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Mets Sign Joey Wendle To Major League Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 4:50pm CDT

November 30: Wendle passed his physical and the deal is now official, per Andy Martino of SNY. Wendle can also earn an extra $500K in bonuses, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with $100K for getting to 250, 300, 350, 400 and 450 plate appearances.

November 29: A few hours after agreeing to terms with Luis Severino, the Mets have added infield depth. New York is reportedly in agreement with Joey Wendle on a one-year, $2MM guarantee. The deal also contains performance bonuses for the Excel Sports Management client.

Wendle, 34 next April, has spent the last two years in the NL East as a member of the Marlins. His tenure with the Fish didn’t go as planned. Miami acquired the left-handed hitter from the Rays over the 2021-22 offseason. He’d had a solid four-year run in Tampa Bay, hitting .274/.330/.414 and earning an All-Star nod in his final season. Miami installed him as their primary third baseman for the ’22 season.

His offensive numbers took a sharp downward turn. Wendle hit .259/.297/.360 with only three home runs through 371 trips to the plate. Miami brought in Jean Segura to play third base last offseason but kept Wendle in the Opening Day lineup, kicking him up the defensive spectrum. After trading Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers, the Marlins turned to Wendle as their primary shortstop.

Wendle had an even tougher year. He hit .212/.248/.306 over 318 plate appearances. He connected on only two homers while his strikeout rate jumped from 13.5% to a nearly average 21.1% clip. Of the 293 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, none had a lower on-base percentage than Wendle. His slugging mark was ninth-lowest among that group. The Fish stuck by Wendle as their primary shortstop, although he struggled significantly down the stretch. He hit .142/.176/.201 in the season’s second half.

To his credit, Wendle handled his more demanding defensive responsibilities. He logged a career-high 754 1/3 innings at shortstop, no small feat for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive Runs Saved rated him highly, estimating he was six runs above average at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric was more bearish, grading him three runs below par.

Barring injury, Francisco Lindor will take almost every shortstop inning next season. Wendle can handle a utility role off the bench. Public defensive metrics have always graded Wendle highly at second base and pegged him as a solid defender at the hot corner. As a defense-first lefty hitter with the ability to handle multiple infield spots, he’s more or less a direct replacement for Luis Guillorme. The Mets non-tendered the latter two weeks ago.

A $2MM guarantee brings the Mets’ payroll projection around $276MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their competitive balance tax number jumps a little north of $289MM. New York is within the third tier of luxury penalization, roughly $8MM below the $297MM mark that represents the fourth and final tier. Given remaining needs on the pitching staff and in the corner outfield, they seem likely to surpass that threshold by the time the offseason concludes.

Since they’re presently in the third tier and have paid the luxury tax in each of the past two seasons, the Mets are charged a 95% rate on their expenditures. Adding Wendle comes with $1.9MM in taxes, bringing the total cost to $3.9MM. If/when they pass the $297MM figure, they’d be taxed at a staggering 110% rate on each additional dollar spent.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Mets were in discussions with Wendle. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report an agreement had been reached. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the approximate $2MM base salary and the presence of unspecified performance bonuses. Joel Sherman of the New York Post pegged the guarantee at exactly $2MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2023 at 10:57am CDT

Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.

In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.

As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.

Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.

Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.

From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.

Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).

As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.

Mets Sign Luis Severino

By Darragh McDonald | November 29, 2023 at 11:56pm CDT

The Mets are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Luis Severino on a one-year, $13MM guarantee. The deal also includes $2MM in performance bonuses. Severino, who is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, would receive $500K for reaching 27 starts and $750K apiece for his 29th and 31st start.

Severino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winter’s free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat issues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts.

That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he tossed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022.

Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his 97.6 from 2018. It’s higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph.

Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severino’s track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side.

That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with reporting from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last year’s struggles led them to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ahead of the deadline. Then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency and David Peterson required hip surgery that will force him to miss the start of next season.

All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto, but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the club’s Opening Day plans.

