The Opener: Imanaga, White Sox, Blue Jays
Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on throughout baseball today…
1. Two weeks left for Imanaga:
Left-hander Shota Imanaga‘s posting window is open until January 11, meaning there’s now just two weeks left for him to arrange a deal with an MLB club. If no deal is reached by then, he will return to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball, but all indications point to his market being robust. He has a 3.18 earned run average in his eight NPB seasons and is coming off a 2023 season that saw him finish with a 2.80 ERA and 29.2% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted he could secure a five-year, $85MM deal but there have been reports of his market pushing to the $100MM range. The signing team would owe the BayStars a posting fee on top of the money they guarantee to Imanaga.
2. White Sox need roster spot for Maldy:
The White Sox agreed to a deal with catcher Martín Maldonado earlier this week. They currently have a full 40-man roster and will need to make some kind of move in order to open a spot before making the Maldy signing official. Perhaps the club will look to make some kind of trade in the coming days or simply designate someone for assignment.
3. What’s next for the Jays?
The Blue Jays have been connected to a lot of big names this winter, including Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Once those players landed elsewhere, the Jays pivoted to smaller moves, recently agreeing to terms with Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. There’s still time for a bigger splash, with players like Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman available in free agency. The Kiner-Falefa deal could also be a precursor to a trade, as he now joins a crowded group of depth or part-time players on the roster. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lined up at shortstop and first base respectively, candidates for the third base and second base positions include Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Otto López, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.
Reds, Brett Kennedy Agree To Minor League Deal
Right-hander Brett Kennedy has returned to the Reds on a minor league contract, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. He had elected free agency within a few days of the end of the regular season.
Kennedy, 29, made five big league appearances for Cincinnati last season. He started two of those games, tossing 18 innings of 13-run ball. It was the Fordham product’s first MLB work in five years. His only previous major league experience consisted of six starts for the 2018 Padres.
A former 11th round draftee, Kennedy first signed with the Reds out of independent ball last May. He spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A Louisville. Working out of the rotation, he pitched to a 4.81 ERA through 78 2/3 innings. Kennedy’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 9% walk percentage were each slightly worse than average.
It’d be a surprise if Kennedy is in the mix for an Opening Day roster spot. He showed enough that the organization decided to keep him around as rotation or long relief depth, however. He’ll likely begin the year in Louisville. If the Reds select Kennedy onto the 40-man roster at any point, he can still be optioned to Triple-A for another two seasons.
Twins Sign Josh Staumont
8:51pm: Jon Becker of Roster Resource reports (on X) that Staumont is guaranteed $950K. The deal also contains undisclosed incentives, per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (X link).
12:04pm: The Twins announced that right-hander Josh Staumont has been signed to a one-year deal, and the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (X link) reports that Staumont will earn slightly less than $1MM. Staumont was projected to earn a $1.7MM arbitration salary this winter, but the Royals designated him for assignment in November and he elected free agency rather than an accept an outright assignment. Staumont is represented by Excel Sports Management.
The righty dominated Twins hitters to the tune of an 0.90 ERA over 20 career innings against Minnesota, so the Twins have seen plenty of Staumont over his five seasons in Kansas City. The results were pretty good overall for Staumont in his first three seasons, as he posted a 2.93 ERA and 26.7% strikeout over 110 2/3 relief innings from 2019-21. However, a 4.07 SIERA, .268 BABIP, and an 11.4% walk rate in that same stretch hinted that some regression was coming, and Staumont’s luck turned over the last two seasons.
Staumont has a 6.09 ERA over 57 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2023, with an ungainly 15.9% walk rate contributing to his issues. Injuries played a role in both tough seasons, yet Staumont’s chief concern is now getting healthy after a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last July. The exact nature of Staumont’s TOS procedure isn’t known, and given how the treatment is still relatively new, there isn’t yet a lengthy track record of pitchers who returned from TOS surgeries to pitch effectively at the big league level.
Minnesota obviously felt good enough about Staumont’s recovery to give him a big league contract, and it could be a long-term play since Staumont is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season. If Staumont is able to recover and get back to his early-career form, he could be a very nice low-cost add for the Twins bullpen (and from an AL Central rival, no less). The deal is also a nice late birthday present for Staumont, who just turned 30 last week.
