Chris Sale Fractures Wrist, Will Miss Remainder Of Season
The Red Sox announced Tuesday that lefty Chris Sale suffered a fractured right wrist “during a bicycle accident on Saturday, August 6.” The injury required surgery that will end Sale’s 2022 season. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.
It’s the latest setback in a mounting pile of injuries for Sale, who has made just 11 starts while playing under the five-year, $145MM contract extension he signed back in March 2019. (The contract began with the 2020 season despite being signed in 2019, as Sale was already under contract for the ’19 season.) Since putting pen to paper on that contract, Sale has missed time with elbow inflammation that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery, plus a stress reaction in his rib cage and a fractured pinkie finger incurred on a comebacker earlier this summer. Overall, he’s pitched just 48 1/3 innings in the regular season through the contract’s first three years (plus another nine frames in the 2021 postseason).
A healthy Sale is, of course, one of the sport’s most dominant talents. From 2012-18, Sale made seven consecutive All-Star Games and never finished lower than sixth in American League Cy Young voting. Along the way, he pitched to a collective 2.91 ERA in 1388 innings, averaging 30 starts and 198 frames per regular season (plus another 25 postseason innings with Boston). Sale came on in relief and punched out Justin Turner, future teammate Enrique Hernandez and Manny Machado in order to close out Boston’s 2018 World Series victory over the Dodgers, capping off the franchise’s fourth championship since the “curse-breaking” 2004 season.
It’s been mostly downhill for Sale since, as he’s battled fluke injuries and taken some deserved flak for being caught on film destroying a clubhouse television after getting an early hook during a Triple-A rehab game earlier this summer. This latest injury will bring Sale’s 2022 campaign to a close after just 5 2/3 innings.
Sale will turn 34 next March, so it’s still plenty feasible that he can return to form and serve as a foundational piece for the Sox moving forward. He averaged 94.9 mph with his heater during this year’s tiny sample of 5 2/3 frames — right in line (actually slightly better than) his average fastball during that aforementioned seven-year run of dominance between Chicago and Boston.
Given the recent rash of injuries, the Sox surely won’t be banking on 30-plus starts out of Sale, but at the same time, his contract leaves them little choice but to hope for the best. With Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha all set to hit free agency at season’s end, Sale and righty Nick Pivetta are the only Sox starters who can be penciled into next year’s group. Lefty James Paxton could potentially be in that mix as well; his contract has a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons that must be exercised simultaneously at season’s end. The team almost certainly won’t be taking their end of the deal — Paxton has yet to pitch in 2022 — but Paxton also has a $4MM player option for next season in the event that those club options are declined. Suffice it to say, rotation stability will be a point of emphasis for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom this winter.
Cubs To Release Jason Heyward At End Of Season
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to reporters, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, relaying that outfielder Jason Heyward will not be with the club in 2023. That would be the last year of Heyward’s contract, but it seems the club will go in a different direction. Heyward is currently on the injured list with a knee injury, which Hoyer says he is unlikely to return from this year, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. That means it’s possible Heyward has already appeared in his last game as a Cub. Hoyer says that Heyward will eventually be released, but will stick around the clubhouse while on the IL for the rest of the year due to his respected clubhouse presence, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer says that he and Heyward have discussed the situation “at length,” per Rogers, with the Cubs wanting to give more time to younger players but Heyward wanting to continue playing. By releasing him for the offseason, he can return to free agency and look for his next team this winter.
It’s a noteworthy but hardly shocking development, considering how Heyward has performed over the life of the contract. After five seasons with Atlanta and one in St. Louis, the Cubs signed Heyward in December of 2015 to an eight-year, $184MM contract. At the time, the Cubs had just come out of a rebuild, making the postseason for the first time since 2008, still looking to snap their World Series drought that had been ongoing since 1908. One year previously, the club had signed Jon Lester as a way to signal their return to competition and the Heyward deal was one of many in the 2015-2016 season that compounded the club’s serious intentions.