It’s still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction won’t make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but reporting from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat less-aggressive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step.

This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson before a bigger three-year strike on Sonny Gray. Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans.

For now, they’ve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isn’t able to get back in good form, the Mets won’t have impacted their plans for competing in the long term.

In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to Roster Resource, this move pushes the club’s competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next year’s base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but it’s distinctly possible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the specific bonus structure.

Brewers Making Progress On Extension Talks With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

By Darragh McDonald | November 29, 2023 at 8:05am CDT

Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.

Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.

It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.

Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.

It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.

As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.

There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.

If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.

If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.

Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta’s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.

Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.

Tigers Sign Kenta Maeda

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

November 28: The club has now officially announced the deal, which is frontloaded. Maeda will make $14MM in 2024 and $10MM in 2025. The club’s 40-man roster count is now at 38.

November 26: The Tigers have added some experience to their young rotation, agreeing to sign right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $24MM contract. Maeda will undergo his physical on Monday, so the deal should be officially announced within the next 24 hours. Maeda is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Reports emerged earlier this week linking Maeda and the Tigers, though the Twins (Maeda’s former team) maintained interest. However, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson writes that the Twins only had interest in Maeda on a one-year contract, so moving to a multi-year looks to have sealed the deal for the Tigers. Minnesota will now have to deal with Maeda as an opponent on a division rival, as Maeda will join the third team of his Major League career as he enters his age-36 season.

With Eduardo Rodriguez possibly leaving Detroit in free agency, Maeda steps in as the veteran presence within a Tigers rotation that is still pretty unseasoned. Most of the Tigers’ young arms were also set back by injuries during the club’s nightmarish 2022 season, though Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning pitched well when healthy, and Reese Olson stepped up as a legitimate rotation candidate. At the moment, Maeda looks to be the No. 2 on the staff behind Skubal, with Manning, Olson, and Casey Mize (set to return after missing 2023 due to Tommy John surgery) looking like the provisional starting five.

This offseason marked the end of the incentive-heavy, eight-year, $25MM deal Maeda signed with the Dodgers back in January 2016, when Maeda first came to the majors from Nippon Professional Baseball. Maeda’s earning power at the time was somewhat limited due to some concerns over his elbow, though he didn’t have any major arm-related injury issues over four years in Los Angeles before the Dodgers dealt him to the Twins during the 2019-20 offseason. Maeda responded with an outstanding performance in the pandemic-shortened campaign, posting a 2.70 ERA in 66 2/3 innings and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

With a more modest 4.66 ERA in 106 1/3 frames in 2021, the injury bug then finally bit, as Maeda had to undergo the internal-brace version of Tommy John surgery. Using the brace theoretically could have reduced Maeda’s time on the injured list, yet he ended up missing the entire 2022 season. His comeback year in 2023 was also shortened by close to two months by a triceps strain, but the numbers were pretty solid overall when Maeda did take the mound.

Maeda posted a 4.23 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate over 104 1/3 innings for Minnesota. Both the walk and strikeout rates were well above average, and Maeda wasn’t a high-velocity pitcher even before surgery, so his 90.9mph average was just slightly below his career norm. Maeda did allow a lot of hard contact last year, which was something of a red flag considering that he very good and occasionally elite at inducing soft contact in the seasons prior to his brace procedure.

Between the hard-contact numbers, Maeda’s age, and injury history, the expectation was that Maeda’s market might be limited to a two-year (or two years with an option) contract this winter. MLBTR ranked Maeda 25th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a two-year, $36MM pact for the right-hander. The actual dollar figure will fall below our projection, perhaps suggesting that teams had concerns over Maeda’s ability to stay healthy. Speculatively, it could also be that Maeda preferred to get a deal done sooner rather than later, perhaps as a nod to the strong interest shown by the Tigers this early in the winter.

