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Red Sox Sign Trevor Story

By Darragh McDonald | March 23, 2022 at 7:30am CDT

March 23: The Red Sox have formally announced the signing of Story to a six-year contract.

March 20: The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a six year, $140MM contract. After the fourth year, 2025, Story can opt out of the final two years of the deal. However, Boston can negate that opt-out by picking up a seventh year option for $25MM, or pay a $5MM buyout. If they were to exercise that option, it would add $20MM to the deal, effectively making it a seven-year, $160MM arrangement. Story will not have any no-trade protection as part of the contract. Story is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Story will take over at second base with Xander Bogaerts staying on as the team’s shortstop, per Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Red Sox manager Alex Cora has confirmed that plan, per Marly Rivera of ESPN.

It had been a fairly quiet offseason for the Red Sox up to this point, with the club mostly focused on its pitching staff, adding veterans like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Jake Diekman. On the position player side of things, they had only really subtracted since the offseason began, sending Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects. Story, however, they have certainly add a tremendous impact bat to their lineup.

After the departure of Troy Tulowitzki, Story took over the everyday shortstop job in Colorado and ran with it. Over the past six seasons, he has played in 745 games and hit 158 home runs, hitting an overall .272/.340/.523, for a wRC+ of 112. He also stole 100 bases and provided excellent defense, accruing 21.6 fWAR in that time.

In addition to helping out the Red Sox this year, the addition of Story makes sense from a long-term view. Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the remainder of his contract at the end of this season, when he will have three years and $60MM left on it, something he seems likely to do. If that should come to pass, they could already have his replacement on the roster. As noted above, the plan for this season is to keep Bogaerts at short and have Story play second, moving Enrique Hernandez to regular outfield duty. Story missed some of last year’s season with an injury to his throwing elbow, and some scouts expressed the belief that he would be best utilized at second base due to that injury impacting his throwing arm. Boston will now have at least one year to see if Story’s arm can rebound in any way before deciding how to proceed beyond 2022.

Although the writing has seemed to be on the wall for quite some time now, this officially ends the Trevor Story era in Colorado. Much like with Nolan Arenado before him, there seemed to be a falling out between the club and their marquee player. Last year, as Story was headed into free agency and the club not in contention, he seemed like an obvious candidate to be traded to a contender. However, the deadline came and went without a deal coming to fruition, something that left Story confused. “I don’t have really anything good to say about the situation and how it unfolded,” Story said in the immediate aftermath of the deadline. During the offseason, there didn’t seem to be any belief that a reunion was in the cards. The club apparently offered him more than the $140MM he got from the Red Sox, with Story preferring his chances of competing in Boston, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Between Story and Tulowitzki, the shortstop position in Colorado has been spoken for since 2006. For now, it seems like Jose Iglesias will be taking over, as he signed with the club a week ago. Since the club made a qualifying offer that Story rejected, they will receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round. The Red Sox forfeit their second-highest pick and and will have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.

This deal also closes the book on this year’s mega class of free agent shortstops, which featured Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. Going into the offseason, it was expected by many that the Yankees would be prominent players in this market, given their penchant for high payrolls and obvious need at the position that has been apparent since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year. But reports emerged in November that they were considering sitting out the shortstop bidding, content to acquire a stopgap solution as they wait for either of Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe to graduate from prospects to big leaguers. That now seems to have been the case, as the club acquired glove-first shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa to man the position, while the big five shortstops all landed with surprising suitors. The rebuilding Rangers grabbed both Seager and Semien, while another rebuilding club, the Tigers, nabbed Baez. Correa shockingly lingered on the market before settling on a short-term deal with the Twins, a team not known for reeling in the top fish in free agency. Now Story has come off the board, landing on a team that didn’t have an obvious fit at the position.

Since Chaim Bloom left the small-market Rays and took over as Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer after the 2019 season, the club has been undergoing a sort of semi-rebuild process. It was a few months into his tenure that they traded Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers as part of a process to strip down payroll, despite winning the World Series in 2018. On the heels of that trade, the club went 24-36 in the pandemic-shortened season, slipping beneath the lowly Orioles and into last place in the AL East. After some modest additions to the club, many went into 2021 expecting they would be unable to compete in such a strong division. However, they rallied for a 92-win season, just edging out the Blue Jays for a Wild Card berth, making it as far as the ALCS before falling to the Astros. On the heels of that surprise campaign, it seemed for the past few months that the club might again opt for only modest upgrades. Instead, the Fenway Faithful have the big splash that they were desperately hoping for, easily the biggest since Bloom took over, as the AL East figures to be a four-headed beast yet again.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Boston and Story were in agreement, as well as the $140MM guarantee. (Twitter links) Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report the six-year term. The fact that there was an unusual opt-out was first relayed by Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The fourth-year opt-out with the seventh-year option structure was first relayed by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $5MM buyout and $25MM salary for the final year were first relayed by Heyman. The lack of a no-trade clause was first reported by Sherman.

