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Newsstand

Pirates Sign Trevor Cahill

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2021 at 12:45pm CDT

The Pirates have made a late addition to their rotation mix, announcing Friday that they’ve signed veteran righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year deal.  The JBA Sports client will reportedly be guaranteed $1.5MM and have the opportunity to take home another $1MM via incentives.  Those incentives are based on innings pitched and kick in with a $100K bonus for reaching 75 frames. Cahill would also earn $150K for reaching 100 innings, $200K at 125 innings, $250K at 150 innings and $300K at 175 innings.

Trevor Cahill | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Cahill received interest from as many 16 teams, Nightengale writes, following a season that saw him post a 3.24 ERA/4.38 SIERA over 25 innings with the Giants.  Presumably, based on the terms of his contract, much of that interest was on non-guaranteed deals.

Long a ground-ball specialist, Cahill seemed to change course in 2020, albeit with the caveat of his very small sample size of work.  Cahill had only a career-low 33.3% grounder rate, while his K% rocketed to 29.2%, by far the highest of his 12-year career.  His Statcast metrics were solid overall, and Cahill continued to deliver his signature elite-level curveball spin.

It was a solid bounce-back outing from a very rough 2019 season that Cahill post a 5.98 ERA/4.95 SIERA over 102 1/3 innings with the Angels.  Cahill was bedeviled by a 22.5% home run/fly ball rate that season, but he cut that number down to a much more palatable 12.5% in 2020.

The 33-year-old Cahill worked as both a starter and reliever in San Francisco, and it seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for rotation work in Pittsburgh.  Certainly, his incentive structure is geared toward that role.  With Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Chris Archer all now pitching for other teams, the Pirates have definitely need for some innings-eating arms in the rotation.

Cahill joins fellow newcomer Tyler Anderson alongside Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Brault as the top rotation candidates in Pittsburgh, though this collection could change significantly as the season goes along — whether just by simple attrition, other youngsters stepping up to grab jobs, or the rebuilding Pirates trading more hurlers elsewhere.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links).

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Trevor Cahill

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2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2021 at 11:05pm CDT

Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st.  With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1.  Francisco Lindor.  The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago.  Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer.  The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.  These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season.  A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five.  But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position.  As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position.  At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch.  Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets.  Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension.  Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.”  By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28.  Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2.  Corey Seager.  Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good.  Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season.  Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year.  His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards.  Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure.  It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract.  For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change.  The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022.  Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3.  Trevor Bauer.  Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers?  He’s built the option into his contract.  If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031.  So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021.  He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much.  Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4.  Trevor Story.  Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give.  And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa.  Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road.  It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors.  But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team.  Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race.  As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor.  He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5.  Carlos Correa.  Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017.  There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player.  But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter.  He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury.  He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason.  So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was.  His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor.  Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial.  The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension.  Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6.  Nolan Arenado.  Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency.  It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal.  To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign.  He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season.  Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year.  Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7.  Freddie Freeman.  Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award.  He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that.  Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old.  Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term.  The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long.  Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8.  Kris Bryant.  It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019.  At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign.  His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup.  Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders.  He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season.  Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9.  Michael Conforto.  Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20.  Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner.  It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract.  Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year.  So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer.  As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins.  Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10.  Clayton Kershaw.  Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old.  As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished.  But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long.  Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact.  Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list.  I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard.  Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.

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2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Astros’ Forrest Whitley To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Mark Polishuk | March 10, 2021 at 4:54pm CDT

MARCH 10: Manager Dusty Baker announced Wednesday that Whitley will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll miss the entire season as a result.

MARCH 7: Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has been advised to undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 (Twitter link).  Whitley has been battling arm soreness that has now been diagnosed as a right UCL sprain, the team told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) and other reporters.  No decision has yet been made about Whitley’s next step, as the right-hander is seeking a second opinion.

A 14-15 month layoff for TJ rehab would be the biggest setback yet in a career that has been hampered by injuries.  Whitley also had an forearm problem last season that led to an early shutdown at the Astros’ alternate training site, and he has been sidelined with shoulder and oblique injuries in past years.  Beyond just health woes, Whitley was also issued a 50-game drug suspension in 2018.

