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Angels Not Discussing Shohei Ohtani Trades At Present

By Darragh McDonald | November 1, 2022 at 2:26pm CDT

With the offseason fast approaching, MLB front offices have begun exploratory talks about potential trades. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that teams calling the Angels about two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani are finding that the Halos have “no appetite” for discussing such scenarios at present.

It’s no surprise that plenty of teams would be interested in Ohtani, after he showed that his 2021 MVP season was no fluke. A year ago, he hit 46 home runs and threw 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to securing a unanimous MVP selection. This year, he took his pitching game to new heights, getting to 166 innings while lowering his ERA to 2.33. His offense took a bit of a dip, as he dropped to 34 homers in a similar number of plate appearances, but he cut his strikeout rate by more than 5% and had a better batting average.

That level of two-way production is perhaps unprecedented in all of baseball history, but certainly within the past century or so. Even Babe Ruth, who excelled at both hitting and pitching, didn’t really see those parts of his career overlap in the same way since he was a initially a pitcher who gradually took the mound less and hit more. Given Ohtani’s incredible and unique skillset, not to mention marketing opportunities, every team in baseball would surely love to have him on their roster.

In that case, it also stands to reason that the Angels would be loath to part with him. The fact that it’s even been a consideration is due to a few factors. First off, the team overall has been struggling of late, despite the contributions of both Ohtani and Mike Trout. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and haven’t made the postseason since 2014. Ohtani is also just a year away from free agency now and there haven’t any reports to suggest that there’s any momentum towards an extension. Furthermore, owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, casting a great deal of fog over the future of the franchise.

These factors put Ohtani in a situation somewhat analogous to that of Juan Soto, another superstar who once seemed untouchable in trades until he wasn’t. The circumstances weren’t exactly the same, since Soto still had 2.5 years of control at the time he was traded from the Nationals to the Padres. However, the team was unable to gain any traction in extension talks with Soto due to the uncertain nature of that franchise, which is also for sale. These comparisons have led to much speculation about Ohtani following a similar path, and the club even listened to offers at the most recent trade deadline. But even then, a trade seemed unlikely and all deliberations were reportedly kiboshed by Moreno.

With the hot stove about to warm up again in short order, the Ohtani rumors will surely follow, though it seems the club is not on the verge of anything. Martino’s report indicates that the Angels are rebuffing efforts to talk trade scenarios. Instead, it is believed they will try to explore an extension and, if unsuccessful, open up trade talks at next year’s deadline. We also can’t really rule out the scenario where the Angels are competitive next year and decide to keep him past the deadline. After all, they were neck-and-neck with the Astros through mid-May this year before a 14-game losing streak dealt them a gut punch that they never really recovered from. With a few improvements and some better luck next year, getting within striking distance of the expanded playoffs isn’t totally out of the question.

As for this offseason, it’s always possible that their approach could change as it progresses, for a number of reasons. If a sale of the club is finalized, perhaps the new owners will tip the scales one way or another. Maybe they will be interested in giving out a huge extension in order to keep a marquee player around, or perhaps they’d be prefer to try a rebuild and keep spending low for a while, as happened when the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group purchased the Marlins.

That is a great unknown which could potentially extend to the club’s other offseason efforts. As we saw with Soto, a murky franchise future can make a player reluctant to bind themselves into a situation they could later regret. Will that make it harder to get free agents to sign in Anaheim? If that is indeed the case, it will make it challenging for general manager Perry Minasian to improve a 73-win team in order to compete with the dominant Astros, ascendant Mariners and aggressive Rangers in the AL West.

Perhaps there are future scenarios where Ohtani becomes available. As we saw with Soto, a player is “untouchable” until everything aligns just right to make the unthinkable become reality. For now, it seems the Angels will kick any trade considerations down the road. But their hold on Ohtani lasts for just one more year, meaning something will have to give between now and then.