MLB, MLBPA Reach Tentative Agreement To Reimplement Ghost Runner In 2022

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have reached a tentative agreement to bring the extra-innings ghost runner back for the 2022 season, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Additionally, they have agreed to expand active rosters from 26 to 28 players this season until May 1. The league’s 30 owners need to vote next week to officially ratify the conditions, but Sherman writes that only a simple majority is needed and the provisions aren’t expected to have any issue passing.

Neither development is especially surprising, as reports emerged a couple weeks ago that both were under consideration. The lockout lingered into the second week of March, compressing the Spring Training schedule by two weeks even with the start of the regular season pushed back eight days. The concern is that the shortened ramp-up period might not afford enough time for players to get ready to shoulder a typical regular season workload. By adding a couple players in the early going and limiting the potential for marathon games, the league and union will give managers some extra flexibility in keeping playing time in check.

Sherman adds there won’t be any restrictions on the number of pitchers teams can carry in April. MLB is instituting its 13-pitcher limit this year. That rule change was originally slated to go into effect in 2020, but MLB scrapped it in each of the past two seasons due to concerns about overworking arms while teams were facing the possibility of COVID-19 outbreaks on their rosters. That’ll eventually be a challenge for clubs, but they’ll have some extra leeway on the mound for the first couple weeks of the season.

The return of the extra-innings runner figures to be the more notable development for fans. It was first implemented in 2020 as part of the pandemic protocols. There’s little doubt the rule has indeed served its purpose of preventing marathon games. There has only been one MLB game that exceeded thirteen innings in either of the past two seasons; there were 23 such games in 2019 alone. Nevertheless, the rule has predictably proven divisive among fans, many of whom perceive the placement of a free runner on second base to start extras as gimmicky.

Sherman writes that the ghost-runner rule has only been approved for 2022, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the league and union revisit it again down the line. The other big on-field pandemic rules change — the seven-inning doubleheader — will not return this year.

One rule that will be in effect permanently is a modification to the designated hitter, albeit one that only seems likely to affect one player. If a team uses the same player as both that day’s starting pitcher and as their DH, he can remain in the game as a hitter even after being removed from the mound. That’s obviously a provision designed to allow the Angels to keep Shohei Ohtani in the lineup deep into games he starts.

Blue Jays, Matt Chapman Agree To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | March 22, 2022 at 11:27am CDT

The Blue Jays and newly acquired third baseman Matt Chapman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $25MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The deal will buy out Chapman’s final two arbitration seasons but does not extend Toronto’s club control over the two-time Platinum Glover. Chapman, a client of the Boras Corporation, will receive a $1MM signing bonus and consecutive salaries of $12MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Chapman to earn $9.5MM this coming season, and he would’ve earned one more raise in 2023 before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. Taking into account that $9.5MM projection, Chapman’s $25MM guarantee effectively puts a $14.5MM price on that third-time arbitration salary, which seems well within the realm of plausible outcomes.

The new contract doesn’t change much in terms of Chapman’s outlook, though it gives him some financial security in the event of a major injury or further downturn at the plate. The Jays, meanwhile, get some payroll certainty not only for this season but also in 2023 — and they also avoid a need to dedicate any time or resources to arbitration talks with Chapman next winter.

Acquired last week in a trade that sent prospects Gunnar Hoglund, Kevin Smith, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead to Oakland, Chapman heads to Toronto in search of a return to his 2018-19 MVP-caliber form at the plate. A hip injury in 2020 cut the season short for Chapman and ultimately required surgery. He returned to play a mostly full slate of 151 games in 2021, but while Chapman belted 27 home runs and played his usual brand of premium defense at the hot corner, his overall production at the plate dropped as his strikeout rate rose. It’s certainly possible that the 2019 All-Star simply wasn’t at 100% last season, and he’ll now set out to prove that was the case without needing to spend much time dwelling on his contractual status.

Chapman’s new $12MM salary bumps the Blue Jays’ projected payroll up to about $170MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and it gives them about $190MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. That’ll establish a new franchise-record mark in terms of actual payroll, though the Jays are still about $40MM shy of the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold.

Twins Sign Carlos Correa

By Steve Adams | March 22, 2022 at 9:47am CDT

March 22: The Twins announced that Correa has officially signed his contract. He’ll be introduced at a press conference tomorrow morning.

March 19: Correa’s deal includes a limited no-trade clause this season, which becomes a full no-trade clause in 2023 and 2024 if he chooses to opt in to those contract years, per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY (via Twitter). Without knowing the full details of the limited no-trade clause, it’s still a relatively impactful development. If the Twins fall out of contention this season, they’ll have a sizable trade chip on their hands in Correa.

March 18: In a stunning move, the Twins have agreed to sign the market’s top free agent, shortstop Carlos Correa, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (Twitter link). Rather than the massive long-term deal that Correa has been seeking, he’ll instead sign a three-year, $105.3MM contract with opt-out clauses after the contract’s first and second seasons. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that the contract pays an evenly distributed $35.1MM annually. Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The Twins are giving Correa the second-highest average annual value of any position player in MLB history, trailing only the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout’s decade-long, $360MM contract extension with the Angels and narrowly topping the $35MM AAV on Anthony Rendon’s seven-year deal with the Angels. The move also means the No. 1 and No. 2 picks from the 2012 draft, Correa and Byron Buxton, will now be teammates for at least the 2022 season.