There’s no doubt that the righty has a high ceiling of performance when he’s healthy, making the signing a pretty solid move for Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris. After spending most of his first year in the job in evaluation mode, Harris has started to make some modest but noteworthy expenditures for veteran talent, both in signing Maeda and in trading for Mark Canha earlier this month. Adding Maeda’s deal puts Detroit’s projected payroll (as per Roster Resource) at only $85.26MM, though Harris has spoken of exercising financial caution in the past, and it isn’t yet clear how much the Tigers are willing to spend this winter.

At the very least, the Tigers have the flexibility to perhaps explore a bigger move should an opportunity present itself, and Maeda’s signing perhaps opens such a door in a unique fashion. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press wrote this week that the Tigers were considering Maeda both for the pitcher’s own value and also to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market.” This is particularly intriguing in the context of Detroit’s interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and if Harris and Tigers ownership were prepared to break the bank on a player, it might be for this circumstance of a 25-year-old Japanese ace who might have up to a decade of prime baseball still ahead of him.

Shota Imanaga is another prominent name coming to the majors from NPB this winter, even if Imanaga is 30 and his ceiling isn’t considered as high as Yamamoto’s. It is also possible the Tigers might not be done with veteran pitchers from the Major League free agent market, as names like Seth Lugo and Luis Severino are also reportedly on Detroit’s radar as arms available on shorter-term and relatively less-expensive contracts.

An argument could’ve been made for the Twins to issue Maeda a qualifying offer as he entered free agency, yet with Minnesota planning to cut payroll next year, it is easy to see why the Twins might not have wanted to risk Maeda accepting the offer and locking in a $20.325MM salary for 2024. By not issuing a qualifying offer, Minnesota won’t receive anything in compensation for Maeda’s departure.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link) was the first to report the agreement and the term length, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $24MM figure. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that Maeda’s deal was pending the pass of his physical.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

White Sox Sign Paul DeJong

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2023 at 10:05am CDT

The White Sox announced Tuesday that they’ve signed free agent shortstop Paul DeJong to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $1.75MM. (Chicago is one of the few MLB organizations that publicly discloses financial terms.) DeJong, a client of the C.L. Rocks Corporation, can reportedly earn another $250K via incentives.

Signing the 30-year-old DeJong is a clear buy-low move for the Sox, as he has struggled badly in recent seasons. He had an incredible debut with the Cardinals in 2017, hitting 25 home runs in his first 108 major league games. His 28% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate were not great, but his overall line of .285/.325/.532 translated to a wRC+ of 123.

The Cards made a bet that DeJong could be their shortstop for many years to come, signing him to a six-year, $26MM extension prior to 2018. Unfortunately for them, DeJong’s production slid downhill from the moment that deal was signed. His wRC+ dropped to 103 in 2018, then 101, 87, 84 and 54 through 2022.

In 2023, he seemed to get back on track somewhat. Through 81 games for the Cards, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .233/.297/.412 for a wRC+ of 94. Though he was still below the league average hitter, that kind of production for a strong defensive shortstop was still welcome, and an obvious boost from his previous nosedive.

However, the Cards flipped him to the Blue Jays prior to the deadline, which was the start of another frustrating run for him. The Jays had recently lost Bo Bichette to the injured list and tried to use DeJong to fill the gap, but the move to Toronto didn’t go well, to put it mildly. DeJong hit .068/.068/.068 in his 44 plate appearances, striking out in 40.9% of them without drawing a walk. Once Bichette was reinstated from the injured list, the Jays designated him for assignment and eventually released him. The Giants took a shot on him but he continued to struggle, hitting .184/.180/.286 for that club, striking out at a 32% clip and not drawing a walk for them either. He was released again near the end of September.

The White Sox just moved on from a different shortstop who also endured an awful season in 2023. Tim Anderson had been an above-average hitter from 2019 to 2022 but hit just one home run this past year while batting .245/.286/.296 overall. His wRC+ of 60 was the worst such number from any qualified hitter for the year. The Sox could have retained Anderson via a $14MM buyout and hoped for a bounceback but decided to move on, declining that option.