In the first year of the deal, Heyward still provided excellent defense the same way he always had, but his offensive production took a nosedive. He hit .230/.306/.325 for a wRC+ of 72, or production 28% below league average, after having a wRC+ between 109 and 121 over the previous three seasons. His glovework still allowed him to produce 1.0 wins above replacement on the year, per FanGraphs, but it surely wasn’t what the Cubs had in mind when they laid out that massive contract. Nonetheless, the Cubs won the World Series for the first time in 108 years, which surely helped washed down any bitter aftertaste for a while.
Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed to turn a corner in the shortened 2020 campaign, as he hit .265/.392/.456 for a wRC+ of 129, accruing 1.6 fWAR in just 50 games. However, he crashed back down to earth last year, hitting a paltry .214/.280/.347 for a wRC+ of just 68.
Despite those ups and down at the plate, he’s always been a productive player due to his defense. Even with last year’s mediocre output at the plate, he was still worth 0.1 fWAR on the year. Here in 2022, however, things have continued to slide, with Heyward hitting a meager .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of just 59, causing him to slip below replacement level for the first time.
Over the span of his contract, the Cubs shut their competitive window and entered another rebuild phase, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and other faces of their championship team sent elsewhere. With the roster now largely devoted to younger players, it seems they will devote their playing time to those guys, with Heyward getting nudged out. Hoyer mentioned Nelson Velazquez and Christopher Morel as two such players who could take over some of Heyward’s role, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune.
Heyward’s contract runs through 2023, with his salary set to be $22MM for that campaign. Given his performance in recent years, he will surely go unclaimed whenever he is placed on release waivers. He will then be free to sign with any team, with that club only having to pay the league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Cubs pay.
Although this day has surely seemed inevitable for some time, it’s likely still emotional for many Cub fans. While there are segments of the fanbase that have grown impatient and been outwardly calling for this for some time, Heyward was still an integral part of one of the most important eras of Cubs’ baseball history, if not the most important. While he may have fallen short of some of the loftiest expectations, he was still a productive part of a team that broke a century-old title drought, making the playoffs in four out of his first five years with the club. Though Heyward could still land with another team next season, he will likely be forever associated with his time as part a legendary run of Cubs baseball.
Cubs Claim Franmil Reyes From Guardians
2:20pm: The Cubs have announced the claim.
2:10pm: The Cubs are “adding” slugger Franmil Reyes, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Reyes had been designated for assignment by the Guardians on Saturday. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Cubs have presumably claimed Reyes off waivers. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Reyes has indeed been claimed off waivers. The Cubs had a couple of vacancies on their 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move won’t be required in that regard.
Reyes, 27, has an impressive track record as a power hitter, though he’s enduring an unfortunate swoon here in 2022. He debuted with the Padres in 2018 and then went to Cleveland in a three-team trade in 2019 that involved six other players. From his debut through the end of the 2021 campaign, he hit 92 home runs and walked in 9% of his plate appearances. His 29.5% strikeout rate was definitely on the high side, but he still managed to hit .260/.325/.503, production that was 19% above league average by measure of wRC+.
This season has been a complete nightmare by comparison, however. Reyes has struck out in 37.1% of his plate appearances, walked in only 5% of them and hit just nine homers. His overall batting line for the campaign sits at a paltry .213/.254/.350, wRC+ of 69. Cleveland has been using him as a designated hitter, ultimately deciding it could no longer withstand that meager output from a lineup spot that’s supposed to deliver more potency. He was optioned to the minors last week and designated for assignment a few days after that.
For a rebuilding Cubs team, it’s a logical move to take a chance on Reyes and hope that he bounces back to his previous form. He’s making $4.55MM this year, leaving around $1.5MM left to be paid out over the remainder of the campaign. He can be retained for two more seasons via arbitration and likely won’t require a huge raise due to his poor showing this year. The Cubs don’t have a dedicated designated hitter, with impending free agent Willson Contreras getting most of the time there. If Reyes successfully bounces back in any way, he could take over DH duties. He is capable of playing corner outfield, though has only trotted onto the grass for 26 total games in the past three years.
