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Pirates Announce Several Minor League Deals

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The Pirates announced six minor league deals to reporters today, with Justice delos Santos of MLB.com among those to relay them on Twitter. They include the previously reported deals for catcher Tyler Heineman, as well as right-handers Tyler Chatwood and Nate Webb. Also included in the announcement are three left-handers: Daniel Zamora, Rob Zastryzny and Ángel Perdomo.

Zamora, 30 in April, will be returning to his original organization, as he was drafted by the Pirates in 2015. He was later traded to the Mets and made his major league debut with them. He’s seen scattered MLB action in recent years, reaching the big in 2018, 2019 and 2021, logging 22 innings with a 4.50 ERA. He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers for 2022, tossing 63 Triple-A innings with a 3.86 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate.

Zastryzny, 31 in March, pitched for the Cubs from 2016 to 2018 but didn’t make it to the big leagues in the three subsequent seasons. He returned in 2022, making one appearance for the Mets and three for the Angels after a waiver claim. He spent most of the year in Triple-A between the two organizations, throwing 55 1/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He was non-tendered by the Halos in November.

Perdomo, 29 in May, made 22 appearances with the Brewers over 2020 and 2021 but struggled to the tune of an 8.24 ERA. The Rays claimed him off waivers from the Brewers in July but neither team called him up to the big leagues. He ended up throwing 34 innings in the minors between the two clubs, posting a 1.85 ERA while striking out an incredible 40.3% of batters faced but walking 12.9% of them.

These three southpaws will give the Bucs an extra layer of depth in terms of left-handed relief. Right now, the club only has two lefties on their 40-man roster in Jarlín García and Jose Hernandez, the latter of those two being a recent Rule 5 draftee from the Dodgers. If any of this group separates themselves from the pack, there could be a role for them. All three of them have limited service time, meaning they could be retained cheaply for future seasons if they crack the roster. However, they are all out of options, meaning they can’t easily be sent back down to the minors afterwards.

Cubs Sign Tucker Barnhart To Two-Year Deal

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The Cubs and catcher Tucker Barnhart are in agreement on a two-year deal, though the second year is a player option. He’ll be guaranteed $6.5MM but escalators could push his earnings to $9.5MM. The deal is pending a physical. Barnhart is represented by the Ballengee Group.

The catching situation in Wrigley has been in flux for some time, despite the fact that they’ve had one of the best backstops in the league for the past seven seasons in Willson Contreras. The club leaned into a rebuild in 2021, trading away Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez and Kris Bryant, among others. Contreras stayed at that time as he still was under control for 2022, but a trade still seemed inevitable. That feeling only increased when the club signed Yan Gomes to a two-year deal going into the season.

Curiously, a deal never came together, though it was later reported that they had a trade lined up with the Astros before Houston owner Jim Crane scuttled the deal. Contreras eventually turned down a qualifying offer from the Cubs and signed with the Cardinals. That will net the Cubs an extra pick in the upcoming draft but it left them a bit thin behind the plate.

Gomes is still under contract for one more year but he’s now 35 years old and coming off a poor year at the plate. He hit .235/.260/.365 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 73, indicating he was 27% below league average. The only other catchers on the 40-man roster are P.J. Higgins, who is more of a utility player than can catch if needed, and Miguel Amaya, who has yet to reach Triple-A. Given those options, catcher was a natural target for the Cubs, who were also connected to Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez, Curt Casali and Roberto Perez at times this offseason.

Barnhart, 32 next month, should provide the Cubs with a fairly stable profile. He’s rarely been exceptional or awful, on either side of the ball. He’s hit .245/.320/.360 in his career for a wRC+ of 80. That indicates he’s been 20% below league average overall, but catchers generally are less potent at the plate than their peers. The league average catcher posted a wRC+ of 89 in 2022. Barnhart has never posted a wRC+ higher than 90 but he’s also never finished below 63, apart from his brief debut in 2014. That 63, however, was just this past season with Detroit, when he batted .221/.287/.267.

On the glove side, Barnhart has 12 DRS for his career. FanGraphs has graded his framing as poor on the whole, but it bottomed out in 2018 and was above-average in next three seasons before dipping just below in 2022. Although defensive metrics don’t paint him as a lights-out defender, Barnhart has won a pair of Gold Gloves, including in 2017 when he nabbed a league-leading 44% of runners who attempted to swipe a base on his watch. He also received interest from the Reds, Pirates and Astros this offseason but will join the Cubs, returning the National Central where he spent many years as a Red.

