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Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer’s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.

Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.

Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.

The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.

Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.

Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.

Astros Willing To Listen To Offers On Controllable Starting Pitching

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July 28: Houston would seek center field and/or catching help that is controlled beyond the current season in any deals for Urquidy or other cost-controlled starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. As Rosenthal points out, many of the obvious cost-controlled options at those positions (e.g. Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, Athletics catcher Sean Murphy) play on teams that would not necessarily be targeting arb-eligible players with only three seasons of control remaining.

Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ’Stros.

Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.

July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.

A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ’Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.

Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.

It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).

None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.

It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).

For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.

Yankees Acquire Andrew Benintendi From Royals

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The Yankees and Royals have made the biggest move of deadline season to date. New York announced an agreement to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from Kansas City in exchange for pitching prospects Beck Way, T.J. Sikkema and Chandler Champlain.

Benintendi has been one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates for the past few months. The Royals entered 2022 with designs on competing, but they stumbled to a 16-32 record through the end of May. That made Kansas City an obvious deadline seller, and an impending free agent like Benintendi likely to change uniforms.

New York adds a contact-oriented bat to their outfield mix. Benintendi owns a .321/.389/.399 line on the year, walking at a strong 10.1% clip while only punching out in 13.5% of his trips to the plate. He’s only connected on three home runs, but Benintendi leads the majors with 91 singles and has picked up 14 doubles. He hasn’t looked like the 15-20 homer bat he was during his early seasons with the Red Sox, but he’s made contact on a strong 82.6% of his swings.

Benintendi’s production has been propped up by a career-high .368 batting average on balls in play. As a line drive hitter who uses the entire field, he typically generates solid results on batted balls, although it’s unlikely the Yankees are anticipating his 2022 mark remaining quite so high. Even if his BABIP regresses closer to his .325 career figure, his plate discipline and bat control should support a solid on-base percentage.

Those plus bat-to-ball skills contrast Benintendi sharply with the player whom he’s likely to displace from the lineup, Joey Gallo. New York’s biggest deadline pickup last summer, Gallo has struggled mightily since landing in the Bronx. He’s a .160/.293/.371 hitter in 498 plate appearances as a Yankee, striking out at a massive 38.4% clip over that stretch. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances this season, Gallo has the third-highest strikeout rate (38.1%) and third-lowest rate of contact on swings (62.2%).

The Yankees are now set to roll out an outfield of Benintendi, MVP candidate Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks — owner of a massive .333/.471/.593 line this month after a slow start to the season — on most days. Giancarlo Stanton is the primary designated hitter, although he landed on the injured list yesterday. New York has already begun to cut back Gallo’s playing time while working the scorching hot Matt Carpenter into the corner outfield mix, and tonight’s acquisition is the firmest signal yet the Yankees are prepared to squeeze Gallo out entirely. It stands to reason they’ll try to find a taker for him in trade before next Tuesday’s deadline.

Judge has adequately handled a move from right to center field this year, leaving Hicks and Benintendi to play the corners. The latter has played exclusively left field since landing in Kansas City’s spacious home ballpark, rating well in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast’s Outs Above Average has pegged him as exactly a scratch defender in each of the past two years. He should add an adequate to above-average glove in the outfield while offering a notable improvement over Gallo’s recent work at the plate. It’ll be a boost to a lineup that already led the majors with 523 runs scored.

That the Yankees pulled the trigger on a Benintendi deal is sure to raise a few eyebrows for an off-field reason. He was placed on the restricted list before the Royals recent series in Toronto, indicating he’d not been vaccinated against COVID-19 at the time. That renders him unavailable for series in Toronto barring a change in his vaccination status or the removal of the ongoing prohibition of unvaccinated athletes crossing the border. Reports shortly thereafter emerged the Yankees could be dissuaded from pursuing him due to concerns about his availability.

That obviously proved not to be the case in the end. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY each suggest (Twitter links) that some close to Benintendi believe he’s now willing to be vaccinated. Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of the Athletic indicate that vaccination status didn’t come up in talks between the Yankees and Royals front offices (Twitter link). Whether that’s because the Yankees anticipate he’ll eventually be eligible to play in Toronto or whether they’ve just decided to accept his possible absence for a few games isn’t clear.

