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Mets Had Contact With Jeurys Familia Before Lockout

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Jeurys Familia has spent parts of ten seasons with the Mets, making up the vast majority of his career thus far. The only time he spent with another organization was when they traded him to Oakland prior to the deadline in 2018, but he re-signed with the Mets on a three-year deal in the following offseason. With that deal now completed, Familia has returned to free agency, and the Mets have interest in re-signing him yet again. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that, prior to the lockout, the Mets had “maintained contact with the right-hander’s camp.”

The Mets were one of the busiest teams prior to the lockout, handing out contracts to Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha, bolstering their rotation and their lineup, and vaulting their 2022 Opening Day payroll up above $263MM. But one area of the team that has yet to be addressed is the bullpen.

The team’s relievers performed adequately in 2021, coming in 9th in MLB in ERA, 10th in fWAR, 6th in strikeout rate and 13th in walk rate. However, the bullpen lost one of its most productive members, Aaron Loup, who parlayed an incredible 0.95 ERA in 2021 into a two-year, $17MM deal with the Angels.

Familia, now 32, also had a good year for the Mets, throwing 59 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.94, with an excellent strikeout rate of 27.5%. His walk rate of 10.3% was a bit higher than the league average of 8.7%, but it was still a marked improvement for Familia, as he had been above 15% in each of the previous two seasons.

Robert Stock Close To Signing With KBO’s Doosan Bears

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Right-handed pitcher Robert Stock is close to signing with the Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Daniel Kim, relaying information from Korean media organizations. He says that there is no official deal just yet but that it “sounds close”.

Stock was selected by St. Louis in the second round of the 2009 draft but didn’t make his MLB debut until 2018, spending time in the organizations of the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds before finally making it to the show with the Padres. In addition to the Padres, Stock has seen some MLB action with the Red Sox, Cubs and Mets over the past four seasons. (He was also claimed by the Phillies after the 2019 season but was designated for assignment before the 2020 season began.) He has 72 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, with an ERA of 4.71, strikeout rate of 23.1% and walk rate of 12.2%.

In 2021, he was only able to throw nine total innings in the big leagues over three starts, putting up an ERA of 8.00. But in 35 1/3 Triple-A innings, he had a 3.57 ERA, along with a very good strikeout rate of 26.2% and walk rate of 8.1%. He was with the Mets when a hamstring strain landed him on the IL in July, an injury that ended his season. He was outrighted off the roster in October and elected free agency.

After years off bouncing from team to team and from the minors to the majors, Stock, 32, now seems to be heading for a job in Korea that will likely provide him more regular playing time and better pay than he would have received with another season as a journeyman in North America. If he is able to thrive in this new opportunity, he could always return to MLB with increased interest from clubs, as many other have done in recent years. As mentioned by Kim, the Bears signed Chris Flexen a couple of years ago, who pitched well enough to garner a two-year contract from the Mariners prior to the 2021 season.

Padres Hiring Mark Loretta As Special Assistant

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The Padres are hiring longtime big leaguer and former Cubs bench coach Mark Loretta as a special assistant to CEO Erik Greupner, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network. This is a homecoming for Loretta, as he had previously spent a decade working for the Padres, from his retirement from playing in 2010 until joining the Cubs in 2019.

Loretta, 50, played in the majors for 15 seasons from 1995 to 2009. He made his debut with the Brewers and played parts of eight seasons with Milwaukee, before also spending some time with the Astros, Padres, Red Sox and Dodgers. Overall, he played 1,726 MLB games, hitting .295/.360/.395 with a paltry strikeout rate of just 9.2%. He was worth 18.9 wins above replacement in his career, according to FanGraphs. He was selected to participate in the All-Star Game in both 2004 and 2006.

He retired from playing after the 2009 season and joined the Padres as a special assistant to the baseball operations staff, staying in that role until taking the bench coach job with the Cubs in 2019. After that season, Joe Maddon departed as manager of the Cubs, with Loretta rumored to be in the running to be Maddon’s replacement, as well as being a candidate for the Padres’ managerial opening. Those jobs eventually went to David Ross and Jayce Tingler, respectively. As Ross was a first-time manager, Andy Green was brought on as the bench coach to give Ross an experienced bench boss by his side, leaving Loretta as an odd man out.

