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Jhoan Duran Trade Market Picking Up

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3:39pm: The Mariners are also making a run at Duran today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman, like Nightengale, adds that there is now an expectation that Duran will be moved at some point today.

2:16pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also writes that there’s a good chance of Duran being moved before the end of the day. Nightengale adds that the Twins have held out for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter in conversations with the Phillies. Philadelphia has been steadfast in not wanting to move Painter in prior trade discussions. It’s a big ask on Minnesota’s part, but that reflects Duran’s affordable control window. Passan had reported last week that the Twins wanted multiple top 100 caliber prospects for either Duran or Jax.

2:07pm: The likelihood of a Jhoan Duran trade seems to be rising. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested this afternoon that Minnesota’s talks with other teams on the star closer are “heating up.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears similarly and adds that the Twins could have an agreement on a Duran deal later today.

The Mariners and Yankees have been loosely tied to his market in recent days. Heyman reports that the Phillies and Red Sox are strongly involved and adds the Mets as another team that has at least shown some interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds that the Twins have had conversations with the Dodgers concerning each of Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Padres are among the teams also known to be exploring the market for high-leverage bullpen help — though none has been linked to Duran specifically.

Duran is probably the prize of the reliever market, particularly with Emmanuel Clase no longer an option. The 27-year-old righty throws harder than anyone else in baseball aside from Mason Miller. His four-seam fastball sits in the triple digits, and he averages 97.5 MPH on his absurd sinker/splitter hybrid. Duran’s upper 80s knuckle-curve is an elite pitch in its own right. He has a 2.47 earned run average in parts of four big league seasons. That includes a 2.01 mark through 49 1/3 frames this season. He’s 16-18 in save chances, has struck out more than a quarter of opponents, and is second among relievers (minimum 40 innings) with a monster 65.4% ground-ball percentage.

The Twins are going to move a handful of impending free agents, including lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. The bigger question is whether they’ll trade any of their key controllable pieces. Duran is making $4.125MM and under arbitration control through 2027. Jax, a setup man with even bigger strikeout stuff, is also controllable for two seasons. Varland is still a season away from arbitration and comes with five years of club control, so it’d be very surprising if the Twins trade him.

Minnesota is also getting calls on right-hander Brock Stewart, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The 33-year-old Stewart is playing for barely above the league minimum and has two additional seasons of arbitration control. He has punched out 30% of batters faced en route to a 2.38 ERA across 34 innings. Stewart’s age and notable injury history (elbow discomfort in 2023, arthroscopic shoulder surgery last summer) mean the Twins should be looking to sell high despite the affordable control window.

Pirates Trade Ke’Bryan Hayes To Reds

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The Reds and Pirates have come together on an intra-division swap that will send third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati, per announcements from both clubs. The Pirates are receiving veteran reliever Taylor Rogers and minor league shortstop Sammy Stafura. The Reds will reportedly take on the entirety of Hayes’ contract, which runs through the 2029 season.

Hayes, 28, is a former first-round pick and top prospect who looked to be on the cusp of stardom early in his career. He graded as an elite defensive third baseman throughout his time in the minors and hit well as he climbed the minor league ladder. Hayes made an electric debut in the shortened 2020 season, showing off that plus-plus glove while hitting .376/.442/682 in his first 95 big league plate appearances.

Hayes didn’t replicate that output in his first full big league season in 2021, but he held his own with a .257/.316/.373 batting line in 396 plate appearances despite missing significant time due to a wrist injury. He hit just six homers but played outstanding defense and swiped nine bags. The following April, Pittsburgh signed him to an eight-year, $70MM deal which, at the time, was the largest in franchise history.

Unfortunately for Hayes and the Pirates, back injuries have become a recurring problem in Hayes’ still-young career. He’s spent significant time on the injured list due to back troubles in 2022, 2023 and 2024 — totaling five IL stints due to his back in that period of three years. Hayes still managed a league-average season at the plate in 2023 (.271/.309/.453, 100 wRC+, 15 homers, 10 steals) but he’s been a well below-average hitter since. In 788 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2024, he’s mustered only a .234/.281/.290 batting line (58 wRC+).

