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Athletics’ Ken Waldichuk Rehabbing From Flexor Strain, UCL Sprain

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 12:15pm CDT

The Athletics announced Friday that left-hander Ken Waldichuk has quietly been going through a non-surgical rehab process after being diagnosed with a strained left flexor tendon and sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. Waldichuk experienced discomfort in his final appearance of the 2023 season, according to the team.

“Waldichuk opted for conservative treatment of this injury, leading to a Tenex procedure with Dr. Steve Yoon on Oct. 17 and a follow-up [platelet-rich plasma] injection to the flexor tendon on Oct. 24,” the team announced in a statement. “Waldichuk is currently in physical therapy; his timeline for returning to throwing remains TBD.”

The Tenex procedure which Waldichuk underwent is rare but not unheard of among pitchers. Veteran right-hander Collin McHugh had the same treatment in the 2019-20 offseason. He wound up not pitching that year, opting out of the pandemic-shortened campaign and citing that he hadn’t recovered from his offseason procedure as well as hoped. Of course, every injury situation is different, and the fact that McHugh didn’t return in 2020 is hardly an indication that Waldichuk will face similar problems. Furthermore, McHugh returned to the mound in 2021 without undergoing further treatment and has been healthy since. Over the past three seasons, he’s compiled 192 innings with a strong 2.77 earned run average.

Waldichuk, 25, came to the A’s from the Yankees prior to the 2022 trade deadline as part of the return package for right-handers Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino. The hope was that he’d provide Oakland with a largely MLB-ready starting pitcher to help replenish a staff that had been thinned out by injuries and trades during the team’s latest rebuild. Waldichuk has struggled throughout his time in Oakland, however.

A 2019 fifth-round pick, Waldichuk made his MLB debut with the A’s in 2022, starting seven games down the stretch and turning in a pedestrian 4.93 ERA — albeit with solid strikeout and walk rates of 22.6% and 6.8%. The 2023 season was another story entirely, as Waldichuk’s struggles eventually led the team to move him to the bullpen. The southpaw returned to the rotation around the All-Star break and pitched decently down as a starter in the second half, logging a 4.04 ERA with a 21.8% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. His overall 2023 numbers were still unsightly (5.36 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, 1.53 HR/9), but Waldichuk ended the season on a relatively high note and looked to have turned a corner.

The revelation of a notable arm injury throws a wrench into his near-term outlook, however. Waldichuk had been one of the leading candidates to pitch out of the Athletics’ rotation next year, joining Paul Blackburn, JP Sears and prospect Mason Miller in that regard. Other candidates include Luis Medina, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok, Joey Estes and Osvaldo Bido, though the Oakland rotation mix on the whole is generally comprised of unproven arms. Sears and Blackburm are the only two who’ve had even a full season of average or better results, and Blackburn could be traded this offseason given that he only has two years of club control remaining.

Waldichuk’s injury is a blow to the group and to his broader development as a big league starter, though even if he winds up missing significant time he could still be a part of the Athletics’ long-term plans. The lefty has one-plus year of Major League service time, so he can be controlled another five years. He also still has all three minor league option years intact, although since the injury occurred while pitching in a big league game, he’d very likely be placed on the MLB injured list to begin the year (if an IL placement proves necessary), during which he’d earn service time as well.

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Athletics Ken Waldichuk

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Twins Re-Sign Jovani Moran, Ronny Henriquez To Minor League Deals

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 10:27am CDT

The Twins have re-signed relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez to minor league contracts, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Both were non-tendered a few weeks ago. The left-handed Moran is expected to miss the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery following the ’23 campaign. Henriquez, acquired from the Rangers as part of 2022’s Mitch Garver trade, battled elbow trouble and struggled in 37 Triple-A appearances this past season.

Both pitchers were non-tendered despite being several years from arbitration eligibility. However, the non-tender deadline gives teams the unique opportunity to immediately remove a player from the 40-man roster without needing to pass him through waivers, so the Twins used that chance to clear up some space while retaining hope for this type of minor league re-signing.

