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Pitching Notes: Bello, Bautista, Severino, McCullers

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With pitchers and catchers having now reported to their respective spring training sites, there’s a fair bit of news around the health of a number of pitchers around the sport.

Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello will take the weekend off throwing, and hopes to be able to throw again Monday, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. Bello apparently felt tightness in his forearm this week. Any time tightness and forearm are mentioned in the same sentence regarding a young pitcher there’s a fair bit of concern, but Bello says he believes it’s due to throwing a higher number of breaking balls of late.

In any case, he’ll be shutdown temporarily and the Red Sox and Bello will be hoping he’s good to go next week. Bello figures to compete for a spot in the Red Sox’ starting rotation this year. The 23-year-old made 11 solid starts (and two relief appearances) last season, working to a 4.71 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.

Here’s a few other injury tidbits from around the sport:

  • Orioles closer Felix Bautista told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that he expects to be ready for opening day. Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing left knee and right shoulder injuries, and has thrown four bullpen sessions since January. He’s believes he’ll be ready to get into spring matches around March 15, and will need four or five spring innings to get up to speed. Bautista was dominant for the Orioles during his rookie year last season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out batters at a quality 34.8% clip.
  • Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been shut down temporarily following him experiencing some soreness in his throwing arm (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). There’s always a bit of concern there particularly given McCullers’ injury history, but manager Dusty Baker gave reporters a promising outlook “he’s just getting treatment. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s feeling better.” McCullers is into his eighth season with the Astros. A forearm strain suffered in 2021 limited him to just eight starts in 2022, but he still worked to an impressive 2.27 ERA in those handful of appearances.
  • Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign. After missing the bulk of three-straight seasons, Severino returned to make 19 starts last year, working to a 3.18 ERA. A lat strain sidelined him for two months of the season, but the Yankees were unsurprisingly happy to exercise the $15MM club option they held over the 28-year-old ahead of the 2023 season. While the significant injury history won’t help, a full season of ~30 starts of his typically excellent output could set Severino up for a big payday next winter. “Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yankees are depending even more so on a healthy season from Severino after the news that Frankie Montas will miss the majority of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

Yankees Unlikely To Pursue Trade In Wake Of Frankie Montas Injury

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It was reported yesterday that Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will require shoulder surgery, keeping him out of action for most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. That led to some speculation that the club could try to make a trade for a replacement, but Andy Martino of SNY reports that no serious consideration of a trade has taken place and that the club will instead turn to internal replacements like Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt.

Per Martino’s report, there are a couple of reasons why the club is leaning in this direction. One factor is that they still have a strong front four even without Montas, which is certainly true. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón would be in the discussion for the best one-two punch of any rotation in the league, while Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes provide the club with solid options for the next two slots.

That leaves the club in okay shape on paper, though another injury could quickly change that perception. Cortes is already hurt, dealing with a hamstring strain that caused him to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic, though he’s expected to be ready to go around Opening Day. Severino hardly pitched in the 2019-2021 stretch due to various injuries but managed to make 19 starts last year, though he did still make a trip to the 60-day injured list due to a lat strain. Rodón has largely been healthy the past two years but has had lengthy injury absences before, hardly pitching at all in 2019 or 2020.

By sticking with what they already have on the roster, the club is showing a lot of faith in that group to stay healthy, as well as believing in Germán and Schmidt. The former posted a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year, with a strong 6.4% walk rate but a subpar 19.5% strikeout rate. Schmidt had a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with a 9.7% walk rate and 23.7% strikeout rate.

While believing in their players is one factor, Martino adds that the second factor is the club’s reluctance to cross the final luxury tax threshold, something that has come up in previous reports. Their current competitive balance tax figure is $292.48MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, within a hair of the $293MM line. Going over it would lead to higher tax rates but no further penalties related to draft picks or things of that nature.

It doesn’t seem as though there’s absolutely no scenario in which the Yanks would cross that line. Martino reports that they did discuss Carlos Carrasco with the Mets this offseason. However, that was when it seemed as though the latter club was going to sign Carlos Correa and they wanted to move some salary off their books, such as the $14MM owed to Carrasco this year. Martino’s report indicates that once the Correa deal fell through and he signed with the Twins, Carrasco was no longer available.