A couple of weeks ago, general manager Chris Getz said the club would be looking for a veteran with good defense to take over for Anderson, ideally on a short-term deal to bridge the gap to prospect Colson Montgomery. DeJong certainly fits the bill there, having racked up 41 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and earned a grade of 30.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career. He has shown some offensive potential in the past but the recent results have been grisly.

Perhaps the club will only keep DeJong around until the job is wrested away from him, as Montgomery is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He’s currently listed #14 overall at Baseball America, #12 at FanGraphs and #17 at MLB Pipeline, while midseason updates saw him get the #21 spot from Keith Law of The Athletic and #2 from ESPN. Montgomery hit .287/.455/.484 in the minors this year, posting matching strikeout and walk rates of 19%. He finished the year at Double-A and then went to the Arizona Fall League for a bit more action.

Montgomery is still young, turning 22 in February, and has yet to reach Triple-A. But it’s possible he’s not too far away and DeJong may just be a placeholder. The Sox don’t have an obvious solution at second base either, so perhaps DeJong could move across the bag if he is in decent form, but it’s also possible the club could move on if the guarantee isn’t especially burdensome.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the White Sox and DeJong were nearing a major league deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first confirmed a deal was in place. Bob Nightengale of USA Today specified it was a one-year contract, and Heyman first reported the terms — which were subsequently publicly confirmed by the club.

Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2023 at 9:24am CDT

Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.

Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.

That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.

Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.

For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.

Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.

For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.

Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.

Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.

The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.

Cardinals Sign Sonny Gray To Three-Year Deal

By Nick Deeds | November 27, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Cardinals have added their desired top-of-the-rotation starter. St. Louis announced the signing of right-hander Sonny Gray to a three-year guarantee with a club option for the 2027 season. It’s a reported $75MM deal, while the option is valued at $30MM and comes with a $5MM buyout (which is included in the overall guarantee).

Gray, who celebrated his 34th birthday earlier this month, hit free agency on the heels of a dominant 2023 campaign with the Twins that saw him earn his third career All Star appearance and finish as the runner-up in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees righty Gerrit Cole. The veteran hurler posted a sterling 2.79 ERA (54% better than league average by measure of ERA+) along with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP in 184 innings of work across 32 starts. His 24.3% strikeout rate was a top-25 figure among qualified starters this season, while his 47.3% groundball rate ranked ninth among that same group. Only Framber Valdez, Zach Eflin, Justin Steele, and Kyle Bradish posted better figures in both stats this year.

The deal will be the first free agent contract of Gray’s 11-year major league career, as the 18th overall pick of the 2011 draft signed an extension with the Reds upon being traded to Cincinnati in early 2019 that covered the 2020-22 seasons, with a team option for 2023. At the time of the three-year, $30.5MM deal, Gray was coming off a brutal 2018 campaign with the Yankees that saw him post a 4.90 ERA (86 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP. Fortunately for both the Reds and Gray, the righty quickly turned things around with a 2.87 ERA, 175 1/3 inning performance during the 2019 season. Altogether, Gray posted a 3.22 ERA (138 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the life of his extension, though the final two seasons of the deal were spent with the Twins after the righty was shipped to Minnesota in exchange for right-hander Chase Petty just before the 2022 season.

Strong as Gray’s platform season in 2023 was, there were some potential red flags in his performance. Most notably, Gray allowed a microscopic 5.2% of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs, by far a career low that flies in the face of his career-high 6.9% barrel rate. That disparity leaves Gray with expected stats that are significantly less impressive than his actual production last season, including a 3.64 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA. While those are both still top-20 figures among qualified starters this season, it’s reasonable to be concerned that Gray’s elite home run prevention figures may not hold up over time, particularly as he enters his mid-thirties. Of course, a move from the Twins’ home ballpark of Target Field (which has played slightly homer-friendly in recent years) to the Cardinals’ home field of Busch Stadium could help alleviate those concerns to some extent. While Busch played as an essentially neutral ballpark in terms of home runs in 2023, the stadium has been among the best for suppressing the long ball in recent years.