The Yankees, who ironically open a four-game series against the Royals tomorrow, only have three regular season games remaining in Toronto. With an 11 1/2 game cushion over the Jays in the AL East, a three-game absence — if it comes to that — seem unlikely to have much of an effect on the regular season standings, although it could be relevant in the event the Yankees and Jays meet in the playoffs.

Benintendi is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary, around $3.3MM of which will be paid out through the remainder of the season. The teams didn’t make any mention of cash considerations, so it seems the Yankees will assume the remainder of that tab. New York’s luxury tax payroll now sits just under $265MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They’re paying a 20% tax on their first $20MM over the $230MM base threshold, with a 32% fee on every dollar spent between $250MM and $270MM. If they exceed $270MM via future trades, they’d owe a 62.5% tax on any money up to $290MM (with higher fees thereafter). It’s a franchise-record level of spending for the Yankees, who seem likely to explore both rotation and bullpen upgrades over the next few days.

Turning to the Royals return, they’ll bring in a trio of lower minors arms. Way, Sikkema and Champlain were each ranked among the Yankees top 30 prospects at Baseball America, with Way topping the group at #13 in the system. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN concurs that Way is the headliner of the return, tweeting that he looks like a possible mid-rotation starter.

A fourth-round pick in 2020, Way has spent this season at High-A Hudson Valley. He’s worked 72 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 27.6% of opposing hitters. The 22-year-old righty (23 next month) has posted strong ground-ball numbers throughout his early pro career, and he’s walking a career-low 9% of batters faced. Way’s control has previously been spotty, but BA credits him with a mid-90’s fastball and a promising sweeping slider.

Sikkema was the 38th overall pick in the 2019 draft. The canceled minor league season in 2020 wiped out his first full professional season, and he missed all of last year on the injured list. That confluence of factors means he’s made just 15 appearances as a professional, but he owns a 2.48 ERA with a huge 38% strikeout percentage and a strong 6.3% walk rate through 36 1/3 innings in High-A this year. BA praises his strike-throwing ability and suggests his lower arm slot adds some deception to his delivery. He’ll have to be added to the Royals 40-man roster at the end of the season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Champlain was a ninth-round draftee out of USC last season. The 23-year-old has spent the entire year with Low-A Tampa, posting a 4.30 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate against a 6.2% walk percentage in 16 outings against generally younger competition. Baseball America credits him with a mid-90s fastball and a promising slider.

The Benintendi deal will be the first of plenty of dominoes to fall over the next few days. Rosenthal and Stark report that the Blue Jays, Brewers and Dodgers were among the teams that had some interest in Benintendi, and it stands to reason the remainder of that group could look for other ways to add to their outfield. Ben Gamel, David Peralta and Tyler Naquin are among the other lefty-hitting rental outfielders who should be available, although none seems likely to draw as much interest as Benintendi.

Jack Curry of the YES Network was first to report the Yankees were acquiring Benintendi. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals were receiving three minor leaguers, whom Joel Sherman of the New York Post initially specified were Way, Sikkema and Champlain.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Juan Soto

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Juan Soto has been the talk of deadline season since reports emerged that the Nationals were entertaining dealing him in the wake of a rejected extension offer. The young superstar will continue to dominate headlines up until he’s either traded or next Tuesday’s deadline passes, with plenty of teams relishing the chance to acquire a 23-year-old who is already perhaps the game’s best hitter.

There’s been plenty of speculation about which teams could be involved, and Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote yesterday that some rival executives believe the Cardinals and Padres are the clubs with the best chance of prying Soto out of Washington. That’s more informed speculation than an indication anything is close between the Nats and either club. Both the Padres and Cardinals have win-now mentalities and a group of high-upside controllable players both at and below the major league level. That’s also true of clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners, among others, and Soto’s two and a half years of remaining arbitration eligibility means the Nats don’t have to take the best offer on the table over the next few days.

Both Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat write that the Cardinals have considered making a push for Soto. Jones reports that talks between the St. Louis and Washington front offices have already been underway, with rookie second baseman Nolan Gorman on the table.