The Twins haven’t done much beyond a few minor league signings this offseason, as the club may still be figuring how to balance both payroll cuts and a sturdy defense of its AL Central title. A low-cost and low-risk signing like Staumont may not be a huge factor in Minnesota’s spending plans since adding inexpensive and potentially high-upside relief pitching is standard business for any team, yet naturally these are the types of deals that can pay particularly big dividends for lower-payroll teams.
This Date In Transaction History: Blake Snell Trade
Today marks three years since the blockbuster that sent a former (and future) Cy Young winner across leagues. The Rays dealt Blake Snell to the Padres in the late evening of December 27, 2020, bringing back a four-player prospect package. Luis Patiño headlined the return, which also included Blake Hunt, former top prospect Francisco Mejía and 2020 third-round draftee Cole Wilcox.
The deal came as something of a surprise, as the Rays weren’t under huge financial pressure to move Snell. Despite the controversy surrounding Kevin Cash’s decision to lift Snell in Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic, Tampa Bay could’ve held the southpaw into the following season. Snell was under contract for respective salaries of $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM covering the 2021-23 campaigns.
Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay front office felt the prospect return was too strong to pass up. Patiño was viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects despite struggling in a brief MLB debut that season. Hunt was a borderline Top 100 minor leaguer at the time. Mejía’s stock had fallen from its peak as he struggled against big league pitching, but he was only entering his age-25 season and had less than three years of MLB service. Wilcox was viewed by many evaluators as a first-round talent that year, only dropping to the third because of a lofty bonus demand.
The deal didn’t pan out at all as the Rays had envisioned. While Snell has had a volatile career, he recaptured the ace-caliber upside he’d shown in Tampa Bay. After turning in a 4.20 ERA over 27 starts during his first year with the Friars, he rebounded to post a 3.38 mark in 2022. The cumulative 3.79 ERA he managed across 256 2/3 innings was solid, although it didn’t hint at the Cy Young level he’d reach in 2023.
Snell didn’t start the ’23 campaign well. He owned a 5.48 ERA with a strikeout rate just under 24% through the first month. After a slight uptick in strikeouts and a 3.82 mark in May, Snell kicked off a four-month stretch as the most dominant pitcher on the planet. From June 1 on, he struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed 1.23 earned runs per nine. His 1.54 ERA after the All-Star Break is the 12th-lowest second half rate since 2000 (minimum 75 innings).
The dominating finish led Snell to cruise to a second career Cy Young. He was a near-unanimous choice as the NL’s top pitcher after posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA through 180 innings. Snell hit free agency and seems unlikely to return to a San Diego organization that has cut spending. Assuming he signs elsewhere in the coming weeks, he concludes his time as a Padre with a 3.15 ERA while striking out 31.5% of opponents in 436 2/3 frames.
As a team, San Diego didn’t have the kind of success they envisioned. They reached the postseason just once in the last three years. A second-half collapse cost them a playoff berth in 2021. They rebounded with a trip to the NLCS in ’22 but finished 82-80 last season. A strong final couple weeks ostensibly brought them within a couple games of a playoff spot, but the 2023 club was more or less finished by the end of August.
One can debate whether the Friars should’ve more aggressively marketed Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline. A fringe contender at the time, they elected to add around the margins rather than move their top impending free agents or Soto (whose arbitration price tag they knew was rising). As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’ll only receive picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Snell and Hader, each of whom rejected a qualifying offer.
San Diego’s subsequent decisions don’t negate how well they fared in the Snell trade, however. That turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the past few seasons. No one in the return found much success in Tampa Bay. Three of the four are out of the organization entirely.
Patiño saw MLB action in each season from 2021-23. He logged 101 1/3 innings as a Ray, turning in a 5.24 ERA. Patiño’s control hasn’t developed as expected and he has struggled with home runs throughout his MLB tenure. The Rays moved on at the deadline, sending him to the White Sox for cash. He ended up back in San Diego last week; the Friars claimed him when Chicago put him on waivers. He’s out of options, so he’ll either need to open the season on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams yet again.
Neither of the other prospects involved have reached the majors. Hunt has slowly climbed the minor league ladder, hitting at a roughly league average level at each stop. The Rays didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster, yet Hunt was eligible for minor league free agency after this season. Tampa Bay dealt him to the Mariners (who did add him to the 40-man) for 2022 eighth-round pick Tatem Levins last month. Wilcox remains in the organization but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’21 season. He returned to post a 5.23 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A this year. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few weeks ago.
