NL East Notes: Dombrowski, Phillies, Duquette, Diaz, Mets, Ibanez
Dave Dombrowski’s contract as the Phillies‘ president of baseball operations runs through the 2024 season, and it contains a special clause that would allow him to leave if offered a job with an expansion team in Nashville. However, in the wake of the Phils’ run to the NL pennant, there is obvious interest in keeping him in Philadelphia for many years to come, and an extension looks to be in the works. “There’s not a chance that we’ll let him get away,” managing partner John Middleton told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
Before Dombrowski finally agreed to speak with the Phillies in the 2020-21 offseason, Nightengale reports that the team had narrowed it search for a new front office boss down to Twins GM Thad Levine and former Orioles/Red Sox GM Dan Duquette. Levine was known to be a top candidate at the time of the search, but Duquette wasn’t previously known to be on the Phillies’ radar at all. Since parting ways with the Orioles after the 2018 season, Duquette was linked to the Pirates’ GM search before Pittsburgh hired Ben Cherington.
More from around the NL East…
- Edwin Diaz is one of several prominent Mets players slated for free agency, but the Mets “believe they have the best chance to keep” Diaz of anyone in that top-tier group, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes. Re-signing Diaz might well cost the Mets the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, but Diaz’s case for such a deal is pretty sound, considering his excellent performance. Since an increasing number of teams are reluctant to pay top dollar for relievers, this could give the Mets something of an advantage in keeping the All-Star in the fold.
- Also from Heyman, he reports that Raul Ibanez spoke with the Marlins about their managerial vacancy, though Ibanez took himself out of the hunt “due to family considerations.” Ibanez has spent the last two seasons working with MLB as a senior VP of on-field operations, and previously worked as a special assistant in the Dodgers organization after retiring from his playing career. Though he doesn’t have any managing or coaching experience, the widely-respected Ibanez has surfaced as a managerial candidate in the past, though he has consistently declined interviews. Talking with the Marlins perhaps represents some softening on Ibanez’s stance, though since he lives in Miami, it is possible he saw this specific job as a unique opportunity. The Marlins announced Skip Schumaker as their new skipper on Tuesday.
Cardinals Recently Met With Nolan Arenado; Team Also Planning To Pursue Catching Help
It’s been a Cardinals-heavy day in the news, with the team agreeing to re-sign Adam Wainwright for what will be his 18th Major League season. St. Louis also announced that a trio of coaches will not return for the 2023 season — one day after losing bench coach Skip Schumaker, who’ll become the new Marlins manager. Beyond that pair of headlines, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak held court with the Cardinals beat, revealing in an extensive press conference that he recently met in person with Nolan Arenado about the third baseman’s looming opt-out (link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Beyond that, Mozeliak pledged that the Cardinals’ payroll will increase and unsurprisingly acknowledged he’ll be on the lookout for a successor to Yadier Molina this offseason.
Chief among those details is the team’s recent meeting with Arenado, who can opt out of the remaining five years and $144MM on his contract this winter. Mozeliak indicated there’s a sense of optimism regarding a resolution on that front, though there’s nothing official between the two parties just yet.
A year ago, that opt-out provision was far from a lock to come into play. Arenado chose to forego an opt-out clause last winter, when he could’ve returned to the market and sought a larger guarantee than the six years and $179MM he had remaining on the contract. Arenado was coming off a strong season but far from his best year, having batted .255/.312/.494 in his first season following a trade from the Rockies.
One year can make quite a difference, however. A sensational 2022 campaign has Arenado among the front-runners for National League MVP honors (alongside teammate Paul Goldschmidt), and with $144MM remaining on the deal, an opt-out now looks far likelier. The nine-time Gold Glove winner and five-time Platinum Glover turned in a sensational .293/.358/.533 batting line with 30 home runs, 42 doubles, a triple, a career-low 11.6% strikeout rate and his typical brand of elite defense at the hot corner. Despite the fact that he’ll turn 32 next April, Arenado suddenly has an easy case to eclipse the remaining money on his contract.