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Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani

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Chris Sale Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2022 at 1:16pm CDT

In one of the least-surprising opt-out decisions in recent memory, left-hander Chris Sale has informed the Red Sox that he will not exercise the opt-out clause in his five-year, $145MM contract, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

There’s never been any real thought that Sale was a candidate to opt out of the remaining two years and $55MM on that ill-fated extension. He pitched just 5 2/3 innings with the Sox this season and, over the first three years of the agreement, has tallied just 48 1/3 innings through 11 starts. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and thus missed the entirety of that year’s truncated season.

The recovery from that Tommy John procedure sidelined him into August of 2021, and his 2022 season was derailed by a series of bizarre injuries; Sale was shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. The Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.

It’s been a nightmare start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.

Looking ahead, the Sox have little choice but to hope Sale can get healthy and finally reclaim a spot near the front of their rotation. The lefty’s contract has zero trade value at present, and even if it did, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).

The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello could vie for a spot but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks). Righty Garrett Whitlock has obvious rotation potential but has thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Fellow righties Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski and Connor Seabold were all hit hard as rookies in 2022.

Suffice it to say, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all set to become free agents and Sale more or less a complete question mark, starting pitching will be one of the main focuses for the Red Sox this offseason. It won’t be their sole pursuit, however, as the Sox also potentially stand to lose Xander Bogaerts to free agency and still hope to extend slugger Rafael Devers, who is set to reach the open market following the 2023 campaign.

Including Sale’s weighty salary, the Sox have $86.72MM committed to next year’s books, although that’s counting a $20MM salary for Bogaerts, who is certain to opt out of his contract’s final three seasons. Boston also has nearly $40MM in projected arbitration salaries and is on the hook for some hefty contractual buyouts — most notably the $8MM yet owed to the since-released Jackie Bradley Jr. They’ll quite possibly be on the hook for James Paxton’s $4MM player option, which he’ll have the ability to exercise once the Sox make the easy call to decline his two-year, $26MM club option.

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Boston Red Sox Chris Sale

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Pohlad: “Totally On Board” With Re-Signing Carlos Correa

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2022 at 12:12pm CDT

Carlos Correa will become a free agent five days after the World Series draws to a close — the date on which a decision regarding his contract’s first of two opt-out clauses is due. Correa has already made clear that he plans to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM, returning to free agency, though he’s expressed a hope that he and the Twins can work out a long-term pact. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey acknowledged last month that the team had already had some dialogue with agent Scott Boras about a potential new deal, although obviously, no agreement has been reached.

For his part, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made clear in a recent interview with Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hopes to see Correa back in the fold next season and is very open to a new contract. “I’m totally on board with him coming back,” said Pohlad. “Definitely. Absolutely. I love the guy. He’s a huge asset and benefit to the team. But I don’t know how it’s going to go.”

While some Twins fans have perhaps been holding out hope for an extension before Correa’s opt-out date is due, that’s never felt especially likely, and Pohlad himself suggested that he expects Correa and Boras to test the market. Pohlad called Boras an “aggressive” agent and noted that it’s still too early to tell what sort of offers the market might yield.

At the time of the signing, the $35.1MM annual rate on Correa’s three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota was the fourth-largest AAV in Major League history. He reportedly sought more than $330MM over a deal of at least ten years last offseason, and while that might be an ambitious goal a year later and a year older, Correa will also enter the market with a new set of potential bidders and without the burden of a qualifying offer. The Dodgers, who largely sat out the shortstop market last winter due to Trea Turner’s presence, for instance, have already been linked to Correa before free agency even commences.

Regardless of whether the record-setting free-agent deal Correa sought last winter is there in the months to come, there’s still good reason to believe he can command a lucrative, long-term arrangement. On a rate basis, Correa’s 2022 season was largely in line with his 2021 performance.

This year’s .291/.366/.467 slash compares quite favorably to last season’s .274/.366/.487 slash.  By measure of wRC+, which weights for the leaguewide dip in power and a home park that wasn’t necessarily as friendly to Correa as Houston’s Minute Maid Park (and its short porch), Correa’s 2022 season was actually better: 140 to 133. Correa’s 89.9 mph average exit velocity was only a hair below 2021’s mark of 90.2 mph, and he actually improved upon his barrel rate (9.4% in 2021, 11.4% in 2022) and hard-hit rate (42.5% to 44.7%).