According to Jones, the St. Louis front office has proposed building a return package around Gorman in hopes of keeping at least one of minor league infielders Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn. Walker is perhaps the organization’s top young player, checking in 7th overall on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects update. Winn, meanwhile, places 65th on that list. They’re two of the top three St. Louis prospects, with left-hander Matthew Liberatore — who has made his first seven MLB appearances this year — checking in 35th. (Triple-A outfielder Alec Burleson and Double-A pitcher Gordon Graceffo also placed towards the back of the top 100).

Gorman, of course, would still be a top prospect himself if he hadn’t exhausted his eligibility this season. The 22-year-old entered the year as a consensus top minor league talent in his own right. Keith Law of the Athletic placed him slightly ahead of Walker as St. Louis’ top prospect entering the season. Baseball America and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN each gave the edge to Walker but slotted Gorman second in the system and among the sport’s top 50 farmhands. Gorman proceeded to tear the cover off the ball with Triple-A Memphis, blasting 15 home runs in 34 games before getting his first big league call in May.

Through 54 major league games entering play Wednesday, the left-handed hitting Gorman has a .223/.299/.411 showing. The high-power, low-OBP combination is about what was anticipated. Gorman’s huge power numbers in Memphis came with a lofty 34% strikeout rate, and he’s gone down on strikes 32.5% of the time thus far as a big leaguer.

One shouldn’t expect Gorman to be a finished product at this point. He just turned 22 years old a few months ago. “Merely” hitting at a slightly above-average level in the majors at that age is quite promising. Gorman has predictably not rated highly as a defender at second base, but the 6’1″ infielder was forced to the keystone by the presence of Nolan Arenado. Gorman could probably fare better with an opportunity at his natural position at the hot corner, although his power upside at the dish will always be his calling card.

Promising as Gorman has been, it’s also understandable if the Cardinals would prefer to center a possible Soto return around him rather than Walker. The latter, a first-round pick in 2020, has played his way to Double-A Springfield despite having just turned 20 years old. Walker is excelling at that advanced level, hitting .304/.393/.486 with eight home runs, a quality 11.5% walk rate and a manageable 22.3% strikeout percentage. Those excellent numbers only reinforce scouting evaluations that suggest Walker could be a middle-of-the-order bat in the not too distant future. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs credited Walker with possible top-of-the-scale power (an 80 on the 20-80 scale) this month, writing that he’s posted eye-popping exit velocities in the minors despite his youth. Like Gorman, Walker has come up as a third baseman.

Winn, also 20, went in the second round of that 2020 draft. A two-way player in high school, he’s converted to shortstop as a professional. He retains the elite arm strength he showed on the mound, and Longenhagen praised his combination of bat speed, athleticism and contact skills. He’s split the season between High-A Peoria and Springfield, hitting .298/.363/.484 across 357 plate appearances.

Whether a Gorman-centered return could get the ball rolling in talks for the Nationals isn’t clear. Washington holds plenty of leverage in Soto talks, and the early reported asking price has been for a return of five or more controllable big leaguers and/or prospects. Even if the Nationals had interest in Gorman as a headliner, St. Louis would surely have to additionally include multiple young players (one or more likely from the aforementioned group of top 100 talents in the system) to convince Washington general manager Mike Rizzo to pull the trigger.

Jones writes that, at some point in negotiations with the Cardinals, the Nats sought to include left-hander Patrick Corbin in talks as a means of offsetting salary. Corbin is under contract for roughly $60MM over the 2023-24 seasons, an unappealing sum for a pitcher with a 6.02 ERA through 20 starts on the year. Rizzo flatly rejected the idea the Nationals have sought or would seek to include Corbin’s contract in a Soto deal during a chat on 106.7 FM radio in Washington this morning.

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” Rizzo told “The Sports Junkies.” “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.“

Rizzo: Nationals Won’t “Dilute” Trade Returns By Attaching Bad Contracts

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As soon as it reported that the Nationals were willing to listen to offers on star outfielder Juan Soto, there was speculation about the possibility of utilizing Soto’s unprecedented trade value to dump some or all of the $59MM owed to Patrick Corbin in 2023-24. (Stephen Strasburg’s name was also a popular source of speculation, but he has full no-trade protection, making that scenario even less likely.) In his weekly radio appearance on 106.7 FM’s “The Sports Junkies,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo plainly stated that he will not water down his return for any player, Soto or otherwise, by insisting that a trade partner take on an undesirable contract (link to full audio of the 21-minute interview).