The Cubs have been fairly aggressive this winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Brad Boxberger and now Barnhart. That brings the club’s payroll up to $172MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $206MM. That payroll is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $143MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though they’ve been up as high as $203MM in the past. It’s unknown how much more the club plans on spending, but it’s possible there’s more there to work with. They’re also more than $20MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, which is $233MM.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first reported that the Cubs and Barnhart were closing in on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that an agreement was in place. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the one-year plus a player option framework. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the financials.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Release Eric Hosmer

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December 22: As expected, Hosmer has been released, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

December 16: The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Wyatt Mills from the Royals in exchange for minor league righty Jacob Wallace and opened a spot on the roster by designating first baseman Eric Hosmer for assignment, per a team announcement.

Hosmer came to the Sox in a deadline deal just a few months ago. The Padres signed him to an eight-year, $144MM contract going into 2018, a deal that most observers considered an overpay from the moment it was announced. Hosmer’s production dipped thereafter, which only added to the albatross nature of the deal.

In 2017, his last year with the Royals, Hosmer hit .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135, indicating that he was 35% better than league average. But in his first season as a Padre, he produced a line of .253/.322/.398 for a wRC+ of 95. Apart from a surge in the shortened 2020 campaign, he’s been around league average in each season and frequently mentioned in trade rumors with San Diego hoping to get rid of him. As the deadline approached this past summer, Hosmer was originally included in the blockbuster deal that was to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego. However, Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that included the Nationals, allowing him to veto the deal. Instead, Luke Voit was sent to Washington in his place, but the Padres then quickly dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox, who were not on his no-trade list.

As part of that deal, the Red Sox would only have to pay Hosmer the league minimum salary, with the Padres remaining on the hook for the rest of it. With this move just a few months later, it seems the trade was more about the young players involved, as Boston sent pitching prospect Jay Groome to the Padres but received a couple prospects as well in Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson. It’s also possible that the club viewed Hosmer as a bit of a safety net at first base, where Bobby Dalbec had been struggling and prospect Triston Casas had yet to reach the majors. Casas was called up in September and launched five home runs down the stretch as well as walking in 20% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .197/.358/.408, wRC+ of 120. Perhaps that debut gave them enough confidence to proceed without Hosmer.

Whatever the motivation, Hosmer’s time in Boston seems likely to end after just 14 games. The club will have one week to trade him or put him on waivers, though a trade will be difficult to arrange. As part of Hosmer’s contract, he gained a full no-trade clause after being dealt by the Padres. It’s also possible that a team might have interest in claiming Hosmer off release waivers, as his minimal salary would create a no-risk scenario for the claiming club. However, players on release waivers are allowed to reject claims and elect free agency, which likely means no team would bother putting in a claim. It seems the most likely scenario is that Hosmer ends up released and returns to the open market.

Though he hasn’t produced more than 0.8 fWAR in any season since 2017, it’s likely some teams that need help at first base or designated hitter would have some interest. The Padres are on the hook for the $39MM owed to Hosmer over the next three years and any team that signs him would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Padres pay.

Over the last three seasons, his batting line is .271/.335/.407 for a wRC+ of 107, or 7% above league average. That doesn’t lead to a lot of value overall as he is generally graded as a poor defender, but it’s possible he could find a bit of uptick at the plate next year. The upcoming rules on defensive shifts are expected to primarily benefit left-handed hitters like Hosmer, as teams stack the right side of the infield with defenders. Hosmer’s worst trait as a hitter is his incredibly high ground ball tendencies, as his career rate is 54.5%. For reference, this year’s league average as 42.9%.

Many of the top first baseman from this winter’s free agent class have already been signed, with José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo off the board. For clubs still looking for upgrades there, Hosmer will likely join the remaining options, such as Trey Mancini, Brandon Drury, Matt Carpenter, Wil Myers and Brandon Belt.

As for the other players involved in today’s announcement, Mills, 28 next month, was designated for assignment by the Royals when they signed Ryan Yarbrough earlier this week. The Royals had only acquired him a few months earlier as part of the Carlos Santana trade. He tossed 29 1/3 innings for the Royals with a 4.60 ERA, but the Red Sox are likely more interested in his minor league numbers. In 33 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, he posted a 2.14 ERA while striking out 29.9% of batters faced, though he also walked 12.7% of them. He still has an option year remaining, giving them an intriguing depth option with roster flexibility.