Though a deal for Gray comes with its fair share of risk, it’s hard to imagine a team better situated to enjoy the benefits of his services than the Cardinals. St. Louis starters posted a collective ERA of 5.02 in 2023, the fifth-worst figure in the majors. The club’s struggles with starting pitching this season led president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to announce the club’s desire to add three starting pitchers this winter to a rotation that included little certainty beyond veteran righty Miles Mikolas headed into 2024. Between deals for Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and now Gray, St. Louis has accomplished that goal before the calendar flips to December.

Lynn and Gibson both pitched to the results of a back-end starter in 2023 with ERAs of 5.73 and 4.73, respectively. Adding Gray to the mix gives the Cardinals a bonafide, front-of-the-rotation arm to whom they could confidently assign a playoff start to as they look to turn things around on the heels of a 91-loss season that saw them finish dead last in the NL Central this year. Gray was among the top free agent starters this winter, coming in at the #9 spot of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents list with a projected four-year, $90MM contract. That projection ended up a year and $15MM above the contract Gray received, though our $22.5MM projected average annual value was actually slightly below the $25MM figure Gray ultimately received.

It’s possible the deal completes the club’s 2024 rotation with a projected starting five of Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn, and left-hander Steven Matz. That would make for a rotation entirely comprised of veteran arms well past their 30th birthdays; Matz, 33 in May, would be the youngest of the group. That being said, it’s at least feasible the club could look to add a younger arm to the rotation later in the offseason. Matz has seen considerable use out of the bullpen during his two years in St. Louis, leaving a plausible path to a fourth rotation addition should the club to make one. In addition to Gray, the Cardinals have been connected to both NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery this offseason.

That being said, it’s unclear whether the signing of Gray will preclude the club from adding either of those arms from a payroll perspective. It’s worth noting that Mozeliak has indicated payroll could stay relatively stagnant compared to last year’s expected figure prior to their sell-side moves at the trade deadline. That would likely leave the Cardinals with around $40-50MM of payroll space to work with this offseason, $22MM of which has already been dedicated to the signings of Gibson and Lynn. Between the $25MM reported cost for Gray and the Cardinals’ reported desire to add multiple arms to the bullpen this offseason, the club seemingly has minimal financial wiggle room for other moves of significance going forward.

In addition to the $75MM the Cardinals are committed to Gray, the club stands to lose their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft and $500K in international bonus pool space from the signing of a qualified free agent. The Twins, who extended Gray a qualifying offer earlier this month, are in line to receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round in next year’s draft, as Gray signed for more than $50MM. It’s the second consecutive offseason during which St. Louis has signed a qualified free agent after the Cardinals signed catcher Willson Contreras away from the Cubs last winter.

The Cardinals weren’t the only known suitor for Gray’s services this winter, as the Braves have frequently been connected to the right-hander in recent weeks. It’s unclear whether the Braves ultimately made an offer to Gray, but the veteran righty represents the second front-of-the-rotation arm Atlanta has shown interest in who ultimately signed elsewhere this offseason. The club reportedly offered right-hander Aaron Nola a deal worth $162MM over six years prior to him landing with the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. While there’s still plenty of front-of-the-rotation caliber arms available this offseason, it’s worth noting that Atlanta’s financial outlook is somewhat murky and the club has already signed Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year deal with an eye toward stretching him out as a starter.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Cardinals and Gray were likely to finalize a contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported it would be a three-year, $75MM guarantee. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported the option value.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers To Re-Sign Jason Heyward

By Steve Adams | November 27, 2023 at 11:14am CDT

11:14am: It’s a one-year, $9MM deal for Heyward, McDaniel now adds. Terms have been agreed upon, but the arrangement is still pending the completion of a physical.

11:03am: The Dodgers are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’ll be a one-year for the Excel Sports client if and when it’s finalized.