The Pirates frontloaded Hayes’ extension, paying him $10MM in each of the contract’s first two seasons and then cutting the salary back to $7-8MM per year thereafter. He’s making $7MM in 2025, with about $2.26MM of that sum yet to be paid out. He’ll then be owed $36MM from 2026-29 ($30MM in salary plus at least a $6MM buyout on a $12MM club option for the 2030 season).

It’s a relatively hefty sum to take on, though Hayes remains such a premium defender that his glove alone is arguably worth the remaining $9MM annual value on the contract (including the 2026 buyout). Hayes has been credited with an astonishing 91 Defensive Runs Saved and 73 Outs Above Average in 4796 career innings at third base, including 16 DRS and 15 OAA in 861 innings this year already. Since Hayes debuted in 2020, he leads all of Major League Baseball (at all positions) in both DRS and OAA. Andres Gimenez’s 63 DRS and Francisco Lindor’s 68 OAA are the second-highest marks in each category.

On top of a legitimate claim to being the game’s top defensive player, Hayes does have some encouraging offensive trends. His 20.7% strikeout rate in 2025 matches his career mark and checks in lower than the league average. He also regularly posts strong batted-ball metrics. Hayes has averaged 90.7 mph off the bat in his career, and 46.3% of his batted balls have traveled 95 mph or faster. The downside, however, is that far too much of that hard contact comes in the form of ground-balls. A hefty 49.5% of Hayes’ career batted balls have been hit into the ground, and his lack of consistent elevation offsets his average power.

A move to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could prove beneficial. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park is the toughest park in MLB on right-handed power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors. Great American, meanwhile, has been the second most conducive park to right-handed home runs in that time. It’s feasible that Hayes might at least eke out a few extra home runs just from the more favorable dimensions in his new home park.

The acquisition of Hayes could push infielder Noelvi Marte into the outfield on a more permanent basis. Marte is enjoying a nice rebound year at the plate, batting .276/.329/.500 with seven home runs and six steals in 146 plate appearances. Cincinnati has been having Marte go through outfield drills and has given him eight innings of actual right field (three games) over the past couple weeks.

Rogers’ inclusion in the Hayes return is solely for financial purposes. The 34-year-old is an impending free agent earning $12MM in the final season of a three-year $33MM contract, though the Giants are paying half that salary under the terms of the offseason trade that shipped him to Cincinnati. The Pirates, in all likelihood, will turn around and try to trade Rogers before tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

So far in 2025, Rogers has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 23.3% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate in 33 innings. Rogers has a track record as a closer and setup man but hasn’t been used frequently in high-leverage spots by the Reds this year. He should draw some interest, especially if Pittsburgh is willing to pay down some of the $1.94MM he’s still owed through season’s end.

Beyond shedding the entirety of an unwanted contract, the Pirates’ return in the trade is the 20-year-old Stafura. He’s just two years removed from being the No. 43 overall pick in the draft and receiving an over-slot bonus of nearly $2.5MM. Stafura was regarded as a potential first-round pick in 2023. He’s spent the 2025 season in Class-A, hitting .262/.393/.411 (131 wRC+) with four home runs, 18 doubles, nine triples and 28 stolen bases (in 33 attempts).

Stafura possesses well above-average speed and has walked in more than 15% of his plate appearances in his professional career. His 23.9% strikeout rate is a bit high and there have been some concerns about Stafura’s hit tool. He’s played 170 of his 172 games in the field at shortstop (plus two at second base). Baseball America, in ranking Stafura ninth among Reds farmhands, noted that while Stafura has a roughly average arm, it’s quite accurate and he has the other defensive skills needed to stick at shortstop. It’s always possible Stafura will eventually slide to second or move into a utility role, but for now, the Pirates figure to keep him at shortstop.

Cincinnati has spent much of the past few weeks looking for offensive upgrades. Hayes is quite possibly an offensive downgrade, but he’ll be a massive boost to the team’s defense. The Reds, presumably, will remain in the market for a hitter who can more meaningfully upgrade their lineup.