There are reasons to be optimistic Reyes could turn things around. Despite the strikeout woes and general struggles this year, he’s still in the 92nd percentile among MLB hitters when it comes to barrel percentage, 93rd in average exit velocity, 88th in hard hit percentage and 86th in max exit velocity. If he can cut down on the strikeouts even a little bit, he’s still crushing the ball with enough power that he could be a useful pickup, either sticking with the Cubs or being traded in the future.
Fernando Tatis Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment
TODAY: Melvin gave a bit of clarity on when Tatis might return, telling MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that the aim is for Tatis to play in the majors by “mid-August-ish.”
AUGUST 5, 7:16pm: Manager Bob Melvin said Tatis will begin the assignment either tomorrow or Sunday (via Dennis Lin of the Athletic). He’s expected to play both shortstop and center field in the minors.
6:35pm: Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. is getting closer to a return, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter link) that he’s en route to Double-A San Antonio. He’ll soon begin a rehab assignment there, the final step before he makes it back to Petco Park.
It has been a long time coming for Tatis, who fractured a bone in his left wrist over the offseason. He underwent surgery in mid-March, with the club expressing hope at the time he’d be back by the middle of June. That obviously proved not to be the case. While there were no reports of meaningful setbacks, Tatis didn’t recover at the pace he or the team had hoped. He’s been gradually building through various baseball activities in recent weeks, and he’s now positioned to get into games for the first time this year.
Position players are allowed up to 20 days on rehab assignments. Once Tatis formally begins his assignment in the next few days, he can spend just under three weeks in the minors before the team has to bring him to the majors or shut him back down. They wouldn’t be sending him out if they anticipated the latter outcome, so the club is obviously of the belief he’ll be ready by the middle or end of this month.
Tatis’ forthcoming return will add another star to a lineup already loaded with firepower. Manny Machado is in the MVP conversation, and the Friars brought in Juan Soto and Josh Bell in one of the most monumental trades in MLB history. Add Tatis — owner of a .292/.369/.596 line through his first three seasons — to the mix, and the Padres will deploy an eye-popping top of the lineup for the stretch run.
With Tatis out of action, the bulk of the shortstop work has gone to Ha-Seong Kim. The former KBO star has overcome a rough rookie MLB season to hit at a roughly league average level (.248/.329/.370) while playing Gold Glove caliber defense through 98 games. With Bell, Jake Cronenworth, Machado and another deadline acquisition Brandon Drury all around the infield, San Diego will have an embarrassment of riches on the dirt. Tatis has expressed a willingness to move from shortstop to the outfield if necessary, with center field seemingly the likeliest spot in that case. Soto has right field accounted for, and Jurickson Profar is having the best year of his career in left. Trent Grisham, who has stumbled to a .197/.293/.365 line in just shy of 400 trips to the plate, seems as if he’ll be the odd man out most days once everyone is healthy.
Rockies Claim Dinelson Lamet, Designate Ashton Goudeau
Aug. 7: The Rockies announced that Goudeau has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Albuquerque. He will remain in the organization as depth but without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.
Aug. 5, 1:00pm: The Rockies announced the claim of Lamet, adding that right-hander Ashton Goudeau has been designated for assignment in order to create roster space.
12:46pm: The Rockies have claimed right-hander Dinelson Lamet off waivers from the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports (Twitter link). Lamet, whom the Brewers acquired alongside Taylor Rogers and prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser in Monday’s surprising Josh Hader trade, was designated for assignment just 48 hours after being acquired.
At the time of Lamet’s DFA, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns told reporters that Lamet “has a good arm and was included in the trade to help balance out the deal” but that “subsequent transactions” made him a tougher fit on the roster. The Brewers added right-handers Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal in separate trades one day after acquiring Lamet.