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” said Rizzo. “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.”

Fans hoping to see their favorite team absorb the Corbin contract in order to reduce the prospect cost of acquiring Soto can’t be thrilled by that declaration, but it’s the sensible course of action for Rizzo and his staff to take if they indeed follow through on a Soto trade — be it this summer or in the offseason. Rizzo did candidly acknowledge that the Nationals are discussing trades involving Soto and appear to have legitimate interest from several other clubs. Whether a team will meet a historic asking price (reportedly as many as six prospects and/or young big leaguers), of course, remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly, Rizzo did not offer any specifics pertaining to ongoing Soto discussions.

“When we offered Juan this contract, with his agent’s knowledge, we told him when the deal was turned down, ’We’re going to have to explore all our options,'” Rizzo continued. “That’s all we’ve ever said. I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t explore all the options now presented to us. We’ve got pretty good options. We’ve got a talented Juan Soto for two and a half more seasons. That’s Option A — it’s a good one. But we also have to think about options B and C. My job is to make this organization a consummate winner again, like we did from 2012 to 2019. I have to figure out ways, as the caretaker of this franchise, to make us a championship organization for a long time to come.”

Taking a step further back, Rizzo lamented that his team’s reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer to Soto became public. The GM stated that it “unequivocally” was not leaked by him or other members of the Nationals front office.

“[The leak] didn’t help us in anything we were trying to do,” said Rizzo. “It didn’t help us keep a good relationship with Juan, and it didn’t help us with any kind of leverage at the trade deadline. So it really hurt us that the information got out.”

Speaking further on the matter, Rizzo acknowledged that while reports of prior extension offers to Soto had contained inaccurate terms, the reported 15-year, $440MM terms of his team’s latest proposal were indeed accurate. He added that he doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward Soto for the choice to turn down what would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history, but also pushed back on suggestions that Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM annual value should have any bearing on the AAV in a potential Soto deal. As Rizzo points out, a short-term deal for a 37-year-old pitcher is an entirely different beast than a 15-year offer to a 23-year-old who still has a pair of trips through the arbitration process remaining.

There was, of course, no firm declaration that Soto would be traded. Rizzo emphasized that the Nats are “going to have to get the deal that we want … that gets us the opportunity to become a championship organization faster than not trading him.” On the Lerner family’s looming sale of the Nationals franchise, Rizzo stated that the potential ownership change “has not factored one bit into the decision-making process.”

Fans of the Nats and virtually any other team will want to check out the whole interview, as Rizzo’s candor is both fascinating and uncommon among current baseball operations leaders throughout the league. Beyond the Soto drama, Rizzo also discusses the team’s recent draft, his respect for and relationship with the Boras Corporation, the broader state of the team’s ongoing “reboot,” and the confidence he has in his plan to engineer a swift turnaround for the organization.

Guardians Open To Dealing Controllable Starters

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With the demand for starting pitching at its annual peak, the Guardians are open to opportunistically dealing from their big league rotation, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are the two names they’re most willing to consider, and Passan adds that while Cleveland will typically listen to offers for any player, the ask on top starter Shane Bieber would be “exorbitant.”

To be clear, Cleveland’s willingness to entertain offers on some controllable starters doesn’t by any means signal a white flag for the season. They’ve walked this fine line for years, dealing from deep and talented rotations to align with ownership’s payroll restrictions while leaning heavily on their uncanny ability to develop high-quality replacements. In the past three calendar years, we’ve seen Cleveland trade Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco — yet the Guardians still have a collective 4.05 rotation ERA and a trio of homegrown arms with ERAs of 3.75 or better.

The 27-year-old Plesac will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three years beyond the current campaign. He’s made 18 starts and tallied 99 innings of 4.09 ERA ball, striking out a tepid 17% of his opponents against a more impressive 6.1% walk rate. Through 412 2/3 big league innings, he’s punched out 18.6% of the batters he’s faced, walked just 6.2% of them and kept 41.9% of batted balls against him on the ground — a bit shy of league average in that regard.