Mark Feinsand, Mark Sheldon and Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported that Hayes had been traded to the Reds. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the return. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the Reds were taking on Hayes’ entire contract.

Dodgers Interested In Pete Fairbanks, Shane Bieber

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The Dodgers have been connected to a number of high-profile bats this summer, ranging from Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. The focus has primarily been on upgrading the club’s bullpen, however, and while the L.A. has reportedly been connected to everyone from Ryan Helsley to David Bednar, those aren’t the only bullpen arms they could pursue. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes that the club is seeking “at least one” right-handed reliever on the trade market, and adds that they’ve shown interest in Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Aside from that, it seems as though the Dodgers have at least some cursory interest in dabbling in the rotation market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that L.A. brass has spoken to Cleveland about right-hander Shane Bieber.

Fairbanks, 31, has a 20.2% strikeout rate that’s down relative to previous years but hasn’t seen his results impacted as he’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA and 2.89 FIP. His solid 47.8% ground ball rate helps to explain that to some extent, although some advanced metrics are still skeptical considering that his 3.98 SIERA this year is the worst of his career. With that being said, Fairbanks had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 2.66 ERA over a four year stretch from 2020 to 2023, and given that he’s just two years removed from those heights it would hardly be surprising if some suitors hope to unlock that elite production from him again in the future. Further helping Fairbanks’s value is that he’s controllable through the 2026 season by way of a club option valued at $7MM.

That combination of strong recent results, an impressive track record, and additional team control beyond this season has made Fairbanks a hot commodity on the trade market. The Rangers and Cubs have both been directly connected to him in recent days in addition to the Dodgers, while a number of other teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers are known to be on the prowl for bullpen help. With that said, there’s reason to wonder if the Dodgers might bow out if the market gets too hot on Fairbanks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers are not currently in the “high-end” relief market. With that being said, Rosenthal specifically mentions Twins closer Jhoan Duran and A’s closer Mason Miller. Both Duran and Miller are even more well-regarded than Fairbanks while also coming with more team control, so it’s entirely possible that Fairbanks is someone the Dodgers would still be willing to pay a relative premium given that his acquisition cost would likely still be incomparable to the likes of Duran and Miller.

Moving on to Bieber, the Guardians are known to be “trying to move” the right-hander. He’s not yet pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, but figures to be ready to pitch at some point in August. A former Cy Young award winner with a 2.91 ERA and 2.96 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, Bieber is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and could offer a huge boost to any club down the stretch and into the playoffs this year. The Cubs have been connected to Bieber already in the rumor mill, and a number of other teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays would also make sense for his services. A $16M player option ($4M buyout) for the 2026 season could complicate negotiations in theory, but it’s extremely unlikely that Bieber would exercise an option at that price point barring a significant injury given the ability of starters with his upside and track record to command far more than that even when coming off poor seasons.

The Dodgers are nonetheless a somewhat curious fit for his services given that they already have a stacked rotation that features Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell along with a bevy of viable back-end depth options. On the other hand, the club had a rash of injuries that left them struggling to field a full rotation earlier this year, and after suffering that same fate in the playoffs last season it would be understandable if the club decided to add yet another high-end arm to the mix in order to safeguard themselves ahead of a postseason where they’ll be looking to defend their World Series title. Los Angeles already has six MLB starters on the 60-day injured list, and while Snell is expected to be activated in the near future that just goes to demonstrate the fragility of modern pitchers and the importance of having excess depth.

Red Sox Interested In Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Sandy Alcantara

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The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5MM this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7MM this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17MM salary, then there’s a $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Reiner, Imagn Images

MLB Mailbag: Kwan, Bieber, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Braves

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Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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Angels Designate Jose Quijada For Assignment

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The Angels designated lefty reliever José Quijada for assignment. That’s a corresponding move for the now official acquisition of relievers Andrew Chafin and Luis García from the Nationals. Lefty Jake Eder, one of two players headed back to Washington, was already on the 40-man roster. The Angels only needed to create one opening as a result.

