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Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents.  It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more.  We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.  The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Giants’ GM Scott Harris Not Expected To Take Position With Mets

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The Mets continue to search for a new baseball operations leader, but it doesn’t seem they’ve yet zeroed in on a likely hire. Michael Mayer of Metsmerized reported this morning that New York had recently spoken with Giants’ general manager Scott Harris. Andy Martino of SNY confirms the Mets were in contact with Harris but now rules him out as a potential candidate.

Evidently, that’s due to Harris not wanting to leave San Francisco. Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (Twitter link) reports that the Bay Area native took himself out of consideration for the Mets’ job due to his preference to remain with the Giants. Harris has spent the past two seasons working as San Francisco’s GM, where he’s been second-in-command underneath president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. The Mets’ top baseball ops job would’ve been a step up in responsibility for the 34-year-old Harris, but it seems he’s content with his current role.

Mayer also reports that Dodgers’ assistant general manager Brandon Gomes is seemingly out of consideration for the Mets. He suggests Gomes is likely to receive a promotion in the Los Angeles front office instead, jibing with similar reports by Martino over the past couple weeks. A former big league reliever, the 37-year-old Gomes has spent the past five seasons with the Dodgers, the last three in an assistant GM capacity.

The Mets’ search initially involved high-profile targets Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. For various reasons, none of that trio is still a possibility for New York, and Martino adds that the team has pivoted to targeting younger, up-and-coming executives in the Harris and Gomes mold. The SNY scribe adds that there are “one or two” candidates for the position already in the organization, although he rules out AGM Bryn Alderson — the son of team president Sandy Alderson, who is partly responsible for deciding on the next hire.

In one final wrinkle, Martino suggests the new hire might be brought in with the title of general manager as opposed to president of baseball operations. There’s a bit of semantics at play there, since the incoming hire would be in charge of daily baseball operations either way. Still, the potential change in title could be dependent upon whom the Mets eventually tab.

Teams are typically reluctant to allow in-house executives to interview for lateral positions elsewhere. New York was initially reported to be seeking a president of baseball ops, a higher title would likely allow more leeway in pursuit of rival GM’s like Harris. Were the Mets to hire another club’s assistant general manager, though, they’d only need to offer that person a GM title to offer a step up.

That’s a small matter, since the Mets are in position to create either role depending upon the previous title of whomever they hire. Still, the Mets’ GM/president of baseball ops twist subtly highlights how leaguewide title inflation plays into the hiring of front office personnel each winter.

Brian Sabean Reportedly Interested In Mets’ President Job

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Former Giants general manager Brian Sabean is interested in the Mets’ open president of baseball operations position, according to a report from Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News. She says that he is looking for a new challenge and is “going stir crazy in San Francisco with essentially nothing to do” and would move to New York “in a heartbeat” if given the chance. It would be a semi-homecoming for him to come to New York, as he was a scout with the Yankees before joining the Giants.

Sabean was the general manager of the Giants from 1997 to 2014 and was an integral part of their magnificent run of play in the last decade, which included three World Series championships in five years, as they got to spray the champagne in 2010, 2012 and 2014. In 2015, Sabean was promoted to executive vice president of baseball operations, with Bobby Evans becoming general manager and largely taking over the baseball decision making. In late 2018, Farhan Zaidi was hired as the Giants’ new president of baseball operations, with Sabean staying with the organization in an advisory capacity and doing some player scouting.

At the end of the 2019 season, there was some speculation that Sabean was being considered to join the Marlins organization to replace Michael Hill as that club’s president of baseball operations, though he ended up staying in San Francisco.

The fact that Sabean has such a lengthy track record would fit somewhat with previous reporting about the qualities the Mets are looking for in their next president. They have also been connected to experienced front office members such as Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. All three of those options appear to be dead-ends for the Mets, though, leaving the post open. However, the 65-year-old Sabean is also different than those three in some respects. Stearns is 36, Epstein 47 and Beane 59, making Sabean older than all three and significantly older than Stearns and Epstein. They’ve also all been actively participating in running baseball front offices in recent years, as opposed to Sabean, who has seemingly been operating in a fairly limited role for about seven years now.

Thosar’s report says it’s unclear if the Mets have reached out to Sabean. It’s also unclear if they’re willing to change their preferences to include someone like Sabean in their search. Although, considering that they keep crossing names off the top of their list, they may have to make adjustments to their preferences at some point.