Mejía, arguably the fourth piece of the return at the time, had the most success for Tampa Bay. The switch-hitting catcher had a .260/.322/.414 batting line in 84 games in 2021. His offense cratered over the last two years, though, as he hit .237/.262/.387 in 459 plate appearances over that stretch. The Rays designated him for assignment in August. He reached free agency at year’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Angels last week.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dodgers Designate Bryan Hudson For Assignment
The Dodgers announced that left-hander Bryan Hudson has been designated for assignment. The move opens up roster space for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year, $325MM deal with Los Angeles was made official this afternoon.
Hudson made his Major League debut this season, appearing in six games for L.A. and posting a 7.27 ERA over 8 2/3 innings of relief work. It was a big milestone in Hudson’s eight-year pro career, which began when he was a third-round pick for the Cubs in the 2015 draft. The 6’8″ Hudson pitched in Chicago’s organization until last winter, when he joined the Dodgers on a minor league contract.
The 26-year-old is a grounder specialist, regularly posting groundball rates north of 50% during his time in the minors. However, Hudson’s groundball rates have dropped to around 46.5% at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons, as he has added a lot more strikeout ability to his arsenal. After posting mostly uninspiring strikeout totals for much of his career, Hudson jumped to a 28.4% strikeout rate with Chicago’s Triple-A club in 2022, and then an even more impressive 35.7K% in 55 2/3 frame with Triple-A Oklahoma City last season.
While his 10.92% career walk rate indicates some wildness in Hudson’s game, his ability to rather drastically increase his ability to miss bats is a positive development, particularly since he is still able to generate grounders at an above-average rate. This skillset isn’t unlikely to go unnoticed on the waiver wire, so there’s a decent chance a bullpen-needy makes a claim on Hudson while he is in DFA limbo.
Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal
For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.
“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”
Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.
The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.
That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.
Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.
It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.
Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.
Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.
To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.
Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.
The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.
The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.
On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.
It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.
Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.
Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.
In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.
The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.
Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rangers Sign Derek Hill, Andrew Knapp, Elier Hernandez To Minors Contracts
The Rangers announced seven minor league signings today, with the players all receiving invitations to the club’s big league Spring Training camp. The signings of Diego Castillo and Jesus Tinoco were previously reported, and Texas’ group included three more players with MLB experience — outfielder Derek Hill, catcher Andrew Knapp, and outfielder Elier Hernandez.
Hill has seen some action in each of the last four Major League seasons, beginning with his big league debut as a member of the Tigers in 2020. Hill appeared in 95 games with Detroit from 2020-22 before signing a minors deal with the Nationals last winter that resulted in 13 more MLB appearances this past season. Washington designated Hill for assignment and outrighted him off the 40-man roster in July, and Hill chose to become a minor league free agency after the regular season was over.
Just a few days shy of his 28th birthday, Hill hasn’t hit much over his limited big league career, with a .229/.279/.314 slash line over 304 plate appearances. Selected 23rd overall by the Tigers in the 2014 draft, Hill’s bat took a while to get going even in the minors, though he has hit .288/.348/.472 with 22 homers and 28 steals (in 35 tries) over 756 career PA at the Triple-A level.
These numbers hint at some “quad-A” uncertainty for Hill, yet his speed, Triple-A production, and his ability to at least passably play all three outfield positions should keep giving him some opportunities on minor league contracts. With Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski both free agents, Hill and Hernandez will give the Rangers some outfield depth at the Triple-A level, especially since top prospect Wyatt Langford is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024 and Evan Carter has already broken out as an outfield regular heading into next season.
It’s a familiar role for Hernandez, who is returning for his fourth straight season in the Texas organization. Originally an international signing for the Royals way back in 2011, the 29-year-old Hernandez has become a fixture at Triple-A Round Rock, posting particularly good numbers for the Rangers’ top affiliate in each of the last two seasons. That production earned Hernandez his first big league look in 2022, when he had a .442 OPS over 35 PA in 14 games with Texas.
The 32-year-old Knapp has the most Major League experience of the trio, as the veteran backstop suited up for 325 appearances from 2017-22. Most (309) of that work came as a part-time catcher and backup with the Phillies, but Knapp has since bounced around the league since he first elected free agency following the 2021 season. Knapp saw MLB action with three teams (the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants) in 2022, and he has also been a member of the Reds, Tigers, and Astros organization without the benefit of any big league call-ups. Knapp spent all of 2023 at Triple-A, hitting a combined .233/.328/.377 over 358 for Detroit and Houston’s top affiliates.