Plesac briefly looked as though he was blossoming into a more impactful starter with a strong run of eight starts in the shortened 2020 season, but he’s generally looked like a capable fourth starter outside that quick glimpse. There’s plenty of value in three-plus years of a solid mid- or back-of-the-rotation starter — particularly one who’s been durable. Plesac has been able to avoid any arm injuries of note to this point in his career, though the team couldn’t have been pleased last season when he broke his thumb while “aggressively ripping off his shirt” (manager Terry Francona’s words) following a poor start.

Civale, also 27, would be something of a buy-low candidate for other clubs. The right-hander looked to have cemented himself in Cleveland’s rotation after tossing 256 innings of 3.76 ERA ball from 2019-21, but he’s on the shelf right now with a wrist sprain and has had poor results when healthy enough to take the mound. Civale’s strikeout, walk and home-run rates are all right in line with his solid career averages, but he’s still sporting an ugly 6.17 ERA in 54 frames this season.

Part of those struggles stem from a bloated .350 average on balls in play — well higher than the career .275 mark he carried into the season. He’s also been hampered by a 59.1% strand rate that looks anomalous, particularly when compared to the 76.3% mark he posted from 2019-21. However, while those traits point to some poor luck, this season’s struggles can’t be blamed solely on those oddities. Civale is also yielding the highest average exit velocity, opponents’ barrel rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate of his career, and his already modest fastball is down from an average of 91.5 mph (2019-21) to 90.7 mph in 2022.

As with Plesac, Civale is controlled for three years beyond the current season. The Guardians might be selling at his value’s all-time low if they were to move him right now, which makes a deal somewhat tough to imagine. With a strong finish to the season and/or a strong first-half showing in 2023, Civale’s trade value would be considerably higher than it presently is. Then again, if the front office is bearish on his chances of a turnaround, now would arguably be the time to act.

The mere mention of Bieber’s name in anything trade-adjacent will surely excite fans of other clubs and lead to speculation, though it’s unlikely a trade involving the 2020 Cy Young winner will actually come together. Bieber’s average fastball has dipped from 94.3 mph in that 2020 peak to a pedestrian 91.9 mph in 2022, and advocates for a trade might feel that since he hasn’t matched that brilliant Cy Young form, the Guardians ought to sell high.

However, even with a lesser fastball, Bieber has pitched to a 3.37 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 208 1/3 innings since Opening Day 2021. Perhaps he’s not quite the dominant ace he appeared to be a couple years ago, but he’s still a well above-average starting pitcher with excellent command and at least average strikeout and ground-ball abilities.

It’s feasible, if not downright likely, that the always payroll-conscious Guardians eventually trade Bieber, as his salary will continue to climb throughout the arbitration process. He’s earning $6MM this season, could jump north of $10MM in 2023 and would receive another raise in 2024 before reaching free agency at the end of that season. They could always revisit a potential extension with the 27-year-old, hoping to pair him with the recently extended Jose Ramirez as a franchise cornerstone, but even if a long-term deal can’t be reached, a trade when Bieber is closer to free agency is likelier than a deal in the midst of a summer in which Cleveland finds itself just 2.5 games behind the division-leading Twins.

Given that proximity to the division lead, it’ll surely surprise many fans to hear that the Guardians are open to trading from the big league rotation at all. However, moving a starting pitcher like Plesac at peak value would allow them to further stockpile one of the best farm systems in the industry and/or add immediate Major League help at another position of need. With Konnor Pilkington holding his own in the big leagues so far, righty Peyton Battenfield touting a 3.32 ERA in 108 1/3 Triple-A frames, and a deep reservoir of pitching talent throughout its loaded farm system, Cleveland may feel it has the depth to weaken the back of its rotation. Speculatively, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti could also pull off some sleight of hand by dealing Plesac for sizable prospect capital and/or big league help and then immediately replacing him with a rental (e.g. Jose Quintana) whose prospect cost would be lesser than that of the just-traded controllable starter.

With so many teams in the market for pitching, it’s only natural for the Guardians to listen to offers on some of their current starters. This is a page right out of the playbook from Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff, and we’ve seen them execute similar scenarios nicely in the past. A trade of a Cleveland starter shouldn’t be considered a given, but looking at the names they’ve shipped out over the past few years, it also shouldn’t come as a shock, either.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

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The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs

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The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.

More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.

Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.

Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.

Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.

Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.

Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.

The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.

Tigers Open To Trade Offers On Tarik Skubal

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The Tigers have informed rival teams they’re willing to consider trade offers on breakout starter Tarik Skubal, report Ken Rosenthal and Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic. The 25-year-old southpaw marks a fascinating new entrant into the summer trade market with the deadline exactly one week away.

Detroit being willing to listen to offers on Skubal certainly doesn’t mean he’s destined to change teams. Rather, it seems the Tigers are generally taking a wide-open approach to the deadline as they weather another non-competitive season. One rival executive tells the Athletic the Detroit front office has signaled “that just about everyone is available.” It seems likely general manager Al Avila and his front office are fielding offers on virtually the entire roster more as a matter of due diligence than in an effort to earnestly ship out possible long-term core pieces like Skubal.

Even if a trade coming together over the next week remains a longshot, it’s noteworthy the Detroit front office seemingly won’t dismiss offers on Skubal out of hand. There’s certainly no urgency for the Tigers to deal him. Skubal remains controllable through the end of the 2026 season, and he won’t even qualify for arbitration until the end of next year. Avila and his staff would have to be overwhelmed with an offer to pull the trigger. Even with all hopes of competing this season dashed, the Tigers anticipate getting back into the playoff mix during Skubal’s window of club control — perhaps as soon as next year.

The Tigers have been rebuilding for essentially the entirety of Avila’s tenure atop the front office. Their last playoff berth came in 2014, and they’re on their way to a sixth straight losing record. They expected to be more competitive this season, but they’ve been hit with a laundry list of absences on the pitching side and a virtually unanimous underperformance from the lineup.

Skubal has been one of the lone bright spots, as he’s looked like a possible top-of-the-rotation starter at his best. The Seattle University product has posted a 3.88 ERA across 106 2/3 innings. He’s punched out an above-average 25.5% of opponents, limited walks to a stingy 6.2% clip and induced grounders on a solid 47.8% of batted balls. Skubal has averaged north of 94 MPH on his fastball and induced swinging strikes on 12% of his offerings, the 14th-best rate among 52 starters with 100+ innings. Those numbers alone are strong, but the 6’3″ hurler looked like a bona fide ace through the season’s first two months. He carried a 2.44 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout percentage through the end of May before scuffling in June.

Even if Skubal is more of a mid-rotation type than the #1-caliber arm he resembled earlier in the year, he’s still a plenty valuable player. The Tigers have envisioned coming out of their rebuild with a star-studded rotation anchored around Skubal, former top ten picks Casey Mize and Matt Manning, free agent signee Eduardo Rodríguez,and Spencer Turnbull. Each of Mize and Manning has had their 2022 season more or less wiped out by injury to this point, and the former underwent Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss most of next year as a result. Rodríguez has been out for a while attending to a personal matter. Turnbull was always expected to be out for the bulk of the year after undergoing his own TJS last summer. That’s left Skubal as the sole healthy, reliable member of the rotation for much of the year, and the Tigers could build around him for 2023 and beyond.

At the same time, there’s little harm for the front office in at least evaluating all options. Skubal’s control window and affordability means virtually every team could eye him as a possible trade target. Clubs don’t have to be in the mix for the playoffs this year to look into his availability, since he’d still be controllable for an additional four seasons.

Teams like the Orioles and Rangers, for instance, are unlikely to reach the postseason this year (although Baltimore has hung around the Wild Card race), but have been mentioned as teams that could simultaneously look to move players on shorter-term deals while trying to acquire pitchers controllable beyond this season. In a separate piece, Rosenthal wrote this morning that Texas is continuing to seek a controllable starter before the deadline. Skubal fits the bill, and while there’s been no indication Texas has yet contacted the Detroit front office about the young hurler, it wouldn’t be a surprise if that were the case.

While the Tigers may be open to offers on Skubal and other players with extended control windows, Avila and his staff figure to be much more motivated to part with some shorter-term veterans. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored this month, relievers like Andrew Chafin, Joe Jiménez, Michael Fulmer and Gregory Soto should draw plenty of calls from contenders. Robbie Grossman and Tucker Barnhart are impending free agents and would surely be available, although neither veteran is having a good season. That’s also true of third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who is controllable through next year via arbitration.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

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