Granted, it’s rare for players of this age to secure contracts of more than five years in length, although exceptions are often made for the game’s top stars. One need only look to this past March, when Freddie Freeman inked a six-year deal with the Dodgers — one that, as will be the case with Arenado, begins in his age-32 season. Even if the market were to draw a hard line at five years for Arenado, there’d surely be a greater annual value than his current $28.8MM waiting for him in free agency. Annual salaries in excess of $30MM have become increasingly common, and Arenado himself at one point held the record for position player AAV ($32.5MM). That AAV took a hit when the Cardinals tacked on an additional year and $15MM at the time of the trade — but also granted Arenado a second opt-out opportunity.
Since Arenado signed his extension, Anthony Rendon ($35MM), Mike Trout ($36MM), Carlos Correa ($35.1MM), Corey Seager ($32.5MM) Francisco Lindor ($34.1MM) have all inked deals with annual salaries equal to or in excess of Arenado’s original AAV (to say nothing of Gerrit Cole’s $36MM annual value with the Yankees and Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM with the Mets). On the heels of such a brilliant season, Arenado could well find an AAV in the mid-30s over a five- or six-year term.
Understandably, the Cardinals appear to have little interest in allowing things to reach that point. Arenado’s opt-out decision is due five days after the World Series draws to a close, but the Cardinals can spend the interim trying to persuade him to stay. Tacking on an additional year or perhaps restructuring the deal to pay him at an annual rate more commensurate with the sport’s top hitters could well be in play over the next couple weeks.
All of that dovetails with Mozeliak’s comments about a forthcoming payroll hike. The Cardinals already have $105MM in guaranteed salary between Arenado, Goldschmidt, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Giovanny Gallegos, Paul DeJong and Drew VerHagen (though the Rockies are reportedly covering $21MM of Arenado’s 2023 salary under the terms of the trade). Whatever salary Wainwright agreed to will add to that figure, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects just shy of $40MM in salary for the team’s 11 arbitration-eligible players. There are some non-tender candidates within — Mozeliak mentioned Alex Reyes’ name when discussing looming 40-man roster decisions, per Jones — but the majority of that arbitration class is a lock to return.
That gives the Cardinals more than $150MM on the books before even factoring in a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the payroll. Jones notes that last year’s payroll, following trade deadline acquisitions, clocked in around $170MM. Extending or restructuring Arenado’s contract won’t necessarily impact the 2023 payroll on its own — he’s owed $35MM and the Rockies are paying that $21MM to the Cardinals even if Arenado were to opt out — but there are clearly other needs to consider.
Catching help, as Mozeliak acknowledged, figures to be among the most critical needs. Molina, a franchise icon, has played the final game of his Major League career, but the win-now Cardinals unsurprisingly aren’t content to merely hand the reins over to Andrew Knizner or prospect Ivan Herrera. Jones notes that the team will likely be looking for a starting-caliber option and not a part-time player.
The free-agent market has a handful of starting options, headlined by longtime division rival Willson Contreras but also including Christian Vazquez and Omar Narvaez. On the trade market, Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available as the A’s continue their rebuild, and the Blue Jays have a surplus at backstop with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno all on the 40-man roster and capable of shouldering a starter’s workload at the MLB level. Other options, of course, will emerge.
With Wainwright back, the rotation doesn’t figure to be a dire need, though depth could be pursued. The Cards will have Wainwright, Mikolas, Matz, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery as the likely top five, with Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford serving as depth. Mozeliak and his staff will still likely be on the hunt for upgrades at some combination of shortstop, outfield and designated hitter, however, as the Cardinals look to inject more force into the lineup. Bullpen help is a near-annual need for every contending club.
For the time being, now that Wainwright’s status has been resolved, all roads will point to Arenado. Whether he and the Cardinals are able to reach a middle ground will not only shape the long-term outlook of the organization as we know it but also the very fabric of the 2022-23 offseason. If Arenado were to reach free agency, he’d join the likes of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Correa atop another star-studded open market.
Quick Hits: Reds, Wheeler, Morel, Rays Ballpark
The Reds had a longstanding interest in Zack Wheeler as both a trade target and then when the righty entered free agency in the 2019-20 offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently revisited that free agent pursuit, which ended when the Phillies signed Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract. According to Nightengale, the Reds were also willing to spend beyond $100MM to sign Wheeler, but they may have been undone by geography more than just dollars. Wheeler prioritized staying on the East Coast and closer to his wife’s home state of New Jersey, giving the Phils the edge over both the Reds and the White Sox (who reportedly offered more than $118MM).