Loretta will now return to the Padres, an organization that he spent time with both as a player and a special assistant. Erik Greupner was the team’s president of business operations until general manager A.J. Preller was extended and promoted to be president of baseball operations almost a year ago, with Greupner also getting bumped up the ladder from president to CEO.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022.  With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive.  Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact.  It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout.  While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt).  However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen.  It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.  Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons.  In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure.  Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic.  With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign.  It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes.  Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans.  Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March.  The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal.  Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee.  With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon.  The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season.  For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns.  There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023.  It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild.  However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames.  Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023.  Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles.  There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal).  If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options.  While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.”  This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021.  Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish.  Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations.  The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team.  Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known.  Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized.  The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023.  An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars.  Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year.  There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim.  With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019.  If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year.  Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign.  If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining.  While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning.  One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise.  Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end.  New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout.  Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term.  That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement.  The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job.  Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year.  The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season.  If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length.  Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series.  Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades.  Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records.  Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change.  It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason.  Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks To Sign Tyler Chatwood

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The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have reached a deal with right-hander Tyler Chatwood, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link).  Chatwood elected free agency after finishing the 2021 season on a minor league contract with the Giants.

After some up-and-down years with the Cubs, Chatwood seemed to be opening a new chapter in his career as a full-time relief pitcher when he signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blue Jays last winter.  Chatwood got off to a good start with the Jays but battled some serious control issues as the year went on, leading Toronto to designate the righty for assignment and then release him in August.  Chatwood caught on with the Giants on a minor league deal but only saw four innings of MLB action with San Francisco.

As a whole, Chatwood posted a 5.63 ERA over 32 innings in 2021, with a respectable 26.2% strikeout rate undermined by an ugly 14.5% walk rate.  Command has been a problem for Chatwood during a large portion of his 10-year Major League career, reaching a nadir when he posted a 19.5% walk rate over 103 2/3 frames with the Cubs in 2018.

The move to Japan provides a fresh start for Chatwood as he enters his age-32 season, and it will be interesting to observe whether he works out of the Hawks’ bullpen, or if he might try to re-establish himself as a starting pitcher.  At least trying to work as a starter might help raise his stock for MLB teams in the future, giving any interested clubs the option of using Chatwood as a starter, reliever, or long man.

Chatwood joins Freddy Galvis and Colin Rea as familiar big leaguers joining the Hawks this winter.  Fukuoka is coming off a rare losing season after dominating Nippon Professional Baseball over the last decade — the Hawks won the Japan Series seven times between 2011-2020, including four straight titles from 2017-20.

The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade

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Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)

That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.

In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.

With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.

Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.

This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.

Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.

Quick Hits: Santana, Nimmo, Bedell

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After receiving a PRP injection in October, Carlos Santana said that “Now, I feel 100 percent” in the wake of an injury-plagued season, the Royals first baseman told The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy.  This tracks with the 4-6 week timeline Santana initially gave in the wake of the injection, which was meant to help treat the Grade 2 quad strain that plagued the veteran slugger during the last six weeks of the season.  Between the quad and other leg problems, Santana clearly wore down in 2021, batting only .185/.217/.284 over his last 351 plate appearances.

With this rough season lingering, Santana said that he is “working on a couple things that I need to help me, my swing and my body.  That’s the only thing I changed.  I started early, working out, compared to the year before.”  Now entering his age-36 season, Santana has posted two below-average offensive years (as per the wRC+ metric) since his 2019 All-Star campaign, which is a little ominous for a Royals team that still owes Santana $10.5MM in 2022.  While Santana has bounced back strongly from disappointing years in the past, 2021 was the worst of his 12 big league seasons by just about every metric, so Santana will have more of a climb to recapture his old form.

More from around the baseball world as we enter 2022….

  • Brandon Nimmo is a free agent next winter, and “the expectation is” that the Mets will pursue a contract extension, The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes.  Nimmo has a strong .266/.393/.445 slash line over six career MLB seasons, yet he has only 1695 PA and 457 games on his big league resume due to a variety of injuries.  Given this checkered health history, one wonders how much of a long-term commitment New York would be willing to make to Nimmo, or if the Mets might only be willing to offer an extension at a relatively team-friendly price.  From Nimmo’s perspective, he will have to weigh locking in some form of a guaranteed payday, or perhaps betting on himself to stay healthy and productive, thus potentially setting him up for a much richer free agent contract from the Mets or another team in the 2022-23 offseason.  Hypothetically, the incentive-heavy extension between the Twins and another oft-injured outfielder in Byron Buxton could serve as something of a model for a Nimmo extension, if likely at a lower price point than the $100MM in guaranteed money that Buxton will receive.  (Interestingly, Nimmo and Buxton are more comparable than one might think, in terms of fWAR.)
  • Cardinals prospect Ian Bedell is set to make some light throws off a mound this week, according to Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This marks Bedell’s first work off a mound since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and the 22-year-old has been able to continue his rehab normally with minor league staff, as Bedell and minor league team personnel aren’t subject to the lockout.  The right-hander is tentatively still on schedule to return to action by May 2022, as Bedell is eager to resume a pro career that has already been set back by the pandemic and now his TJ procedure.  Bedell was a fourth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2020 draft, and he tossed only 2 2/3 innings for the team’s high-A affiliate before being shut down for surgery last season.

Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Matzek, Schmidt

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A dead arm kept Max Scherzer from pitching in Game Six of the NLDS, which Scherzer believes was due to pitching fewer innings in the lead-up to the postseason.  However, as the ace right-hander told Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times, Scherzer doesn’t hold the Dodgers at fault for the situation, nor was the postseason a factor in his decision to sign with the Mets rather than return to Chavez Ravine.  The Dodgers tried to limit their starters’ innings in order to keep them fresh for October, and Scherzer went into the playoffs assuming (and he told the club as much) that he was able to keep up the same workload as in 2019, when he helped lead the Nationals to the World Series.  But, he and the Dodgers “never took that variable into consideration” of how pitching less heading into 2021 postseason would impact his arm.

“I bear more brunt of that because of me having those discussions with [manager Dave Roberts] about that, about how I can be used in the postseason and coming up short on that, on my end, of saying I can do something and then it didn’t happen,” Scherzer said.  He also noted that his upcoming free agency didn’t weigh into his scratched start: “It’s literally my arm’s health.  When you can’t throw, you can’t throw….Throwing in Game 6, I would’ve been rolling the dice on sustaining a substantial injury.”

More from other pitchers around the game…

  • Tyler Matzek didn’t appear in a single big league game from 2016-19, as the southpaw found his career all but halted due to control issues and a case of the yips.  It took a long time and a lot of work for Matzek to feel comfortable on and off the field, as The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter Conn details, but Matzek returned to become a strong contributor out of the Braves bullpen over the last two seasons, culminating in his role in Atlanta’s World Series title.  While Matzek’s control issues haven’t entirely gone away (he has a 12.2% walk rate in 2020-21), he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 31.2% strikeout over 92 regular season innings, plus an excellent 1.48 ERA over 24 1/3 postseason frames.
  • One of the Yankees’ more prominent pitching prospects, Clarke Schmidt’s big league career has been limited to 12 2/3 innings, due in large part to an elbow injury that sidelined him for much of 2021.  “It just didn’t respond like we expected it to and it took forever for it to get right,” Schmidt tells The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler about his injury, an extensor strain that Schmidt described as “basically the same thing as tennis elbow.”  Once finally recovered, Schmidt was able to pitch 38 innings of minor league ball and then 6 1/3 innings with the Yankees at the MLB level, and most importantly he says he is feeling healthy heading into the 2022 campaign.  Some adjustments have already been made to his offseason training plan, however, as Schmidt feels that overwork led to last year’s injury.  “I just pushed the gas pedal a little bit too much too early and I learned my lesson,” he said.  It seems like that New York will start Schmidt in Triple-A to give him a bit more seasoning (he has only 25 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball under his belt), but for a Yankees club that can always use pitching depth, Schmidt could be an important arm to watch as the season proceeds.

Transaction Retrospection: The Pirates Take Roberto Clemente From The Dodgers In The Rule 5 Draft

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Though the lockout prevented the Rule 5 Draft from taking place in its usual December timeslot, the R5 will happen at some point once the transactions freeze is over, thus continuing one of baseball’s oldest traditions.  At a time when competitive balance is at the forefront of labor talks between the league and the MLBPA, the Rule 5 Draft has long served as a vehicle for players to gain opportunities on new teams, and to prevent clubs from hoarding young talent.  While the specifics and procedures of the event changed greatly over the years, the Rule 5 Draft has existed in one form or another since 1892, becoming a staple of the offseason even if often overshadowed by bigger winter transactions featuring proven MLB stars.

And yet, the Rule 5 Draft tends to jump into the headlines whenever one of the picks ends up becoming a notable contributor to his new team.  Last year’s draft, for example, was a particularly strong class that saw Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), and Tyler Wells (Orioles) all deliver strong rookie seasons.  Both the modern rules of the draft and the increased focus on prospect value make it less likely that a true superstar minor leaguer will slip through the cracks of the Rule 5, though that doesn’t stop teams from dreaming that just maybe, their next Rule 5 pick will end up being the next Roberto Clemente.

Like clockwork, Clemente’s name is inevitably mentioned every year around Rule 5 time, as the Pirates legend is certainly the most prominent player to ever be selected in the relative modern era of the R5.  (Hall-of-Famers Christy Mathewson and Hack Wilson were also Rule 5 picks, though both players had already debuted in the majors prior to their selection.)  Even in Clemente’s day, the Rule 5 Draft’s procedures were different than they are now, as Clemente was eligible to be selected due to his status as a “bonus baby.”