Still, the quick DFA makes it fair to wonder how prominently Lamet ever truly factored into the plans. The 2020 Cy Young candidate has been beset by injuries since late in that truncated season and has yielded 14 runs in just 12 2/3 innings this season. His fastball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, has averaged 95.3 mph this season. Of particular note for the Padres, who are barreling toward a second straight season paying the luxury tax, Lamet is earning $4.775MM in 2022. Including him in that trade meant not only jettisoning a player who had ostensibly been squeezed out of a roster spot but also who’d have a non-zero impact on the team’s luxury ledger. Stearns’ usage of the phrase “balance out the deal,” then, could be interpreted as referencing talent or in more fiscal terms.
Regardless, the Rockies now stand to potentially benefit from both their division-rival and the NL Central leaders feeling their rosters lacked space for Lamet. As recently as 2020, the 6’3″, 228-pound Lamet looked like a foundational piece in San Diego. He made a full slate of 12 starts during that pandemic-truncated campaign, pitching to a brilliant 2.09 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 36.9% ground-ball rate. That showing was good enough to land Lamet, then having just turned 28 years old, a fourth-place finish in National League Cy Young voting.
However, Lamet’s 2020 season also ended with him heading to the injured list with a biceps injury sustained in his final outing of the season. He’d go on to miss the 2020 postseason, and his 2021 season was limited to just 47 innings on account of a forearm issue that twice sent him to the injured list.
Those injuries, coupled with this year’s poor showing, have resulted in a grisly 5.46 ERA in the now-30-year-old Lamet’s past 59 1/3 Major League innings. In addition to the diminished fastball, he’s seen his strikeout rate plummet from that 34.8% mark to 26.9%, while his walk rate has spiked from 7.5% to a dismal 11.4%. Lamet may have had some bad luck in 2021, posting a .344 batting average on balls in play despite allowing hard contact at well below-league-average levels, but that’s not been the case at all in 2022. Yes, his .412 BABIP is through the roof, but so too is his opponents’ average exit velocity (a blistering 93.1 mph) and his 50% hard-hit rate.
For a pitching-needy team like the Rockies, however, there’s little harm in taking a relatively low-cost look at Lamet. They’ll be owed the prorated portion of his salary — about $1.6MM between now and season’s end — but can also control him via arbitration this winter if he impresses down the stretch. Viewed through that lens, there’d have been a case for any of the clubs higher on the waiver priority (e.g. Nationals, A’s, Tigers, Royals, Pirates) claiming Lamet, but despite the right-hander’s obvious talent, not every club is going to be bullish on his chances to rebound (or on taking on that extra chunk of cash at this point in the season).
Goudeau, also 30, has pitched 20 1/3 innings in this, his second stint with the Rockies, for whom he made his MLB debut back in 2020. He’s been tagged for a 7.08 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate, however, both well worse than the league average. His work in Triple-A Albuquerque has been even rougher, evidenced by 43 earned runs allowed in just 37 innings of work (10.46 ERA).
Cubs Release Andrelton Simmons
Aug. 7: Simmons has been granted his unconditional release, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
Aug. 6: The Cubs designated shortstop Andrelton Simmons for assignment today, the club announced. The move came shortly after he was activated from the 10-day IL. He had been out since mid-July with a right shoulder strain.
Simmons never really got off the ground in Chicago after signing a one-year, $4MM deal with the Cubs in the offseason. He struggled with shoulder soreness from the jump and had logged only 85 plate appearances on the season. In that small sample, he logged a meager .173/.244/.187 batting line and notched only a single extra-base hit. In his absence, Nico Hoerner has handled most of the innings at shortstop, logging a 107 wRC+ while playing solid defense, rendering the veteran surplus to requirements for a non-contending team.
While Simmons has been spoken of as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game since his 2012 debut, his offensive production — he sports a career 86 wRC+ — has fallen off a cliff since leaving the Angels after the 2020 season. In roughly a full season of action (536 PAs), he’s produced at a .216/.277/.261 clip, good for a wRC+ of only 51.
