Mets Believe Jacob deGrom Wants To Stay
Jacob deGrom is expected to have many suitors this winter, but according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the veteran right-hander prefers to stay in Queens. While any deal would require a significant investment, Puma writes that provided there’s not a major discrepancy between offers, deGrom would rather re-sign in New York.
deGrom opted out of his contract at the end of the season, and his free agency will be a fascinating one. The 34-year-old is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game and deserves to be paid accordingly, but his age and injury history will make teams leery of a long term commitment. According to Puma, the Mets are steering clear of a four or five year commitment, instead preferring to give deGrom a shorter contract that could include option years based on the pitcher meeting certain incentives.
The long term concerns over deGrom are justified, he didn’t pitch at all between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022 due to multiple injury problems. Upon returning, he was his usual dominant self, striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters against a 3.4% walk rate on the way to a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts. In fact, whenever healthy he’s been an unbelievably dominant pitcher, pitching to a career 2.59 ERA over 209 starts.
It’s a huge risk/reward free agency given the enormous AAV deGrom will command, but a host of big-market contending clubs will be interested. Puma notes that deGrom places a high value on winning, and believes the Mets are in a position to contend for World Series titles regularly, aiding their case. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $135MM deal for deGrom, which would give him a record AAV of $45MM, just eclipsing the $43.33MM AAV Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.
That sort of commitment would take the Mets’ payroll close to the estimated $282MM mark from this season (per RosterResource), and with other holes in their rotation and bullpen particularly it seems likely their payroll will push closer to $300MM in 2023. The Mets currently have Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill pencilled in as rotation options, so they’ll almost certainly be in the market for multiple starters this winter, even after a possible deGrom signing.
Rays Notes: 40-Man Roster, Trades, Choi, Kiermaier
Several teams are facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter, with the Rays in particular facing a lot of tough decisions due to the depth in their talented farm system. As such, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the Rays have been “in advanced trade negotiations” and could make multiple deals before Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. The Reds, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are among the teams who have called the Rays in search of pitching.
Any number of options could be on the table for a Tampa Bay front office that is always seeking roster and payroll flexibility. It is possible and even likely that the Rays might not swing any major deals, as Tampa might first be exploring the trade value of any players at the back end of their 40-man roster. Before leaving these players unprotected or maybe even non-tendering them or designating them for assignment, the Rays first want to check if anything can be obtained in exchange for these somewhat expendable pieces.
A more interesting wrinkle would see the Rays discussing trades involving prospects or part-time players who might also be a bit superfluous within the organization. Last November, the Rays dealt Louis Head, Mike Brosseau, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Tobias Myers in separate trades in the week prior to the 40-man deadline. Of that group, only Brosseau had some success at the MLB level in 2022, posting some solid numbers in a reserve role with the Brewers.
Of course, the biggest headline-grabber for the Rays would be a trade involving a regular on their Major League roster, and this possibility certainly can’t be ruled out given Tampa’s history of aggressive deal-making. The Rays have a very large arbitration class that they’ve already reduced to “only” 16 remaining players, after trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates and parting ways with Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn. None of the arbitration-eligibles are projected to earn truly huge money, but every dollar counts for the budget-conscious Rays, and Yandy Diaz ($5.4MM in projected salary), Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2MM) and Randy Arozarena ($4MM) are the most expensive of the bunch.
Yonny Chirinos is projected for $1.6MM and Shawn Armstrong for $1.4MM, and those two hurlers stand out since Morosi reported earlier this week that the Rays were discussing Chirinos, Armstrong, and Yarbrough during the GM Meetings. It isn’t known if the Reds, Angels, Cubs, or Mets were focused on any of this trio in particular, but any of those pitchers could be potential fits for teams with rotation or bullpen needs. Chirinos could carry the most intrigue, as the right-hander pitched well in 2018-19 before injuries (a Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow) limited him to just 18 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 campaign.
Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary certainly played a role in his move to Pittsburgh, and the Rays were known to be talking to more than just the Pirates about the first baseman. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Padres and Astros also had some interest, with Houston revisiting their interest in Choi from prior to the trade deadline.
The Astros ended up adding Trey Mancini to bolster themselves at first base, but since Mancini and Yuli Gurriel are both free agents, it makes sense that the Astros would again check in on a past target. Likewise, the Padres have a need at first base with Josh Bell hitting the open market. Choi is scheduled for free agency himself next winter and thus probably wouldn’t have been seen a longer-term add for either team, or even a full-time option. Either Houston or San Diego might have opted to just play Choi against right-handed pitching.