Needless to say, signing Wheeler would’ve changed the entire trajectory of recent Reds history, not to mention the Phillies’ last three seasons and their current berth in the 2022 World Series. As Nightengale notes, the Reds went on to sign Nick Castellanos (for $64MM over four years) and Shogo Akiyama ($21MM over three years) after Wheeler left the market, and it isn’t known if either of those deals could’ve or would’ve still happened if Cincinnati had made its big investment in Wheeler’s contract.
More from around the baseball world…
- Christopher Morel had a solid rookie season, hitting .235/.308/.433 with 16 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Cubs. Beyond his contributions at the plate, Morel also started games as a second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, center fielder, and left fielder. ‘There’s not many guys in the big leagues that can do what he does, the consistency he’s shown at times in each position,’’ Cubs assistant coach Jonathan Mota told Maddie Lee of the Chicago-Sun Times. A super-utility role would make Morel a valuable commodity on the roster, and both Morel and the Cubs seem committed to continuing his prep work at multiple positions going forward.
- Tampa-area businessman Darryl Shaw recently bought 25 acres of waterfront land in the Ybor City neighborhood, and as John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times explains, Shaw tried in the past to work with the Rays in other ventures in the Ybor area. Shaw’s new land purchase might therefore revive the idea of a new Rays ballpark in downtown Tampa, though Romano notes that this could be a long shot for a variety of reasons, including a lack of committed civic funding and the Rays’ increased interest in a new park (and accompanying “baseball village” infrastructure) built on the grounds of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Any number of proposals involving Tampa, St. Pete, and even Montreal have been floated over the years as the Rays look for a new home, and it remains to be seen if any answer can be found before the club’s lease at the Trop expires after the 2027 season. Rays team president Matt Silverman said that “city and county officials on both sides of the bay seem to appreciate the value of baseball and are focused on finding a solution. The discussions are going on simultaneously in a parallel, non-competitive, non-adversarial way. Everyone understands time is of the essence.”
Marlins Interview Astros’ Oz Ocampo For Assistant GM Position
The Miami Marlins have interviewed Astros executive Oz Ocampo for an Assistant General Manager position, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).
With Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February, and manager Don Mattingly’s announcement that he would not be returning to the Marlins for the 2023 season, General Manager Kim Ng has been tasked with both rebuilding the Marlins’ organization and roster. Miami currently has two other Assistant GMs — Daniel Greenlee, who joined the organization in 2017, and Brian Chattin, who has been with the organization for over a decade.
Ocampo began his baseball career as a scout for the Cardinals in the Dominican Republic. He then worked directly for the league in an International Baseball Operations role before joining the Astros and helping to develop their international scouting and player development pipeline, signing four key pitchers currently on the Astros’ roster: Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy. He then left the Astros and joined the Pirates in a special assistant role before returning to Houston this past offseason.
A Breakout Reliever In The Desert: Joe Mantiply
Amidst a rebuild, the Arizona Diamondbacks are finally seeing the fruits of their labor. Led by promising starters Zac Gallen, 2.54 ERA in 184 innings, and Merrill Kelly, 3.37 ERA in 200 1/3 innings, and backed offensively by a quartet of promising young outfield talent, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, and Corbin Carroll, the D-Backs are quickly re-entering a competitive window.
However, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is still falling flat. After signing Mark Melancon to a 2-year, $12MM contract ($5MM mutual option for the 2024 season, $2MM buyout) and Ian Kennedy to a 1-year, $4.5MM contract ($4MM club option for the 2023 season, $250K buyout), the D-Backs’ pen posted the sixth-highest ERA (4.58), the eighth-most blown saves (27), the lowest strikeout rate (19.7%), and allowed the third-highest batting average (.254). Veterans Melancon and Kennedy did not fare much better. Melancon pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings with a paltry 14.2% strikeout rate and a career-worst 43.2% ground ball rate, while Kennedy pitched to a 5.36 ERA in 50 1/3 innings with a weak 19.0% strikeout rate and an extremely low 24.4% groundball rate.
However, the breakout of lefty journeyman Joe Mantiply was a bright spot among an otherwise weak bullpen performance. Mantiply, a former 27th-round pick from Virginia Tech by the Tigers in 2013, reached the majors for a quick stint in 2016, before shuffling around various minor league teams and undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. He signed a minor league deal with Arizona in 2020, making another short appearance in 2020 before eventually joining the team in a more long-term fashion during the 2021 season, in which he pitched 39 2/3 innings to a 3.40 ERA with opponents hitting a strong .292/.358/.448 against him.