Another path that the club gave some consideration to was Michael Wacha, as Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees checked in on him. However, he’s now off the board, having signed with the Padres this week.

It seems the team has some willingness to add another player under the right circumstances, but the desire to do so doesn’t appear very high. Free agency still features guys like Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, whereas the trade market could theoretically have Chris Flexen and Adrian Houser on the block. It’s said that one phone call can quickly change things, but it seems the team is planning to lean on players already in the organization.

It’s a path that’s not without its risk, since the club has subtracted from its starting depth in recent years. Pitchers like Roansy Contreras, Jordan Montgomery, Hayden Wesneski, JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk and others have been dealt away over the past few seasons. The group still on the roster is strong for now but general manager Brian Cashman is aware the depth is shakier than usual. “We have a strong frontline and then obviously the next wave isn’t as strong as it has been in the past,” Cashman said to Sherman. “We need what we currently have to stay active and over the course of time, some alternative depth options might present themselves.” As they gear up for another battle in the cutthroat AL East, time will tell if they have the pieces to repeat as division champions.

Frankie Montas To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder on Feb. 21, manager Aaron Boone announced (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and Joel Sherman of the New York Post). The best-case scenario for a return would be late in the 2023 season.

Montas was already known to be behind schedule heading into spring training, thanks to inflammation in his right shoulder that slowed his offseason progression. General manager Brian Cashman said three weeks ago, however, that the damage didn’t appear to be structural in nature. The GM added that more information would be gained once Montas began his throwing program. That was scheduled for late January, and it now seems clear that things didn’t go as smoothly as hoped.

The 29-year-old Montas (30 in March) was acquired from the A’s alongside righty reliever Lou Trivino last summer in a deadline deal sending prospects Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Luis Medina and Cooper Bowman back to Oakland. Things quickly went awry for the typically steady Montas, who yielded six runs in two of his first three appearances with the Yankees and ultimately wound up yielding four or more runs in eight Yankees starts before landing on the injured list.

Prior to coming over from the A’s, Montas had been excellent, pitching to a 3.30 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates over 291 2/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2021. However, there was some concern about his shoulder even before the Yankees made the trade, as Montas left an early-July start after just one inning due to inflammation and didn’t pitch again for 18 days. He totaled eight innings and held his opponents to three runs in two return starts before being dealt to the Bronx.

The Yankees tendered a contract to Montas this offseason and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $7.5MM for the coming season. He’s slated to become a free agent in the offseason, making the forthcoming surgery an even more sizable blow both to the team and to the player himself. The Yankees won’t get much more than those eight shaky starts out of Montas now, and Montas himself will at best have a few weeks of late-inning work under his belt before heading into free agency for the first time.

With Montas out of the rotation picture and lefty Nestor Cortes dealing with a Grade 2 hamstring strain that’ll jeopardize his availability for Opening Day, the Yankees’ rotation looks much more top-heavy than it did a few weeks ago. Gerrit Cole and offseason signee Carlos Rodon form a powerhouse one-two punch, and they’ll be followed by Luis Severino, who’ll be looking for his first fully healthy season since 2018.

Right-hander Domingo German is the favorite to step into Montas’ spot in the rotation at the moment, but if Cortes also needs to miss time, the outlook of that fifth spot becomes a bit murkier. Candidates on the 40-man roster include Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and Matt Krook. It’s at least possible that the Yankees will look outside the organization, but they’ve been unwilling to cross the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier and currently sit less than $1MM shy of that mark, per Roster Resource.

Nestor Cortes Diagnosed With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain

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Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic due to an injured hamstring, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The injury is actually a Grade 2 hamstring strain, per Andy Martino of SNY, and Cortes will not throw off a mound for the next two weeks. Kyle Freeland of the Rockies will take the vacated spot on the Team USA roster, reports Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette.

Though he will miss the WBC, Cortes still believes he will be ready for Opening Day of the regular season. That’s certainly an encouraging outlook, but the fact that it’s even now a question is a noteworthy development for the Yankees. Not too long ago, they looked like they could open the regular season with an elite rotation consisting of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Cortes. However, it was reported in January that Montas is behind in his offseason preparations due ongoing shoulder issues and will potentially miss the first month of the season. With this injury to Cortes, it now appears to be a possibility that the club starts the year without two of its projected front five.