Also from Topkin’s notes column, he had an interesting wrinkle to the end of Kevin Kiermaier‘s tenure in Tampa Bay. There was no doubt that the Rays were going to buy out Kiermaier for $2.5MM rather than exercise his $13MM club option for 2023, yet Kiermaier said that he heard an unknown team had some talks with the Rays about a veritable sign-and-trade deal. In this scenario, the Rays would have exercised the club option and then swapped Kiermaier to this mystery team.
Given that Kiermaier is coming off a season shortened by hip surgery, it doesn’t seem likely that the other club would’ve been too keen to give up an asset to absorb that entire $13MM contract. It is more probable that the other team perhaps offered another undesirable contract in return to help offset the cost, or maybe had Kiermaier involved as part of a larger trade package. In any case, the Rays weren’t interested, and preferred to just decline the option — perhaps with an eye towards re-signing Kiermaier at a lower price.
NL West Notes: Bellinger, Longoria, Diamondbacks, Johnson
With former MVP Cody Bellinger projected to earn $18.1MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, there has been plenty of speculation that the 27-year-old might not be tendered a contract. Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was non-committal about Belllinger’s situation, telling reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers “still very much believe in Belli’s ability,” and that the club has “time to work through what everything looks like” prior to Friday’s deadline.
Unsurprisingly, Bellinger’s agent Scott Boras was quick to downplay the idea of a non-tender, as Boras highlighted his client’s excellent defense, throwing arm, baserunning ability, and age (27). “You just don’t find talents like this….It’s really about getting his strength back so he can repeat his skill level,” Boras said, noting the injuries that may have caused Bellinger’s huge dropoff at the plate over the last two seasons. Bellinger has hit only .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 campaign. However, both Boras and Friedman pointed to the idea that a normal and healthy offseason could help Bellinger get on track, as Bellinger’s regular work with the Dodgers’ hitting coaches and conditioning staff was interrupted last winter by the lockout.
Other notes from around the NL West…
- Evan Longoria said last month that the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks were his preferred destinations for his final season, with the D’Backs listed alongside Longoria’s two former teams because the veteran third baseman has a home in Arizona. As such, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks are indeed expected to check in on Longoria in free agency. The 37-year-old has hit a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season, but injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games. Josh Rojas‘ versatility would allow for Longoria to get some time at third base and at DH, and the D’Backs are looking for right-handed hitting in general. As Piecoro notes, Longoria has some extra appeal as a veteran leader on a young team.
- Also from Piecoro’s post, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters that “we have had half the league, at least, talk about our outfielders.” With so many left-handed hitting young outfielders on the roster, it isn’t surprising that teams are eager to discuss trades about Arizona’s surplus. However, Hazen quieted rumblings that a trade would occur soon, saying “we’re just starting to get a handle on what type of offers we could make and what makes sense for us to help our major league team.”
- It doesn’t appear as though Pierce Johnson will re-sign with the Padres, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Elbow tendinitis cost Johnson most of the 2022 campaign, as he pitched only 14 1/3 innings over 15 appearances in the regular season and then 4 1/3 more frames during the playoffs. The 31-year-old Johnson had strong (3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate) numbers over 78 2/3 innings in 2020-21, albeit with a high 11.1% walk rate. Since San Diego seems to be moving on, Johnson and his excellent curveball could be an intriguing bounce-back target for the many teams looking for bullpen help in free agency.
Mariners Scouting Masataka Yoshida
The Mariners have joined the growing list of teams interested in Japanese star outfielder Masataka Yoshida, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Morosi adds that the Mariners will be one of Yoshida’s “top suitors” this winter. However, Yoshida’s current team, the Orix Buffaloes, will have to finalize the terms of his posting agreement before the deadline on December 5th.
Yoshida slashed a robust .336/.449/.559 with 21 homers during the 2022 season, his fifth consecutive season with an on-base percentage greater than .400. His blend of contact and power has led to a lot of early interest in the 29-year-old, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that the Yankees are also looking at the left-handed hitter.
During the 2022 season, the Mariners primarily relied on an outfield trio of All-Star Julio Rodriguez and former All-Stars Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker. That group was aided by utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell. The Mariners also have 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, who spent most of the season in Triple-A Tacoma. Of that group, only Haniger is a free agent, leaving Seattle with a deep outfield mix.
As noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, since Yoshida has not played enough to earn full free agency, the Buffaloes would have to agree to post their star outfielder and would be entitled to a posting fee based on Yoshida’s major league contract. Under the current MLB-NPB agreement, teams interested in Yoshida would have to pay the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Once posted, Yoshida and his representatives will have only 30 days to negotiate a deal with MLB teams. If no agreement is reached during the 30-day window, Yoshida would have to return to the Buffaloes.
Recent players who made the jump from NPB to MLB include Cubs’ outfielder Seiya Suzuki. In Suzuki’s last season with the Hiroshima Carp, the righty slashed .317/.433/.636 which led him to a five-year, $85MM contract with Chicago. However, Suzuki was only 27-years-old when he transitioned to Majors and had posted an OPS north of 1.000 in three of his last four seasons with the Carp.