With Mitch Garver now joining the Mariners and already leaning more towards a DH-only role anyway, the Rangers were in need of some additional depth behind the plate. Jonah Heim will start and Knapp could give Sam Huff some competition for the backup job in Spring Training. Since there aren’t any other catchers in the organization with any big league experience, Texas will likely look to add one or two more backstops on minor league deals to further add to their list of catching options heading into camp.
Blue Jays Interested In Amed Rosario
The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Amed Rosario, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that the veteran infielder is “on the team’s radar,” and that “under the right circumstances” Rosario could be a fit for Toronto’s roster. These conditionals seem to imply that multi-positional players like Rosario or Isiah Kiner-Falefa (another known player of interest for the Jays) could perhaps be fallback options if the Blue Jays can’t land one of their primary targets for their vacancies at second and third base.
Rosario was one of baseball’s top minor leaguers during his time in the Mets’ farm system, universally seen as a top-10 prospect heading into the 2017 season. A lack of inconsistency over his first four MLB seasons ultimately made the Mets willing to part ways, though Rosario held enough value that he was still one of the key pieces of the four-player trade package New York sent to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco in January 2021.
The change of scenery seemed to work out, as Rosario hit .282/.316/.406 with 22 home runs and 31 steals (in 35 attempts) over 1258 plate appearances during the 2021-22 seasons. Between this above-average (103 wRC+) offensive production and some passable defense, Rosario generated 5.2 fWAR for the Guardians over those two seasons as their regular shortstop.
2023 was much more of a struggle, as Rosario hit only .263/.305/.378 over 545 total PA with the Guardians and Dodgers. A deadline trade to Los Angeles didn’t get Rosario’s bat on track, though his new role as a second baseman showed some promising results in a small sample size. Rosario had +3 Defensive Runs Saved and a +18.2 UZR/150 over 190 innings at second base in L.A., which marked the first time he had played the position in his big league career.
Public defensive metrics had generally been down on Rosario’s shortstop glovework throughout his career, and last season represented a nadir of -16 DRS, -4.4 UZR/150, and -14 Outs Above Average. It was a disappointing setback after Rosario had very impressive DRS and UZR/150 numbers as a shortstop in 2022, and it could hint that Rosario’s defensive future is ultimately at the keystone. Rosario has also gotten some limited playing time in left and center field, so he could be more of a utility player even if he isn’t a defensive standout as an outfielder.
MLBTR ranked Rosario 39th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting a two-year, $18MM deal even in the wake of his lackluster 2023 season. The combination of Rosario’s age (28), his past top-prospect pedigree, and the overall thin middle infield market factored into the prediction of a multi-year contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him land just a one-year “prove it” type of contract. Such a deal might appeal to Rosario and his reps at Octagon as well, as a bounce-back in 2024 could then line Rosario up for a more lucrative multi-year contract as a free agent next winter.
In Toronto, Rosario would essentially be a replacement for Whit Merrifield — a right-handed hitter mostly slotted for second base but who could also fill in for Daulton Varsho or Kevin Kiermaier in left or center field when a southpaw starter is on the mound. Rosario also brings a lot of speed and good contact numbers, as evidenced by a solid 22.1% strikeout rate.
However, as Nicholson-Smith’s report hinted, there are some reasons why the Blue Jays might not necessarily have Rosario at the top of their wishlist. His subpar numbers in 2023 don’t represent much of an upgrade for a Toronto team whose offense struggled last year, and it can be argued that the Jays already have comparable internal options at second base. The group of Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, and Ernie Clement are still on the roster, and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, or Leo Jimenez could all make their MLB debuts perhaps rather early in the 2024 campaign. Most players in this group are better suited for second base than third base, so signing Rosario for at least a semi-regular keystone role would create a bit of a logjam for the Jays.
The Blue Jays’ pursuit of Shohei Ohtani dominated the headlines and seemingly much of the team’s attention for the first portion of the offseason, but the Jays made their first big move of the winter just yesterday as news broke of the club’s reunion with Kiermaier on a one-year deal. Beyond Rosario and Kiner-Falefa, such infielders as Jonathan India, Jake Cronenworth, Justin Turner, Rhys Hoskins, and Isaac Paredes have been linked to the Blue Jays on the rumor mill, plus re-signing third baseman Matt Chapman remains a possibility. With Kiermaier’s return helping solidify the outfield picture, Toronto’s focus may now shift to addressing their needs in the infield and at DH.