Upon shedding the remainder of Josh Donaldson’s contract in a trade with the Yankees, Minnesota was immediately linked to free-agent shortstop Trevor Story. Instead, the more than $40MM saved in that Donaldson deal will be reallocated to Correa, whose $105.3MM guarantee trails only Joe Mauer for the largest in Twins franchise history. Correa rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros at season’s end, meaning the Twins, a revenue-sharing recipient, will forfeit their third-highest selection in this year’s draft in order to sign him. That’ll be their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, which should fall in the mid-60s. The Astros, meanwhile, will gain a compensatory selection at the end of Competitive Balance Round B, which typically falls in the early 70s.

The opt-outs in the deal provide Correa with the ultimate insurance net; if he remains healthy in 2022 and produces anywhere near his 2021 or 2019 levels, he’ll surely reenter the market in search of something along the lines of the 10-year deal he originally sought. If he suffers an injury of note or experiences an unexpected downturn at the plate, he’ll have another $35.1MM salary waiting for him in 2023 with the same opt-out opportunity in the 2023-24 offseason.

The 27-year-old Correa, a career .277/.356/.481 hitter who slashed .279/.366/.485 with a career-high 26 homers in 640 plate appearances this past season, will serve as a focal point in a Twins lineup that is also anchored by Buxton and second baseman Jorge Polanco. He’s been an average or better hitter every season of his big league career, with the exception of the shortened 2020 campaign, and has connected on 20 or more home runs in five of his six full-length seasons at the MLB level. Correa has walked at a 10.8% clip and struck out in 20.5% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 20-year-old rookie, including career-best marks of 11.7% and 18.1%, respectively, this past season.

As with any longtime Astro, Correa comes with a relatively tainted reputation stemming from Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but George Springer proved last winter that the market will still pay premium rates for those players, provided they remained productive in subsequent years. Correa only serves as further evidence of that reality. And, just as Springer was embraced by Toronto fans, Correa surely will be well-received in Minnesota so long as he produces in a Twins uniform.

Like Buxton, Correa has had some durability issues, only twice reaching 500 plate appearances in his career. However, he played in 148 games this past season and in 58 of 60 games during the shortened 2020 season. Correa had a brief stay on the Covid-19 list over the summer in 2021, but he hasn’t been on the injured list since sustaining a broken rib in June 2019. The other notable injury he’s had in his career, a torn thumb ligament, came in 2017 and hasn’t had noticeably lingering effects.

Correa only further deepens a Minnesota lineup that is deep in talent but also lacking in consistency. Each of Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have 30-homer seasons in their past but have ebbed and flowed through roller-coaster performances at the plate in recent years. Third baseman Gio Urshela, acquired alongside Sanchez in the Donaldson deal, will also look for a rebound to his 2019-20 levels (.310/.358/.523) after playing through health troubles in 2021.

Meanwhile, former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have considerable offensive ceilings but played through injuries in their first full looks in 2021. Kirilloff, in particular, played through a torn wrist tendon before undergoing season-ending surgery. Top prospect Jose Miranda, who posted video-game numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this past season (.344/.401/.572), is expected to debut in 2022 and could see time at third base and/or designated hitter.

All of that is to say, the makings of a formidable lineup are present in Minnesota, though they’ll need a few things to break right. From the defensive side of things, Correa gives the Twins a pair of Platinum Glove winners, joining Buxton in that regard. With quality defenders like Kepler, Urshela and young catcher Ryan Jeffers also occupying key spots on the diamond, the Twins should have a strong defensive team overall. The Twins already ranked 12th in the Majors both in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in 2021, and Correa should boost both marks.

The larger questions center around the team’s patchwork starting rotation, however. After shipping Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays prior to the 2021 trade deadline and watching fellow righty Kenta Maeda fall to Tommy John surgery not long after, the Twins entered the winter in need of at least three veteran starters to pair with youngsters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They’ve yet to reach that goal. Acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds gave them one notable upgrade, and rolling the dice on a Dylan Bundy rebound prior to the lockout was a sensible enough move in a vacuum. However, the Twins idled for the early portion of the offseason and are now faced with a rotation that is still lacking and a free-agent market that has been largely picked over.

The Twins have been tied to Athletics starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, but failing that, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will need to seek some creative and under-the-radar options — particularly now that they’ve gone all-in on the 2022 season with this Correa deal. Minnesota has a number of pitching prospects on the precipice of the big leagues, but Correa is a clear win-now move that necessitates additional fortification in both the rotation and the bullpen.

It’s not clear just how much latitude Falvey and Levine will have to further boost a payroll that now, with Correa’s addition, is at a projected $128.5MM — within a few million dollars of franchise-record territory. The front office has repeatedly spoken of ownership support to boost payroll as needed in the past, however, and the shocking addition of Correa seems to support the notion that there’s more room to take the team’s spending levels to new heights, at least for the next few seasons.

