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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Francisco Lindor Trade

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The Mets and Indians made perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason earlier this week. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco are now Mets. They represent the biggest pair of additions for a New York club that has been expected all offseason to pursue star-level talent.

Lindor, of course, was seen as a near-lock to be moved all winter. The Indians seemingly never came close to working out an extension with the four-time All-Star. With Lindor one season removed from hitting free agency, it looked apparent Cleveland would trade him away. Carrasco was less obviously going to be moved this winter, but it wasn’t a huge surprise the Indians parted with him, either. Carrasco’s two-year, $27MM deal (with a 2023 option) marked the biggest guaranteed contract on Cleveland’s books. Lindor’s projected arbitration range ($17.5MM — $21.5MM) would’ve easily been the Indians’ largest 2021 expense.

Each of Lindor and Carrasco remains a bargain at those rates relative to their on-field production. But Cleveland’s ownership has signaled a desire to cut payroll this winter; it wasn’t hard to foresee that coming via jettisoning the team’s highest-paid players. Cleveland’s estimated $40MM payroll, per Roster Resource, is now less than half the team’s 2020 season-opening outlay (prior to prorating).

While finances were an obvious element of the trade, it wasn’t a mere salary dump. The Indians brought in four young players, two of whom are immediate big leaguers. Amed Rosario is a former elite prospect who has been up and down over his first three-plus MLB seasons. Andrés Giménez was a highly-regarded farmhand himself and had a decent if unspectacular rookie year. The pair of prospects, right-hander Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, are recent high school draftees. They rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in the Indians’ farm system at FanGraphs.

Turning things over to the readership, how did each team fare in this week’s blockbuster?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

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TODAY: “The Mets and Cubs have not spoken in several weeks,” according to SNY’s Andy Martino, and it doesn’t seem likely that the Mets will reignite negotiations about Bryant now that Lindor has been acquired.  However, there is “increasing industry chatter” that Bryant could be traded somewhere “as soon as this weekend.”

JANUARY 7: With one blockbuster trade already in the books for the Mets, could another headline-grabbing swap be in the works?  The Mets and Cubs have had “recent trade talks” concerning a possible Kris Bryant deal, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The specific timing of these discussions isn’t known, and it could be possible that the Mets were only looking at Bryant as a fallback option if the Francisco Lindor trade didn’t happen.  Still, given how aggressive the Amazins have been in seeking out high-level talent this offseason, acquiring Bryant on top of Lindor, Carrasco,  Trevor May, James McCann, and any potential other additions can’t be ruled out.

Bryant is projected to earn $18.6MM in his final year of salary arbitration — like Lindor, Bryant is another high-salaried player who is a season away from free agency.  While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer claimed that payroll considerations weren’t “the focus” of Chicago’s recent deal of Yu Darvish to the Padres, multiple reports have indicated that the Cubs are trying to cut salary, and that pretty much every expensive veteran of note is a potential trade candidate.

While the Cubs surely want a good return back for trading the former NL MVP, the Mets could have an edge in trade talks (at least in terms of the quality of prospects surrendered) simply by offering to take Bryant’s entire contract off of Chicago’s books.  Hypothetically, the Mets could also send an experienced Major League player back to the Cubs as part of a Bryant trade, akin to how the Cubs picked up Zach Davies from San Diego in the Darvish deal.

Moving an experienced player would help make Bryant a cleaner fit into New York’s everyday lineup, as the Mets have projected starters at each of his four potential positions — first base (Pete Alonso), third base (J.D. Davis), and the corner outfield spots (Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith).  It’s safe to assume that Conforto isn’t going anywhere, and the Mets aren’t likely to move Alonso and his four years of team control for just one year of Bryant.  Davis and Smith are more plausible trade candidates, particularly if the Mets were to also sign George Springer and create a further outfield surplus.  Signing Springer could also turn current center fielder Brandon Nimmo into a trade chip, but the Mets could probably like to hang onto Nimmo as a backup option up the middle.

Bryant’s trade value, of course, is further impacted by his underwhelming 2020 performance.  Hampered by multiple nagging injuries all year, Bryant appeared in only 34 of Chicago’s 60 games and hit .206/.293/.351 with four home runs in 147 PA.  That small sample size doesn’t and shouldn’t erase Bryant’s superstar numbers from 2015-19, but it certainly doesn’t help the Cubs in their attempt to get maximum value back for one year of Bryant’s services.

