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Mets Plan To Activate Jacob deGrom On Tuesday

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The Mets are planning to reinstate Jacob deGrom from the 60-day injured list next Tuesday, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The two-time Cy Young winner will make his season debut against the Nationals.

deGrom hasn’t pitched in a major league game in just shy of 13 months. He was on his way to one of the most dominant pitching seasons in history last year, working to an absurd 1.08 ERA with a 45.1% strikeout rate through 15 starts. deGrom had a few injury concerns along the way, however, and he landed on the IL coming out of the All-Star Break due to a forearm/ebow issue. That eventually proved to be season-ending, with the righty’s final outing of the year coming on July 7.

New York anticipated reinstalling deGrom atop the rotation alongside offseason free agent pickup Max Scherzer to form the game’s scariest 1-2 punch. Just before Opening Day, deGrom experienced some shoulder soreness during a between-starts throwing session. He was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his scapula, an issue that cost him almost the first four months of the 2022 campaign.

deGrom has been building back to game action for a while, and he began a minor league rehab assignment at the start of July. He’s made four starts, topping out at four innings and 67 pitches. deGrom’s most recent appearance at Triple-A Syracuse came on Wednesday, so he’ll get a six-day rest before joining the big league club. DiComo writes that he’ll unsurprisingly be on a strict pitch limit for his first appearance, but the Mets anticipate he’ll gradually build towards a traditional starter’s workload throughout the second half.

The Mets rotation will be more or less at full strength for the first time all year. deGrom will step into an excellent starting five alongside Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco. Scherzer has been his typically dominant self, while Walker has somewhat quietly posted a 2.67 ERA across 17 starts. Bassitt had a rough stretch between May and June, though the typically reliable righty has bounced back with a 3.20 mark this month. Carrasco is a more than qualified fifth option, posting a 4.07 ERA with better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. David Peterson is a solid sixth starter. The Mets do remain without righty Tylor Megill due to a shoulder injury. Manager Buck Showalter told reporters yesterday the club was viewing Megill as a bullpen option for the rest of this season once he makes his return, which won’t be until at least late August (via Tim Britton of the Athletic).

The Mets are a virtual lock to make the postseason in some capacity, and the organization is surely anticipating running out three or four members of that group in a playoff rotation. The more immediate concern is holding onto a three-game lead over the defending champion Braves in the NL East, with the new postseason format’s first-round bye making it particularly advantageous to finish as a top-two seed in each league. It appears the National League’s byes will wind up going to the Dodgers and the East winner.

As for deGrom, he’ll have two months (plus any postseason action) to reestablish himself as the sport’s best pitcher now that he’s healthy. In spite of his absence, the 34-year-old has maintained he plans to opt out of the final guaranteed season of his deal at the end of this year. That’d be a no-brainer decision if he demonstrates he remains at peak form for the final couple months, particularly with one of the top impending free agent starters (Joe Musgrove) now unlikely to hit the market.

Mariners Acquire Luis Castillo

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The first major starting pitching trade has been made, as the Mariners and Reds announced a deal sending two-time All-Star Luis Castillo to Seattle. In exchange, the Reds bring back four prospects — highly-regarded infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and right-handers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Cincinnati has selected the contract of reliever Ryan Hendrix to take Castillo’s roster spot.

Castillo had been perhaps the prize of this year’s rotation market. After missing a few weeks due to shoulder soreness to open the year, Castillo made his season debut in early May and has looked like a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s made 14 starts and worked 85 innings, pitching to a 2.86 ERA despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly parks. Castillo has punched out a quality 25.8% of opposing hitters against a solid 8% walk rate. This season’s 47.1% grounder percentage is down a bit relative to his 2019-21 levels, but it remains a few points better than the league average.

That kind of high-end production is about what we’ve come to expect from Castillo, who has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top arms over the past few seasons. He’s posted an ERA under 4.00 in each of the last four years, carrying a cumulative 3.49 mark in 91 starts since the beginning of the 2019 campaign. That’s 24th among 98 qualified starters over that stretch. His 26.8% strikeout rate ranks 23rd among that group, and he’s 12th with a 14.2% swinging strike percentage (whiffs per pitch). He’s complemented the strikeout stuff with a massive 54.8% ground-ball percentage that ranks among the top ten.

Few pitchers can match Castillo’s combination of whiffs and grounders, and the 29-year-old backs it up with an impressive arsenal. He’s one of the harder throwing starters, averaging just shy of 97 MPH on both his four-seam and sinker. Castillo’s bread-and-butter secondary pitch, his changeup, is among the game’s top offspeed offerings, and he’s gotten strong results on his slider as well.

Castillo will move to the front of a rotation that suddenly looks to be one of the more fearsome in the sport. The M’s signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year deal over the winter, and second-year hurler Logan Gilbert has a 2.78 ERA through 21 starts. Rookie George Kirby, who was generally considered among the top handful of pitching prospects entering the season, has a 3.50 ERA through his first 13 big league outings. Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales aren’t high-strikeout arms, but they’re more than capable back-of-the-rotation types.

Seattle will want to keep an eye on the innings totals for Gilbert and Kirby, so there’d have been sense in even adding a stable back-end arm. Instead, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff swung bigger to bolster the 54-46 club they expect to snap the franchise’s two-decade playoff drought. Should they make the postseason, the front office and fanbase alike would no doubt feel strongly about their ability to match opponents’ top three arms with Castillo, Ray and Gilbert.

The deal is about more than just the 2022 season, as Castillo will be arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter. He’s making $7.35MM this year, around $2.75MM of which has yet to be paid out. He’ll earn a decent raise in arbitration but still have a plenty affordable salary — likely around the $12MM range. That’s an obvious bargain for a pitcher of his caliber, making a year and a half of his services incredibly valuable.

That’s reflected in the return, which looks very strong. Marte and Arroyo were the top two prospects in the Seattle system on Baseball America’s most recent top 100, respectively checking in 47th and 48th in the league. Marte, the most well-known of the group, entered the season ranked among the game’s top 15 farmhands in the estimation of each of Keith Law of the Athletic, FanGraphs and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

A 6’3″ infielder out of the Dominican Republic, Marte is universally projected as a possible plus power hitter capable of racking up 25 or more home runs annually at his peak. He has played exclusively shortstop in the minors, and while evaluators suggest he might eventually grow off that position, he’s expected to stick on the infield as a possible above-average third baseman. He’s spent the year in High-A as a 20-year-old, putting up an impressive .270/.360/.460 line with 15 homers, a strong 10.8% walk rate and a manageable 21.1% strikeout percentage through 389 plate appearances.