After a largely underwhelming seven-year run with the Cubs, Heyward signed with the Dodgers and had a bounceback season at the plate, turning in a strong .269/.340/.473 batting line with 15 home runs and 23 doubles in 377 trips to the plate. Last years’ 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2018, while his 9% walk rate was his best mark since the shortened 2020 campaign. Some of those improvements stemmed from being shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching — just 7.4% of his plate appearances came against lefties — but Heyward also showed dramatic improvement against right-handed pitching as well.

Beyond his strong year at the plate, Heyward continued to rate as an above-average defender in the outfield. Los Angeles gave him the vast majority of his work in right field, but Heyward also logged 120 innings in center field and the first 25 innings of his career in left field. On the whole, Defensive Runs Saved (+3) and Outs Above Average (+6) felt he was a strong defensive presence in his 769 frames of work.

That steady glovework from Heyward also freed the Dodgers to get creative with perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts, who not only logged time at second base but also spent considerable time at the shortstop position for the first time in his career. Lack of experience notwithstanding, Betts proved an apt defender at both positions, giving manager Dave Roberts significant flexibility in filling out the lineup card without needing to sacrifice substantially on the defensive side of things.

Heyward’s return could once again free Betts to log significant time in the infield — particularly against right-handed pitching. Against southpaws, Betts can return to his more customary right field. Other names in L.A.’s outfield mix include center fielder James Outman, utilityman/left fielder Chris Taylor and top prospect Andy Pages, who might’ve debuted in 2023 had shoulder surgery not cut his season short. Pages is expected to be ready for spring training, the Dodgers announced at the time of his June surgery, but Heyward’s return takes some pressure off him as he ramps back up from that procedure. And, if Pages ultimately pushes his way onto the big league roster, his right-handed bat will give Roberts a natural complement to lefties like Heyward and Outman.

It’s possible the Dodgers will bring in additional outfield help — they’ve been tied to Teoscar Hernandez, most notably — but starting pitching has been the primary focus for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the rest of the front office thus far. In addition to their widely expected pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers have been connected to free agents like Blake Snell and the now off-the-market Aaron Nola, in addition to trade candidate Dylan Cease.

From a payroll perspective, Heyward’s straight $9MM deal brings the Dodgers up to about $150MM in projected spending, per Roster Resource. They’re well shy of the $237MM luxury tax threshold at this point, sitting between $167-168MM (using MLBTR’s projected 2024 arbitration salaries). That could leave them with as much around $70MM before they reach luxury tax status — though paying the CBT has not historically been a concern for the deep-pocketed Dodgers.

With Heyward on a one-year commitment and other veterans such as Blake Treinen, Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes potentially coming off the books at the end of the 2024 season, the Dodgers have under $100MM of luxury-tax obligations on the books beyond the 2024 campaign. Bringing back Heyward on this contract maintains much of that enormous long-term flexibility in an offseason where the market features several candidates for weighty long-term deals (Ohtani, Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among them).

Braves, White Sox Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

By Steve Adams | November 27, 2023 at 9:40am CDT

The Braves are among the teams in ongoing trade talks with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Atlanta had been connected to a pair of notable free agent starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but Nola re-signed in Philadelphia last week and Gray is reportedly wrapping up a deal with the Cardinals today.

With their ostensible top two free-agent targets off the board, it’s not a surprise to see the Braves being more prominently connected to the trade market. Cease’s White Sox are generally open for business on the heels of a catastrophic 2023 season that led to the firing of longtime baseball ops executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. Assistant GM Chris Getz has since been elevated to the GM’s chair, and Getz plainly stated following the season that there are no untouchables on his roster. Cease, with two remaining years of club control, is among the likelier and most appealing trade candidates Getz has at his disposal.

Cease, 28 next month, was the American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but had a down season in 2023 — one of the myriad factors which contributed to the disastrous season on Chicago’s south side. His 2022 campaign featured 184 frames of 2.20 ERA ball with a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate, but that version of Cease appeared far too infrequently for the Sox’s liking in 2023. This past season saw the righty post a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 innings, showing diminished fastball velocity (95.8 mph, down from 96.9 mph a year prior) and a lesser strikeout rate (27.3%).