Cubs Interested In Mets Prospect Francisco Alvarez

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  • As rumors swirl about Kris Bryant trade talks between the Cubs and Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Chicago has a particular interest in Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.  Currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs (and probably many other teams) would like to have Alvarez in their farm system, particularly if Willson Contreras might also soon be dealt away from Wrigleyville.  In regards to a Bryant trade, it seems unlikely that New York would deal Alvarez for just one year of Bryant’s service.  Even with James McCann now signed to a four-year deal, Alvarez might still be the Mets’ catcher of the future since he is only 19 years old, so the Mets surely have their eyes on grooming Alvarez to be ready by the time McCann’s contract is up.
  • “The Reds were not involved in making any push to acquire Francisco Lindor” before the Indians dealt Lindor to the Mets on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  Acquiring Lindor to fill their hole at shortstop would’ve been quite the pivot for the Reds, whose offseason focus to this point has largely been on cutting salary, between trading Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, non-tendering Archie Bradley, and being open to trade offers for many high-priced stars.  This isn’t to say that Cincinnati might not yet sign a shortstop from amongst the well-known free agent names still on the market, but Lindor was likely a bridge too far, given the prospect cost to pry him away from Cleveland and the likelihood that the Reds wouldn’t be able to sign Lindor to an extension beyond the 2021 season.

Mets Notes: Lindor, Lugo

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The Mets won the Francisco Lindor sweepstakes when they acquired the star shortstop from Cleveland in a blockbuster trade earlier this week. It turns out that the Blue Jays finished second in the derby, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com reports. While Castrovince isn’t sure which other players were involved in the teams’ trade talks, the Blue Jays offered “what is probably a higher ceiling,” he writes. The problem for Toronto is that the prospects it put on the table weren’t that close to being ready for the majors, so Cleveland accepted an offer that it expects to be beneficial in both the short and long term.

  • Back to the Mets, who seem primed to move right-hander Seth Lugo back to the bullpen in 2021, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. Lugo has been highly successful as a reliever in the past, but he had a tough time last year after the Mets moved him into their rotation. They’re now largely set there with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson in line to comprise their top four when next season opens. They’ll also get righty Noah Syndergaard back from his Tommy John surgery sometime during the summer.

Mets Sign Brandon Drury To Minor-League Deal

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3:49pm: Drury will earn $1.55MM if he makes it to the majors, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. His deal could be worth up to $2.05MM.

8:49am: The Mets are signing Brandon Drury to a minor-league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). As Rosenthal notes, that’ll reunite him with general manager Jared Porter, who was in the Diamondbacks’ front office during the tail end of Drury’s time in Arizona.

Drury has played in the big leagues in each of the past six seasons. After a pair of decent years with the D-Backs, he’s fallen off precipitously since going to the Yankees in the February 2018 three-team trade that sent Steven Souza Jr. to the desert. Over the past three seasons (spanning 582 plate appearances), Drury has just a .205/.254/.346 line with 16 home runs as a Yankee and Blue Jay. He was outrighted off Toronto’s 40-man roster in September.

Nevertheless, there’s little harm for the Mets in bringing Drury in as a depth option. He has plenty of experience at second and third base and in the corner outfield, with some intermittent time at shortstop and first base. The 28-year-old will look to earn a role as a right-handed hitting utility piece.

Mets Claim Stephen Tarpley

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The Mets have claimed left-hander Stephen Tarpley off waivers from the division-rival Marlins, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. The Marlins designated Tarpley for assignment last week.

Tarpley entered the majors as a third-round pick of the Orioles in 2013, but he never suited up for them. Instead, Tarpley has pitched for the Yankees and Marlins, with whom he has combined for a 6.65 ERA with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and a 13.6 percent walk rate over 44 2/3 frames. He struggled mightily last year during his lone season as a Marlin, allowing 11 earned runs in as many innings and issuing eight walks. The 27-year-old has, however, managed a stingy 2.88 ERA across 65 2/3 Triple-A innings.

While Tarpley hasn’t exactly thrived at the game’s highest level, the Mets are taking a low-risk chance that he’ll at least provide useful depth. Notably, the club has an obvious need for left-handers relievers, as Daniel Zamora is the only southpaw bullpen option on its 40-man roster.