Arroyo, 18, was Seattle’s second-round pick in last year’s draft. The Puerto Rico native has already notably elevated his stock in his first full professional season, raking at a .316/.385/.514 clip in Low-A. He’s collected 13 homers and 19 doubles and stolen 21 bases. That kind of offensive performance was unexpected, as the switch-hitter entered the season more well-regarded for his potential plus defense at shortstop than his bat.

Stoudt recently checked in as the M’s #10 prospect, per Baseball America. The 24-year-old righty has struggled at Double-A this year, pitching to a 5.28 ERA across 87 innings. He has a slightly below-average 22% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.9% walk percentage that look more palatable, however. BA writes that he works in the 94-98 MPH range with his fastball and has a solid array of secondary offerings, led by his changeup. The 2019 3rd-round pick will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s regarded as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter.

Moore, not to be confused with the former Seattle starter of the same name, was a 14th-round pick out of junior college last year. The 22-year-old righty has worked exclusively out of the bullpen in Low-A, posting a 1.95 ERA through 32 1/3 innings with a ridiculous 43.6% strikeout rate. He’s generally facing younger competition and has walked almost 13% of opponents, but BA recently wrote that he features a 95-97 MPH fastball and a swing-and-miss breaking pitch. He’ll add an interesting lower level bullpen arm to the Cincinnati system.

The trade — which marks the second time in four months these two teams have lined up on a blockbuster — will have plenty of repercussions. Seattle’s decision to push in arguably their top two prospects for one of the sport’s best starters reinforces that the M’s view themselves as a legitimate contender in the American League. It also seemingly signifies they’re out of the running for Juan Soto, although there’s still plenty of upper level talent for Dipoto and his group to further bolster the roster over the next three days. Second base looks like a possible target area, as does backup catcher. Castillo, though, figures to be the splash — the impact addition designed to put a team that’s generally strong around the diamond over the top.

As for the Reds, it’s the second (and likely most notable) trade they’ll make this week as they strip down the big league roster in search of future talent. Castillo’s former rotation mate Tyler Mahle could soon join him in being moved for a marquee return (although not likely one as strong as this). Rental hitters like Brandon Drury and Donovan Solano won’t recoup a franchise-altering package, but there’s little reason for them not to join Tyler Naquin and Castillo in changing clubs.

With Castillo off the market, Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas become the top two rotation trade candidates, in addition to a handful of high-impact arms who might be available despite having control windows extending beyond 2023. Teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers and Twins are known to be in the market for rotation help. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that 12 teams were in contact with the Reds about Castillo and suggests the Yankees’ offer was close to the quality of Seattle’s. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic indicates Texas made a strong push as well. In the end, the Mariners put the best offer on the table, leaving plenty of others to look elsewhere over the next 72 hours.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report Seattle was nearing a deal for Castillo. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times was first to report the prospects going back to Cincinnati.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.

Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.

The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).

There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.

Padres, Joe Musgrove Nearing Extension Agreement

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7:20pm: Heyman reports (on Twitter) that San Diego and Musgrove are close to an agreement on a five-year deal that’d guarantee roughly $100MM.

7:14pm: Extension discussions between the Padres and Joe Musgrove are “gaining momentum,” reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link). The sides have still yet to come to an agreement, but Lin indicates there’s mutual optimism a deal could be hammered out by next week.

The generally optimistic tenor has been prevalent for the past couple weeks. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the All-Star Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently hasn’t deterred or meaningfully set back talks.

Terms currently under discussion are unclear, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Friars made an offer around the Break that resembled the free agent deals given to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season.

Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason. That makes for a reasonable comparison point for the Padres, but Musgrove and his representatives at Full Circle Sports Management could reasonably seek to top those markers. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.63 ERA through 109 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.

Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 57 starts since the beginning of 2020.

A new contract would begin with Musgrove’s age-30 season, giving him a strong case for a six-year deal at an annual rate that’d push him above the $110MM – 115MM range for a total guarantee. At the same time, it’d be plenty understandable if Musgrove were a bit less concerned about maximizing his earning potential to remain with the Padres. He’s a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with the organization. It’s uncommon for players of his magnitude to even discuss an in-season extension when they’re mere months away from the open market.

The appeal for the Padres in trying to keep Musgrove around is fairly evident. He’s one of the sport’s best pitchers, and the Friars could lose Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for two more seasons, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove if they can finalize an extension.

2022 Top 60 Trade Candidates: Late July Edition

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With just four days until the August 2 trade deadline, we’re approaching the opening of the floodgates of activity. The first major domino of deadline season fell Wednesday night, when the Royals shipped Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees for a trio of pitching prospects. With that in mind, it’s time for an updated look at the players who could find themselves on the move.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. There’s an inherent subjectivity in striking that balance.

Benintendi was our No. 2 trade candidate when we did the first iteration of this list in early July. While many of the players on that list are still likely to switch uniforms, plenty of previously unexpected trade candidates have popped up in the meantime. That leads to a change at the top of the list, with no one else dominating headlines quite like a 23-year-old superstar who’s now on the market.

1. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Soto turned down the Nationals latest extension offer, a proposed 15-year, $440MM pact. That at least halted, if not entirely ended, discussions about a potential long-term deal. Washington has been the worst team in the National League without a clear path back to respectability next season. If the front office believes they’re without a clear path to extending Soto, there’s a strong case for dealing him rather than watching him play out much of his remaining arbitration eligibility on bad teams.

None of that is to say the Nationals have to or will trade Soto in the next few days. There’d be almost as much demand for two years of a player of his caliber next offseason. An acquiring team would lose out on a chance to have Soto for a playoff push this summer if the Nationals hang onto him, but waiting until the offseason allows the front office more time to evaluate young players and/or prospects of interest. It’d also open up the number of players available, as 2022 draftees are ineligible to be dealt until after this season (even as players to be named later).