Correa’s deal is fascinating on a number of levels, not the least of which being that it’s the first time in recent memory where the market’s consensus No. 1 free agent pivoted to a short-term deal with a potentially early reentry to the market. Entering the offseason, the common consensus was that the Yankees and Correa’s new division rivals, the Tigers, would be the primary bidders for his services. The Yankees not only opted to sit out the market for top-end shortstops entirely (despite a clear need), but in essence paved the way for the Twins to make this deal when they took on the remainder of Donaldson’s contract. The Tigers, meanwhile, offered Correa a reported 10-year, $275MM deal with three opt-out clauses — although presumably not so early in the contract as the offer on which Correa ultimately landed.

Risk-averse detractors will opine that Correa should’ve pounced on the larger guarantee, but with a big season Correa will again enter the market in search of a $300MM+ deal and having already banked $35.1MM in 2022. If he reaches even $240MM on a multi-year deal next winter, in advance of his age-28 season, or a $205MM+ deal after a 2023 opt-out, he’d come out ahead on the entire gambit.

Even in the event that Correa unexpectedly plays all three seasons in Minnesota on this deal, he’d return to the open market in advance of his age-30 season and needing to clear what could very well be an attainable $170MM to top that reported Detroit offer. It’s obviously possible that Correa struggles, gets injured or never reaches that same earning ceiling, but he’s known as a supremely confident player — a mentality that is underscored by taking a deal of this nature.

The incumbent Astros offered Correa five years at a total of $160MM prior to the lockout and, earlier in the week, were said to be prepping a new offer for their longtime star. It’s not yet clear what Houston ultimately put forth, but their initial offer didn’t include any opt-out provisions. If the new offer followed suit in that regard, it’s possible that Correa simply felt that in order to accept a shorter-term deal than the 10-year pact he initially sought, he’d need the opportunity to take another bite at the free-agent apple sooner than later.

Correa’s future trips to the market hinge on how the 2022 and perhaps the 2023 seasons play out, but regardless of when he returns to free agency, he’ll do so with a few advantages. Firstly, he won’t be one of five high-end shortstops on the market, as was the case this year. The combination of Correa, Story, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez is regarded as perhaps the greatest collection of free-agent shortstops in history. The talented nature of that group always created the possibility for a game of musical chairs that left one without the contract he sought, but few would have expected Correa to take a short-term deal.

Were Correa to return to the market next winter, he’d do so alongside Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and perhaps Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of his contract’s final three years and $60MM. However, Bogaerts’ defensive shortcomings have been increasingly placed under the microscope in recent years, and Swanson has never performed at Correa’s level either offensively or defensively. Turner and Correa certainly have the potential to be seen as 1-A and 1-B on next year’s market, but age is on Correa’s side; he’s more than a year younger than Turner. Furthermore, because Correa received a qualifying offer this winter, he’s now permanently ineligible to receive a second one. The qualifying offer system may yet be done away with entirely — that’s dependent on negotiations surrounding an international draft — but Correa is forever free from draft-pick compensation, regardless.

The other element of the contract to consider is the agency component of it. Correa turned heads by hiring Hollywood talent agency William Morris Endeavor to represent him in Sept. 2019. WME represented him up until midway through this offseason’s MLB lockout, but Correa hired the Boras Corporation to represent him on Jan. 18. There’s little sense speculating on the motivation behind the switch, but the change in representation meant that Correa’s former agents could have staked a claim to the commission from his eventual contract. Whenever Correa returns to the market, be it post-2022, post-2023 or post-2024, his new representation will command the entirety of the commission.

From a pure baseball perspective, the contract is a win both for Correa and for the Twins. Correa can lay claim to a nominal salary record — largest annual value for an infielder — and receive a massive yearly salary while retaining the ability to return to free agency in advance of either his age-28, age-29 or age-30 season.

The Twins, meanwhile, score the largest upgrade available to them on the market, catapulting them back into the conversation in the American League Central. They won’t be considered favorites without securing some additional pitching help, but Correa nevertheless provides radical improvement on both sides of the ball. The magnitude of the pitching upgrades the Twins have up their sleeve will determine their fate in 2022, but if their shocking deal with Correa is any indicator, they’re far from done improving this roster.

Rockies Extend Ryan McMahon

By Steve Adams | March 21, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

The Rockies and infielder Ryan McMahon have agreed to terms on a six-year contract extension that will guarantee McMahon $70MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McMahon is represented by Wasserman.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the specific financial breakdown (on Twitter). McMahon will make $5MM this year, $9MM in 2023, successive $12MM salaries in 2024-25 and $16MM in each of 2026 and 2027. Should he finish in the top five in MVP voting in any of the next three years, he’d earn the right to opt out of the contract after the 2025 campaign. If he finishes in the top five in MVP voting in 2025, he’d have an opt-out possibility after 2026.

Prior to hammering out this new six-year pact, McMahon was arbitration-eligible for the second time in his career and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM this coming season. The contract buys out his final two arbitration seasons and four would-be free-agent seasons. There’s no way of knowing exactly what McMahon would’ve earned in 2022-23 via arbitration, but using that projection and a rough estimate for the 2023 season, the contract is paying McMahon around $13-14MM per free-agent season. The terms fall roughly in line with some older deals we’ve seen for infielders with four-plus years of service time, including Brandon Belt (six years, $79MM) and Brandon Crawford (six years, $75MM — also negotiated by Wasserman).