Despite all of these issues, Whitley’s potential is still so highly regarded that he has continued to remain a fixture on top-100 prospect lists over the last four years.  Selected with the 17th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Whitley is still only 23 years old, as the Astros took the San Antonio native as a high schooler.  Between the injuries and the suspension, however, Whitley has thrown only 197 innings as a professional from 2016-19, and just 24 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.  That brief stint at Triple-Round Rock didn’t pan out, as Whitley was torched for a 12.21 ERA with nine home runs allowed.

In the short term, the Astros were hoping Whitley would rebound from his lost season and look good enough to receive consideration for a MLB promotion at some point in 2021.  Over the longer term, Whitley was seen as a bridge to the next generation of the Houston rotation, as Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Lance McCullers Jr. can all be free agents after the season (and Verlander will already miss all of 2021 due to his own Tommy John procedure).  Framber Valdez’s season may also be in question thanks to a broken finger, which is why the Astros added some veteran stability through at least the 2022 campaign by signing Jake Odorizzi yesterday.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Forrest Whitley

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Zack Britton To Undergo Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery

By Steve Adams | March 9, 2021 at 3:50pm CDT

3:50 pm: Britton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip in his left elbow in the next couple of days, per the team (via Twitter). Britton is expected to be shut down completely for six weeks, and he’s not likely to be back for another 3-4 months, per Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). Justin Wilson’s presence in the bullpen will become all the more important for the Yankees in the first half.

8:38 am: The Yankees sent left-hander Zack Britton for an MRI yesterday after he experienced some discomfort in his left elbow following a bullpen session, manager Aaron Boone revealed to reporters this morning (Twitter link via ESPN’s Marly Rivera). Britton completed his throwing session as normal, but he began experiencing soreness in his elbow later in the day and was sent for imaging. Results are expected today.

Boone declined to speculate on a timeline, merely acknowledging that given the uncertainty, it’s of course possible that Britton won’t be ready for Opening Day. He did indicate that the issue is not believed to be related to Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament at this point (via James Wagner of the New York Times). Boone also noted that Britton was set back in his preparation for camp after contracting Covid-19 within the past couple of months. Britton himself recently told the New York Post’s Dan Martin about that matter, stating that the virus “hit me pretty good” in late January and caused him to lose a substantial amount of weight. The left-hander has not yet appeared in a Spring Training game.

Britton, 33, was outstanding for the Yankees in 2020, holding opponents to just four earned runs on a dozen hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts through 19 innings of relief. His power sinker again resulted in an elite ground-ball rate (71.7 percent), as has become routine for the two-time All-Star. He went on to allow a pair of runs in 5 1/3 postseason frames.

That performance led the Yankees to exercise a $13MM club option over Britton for the 2022 season at the end of the 2020 campaign. Under the structure of his three-year deal, which covers the 2019-21 seasons, the Yankees had to either pick up that 2022 option a year early or risk Britton opting out of the contract’s third guaranteed year (2021). He’s now locked in as a Yankee through the end of his age-34 season.

Whether Britton is forced to miss time or not, the Yankees still project to have a strong bullpen in 2021. New York traded Adam Ottavino to the Red Sox a couple months back but reallocated much of the cost savings from that deal to low-cost signings of Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. That pair of veterans will join Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green and ideally, Britton, in forming a strong veteran group to anchor the relief corps.

Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Brooks Kriske and Nick Nelson are among the other bullpen candidates on the 40-man roster, and the Yankees also brought in veterans Kyle Barraclough, Adam Warren, Tyler Lyons and Nick Goody on minor league pacts. Of course, selecting the contract of any of those non-roster veterans would come with some luxury-tax implications. The Yankees have ardently worked to remain south of the $210MM threshold and currently sit an estimated $3.5MM shy of that point, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Zach Britton

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Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi

By Mark Polishuk and Anthony Franco | March 8, 2021 at 8:43pm CDT

The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.