Soto’s trade candidacy is virtually unparalleled in recent memory. He’s won two Silver Sluggers, appeared in two All-Star games and been a key contributor on a World Series winner before turning 24. He’s a career .291/.426/.538 hitter (all stats referenced through play July 27). Even in a bit of a “down” 2022 season by his incredible standard, Soto has the fifth-highest on-base percentage among qualifiers (.400) and has slugged 20 home runs. Even with a $17.1MM salary that’ll see massive jumps in each of his final two seasons of arbitration-eligibility, he’s an absolute financial bargain. Soto’s arguably the best hitter on the planet, and the Nationals would only move him for a haul of controllable talent unlike one we’ve seen in years.

2. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

While Soto’s a relatively new entrant into legitimate trade rumors, Contreras has looked a lock to go for months. The Cubs and his representatives reportedly haven’t had any extension talks. He’s an impending free agent having a career year on a non-competitive team, carrying a .258/.373/.470 line. An acquiring team could eye Contreras either as an upgrade over their #1 catcher, or as a bat-first player capable of rotating between catcher, first base and designated hitter. He’s making $9.625MM in his final year before free agency.

3. Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals

Bell also falls in the ’rental bat on a non-playoff team’ category. He’s a switch-hitter with far better bat-to-ball skills than most players with his level of power. Bell’s strikeout rate sits at a career-low 13.5%, and he owns a .302/.387/.490 line in what has been arguably the best season of his career. As with Contreras, he’s sure to be the big offensive upgrade for some contender in the next few days. Bell is playing on a $10MM salary.

4. Luis Castillo, SP, Reds

5. Frankie Montas, SP, A’s

6. Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds

This trio has been linked for virtually all of deadline season, with good reason. They’re each on teams that slashed payroll over the winter and have fallen into last place in their divisions. They’re arbitration-eligible through 2023. All three have missed some time with shoulder issues on the year, but they’re each healthy now. Most importantly, they’re all very good, at least upper mid-rotation caliber hurlers. They’re the most likely marquee starters to actually change hands.

Castillo owns a sparkling 2.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates through 14 starts. He’s consistently been one of the game’s top pitchers in recent seasons, and he’s at peak form heading into the deadline. Going back to June 1, he owns a 2.62 ERA while holding opponents to a .203/.281/.318 line. Montas has an ERA of 3.37 or lower in three of the past four seasons, including a 3.18 mark in 104 2/3 frames this year. Like Castillo, he throws hard, misses bats, gets grounders and generally pounds the strike zone.

Mahle has the spottiest control of the three, but he has every bit their strikeout prowess. He’s been dramatically better on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark, so it’s easy enough to project him being a little more consistent in a friendlier environment. Mahle had a rough start to the season, but he owns a 3.22 ERA since the beginning of June.

7. Ian Happ, LF, Cubs

Happ is making contact at a career-best rate, and it’s translated to arguably the best season of his career (.282/.366/.446). He’s a well-rounded player — a switch-hitter with power, plate discipline and this season’s decent bat-to-ball skills. Happ’s probably limited to left field, but he’s a capable defender there. He’s making $6.85MM and arbitration-eligible through next season, so a trade isn’t a foregone conclusion the way it is with Contreras, but it’s probably the best opportunity for the Cubs to maximize the value of a return.

8. J.D. Martinez, DH, Red Sox

The Red Sox find themselves with an uncertain direction as they near the deadline. They’re 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, with two additional teams between them and the final playoff spot. They have a -14 run differential on the season and a 7-17 record this month. That could point towards moving some shorter-term players, but they’re only a year removed from an ALCS appearance and it’s fair to chalk up some of their recent struggles to injury.

If the Red Sox do seriously consider offers on their impending free agents, Martinez would be perhaps the top hitter (non-Soto division) available. He’s no longer the 40-plus home run bat he was during his first couple seasons in Boston, but he owns a .295/.363/.471 line. He’s still a middle-of-the-order fixture who’d draw plenty of interest from clubs looking to add offense, even due what remains of a $19.375MM salary. Nearing age 35, Martinez would be a borderline qualifying offer candidate next winter if the Red Sox hold him.

9. Brandon Drury, INF, Reds

An offseason minor league signee, Drury has been an excellent find for the Reds. He’s hitting .268/.329/.512 with 19 homers while playing all around the infield, primarily at second/third base. An impending free agent, he’s emerged as the most interesting of the Reds rental trade chips. Paired with a thin infield market this summer, Drury should be an appealing target for a number of teams.

10. David Robertson, RP, Cubs

Robertson is probably the top target for clubs looking for short-term bullpen help. The veteran reliever has a 1.83 ERA through 39 1/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 31.4% of batters faced. He’s issuing a few more walks than one would like, but he’s missing bats, handling hitters from both sides of the plate and has a salary that’s likely to wind up in the $5MM range. Robertson has plenty of late-game experience over his career, so a contender should feel good about plugging right into high-leverage spots in a pennant race.

11. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Angels

Syndergaard might wind up being the best rental starter to move this summer. The Angels have fallen out of the race, and Syndergaard would be ineligible for a qualifying offer as a free agent after receiving one from the Mets last year. He’s not throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did during his peak days in Queens, but he’s pounding the strike zone and generally keeping the Halos in games. He owns a 3.83 ERA through 80 innings and looks like a possible mid-rotation target for contenders, although his $21MM salary is hefty enough it could deter teams with tight budgetary limits unless the Angels pay down some money.

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox

The same dilemma the Red Sox are facing with Martinez applies to Eovaldi, who’ll be a free agent at the end of the year himself. The righty’s 4.32 ERA/4.59 FIP through 81 1/3 innings aren’t eye-catching, but that’s largely attributable to one horrible start where he gave up five home runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Astros. His strikeout rate is roughly league average, he’s one of the sport’s best control arms, and he’s inducing a fair number of ground-balls. Eovaldi probably isn’t much changed from last year’s 182 1/3 inning, 3.75 ERA form. He’s playing this year on a $17MM salary and would probably receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Red Sox keep him through the end of the season.

13. Jose Quintana, SP, Pirates

14. Drew Smyly, SP, Cubs

Quintana and Smyly are each having decent seasons as impending free agents on non-contenders. They’ll be viewed as possible 5th/6th starter options for a better team. Both southpaws have lower than average walk rates and an ERA below 4.00 despite below-average strikeout rates. Quintana, who’s playing this season on a $2MM salary, is also affordable enough to appeal to virtually every club. Smyly’s a bit costlier, making $4.25MM with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for next season, but he’s also likely to wind up on the move.