Thosar also suggests that this could be a two-for-one deal, with Sabean’s hiring being followed by Bruce Bochy being brought in to take over the manager’s chair, which was recently left vacant when the Mets declined their option on Luis Rojas. Bochy was hired to manage the Giants in 2007, during Sabean’s time as general manager, and stayed through the 2019 season. He was recently rumored to be in consideration for the Padres’ open managerial position. Bochy is 66 years old and would buck the trend of teams hiring younger managers, though that trend has also been countered by the recent hirings of Tony La Russa (77) and Dusty Baker (72).

Carlos Carrasco Undergoes Surgery To Remove Bone Fragment From Pitching Elbow

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5:51 pm: Carrasco isn’t expected to miss more than around one week of Spring Training action, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (Twitter link).

1:47 pm: The Mets announced that right-hander Carlos Carrasco underwent surgery yesterday in New York to have a bone fragment removed from his throwing elbow.  No specific timeline was given on Carrasco’s recovery, except that he will “resume baseball activities later this winter.”

2021 was already an injury-riddled season for Carrasco, who tossed only 53 2/3 innings over 12 starts after suffering a torn right hamstring during Spring Training.  Initially projected to miss between 6-8 weeks, Carrasco instead didn’t make his season debut until July 30, and then didn’t look like himself in posting a 6.04 ERA.  Carrasco’s 4.44 SIERA was more flattering, but his 21.1% strikeout was by far his lowest since the 2013 season (when Carrasco tossed only 46 2/3 innings in his first year back after Tommy John surgery).

It could be that the bone fragment was a factor in Carrasco’s lack of results, so with this procedure now in the books, the veteran might be able to return to his old form in 2022.  As non-descript as the wording of the Mets’ press release was, the fact that Carrasco will be able to do some type of offseason prep provides something of a positive view that he’ll be ready for Spring Training.

In the bigger picture, of course, another injury is naturally a concern for a pitcher who is entering his age-35 season and already has a significant history of health issues.  Beyond the Tommy John surgery, Carrasco missed three months of the 2019 season battling leukemia before making a stirring return in September as a reliever out of the Indians’ bullpen, and then pitching well as a starter (2.91 ERA/3.91 SIERA) over 68 innings in 2020.

Carrasco is entering the last guaranteed season of the four-year, $47MM extension he signed with Cleveland in December 2018.  The righty is set to earn $12MM in 2022, and the Mets hold a $14MM club option ($2MM buyout) on Carrasco for 2023 that vests into a guaranteed deal if Carrasco tosses 170 innings next season and finishes the year with a clean bill of health.  After acquiring Carrasco as part of the Francisco Lindor blockbuster last offseason, the Mets are certainly hoping for more in Carrasco’s second year with the team, especially since both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard could leave in free agency this winter.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search

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As the Mets continue to look for a new president of baseball operations, there is still some uncertainty about the current role of team president Sandy Alderson.  When Alderson was brought back to the Mets by new owner Steve Cohen in September 2020, the idea was for Alderson to focus on the team’s business operations once a new baseball ops head was eventually hired.  That is still the Mets’ plan now, though their initial efforts to hire a big name PBO have thus far not panned out, as Billy Beane and Theo Epstein each removed themselves from consideration, and the Brewers denied the Mets permission to speak with David Stearns.

That leaves the Mets perhaps looking at hiring a first-time president of baseball operations, which could create an unusual dynamic considering Alderson’s continued presence and Cohen’s propensity for public criticism of his team.  As Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic puts it, “Who, some wonder, would really hold the power to make organizational decisions?”

Obviously the owner has the ultimate final word in any organization, though most team presidents of business operations don’t have a long history (as Alderson does) of running a Major League front office.  The presence of Bryn Alderson, Sandy’s son, adds another wrinkle, as the younger Alderson and Ian Levin were each promoted to assistant GM roles back in July.  It isn’t uncommon for assistant general managers to remain with a team through the tenures of multiple general managers or PBOs, but it does present a bit of an unusual dynamic for a newly-hired president of baseball ops to be essentially slotted between a father and son on the organizational depth chart.

The elder Alderson tells Ghiroli that Bryn Alderson’s presence “will not be an issue, I can assure you,” to the autonomy of any new hire.  As Ghiroli notes, however, the likes of a Beane or an Epstein would require complete authority over all baseball-related matters before taking the job, while “a first-time president may not feel as comfortable” insisting on such free reign.  It would also seem like Alderson would naturally have some level of unofficial mentorship over an executive taking over a front office for the first time, to “phase the new hire into the role.”