In the 2022 season Mantiply, who is controllable through the 2026 season, improved his 2021 numbers. Pitching to a low 2.85 ERA in 60 innings with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.5% walk rate, and missing hitters’ barrels (99th percentile for Chase Rate, 94th percentile for Barrel %), the 31-year-old earned a trip to the All-Star game in his second full season. Left-handed hitters have found limited success against Mantiply, slashing a poor .247/.297/.282 against him, while righties are hitting a slightly better .260/.272/.404. The unsightly .252 combined average may be cause for concern, however, Mantiply is tied for the 27th lowest Hard Hit%, among relievers to pitch 50+ innings, and is in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity.
The Diamondbacks will likely look to address their bullpen again this offseason, but with a high-leverage lefty reliever in Mantiply, they will have one less bullpen spot to fill.
AL Central Notes: Maddon, White Sox, Hedges, Guardians, Twins
As the White Sox continue to hunt for a new manager, one prominent name yet to be involved in the mix is Joe Maddon. The former Rays/Cubs/Angels skipper told the Cubs Talk podcast (on NBC Sports Chicago, hat tip to Tim Stebbins) that “I’ve not heard from [the White Sox] at all,” though Maddon would “of course…be interested” in chatting with the team. Maddon has yet to be publicly linked to any of the open managerial vacancies this winter, though he has remained in the news due to a publicity tour for his upcoming book.
For a White Sox team that is reportedly hoping to replace Tony La Russa with another experienced manager, Maddon would seem like an intriguing candidate on paper, given both his long and successful track record and his past Chicago ties. However, of the four candidates linked thus far to the Sox job, two (Ron Washington and Ozzie Guillen) have past experience managing in the majors, while the other two (Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Astros bench coach Joe Espada) would be first-time skippers at the MLB level.
More from around the AL Central…
- There is mutual interest between the Guardians and Austin Hedges in a reunion, Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes and other reporters. Hedges is slated for free agency this winter, and was again one of the game’s stronger defensive catchers. For a Guardians team that has prioritized glovework and game-calling behind the plate, this has been enough to ensure regular playing time for Hedges, despite his lack of production as a hitter. Hedges has hit only .189/.247/.331 over 2001 career plate appearances with San Diego and Cleveland — his 54 wRC+ is the lowest of any player in baseball (minimum 2000 PA) since the start of the 2015 season. The Guardians have prospect Bo Naylor knocking on the door and another veteran catcher in Luke Maile until arbitration control, though Maile is a non-tender candidate. Hedges’ price tag shouldn’t be too prohibitive, which could allow Cleveland to create some competition in Spring Training and perhaps make Maile the odd man out even if he was tendered a contract.
- The Twins are looking for a new head trainer this offseason, once again looking to fill a position that has been a revolving door for the organization. As La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune points out, the Twins have already had three head trainers since 2016, and there has been plenty of other personnel turnover in the strength and conditioning departments. While it’s common for teams to regularly undergo some staffing changes, the lack of consistency stands out in regards to the Twins, given that they were buried by injuries throughout the season.
Injury Notes: Robertson, Benintendi, Means
Phillies right-hander David Robertson threw a bullpen session yesterday and went through fielding drills, tweets Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That’s the first baseball activity for the veteran closer since sustaining a calf strain while celebrating Bryce Harper‘s home run during the team’s Wild Card win over the Cardinals. Robertson was left off the roster for the Phillies’ NLDS showdown with the Braves, but throwing off a mound and running through some fielding drills Monday at least opens the door for him to be reinstated for Philadelphia’s NLCS date with San Diego. The Phils will make a formal announcement on their NLCS roster by 10am PT this morning.
A few more injury items of note…
- Yankees outfielder Andrew Benintendi received an injection in his wrist this week after experiencing continued pain in his ailing right wrist, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Benintendi underwent surgery in early September after suffering a hamate fracture in his wrist and has not appeared in a game since. There’s been hope that, if the Yankees advance beyond today’s ALDS Game 5 against the Guardians, that he could potentially return for the ALCS, though the latest update on him casts plenty of doubt on that possibility. If the Yankees were to advance, they’d have to announce an ALCS roster by 10am CT tomorrow. Benintendi hit .304/.373/.399 with five home runs in 521 plate appearances prior to his injury — including a .254/.331/.404 output in 131 plate appearances with the Yankees (following a trade from the Royals).