Moran, 26, has been a heavily used option for manager Rocco Baldelli over the past two seasons, at times looking like a potential setup man — he logged a 2.21 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in 40 1/3 innings in 2022 — but also battling inconsistencies stemming from his below-average command. He picked up nine holds for the Twins this past season but struggled to a 5.31 ERA with a diminished 26.1% strikeout rate and an alarming 14.7% walk rate.

Moran looked to have righted the ship, to an extent, after a shaky start to the year before a brutal stretch in July that saw him yield nine runs on seven hits and seven walks in what proved to be his final seven innings of the season. He was placed on the injured list with an always-ominous forearm strain, ultimately going under the knife a couple months later. He’ll miss the 2024 season and look to get back into the mix for a roster spot in 2025.

The 23-year-old Henriquez made his big league debut with the Twins in 2022 and impressed with 11 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. He fanned 18% of his opponents against a 6% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a healthy 52.8% clip while averaging 93.2 mph on his heater. He ranked 19th among Twins prospects at FanGraphs and 23rd at Baseball America before this past season’s elbow troubles derailed his year. Henriquez had multiple IL stints due to elbow inflammation and ultimately pitched to an unsightly 5.64 ERA in 57 Triple-A frames. He’ll likely open the season back in Triple-A St. Paul as a depth option.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Jovani Moran Ronny Henriquez

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Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 10:00am CDT

Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Anthony Volpe Clarke Schmidt Drew Thorpe Jasson Dominguez Juan Soto Jung Hoo Lee Michael King Yuki Matsui

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Marlins To Hire Gabe Kapler As Assistant General Manager

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 9:27am CDT

The Marlins have reached an agreement to hire former Phillies and Giants manager Gabe Kapler as an assistant general manager under new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald. San Francisco dismissed Kapler following the 2023 season, hiring future Hall of Famer Bob Melvin in his place. Mish adds that Kapler has been looking for a new challenge in baseball operations since being let go by the Giants and was also in the running to become the Red Sox’ head of baseball operations before they ultimately hired another former big leaguer, Craig Breslow.

This won’t be the first foray into baseball operations for Kapler, who served as the Dodgers’ farm director prior to being named manager of the Phillies. He’s spent the past six seasons as a manager, compiling a 456-411 record between San Francisco (2020-23) and Philadelphia (2018-19) and won NL Manager of the Year honors in 2021. He’ll now return to the other side of the game, with a primary focus on player development within the Marlins’ system, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Marlins don’t have a general manager, with the aforementioned Bendix holding the title of president and heading up baseball ops. But Kapler will join Oz Ocampo, Brian Chattin and Daniel Greenlee as the team’s fourth executive to hold the title of assistant GM.

It’s not the only recent baseball ops hire made by Bendix, who replaced GM Kim Ng after she declined her end of a 2024 mutual option (reportedly because ownership wanted to hire a president of baseball ops to overtake her on the front office hierarchy). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this week that Miami hired now-former Rangers assistant director of baseball operations Vinesh Kanthan as their new director of baseball operations.

Changes in the Miami front office figure to continue over the next year, as it’s common for newly hired baseball operations executives to bring in their own team — at times at the expense of holdovers within the department. Bendix and his staff will look to build on the success of the 2023 club, which reached the playoffs for the first time (in 162-game season) since the organization’s 2003 World Series-winning season.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Gabe Kapler Vinesh Kanthan

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Guardians Open To Offers On Emmanuel Clase

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 9:18am CDT

The Guardians are open to offers on All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase and willing to trade him for the right offer, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Even if the club is merely performing its due diligence, it’s a fairly surprising development, given the overwhelmingly club-friendly contract to which the 25-year-old (26 in March) righty is signed.

Early in the 2022 season, Cleveland inked Clase to a five-year, $20MM contract extension that included affordable $10MM club options for the 2027-28 seasons (each with a $2MM buyout). He’s entering the third season of that deal, slated to earn $2.5MM this coming season, $4.5MM the following year and $6MM in 2026.