Quijada’s contract was just selected last week. He made two scoreless appearances, striking out three batters in an inning and a third. The 29-year-old southpaw had been designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training. He cleared outright waivers and has spent the majority of the season at Double-A Rocket City. Quijada turned in a 2.73 earned run average through 26 1/3 innings while striking out 37.1% of batters faced at that level. That earned him another brief stint in the big league bullpen, but he’s been pushed off by today’s pair of veterans.

The Angels can technically try to trade Quijada until tomorrow evening. The likelier outcome is that he’ll just go back on outright waivers. He’s playing on a $1.075MM arbitration salary that checks in a little above the MLB minimum. Quijada would need to forfeit that salary to elect free agency, so he’d likely accept another minor league assignment if he clears waivers.

Angels Acquire Andrew Chafin, Luis García

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The Angels have acquired left-hander Andrew Chafin and right-hander Luis García from the Nationals, per announcements from both clubs. The Nats receive left-hander Jake Eder and minor league first baseman Sam Brown in return. The Halos designated left-hander José Quijada for assignment to open a 40-man spot. Eder was on the 40-man, so his departure opened another.

Chafin, 35, started the year with the Tigers on a minor league deal. He opted out of that deal and signed a major league pact with the Nats at the start of May. He was been with the Nats since then, apart from a brief IL stint for a hamstring strain. He has thrown 20 big league innings this year, allowing 2.70 earned runs per nine, though with less impressive metrics under the hood. His 42.1% ground ball rate is around league average but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate are both subpar.

His longer track record is more impressive. He has 528 1/3 big league innings with a 3.39 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate. As recently as last year with the Tigers and Rangers, he was able to post a 3.51 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate, though also a high walk rate of 12.6%.

García, 38, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in the offseason. He made that club’s Opening Day roster but was released in early July and landed with the Nats. Between the two clubs, he has a 4.10 ERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and 54.6% ground ball rate.

Like Chafin, he has a long major league track record. García has thrown 565 1/3 innings in his career with a 4.14 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 54.5% ground ball rate. He’s been with the Angels before, having pitched for them in 2019 and the first half of 2024.

Neither pitcher is likely to be a huge difference maker. Both of them were available as free agents during the season. Still, it perhaps suggests the Angels are at least doing a soft buy. The Halos are four games out of a playoff spot, which is a tough spot to be in terms of making a buy/sell decision. But the club generally prefers to go for it when they are close and they haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. Franchise icon Mike Trout is about to turn 34 years old and increasingly injury prone. He’s hitting well this year but mostly limited to designated hitter duties.

It’s somewhat understandable that the club may want to do right by Trout and make an effort to get him back to the postseason for the first time in over a decade. The odds are against them, however. FanGraphs currently gives them just a 5.3% chance of making it in. Baseball Prospectus is even more pessimistic, putting the Halos at 2.4%.

Adding Chafin and García won’t increase those odds very much but the club does have a poor bullpen. Overall, the club’s relievers have a 4.96 ERA, which is better than just three other major league clubs.

It’s also theoretically possible that the Angels are going to flip other players, such as Kenley Jansen or Reid Detmers, with Chafin and García having been brought in to backfill the bullpen with veteran arms. Though the most straightforward read on the Angels right now is that they are looking to make some buy-side moves without really harming themselves in the long run.

Neither Eder nor Brown is a massive price to pay. Eder was once a notable prospect but his stock has fallen in recent years. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2021 and hasn’t really been able to get on track since then. He has 20 1/3 big league innings with a 4.87 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. He has a 6.41 ERA in 229 minor league innings since the start of 2023. The Angels got him in a cash deal earlier this year after he had been designated for assignment by the White Sox.

Brown was a 12th-round pick in 2023, who is about to turn 24 years old. In 92 Double-A games this year, he has a .244/.350/.358 batting line and 117 wRC+. He’s not listed among the club’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.

It’s a perfectly sensible move for the Nats. Chafin and García were midseason pickups who are impending free agents. It makes sense to cash them in for whatever they can get. There’s no harm in taking fliers on Eder and Brown to see what happens.