[Related: Minnesota Twins Offseason Outlook]

Correa’s defensive metrics took a major step back from his 2021 Platinum Glove showing, but year-to-year fluctuations in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average are fairly commonplace. That’s not to completely write off the struggles, and some teams may view them as a portent for further decline at the position. Even if that were the case, however, Statcast measures Correa’s arm as the sixth-strongest among all shortstops, averaging 88 mph per throw (and 14th among all non-first-baseman infielders). A move to third base, if ever needed, would likely be plenty feasible.

Setting aside Correa’s broader market appeal and turning back to the Twins, specifically, Minnesota has just $32.5MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books, plus another $36MM or so in projected arbitration salaries. Looking ahead to 2024, Byron Buxton’s $15MM base salary is the only notable guarantee on the books. There’s room for the Twins to make a market offer if Pohlad truly feels convicted in his comments regarding Correa, but it’s a fair question whether the Twins will be willing to outbid the field with a franchise-record deal when there are plenty of other needs on the roster — particularly on the pitching staff.

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Minnesota Twins Carlos Correa

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The Opener: World Series, Pujols, Orioles

By Nick Deeds | November 1, 2022 at 7:59am CDT

Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

As the calendar flips to November, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. World Series Game 3 Rained Out, Improving Philadelphia’s Pitching Matchups

Yesterday’s opener mentioned the availability of Phillies aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler among the biggest obstacles facing Philadelphia headed into their three game homestand, and that obstacle has been partially removed due to the postponement of last night’s game: Aaron Nola is now in line to start Game 4 tomorrow on regular rest, while Houston is opting to maintain their rotation order, leaving ace Justin Verlander to start Game 5 with an extra day of rest, the same decision the Phillies have made for Wheeler in Game 6, with Noah Syndergaard likely set to take Nola’s place starting Game 5, potentially allowing him to pitch deeper into the game than he would have if he had pitched last night, as previously planned. Tonight’s game will see lefty Ranger Suarez toe the rubber for Philadelphia opposite Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.

2. Albert Pujols Officially Retires

The retirement of Albert Pujols sees one of baseball’s all-time legends step away from the game, but it also poses a question that, as recently as this spring, would’ve been unexpected: How is St. Louis going to replace his production? Pujols slashed a phenomenal .270/.345/.550 in his final season, good for a 154 OPS+ that registers as his best mark since 2010, his age 30 season. Nolan Arenado declining to opt-out of his contract taking one major offseason question for the Cardinals off the table, but Pujols’s retirement combined with the impending retirement of longtime catcher Yadier Molina are going to leave St. Louis with plenty of work to do this offseason. After all, only Aaron Judge posted a better offensive season than Pujols in 2022 among pending free agents (min. 300 PA), and no catcher in baseball has the sort of illustrious reputation as a defensive catcher and game-caller that Molina has. Speculation has swirled early on in this this offseason connecting the Cardinals to the longtime catcher of their division rival Cubs, Willson Contreras. Contreras represents a particularly intriguing option for St. Louis, as he could help cover for the loss of both Pujols and Molina, giving the Cardinals a quality right-handed bat to slot into the DH slot on occasion while also shoring up a catching corps that includes Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera.

3. Orioles Have Infield Surplus Headed Into 2023

BaltimoreBaseball’s Rich Dubroff this morning discussed a coming logjam in the Orioles infield this offseason, suggesting that if no trades are made, Ramon Urias may be pushed into a utility role by the impending arrival of Jordan Westburg in addition to the presence of Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo. Dubroff notes that this ignores players such as Terrin Vavra and Joey Ortiz, who could be squeezed out of playing time if no changes are made to the infield mix. The Orioles stepping into the infield market as a seller hoping to acquire win-now pieces would be an interesting development, with pitching being the clearest need for a team that lost John Means to Tommy John surgery early this year and had just one starter who made at least 20 starts with an ERA+ over 100. The Marlins stand out as a possible trade partner with their surplus of pitching, offensive woes, and tight budget, but there’s no doubt a variety of teams would be interested in adding a player like Urias should he hit the trade market.