- Orioles lefty John Means underwent Tommy John surgery back in late April, and just shy of six months later he’s resumed throwing. Means shared video his session yesterday, labeling it “day one” of his return to a throwing program. There’s still a long road back from this point, as Means isn’t throwing anywhere near 100% at this juncture and will have plenty of milestones to clear as he rehabs his new elbow ligament and eventually builds up strength to return to a Major League mound. An early summer return in 2023 would be a good outcome, though each pitcher’s recovery from Tommy John surgery varies. Means, who’s pitched to a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 innings since making his big league debut with the O’s, signed a two-year, $5.925MM deal covering the 2022 season and 2023 season but is under club control via arbitration through the 2024 campaign.
Braves Notes: Dansby Swanson, Charlie Morton, Kenley Jansen
After following up their underdog 2021 Cinderella World Series win with an improved 101-win season, the Braves have been eliminated from the 2022 postseason by the Phillies. With their 2022 season in the rearview mirror, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will be hard at work improving the already impressive Braves core.
Perhaps the most important question facing the Braves as they head into the offseason is their hole at shortstop. Atlanta native Dansby Swanson has been the Braves’ starting shortstop since 2016, and will be a free agent for the first this offseason after receiving a $10MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Braves had opened extension talks with Swanson in mid-August, but there has yet to be a tangible result.
Swanson, who is coming off his fourth consecutive strong season, slashed .277/.329/.447 while posting the highest Outs Above Average (20) among qualified shortstops en route to his first All-Star appearance. He joins Trea Turner, and, if they exercise their opt-outs, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as the top options at short.
When asked about his thoughts on free agency and potentially leaving the Braves, Swanson responded that free agency is “the last thing on my mind,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, Anthopoulos confirmed in a press conference earlier today that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done, but he didn’t provide specific figures, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
The Braves, who have become notorious in recent seasons for signing players in the early stage of their career to ‘team-friendly’ contracts (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley), currently have roughly $186MM committed to the 2023 season, not factoring in arbitration, per Roster Resource. However, out of arbitration-eligible players, only starter Max Fried is predicted to significantly impact the Braves’ payroll, with other arbitration-eligible players expected to earn under $3MM if they are tendered contracts.
Importantly, in the 2021 offseason, the Braves reportedly offered long-time first baseman Freddie Freeman a five-year contract in the $135MM-$140MM range. When talks stalled, the Braves moved to acquire Matt Olson from the Athletics, signing him to an eight-year, $168MM contract. Freeman then went on to sign with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162MM contract.
The Braves, potentially, already have Swanson’s replacement in Vaughn Grissom, who posted a strong .291/.353/.440 line in 151 at-bats after being called up in mid-August. Grissom has primarily played second in his brief Major League career but came up through the Minors as a shortstop. If Swanson is re-signed, Grissom may be forced to transition to the outfield or work as a utility player with Riley and Albies patrolling the infield.
Transitioning to the mound, starter Charlie Morton was forced to exit yesterday’s game in the third inning after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow. Morton initially stayed in the game and completed the inning but was pulled by manager Brian Snitker after Snitker watched Morton warm up prior to the third inning. During an in-game interview, Snitker announced that x-rays showed no structural damage in Morton’s elbow, and that Morton wanted to try and continue to pitch, per Mike Axisa of CBS.
Morton had pitched two innings prior to leaving the game, giving up four hits and three runs, all on a Brandon Marsh homer. Morton, who turns 39 in November was a steady force in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 172 innings (31 starts) with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate. His strong performance led to a one-year, $20MM contract extension for the 2023 season, with a $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign.
Reliever Kenley Jansen is entering free agency, but Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Braves would “love to have him back,” per Toscano. After leaving the Dodgers in free agency to join the Braves on a one-year, $16MM contract, Jansen led the National League in saves with 41, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with a lofty 32.7% strikeout rate. However, Jansen’s HardHit percentage spiked from 26.1% in 2021 to 32.5% in 2022, and his ground ball rate dropped from 37.3% to 29.1%, the second-lowest mark of his career.