Wallace, 24, was drafted by the Rockies but came to the Red Sox as the player to be named later in the Kevin Pillar trade. He spent this year in Double-A, tossing 56 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate, though a huge 19.6% walk rate.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Sign Wil Myers To One-Year Deal

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The Reds announced they have signed first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2024. Myers will be guaranteed $7.5MM on the deal, which comes in the form of a $6MM salary in 2023 along with a $1.5MM buyout on the option. He can earn a further $1.5MM of incentives based on playing time and will receive an extra $500K if he’s traded, potentially earning $9.5MM by season’s end. Myers is represented by CAA Sports.

Myers, 32, was originally drafted by the Royals but was traded to the Rays before he made it to the majors. He was considered one of the best prospects in the league at that time, with Baseball America ranking him fourth overall going into the 2013 season. Myers would go on to make his MLB debut with Tampa that year, posting a batting line of .293/.354/.478. That production was 29% above average, by measure of wRC+. He was worth 2.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and won the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Despite his prospect status and exciting debut, Myers has since settled in as more of a decent regular than a true star. He endured a sophomore slump in 2014, hitting just .222/.294/.320 for a wRC+ of 76. After that season, Myers was traded to the Padres and bounced back. Injuries limited him to just 60 games in 2015, but his 2016 was excellent. He hit 28 home runs and stole 28 bases, finishing the year with a batting line of .259/.336/.461 and a wRC+ of 114. That resulted in a 3.4 fWAR tally and encouraged the Padres to give Myers a six-year, $83MM extension.

Unfortunately for the Padres, that 2016 campaign now stands out as Myers’ best. He’s still been a valuable player, but hasn’t topped 2.0 fWAR in any subsequent season. Despite still being a decent contributor, his contract eventually came to be seen as an albatross due to its back-loaded nature. Myers got a $15MM signing bonus but then modest salaries of $2MM in 2017 and 2018, followed by $3MM in 2019, but then jumping to $20MM for each of the last three years of the deal. The club reportedly made many attempts to trade Myers in the latter half of the deal but never succeeded.

Over the six years of that contract, Myers hit 98 home runs and stole 61 bases. He struck out in 29.2% of his plate appearances but also walked at a healthy 9.8% rate. In the end, he produced a combined batting line of .252/.327/.451 for a wRC+ of 109, indicating he was 9% better than the league average hitter in that timeframe. He should be able to provide the Reds with a solid veteran bat that might also play up in their hitter-friendly ballpark.

Defensively, Myers played exclusively at first base in 2017 but has spent most of his time in the outfield in the five seasons since. Advanced metrics are split on his work, though he generally grades out as being about average as a corner outfielder and a bit subpar at first base. Myers’ flexibility in that regard is likely appealing to a Reds’ team that has uncertainty in those areas. Joey Votto has been the club’s first baseman for well over a decade now, but he’s now 39 years old, turning 40 in September. He also underwent season-ending rotator cuff surgery in August, which comes with an estimated six-month recovery time. That should allow him to return before Opening Day, but Myers gives them an experienced fallback plan if there’s any kind of setback or if the club wants to reduce Votto’s playing time.

In the outfield, they have a number of in-house options but no one really cemented in place. Nick Senzel, Nick Solak, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl are some of the candidates who could be vying for outfield roles in 2023, but none of them have proven themselves enough that they should be guaranteed anything. Myers can step in wherever he fits best based on how those others are doing and can also take some time as the designated hitter if those others are all doing well. Mike Moustakas is also in line for some DH duty but he’s coming off two-straight disappointing and injury-marred campaigns. If Myers is performing well or the Reds simply want to make room for their younger players, Myers could become a trade candidate as the deadline approaches.

Financially, the rebuilding Reds haven’t thrown much money around this winter. This is just their second major league signing of the offseason alongside a modest deal for backup catcher Luke Maile. Roster Resource calculates this signing as bumping their payroll up to $78MM. That’s still well shy of their $114MM figure from Opening Day 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they are willing to spend up to similar levels, they could still have some more cash for further moves, though they also might stay on the low side after aggressively trading away significant salaries in recent years.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the $7.5MM guarantee and the ability for Myers to reach $9.5MM. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer first had the specifics of the $500K bonus for a trade plus $1.5MM in incentives. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com first broke down the $6MM salary in 2023 with the $1.5MM buyout on the option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals Claim Jeter Downs, Designate Reed Garrett

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The Nationals announced they have claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Red Sox. Downs had been recently designated for assignment by Boston. To create space on the 40-man roster, the Nats designated reliever Reed Garrett for assignment. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. reported the claim of Downs prior to the official announcement.