Cortes, 28, struggled in his first few seasons in the big leagues but has had a tremendous breakout over the past two. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s thrown 251 1/3 innings with a 2.61 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 31.2% ground ball rate. He reached arbitration for the first time this offseason, with he and the club agreeing to a $3.2MM salary for this year. He’ll be eligible to go through arbitration two more times before he’s slated to reach free agency after the 2025 season.

Though it doesn’t seem like Cortes is expecting to miss any of the regular season, there’s always the possibility that his recovery doesn’t go as planned. If he has to miss any time, it’s possible that pitchers like Domingo Germán and/or Clarke Schmidt step up to make some starts as long as he and/or Montas are out. There are also still many unsigned free agents that are available, such as Michael Wacha, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Recent reporting has indicated that the club is reluctant to cross the final luxury tax tier of $293MM, with their competitive balance tax figure currently at $292.48MM per the calculations of Roster Resource, though they could always pivot as circumstances change.

There’s also the trade route, with Chris Flexen of the Mariners and Adrian Houser a couple of starters that make speculative sense as trade candidates. Though with Cortes still hoping to be ready for the start of the season, it’s also possible that no moves will be necessary.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former Yankees Pitcher Humberto Sanchez

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If you were a diehard Yankees fan or prospect watcher about 15 years ago, you likely know the name Humberto Sanchez.  A native of the Bronx, Sanchez was a 31st round pick by the Tigers in 2001, signing for $1MM as a draft-and-follow.  Sanchez started for the World Team in the Futures Game in 2006, and in November he became the key piece in the trade that saw the Yankees send Gary Sheffield to the Tigers.

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Sanchez the 57th-best prospect in baseball, calling him “the young power arm New York lacked in Triple-A.”  However, by April of 2007, Sanchez needed Tommy John surgery.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman said, “I knew there was a chance [his elbow] needed to be fixed. But we looked at it long term and in 12 months we will have him back.”  As it turned out, Sanchez would need a second procedure six months later, extending his recovery timeline.

17 months after the initial Tommy John surgery, Sanchez made it to The Show.  He told Sean Brennan of the New York Daily News, “When you have surgery, it feels like your dream has died. After surgery you’re thinking your career is pretty much in jeopardy and (getting the call) seems out of reach. You don’t know if you’re going to come back.”  Sanchez made his MLB debut at Yankee Stadium, entering in the top of the eighth with his team ahead by eight runs.  He pitched a scoreless inning, striking out Paul Phillips and getting Jerry Owens and Jim Thome to ground out.

Sanchez entered another game out of the Yankees’ bullpen a week later.  Though no one knew it at the time, Sanchez had thrown his last Major League pitch at the age of 25.  He battled forearm tightness the following year, and the Yankees released him in April ’09.  He re-signed on a minor league deal and picked up 35 2/3 innings across various minor league affiliates.  Sanchez went on to pitch in the Chinese Professional Baseball League, later pitching in the Mexican and independent leagues.  Facing eight batters was not the MLB career Sanchez or anyone else envisioned, but it can be a brutal game and at least he can say he pitched in the Majors.

For the past four years, Sanchez worked as a pitching coach for the Dominican Summer League Red Sox.  At present, he’s preparing to start a logistics venture with his brother.  You can find him on Instagram @Humbe528.  Humberto chatted with MLBTR readers today, talking about his experience playing alongside Yankees legends, what his MLB debut felt like, what it was like being traded, and much more.  Read the full transcript here.

If you’re a current or former MLB player and you’d like to chat with MLBTR readers, contact us here.  It’s fun and easy, and you get to choose which questions you publish and answer.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Yankees Sign Ian Hamilton To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have signed right-hander Ian Hamilton to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Hamilton will presumably be invited to participate in major league Spring Training.

Hamilton, 28 in June, has 15 scattered major league appearances, with 10 of those coming in 2018, four in 2020 and one last year. He has a 4.91 ERA over 14 2/3 innings in that time, striking out 14.1% of hitters while walking 12.5% of them and posting a 39.1% ground ball rate.