It’s worth pointing out that Clase is well on his way to boosting the value of both those club options. The contract allows him to increase the value of each by another $3MM based on appearances, innings pitched and awards in the first five years of the deal. Clase has already secured a $500K bump for both options by winning the Mariano Rivera Reliever of the Year Award in 2022. He’ll earn $500K bumps on both options for reaching 200 innings or games pitched (he’s at 145 innings and 152 games presently) and see another $500K tacked onto each option upon reaching 250 innings or games pitched. If he reaches 300 innings or games pitched over the life of the deal, he’ll boost the value of each option by another $1MM. In all, the options can top out at a still-very-reasonable $13MM apiece, and Clase would take home another $1MM assignment bonus if traded.

Even if Clase maxes out all of those remaining escalators, he can be controlled for up to five more seasons at a maximum of $40MM. That’s a bargain rate for a flamethrowing righty who has been one of the top relievers in the American League throughout much of his tenure in Cleveland.

That said, there are some red flags that merit mention. Clase hasn’t lost much life on his signature cutter, which still averaged better than 99 mph in 2023, but he posted a career-low 21.2% swinging-strike rate and saw his walk rate (5.3%), ground-ball rate (55%), swinging-strike rate (13.3%), opponents’ chase rate (35.1%), average exit velocity (88.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.6%) all trend in the wrong direction over his 2022 levels. Granted, most of those numbers are still excellent, but Clase’s 3.22 ERA doesn’t look nearly as dominant as the combined 1.33 he posted in 2021-22 — and he blew more saves (12) in 2023 than he did in his entire career prior to this season (9).

While it’s never good to see any pitcher begin to trend in the wrong direction, the 2023 version of Clase was still excellent — and the price tag on his contract is still well shy of what he’d earn if he were on the open market at present. Bullpen help is always in demand, but trading a reliever of this caliber with five years of affordable contractual control remaining is virtually unprecedented.

The Phillies traded five years of Ken Giles to the Astros back in 2015, though Giles was a pre-arbitration player with 115 career innings under his belt to that point; Clase is more established. The Mariners traded four years of Edwin Diaz to the Mets but did so largely as a means of shedding the remainder of Robinson Cano’s contract. Both trade packages netted former top-six overall draft picks (Mark Appel, Jarred Kelenic) in addition, plus at least one other top prospect/young big leaguer of note (Vince Velasquez, Justin Dunn) and other near-MLB pitchers. None of those names from those trade returns have gone onto MLB stardom, but at the time of those swaps they were highly touted young talents. Clase could arguably command an even larger haul, potentially netting the Guardians multiple top-100 prospects and/or young MLB-ready players.

It should of course be emphasized that Clase is far from a sure thing to move. Because of the massive amount of remaining control on his contract and his eminently affordable salary — even for a low-payroll club like the Guardians — the Cleveland front office might simply opt to hold onto him. The Guards project for a $94MM payroll in 2024, per Roster Resource, which is only a $5MM jump from last year’s Opening Day mark and about $40MM shy of their franchise-record mark of $134MM.

There’s no financial urgency to deal Clase, especially since that $94MM mark figures to drop if Cleveland ultimately moves Shane Bieber — a far likelier trade candidate given his projected $12.2MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and his status as a free agent at the end of the 2024 campaign. Cleveland has previously traded Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger all before those players reached the open market, and if they continue that pattern, Bieber will be on the move between now and Opening Day. The Cubs and Reds are among the teams with interest, although the 2020 AL Cy Young winner has surely commanded a broader array of inquiries than just those two teams.

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Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Emmanuel Clase

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The Opener: Winter Meetings, Rangers, Free Agent Prediction Contest

By Nick Deeds | December 1, 2023 at 8:18am CDT

As baseball’s busiest time of the offseason approaches, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Winter Meetings on the horizon:

The main attraction of MLB’s offseason, the Winter Meetings, are set to begin this weekend. From the time executives, agents, players and owners arrive in Nashville on Sunday until they depart this coming Thursday, a flurry of activity is expected to get underway to truly kick off what has to this point been a relatively quiet offseason. Of course, the name poised to receive the most attention over the next week is two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but other top free agents like Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as trade candidates like Juan Soto and Dylan Cease also figure to be hot-button topics of conversation. Be sure to check back with MLBTR throughout the coming week as we provide round-the-clock coverage of the Meetings from the moment they begin.