On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.

The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.

Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted.  With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.

Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand.  While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier.  More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.

Jake OdorizziOdorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years.  It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization.  Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.

Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota.  Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.

This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month).  With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.

MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal.  The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Houston Astros Newsstand Transactions Jake Odorizzi

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Brewers Sign Jackie Bradley Jr.

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2021 at 11:31am CDT

TODAY: The Brewers officially announced Bradley’s deal.  To create roster space, utilityman Tim Lopes (oblique) has been moved to the 60-day injured list.

MARCH 4, 1:05pm: Bradley’s 2021 salary is $13MM, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll earn $11MM in 2022 if he declines to opt out.

10:45am: Some of Bradley’s salary is deferred, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

As to the defensive alignment with Bradley in the fold, Brewers manager Craig Counsell spoke to reporters today and firmly indicated that Cain is the team’s center fielder (Twitter links via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Counsell wouldn’t mention Bradley directly, as his deal has yet to be formally announced, but he said his club doesn’t “…have any fourth outfielders. We have a lot of starting outfielders and we have to figure out how that works. But there’s playing time, absolutely.”

7:08am: The Brewers and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are in agreement on a two-year, $24MM contract, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. The second year on that deal is a player option, so Bradley will have the opportunity to return to the open market next winter if he performs well during his first season in Milwaukee. Bradley is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Jackie Bradley Jr. | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the second major free-agent signing for the Brewers this winter and the second that provides the team with a huge defensive upgrade. Milwaukee also inked former division rival Kolten Wong, arguably the game’s premier defender at second base, on a two-year deal that guarantees him $18MM.

Bradley, 31 in April, figures to slide into the outfield alongside Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. His acquisition could push Avisail Garcia, who struggled in 2020 during the first season of a two-year contract of his own, into a lesser role. It appears quite unlikely that there’ll be a universal designated hitter in 2021 at this point, but Garcia could still work as a DH during interleague games at American League parks. He could also slot into the mix against tough lefties and spell any of the other three on a given day.

Cain, meanwhile, carries a sterling defensive reputation much like Bradley, but he’ll turn 35 the same week Bradley turns 31. The Brewers could turn center field over to the younger of the two and slide Cain, who opted out of the 2020 season after just five games last year, into a less demanding corner outfield spot.

Prior to their deal with Bradley, the Brewers didn’t have much in the way of proven outfield depth in the event that a starting outfielder went down with an injury. The only other outfielders on the 40-man roster were Tyrone Taylor, Corey Ray and a trio of offseason DFA pickups: Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher and Tim Lopes. Bringing Bradley into the mix now gives them cover for a potential injury and allows them to rest Cain (returning at 35 after opting out of 2020) and Yelich (major knee injury at the end of 2019) with more regularity. More broadly speaking, the signing also simply improves both the defense and the lineup.

Detractors may brush aside the notion that Bradley can help to improve Milwaukee’s offense, but over the past six seasons he’s batted .247/.331/.438 — good for a slightly above-average 102 wRC+ and 101 OPS+. That line includes a .283/.364/.450 showing through 217 plate appearances last year. Bradley struggled in 2019 as his strikeout rate spiked to an unpalatable 27.3 percent, but he cut that mark by more than five percent last season in a rebound effort during the shortened campaign.

Bradley shouldn’t be problematic from a payroll standpoint, as the Brewers had been set for a decrease from their 2019-20 spending levels prior to the deal. The new agreement will take them to $105MM if the contract is evenly distributed and a bit more if the deal is front-loaded (which, speculatively speaking, seems likely). Either way, they’ll still be well shy of 2019’s franchise-record $122.5MM Opening Day mark.