Last year, he was in the Twins’ system but not on the 40-man roster. He was briefly added to the big league club as a COVID substitute, making a single appearance of 2 2/3 innings. He made 23 appearances for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, posting a 1.88 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate. He was then traded to the Guardians for catcher Sandy León, but the switch seemed to throw him off his rhythm. He posted a 6.27 ERA in 15 appearances after the deal with his walk rate jumping up to 13.1%, though he still got strikeouts at a 28.6% rate and kept 50% of balls in play on the ground.

Between the two organizations, Hamilton posted a 3.61 ERA in 47 1/3 Triple-A innings while striking out 30.6% of batters faced and getting grounders on more than half of balls in play. His 9.7% combined walk rate was a bit high, but it was still a solid showing and the Yankees are intrigued enough to give him a closer look. The club has lost some bullpen pieces this winter, with Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and Miguel Castro having signed elsewhere, while Zack Britton is still a free agent. The most significant addition to the Yankee bullpen so far has been the signing of Tommy Kahnle, but Hamilton will provide some non-roster depth and try to earn his way into the club’s plans. If he can succeed in that regard, he still has an option season remaining and comes with plenty of club control since he’s yet to cross the one-year service time mark.

Which Aaron Hicks Will Show Up In 2023?

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After struggling at the plate in his first few major league seasons, Aaron Hicks seemed to break out in 2017. The switch-hitting outfielder went to the injured list a few times due to oblique issues and only got into 88 games, but he hit 15 home runs and stole 10 bases. He also drew walks in 14.1% of his plate appearances, well beyond that year’s 8.5% league average. His .266/.372/.475 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. His defense was also graded well, allowing him to produce 2.7 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs, despite playing barely half a season.

Aaron Hicks | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY SportsThe next year, he stayed healthy enough to get into 137 games and largely repeated his results over a larger sample. He launched 27 homers, swiped 11 bags and walked in 15.5% of his trips to the plate. His .248/.366/.467 batting line led to a 129 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR. The Yankees felt they had a well-rounded player that was worth locking up, agreeing to give Hicks a seven-year, $70MM extension with a club option for 2026.

Things have been up-and-down for Hicks in the four seasons since that extension was signed, however. In 2019, he made multiple trips to the injured list and only got into 59 games. When healthy enough to play, his offensive output was diminished though still above average, as he finished the season with a 103 wRC+. He bounced right back in the shortened 2020 campaign, getting into 54 of the club’s 60 games. He only hit six home runs but he walked in 19.4% of his plate appearances, producing a slash line of .225/.379/.414 and a 124 wRC+. 2021 was another low point, however, as a wrist injury limited him to 32 games of poor production before surgery in May that he wasn’t able to return from.

2022 was the first time Hicks was healthy over a full season since that excellent 2018 campaign, though he wasn’t able to properly return to form, hitting just eight home runs in 130 games. He still walked at a healthy 13.7% clip and stole 10 bases, but his overall production was down. His .216/.330/.313 line amounted to a wRC+ of 90. He also lost the center field job, as the Yanks frequently ran Aaron Judge out there instead and acquired Harrison Bader at the trade deadline even though Bader was injured at the time and wouldn’t be able to take the spot until mid-September. Hicks’ work in left field was graded well which, along with his speed, still allowed him to tally 1.5 fWAR on the year. That’s not disastrous but it was a far cry from his previous form.

There are still three guaranteed years remaining on that extension, and the Yanks have reportedly been fielding trade offers on Hicks this offseason without finding a deal to their liking. With Bader and Judge set to be in center and right, the club was open to finding external additions in left but didn’t end up doing so. That leaves Hicks battling for the job next to younger players like Estevan Florial and Oswaldo Cabrera.

So, what can be expected out of Hicks in 2023? Was 2022 some kind of outlier or just a reasonable expectation of the kind of player Hicks is now? If one wanted to be optimistic and charitable, they could point to the fact that Hicks was coming off three stunted seasons, wrist surgery and then a lockout-interrupted offseason where he was not able to communicate with team staff. His power was diminished but he still got on base and was able to contribute in other ways. Hicks told Dan Martin of The New York Post in September that he tried to come back from wrist surgery lean and athletic to stay healthy but that it backfired by sapping his power. “I wanted to get faster and healthy, but me playing at 200 pounds isn’t it,’’ Hicks said. “I haven’t been impacting the ball like I wanted to. It’s really showed, with my power down. I wanted to be quicker and it didn’t work out that way.” He told Martin that he was looking forward to adding more strength in the offseason and coming into 2023 with the power restored.