If the Braves and Jansen are unable to come to an agreement, they likely have his successor in Raisel Iglesias who was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez. Since joining Atlanta, Iglesias has allowed only one run in 26 1/3 innings, resulting in a minuscule 0.32 ERA. These strong numbers are backed by a high 30.0% strikeout rate, a low 5.0% walk rate, and a solid 40.6% ground ball rate.
Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Bellinger, Turner, Anderson
Despite winning a league-leading 111 games, the Dodgers will find themselves watching the World Series rather than playing in it, having lost yesterday’s game to the Padres, and bowing out of the NLDS. With the 2022 season now behind them, the Dodgers’ front office will be tasked with configuring the team’s 2023 roster.
Nine-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw returned to the Dodgers this past offseason on a one-year, $17MM contract with incentives, and, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in September, the southpaw is leaning towards playing in the 2023 season.
Following yesterday’s game, Kershaw announced a similar intent, telling reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again,” per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. However, the lefty added that “we’ll see what happens. Going home and being around and being a full-time dad changes your perspective on things,” per Ardaya.
Now a veteran of 15 Major League seasons, Kershaw has been a Dodger his entire career. However, the lefty was heavily courted by his hometown Rangers during the 2021 off-season, a team that will once again look to add pitching in the off-season. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Rangers were “willing to give Kershaw more years, more money” in addition to the chance to “play home games 20 minutes from his house in Dallas.”
The Dodgers have more control over what happens with Cody Bellinger. With one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, the Dodgers will be forced to make a difficult decision regarding the 2019 NL MVP.
Bellinger and the Dodgers avoided arbitration this past offseason, agreeing to a one-year, $17MM contract before the lockout. However, the lefty has yet to perform at a similar level to his 2019 magical season. This past season Bellinger slashed .210/.265/.389 with 19 homers in 504 at-bats, improving upon his 2021 season, in which he posted a .165/.240/.302 line, but nowhere close to his .305/.406/.629 2019 season.
When asked about Bellinger, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts replied that “it’s difficult” and that he has given Bellinger “a lot of leash because he’s earned it,” per Ardaya. Importantly, as predicted by Matt Swartz’s model, Bellinger is expected to earn $18.1MM in arbitration this winter. It will be hard for any team, regardless of payroll size, to justify paying that sum to a player who has hit a collective .203/.272/.376 over the past three seasons.
If the Dodgers opt to cut Bellinger, there will likely be plenty of suitors for the 27-year-old, who slashed .278/.369/.559 throughout his first three Major League seasons.
14-year veteran Justin Turner finds himself in a similar situation to Bellinger, with the Dodgers holding a $16MM option, with a $2MM buyout, on the third baseman. Turner had a slow start to his season, slashing .256/.331/.403 over the first half before finding his grove and hitting .319/.386/.503 over the second half. However, the veteran, who will be 38-years-old next season, ended the season flat, going 4 for 24 over his last seven games and 2 for 13 against the Padres.
With the Dodgers opening the 2022 season with an all-time-high $310.6MM payroll and paying nearly $47M in luxury tax, the front office may be forced to shed Turner’s contract in an attempt to re-sign other free agents.
Switching to Dodgers’ free agents, a pair of All-Stars in Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson join the previously mentioned Clayton Kershaw.
Trea Turner is coming off his second All-Star appearance in as many years, slashing .298/.343/.466. It is a notch down from his 2021 season, where the righty posted a collective .328/.375/.536 between the Dodgers and Nationals but it should not affect his stock as a premier shortstop amongst a robust shortstop class, including Dansby Swanson and, potentially, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, pending opt-outs.
Turner recently suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger, but had negative x-rays and felt healthy enough to play in the critical Game 4 of the NLDS. He will likely be healthy for Spring Training.
Lefty Tyler Anderson broke out during the 2022 season after spending his prior six seasons with four different Major League Teams. The southpaw pitched to a sparkling 2.57 ERA in 178 2/3 innings while excelling at limiting hard hits (98th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 98th percentile in HardHit%) and limiting walks (4.8%).
With Walker Buehler recently undergoing his second Tommy John surgery and Dustin May recently returning from his Tommy John surgery, in addition to Kershaw potentially leaving, the Dodgers will be on the hunt for quality starters this offseason.
Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen
After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.
Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.
In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.
Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.
However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).
The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.
For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.
Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ‘old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.
Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.
Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen‘s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.
It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.
As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).
Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5 Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.