Downs, 24, is perhaps best known as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in February of 2020. Downs went to the Red Sox alongside Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong. At the time, Downs was a highly-touted prospect, featuring on the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 list in both 2020 and 2021.

Unfortunately, his stock has completely nosedived in the past two years. After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Downs spent 2021 in Triple-A, getting into 99 games on the year. His power and speed were still evident, as he hit 14 home runs and stole 18 bases. However, he struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances and finished with a batting line of .190/.272/.333 for a wRC+ of 62.

2022 was an improvement but only slightly. His strikeout rate dropped but was still quite high at 29.6%. He added another 16 homers and swiped 18 more bags, but his batting line of .197/.316/.412 added up to a 95 wRC+. He also got into 14 MLB games but hit just .154/.171/.256 in that small sample, striking out in 51.2% of his trips to the plate.

The Sox gave up on him by designating him for assignment last week but the rebuilding Nats will give him a shot. He’s still only 24, was a top prospect less than two years ago and has two option years remaining. He also brings defensive versatility, having primarily played shortstop but also some second and third base.

The Nats will have a young middle infield consisting of CJ Abrams at shortstop and Luis Garcia at second. Third base figures to be manned by Jeimer Candelario, though he’s only on a one-year deal and could be dealt at midseason if he’s performing well. Carter Kieboom is also in the mix for work at the hot corner though he’s struggled in the big leagues so far and missed the 2022 season entirely due to Tommy John surgery. Veteran Ildemaro Vargas is also on hand as a utility option, though there are avenues there for Downs to work his way into the picture if he can get things back on track.

Garrett, 30 in January, he has limited MLB experience, getting into 13 games with the 2019 Tigers and another seven with the 2022 Nationals with a stint in Japan in between. He posted a 6.75 ERA in the big leagues this year but was much better in the minors. He logged 47 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.04 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. The Nats will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of option years remaining and had solid minor league numbers this year, which could lead to some interest from other clubs.

White Sox Acquire Gregory Santos

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The White Sox are acquiring reliever Gregory Santos from the Giants, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Santos was recently designated for assignment by the Giants. The White Sox have since announced the deal, with minor league right-hander Kade McClure going the other way.

Santos, 23, began his career in the Red Sox organization but came to the Giants in the 2017 deadline deal that sent Eduardo Núñez to Boston. The Giants were impressed enough with his development to give him a 40-man roster spot ahead of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. In 2021, Santos made a brief MLB debut but was handed an 80-game suspension in June after testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned performance-enhancing drug.

In 2022, Santos served as optional depth, throwing just 3 2/3 innings in the big leagues. In 33 Triple-A innings, he posted a 4.91 ERA with strong strikeout rate and ground ball rates of 23% and 51.7%, respectively. However, control was an issue with Santos walking 13.5% of batters faced, something that has been a persistent problem in recent years. He has a 16.7% walk rate in his brief MLB tenure as well.

Despite those control issues, the White Sox are likely interested in the power of his arm, as his fastball averaged at 98.8 mph in his brief showing this year. He’s also still quite young and has one option year remaining, allowing him to serve as depth in the minor leagues.

McClure, 27 in February, was a sixth round selection of the White Sox in 2017. He worked his way up the minors as a starting pitcher, posting decent enough results for Baseball America to deem him the #20 White Sox prospect going into 2021. Unfortunately, he reached Triple-A that year and struggled by posting a 6.81 ERA. In 2022, the Sox shifted him to the bullpen, as he made just five starts and 39 relief appearances. His 4.97 ERA in Triple-A this year still isn’t great, but he did have solid peripherals with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 39% ground ball rate.

Mets Sign Omar Narvaez

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December 22: The Mets have officially announced the deal.

December 15: The Mets have dipped into free agency yet again, agreeing to terms with backstop Omar Narváez. It’s reportedly a two-year, $15MM guarantee that allows him to opt out at the end of next season. Narváez, a client of ISE Baseball, will make $8MM in 2023, leaving him to decide on a $7MM option for the following season.

