he’s been 34% better than the league average hitter.

That level of production would be welcome at any position but it’s especially valuable in center field, where many teams are looking for upgrades. Nimmo was unsurprisingly popular as a free agent, getting publicly reported interest from the Blue Jays, Giants, Yankees, Rays and Mariners, with others surely interested as well. But it will be the Mets, the franchise that drafted Nimmo 13th overall back in 2011, who will keep him. Even before the offseason truly began, it was reported that the Mets were prioritizing retaining Nimmo and closer Edwin Díaz, and they have now succeeded on both fronts.

The deal is not without its risks, as Nimmo has spent his share of time on the injured list. In his career, he has landed on the IL due to hamstring strains, a collapsed lung, a neck issue and a bruised finger. Due to those various ailments, he has only twice eclipsed 100 games in a season. Most of those injuries are a few years in the past at this point, as Nimmo stayed healthy in the shortened 2020 season, played 92 games in 2021 and then 151 games this year. That means he’s been healthy for the vast majority of the past three seasons. However, this deal has gone well beyond expectations in terms of both length and guarantee. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $110MM deal but Nimmo got three extra years and an extra $52MM, meaning this deal will take him into his age-37 season.

But the Mets are clearly as “win-now” as a team can possibly get and likely won’t worry themselves with the later years of the deal for now. Owner Steve Cohen, who just purchased the club at the end of the 2020 season, has shown he’s willing to blow well past previous spending limits shown by the Mets or anyone else. The Mets had never had an Opening Day payroll that reached $160MM in their pre-Cohen history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But they moved up to $195MM in 2021 and $264MM this past season. Cohen had previously hinted at a $300MM limit for 2022 to The New York Post but that number is well in the rear-view mirror now.

Today’s deals for Nimmo and reliever David Robertson bring the Mets’ payroll for next season to an incredible $322MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. In terms of the competitive balance tax, which uses the annual average values of contracts as opposed to just the 2023 salaries, they are at $335MM. That means they are incredibly more than $100MM beyond the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. There are also three further tiers of luxury tax payments, going up in $20MM increments to finish at $293MM, with the Mets now more than $40MM above that top level.

The CBT also has escalating penalties for going over the line in successive seasons, with the Mets sure to be a second-time payor. They will pay a 30% tax on spending over the first tier, 42% over the second, 75% over the third and 90% over the fourth. That means that they are currently slated to pay a tax of about $67MM, on top of that $322MM payroll. It’s also possible that they’re not done, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that they could still sign Kodai Senga, even after the Nimmo deal.

It seems that we don’t really know how far Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler are willing to go in their pursuits of building the best baseball team possible. The aggressive spending yielded mixed results in 2022, as the club won 101 games, the second-highest win total in franchise history. However, Atlanta snuck in and nudged the Mets aside for the division crown in the National League East, which then led to the Mets falling to the Padres in the first round of the playoffs.

For 2023, the Mets were facing a serious challenge in even repeating that performance. They had a huge free agent class that included Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and a whole host of relievers. However, they have pulled out all the stops in trying to ramp back up for another shot next year. deGrom and Walker have signed elsewhere, but the Mets signed Justin Verlander and José Quintana to replace them, in addition to retaining Díaz and Nimmo.

Nimmo will now return to his center field position in Queens, flanked by Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The division will be a fascinating one to watch, as the Phillies have followed up their trip to the World Series by aggressively spending on Walker and Trea Turner, while Atlanta are still loaded with all of their young stars that they have locked into lengthy extensions.

Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the contract details (Twitter links 1, 2 and 3).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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