15. Michael Fulmer, RP, Tigers

16. Mychal Givens, RP, Cubs

17. Andrew Chafin, RP, Tigers

18. Matt Moore, RP, Rangers

19. Chris Martin, RP, Cubs

A host of potential impending free agents (Chafin’s contract contains a $6.5MM player option for next season), this quintet fits the middle relief/setup archetype of which contenders are in need each deadline season. Chafin and Moore are left-handers; Fulmer, Givens and Martin throw from the right side. Moore’s missing plenty of bats during his first year after converting from the rotation to the bullpen. Chafin and Martin have excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Fulmer and Givens each have elevated walk rates but an ERA below 3.00.

20. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals

Merrifield has been a fixture on these kinds of lists for years, and it seems the Royals are more willing than ever to deal him. It’s not a great time to do so, as he has a mediocre .242/.293/.347 line on the season. Yet Merrifield has a long track record as a prototypical leadoff type, and he’s still making plenty of contact. Capable of playing second base and right field, he’s at least an appealing utility piece for a contender. Merrifield is making $7MM this year and under contract for $6.75MM next season.

21. Carlos Rodon, SP, Giants

The Giants are, in some respects, the NL analogue to the Red Sox. Fresh off a 107-win campaign, they’d certainly anticipated heading into deadline season as buyers. For a while, it seemed as if they would, but they’ve lost seven straight games to fall two games under .500. San Francisco has a positive run differential and a clearer path back to the postseason than Boston — they’re 3 1/2 out of the final playoff spot with only one team in between — but they have to give serious thought to moving some players, particularly if they fall further back over the weekend.

Rodon is likely headed for free agency after the season, having recently reached the innings threshold necessary to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. There’d be no shortage of suitors for a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA and a 31.4% strikeout rate, his second straight year with top-of-the-rotation production. Rodon would have plenty of appeal; it’s just a question of the Giants’ willingness to move him, which would more or less require conceding the unlikelihood of a playoff berth in 2022. They’re reportedly not yet at that point.

22. Joc Pederson, LF, Giants

23. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, Giants

If the Giants do go that route, there’d be little reason not to follow through by looking for suitors on Pederson and Flores. They’re each impending free agents who’d draw plenty of interest. Pederson is playing on a $6MM contract; Flores is making just $3.5MM. The former is a platoon corner outfielder, but he’s popped 17 homers and carries a .244/.319/.496 line on the season. Plenty of teams could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with that kind of production. Flores has some infield flexibility and a history of hitting left-handed pitching very well. He owns a .245/.326/.437 overall mark on the year.

24. Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles

The Orioles have kept right around the Wild Card mix, entering play Friday three games back. That progress seems like it’ll dissuade the front office from trading away controllable building blocks like Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Still, actually reaching the playoffs this year seems unlikely, and Mancini is headed for free agency with just a mutual option remaining on his deal. The O’s wouldn’t get an enormous return, since Mancini has slumped of late and is down to a fine but not overwhelming .268/.345/.401 season line. The club might just deem it better to hold Mancini, a beloved clubhouse and community presence, for the stretch run. He’s playing the year on a $7.5MM salary, plus a $250K buyout of next year’s option.

25. Donovan Solano, 2B/3B, Reds

26. David Peralta, OF, D-Backs

27. Ben Gamel, OF, Pirates

28. Tommy Pham, OF, Reds

A collection of solid rental bats on non-contenders, there’s a good chance for all four of Solano, Peralta, Gamel, and Pham to be dealt. Solano offers the most defensive value of the group, as he’s capable of playing second or third base. The other three are strictly corner outfielders. Solano has missed much of the year to injury but mashed in 27 games since returning. Gamel and Peralta are all solid left-handed bats who could shoulder the larger side of a platoon. Pham’s a right-handed hitter with excellent plate discipline and a capable contact/power combination.

29. Sean Murphy, C, A’s

30. Ramon Laureano, CF, A’s

The A’s sell-off has been well-chronicled. Aside from Montas, Murphy and Laureano are their two most valuable trade chips. They’re each quality defenders at up-the-middle positions (Murphy at catcher, Laureano in center field), and both have slightly above-average offensive numbers. With both arbitration-eligible through the end of the 2025 season, Oakland doesn’t have to force a deal on either player. Murphy could be the likelier to go, since the A’s have top catching prospect Shea Langeliers playing well in Triple-A.

31. Nelson Cruz, DH, Nationals

Cruz has looked like a midseason trade candidate from virtually the moment he signed with the Nationals last offseason. Washington would certainly listen, but the 42-year-old slugger looks as if he’s finally tailed off. He’s hitting only .231/.317/.347, and he carries a .229/.304/.385 line going back to last year’s trade from the Twins to the Rays. That’s not appealing output from a player with no defensive value, particularly one playing this season on a $15MM salary. Still, Cruz’s long-term track record and high regard as a clubhouse presence could get him a shot with a contender, particularly if the Nats are willing to kick in some money to facilitate a deal.

32. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

33. Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers

34. Joe Mantiply, RP, Diamondbacks

35. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

36. Anthony Bass, RP, Marlins

37. Gregory Soto, RP, Tigers

Everyone in this group is controllable beyond this season, and some of them will surely stick with their current clubs past the deadline. Yet they’re all good but not elite late-game arms on teams unlikely to make the postseason in 2022. It’s easy enough to envision their teams selling relatively high on anyone in this tier, with Barlow and Jimenez probably the likeliest to move.

38. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox

Aside from Contreras, Vazquez could wind up being the top rental catcher on the block. As with Martinez and Eovaldi, whether he moves will depend on the approach the Boston front office takes to their recent skid. Owner of a .281/.326/.432 season line with a strong defensive reputation, Vazquez would be an appealing target for teams searching for catching help. He’s playing out the final year of his deal on a $7MM salary.

39. Dominic Smith, DH, Mets

40. J.D. Davis, DH, Mets

There’s been plenty of speculation about the Mets moving one of Smith or Davis, neither of whom is hitting at the level the Mets have wanted out of the DH position. New York’s acquisitions of Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin have been the firmest indication at least one of Smith or Davis was likely to move. Smith, as a left-handed hitter, seems most displaced by the Vogelbach pickup, but the Mets reportedly remain on the hunt for further offensive upgrades. If they land another bat, perhaps both Smith and Davis could be dealt. Both hitters are arbitration-eligible through 2024.

41. Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees

42. Miguel Andujar, 3B/OF, Yankees

On the topic of struggling New York players probably displaced by a trade pickup, the Yankees would seem to be particularly motivated to move Gallo after the Benintendi deal. The blockbuster acquisition of last summer’s deadline hasn’t panned out, with Gallo hitting at just a .160/.293/.371 level in pinstripes. At his best, he’s a prodigious power bat with strong baserunning and defense, but he’s looked lost at the plate for virtually a calendar year. It may be tough for New York to find a taker. Gallo, who’s making $10.275MM, is in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. His recent struggles mean he’s not a great solution for a contender looking for an immediate corner outfield upgrade. Yet his impending free agency reduces the interest of a buy-low for a non-competitive club, with no long-term contractual control if he does turn things around in a new setting.

Andujar, meanwhile, is reportedly being shopped by the Yankees. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity in the Bronx since shoulder surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but he’s expanded his defensive profile by learning left field and first base, and he continues to rake in the minors. Andujar requested a trade earlier this summer, and given his Triple-A production it seems likely that a club with some available corner playing time will give him a real look.

43. Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins

44. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers

45. Zach Plesac, SP, Guardians

46. Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros

Reports this week have suggested the clubs for all four of these hurlers are open to offers. That’s not to say any of them is especially likely to go. Lopez is controllable through 2024, Plesac and Urquidy through 2025, Skubal through ’26. The Guardians and Astros are in the thick of the playoff race. The Marlins and Tigers are not, but they’re also going to try to compete next season. It seems more likely than not that each of these pitchers remains with their club beyond next Tuesday, but each team has valid reasons for listening.

The Astros and Marlins each have an enviable collection of rotation depth and could view dealing a controllable starter as the best way to land some offensive help. The Guardians have a strong pitching development pipeline and a solid number of upper minors young arms. The Tigers rotation has been decimated by injury this year, but Skubal’s amidst a breakout season on a team that’s 19 games under .500.

47. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers

48. Chad Kuhl, SP, Rockies

49. Daniel Bard, RP, Rockies

Perez, Kuhl and Bard are impending free agents on 2022 non-contenders. They’re fairly straightforward trade candidates amidst decent seasons, but they seem less likely than the rentals above them on the list to change hands. The Rangers and Perez have expressed mutual interest in a contract extension. The Rockies seem to hope for the same with Kuhl and Bard, and Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against the possibility of a major sell-off. The Rox held onto a few notable impending free agents despite having little chance of making the playoffs last summer, and they could well do so again.

50. Garrett Cooper, 1B, Marlins

The generally underrated Cooper earned an All-Star nod this season with a .279/.347/.426 showing. He’s a consistently productive right-handed hitter, and he’s playing this season on an affordable $2.5MM salary. Cooper landed on the injured list earlier this week, but he’s expressed confidence about returning when first eligible next Wednesday. He could still draw some interest, but with an additional season of arbitration eligibility, the Marlins don’t have to make a deal.

51. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

The Padres luxury tax dilemma has been covered a few times on MLBTR’s pages. The Friars have virtually no financial breathing room for midseason additions if they don’t want to exceed the $230MM base tax threshold. Dealing from their rotation surplus to free some money for upgrades elsewhere on the roster has looked like a possibility for a while. Snell, who has a 4.75 ERA and a $10MM CBT hit for the Friars, looks like the likeliest option for that kind of move. He’s under contract for next season and still striking out plenty of batters, but his overall performance in San Diego has been a bit disappointing.

52. Brad Keller, SP, Royals

Keller’s a stable back-of-the-rotation arm. He owns a 4.04 career ERA and a 4.18 mark this season while generally working as a source of about league average innings. Keller doesn’t miss bats, but he’s posted a ground-ball rate north of 50% in four of his five MLB seasons. He could appeal to a rotation-needy team with a strong defensive infield. Keller’s making $4.825MM and arbitration-eligible once more.

53. Michael A. Taylor, CF, Royals

Taylor has been one of the sport’s best defensive outfielders throughout his career. He’s never consistently produced enough at the plate to be more than a soft regular, with swing-and-miss issues his primary undoing. Taylor has dramatically cut his strikeout rate to 22.9% this season (right around league average), and his .279/.350/.402 line is a career best. Defensive metrics have been more mixed on his work than they’ve been in years past, but most clubs are still likely to view him as a plus defender. He’s making $4.5MM both this year and next, and a thin center field market could lead K.C. to sell high.

54. Lou Trivino, RP, A’s

Trivino’s ERA is ghastly, checking in a hair below 7.00. The right-hander has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 52.7% grounder rate, though, and today’s front offices will be willing to look deeper than the ugly run prevention mark. Trivino has had plenty of success keeping runs off the board in years past, and he’s spent some time as Oakland’s closer. Clubs will surely expect the .456 batting average on balls in play against him to come down, and he could still draw attention from teams looking for middle innings help. Trivino is making $3MM and arbitration-eligible through 2024, but the A’s are certainly willing to listen given their competitive window.

55. Jose Iglesias, SS, Rockies

Iglesias has had a decent bounceback year after signing a $5MM contract with the Rockies in Spring Training. He’s no longer the plus defender he was at his peak, but he’s continued to play shortstop in Colorado and could probably bounce all around the infield for a contender. Iglesias is a high-contact bat who would fit well in a utility role. He’s an impending free agent.

56. Rafael Ortega, CF, Cubs

Ortega is a journeyman outfielder who has played fairly well since getting a look with the Cubs last summer. He’s a .267/.346/.419 hitter in about a full season’s worth of playing time over the last two years. Ortega’s not a great defender in center field but he can moonlight there, and the thin market at the position could make him a fallback target for clubs looking to bolster the outfield depth. He’s not yet arbitration eligible (although he’s likely to get there this offseason as a Super Two player), but the Cubs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild since he’s already 31.

57. Christian Walker, 1B, D-Backs

The D-Backs are reportedly open to offers on Walker, although the extent of their urgency to move him is unclear. He’s controllable for two and a half seasons but already 31. Walker has been a slightly above-average hitter in three of the past four years. He has plenty of power, posts big exit velocities and crushes left-handed pitching. He’s also a low-OBP slugger who is limited to first base — although he rates excellently at the position.