2. How will the Rangers’ payroll restrictions shape the offseason?

In recent years, the Rangers have been perhaps the most active team on the free agent market, landing superstars Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom across the past two winters while also making smaller signings such as Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi. With the team coming off its first World Series championship in organizational history, many expected the club to once again be at the forefront of the winter. That may not prove to be the case, however, as GM Chris Young downplayed the club’s financial capabilities this offseason, indicating the club may focus on more complementary additions while sticking with the core they currently have in place.

Those comments put into question not only the club’s ability to pursue Ohtani, but also their ability to land other top pieces they’ve been connected to such as Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Texas committed around $500MM in free agent dollars during the 2021-22 offseason before following up with an additional sum north of $200MM the following offseason. A splashy move for a player such as Hader could still come in well below those numbers, even when paired with additional complementary moves. Still, with the Rangers seemingly poised to sit out the very top of the market for the first time in years, it could create an opportunity for other clubs to establish themselves as contenders for the league’s marquee talents.

3. MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard goes live:

In case you missed it yesterday, the leaderboard for our annual free agent prediction contest is now live! You can find the link to the leaderboard here. With just seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents currently signed, Tom Diesman currently leads the pack with an impressive five correct picks. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern leads the staff with three correct picks.

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The Opener

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Chris Young Discusses Rangers’ Spending Outlook

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 11:47pm CDT

The Rangers have made plenty of headlines in each of the past two offseasons. After signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray during the 2021-22 winter, they added Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney a year ago.

It doesn’t appear Texas is planning to be so aggressive this time around. A few weeks removed from the franchise’s first World Series, general manager Chris Young hinted at a quieter offseason than the previous two.

“We expect to be active in free agency, but probably not spending at the level that we have spent in previous offseasons,” Young told reporters on Thursday afternoon (relayed by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The GM noted there’s “a great returning core group” and said the front office is “really looking for additions to kind of shore up the team.”

That’s a generally fair assessment of the roster. Texas is returning the vast majority of an elite batting order. Seager, Semien, Adolis García, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Leody Taveras and Evan Carter will be back. Designated hitter/backup catcher Mitch Garver hit free agency after the Rangers opted against issuing a qualifying offer. He’s the biggest potential departure on the offensive side. Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski also hit the market after solid performances as depth outfielders.

Texas faces a few more impactful losses on the pitching side. Deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery is one of the top free agent starters. Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton could depart the relief corps, while Martín Pérez played a swing role.

Garver and Montgomery are the most notable losses. Texas doesn’t has a perfect in-house replacement at designated hitter, although the likes of Ezequiel Durán and prospect Justin Foscue could take on larger roles. Wyatt Langford, selected out of Florida with the fourth overall pick last summer, briefly reached Triple-A at the end of his draft year. It’d be a surprise if he’s in the majors on Opening Day. He could hit his way to the big leagues at some point during the summer.

Of course, the headline-grabbing play at designated hitter would be a massive strike for Shohei Ohtani. Texas is reportedly in the mix for the defending AL MVP. Signing Ohtani would quite likely require the largest contract in MLB history. Young’s comments downplay that as a possibility, although perhaps ownership and the front office would pivot if there’s a realistic chance to land the sport’s best player.

Texas has also expressed interest in retaining Montgomery. That’d be a bit of a luxury strike. Effective as the southpaw was down the stretch, the Rangers could open next season with Max Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning as a strong rotation. deGrom could join the group in the second half as he rehabs from June’s Tommy John procedure.

Young made clear the Rangers aren’t planning to sit out free agency entirely. Yet adding a depth starter rather than meeting a nine-figure price for Montgomery could be more likely. Texas figures to bring in multiple relievers and will probably add to what presently projects as an inexperienced bench.

While the strength of the existing roster is one factor in projecting a relatively quiet offseason, it also seems the front office is working with more limited spending room than they’ve had in previous winters. Roster Resource projects the Rangers’ 2024 payroll around $203MM. That includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players but does not account for any additions they’ll make. That’s already above the approximate $196MM payroll which the team carried into this past season, which was itself a franchise high.