On the other end of the spectrum, however, is the question about how much influence Alderson might still have.  The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes that some around baseball are wondering if “Alderson is empowered to hire or even identify candidates to become the next leader of the Mets front office or if Cohen has essentially pushed aside his team president and is leading the search.”  Considering the controversy associated with Alderson’s two hires as general manager (Jared Porter and Zack Scott), it could be that Cohen wants to personally handle the process.

Adding another name to the list of possible candidates, Puma writes that Rays VP of baseball development Peter Bendix is “potentially on the radar.”  Bendix has been with the Rays since 2009, beginning as an intern and working his way up to his current role, which he has held for the last two seasons.  Given Tampa Bay’s success at finding and developing talent on a limited budget, it isn’t surprising that Rays executives have been considered for many of the front office vacancies around baseball in recent years, with Andrew Friedman (Dodgers), Chaim Bloom (Red Sox) and James Click (Astros) all running teams still in contention for this year’s World Series.

Latest On Mets, Javier Baez

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The Mets stumbled down the stretch, dropping out of the playoff race with a disappointing final couple of months. That wasn’t the fault of their marquee trade deadline acquisition, though, as Javier Báez lived up to expectations. Acquired from the Cubs on deadline day, Báez hit a fantastic .299/.371/.515 with nine homers in 186 plate appearances for the Mets.

Báez seemingly made a strong impression in his couple of months in the organization, and Andy Martino of SNY suggests there’s a legitimate possibility he and the club agree to a long-term deal relatively early into the offseason, although he cautions that the club has not yet put forth a formal extension offer. A return to the Mets would mean Báez moving permanently to second base, as Francisco Lindor already has shortstop accounted for in Flushing for the next decade.

This summer, Báez already showed some willingness to move off shortstop in deference to Lindor. While he started his Mets’ tenure at short while Lindor was recovering from an oblique issue, Báez slid over to the keystone for the season’s final five weeks. Assuming he’s willing to play second base regularly moving forward, he’d likely be a plus defender at the position who’s more than capable of sliding back over to shortstop if injuries and/or rest days necessitate.

An early-offseason strike of this magnitude by the Mets would be quite a surprise, since the club’s new president of baseball operations is yet to be determined. Signing a marquee free agent to a significant contract before or almost immediately after the hiring of the team’s new baseball operations leader would be an odd decision, but Martino writes that Báez has commanded the respect of owner Steve Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson.

Not only were Mets’ higher-ups impressed by Báez’s performance, according to Martino, they were also struck by his accountability for the now-infamous “thumbs down” saga. With the team reeling after the trade deadline, discontentment mounted and the Mets often faced plenty of criticism from their own fans. In response, some Mets players — Báez included — used a “thumbs down” celebration after certain plays to symbolically return the boos to their own fanbase. The behavior led to a stern rebuke from Alderson and a needless controversy, but Martino writes that Báez’s willingness to accept responsibility for the situation allowed the sides to put the matter behind them.

Celebration controversy aside, it’s easy to understand why Báez’s play apparently made such a strong impression on Cohen and Alderson. At his best, he’s a high-end defensive middle infielder and impact power threat, to say nothing of the obvious energy and flair he brings to an organization. In three of the past four seasons, Báez has posted above-average marks on both sides of the ball en route to campaigns valued at around four or five wins above replacement by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

That impact potential makes Báez one of the key members of this offseason’s famously star-studded shortstop class. Still, he’s not in position to land the top-of-the-market deals of players like Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, as Báez has been prone to bouts of offensive inconsistency. His numbers in last year’s shortened season (.203/.238/.360 over 235 plate appearances) were awful. And while Báez finished this past season on a tear, he wasn’t great over the year’s first few months.

In 361 plate appearances with the Cubs prior to being traded, the 28-year-old (29 in December) hit .248/.292/.484. That’s roughly league average production, by measure of wRC+, with Báez’s impact power largely offset by a poor on-base percentage. In spite of his strong finish, it’s fair to question how reliably teams can count on Báez reaching base moving forward. He struck out in 33.6% of his plate appearances in 2021 while walking just 5.1% of the time, an essentially unparalleled combination for an above-average hitter. And over the past two seasons, no other hitter (minimum 500 plate appearances) has swung and missed at a higher percentage of pitches seen.