58. Michael Wacha, SP, Red Sox

59. Rich Hill, SP, Red Sox

Wacha and Hill are each impending free agents who could move if the Red Sox sell some short-term pieces. They’re each having decent seasons. Wacha is carrying a 2.69 ERA through 13 starts; Hill, as he has for the past couple seasons, has been right around league average. They’d each be higher on this list were they not on the injured list at the moment — Wacha due to shoulder inflammation, Hill with a knee sprain. Hill began a rehab assignment on Thursday, and Wacha doesn’t seem far behind. Despite the injuries, they could still attract some interest as they near returns from the IL.

60. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels

Insert the old adage about saving the best for last here. The Angels have reportedly at least listened to offers on Ohtani, the reigning MVP who has captivated baseball’s global fanbase with his dominance as a hitter and pitcher alike. As with Soto, it would take an overwhelming haul of prospects in order for Ohtani to actually be traded. Unlike Soto, Ohtani feels quite unlikely to be moved — hence his back-of-the-list ranking — but teams will still try.

Ohtani, 28, is earning just $5.5MM this season and will receive a sizable raise on that number in arbitration this winter. He can be a free agent following the 2023 season. Given the team’s futility during the Ohtani/Mike Trout era and Ohtani’s outspoken desire to play for a contender, it’s fair to wonder whether the Angels have a realistic chance of extending him. Asked by The Athletic’s Sam Blum just last night about his desire to stay with the Angels long-term, Ohtani side-stepped the heart of the question and concluded his reply by stating: “…Right now, I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”

Would a team part with its top four or five prospects to add Ohtani for the next two pennant pushes? Would Angels owner Arte Moreno actually green-light the deal even if a trade partner were willing to do so? A trade seems so hard to imagine and, at the same time, perfectly logical and defensible for an Angels team with an awful farm system, crowded payroll and dwindling control over the 2021 AL MVP. He’s going to be extremely hard to pry away, but that won’t stop teams from trying.

Potential Salary Dumps of Note

  • Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: $20.625MM salary in 2022, $13.625MM salaries from 2023-25
  • Wil Myers, OF, Padres: $22.5MM salary in 2022, $20MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2023
  • Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals: $23.42MM salary in 2022, due approximately $59.8MM between 2023-24
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP, D-Backs: $23MM salaries in 2022-23, $14MM salary in 2025

Controllable Impact Players Unlikely To Move

Others of Note

Orioles: Anthony Santander, Jordan Lyles

Red Sox: Enrique Hernandez*, Matt Strahm*, Hirokazu Sawamura

Royals: Zack Greinke, Josh Staumont, Hunter Dozier

Tigers: Tucker Barnhart, Alex Lange, Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario, Michael Pineda*

Guardians: Aaron Civale, Amed Rosario

Angels: Aaron Loup, Michael Lorenzen*

Astros: Jose Siri

Athletics: Paul Blackburn, Sam Moll, Elvis Andrus, Chad Pinder

Rangers: Garrett Richards, Kole Calhoun, Brett Martin

Marlins: Joey Wendle, Jon Berti*, Brian Anderson*, Steven Okert, Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Jesus Aguilar, Elieser Hernandez

Nationals: Carl Edwards Jr., Yadiel Hernandez, Steve Cishek

Brewers: Kolten Wong, Jace Peterson, Pedro Severino

Cubs: Patrick Wisdom, Wade Miley*, Scott Effross

Reds: Kyle Farmer, Mike Minor, Jeff Hoffman

Pirates: JT Brubaker

Cardinals: Edmundo Sosa

Padres: Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet

Giants: Brandon Belt, Dominic Leone, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski

Rockies: Alex Colome, C.J. Cron, Carlos Estevez

D-Backs: Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, Jake McCarthy, Jordan Luplow

*Denotes player currently on the injured list

Angels Have Listened To Offers On Shohei Ohtani; Trade Seen As Unlikely

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A deadline season that already has one of the highest-profile trade candidates ever in Juan Soto could add another to the list. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that while a deal is ultimately unlikely, the Angels have not turned away interested teams as they’ve made inquiries and submitted trade proposals for two-way star and reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. The Post duo spoke with three executives whose teams have reached out to the Angels, all of whom characterized the chances of a trade as extremely low due to an unsurprisingly enormous asking price.

The mere notion of an Ohtani trade will ignite a frenzy of speculation and wishful thinking — and with good reason. The 28-year-old is in the midst of yet another incredible season, having pitched to a 2.81 ERA with a 36.4% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate through 99 1/3 innings. He’s also hitting .254/.349/.486 with 21 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Dating back to last season, Ohtani has hit .256/.363/.550 with 67 home runs in 1052 plate appearances while also pitching 229 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 32.3% strikeout rate. It’s a legitimately historic performance, the likes of which current fans have not seen in their lifetimes.

That the Angels will at least listen is certainly of note and is only understandable in light of yet another disastrous season. Despite Ohtani and three-time MVP Mike Trout anchoring the roster, the Halos are sitting on a 42-57 record and find themselves already all but eliminated from postseason contention. Incredibly, that’s a common refrain in Anaheim, where the Angels haven’t reached the playoffs since way back in 2014 — three seasons prior to Ohtani’s MLB debut. Repeated injuries up and down the pitching staff have regularly coupled with immediate declines from high-priced stars like Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon to leave the Angels with a top-heavy roster that has rarely even sniffed playoff contention.

Ohtani, meanwhile, has arguably been the game’s greatest bargain since arriving on the scene. Rather than wait until he was old enough to qualify as a professional player on the international market (25 years old), he instead opted to make the jump to Major League Baseball at just 23 years old. In doing so, Ohtani knowingly subjected himself to the international bonus pool restrictions that govern MLB teams’ signing of amateur players, leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in order to accelerate his path to the world’s top league.

Shocking as that was at the time, Ohtani could yet find himself positioned for a historic contract before long. He’s currently playing on just a $5MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, but he’ll receive a presumably massive raise this winter and is eligible to become a free agent following the 2023 season. Any team submitting offers for Ohtani will do so knowing they can only control him for one and a half seasons, and that the right to do so will cost them an enormous segment of the farm system. One executive who spoke to Heyman and Sherman indicated that the Angels “want something like your top four prospects” in exchange for Ohtani’s final season-plus of club control.