Red Sox Offer Nathan Eovaldi A Multi-Year Contract
The Red Sox have reportedly offered All-Star starter Nathan Eovaldi a multi-year contract, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, Bradford notes that a deal between the two parties is not imminent. News of talks between Boston and Eovaldi comes only a few days after the Red Sox issued the righty a qualifying offer (one-year, $19.65MM) that tied draft compensation to the veteran if he signs with a different team.
After making a career-high 32 starts (182 1/3 innings) in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with lower back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, the latter of which limited him to only seven starts in the second half of the season. When healthy, Eovaldi pitched to a strong 3.87 ERA, striking out 22.4% of batters while limiting walks (4.4%). The 22.4% strikeout rate represented a drop from his 2020 (26.1%) and 2021 (25.5%) rates but was accompanied by an increase in his ground ball rate, 47.3% compared to 42.1% in 2021.
Eovaldi had originally joined the Red Sox in 2018, being flipped in late July by the Rays for Jalen Beeks. He quickly earned his worth, helping the franchise win the 2018 World Series before re-signing with Boston on a four-year, $68MM deal that offseason. Over the course of that contract, Eovaldi made 53 starts, pitching 281 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA baseball with strong strikeout (24.4%) and walk (5.6%) rates.
As seen in our 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agent With Predictions list, MLBTR expected Eovaldi to receive a shorter deal (2-year, $34MM) after missing part of the season with injuries.
NL Central Notes: Brewers Pitching, Cardinals, Reynolds
Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.
Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.
After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.
Here’s some more from around the National League Central:
- The Cardinals have a clear need at catcher following the retirement of Yadier Molina, and it seems they could fill that hole with the top free agent catcher Willson Contreras. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Cards are one team (alongside the Tigers and Astros) to have expressed interest in Contreras. The slugging catcher hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466 in 113 games this year with the Cubs. They did issue him with a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the event they did sign him. Currently Andrew Knizner is the top catcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but he profiles as more of a backup so it’s not surprising to see the team linked with free agent catchers.
- Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds‘ elite production and years of control – along with Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild – have made him one of the most coveted trade pieces in recent years, but according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Bucs are unlikely to trade him this off-season. Reynolds can be a free agent after the 2025 season, and despite their second-straight 100-loss year, Morosi says the Pirates believe they can be competitive within that window. Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 home runs in 2022, a solid year but down on his lofty standards. A year ago, Reynolds slashed .302/.390/.522 and finished eleventh in NL MVP voting. On the whole, Reynolds is a quality hitter that almost any major league team would find room for. Defensively, Reynolds has split time between left and center fields, but grades out better in left with seven Defensive Runs Saved there in his career, against -16 in center. He’s put up 13.6 bWAR across four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 year) and has given Pittsburgh a star to cheer for through some lean years. Ultimately, there’s reasonable cases to be made for and against trading Reynolds, and while Morosi’s tweet doesn’t rule out a trade by any stretch, given Pittsburgh’s turned down trade interest in recent years there’s a good chance they keep him and look to build around him again in 2023.
Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Correa, Lux, Shortstop
The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.
Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.
It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.
To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux‘s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.
It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.
Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.
As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).
Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.
At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.
Phillies Notes: Jean Segura, Payroll, Bryce Harper
The Phillies came up short in their quest to win their third World Series title, ending a roller-coaster of a season with hot streaks, cold streaks, a managerial replacement, and an injury to their star player. Despite all this tumult, Philadelphia danced their way to their first playoff appearance since 2011 and their first World Series berth since 2009, defeating the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres en route to the Fall Classic.
As the franchise pivots to off-season mode, they will have a few questions to answer starting with Jean Segura. Previously discussed in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Series, Segura headlines a relatively weak second-base free agent class, and the Phillies currently hold a $17MM club option with a $1MM buyout on the veteran’s 2023 service. On the heels of a solid 2022 season which saw him post a .277/.336/386 slash line, the Phillies may opt to save money and use a combination of Edmundo Sosa and Bryson Stott to man second base, having rumored interest in long-time Red Sox Xander Bogaerts.
For his part, Segura has expressed a desire to remain in Philadelphia, having told the media, “to be honest, there’s nothing more special than playing in front of Phillies fans…It’s just a pleasure to be able to play in front of those amazing fans,” reports Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation. Segura went on to add that he “would love to finish my career in Philadelphia.”
The Phillies currently have an estimated 2023 Payroll of $161MM, per Roster Resource. After having spent $242MM this past season, the club is expected to continue to add to their core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber along with younger players such as Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Stott.