Mets Acquire Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco

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The Mets have made their first huge deal of the Steve Cohen era, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from the Indians as part of a six-player trade.  To replace their star shortstop, Cleveland will receive two prominent young infielders in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and a pair of Mets prospects — right-hander Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene.

It has been widely assumed that Lindor would be on the move at some point this offseason, as the Tribe is looking to cut payroll and Lindor is now entering his final season before free agency.  The Mets have been one of many teams mentioned as a plausible suitor, though comments made by both new owner Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson implied that the Mets would be more apt to sign big-name players rather than trade for them, due to a lack of minor league depth in New York’s farm system.

Instead, Alderson and new Mets GM Jared Porter have now swung a major blockbuster.  Financial terms of the deal haven’t yet been made public, but it’s safe to assume the Mets are picking up all of the $27MM owed to Carrasco through the 2022 season.  Between Carrasco’s contract and Lindor’s projected salary (between $17.5MM and $21.5MM) in his final year of arbitration, Cohen’s willingness to spend manifested itself in a different way, as the Mets will now upgrade their roster by taking some salaries off the books of the cost-cutting Cleveland organization.

Since his debut in 2015, no shortstop in baseball has a higher fWAR (28.9) than Lindor.  A four-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger Awards, Lindor has hit .285/.346/.488 with 138 home runs over his six big league seasons, and further established himself as an all-around talent by stealing 99 bases.  2020 was a down year for Lindor, as he hit only .258/.335/.415 over a league-high 266 PA, but that would certainly be explained by the unusual nature of the shortened season rather than a clear sign of a decline.

It is also fair to wonder if Lindor might have been impacted by the trade speculation that has been swirling around him for the better part of three years.  After some early-career extension talks with the Tribe failed to lead to a deal, it became increasingly clear that Cleveland would look to trade Lindor rather than just let him walk in free agency.  Indians owner Paul Dolan said in 2019 that his team didn’t have the resources to invest heavily in a single player, and rather notoriously told Cleveland fans to “enjoy [Lindor] and then we’ll see what happens.”

Lindor now becomes the centerpiece of an already-strong Mets lineup, as he will step in as the everyday shortstop.  Luis Guillorme looks like New York’s top backstop shortstop option now that Rosario and Gimenez are gone, though Jose Peraza and Wilfredo Tovar are also on hand.  The Mets could look to add another veteran utility infield type prior to Opening Day, though Jeff McNeil’s ability to play multiple positions gives them some cover in that respect.

We also shouldn’t assume that the Mets are anywhere near done with major moves, of course.  The club has already signed James McCann and Trevor May in free agency, retained Marcus Stroman via the qualifying offer, and such big names as George Springer and Trevor Bauer are also known to be free agent targets for Alderson and company.  Since the Mets are still roughly $32MM short of the $210 luxury tax threshold, at least one more pricey contract could certainly be added, and possibly more if the club moved some other salary in a trade, or was willing to take a one-year tax hit for exceeding the threshold.

Carrasco joins Stroman and ace Jacob deGrom in a strong 1-2-3 punch atop the New York rotation.  If rookie David Peterson can continue his 2020 performance over a full season and Noah Syndergaard is in form during his midseason return from Tommy John surgery rehab, the Mets could very well have one of the sport’s top starting fives.  On the flip side, given the uncertainty of Syndergaard’s health, how Stroman will look after opting out of the 2020 season, and the possibility of a sophomore slump for Peterson, this same rotation carries some questions that now aren’t as glaring with a solid veteran like Carrasco in the fold.

Carrasco’s salary made him a natural trade candidate, and today’s news ends his 11-season run as a beloved favorite for both Cleveland’s fans and within the Tribe’s locker room.  Carrasco posted a 3.77 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 19.2 K-BB% over his 1242 1/3 innings in an Indians uniform, highlighted by a 2017 season that saw him finish fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

After missing almost three months of the 2019 season due to a leukemia diagnosis, Carrasco made an emotional return to the field that September, and then looked to be fully back during a 2020 season that saw him post a 2.91 ERA, 29.3 K%, and 19.6% K-BB% over 68 frames.  His 9.6 BB% is a bit of a red flag, and his highest total in the category since his 2009 rookie season, though this could again be a by-product of the small 2020 sample size.