Narváez, who turns 31 in February, heads to Queens after three seasons in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired the lefty-hitting backstop from the Mariners during the 2019-20 offseason. Narváez had developed a reputation as a bat-first catcher in the Pacific Northwest. He’d hit .278/.353/.460 during his lone season with Seattle. That’s excellent production for a catcher, but his pitch framing metrics were well below-average.

The Brewers landed the #1 catcher they’d been seeking in that deal, although they likely didn’t foresee the scope of his production changing the way it did. Narváez seemed to make a concerted effort to improving his pitch framing numbers. He posted strong marks in that regard in all three seasons in Wisconsin, with Statcast cumulatively crediting him as 21 runs above average over the three-year stretch. That defensive uptick coincided with a drop in production at the plate, though, as he hasn’t managed to repeat his early-career offensive numbers.

Over his time as a Brewer, Narváez hit .233/.318/.350. He was average or worse in each season, including a lackluster .206/.292/.305 mark in 296 plate appearances during his platform year. The Venezuela native had a pair of injured list stints this year, missing time with COVID-19 and then a left hamstring strain. Even when healthy, Milwaukee deployed a more even split in playing time with Víctor Caratini, who marginally outperformed Narváez at the plate.

Narváez has solid contact skills, but a 22-homer season of 2019 now looks like the product of the very lively ball used that season. He’s only topped 10 homers in another year once, hitting 11 in Milwaukee’s hitter-friendly home environment in 2021. While he rarely hits the ball hard, he’s worked walks at a strong clip in each season of his career and strikes out less often than the average batter (aside from an anomalous spike in the abbreviated 2020 campaign).

It’s a bit surprising to see Narváez secure a $15MM commitment, particularly one that affords him a chance to retest the market a year from now. With Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez off the board, he was the top remaining free agent backstop. Narváez has showed glimpses of offensive and defensive potential, although he’s never quite put the two together over a full season.

New York has been incredibly aggressive this winter, but they’d sat out the catching market. The Mets could’ve rolled things back with veteran James McCann as the starter, particularly since they have the glove-first Tomás Nido as a depth option and top prospect Francisco Álvarez in the wings. McCann has only a .220/.282/.328 line in 603 plate appearances since signing a four-year free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason. Nido has never hit enough to be a regular, and the 21-year-old Álvarez still faces questions about his ability to handle the rigors of the position. The presence of Narváez doesn’t figure to stand in Álvarez’s way once the organization deems the youngster ready for a full look, though it’ll afford them some extra veteran security if he needs more time to hone his receiving and game-calling skills.

The Mets would presumably be happy to find a trade partner for McCann. With $24MM still due over the final two years of his contract, the Mets would surely have to pay down some of the money to offload the veteran backstop. They could keep the righty-hitting McCann to partner with Nárvaez in a loose platoon arrangement. Doing so might require parting with Nido, however, since he’s out of minor league option years. All three backstops would have to stay on the MLB roster or be cut loose, and that’s before considering the possibility of an Álvarez promotion. At some point next year, one of McCann or Nido seems likely to have changed uniforms.

Tacking on another $8MM brings the Mets projected 2023 payroll north of $343MM, per Roster Resource. The deal counts for $7.5MM against the luxury tax, since the player option is treated as guaranteed money when calculating its average annual value.

New York has already shattered the fourth and final tier of CBT penalization, subjecting them to a 90% tax on every additional dollar spent. The Narváez deal will cost them an extra $6.75MM in taxes, meaning the Mets are committing $14.75MM to secure his services for next year alone (in addition to the 2024 option). That’s likely a far higher price than any other club would’ve paid, but it’s the latest example owner Steve Cohen is unconcerned about spending when the front office presents him an opportunity to improve the roster.

Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Narváez and the Mets were nearing agreement on a contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post  first reported it was a two-year guarantee with an opt-out after 2023. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $15MM guarantee and financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign Seth Lugo

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Dec. 22: The Padres have officially announced Lugo’s signing.

Dec. 19, 1:33pm: Lugo will be guaranteed a bit more than $15MM on the contract and can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season, tweets Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Heyman adds that the deal pays Lugo $7.5MM in 2023 before he’ll decide on a $7.5MM player option for 2024.

1:13pm: The Padres are finalizing a contract with free-agent righty Seth Lugo, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets the two sides have agreed to a deal. The Post’s Joel Sherman adds that the Padres plan for Lugo to join the starting rotation. San Diego and the division-rival Dodgers were reportedly the two likeliest landing spots for the Ballengee Group client.