To be clear, Young didn’t forecast any kind of payroll cut. It seems all but assured they’ll go into 2024 at a franchise-record spending level. The championship run brought in extra revenue in the form of playoff gate receipts. Ownership and the front office are surely motivated to push for a repeat. The midseason acquisition of Scherzer (whom Texas will pay $12.5MM next season as part of the trade from the Mets) paired with arbitration raises for the likes of Lowe, García and Dunning organically raise the payroll in comparison to this year’s Opening Day mark.

The Rangers are also one of the teams facing short-term uncertainty about their local television rights. The organization’s deal with Diamond Sports Group for in-market broadcasting on the Bally Sports network is in jeopardy. The Athletic recently reported that Diamond was considering dropping its deals with the Rangers and Guardians before next season amidst its ongoing bankruptcy. Young pointed to the uncertainty about the rights fees, noting that the front office has “a responsibility to be financially prudent.”

That all hints at a less flashy offseason than Texas has had in the last two years. Grant suggests the team could try to stay below the luxury tax threshold during the offseason. While there’s not a clear mandate to avoid paying the tax, it seems ownership prefers to leave some flexibility for midseason acquisitions. A team’s CBT number isn’t finalized until the end of the year, so in-season pickups count against that figure.

Roster Resource pegs the Rangers’ 2024 tax projection (which is calculated using contracts’ average annual salaries and includes player benefits) around $219MM. That checks in $18MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. If the organization truly prefers to stay under that during the winter, they’d be limited to complementary additions. Back-end starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have signed for $11MM and $13MM, respectively, for reference.

The Rangers exceeded the tax threshold in 2023. If they surpass it next season, they’d be taxed at a heightened 30% rate as repeat payors on any spending between $237MM and $257MM (with heightened penalties if they surpass the $257MM mark).

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Newsstand Texas Rangers Shohei Ohtani

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Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 10:29pm CDT

At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Aroldis Chapman Craig Kimbrel Jordan Hicks Josh Hader

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Pirates Release Thomas Hatch To Pursue Overseas Opportunity

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 9:35pm CDT

The Pirates have released right-hander Thomas Hatch, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. A Korean-language report from IS Plus suggested Hatch had received interest from teams in both NPB and the KBO and is likely to sign with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. Hatch had occupied a spot on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. His release will drop that tally to 36.

Pittsburgh snagged Hatch off waivers from the Blue Jays in early August. The 29-year-old occupied a depth role down the stretch, logging 22 2/3 innings over 12 appearances. He posted a 4.03 ERA despite a modest 17% strikeout rate. Paired with six MLB appearances for the Jays earlier in the season, Hatch tossed 28 2/3 innings of 4.26 ERA ball — his largest big league workload to date.

Originally a third-round pick of the Cubs in 2016, Hatch landed with the Jays at the ’19 deadline in a trade that sent veteran reliever David Phelps to Chicago. The Oklahoma State product debuted in the majors the following year and saw some big league action in each of the past four seasons. He has allowed 4.96 earned runs per nine in 69 career innings.

Hatch would have been out of minor league option years going into 2024. He’d likely have had a tenuous hold on a bullpen spot in Pittsburgh and could well have found himself on outright waivers at some point over the offseason. Instead, he should lock in a guaranteed salary — quite likely one north of the $740K MLB minimum — and could position himself for other major league opportunities in future offseasons. Hatch throws in the mid 90s and owns a reasonable 4.49 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns, making him an attractive target for evaluators in Japan and Korea.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Thomas Hatch

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Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

By Tim Dierkes | November 30, 2023 at 8:51pm CDT

6,135 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest!  The contest leaderboard is now available.  Tom Diesman is currently in the lead with an impressive five correct picks for the seven top 50 free agents who have signed so far.  Tom’s lofty .714 contest batting average surely won’t last, but he’s off to a blazing start having nailed the destinations of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, and Nick Martinez.  Last year, Steve Sacks won the contest with a .295 average (13 of 44).

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was originally published on November 6th.  You can check that out here.

 

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