It was less than four years ago that Rosario was a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, and between his young age (25) and the flashes he has shown over four MLB seasons, it isn’t out of the question that he can still fulfill that potential with a change of scenery.  Rosario looked to be breaking out in 2019, when he hit .322/.353/.453 over his final 372 plate appearances of the season, but he managed just a .252/.272/.371 slash line in 147 PA in 2020.

As it happened, Gimenez received more playing time ahead of Rosario, and Gimenez responded with a .263/.333/.398 slash in his first 132 plate appearances as a major leaguer.  A former top-100 prospect himself, Gimenez is considered a better defender than Rosario and might be Cleveland’s preferred choice at shortstop, with Rosario perhaps moving into the second base vacancy left open by free agent Cesar Hernandez.  Since Rosario has been considered to have multi-position capability, the Tribe could also move Rosario around the diamond, perhaps a way of addressing their longstanding outfield problem.

It probably isn’t a surprise that both Wolf and Greene weren’t drafted by Alderson’s front office, which may have made him more open to moving these particular prospects.  The two youngsters were second-round picks (Wolf in 2019, Greene in 2020) during Brodie Van Wagenen’s time as New York’s general manager, and were respectively ranked ninth and 10th in MLB Pipeline’s list of Mets minor leaguers.

Drafted as a high schooler out of Texas, Wolf pitched eight innings over five appearances for the Mets’ rookie ball team in 2019.  Pipeline rates both his curveball and his fastball as 60-grade plus pitches, with his heater averaging 94mph during his brief rookie ball debut.  As per the scouting report, “Wolf’s athleticism, quick arm and clean delivery enable him to pitch to both sides of the plate and all four quadrants of the strike zone, and he earns high marks for his aptitude with regards to making adjustments.”

Greene is another high school product, and he won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until August.  Greene is a bit raw, but he already has what Pipeline’s scouting report described as “a contact-oriented approach” at the plate, plus speed, and potential to remain as a center fielder.  Baseball America thinks left field might be his eventual destination, but still ranked Greene as the 49th-best prospect available in the 2020 draft, and noted that Greene was “drawing comparisons to Garret Anderson and Michael Brantley” as a hitter.

In the bigger picture, today’s trade emulates other major swaps made by the Indians in recent years — a higher-priced star player (whether Lindor, Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, or Corey Kluber) is dealt for a combination of big-league ready pieces and younger talent.  Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have done an admirable job of keeping the Indians competitive amidst this constant shedding of higher-paid players, in part due to the team’s ability to consistent develop quality pitchers from its minor league system.

That said, Cleveland now has just over $40MM on its books for 2021, and no players officially under contract beyond the season.  At least one of Jose Ramirez’s club options seem a safe bet to be exercised, but that’s assuming Ramirez isn’t also traded at some point in the next 12 months.  The lack of both fan attendance and revenue-sharing payments unquestionably delivered a big hit to the team’s financial picture, but this even more austere approach to roster construction will surely hamper Cleveland’s chances at contending in the AL Central and making another postseason appearance.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) was the first to report that the two teams were “deep in talks” about a Lindor deal, and Passan also noted Gimenez was part of the trade.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the the two sides had agreed to the trade.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Carrasco’s involvement in the swap.  MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo reported that Rosario was being dealt, while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Wolf’s involvement, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel) had Greene’s involvement.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Lindor Notes: Extension, Springer, Jays, Odorizzi, Yankees

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The Mets swung a massive trade Thursday when they unexpectedly acquired superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland. It’s the biggest story in baseball at the moment, so reactions have come pouring in over the past several hours. Here’s some of the fallout from the deal…