Lugo, 33, has been a reliable member of the Mets’ bullpen for the past two seasons but has ample starting experience in his career and had been hoping to land with a team that would give him an opportunity to start. The Padres can likely offer just such an opportunity, as the fifth spot in their rotation behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez is currently unsettled. Left-hander and former top prospect Adrian Morejon had previously been seen as a front-runner for that spot, but he’ll now act as a depth option alongside minor league hurlers Ryan Weathers, Jay Groome, Pedro Avila and Reiss Knehr.

Over the past two seasons in the Mets’ bullpen, Lugo has turned in a 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate and a 44.4% ground-ball rate. His average four-seamer has clocked in at 94.4 mph in that time, and while it’s possible that velocity will dip a bit when working in longer stints, Lugo has far more secondary offerings than the standard reliever. In addition to that four-seamer, he’ll also throw a plus curveball, a sinker, an occasional slider and a more seldom-used changeup.

That repertoire of four, if not five pitches, surely emboldened some teams to consider him as a potential addition to the rotation. Lugo has made 38 starts in his career — all of which has been spent with the Mets to this point — and once looked as though he might have a chance to solidify himself on the starting staff in Queens. However, a “slight” tear of his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament back in 2017 derailed his season.

The tear was minimal enough that surgery was not recommended, however. Lugo received a platelet-rich plasma injection, opted for a rest-and-rehab approach, and returned to the mound as a reliever in 2018. By the time required surgery to remove a bone spur from the elbow in 2021, his surgeon remarked that he was “impressed with how [the UCL] wound up” (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).

With a clean bill of health and some quality recent results out of the ’pen, Lugo becomes an interesting upside candidate in the fifth spot of the Padres’ rotation. Moving him to the bullpen will always be there as a safety net, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter, and those numbers are skewed by a disastrous showing in the shortened 2020 season. From 2016-18, Lugo tossed 168 1/3 innings as a starter and recorded a more palatable 4.06 ERA. He hasn’t seen an enormous spike in opponents’ productivity when facing them a second or third time in a game; in fact, his opponents’ numbers have actually worsened when facing him a second/third time — though it’s unlikely that trend will continue.

Lugo’s $7.5MM annual salary will push the Padres’ 2023 payroll north of $240MM, while the team’s projected luxury-tax ledger will jump just north of $262MM, per Roster Resource. The Padres are currently lined up to exceed the tax threshold for a third consecutive season. As such, they’re paying a 50% penalty on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM first-tier barrier, and a 62% overage on the next $20MM. The Friars were already more than $20MM over the tax line, so they’ll pay a 62% overage on Lugo’s $7.5MM AAV — a sum of $4.65MM.

Such penalties are seemingly of little consequence to an ultra-aggressive Padres club that has succeeded in high-profile pursuits of Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Xander Bogaerts in the past six months alone. Owner Peter Seidler appears steadfastly committed to his “championship at all costs” mindset, even if that means spending a total of $12.15MM (salary and luxury hit combined) on a fifth starter while including the downside (for the team) of a 2024 player option.

It’s a nice deal for Lugo, who’ll command the same type of guarantee many setup men of his caliber receive in free agency — but with the opportunity to opt back into free agency a year from now if the rotation experiment works out. Even if Lugo is ultimately moved to the ’pen for one reason or another, so long as he continues at his prior pace with the Mets, he could even opt out and land a larger commitment as a pure reliever next winter. And, of course, if he ends up injured or sees his performance completely crater, he’ll have the security of a substantial salary already locked in for the 2024 season.

Guardians Sign Caleb Baragar, Caleb Simpson To Minor League Deals

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The Guardians announced that they have signed a couple of Calebs to minor league deals. Left-hander Caleb Baragar and right-hander Caleb Simpson will join the organization and receive invitations to major league Spring Training.

Baragar, 29 in April, has seen some major league time with the Giants, making 49 appearances for them over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In that time, he posted a 2.78 ERA despite middling rate states. His 18.8% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 21.7% ground ball rate are all worse than league average.

Things didn’t go as smoothly in the minors, as he posted an 8.46 ERA in 22 1/3 Triple-A innings in 2021, surely pushed northwards by a huge 17.6% walk rate. The Giants designated him for assignment in March of 2022 and he landed with the Diamondbacks on a waiver claim, who subsequently outrighted him in April. He posted a 5.51 ERA for the Triple-A Reno Aces in 2022, who play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Baragar struck out a healthy 23.8% of batters faced but still gave free passes at a high rate of 13.8%.