McMahon, 27, had a the best season of his career both at the plate and with the glove in 2021. The former second-round pick batted .254/.331/.449 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, a triple and six stolen bases (in eight attempts). Park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ (95) and OPS+ (98) both felt McMahon’s overall contributions with the bat were a bit south of league-average, but given the strength of his glovework, he still proved plenty valuable.

McMahon not only provided the Rockies with versatility, logging 368 innings at second base and 842 innings at third base — he did so while playing both positions at award-worthy levels. McMahon logged a whopping nine Defensive Runs Saved in just that tiny 368-inning sample at second base, and he racked up 13 DRS at the hot corner despite not playing a full slate of games there. Virtually any metric one might prefer agreed that McMahon was outstanding with the leather; he registered Ultimate Zone Ratings of 6.1 and 2.9 at third base and second base, respectively, while Statcast credited him for 10 outs above average at third base and another two at second.

It’s easy to imagine that with a full season of games at the hot corner in 2021 — Brendan Rodgers is expected to man second base, with free-agent signee Jose Iglesias taking the reins at shortstop and Kris Bryant playing primarily left field — McMahon might find himself taking home some hardware for that defensive excellence. He was a Gold Glove finalist in 2021 as it is, although the man standing in his way is a very familiar face: longtime teammate and five-time Platinum Glover Nolan Arenado, now with the Cardinals.

Like any long-term deal, the signing isn’t without its risks for the Rockies. While McMahon’s strong defense and solid walk rate (9.9% in 2021; 10% in his career) give him a high floor, the offensive gains made in 2021 will need to be sustained for the deal to pan out in Colorado’s favor.

McMahon buoyed his production by finally curtailing some pronounced strikeout issues that had dogged him throughout his MLB tenure. From 2017-20, McMahon whiffed in 30.8% of his plate appearances — including a career-worst 34.2% in 2020’s shortened slate of games. That rate fell to a much more manageable 24.7% in 2021. McMahon has always had power and a knack for making hard contact, so as long as he can keep the punchouts down, there’s good reason to believe he can continue to be a reasonably productive bat — at least against right-handed pitching. The lefty-swinging McMahon slashed just .229/.312/.353 against southpaws in 2021 (173 plate appearances) and is a career .239/.310/.433) hitter against same-handed opponents.

The Rockies underwent a front office shuffle early in the 2021 season, dismissing longtime general manager Jeff Bridich and elevating scouting director Bill Schmidt to the GM post on an interim basis. Rather than perform a search and look for external candidates, owner Dick Monfort instead dropped the “interim” tag from Schmidt’s title before the season even ended.

Schmidt, who’s been running the Rockies’ scouting department since 1999, quickly went to work ensuring that several members of the Colorado roster would remain in place. Trevor Story had seemingly made up his mind to move on before the year ended, and the Rox were unable to sway righty Jon Gray in extension talks. However, they’ve also succeeded in brokering long-term deals for Antonio Senzatela (five years, $55MM), catcher Elias Diaz (three years, $14MM) and now McMahon — in addition to re-signing first baseman C.J. Cron before he even reached the market (two years, $14.5MM). That group now joins the team’s marquee addition, Bryant, among a restructured Rockies core.

Mariners’ Casey Sadler To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2022 at 6:13pm CDT

6:13PM: Sadler will undergo shoulder surgery and miss the entire season, Servais told Ryan Divish and other reporters.

4:40PM: Mariners right-hander Casey Sadler is dealing with soreness in his throwing shoulder and is “going to be down for quite some time,” manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jesse Borek and The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish). Sadler is apparently taking time to decide on what his next step will be, which could be an indication that surgery is being considered to address the issue.

Seattle’s lockdown bullpen was one of the main reasons the M’s recorded a surprising 90 wins in 2021, and Sadler was a major part of that relief corps. The righty had the lowest ERA of any pitcher in baseball with at least 40 innings pitched last season, as Sadler posted a tiny 0.67 number over 40 1/3 frames. After being charged with an earned run in an appearance against the Athletics on July 25, Sadler then held opponents scoreless over his next 29 appearances and 28 innings, a streak that is still ongoing.

Sadler is a grounder specialist, and thus obviously benefited from a .188 BABIP after generating a 62.9% groundball rate last year. Still, ERA predictors (3.06 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP) also liked his work, as Sadler posted a solid 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, and his 0.22 HR/9 was also the third-lowest of any pitcher in the 40+ innings club. Sadler has also posted excellent spin rates on his fastball and curve in each of the last three years.

A veteran of six MLB seasons, Sadler’s performance has been inconsistent, which isn’t unexpected for a pitcher who relies so heavily on grounders. Of Sadler’s 125 2/3 innings, 86 2/3 of those frames have come in his two best seasons — last year with the Mariners, and his 2019 season when he had a 2.14 ERA over 46 1/3 combined IP with the Rays and Dodgers.