Báez’s somewhat enigmatic combination of elite power/glovework and perhaps the game’s most overaggressive approach makes him one of the most difficult players on the market to value. Martino suggests he could land a guarantee in the $150MM — $200MM range, although it’d frankly register as a surprise if any team were willing to commit that heavily to a player with such significant swing-and-miss concerns. Even if a $150MM+ deal for Báez would appear unlikely, it seems more plausible teams could push the bidding up over $100MM. That’d still be a significant investment, whether it comes from the Mets or another club.

The crosstown Yankees could be a fit, as they’re generally expected to be involved in the bidding for some of the top free agent shortstops. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman flatly acknowledged this afternoon the club “(has) to address” the position in some manner this winter, with former shortstop Gleyber Torres now viewed as a second baseman. Martino reports the Yankees were “aggressive” in their pursuit of Báez via trade before he landed with the Mets this summer, and there’d certainly be some merit to considering another run at him in free agency over the coming weeks and months.

Billy Beane Withdraws Name From Consideration For Mets’ Job

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4:50 pm: The Mets recently obtained permission from the A’s to speak with Beane to gauge his interest in the vacancy, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). However, Beane informed Alderson at that point that he didn’t wish to pursue the position.

1:28 pm: Athletics executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane has with drawn his name from consideration for the Mets’ vacant president of baseball operations role, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted earlier in the day that the Mets were quite pessimistic about their chances of luring Beane, and the Mets have also reportedly been denied permission to interview Brewers president David Stearns for what would be a lateral move. It’s the second straight year the Brewers have denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns.

The Mets’ early reported wishlist of Theo Epstein, Beane and Stearns has, in largely unsurprising fashion, fizzled out rather quickly. Epstein spoke with owner Steve Cohen earlier this month, after which reports indicated the two agreed there was no fit in place. Epstein stepped down as Cubs president of baseball operations this time last year and said shortly thereafter that while he did envision an eventual “third chapter” to his baseball operations career, he planned to be away from the rigors of a full-time baseball ops job for more than a year.

Both Beane and Stearns, meanwhile, are under contract with their current organizations through at least the 2022 season. Beane, in particular, would’ve been an ambitious target given that he’d need to divest his minority ownership stake in the A’s in order to take a job with the Mets, where former Beane mentor Sandy Alderson is the current team president.

There’s been a good bit of speculation regarding the Mets and that trio, but given Epstein’s comments last year and the contractual status of Stearns and Beane, all three have seemed like long shots. The initial composition of the Mets’ list suggests that they’re aiming for experienced, high-profiled executives to take up the president of baseball operations mantle in Queens, but it’s not yet clear who’ll be interviewed for the post.

Former Padres and D-backs general manager Josh Byrnes, currently a senior vice president of baseball operations with the Dodgers, has reportedly been the subject of internal discussions among the Mets. SNY’s Andy Martino suggested over the weekend that the Mets could look to Brewers GM Matt Arnold, Giants GM Scott Harris or Dodgers assistant GM Brandon Gomes.

Hiring either Arnold or Harris would require the Mets to offer a president of baseball operations title, as executives are generally only allowed to interview with other clubs in order to pursue a promotion (hence the Brewers denying permission to speak to Stearns). Gomes could conceivably be hired as a general manager, although Martino reported that the Dodgers could be prepared to promote Gomes to that position within their own organization if he draws interest elsewhere. Los Angeles does not currently have a general manager under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and has not since then-GM Farhan Zaidi was hired away by the division-rival Giants.

Brewers Deny Mets Permission To Interview David Stearns

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The Mets will not be permitted to interview Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns for their comparable position, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman relays that Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio officially denied the request over the weekend, thus eliminating Stearns from the running for the job in New York.

Stearns has been with the Brewers over six years now, originally being hired as the general manager in September of 2015. He was signed to an extension and promoted to his current presidential position in January of 2019. It had been speculated by some that he might be a good fit for the Mets job on account of his Manhattan roots and because 2022 is the last year remaining on that extension. However, teams generally have to grant permission for other clubs to interview their front office employees, unless there’s a promotion involved. Since Stearns already possesses the president title being offered by the Mets, that’s not the case here. There was also a recent report that there is a vesting option in the contract for 2023, though that is unconfirmed and the conditions that would cause the option to vest are not known.

The Mets’ search will now continue with one more name off the list. The three most-cited names rumored to be in the running for the job over the past few months have been Stearns, Theo Epstein and Billy Beane, with the former two now both out of the running. The Mets could turn their attention to Beane, although it’s unclear if the Athletics’ executive vice-president is interested in the position, or if the club would allow him to be interviewed for it.