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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals The Opener Albert Pujols Ramon Urias Willson Contreras

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By Mark Polishuk | October 31, 2022 at 9:48pm CDT

The Mariners finally ended their postseason drought, and took a step further in October with a dramatic sweep of the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.  Now, the Mariners are looking to shed their other ignominious label as the only one of the 30 MLB teams that has never reached the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodriguez, OF: $195MM through 2034 (based on multiple club and player options, deal could be worth up to $455MM through the 2039 season)
  • Luis Castillo, SP: $101MM through 2027 (conditional option for 2028, either a $25MM vesting option for Castillo or a $5MM club option for the Mariners)
  • Robbie Ray, SP: $94MM through 2026 (Ray can opt out after 2024 season)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $41MM through 2026
  • Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $24MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Evan White, 1B: $20MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; Mariners also hold $11MM club option for 2027 with $1MM buyout, and $12.5MM club option for 2028 with $1MM buyout)
  • Marco Gonzales, SP: $18.5MM through 2024 (no buyout on $15MM club option for 2025)
  • Jesse Winker, OF: $8.25MM through 2023
  • Chris Flexen, SP/RP: $8MM through 2023
  • Andres Munoz, RP: $6MM through 2025 (Mariners hold club options worth $6MM in 2026, $8MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Luke Weaver (5.112): $3MM
  • Tom Murphy (5.092): $1.9MM
  • Diego Castillo (4.118): $2.9MM
  • Paul Sewald (4.072): $3.6MM
  • Ryan Borucki (4.066): $1.1MM
  • Casey Sadler (4.035): $1.025MM
  • Dylan Moore (4.000): $2MM
  • Erik Swanson (3.096): $1.4MM
  • Luis Torrens (3.091): $1.2MM
  • Ty France (3.089): $4.7MM
  • Abraham Toro (2.149): $1.4MM
  • Kyle Lewis (2.146): $1.2MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Murphy, Borucki, Sadler, Torrens

Other Financial Commitments

  • $3.75MM owed to the Mets as part of the December 2018 Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade

Total 2023 commitments: $96.125MM
Total future commitments: $536.07MM

Free Agents

  • Mitch Haniger, Carlos Santana, Adam Frazier, Matt Boyd, Curt Casali, Tommy Milone

The Mariners got a jump on some offseason business in August and September when Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo were both signed to contract extensions.  Since 2022 was only Rodriguez’s rookie season, there was less urgency to lock up the burgeoning superstar immediately, and yet the complex and potentially record-setting deal (that could span most of the next two decades) underlined the Mariners’ commitment to Rodriguez as the new face of Seattle baseball.

Castillo would’ve been a free agent after the 2023 season, and in signing him through at least the 2027 season, Seattle doubled down on its commitment to the right-hander after already paying a big prospect price to acquire him from the Reds at the trade deadline.  Extending Castillo also represents the Mariners’ latest investment in their starting rotation, which now consists of two high-paid stars (Castillo and Robbie Ray), two homegrown talents in their pre-arbitration years (George Kirby and Logan Gilbert), and two veterans on reasonable contracts (Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen).

Of course, Flexen wasn’t a starter for much of the second half, as he was moved to the bullpen once Castillo came aboard.  He still amassed enough innings to hit a vesting threshold in his initial two-year, $4.75MM deal with the Mariners, thus assuring Flexen of an $8MM salary in 2023.  Flexen and Gonzales have pretty similar profiles as low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurlers, though Gonzales has a much more established track record of limiting hard contact, as well as just a longer track record as an established Major League starter.

With six starting candidates for five rotation spots, it can be assumed that Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby aren’t going anywhere.  That leaves Gonzales and Flexen as possible trade candidates if the M’s did want to deal from this apparent surplus, and Flexen already reportedly received some interest from other teams prior to the deadline.  Flexen is the younger and less expensive of the two, and had a 3.73 ERA/5.00 SIERA and 0.7 fWAR over 137 2/3 innings in 2022, while Gonzales had a 4.13 ERA/4.99 SIERA and only 0.1 fWAR in 183 frames.  Those numbers slightly favor Flexen, but as his SIERA implies, the advanced metrics weren’t impressed with his work last year.

Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, and Bryce Miller represent Seattle’s next wave of young pitchers, with all three expected to make their Triple-A debuts to start off the 2023 season.  If all goes well, at least one of those prospects could be ready to jump to the majors later in 2023, perhaps becoming a new sixth starter/swingman type in their first taste of the big leagues.  Or, the Mariners could possibly acquire a veteran for such a role in the offseason, if one of Gonzales or Flexen was traded.

The other option, naturally, is for the M’s to just stand pat with what is already a strong rotation mix.  The Mariners got an unusual amount of good fortune with the health of their starting pitchers in 2022, and they might just want to keep both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold as additional depth, considering how rare it is for a team to dodge the injury bug for two straight years.

Then again, it’s also pretty rare for a team to post consecutive years of dominance in one-run games.  The Mariners followed up their 33-19 mark in one-run games in 2021 with a 34-22 record last season, defying the conventional wisdom that teams “should” generally finish around .500 in such close contests.  Seattle again beat those odds thanks in large part to an outstanding bullpen that should return mostly intact.

The unpredictable nature of relief pitching means that probably not all of Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, and Matt Brash will continue to pitch as well as they did in 2022, yet that is still quite a core group to have in place as the Mariners look for a few more reinforcements.  Trading from that group is also a possibility, as just like with the rotation, the Mariners’ pitching depth gives them some leverage in exploring deals.  As noted, any of the top prospect starters could also break into the majors as relievers, adding more depth to the pen.

In terms of big-league additions, the M’s already made a move by claiming Luke Weaver off waivers from Kansas City.  Weaver’s first full season as a relief pitcher resulted in a 6.56 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with the Royals and Diamondbacks, but his advanced metrics indicate that Weaver was quite unlucky to post such an ugly ERA.  There isn’t much left-handed depth in the relief corps, though the M’s could at least tender Ryan Borucki a contract and keep him around.  Seattle is also likely to explore re-signing Matt Boyd after he delivered some solid late-season work, but Boyd might prefer a clearer path to a starting job now that he is further removed from his September 2021 flexor tendon surgery.

While the Mariners have one of the more stable pitching situations of any team in baseball, their lineup has several question marks.  Improving the position-player mix will surely be the priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto this winter, and given Dipoto’s signature aggressiveness, nothing can be ruled out.  Signing a major free agent, trading pitching for hitting, trading a younger position player for a more established bat — all of these options and more could be on the table.

There should be a good amount of payroll space to work with, as Roster Resource projects the M’s around $131.5MM in 2023 player payroll (including arbitration estimates), with probably a few million to be shaved off that total via non-tenders.  This leaves Dipoto with plenty of spending capacity before he even reaches the Mariners’ team-record $158MM payroll from 2018, and it also seems quite possible ownership might provide some more funds to help keep the playoff revenues rolling.  Swapping Gonzales or Flexen would be a way of reallocating some money that is already on the books, and the Mariners could perhaps take a flier on another undesirable contract by trading Evan White, who no longer seems to be in the team’s long-term plans.

For a 90-win team, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of positions settled heading into 2023.  Rodriguez will play center field, J.P. Crawford will ostensibly play shortstop (more on that later), Ty France is slated for first base, Eugenio Suarez for third base, and Cal Raleigh slugged his way into establishing himself as the starting catcher once Tom Murphy’s season was cut short by shoulder surgery.  Either Murphy or Luis Torrens could be non-tender candidates, as neither can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

Jesse Winker will receive at least a share of everyday duty in left field, though he will be trying to re-establish himself after an underwhelming first season in Seattle.  Winker hit only .219/.344/.344 over 547 plate appearances, with a reversal of his career-long splits; he struggled badly against right-handed pitching in 2022, while actually posting decent numbers against southpaws.  If Winker can regain his old form next season, that would alone help the Mariners add some more pop to the batting order, though his struggles were somewhat mitigated by Suarez (also acquired from the Reds in basically a salary dump as part of the Winker trade) rediscovering his hitting stroke once joining the M’s.