From 1947 to 1965, MLB had a rule in place stipulating that if any amateur player signed a contract with a bonus greater than $4K, that player had to remain on his team’s big league roster for two full seasons.  If that player wasn’t on his new team’s active roster, he was eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

This is exactly what happened to Clemente, signed by the then-Brooklyn Dodgers in February 1954 at age 19.  Signed for a $10K bonus and a $5K salary, that type of money in 1954 alone put Clemente on the radar of other teams, and international scouts were already well aware of Clemente’s potential.  The Braves reportedly offered Clemente a much larger bonus, but he opted to stick with the Dodgers since he had already verbally agreed to their deal.

However, even with all of this known interest in Clemente, the Dodgers didn’t put him on their 25-man roster.  Brooklyn had won the last two National League pennants, and with the team aiming to finally break through and win the World Series, the Dodgers felt they couldn’t afford to have an untested rookie filling a roster spot.  Clemente was instead assigned to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Montreal, as the Dodgers seemingly just crossed their fingers that they could sneak him through the Rule 5 field.

In a 2019 piece for The Athletic, Stephen J. Nesbitt unraveled some of the mythology surrounding Clemente’s brief Dodgers tenure.  The popular version of the story is that Montreal tried to shield Clemente from rival scouts by limiting his playing time and benching him whenever he had a good game, or removing him from the lineup if he had a big hit early in a game.  However, SABR researcher Stew Thornley noted that the right-handed hitting Clemente was almost never deployed against right-handed pitching, so a strict platoon could have been more to blame for Clemente’s lack of playing time than any attempt from the Dodgers to try and “hide” him.

Besides, while Clemente hit only .257/.286/.372 in his 155 plate appearances with Montreal, his raw ability was hard to miss.  (Clemente was also on fire while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico around the time of the R5.)  The Pirates took clear notice, and since they had the first pick of the 1954 Rule 5 Draft, Clemente was quickly Pittsburgh-bound that offseason.  If the Dodgers’ strategy was indeed to just hope that other teams would ignore such a prominent prospect, the bet didn’t pay off.

As Nesbitt notes, longtime Dodgers GM Buzzie Bavasi has told a few different stories in regard to why or how Brooklyn lost Clemente, such as Pirates GM Branch Rickey backing out of a gentleman’s agreement to not take Clemente in the Rule 5 Draft.  In another version, Bavasi claimed the Dodgers signed Clemente solely to keep him away from the arch-rival Giants, and eventually direct him via the R5 to an also-ran team.  Bavasi also said in an e-mail to Thornley in 2005 that Jackie Robinson personally told the front office that adding Clemente to the team and removing a white player from the roster “would be setting our program back five years.”

All of Bavasi’s claims seem to only generate more questions than answers, and yet the end result was still Clemente in a Pirates uniform.  In the short term, losing Clemente didn’t hurt the Dodgers, as the team continued being a perennial contender and won four World Series titles between 1955-65.  As well, Clemente took some time to fully adjust to the majors, hitting a modest .289/.311/.395 with 26 home runs over his first five seasons and 2560 plate appearances with Pittsburgh.

Needless to say, however, Clemente is an awfully big “one that got away.”  One can only imagine how much more successful the Dodgers would have been with Clemente in their lineup, especially after he broke out into true stardom.  From 1960-72, Clemente hit .329/.375/.503 with 214 home runs while playing peerless right field defense and unleashing arguably the best outfield throwing arm in baseball history on many a hapless baserunner.  If Bavasi did count on Clemente being suppressed on a losing team, that plan backfired — the Pirates ended becoming much more competitive during Clemente’s tenure, highlighted by World Series championships in both 1960 and 1971.

It could be that losing Clemente inspired the Dodgers to take a bit more care with their next “bonus baby” player.  The next season, Brooklyn signed another promising youngster to a hefty $14K bonus and stuck with him on the MLB roster for the next two seasons.  Like Clemente, it also took this player some time to become a star, yet the Dodgers’ patience more than paid off as Sandy Koufax started dominating batters.

Clemente’s legend perhaps looms largest on December 31, as it was on this day in 1972 that Clemente and three other passengers died during a plane crash off the coast of Puerto Rico.  The flight was a relief mission intended to bring aid to Nicaragua following an earthquake, and Clemente wanted to personally supervise the delivery to ensure that the goods would reach their intended destination.  Clemente was only 38 years old at the time of his tragic passing.

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