For his part, Harper is sure that President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and owner John Middleton are going to add to the team, telling reporters that “we’re gonna be the same team but with some more pieces to make us that much better,” per NBC Sports Philadelphia. Manager Rob Thomson shares a similar sentiment, telling reporters after the game that the Phillies roster is “sustainable,” going on to explain that Philadelphia has “a good group of veteran guys, and our system is starting to get loaded up with very good arms at the end of the minor league system,” per Maria McIlwain of The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Harper, despite being diagnosed with a tear in his right UCL in early May, slashed a strong .286/.364/.514 with 18 homers, earning his first trip to the All-Star game in a Phillies uniform. He missed additional time during the season, initially landing on the 10-day IL in late June with a fractured left thumb before being shifted to the 60-day IL in mid-August. Nevertheless, due to the introduction of the universal DH, the Phillies were able to use Harper in a DH-only fashion, salvaging a season from their star player. This rule change helped the Phillies reach the postseason, in which Harper slashed an outlandish .349/.414/.746 with 6 homers in 63 at-bats.
Now that the 2022 season is officially over, Harper’s rehabilitation plan will likely come to light in the upcoming days. Position players that have recently suffered damage to their UCL include Dodgers’ infielder Max Muncy at the end of the 2021 season and Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager at the start of the 2018 season. Muncy opted not to undergo surgery and said that the recovery was not as quick as he had hoped and that six months after the injury, he wasn’t fully recovered. In contrast, Seager underwent surgery and missed the remainder of the season before returning for the 2020 season. Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but, depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.
NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar
Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services. As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders). The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop. While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022. Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon. “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season. Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.” As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
- Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play. A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing. The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut. Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.
Cubs Injury Notes: Canario, Davis, Amaya
Cubs outfield prospect Alexander Canario suffered a badly fractured ankle and a dislocated shoulder during a Dominican Winter League game on Thursday, according to multiple sources (including reporter Arturo Bisono). While trying to beat out a grounder, Canario awkwardly stepped on the bag and then fell to the ground in obvious pain.
It would seem like Canario will face a substantial amount of recovery time, though no timeline has yet been announced by the Cubs. This is the second notable shoulder injury of Canario’s short career, as he also had surgery to fix a torn labrum in November 2020. Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and then the recovery from his surgery, it isn’t surprising that Canario had modest numbers in 2021, playing with both the Giants’ A-ball affiliate and the Cubs’ high-A team.
Acquired from San Francisco as part of the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the 22-year-old Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and 23 steals (from 26 chances) over 534 combined plate appearances at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels last season. This excellent performance sent Canario within the top 10 of Chicago prospects, as per both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. It also put Canario on the radar of several rival teams scouting the Cubs as possible trade partners, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, but Canario’s status as a trade chip or as a possible difference-maker in Wrigleyville is now on hold until his recovers.
Brennen Davis has also been sidelined by injury, as lower back tightness limited him to just five games in the Arizona Fall League before the Cubs shut him down. Sharma writes that the club hadn’t determined the nature of this new injury, but it doesn’t seem similar to the problem (a vascular formation on his sciatic nerve) that required Davis to undergo back surgery in June.
A consensus pick as Chicago’s second-best prospect and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, Davis has hit .255/.363/.444 over 906 professional PA since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft. Multiple injuries have slowed Davis’ progress, as beyond his back surgery, Davis has also had to recover from a concussion and broken nose (after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training), as well as finger injuries in 2019.
Despite all these setbacks, Davis was still moving up the minor league ladder and playing well, before his back problems led to a down year in 2022 and a probable promotion to the majors. Sharma notes that the Cubs are still expected to place Davis on the 40-man roster this winter, since even with the back concerns, he would surely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft.
Miguel Amaya was placed on the 40-man back in November 2019, yet the catching prospect has barely played in the following three years. Beyond the canceled 2020 minors season, Amaya was limited to 23 games in 2021 and then 40 games in 2022 due largely to a forearm strain that resulted in Tommy John surgery. Once Amaya made it back this season, he was limited to DH duty, and then his path back to catching was halted when he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in mid-September.
“My offseason focus is to be the best version of me for 2023, and whatever happens, happens,” Amaya told Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Sun-Times. “I just want to be healthy to show everyone who Miguel Amaya is and just have fun and play the baseball I know.”
Amaya has been limited to shoulder and elbow exercises while his foot heals, and while he hasn’t much recent contact with Willson Contreras, Amaya also cited the veteran catcher as an important mentor during his development. In theory, Amaya might’ve already established himself as Contreras’ replacement if healthy, as Contreras is headed into free agency this winter. A top-100 prospect prior to his Tommy John surgery, Amaya might be a factor for the big league roster later in 2023, though he has only 51 games at the Double-A level and nothing in Triple-A.