Cease made a nominal improvement in his walk rate (10.1%), but virtually every other aspect of his profile backed up in ’23. His opponents’ average exit velocity and hard-hit rates exploded, jumping from 86.8 mph and 31.2% in 2022 to 90 mph and 41.5% in 2023. Both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rate dropped sharply as well, and Cease allowed an average of 0.97 homers per nine frames after yielding 0.76 HR/9 in 2022. He had some obvious struggles due to the poor defense behind him, with a career-high .330 average on balls in play (up from .260 the previous year), but that alone is not the driving force behind his struggles. Some of the BABIP spike was likely of his own doing anyhow; the uptick in hard contact he yielded certainly contributed to more balls finding their way through an already porous defense.

Although Cease’s 2023 season wasn’t a particularly strong year in terms of run-prevention, he still boasts well above-average velocity and bat-missing capabilities. Fielding-independent metrics (3.72 FIP, 4.10 SIERA) felt he was better than that lackluster ERA, even if he wasn’t as sharp as he was in 2022. He’s also proven himself a durable and reliable arm, as he’s made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons. Add in a reasonable $8.8MM projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and it’s abundantly clear that Cease still possesses plenty of trade value. Consider that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a pair of innings eaters in their late 30s who don’t have the same upside as Cease’s 2022 campaign, signed for $11MM and $12MM, respectively, with the Cardinals. Cease’s projected $8.8MM salary is a clear bargain — particularly with another year of arbitration set to follow.

As things stand, the Atlanta rotation projects to consist of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with a fifth-spot competition headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd and (eventually) a returning Ian Anderson, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season. The Braves have prioritized adding a playoff-caliber arm to that group, both to safeguard against injury for the top of the rotation and also to protect against the potential departure of Fried, who’ll be a free agent following the season. Cease would accomplish both of those goals.

In many ways, a trade is the more sensible route for the Braves to go in terms of their rotation need anyhow. Atlanta’s projected payroll is already just shy of $207MM, per Roster Resource, but their luxury-tax obligations are far more consequential. The Braves project at around $241MM of luxury considerations, which already has them north of the $237MM luxury tax barrier. This is the second straight year they’ll be paying the luxury tax, so they’ll be penalized at a 30% rate for the first $20MM by which they exceed the tax and a 42% rate for the next $20MM. Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.

Cease, of course, will come with those same penalties, but a 30% tax on his projected $8.8MM salary would bring the total outlay for acquiring him (speaking strictly financially) to around $11.5MM — a far more palatable price point than the free-agent market has to offer. Atlanta would also have the offseason to explore a possible extension with Cease — an Atlanta-area native (Milton, Ga.). The Braves have had plenty of success both acquiring and extending players with local ties, be it through the draft or through trades.

The Braves’ farm system has been stripped down by previous trades to acquire names like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and several relievers (Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias). They still have some appealing young talent, particularly in the upper minors or even some young big leaguers who’ve already gotten their feet wet. Smith-Shawver, Dodd and infielder Vaughn Grissom, for instance, would all hold appeal to the White Sox (and to other potential trade partners with pitching to peddle). The Sox and Braves already lined up on one swap this offseason, with Chicago sending the aforementioned lefty reliever Bummer to Atlanta.

Atlanta figures to face steep competition with regard to Cease, who offers one of the most tantalizing blends of raw talent, affordable salary and remaining club control on this offseason’s trade market. MLBTR ranked Cease sixth on our original list of the offseason’s top 25 trade candidates.

The Dodgers are already known to be interested, and just about any other team in need of starting pitching figures to check in — particularly those that may not want to spend top-of-the-market dollars to augment their starting staffs in free agency. That group could include the Reds, Pirates, D-backs, Padres and Orioles, to list a speculative few.

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