NPB’s Rakuten Golden Eagles Sign Cody Ponce
The Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-hander Cody Ponce, the team announced. This will mark Ponce’s third straight season in NPB, as he pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters in both 2022 and 2023.
Ponce posted a solid 3.47 ERA over 135 innings for the Fighters over the last two seasons, though he missed about a month of the 2023 campaign due to injury. His 18.76% strikeout rate and 6.88% walk rate basically matched his work over six minor league seasons, as Ponce relies on good command and soft contact to generate outs, rather than missing a lot of bats. Ponce’s tenure in NPB was highlighted by a no-hitter on August 27, 2022, making him the seventh foreign-born player to toss a no-no in NPB since 1950.
A second-round pick for the Brewers in the 2015 draft, Ponce had a 3.93 ERA over 476 career frames in the minors, pitching in both the Milwaukee and Pittsburgh farm systems. The Brewers dealt Ponce to the Pirates in a 2019 deadline deal that brought Jordan Lyles to Milwaukee, and Ponce then made his Major League debut the following season. Over 55 1/3 career innings in the big leagues, Ponce has a 5.86 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, working mostly as a long reliever but with a few spot starts on his resume.
Pitching in Japan has allowed Ponce more of an opportunity as a regular starter than he likely would’ve received in North America, not to mention a steadier paycheck. It isn’t surprising to see Ponce stick around for another year in NPB, and since he doesn’t turn 30 until April, there’s still plenty of time for the righty to consider a return to the Show down the road.
Guardians Acquire Estevan Florial From Yankees
The Yankees and Guardians have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Estevan Florial to Cleveland in exchange for right-hander Cody Morris, per an announcement from both clubs.
The trade ends Florial’s tenure with the Yankees, with whom he signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015. After posting solid numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues during his teenage years and reaching the High-A level before his 20th birthday, Florial began getting buzz as a consensus top-50 prospect throughout the sport prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Florial somewhat from there as the outfielder struggled at the High-A level in both 2018 and 2019. He made his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season and since then has served as a depth outfielder for the big league Yankees, with 48 appearances in the majors total in his four-year big league career.
While Florial, 26, has managed a slash line of just .209/.313/.296 across his 134 career plate appearances in the majors, his time in the minor leagues has seen him improve substantially in recent years. Fl0rial sports a career slash line of .265/.358/.490 at the Triple-A level, with an even more impressive .284/.380/.565 slash line in 101 games at the level in 2023. Given Florial’s extremely limited big league exposure to this point in his career, it’s easy to imagine him finding some level of success in Cleveland, where he should have a clear path to at least semi-regular at-bats. The Guardians put forth the third-worst outfield unit in the majors last year by measure of wRC+, as the club’s outfielders collectively hit just .250/.312/.342. Florial could challenge the likes of Ramon Laureano and Myles Straw for regular playing time alongside Steven Kwan, who appears locked into left field entering the 2024 campaign.
In exchange for Florial’s services, the Guardians are parting with Morris. The 27-year-old right-hander was the club’s seventh-round pick in the 2018 draft and first made his big league debut in 2022, where he performed well in seven appearances (five starts). While Morris posted an elevated walk rate of 12% that pushed his FIP up to 4.34, he struck out a respectable 23% of batters faced and managed an excellent 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work during his first season in the majors.
In the minor leagues, Morris was even more impressive, with a career 1.68 ERA and a 37.8% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of work between the Double-A and Triple-A levels as the 2022 campaign came to a close. Morris opened the 2023 season on the injured list due to a teres major strain but returned to action in June. While the right-hander put up respectable numbers at Triple-A, including a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings of work across 21 appearances, he struggled badly across six relief appearances in the majors with a 6.75 ERA over eight innings of work.
Despite Morris’s struggles with injury and ineffectiveness at the big league level last year, he provides the Yankees with an interesting, optionable arm who has experience pitching both out of the rotation and in the bullpen with strong numbers at the minor league level and some small-sample size success at the big league level. That type of arm would surely be attractive to just about any club, but could be particularly appealing to the Yankees after the club shipped cost-controlled pitchers like Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to San Diego as part of the package that landed the club Juan Soto earlier this month.
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