Still, provided his shoulder doesn’t prove an ongoing issue, Simmons could still catch on with a contender as a high-end defensive option, though likely not until after he’s cleared waivers. He’s won four gold gloves and finished second (to Carlos Correa) in the Fielding Bible’s 2021 defensive rankings. In fact, since 2013, he’s finished lower than third only once and won the award for six consecutive seasons (2013-2018). Advanced metrics back up Simmons’ continued defensive value; per Fangraphs, Simmons has accumulated 19 DRS (defensive runs saved) between 2021 and 2022 and a prodigious 201 for his career.
In parts of 11 seasons with the Braves, Angels, Twins, and Cubs, Simmons owns a career .263/.312/.366 triple-slash. Though he’ll enter 2023 at 33 years old, Simba will likely draw at least some interest in the offseason should he wish to continue playing, if perhaps as a non-roster invitee. Regardless of where his career goes from here, though, his glovework will remain the stuff of legend in Atlanta and Orange County.
Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
The Twins have announced to reporters, including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, that first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff will undergo season-ending wrist surgery on Tuesday.
Kirilloff, 24, was a highly-touted prospect, getting selected by the Twins 15th overall in 2016. As he worked his way toward the big leagues, he was considered to be among the top 35 prospects in baseball for three straight years from 2019 to 2021.
However, he’s been repeatedly dogged by issues in his wrist, even going back to his time in the minors. After making his MLB debut in early 2021, he landed on the IL in May of that year with a wrist sprain. He returned a few weeks later but went to the IL again in July with wrist ligament year, which ended up finishing his season. Here in 2022, he landed on the shelf in April due to wrist inflammation and returned in May, though a wrist contusion sent him to the IL yet again in August.
Through 104 games at this point in his career, Kirilloff hasn’t impressed much, putting up a line of .251/.295/.398. That amounts to a wRC+ of just 90, 10% below league average, though it’s fair to wonder how much these persistent wrist issues are preventing him from reaching his full potential.
Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relays some more details from Kirilloff about the surgery, which he first discussed as a possibility back in May. It will apparently involve manually breaking his ulna, shortening it to create more space, and then inserting a plate and screws.
Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic relays word from manager Rocco Baldelli about the situation. “Anytime you’re talking about shaving a bone down or shortening a bone, that’s a substantial procedure,” Baldelli said. “But we’re hopeful that by getting it down now it gives us a chance to use the offseason to get right, to start swinging the bat again, to feel good, and to start getting ready for next year.”
Kirilloff and the Twins will be hoping that the surgery pays dividends in the long run. In the short term, the club will likely be using Luis Arraez and Jose Miranda to cover first base, with Miguel Sano having been recently placed on the 60-day IL. As for the outfield picture, Byron Buxton is dealing with a sore knee and has been DHing, last taking the field about a week ago. Max Kepler just returned from the IL and can have one slot, with Nick Gordon likely taking another on most days, with Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino also in the mix.
Guardians Designate Franmil Reyes For Assignment
The Guardians have designated DH/outfielder Franmil Reyes for assignment, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Though his 2022 numbers have fallen well below his career marks, the move still comes as something of a surprise given Reyes’ age (2022 is his age-26 season) and his prodigious raw power. He had been optioned to Triple-A Columbus earlier this week. Jake Jewell has been selected onto the roster in his place.
Since debuting with the Padres in 2018, Reyes has been one of the more consistent home run threats in the game despite playing his home games at San Diego’s Petco Park (the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the majors) and Progressive Field (comparatively neutral but still pitcher-friendly), going deep in 5.6% of his career plate appearances (the league-wide average over the same span is 3.3%). That number has fallen to 3.2% in 2022, however, while his strikeout rate has ballooned to 37.1% (against a career 30.7% mark) and his walk rate has fallen to 5% (8.4% career).