The Bradley deal, in many regards, is reminiscent of Milwaukee’s surprise agreement with catcher Yasmani Grandal in the 2018-19 offseason. Grandal, like Bradley, was an elite defender at a premium position who didn’t find long-term offers to his liking and instead bet on himself by signing a one-year deal at a higher annual rate with the Brewers. Bradley’s deal doesn’t match Grandal’s $18.25MM guarantee (although it could afford him more than $12MM depending on the structure), but it gives him a nice safety net with the player option in the event that he struggles in 2021 or deals with a notable injury.

Aside from the Cardinals’ blockbuster acquisition of Nolan Arenado, it’s been a rather quiet offseason in the NL Central. The Cubs have made a handful of small-scale, one-year additions — but only after trading away Yu Darvish — while the Reds and Pirates have been mostly idle. Late agreements with Bradley, Wong and lefty Brett Anderson don’t make the Brewers a clear favorite even in a potentially lackluster division, but they certainly improve what looks to be a competitive club. And given the current payroll level and this front office regime’s penchant for late-offseason value plays, it’d be unwise to completely rule out any further additions.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Jackie Bradley Jr. Tim Lopes

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Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez

By Steve Adams | March 4, 2021 at 8:28am CDT

March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.

That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.

March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.

11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.

An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.

Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.

For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.

Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Framber Valdez

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No Planned Future Discussion On Expanded Playoffs, Universal DH In 2021

By Anthony Franco | March 3, 2021 at 10:58pm CDT

There has been no recent movement in talks between MLB and the MLB Players Association regarding the potential implementation of an expanded postseason or the universal designated hitter for the 2021 season, reports Evan Drellich of the Athletic. There are no current plans to revisit those talks, per Drellich, who characterizes playoff expansion and the National League DH as “dead issues” for next season.

Last summer, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to an expanded 16-team playoff format for 2020 just hours before the beginning of the regular season, with the players receiving $50MM of postseason television revenues. In a typical postseason, players receive a share of gate revenue. While Drellich cautions that another last-minute accord can “never be totally ruled out,” tonight’s report is the firmest indication yet that the broad season structure is set to revert to its pre-2020 status. (The two sides did agree on health and safety protocols last month, so the seven-inning doubleheaders and modified extra innings rules will return).

The universal DH was included as part of the health and safety protocols last season, but that was not the case this time around. Throughout the offseason, MLB tried to leverage the players’ interest in the NL DH as part of a new agreement on economic issues, particularly playoff expansion. The MLBPA has consistently rejected such a framework, fearing that lowering the bar to make the playoffs will reduce teams’ incentives to invest in their rosters.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported in January that MLB had offered players an $80MM pool in playoff revenues if they signed off on postseason expansion. That would’ve marked a rather significant increase over last season’s $50MM figure, but the players didn’t feel that represented much of an improvement on the status quo. As Drellich points out, the MLBPA has more reason to be optimistic about the possibility of brining in gate revenues this postseason. With distribution of COVID-19 vaccines expected to increase substantially in the next few months, the possibility of fan attendance at playoff games looks much more realistic in 2021 than it did last season.

It’s worth remembering the MLBPA is under no obligation to negotiate any changes to the playoff format. In the absence of a new accord, the 2016-2021 collective bargaining agreement remains in place to govern the season structure.

Without coming to terms on playoff expansion, however, it seems MLB is unwilling to agree to the implementation of the universal DH. Some in the league office believe the addition of the DH at this late a date would threaten competitive integrity, per Drellich, since National League teams would have little ability to acquire help at the position at this point. There’s some truth to that, but it’s nevertheless a strange argument in the wake of a 2020 season that saw MLB and the MLBPA frequently agree on significant structural changes (including the implementation of the NL DH) on the fly.

Even if this does mark the end of discussions about playoff expansion and the universal DH for 2021, the topics are sure to arise again in the near future. They’ll no doubt be key issues as the parties negotiate a new CBA after the current one expires December 1.

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2021 CBA Newsstand

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Out Of Options 2021

By Tim Dierkes | March 2, 2021 at 10:56pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options. That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. I’ve included players on multiyear deals. This list was compiled through MLBTR’s helpful and much-appreciated sources.