The 31-year-old reached arbitration eligibility for the first time this winter, and agreed to a $1.025MM salary for the 2022 season. Unfortunately for both Sadler and the M’s, it now seems as though it will be some time before he can continue his scoreless-innings streak or perhaps even get back onto a mound. Sadler also missed over two and a half months on the injured list last season due to shoulder inflammation, and he also had a major injury setback earlier in his career as a member of the Pirates organization, when Tommy John surgery cost Sadler the entire 2016 season.

Most of the Mariners’ 2021 bullpen is returning, though they’ll now have Ken Giles in the mix, after Giles missed all of 2021 recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. Left-hander Ryan Buchter was also signed to a minor league deal earlier today, adding another veteran arm to the mix.

Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes To Begin Season On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | March 20, 2022 at 3:44pm CDT

TODAY: Flaherty discussed his injury situation today with MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters, noting that the PRP injection wasn’t due to his labrum tear, but rather bursitis. Flaherty felt that the shoulder issue was brought on by mechanical changes Flaherty made last season, while trying to adjust to his oblique strain. It appears to be a matter of crossed signals between the righty and the team as to why the Cardinals announced the labrum tear as the cause of the PRP injection, as Flaherty has been dealing with the tear for “a handful of years,” and during the lockout, “it was just hard communication-wise to communicate to [the Cardinals] what was going on” in regards to his shoulder inflammation.

MARCH 18: Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty received a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a small tear in his right shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). He’ll be shut down from throwing for two weeks, at which point the team will reevaluate his status. Flaherty obviously won’t have time to build up arm strength in time for Opening Day, and he’ll begin the season on the injured list.

It isn’t known how long Flaherty will be out, as Goold writes the team will have a more definitive timetable once they see how his shoulder responds to the PRP injection. The diagnosis of the small tear sounds ominous, but Katie Woo of the Athletic reports (via Twitter) the Cardinals have been aware of its presence for a while. Flaherty has pitched through it in the past, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Woo, but he’s apparently not able to do so as things currently stand.

Flaherty missed a good chunk of last season due to injury. He initially suffered an oblique strain that cost him a couple months. Not long after returning in August, he suffered a shoulder strain that knocked him out an additional four weeks. Flaherty returned in a relief capacity at the end of the season, but the repeated issues kept him to 78 1/3 innings over 17 outings.

With Flaherty down at the start of the year, there’s some uncertainty in the rotation behind the top four of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson. Goold writes that Mozeliak pointed to Jake Woodford and Matthew Liberatore as possible candidates for the final spot. Swingman Drew VerHagen and non-roster invitee Aaron Brooks — both of whom were signed after stints in Asian leagues (the NPB and KBO, respectively) — could be other options.

Meanwhile, righty Alex Reyes received a stem cell injection in his own ailing shoulder (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). He’ll be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks, and St. Louis doesn’t expect he’ll be ready for MLB action until late May or early June.

Reyes, who served as St. Louis’ primary closer last season, has dealt with a few arm issues in prior years. Various injuries, including a February 2017 Tommy John procedure, limited him to 72 2/3 big league frames between 2016-20. He avoided the IL last season, but he’s seemingly in line to miss the first six-plus weeks of this year. While he’s out, pitchers like Giovanny Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley could be bumped up a peg in the high-leverage pecking order.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Schwarber

By Steve Adams | March 20, 2022 at 12:40pm CDT

March 20: The Phillies have announced the signing, placing Kent Emanuel on the 60-day IL as a corresponding move. Emanuel went on the IL in June of last year with left elbow while with the Astros and never returned. Claimed by the Phillies in November, it seems he’s not close to being recovered, as the Phils announced that he has a left elbow impingement.

March 16, 11:06am: It’s a four-year, $79MM contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

8:54am: Schwarber and the Phillies have agreed to a four-year deal with an annual value just shy of $20MM, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic.

8:31am: The Phillies have reached an agreement with Schwarber, pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

8:21am: The Phillies are “making progress” on a deal with free-agent slugger Kyle Schwarber, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Schwarber had recently been linked to the Blue Jays, but Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported a few minutes ago that the team had become “pessimistic” about its chances of signing Schwarber, believing he was likely to sign elsewhere.

Schwarber, 29, has been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market in the days since MLB’s lockout was lifted — thanks in no small part to the implementation of the universal designated hitter. The longtime Cubs left fielder was non-tendered by Chicago after the 2020 season but parlayed a one-year deal with the Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Red Sox) into a surefire multi-year deal in his second foray into free agency.

While Schwarber got out to a lukewarm start with the Nats in 2021, he erupted with one of the most prodigious hot streaks in big league history in mid-June. From June 12-29, a span of just 18 games, Schwarber launched a staggering 16 home runs through just 77 plate appearances. That astonishing run was cut short by a hamstring strain that sidelined him for more than a month, but the Red Sox had no qualms about trading for Schwarber even while he was on the injured list.

The Boston front office was surely glad it did so, as Schwarber returned with that same thunder the moment he was activated from the injured list. In 168 plate appearances with the Red Sox down the stretch, he turned in a huge .291/.435/.522 slash with seven homers and 10 doubles as the Red Sox surged to an AL East division title. Schwarber clocked three more home runs during the postseason, including a now-iconic grand slam that keyed a Game 3 ALCS romp over the Astros, but his bat fell quiet thereafter, as he finished out the series in an 0-for-15 funk while the ’Stros came back to topple the Sox.