The more pessimistic view is that Hicks hasn’t been both good and healthy over an extended period of time since 2018. It’s not his fault there was a pandemic-shortened campaign in there and that he happened to be injured on either side of it, but the fact of the matter is that he’s now 33 and natural age-based regression is working against him. Statcast has some mixed opinions on his 2022 results. His hard hit rate was only in the 14th percentile and his barrel rate just 29th. His average exit velocity was in the 31st percentile, though he did get to the 57th for maximum exit velo, suggesting there’s still some power in there but he wasn’t tapping into it often enough. It’s possible that his plan to bulk up in the offseason and get his strength back could lead to him hitting the ball with more authority in 2023, but there’s no real guarantee that will work.

Regardless of whether that plan comes to fruition, Hicks should still be valuable in some way. As mentioned, even with his down year in 2022, he produced 1.5 fWAR thanks to his speed, defense and ability to draw walks. It’s possible that speed plays up a bit with the new rule changes that will encourage base stealing going forward. He could also get a boost from the ban on extreme defensive alignments as he was shifted in 92.6% of his plate appearances as a lefty and just 6.5% as a righty. He has mild platoon splits for his career, producing a 103 wRC+ as a righty and a 96 as a lefty, with the new rules perhaps leading to more balanced results there.

The major unknown will be that power and if it can come back. Hicks hit 27 home runs in 2018 and had similar results on a rate basis in his injury-marred 2017 and 2019 seasons. But he’s been well shy of that pace for three years running now. If it doesn’t come back, he’s a solid but unexciting regular or perhaps an overqualified fourth outfielder. If it does come back, he’d return to being the well-rounded player the Yanks were so excited about a few years ago. Since no trade has been made, it seems Hicks will get a chance to prove himself this year. Whether he succeeds or not could be significant in a hotly-contested AL East where every win could matter, in this year and the two years still remaining on his contract.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Darren O’Day Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Darren O’Day announced his retirement from baseball on his personal Twitter account on Monday morning.

“The mental, physical, and time demands have finally outweighed my love for the game,” wrote the 40-year-old submarine reliever. “When I started in 2006, I didn’t know if I was good enough to compete in MLB, but I was determined to keep going until someone told me otherwise. I hope anyone out there who does things a little different can find inspiration in my story.”

O’Day went undrafted after a solid NCAA tenure at the University of Florida, but he quickly latched on with the Angels and made his MLB debut with that organization in 2008. He wound up pitching for six total teams — Angels, Mets, Rangers, Orioles, Braves and Yankees — during his impressive 15-year major league career and will hang up his cleats having registered a collective 2.59 ERA with 637 strikeouts, 166 holds and 21 saves in 609 frames at baseball’s highest level. Baseball-Reference has his final career earnings wrapping up just shy of $50MM.

O’Day’s best year on the mound was 2015, when he earned his lone All-Star nod and delivered an overall 1.52 ERA and 82 strikeouts (with only 14 walks) in 65 1/3 innings for the O’s, who then signed him to a four-year, $31MM contract the following winter. The unconventional right-hander was obviously far more than just a one-hit-wonder given how long he lasted in the bigs and how many different clubs saw him as a fit for their respective bullpen mixes along the way. Between the 2009-2021 campaigns, he posted a 2.37 ERA in 586 appearances and collected 21 saves. He also logged 30 postseason appearances in that timeframe, including four in the World Series in 2010 with the Rangers.

O’Day signed a minor league contract with the Braves last winter and put up a 4.15 ERA and 26-to-10 K/BB ratio across 21 2/3 innings in the first half of the 2022 regular season. He suffered a calf injury just before the All-Star break and then a season-ending sprain of his right big toe in September. His last pitch as a major leaguer came on July 11 against the Mets.

MLBTR wishes O’Day well in the next chapter of his life.

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