David Stearns May Have Vesting Option For 2023

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As the Mets continue their search for a new president of baseball operations, they may have to change tack, according to Andy Martino of SNY. It has long been reported that the top tier of their preferred candidates included Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. Martino reports that the Mets’ confidence of landing any of the three is apparently low, leading to them consider a change of strategy and targeting younger executives.

Stearns, the youngest of the group at 36, has had his name connected to the Mets in rumors for a while now, as it was widely believed the Manhattan native was entering the last year of his contract with the Brewers. However, Martino says it is “now believed” that the club has a vesting option for his services for 2023. It’s unclear what conditions need to be met for the option to vest, but that is a noteworthy development, if true. As Martino himself notes, this changes the calculation of how much leverage the Mets would have to compel Milwaukee to allow negotiations to take place. Many have speculated that the Brewers could allow Stearns to consider outside opportunities because he is nearing the end of his contract. But if that is not actually the case, it makes it less likely that they would be open to such a scenario.

Dodgers’ assistant general manager Brandon Gomes, 37 years old, has already been reported to be one of those under consideration, though Martino reports that the Dodgers could promote him to general manager in order to keep him from taking a GM job with the Mets. Martino also floats Brewers general manager Matt Arnold and Giants general manager Scott Harris as those that “could be in the mix.”

Brewers Notes: Hiura, Yelich, Stearns

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The Brewers were bumped from the postseason earlier this week, losing their Division Series against the Braves. Milwaukee president of baseball operations David Stearns met with the media (including Will Sammon of the Athletic and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) this afternoon to review the 2021 campaign and discuss the club’s upcoming offseason.

Keston Hiura will undergo a minor surgery on his right elbow, Stearns said, although there’s no indication the issue could affect his readiness for Spring Training. Milwaukee’s Opening Day first baseman, Hiura struggled all season. He got off to a horrible start, striking out in 32 of his first 89 plate appearances en route to a .152/.247/.266 line through early May. The Brewers optioned Hiura to Triple-A Nashville at that point. Hiura hit well in the minors, but he still couldn’t find much success against big league pitching. In 108 MLB plate appearances from the time of his first demotion on, he continued to slump to a .181/.264/.330 mark.

At this point, the Brew Crew can’t enter 2022 counting on Hiura to assume an everyday role. Still, he’s a former top ten pick who’s not all that far removed from a huge .303/.368/.570 showing as a rookie in 2019. Milwaukee surely doesn’t want to give up on Hiura entirely, and Stearns floated the idea of getting him some work in the outfield next season. Hiura has only played first and second base as a pro (aside from one 3 1/3 inning stint in left field this year), but it’d be a bit easier for manager Craig Counsell to work him into the lineup if the 25-year-old proves capable of covering the grass on a regular basis.

Christian Yelich won’t have any issue getting everyday reps, but he’ll also be looking to recapture his 2019 level of performance. The former MVP’s numbers have hovered right around league average (.234/.360/.392) over the past couple seasons. It’s an alarming drop-off, surely not what Stearns and the front office had in mind when they inked Yelich to an extension over the 2019-20 offseason that paid him $188.5MM in new money.

Between Yelich’s prior accolades and the organization’s enormous financial commitment to him, it’s no surprise that Stearns says getting the 29-year-old back on track is a key focus this winter. Yelich’s strikeout, walk and hard contact rates are still all solid or better, but his power output has disappeared as his ground-ball percentage has spiked from 43.2% in 2019 to 54.8% this past season. Stearns candidly admitted the organization hasn’t yet diagnosed a root cause of Yelich’s downturn in performance, but he expressed optimism in the potential for a turnaround and noted that Yelich wasn’t being hampered by any health problems.

Stearns’ own status with the franchise has been something of a talking point in recent weeks. The Mets are reportedly interested in speaking with the Manhattan native as part of their search for a new president of baseball operations. Stearns landing in Flushing has never seemed especially likely, though, primarily because he’s under contract with the Brewers through the end of next season. Thus, Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio would need to grant the Mets permission to interview Stearns. Attanasio hasn’t definitely said whether he’d do so, although he rather coyly responded to the rumors last month (via Sports Illustrated) when he opined that Stearns is “a great executive. … He’s also under contract with us.”

For his part, Stearns mostly deflected attention away from his future, although he didn’t sound like someone anxious to leave Milwaukee. “I think I’ll shy away from any media or external speculation other than to say I’m happy here; my family is happy here. And we’ve got work to do here,” Stearns told reporters today when asked about the chances he makes the jump to the Big Apple.

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