With that remaining control dwindling, however, the Angels have a dilemma. On the one hand, it’s easy to say they should be willing to do whatever is necessary to ink Ohtani to the historic contract extension he’d surely command. At the same time, the Angels already have both Trout and Rendon on the books at more than $35MM annually for the foreseeable future — Rendon through 2026, Trout through 2030. Ohtani would undoubtedly add another annual salary of more than $35MM to the ledger (perhaps well north of that sum).

That’d be a justifiable expenditure, but it takes two to strike a deal. Ohtani has spoken multiple times in the past about his desire to play for a contending club and reach the MLB postseason, and the Angels have instead stumbled through a difficult-to-fathom stretch of futility during his time with the organization. Asked just last night about his desire to remain with the Angels long-term, Ohtani told The Athletic’s Sam Blum:

“Regardless of where I’m playing, I want to give it my all, try to win the ball game that’s right in front of me. I’m with the Angels right now, and I’m very thankful for what they’ve done. I really love the team. I love my teammates. Right now I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”

While that’s far from a direct declaration that he hopes to be traded, it’s of course notable that, when presented with the opportunity, Ohtani did not express a hope to remain with the Angels for the long haul. Perhaps a record-setting offer would still lead to an agreement, but that can’t be known. It’s generally fair to assume that when discussing MLB contracts, money wins out at the end of the day. As previously noted, however, Ohtani has already once forgone what might have been a $200MM+ contract as an international free agent to instead sign for a $2.315MM signing bonus — which wasn’t even the top available bonus to him at the time of his original agreement with the Angels in 2017.

Even if a deal is highly unlikely to come together in such a short amount of time, it’s nevertheless a fascinating wrinkle added to what’s already shaping up to be one of the most interesting deadlines in MLB history. There’s been almost no movement of note to this point, which generally sets the stage for unbridled chaos in the final 48 to 72 hours leading up to Tuesday’s 6pm ET deadline.

Red Sox Inform Xander Bogaerts They Have No Intention Of Trading Him

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Red Sox executives have told Xander Bogaerts they won’t trade him this summer, the star shortstop told reporters tonight (via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). Asked whether he’s been given personal assurance from the front office he would not be dealt, Bogaerts replied, “Yeah. I don’t know if I should say that, but I hope I don’t get in trouble. But yeah, much better like that. Communication is always huge in everything in life. To get that type of feedback is beneficial, I would say.”

It’s not a surprising revelation, as recent reports have suggested the Red Sox weren’t likely to make Bogaerts available. CEO Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom have each publicly stated there’s been no internal consideration of dealing the four-time All-Star, with Bloom adding they “don’t plan to” have those conversations. That they’ve apparently reinforced those sentiments in private with Bogaerts seems to solidify that he won’t change teams before next Tuesday’s deadline.

Bogaerts can (and almost certainly will) opt out of the final three years of his contract this offseason. Boston took tonight’s contest from the Guardians to climb back to .500, but their 50-50 mark still has them narrowly behind the Orioles at the bottom of the AL East. More importantly, they’re 3 1/2 games behind the Rays, current owners of the final Wild Card spot, with Cleveland and Baltimore also in between. Even after tonight’s win, Boston has only taken seven of their 24 games this month. That raises some questions about how Bloom and his staff will approach the deadline.

Even had Bloom and company wanted to move the slugging infielder, executing a trade would’ve been easier said than done. There’d have surely been no shortage of interest in a 29-year-old star shortstop, but Bogaerts has full no-trade protection. Bogaerts could’ve dictated where he’d have been dealt or blocked a move entirely, but he nevertheless seems relieved to hear he won’t have to consider those possibilities.

Bogaerts is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer if he opts out this winter, so the Red Sox would stand to collect a compensatory draft choice if he signs elsewhere. The more immediate concern is whether the club can right the ship over the final couple months and more closely resemble last year’s 92-win team that earned a trip to the ALCS.

The Red Sox’s deadline approach can still go in myriad ways. Boston has a handful of impending free agents who’d be in-demand trade targets. They’re reportedly listening to offers on J.D. Martinez, who’d be one of the best hitters available. Nathan Eovaldi would be arguably the top rental starting pitcher on the market. Catcher Christian Vázquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, and reliever Matt Strahm have all had decent seasons, although each of Wacha, Hill and Strahm is currently on the injured list.

Should Bloom and his staff look to add to the roster, the bullpen stands out as an obvious possible target. Wacha and Hill aren’t far off returning, but the recent Chris Sale injury could lead the team to look into rotation upgrades. First base and right field, meanwhile, have each been problem areas all season. Adding a corner bat or two to bolster the lineup depth would be a sensible goal. The Sox haven’t tipped their hand much about the direction they plan to take, but in either event, it appears the fanbase can count on Bogaerts remaining at shortstop for the final few months of the season.

Mets Acquire Tyler Naquin, Phillip Diehl From Reds

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The Reds and Mets have lined up on a trade sending outfielder Tyler Naquin and minor league reliever Phillip Diehl from Cincinnati to New York. In exchange, the Reds are acquiring a pair of low minors prospects, right-hander Jose Acuña and second baseman Hector Rodríguez. Both clubs have announced the agreement.

Naquin had been one of the more obvious trade candidates around the league. The 31-year-old is set to reach free agency at the end of the season, so there was little reason for the last-place Reds not to look to move him for future value. He’ll head to Queens as the second left-handed bat the Mets have added in as many weeks. New York picked up first baseman/designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach in a deal with the Pirates last Friday.

A former first-round pick of Cleveland, Naquin had an excellent rookie season back in 2016. His offensive productivity was up-and-down for the rest of his time there, but he’s settled in as a solid platoon bat over the past two years. Naquin signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati over the 2020-21 offseason, and he cracked the Opening Day roster last year. That paved for the way for a season and a half as a Red, in which he posted a .262/.324/.462 line through 655 plate appearances.

That overall offensive productivity is a hair above average, and Naquin has been quite good when holding the platoon advantage. He’s popped 23 homers in 542 plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the past couple seasons, compiling a .278/.338/.503 mark against righties. That power has translated outside of the Reds hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and the Mets figure to leverage him as a platoon player down the stretch.