Slow start to the year notwithstanding, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with a whopping 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances during the regular season. Add in his postseason efforts, and Schwarber carries a .260/.365/.542 with 35 home runs in 520 plate appearances since the Cubs non-tendered him.

Signing with the Phillies will reunite Schwarber with former Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, who left the Nats’ staff at season’s end and signed on for a reunion with manager Joe Girardi, under whom he’d previously coached with the Yankees. Long’s presence certainly couldn’t have hurt the Phillies’ efforts to sign Schwarber, and it’s of some note that he’ll now continue working with the same hitting coach who helped coax that career-altering run from him during the ’21 season.

Schwarber’s role with the Phillies depends, to an extent, on the remainder of the team’s moves. While he’ll probably spend some time in left field and at designated hitter regardless, the division of his workload between those two spots hinges on whether the Phils make another clear upgrade in the outfield. At the moment, the Phillies don’t have a clear, everyday option in left field. Bryce Harper is, of course, locked into right field, but the rest of the outfield remains in a state of flux. The Phils brought Odubel Herrera back on a one-year, $1.75MM deal, and he’s joined by Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Luke Williams as outfield options on the roster. Suffice it to say, at least one more newly acquired bat seems likely to join Schwarber in the Opening Day lineup by the time all is said and done.

The scope of any further additions seems likely to be driven by the luxury tax. Phillies owner John Middleton has staunchly resisted exceeding the tax line in the past two seasons, and today’s addition of Schwarber will push the Phils to roughly $216-217MM in luxury obligations, depending on the specifics (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That’ll leave the Phils with somewhere in the vicinity of $13-14MM of breathing room to add at least one more outfielder and any other supplemental pieces the front office desires. Teams generally want to leave at least a few million dollars for in-season dealings, so it could be that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is dealing with a bit less than that projected $13-14MM.

Of course, additional trades or a simple change of heart with regard to Middleton’s luxury-tax aversion could change the calculus. Dombrowski made clear early in the offseason that shortstop Didi Gregorius would have to earn a starting job after a dismal showing in 2021, and he’s been listed as a speculative candidate to be moved in a change-of-scenery swap. The Phils could also try to dump the contract of outrighted utilityman Scott Kingery on another club as well, which would free up another $4MM in luxury space.

Barring any such trades or philosophical changes in ownership thinking, Dombrowski will be working with some notable financial limitations from here on out. That might mean a shift to the trade market or pursuing some smaller-scale free agents in hopes of securing a bargain. Time will tell just how the front office will proceed, but the addition of Schwarber to a lineup that ranked 15th in the Majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored will provide a notable jolt in production.

Marlins To Sign Jorge Soler

By Mark Polishuk | March 19, 2022 at 11:33pm CDT

The Marlins and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a three-year, $36MM contract, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter links). Soler has opt-out clauses after each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Soler is represented by MVP Sports.

Soler will earn $12MM in the first year of the contract, as per FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). Provided he doesn’t opt out of the deal, Soler is slated to earn $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024. Various incentives based on playing time could significantly boost that 2024 salary, as Soler gets an extra $500K for reaching the 350-plate appearance and 400-PA thresholds, and then a $1MM bonus for hitting 450 PA, 500 PA, and 550 PA.

The deal represents the second big free agent splurge of the winter for the Marlins, who also signed Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM pact prior to the lockout. Miami went into the offseason with a stated need for outfield help and more lineup pop, and the result is two players who have combined for 154 homers since the start of the 2019 season.

Soler led the AL with 48 home runs during that 2019 campaign, one of the high points of what has been an inconsistent eight-year run in the majors for the 30-year-old. Both sides of the Soler experience was on display in 2021, when he began the season hitting only .192/.288/.370 with 13 homers over 360 plate appearances with the Royals.

After the Braves picked Soler up at the trade deadline, however, the switch seemed to be flipped. Soler proceeded to hit .269/.358/.524 with 14 home runs over 242 PA for his new team, and then topped that strong performance in the World Series, batting .300/.391/.800 with three more long balls during 23 PA in the Fall Classic. With Atlanta capturing the championship, Soler earned World Series MVP honors.

There was plenty of interest in Soler on the open market this winter, as the Braves were interested in a reunion, and clubs like the Rockies, Padres joined the Marlins as known suitors for the slugger. MLBTR ranked Soler 25th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and correctly predicted Soler’s actual three-year, $36MM contract. (Our Anthony Franco took the prognostication a step further and even picked Soler to sign with the Marlins.)

The challenge for any interested club, of course, was determining how much to bid for a player whose production has ebbed and flowed over the years. By that same logic, Soler and his representatives obviously wanted a solid deal that wouldn’t sell the outfielder short for future years if he did return to that 48-homer pace. The two opt-outs allow some flexibility in both cases, as if Soler does enjoy a big 2022 season, he can test the market again next winter.

If Soler did end up only being a Marlin for one season, the team might prefer the flexibility, given the continued uncertainty of Miami’s center field situation. General manager Kim Ng said earlier today that the team was on the lookout for center field help, though Garcia was cited as a possible center field candidate at the time of his signing.