This year, option status for several players remains unresolved at present due to the nature of the 2020 season, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  We’ll keep this list updated as new information comes in.

Angels

  • Max Stassi, C
  • Mike Mayers, P
  • Franklin Barreto, 2B
  • Jaime Barria, P

Astros

  • Aledmys Diaz, 2B
  • Austin Pruitt, P
  • Brooks Raley, P

Athletics

  • Chris Bassitt, P
  • Tony Kemp, 2B
  • J.B. Wendelken, P
  • Nik Turley, P

Blue Jays

  • Rafael Dolis, P
  • Reese McGuire, C
  • Breyvic Valera, 2B

Braves

  • Abraham Almonte, RF
  • Luke Jackson, P
  • Grant Dayton, P
  • Phillip Ervin, RF
  • Tyler Matzek, P

Brewers

  • Daniel Robertson, 3B
  • Josh Lindblom, P
  • Dan Vogelbach, 1B
  • Derek Fisher, RF
  • Adrian Houser, P
  • Ray Black, P
  • Billy McKinney, LF
  • Jacob Nottingham, C

Cardinals

  • Miles Mikolas, P
  • John Gant, P
  • Tyler Webb, P
  • Daniel Ponce de Leon, P
  • Edmundo Sosa, SS

Cubs

  • Ildemaro Vargas, 2B
  • Alec Mills, P
  • Duane Underwood, P
  • Dillon Maples, P

Diamondbacks

  • Christian Walker, 1B
  • Stefan Crichton, P

Dodgers

  • Austin Barnes, C

Giants

  • Curt Casali, C
  • Matt Wisler, P
  • Darin Ruf, 1B
  • Jarlin Garcia, P

Indians

  • Adam Plutko, P
  • Jake Bauers, LF

Mariners

  • Rafael Montero, P
  • Marco Gonzales, P
  • Tom Murphy, C
  • Casey Sadler, P
  • Jose Marmolejos, 1B
  • Chris Flexen, P

Marlins

  • Adam Duvall, LF
  • Jesus Aguilar, 1B
  • Jorge Alfaro, C
  • Magneuris Sierra, CF

Mets

  • Miguel Castro, P
  • Jacob Barnes, P
  • Tomas Nido, C

Nationals

  • Joe Ross, P
  • Austin Voth, P

Orioles

  • Pedro Severino, C
  • Shawn Armstrong, P
  • Jorge Lopez, P
  • Cesar Valdez, P

Padres

  • Dan Altavilla, P
  • Taylor Williams, P
  • Austin Adams, P
  • Pierce Johnson, P
  • Javy Guerra, P
  • Jorge Mateo, SS

Phillies

  • David Hale, P
  • Roman Quinn, CF

Pirates

  • Michael Feliz, P
  • Erik Gonzalez, SS
  • Chris Stratton, P
  • Jacob Stallings, C
  • Carson Fulmer, P
  • Anthony Alford, CF
  • Dustin Fowler, CF

Rangers

  • Mike Foltynewicz, P
  • Ronald Guzman, 1B
  • Joely Rodriguez, P

Rays

  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B
  • Cody Reed, P
  • Brett Phillips, RF

Red Sox

  • Austin Brice, P
  • Nick Pivetta, P
  • Christian Arroyo, 3B

Reds

  • Noe Ramirez, P
  • Amir Garrett, P
  • Jeff Hoffman, P
  • Lucas Sims, P
  • Sal Romano, P

Rockies

  • Elias Diaz, C
  • Carlos Estevez, P
  • Antonio Senzatela, P
  • Jairo Diaz, P
  • Robert Stephenson, P
  • Raimel Tapia, LF
  • Yency Almonte, P
  • Yonathan Daza, LF

Royals

  • Adalberto Mondesi, SS

Tigers

  • Matthew Boyd, P
  • Buck Farmer, P
  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B