The Mets have one of the game’s best outfields, with a trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte manning the grass. Canha and Marte will continue to pick up the lion’s share of playing time in the corners, but Naquin complements those veteran right-handed bats. He’ll also supplement a DH group that includes Vogelbach and Dominic Smith from the left side, as well as the righty-swinging J.D. Davis.

Naquin’s acquisition seemingly increases the likelihood that at least one of Smith or Davis gets dealt before next Tuesday’s deadline. The Mets have been on the hunt for offensive help for weeks, largely due to dissatisfaction with Smith’s and Davis’ performance. Adding a pair of DH/bench bats to an already full outfield and with superstar Pete Alonso at first base further clutters that group. Each of Smith and Davis has minor league options remaining, and the Mets have already optioned Smith this year. That’s a possibility if the club simply wants to stockpile as much depth as possible, but it also stands to reason they’d be open to trade opportunities.

The Mets will seemingly add a bit of money to the payroll, as there’s no indication cash considerations are changing hands. Naquin is playing this season on a $4.025MM salary, around $1.525MM of which is still to be paid. The Mets luxury tax figure is narrowly above the $290MM threshold, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a team that exceeds $290MM (the fourth and highest tier of CBT penalization) is taxed at an 80% rate for every dollar thereafter.

In addition to Naquin, the Mets add some non-roster bullpen depth. Diehl, who was outrighted off the Reds 40-man roster in May, won’t immediately occupy a spot on New York’s 40-man. He’s spent the bulk of the season with the Reds top affiliate in Louisville, working to a 4.24 ERA through 23 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old has an excellent 30.6% strikeout rate against a decent 8.2% walk percentage, although his fly-ball oriented approach has made him fairly home run prone.

New York’s left-handed relief depth is thin, with Joely Rodríguez and recent waiver claim Sam Clay the only two bullpen southpaws on the 40-man roster. Clay has been hit hard in four appearances with Triple-A Syracuse and has yet to appear in an MLB game as a Met. Rodríguez, acquired from the Yankees shortly before the season, owns a 5.93 ERA across 27 1/3 innings on the year. He’s striking out batters and inducing grounders at a decent clip, but he’s also walked a massive 16.3% of batters faced. Left-handed relief help figures to continue to be a target over the next few days even with Diehl bolstering the organizational depth.

To create space for Naquin on the 40-man roster, the Mets announced they’ve designated reliever R.J. Alvarez for assignment. The righty was selected onto the roster earlier this month but didn’t wind up making an MLB appearance. He’s had a nice season in Syracuse, working to a 3.16 ERA through 31 1/3 frames. The Mets will presumably place the 31-year-old on waivers in the coming days.

The Reds, meanwhile, add some talent to the lower levels. Rodríguez, an 18-year-old infielder, was recently ranked by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs as the #30 prospect in the Mets organization. Longenhagen writes that the left-handed hitter has excellent bat control, but he has limited power upside in a 5’8″ frame.  He was recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. Acuña, 19, was recently promoted to Low-A. He has never appeared on an organizational prospect list at FanGraphs or Baseball America.

It’s the first move of what’s likely to be a busy few days for Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are the club’s top trade candidates, but they also have a host of rental bats who should generate interest. Beyond Naquin, Cincinnati could market impending free agent hitters Brandon Drury, Donovan Solano and Tommy Pham to contenders.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Mets were acquiring Diehl. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were acquiring Naquin. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the prospect return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Sign Aaron Ashby To Five-Year Extension

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The Brewers have announced a five-year contract extension with left-hander Aaron Ashby, running through the 2027 and including club options for 2028 and 2029.  Ashby will earn $20.5MM over the five guaranteed years of his extension, as per Joel Sherman of The New York Post (Twitter link).  He can more than double that total if the contract is maxed out, as Sherman notes that another $25.5MM is available if both options are exercised and Ashby hits all his escalators.  Ashby is represented by Turner-Gary Sports.

Robert Murray of FanSided reports the specific breakdown of terms (on Twitter). The young southpaw receives a $1MM signing bonus, and the year-by-year salary breakdown is as follows:

2023: $1MM
2024: $1.25MM
2025: $3.25MM
2026: $5.5MM
2027:$7.5MM

There’s a $1MM buyout on the 2028 option, which is valued at $9MM. The ’29 option is valued at $13MM.

The extension only cements Ashby’s place as an important piece of the Brewers’ future, and it also gives the 24-year-old some guaranteed money and security early in his career.  Ashby (the nephew of former big leaguer Andy Ashby) was a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, and he moved quickly through the minors, winning the Brewers’ minor league Pitcher Of The Year honors in 2019 and then making his MLB debut in 2021.

Pitching as both a starter and reliever over his two seasons in the Show, Ashby has a 4.56 ERA, 58% grounder rate, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate.  The unimpressive walk total is really the only blemish on Ashby’s resume, as other advanced metrics (including a career 3.40 SIERA and only a .291 xwOBA this season) indicate that his ERA is a bit misleading.  A .339 BABIP this year, for instance, weighs heavier on a groundball-heavy pitcher like Ashby.

Still, there is obviously a lot for the Brewers to like with his performance to date, and Ashby has moved from swingman to full-fledged starter in the wake of injuries in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser are still on the injured list, though Peralta is set to begin a rehab assignment this weekend and Houser is expected back sometime in August.

With Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff both getting more expensive in their arbitration years and both scheduled for free agency after the 2024 season, it remains to be seen how the Brewers will address their rotation over the long term.  Eric Lauer will also be a free agent that same winter, and Lauer is raising his own price tag with a strong performance in 2022.  In locking up Ashby and Peralta to extensions, president of baseball operations David Stearns has already planted some cornerstones for a possible future without any of their other three starters, and the franchise’s proven ability to find and develop pitching continues to be a key factor in the Brewers’ ability to compete.

Peralta’s extension is an obvious comp for Ashby’s deal.  Signed back in February 2020, Peralta (with just over a year of MLB service time) inked a deal also consisting of five guaranteed years and two club option years, except worth $15.5MM in guaranteed money and $14.5MM more over the option seasons.  At the time, Peralta was also a swingman who had yet to fully establish himself as a rotation fixture, and Ashby’s larger guarantee could reflect his better big league results and perhaps simply two-plus years of salary inflation.

Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer’s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.

Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.

Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.

The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.

Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.

Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.

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