With Soler now added to the mix, it would seem as though Garcia will be tapped for at least semi-regular center field duty, barring another move for the Fish. Jesus Sanchez can also get some work in center and will play regularly as a corner outfielder, while Soler will play every day in either the other corner slot or as the designated hitter. Garrett Cooper will likely get the other right field/DH spot that Soler doesn’t occupy, with Cooper and Jesus Aguilar also sharing time at first base.

Bryan De La Cruz will get one outfield bench spot, while minor league signings Delino DeShields and Roman Quinn could be battling for another bench role. Since DeShields has a stronger defensive track record, that might give him the edge in winning a job, especially if the Marlins seem to be prioritizing hitting over glovework with their other outfield choices.

The likes of Brian Anderson, Joey Wendle, or Jon Berti could also factor into the outfield picture, and future acquisitions can’t be ruled out during what has been a very aggressive offseason for the Marlins. Between the Soler/Garcia signings and the trades for Wendle and Jacob Stallings, the Fish are making a concerted effort to improve, and the free agent deals represent some notable expenditures for a traditionally lower-payroll team. Due to some reports that Derek Jeter’s surprising departure as CEO was because of a change in ownership’s willingness to spend, the Soler contract will quiet some criticism directed at the franchise in the aftermath of Jeter’s decision.

If Soler doesn’t opt out and he hits his 2024 incentive clauses, the total value of the deal will top out at $40MM over three years, which isn’t a huge spend in comparison to other free agent contracts. That said, Miami native Nick Castellanos was another rumored Marlins target, and the Fish might’ve simply felt that spending $36MM (or as little as $12MM) on Soler was a better investment than topping the five-year, $100MM contract Castellanos received from the Phillies. Castellanos also would’ve cost the Marlins a draft pick via the qualifying offer, whereas Soler wasn’t attached to any draft compensation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Michael Conforto Turned Down Nine-Figure Extension Prior To 2021 Season

By Darragh McDonald | March 19, 2022 at 4:02pm CDT

Outfielder Michael Conforto turned down an extension offer from the Mets one year ago, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Per Martino’s tweet, the contract offer was “in the $100 million range” and “would have gone to about $120MM.”

Conforto’s market this winter has been one of the more difficult to predict, given that he followed up a run of four consecutive seasons of excellent production with a bit of a down year right before free agency. One year ago, at the time of this reported offer, Conforto had just finished a 2017-2020 run wherein he launched 97 home runs and hit .265/.369/.495, wRC+ of 133.

Other than the vague approximation of the final value of the offer, there’s nothing publicly known about it, making it difficult to evaluate Conforto’s decision. For instance, that number could have been spread over enough years to make the average annual value a non-starter. But just looking at the final number, it wasn’t outlandish for Conforto to reject that contract at that time. Just as a comparison, Nick Castellanos hit 98 homers over his past four years and put up a wRC+ of 126. He just signed with the Phillies for $100MM over five years. Conforto is a year younger than Castellanos, hits from the left side and doesn’t have the same defensive liabilities. If he had yet another great year at the plate in 2021, he certainly could have topped that $100MM number.

Unfortunately, Conforto had an ill-timed swoon last year, just as he was headed into free agency. Despite lowering his strikeout rate, he only managed 14 homers in 125 games and slashed .232/.344/.384 overall, for a wRC+ of just 106. Based on that performance, MLBTR predicted that Conforto would reject the qualifying offer, not find deals to his liking and eventually settle for a one-year, $20MM deal, hoping for a bounceback campaign and a return to the free agent market without the QO and with a better platform. So far, it’s seems possible things are following that script, as Conforto did indeed reject the QO is now just one of three free agents from that Top 50 list that remain unsigned or retired. (Trevor Story and Jorge Soler are the others.)

It is perhaps worth mentioned that Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation. Superstar agent Scott Boras has often found creative ways to get his clients paid in a way that also ensures them future opportunities for further contracts. For instance, the aforementioned Castellanos signed a four-year deal with the Reds prior to the 2020 season, which came with opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal. After a down year in 2020, he stayed put in Cincy and mashed through 2021, triggering his second opt-out and securing his $100MM deal this week. Carlos Rodon was also a candidate to settle for a one-year deal due to his excellent but injury-hampered season, but he ended up securing a two-year, $44MM deal that allows him to opt-out after the first year as long as he throws 110 innings. Carlos Correa went into the offseason looking for $330MM or more but couldn’t find a deal in that range. After switching his representation to Boras during the lockout, he just settled with the Twins for $105.3MM over three years, but with opt-outs after each season, allowing him to re-enter the market essentially at his will and take another shot at a mega payday.

Although it might initially seem like it was a mistake for Conforto to have turned down that $100MM, there’s still a chance he could come out ahead in the end. It’s entirely possible that he and Boras could find a similar deal to those examples, one that finds some middle ground between current financial security and future earning potential. He only turned 29 years of age a few weeks ago, meaning that it’s possible for Conforto to bank some money now and return to the open market going into his age-30 or age-31 season. All he has to do is put 2021 behind him and return to the form he showed in the previous four seasons.

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