Twins

  • Max Kepler, RF
  • Tyler Duffey, P
  • Jorge Polanco, SS

White Sox

  • Evan Marshall, P
  • Jose Ruiz, P

Yankees

  • Gary Sanchez, C
  • Luis Cessa, P
  • Gio Urshela, 3B
  • Mike Tauchman, CF
  • Kyle Higashioka, C
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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Out Of Options 2021

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Royals, Hunter Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension

By Anthony Franco | March 1, 2021 at 11:44am CDT

TODAY: The Royals have officially announced Dozier’s extension.  The Athletic’s Alec Lewis (Twitter links) has the financial breakdown — Dozier will get a $1MM signing bonus, $2.25MM this season, $4.5MM in 2022, $7.25MM in 2023, $9MM in 2024, and there is a $1MM buyout on the $10MM club option for 2025.  There are multiple escalators involved, including $1MM bonuses for various awards.

FEB. 28, 9:51AM: Dozier and the Royals are in agreement on a four-year, $25MM guarantee with a $10MM option for 2025, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). If Dozier reaches all available escalators and bonuses, it could max out at $49MM, Passan reports.

9:35AM: While the deal isn’t yet complete, there’s “optimism” it’ll get over the finish line, per Alec Lewis and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (via Twitter). If finalized, the guarantee is expected to land in the $25MM range, report Lewis and McCullough. The 2025 option would be worth $10MM, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

8:59AM: The Royals are finalizing a four-year contract extension with Hunter Dozier, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The proposed deal would also contain a club option for 2025, per Murray. Dozier is a client of The L. Warner Companies, Inc.

As a player with three-plus years of MLB service, the 29-year-old wasn’t set to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. Rather than proceed year-by-year through arbitration, the parties are locking in some cost certainty over the next three seasons while lengthening their relationship by at least one year. The deal will buy out Dozier’s first year of would-be free agency, while the club option adds a second additional season of team control.

Despite being selected eighth overall out of Stephen F. Austin University in 2013, Dozier had something of a slow ascent through the minors. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2016, but it wasn’t until the middle of the 2018 season that he had established himself as a big league regular.

Dozier struggled down the stretch as a rookie but seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order bat in his sophomore season. The right-handed hitter popped 26 home runs and hit .279/.348/.522 across 586 plate appearances in 2019. Dozier’s batted ball metrics reinforced that power output. His 91.1 MPH average exit velocity placed him in the 83rd percentile league-wide; Dozier’s hard contact and barrel rates were similarly impressive. A higher than average 25.3% strikeout rate and .339 BABIP hinted at some potential regression in future seasons, but Dozier’s power and decent plate discipline positioned him as an above-average offensive performer nonetheless.

The shortened 2020 season, however, proved a difficult one for Dozier. That was the case for plenty of players, but Dozier was one of the players most directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. He tested positive for the coronavirus last July and was forced to start the season on the injured list. Upon his return, he lacked the same power he’d shown the season before. Whether because of his bout with COVID-19 or merely due to the season’s small sample size (he tallied just 186 plate appearances), the Royals clearly feel Dozier’s .228/.344/.392 line was anomalous.

Regaining his footing at the plate is critical for Dozier, who’s rather limited defensively. He broke in as a third baseman, but defensive metrics panned his work at the hot corner from 2018-19. After signing Maikel Franco last offseason, Kansas City mostly limited Dozier to first base and the corner outfield in 2020. Franco is back in free agency, possibly bumping Dozier back to third this year (and perhaps beyond). At his age, it’s doubtful he transforms into an above-average defender at the position.

Last November, Dozier agreed to a $2.72MM deal to avoid arbitration. It remains to be seen if this extension changes that figure. At the moment, the Royals have around $90MM on the books for the upcoming season, right in line with last year’s payroll. Besides Dozier, only Whit Merrifield and recent free agent signees Carlos Santana and Mike Minor have guaranteed money on the books beyond 2021. That should leave plenty of long-term payroll space for the Royals, who will see Salvador Pérez and Jorge Soler reach free agency (barring extensions of their own) next offseason.

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Kansas City Royals Newsstand Transactions Hunter Dozier

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