For the Angels, they are apparently attempting to bolster the club. Perhaps more moves will follow before tomorrow’s deadline. For now, they haven’t given up anything of significance. In a sense, that won’t really hurt them if they fall short of the playoffs again. On the other hand, they could be passing up an opportunity to add talent to the system.

In the past, they turned down opportunities to sell notable players. Shohei Ohtani was the most notable example. Instead of trading him for a prospect haul in 2023, they held and also added players. They flipped Edgar Quero and Ky Bush for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. The club then faded and put Giolito and López on waivers in August. This move doesn’t rise to that level but it’s possible the Angels are yet again betting on a team that’s not quite good enough. They have reportedly drawn trade interest in Taylor Ward and Jo Adell. They could have shopped Jansen, Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Yoán Moncada and others. It seems unlikely that they are taking that path. Time will tell what their full deadline approach is.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that García was going to the Angels and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first had Chafin. Passan added that Eder was one of the players going to the Nats in return. Rosenthal then added Brown’s inclusion.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Guardians Reportedly Shopping Steven Kwan, Shane Bieber

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The Guardians seem to be getting closer to selling significant pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Cleveland is “trying to move” both left fielder Steven Kwan and starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Both players have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors over the past few days, though Kwan has generally been seen as more of a long shot candidate.

If the Guardians are truly motivated to deal Kwan, they’d have no issue doing so. He’s one of their most valuable trade chips and would bring back a huge return. Kwan is playing on a $4.175MM salary and is under arbitration control for another two seasons. The two-time All-Star is hitting .286/.351/.410 with nine homers and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. He’s one of four hitters with at least 300 plate appearances who has walked more often than he has struck out.

Kwan is a career .285/.358/.398 hitter. He’s also probably the game’s best defensive left fielder. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average gives him an uncharacteristically average grade this season, Defensive Runs Saved (+13) still views him as the gold standard at the position. The well-rounded skillset makes Kwan an ideal leadoff hitter. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies have previously been linked to him. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Reds to the list of interested teams. Speculatively speaking, the Astros could also use a left fielder and are known to be targeting left-handed bats.

While the Guardians will sort through plenty of offers on Kwan, Bieber is a more challenging trade candidate. That’s not an indictment on him as a player but a reflection of his contract structure. The former Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last April. That was his walk year, and he re-signed with Cleveland on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber is playing on a $10MM salary and has to decide between a $16MM player option or a $4MM buyout at year’s end.

An acquiring team would take on a little more than $3.2MM in salary the rest of the way. That’s plenty manageable, but the buyout would push that above $7.2MM. That’s what a team would owe for two months if Bieber were playing on a $22MM salary as opposed to a $10MM sum. That also doesn’t account for the risk that he suffers an injury setback or simply doesn’t pitch well and decides to stick with next year’s $16MM salary — which he’d only do if he feels he couldn’t beat that on the free agent market.

Bieber has not made a major league start this season. He’s closing in on his season debut after making his fourth minor league rehab appearance last night. He reached four innings and 58 pitches with Double-A Akron. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that other teams would have a heavy scouting presence in attendance. While those scouts’ opinions on Bieber’s stuff will hold far more weight than the results against Double-A hitters, the veteran righty had an impressive outing — one run on three hits and a hit batter with seven strikeouts.

While the Guardians could hold firm to a huge ask on Kwan, they should be more motivated to deal Bieber if they’re committed to selling. They have to expect him to opt out if he looks like his pre-surgery self — even more as the #3 type starter he was in 2023 as opposed to a return to the top of a rotation. Cleveland is a manageable 3.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, but they have three teams to jump and saw the path get a lot steeper when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation.

White Sox Scratch Adrian Houser From Scheduled Start

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The White Sox created some buzz around one of their top trade chips today when they scratched right-hander Adrian Houser from his scheduled start against the Phillies later today. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that, while Houser has not been traded at this point, he’s being held out of his start “in anticipation” of him being moved at some point before the trade deadline tomorrow.