Simpson, 31, has yet to crack the major leagues, though he was included in Boston’s 60-man player pool during the 2020 season. He’s generally posted solid numbers up the minor league ladder but has struggled at Triple-A so far. In 2022, he posted a 2.92 ERA at Double-A but then a 9.11 ERA at the level above. His rate stats all took a hit as well, as he struck out 27.5% of Double-A hitters but just 21.3% in Triple-A. His walk rate went from 9.8% to 13.2% and his ground ball rate from 51.7% to 42.5%.

For the Guardians, there’s little harm in bringing in the two Calebs for some extra non-roster depth. Both players still have options and limited service time, meaning they could be cheap and versatile arms for the club if they show enough to crack the roster.

The Opener: Mets, Giants, Orioles

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the baseball world today:

1. How many more moves do the Mets have in them?

After their jaw-dropping signing of Carlos Correa to play third base, the Mets made another pair of moves last night, shipping James McCann out to the Orioles and adding Danny Mendick on a $1MM deal. With Mets officials reportedly expecting Mendick to be ready for Opening Day on March 30th, his signing will likely further fuel speculation that Eduardo Escobar, who has already been pushed to the bench by Correa, could be the next veteran piece the Mets ship out. Correa’s signing also leaves Brett Baty and Mark Vientos blocked at third base. While both prospects can play other positions (Baty can play the outfield, while Vientos can profiles better at first or DH than third), Billy Eppler’s front office may be more willing to dangle them in trade talks now that they have a long-term answer at third base. Such a deal could inspire even more moves. For example, the Mets are already reportedly entertaining offers for Carlos Carrasco, and they would be even more motivated to do so if they landed another starting pitcher by trade, likely pushing Carrasco out of the starting rotation. Whatever specific moves they make from here, the Mets have been among the offseason’s most active teams, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing down as of yet.

2. Will we ever hear the Giants side of the Correa situation?

After the deal between Correa and the Giants fell apart due to medical concerns, Correa’s agent Scott Boras took to the media to explain his– and his client’s– side of the story. Boras characterizes the situation as San Francisco being concerned by an injury that predates Correa’s time in the majors, and says the Giants ultimately did not return to the negotiating table before Boras felt he needed to restart negotiations with other clubs, leading to Correa’s new deal with the Mets. The Giants, for their part, have been relatively quiet on the topic, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi simply noting that the team is not allowed to disclose confidential medical information. Still, given the unprecedented nature of the whole debacle and the confusion and frustration it has caused among the Giants faithful, fans surely are hoping for a more clear explanation and resolution to the whole ordeal in the coming days.

3. Will the Orioles deal from their position player surplus?

The Orioles offseason so far has been decently active, even if it hasn’t been to the level some fans were hoping for. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens have all agreed to one-year deals, while the organization picked up McCann to back up Adley Rutschman last night. Still, there’s much more to do in Baltimore in order to supplement a roster that surprised most by winning 83 games and avoiding a last place finish in the deeply competitive AL East last year. The most glaring hole in the team is the starting rotation, where only Dean Kremer posted an ERA below 4.00 last season, and Gibson may actually be a downgrade from innings-eater Jordan Lyles, who departed for Kansas City after the Orioles declined a 2023 team option for his services. Fortunately for the O’s and their fans, however, there’s plenty of interesting pieces in Baltimore who could draw trade interest from other clubs and make a deal possible. Slick-fielding shortstop Jorge Mateo is already known to have drawn trade interest from teams, but there’s other players who could be available as well. Ramon Urias won a Gold Glove for his work at third base in 2022, but it seems likely the pending arrival of infield prospects like Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz could push him out of an everyday role. The Marlins would make a particularly appealing trade partner for Baltimore, as they’re incredibly deep in rotation options but have a glaring need for bats, making the two clubs a seemingly perfect match to work out a deal. Otherwise, the Cubs and Red Sox could stand to add to their infield mixes, though Baltimore may be wary of trading with a division rival like Boston. While not necessarily on the lookout for bats, a team that lost their shortstop to free agency this offseason, such as the Dodgers or Braves, might have interest in Mateo’s glove at shortstop to supplement their internal options at the position.

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