  • Lindor is only under control for one more season, in which he’ll make a projected $17.5MM to $21.5MM, though the Mets will try to keep him around beyond then. Mets president Sandy Alderson said the team will “broach in the next few weeks” an extension with the four-time All-Star, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. That’s not surprising news, as the Mets had to part with four young players (Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene) to get the deal done, and new owner Steve Cohen certainly has the money to pay Lindor on a long-term contract.
  • While the Mets may be willing to keep Lindor around for the foreseeable future, it never seemed realistic for low-budget Cleveland to sign him to an extension. The club knew last spring it wouldn’t be able to extend Lindor, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who reports that it offered the 27-year-old $200MM. That didn’t come close, though, as Lindor was then seeking upward of $300MM.
  • In the wake of the Lindor/Carrasco trade, the Mets aren’t necessarily finished making big-ticket acquisitions, though it’s “less likely” they will sign free-agent outfielder George Springer because of an unwillingness to exceed the $210MM luxury-tax threshold, Andy Martino of SNY writes. New York is in the $190MM payroll vicinity at the moment, and it would like to open the season around $5MM to $10MM under the $210MM mark, Martino reports. The Mets have been tied throughout the offseason to Springer, arguably the top position player on the open market. The former Astro wants a deal in the $175MM range, but the Mets have been short of that at around five years and $150MM, according to Martino. The Blue Jays, who have also been in on Springer, are in the five-year, $115MM range, Martino relays.
  • The Mets had interest in free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi earlier in the offseason, but getting Carrasco put the kibosh on that, as Martino writes that they’re no longer in the running to sign him. The Mets are slated to rely on Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carrasco and David Peterson as their top four starters, at least until Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery during the summer.
  • With DJ LeMahieu currently a free agent, the Yankees were speculative candidates to make a deal for Lindor. While the team did inquire about Lindor before the crosstown rival Mets reeled him in, the Yankees’ main focus has continued to be re-signing LeMahieu, Sherman tweets. Because they’re so locked in on LeMahieu, the Yankees only regarded Lindor as a fallback option.
  • Mets general manager Jared Porter told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that they have five to six prospects whom they have no plans to trade. To no one’s surprise, Porter did not reveal any names, though DiComo lists shortstop Ronny Mauricio, righties Matthew Allan and J.T. Ginn, catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty and outfielder Pete Crowe-Armstrong as farmhands who probably aren’t going anywhere. They each rank among the Mets’ top six prospects at MLB.com.

Mets Notes: Kluber, Paxton, Coaches

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The latest from Queens…

  • The Mets will send scouts to Corey Kluber’s showcase on January 13, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link) and the club also had evaluators watching James Paxton when Paxton threw for teams two weeks ago.  Both free agent pitchers are looking to bounce back from injury-shortened 2020 seasons, and Kluber also barely pitched (35 2/3 innings) in 2019.  If healthy and effective, either pitcher would give the Mets another major arm to join Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman atop the rotation.  Lots of other teams, of course, would have similar hopes of installing Kluber or Paxton as a rebound candidate, though it is unclear how this interest will manifest itself in terms of a contract given both pitchers’ health concerns.  The Mets have deeper pockets than most clubs this offseason, however, and New York could conceivably sign Kluber or Paxton as something of a lottery ticket for the back end of the rotation while still targeting a higher-tier arm (such as a Trevor Bauer).
  • The Mets announced their full coaching staff, including official confirmation of new hires Dave Jauss (as bench coach) and Tony Tarasco (as first base coach and an outfielders/baserunning coach).  Ricky Meinhold will also join the staff as an assistant pitching coach, while retaining his prior job as a minor league pitching coordinator.  Brian Schneider returns to the staff with a new assignment, moving from quality control coach to Major League field coordinator and catching coach.
  • In case you missed some noteworthy Mets news from yesterday, the Amazins are reportedly no longer bidding on Tomoyuki Sugano, but they are interested in former Indians closer Brad Hand.

Mets Interested In Brad Hand

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The Mets have interest in free-agent left-hander Brad Hand, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. As Heyman notes, Mets team president Sandy Alderson said back in November the club may have been interested in claiming Hand off waivers had Cleveland parted with the reliever at a different time.

Not only did it come as a surprise that Cleveland let go of Hand, who was due a $10MM team option for 2021, but it was an eye-opener that nobody placed a claim on him. After all, the 30-year-old is a three-time All-Star who remained one of baseball’s most effective relievers a season ago. While Hand’s average fastball did drop from 92.7 mph to 91.4, he still recorded a 2.05 ERA with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate and a 4.7 percent walk rate over 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities.

Because nobody claimed him, Hand has been sitting on the open market for roughly two full months. He’s one of the premier relievers available, though, and the fit in New York is obvious. The Mets already spent a good amount of money on their bullpen earlier this offseason when they signed Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5MM contract, but doing so added another right-hander to a righty-heavy group. The Mets don’t have an established southpaw in their relief corps, so picking up Hand would give the team’s bullpen some balance.

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