It’s hardly a shock that the White Sox expect Houser to be traded. While they aren’t quite on the record-breaking pace they set last year with a 121-loss campaign, they’ve been obvious sellers with no hope at a postseason berth all year long. Houser, meanwhile, is a veteran rental who has pitched to a 2.10 ERA with a 3.30 FIP in 68 2/3 innings of work across 11 starts since he signed with Chicago on a big league deal back in May. Houser signed with the Rangers on a minor league deal during the offseason but did not make the club’s roster out of camp.

That meager interest in Houser’s services during the offseason was a result of a rough season with the Mets last year. After pitching to a 4.00 ERA and 4.19 FIP in parts of seven seasons with the Brewers as a back-of-the-rotation starter and long reliever, Houser joined the Mets but was shelled to the tune of a 5.84 ERA and 4.93 FIP across 23 appearances (seven starts). Houser’s 19.0% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate with Milwaukee were hardly exciting, but that steadiness collapsed in New York as he was suddenly punching out just 14.6% of his opponents while issuing free passes at a 10.4% clip. Now that he’s performing in Chicago, however, that recent history of struggles in New York can likely be dismissed by interested clubs given Houser’s long track record of steadiness.

With that being said, it’s unlikely that interested clubs view Houser as the sort of impact addition his raw numbers would suggest. His 17.1% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate with Chicago are both big improvements over last year, but his K-BB% is still bottom 20 in the majors among starters with at least 60 innings of work this year. Houser’s 4.51 SIERA is also fairly unimpressive, characterizing him more as the back-of-the-rotation arm he was with the Brewers; Chris Paddack (4.49), Colin Rea (4.47), and Luis Severino (4.57) are among the other starters in a similar range.

Even if no club sees Houser as likely to maintain his current numbers, there’s plenty of value in adding an innings-eating back-end starter who has experience pitching out of the bullpen at this stage of the calendar. Many clubs like the Cubs, Yankees, and Blue Jays are known to be on the hunt for starting pitching options, and Houser figures to be a substantial more affordable option than a top rental name like Merrill Kelly or Zac Gallen, to say nothing of the controllable arms rumored to be available. That could make Houser a particularly attractive addition for a team that either is looking to mostly make marginal additions without surrendering high level prospects or has already depleted their farm system in a trade for a more significant asset.

Braves Designate Enyel De Los Santos For Assignment

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The Braves announced this afternoon that they’ve designated right-hander Enyel De Los Santos for assignment. His departure opens up a 40-man roster spot for right-hander Tyler Kinley, who they acquired from the Rockies in a deal earlier today.

De Los Santos, 29, signed with Atlanta on a minor league deal over the winter. He made the club’s roster out of camp in Spring Training and since then has served as a decent but unspectacular middle reliever. In 43 appearances, he’s posted a below-average 4.53 ERA (92 ERA+) but has offered some solid peripherals, including a 3.32 FIP. His 20.1% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate are both fairly pedestrian, however, and while a 60.5% strand rate suggests some poor sequencing luck his 4.15 SIERA suggests he’s little been more than average overall this year.

Joining the Braves marked De Los Santos’s seventh season in the big leagues and seventh team for whom he’s played at the big league level. The right-hander debuted with the Phillies all the way back in 2018 but got his first substantial look at the big league level in 2021 when he made 33 appearances for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. He posted an ugly 6.37 ERA in 35 1/3 innings back then but since then has generally looked decent in stints with the Guardians, Padres, Yankees, and White Sox in addition to the Braves. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, De Los Santos has posted a 4.01 ERA with a 3.95 FIP and a 24.0% strikeout rate. That’s on top of solid career numbers at the Triple-A level, where he’s posted a 3.37 ERA in parts of four seasons with the Phillies and Guardians.

Going forward, Atlanta will have until tomorrow’s trade deadline to try and work out a trade involving De Los Santos. Should that not come to pass, he’ll be placed on outright waivers where he can be claimed by any club. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, De Los Santos will have the opportunity to either accept an outright assignment from the Braves and serve as non-roster depth in the minor leagues for the remainder of the year, or reject the assignment in favor of free agency, at which point he would be free to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs.

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