These unfortunate trends translated into a meager .213/.254/.350 triple-slash, a far cry from his career .253/.314/.478 batting line — particularly in the power department. The Guardians, who entered play on Saturday two games behind the Twins in the AL Central and a game behind the Rays for the final wild card spot, will likely continue to rotate Josh Naylor and Owen Miller between first base and Reyes’ erstwhile DH spot.
Given his very real power potential — and the passing of the trade deadline — there could be some very real interest in Reyes from contending teams, perhaps even before he’s cleared waivers. Any team claiming the slugger would owe him a pro-rated portion of his $4.55MM 2022 salary, while he’d be owed only a pro-rated portion of the minimum salary thereafter. Reyes actually has two years of team control remaining, though he’ll be in line for at least a modest raise should a team choose to tender him a contract.
Justin Verlander Reaches 130 Innings Pitched, Vests 2023 Player Option
Justin Verlander breezed through the Guardians lineup tonight, tossing six innings of scoreless ball. It was another dominant performance in a season full of them for the AL Cy Young award contender, and today’s start also marked a notable contractual development. Verlander reached 130 innings on the season, meaning he’s officially vested a $25MM player option for the 2023 campaign.
Verlander is trending towards foregoing that option, as he’s in position to handily surpass a $25MM average annual value as a free agent. The nine-time All-Star commanded an identical salary this year on the heels of a season in which he didn’t pitch as he rehabbed from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Amidst one of the best seasons of a Hall of Fame career, Verlander is trending towards a massive raise. That’s particularly true since he received and rejected a qualifying offer last winter, meaning the Astros cannot offer another QO next offseason. A signing club thus won’t have to forfeit any draft pick or international signing bonus space this time around. Barring injury or a completely out-of-the-blue collapse in the final couple months, he’ll shatter a $25MM guarantee on the free agent market.
After tonight’s start, Verlander now carries a major league best 1.73 ERA. His 25.5% strikeout rate isn’t at the elite 35.1% level he posted between 2018-20, but it’s still four points above the MLB average for starters. With league-best run prevention, Verlander’s dip in strikeouts isn’t likely to have too significant an effect on his value on the open market. That’s particularly true since his 95 MPH average fastball velocity has remained intact after the elbow surgery, and he’s continued to spin both his fastball and breaking pitches at a high-end level. Verlander also owns some of the best command in the sport, and the 2011 AL MVP has proven capable of thriving on the biggest stage. He carries a career 3.40 ERA in 187 2/3 postseason innings, and he’ll have an opportunity to build on that resume with Houston this October.
Verlander’s exceptional track record sets up one of the more fascinating free agent cases of the upcoming offseason. He’s clearly reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best pitchers, the kind of ace clubs would be happy to trot out in the opening game of a playoff series. A new deal will begin with his age-40 campaign, however, setting him up for a short-term contract with a massive annual salary.
The obvious comparison point is the record-setting contract scored by his former teammate Max Scherzer last winter. The three-time Cy Young winner signed a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets. That obliterated the previous all-time high annual salary, with Scherzer’s $43.333MM annual payout topping any previous contract’s yearly salary by more than $7MM. Scherzer was coming off a 179 1/3 inning, 2.46 ERA campaign in which he struck out 34.1% of opponents between the Nationals and Dodgers. That better swing-and-miss stuff might tip the nod in Scherzer’s favor, but Verlander and his representatives at ISE Baseball seem likely to try to top that AAV record — particularly if he holds a sub-2.00 ERA all year. Even if he doesn’t quite hit Scherzer’s heights, beating the $36MM annual salary that ranks second all-time feels attainable for Verlander.
It’ll be equally interesting to see the length of the contract Verlander might receive. Scherzer’s deal began with his age-37 campaign and takes him through 39, Verlander’s current age. With Verlander still at the top of his game, a multi-year pact feels likely. Whether a team would go to three years and sign him through age-42 remains to be seen.
The upcoming starting pitching market features a few high-end arms, although most have injury or age concerns. With Joe Musgrove agreeing to a five-year extension to stick in his hometown San Diego, players like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Verlander look to be the top hurlers on the market (assuming all three trigger opt-out clauses in their contracts).
Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are above-average starters but each are already in their mid-30s. Noah Syndergaard has looked like a solid mid-rotation arm but isn’t throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did at his peak with the Mets. Sean Manaea has an underwhelming 4.24 ERA on the year, although he’s typically a solid mid-rotation type. Mike Clevinger will be entering his age-32 season and missed all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Zach Eflin is one of the younger arms available and generally solid when healthy, but he’s dealt with recurring knee injuries in his career that have again arisen this season. Clayton Kershaw seemingly limited his market last winter with geographic restrictions. It’s a class that won’t be lacking for star power, but there’s also a fair bit of uncertainty with most of the veteran hurlers who’ll be out there.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox Release Jackie Bradley Jr.
1:15pm: The Red Sox have announced that Bradley has been released. He will now be free to sign with any team for the protated league minimum, with Boston on the hook for the remainder of his contract.
8:55am: The Red Sox will designate veteran outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for assignment later today, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe.
Boston reacquired Bradley in an offseason trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. The trade netted the Red Sox a pair of prospects, infielders Alex Binelas and David Hamilton, and saw the Sox take on the second year of Bradley’s two-year, $24MM contract in the process. Effectively, the Sox purchased a pair of minor leaguers by bringing Bradley back into the fold and picking up the tab on his deal. Binelas and Hamilton rank as Boston’s No. 22 and No. 26 prospects, respectively, on Baseball America’s midseason ranking of their farm system.
There was certainly some reason for the Sox to roll the dice on a Bradley reunion even after an awful 2021 showing that saw him hit just .163/.236/.261 in 428 plate appearances as a Brewer. He remained an all-world defender in the outfield, was dogged by a .226 average on balls in play that sat 64 points below his career mark, and made hard contact at better-than-average rates (89.7 mph average exit velo, 40.3% hard-hit rate). Of course, Bradley also punched out at a career-worst 30.8% clip in Milwaukee, walked at a career-worst 6.5% rate and popped up more regularly than ever before.
Bradley indeed did not hit as poorly as he did in Milwaukee, but this season’s .210/.257/.321 slash wasn’t nearly enough of a rebound to carry Bradley on the roster for the entirety of the season. He’s been 42% worse than league average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and his defensive marks in center field have fallen off a bit this season (though he’s played right field more regularly anyhow).
25-year-old Jarren Duran has taken over the club’s regular center fielder, getting the bulk of the playing time there since mid-June. He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, hitting a meager .232/.280/.384, but his wRC+ of 82 is still well ahead of Bradley’s, though with worse defensive numbers. It seems the club will continue giving him a run of playing time for now to see how he fares down the stretch. Boston acquired Tommy Pham at the deadline, which likely played a part in nudging Bradley out of the corner outfield picture. Pham, Duran and Alex Verdugo will likely be the regular outfield rotation, with Jaylin Davis around as depth and Enrique Hernandez joining the mix once he returns from the injured list.
As for what happens now, there’s no way for the Sox to work out a trade since the deadline has passed. Their only options with Bradley are to put him on waivers or release him. Bradley’s defense will surely intrigue some other teams, but it seems unlikely any team will claim him given his poor offensive performance and contract situation. He’s making a $9.5MM salary this year, leaving a little over $3MM still to be paid out. There’s also a $12MM mutual option for 2023 with an $8MM buyout. Any team putting in a claim would be on the hook for that money. Even the clubs most interested in Bradley will likely just wait for him to clear waivers, at which point he could elect free agency and be signed for the prorated league minimum with the Red Sox on the hook for the remainder.
In the short-term, the trade certainly looks like a misfire for the Sox, with Renfroe having a solid season for the Brewers. He’s hit 19 home runs and is slashing .246/.299/.508 for a wRC+ of 120. However, the long-term evaluation of the deal will depend upon the future development of Binelas and Hamilton.