Between Winker, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Sam Haggerty, and utilityman Dylan Moore, the Mariners may have plenty of options for the corner outfield positions….or none, at least for a team that hopes to contend.  Lewis is still working his way back from a torn meniscus in 2021, and while he hit well in Triple-A last year, he struggled over 62 PA in the majors.  Trammell is only 25 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, and he did manage roughly league-average offense in a part-time role last season, but it remains to be seen if he still grow into being a lineup regular or if he might be a fourth-outfielder type.  Haggerty might have hit his own fourth-outfielder ceiling, though he did play quite well in part-time duty in 2022.  Kelenic is a former consensus top-10 prospect, but he has looked totally overmatched at the plate in 558 PA at the big league level.

There is enough potential in this group that the M’s could just roll the dice and hope at least one player breaks out as a reliable everyday option to slot alongside Rodriguez.  As such, Dipoto might wait until closer to the trade deadline to see if any upgrades are necessary to the outfield or DH spot.  Carlos Santana might not be re-signed after posting middling numbers in 2022, and Seattle could just cycle several players into DH duty unless a more consistent bat is needed.

Trading from this outfield group is another possibility, if the Mariners perhaps tried to package one or two of the controllable outfielders to a rebuilding team with an established veteran available.  Such a deal could conceivably happen with or without Mitch Haniger re-signing, though a reunion with Haniger could be the smoothest answer.

Haniger carries plenty of injury baggage.  He missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 recovering from a ruptured testicle, core muscle surgery and back surgery.  He was then limited to only 57 games in 2022 due to a high ankle sprain (which required a 60-day injured list stint) as well as a two-week absence recovering from COVID-19.  With this recent history in mind, Haniger could be a candidate to accept a qualifying offer, except the Mariners may not want to offer $19.65MM on a one-year deal.  Not issuing a QO, of course, would mean the Mariners wouldn’t get any compensation if he signed elsewhere, and any number of teams will surely have interest in adding Haniger to their rosters.

Seattle might also explore other free agent outfielders beyond Haniger, in search of a player who could provide somewhat comparable offense on a less-expensive one-year deal than the cost of a qualifying offer.  On paper, the M’s have the need and the payroll flexibility to be part of the Aaron Judge conversation, and it’s probably safe to assume the team will check in with Judge’s representatives.  But, there’s a reason Dipoto is known as “Trader Jerry” as opposed to “Signer Jerry” — the executive generally turns to the trade market to make his biggest moves, rather than any huge splashes in the free agent pool.

Then again, Ray was signed for $115MM last winter, which already signals a change in Dipoto’s preferred player-acquisition strategy as the Mariners move into win-now mode.  Dipoto has already indicated he plans to explore the shortstop market this winter, with such notables as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson headlining a deep class.

The catch is the M’s might not necessarily be viewing any of these shortstops as shortstops, since Dipoto’s stated “great preference” is to keep Crawford at shortstop and use any new infielder as a second baseman.  This seems to close the door on the chances of Adam Frazier being re-signed, which isn’t surprising since the former All-Star struggled through a rough 2022 season.  It also reaffirms the Mariners’ commitment to Crawford, who was already signed a contract extension back in April.

Dipoto was also adamant last winter that Crawford was Seattle’s everyday shortstop, which seemed to somewhat limit the Mariners’ involvement in last offseason’s deep shortstop class, even though the M’s did have interest in such players as Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.  It is worth noting that Dipoto’s most recent statements seemed at least a touch less committed to Crawford as a shortstop, saying “we’re not going to close the door to anything in that regard,” and that Crawford “does a very good job in anything that we asked him to do.”

Moving Crawford to second base could be the more logical move.  MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this subject in greater detail back in August, as Crawford’s glovework declined sharply in the view of public defensive metrics (-11 Outs Above Average, -3 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.9 UZR/150).  Crawford was dealing with some knee problems last year and therefore might perform closer to his 2020 Gold Glove form when healthy, but a shift over to second base would also help him from a defensive perspective.

Internal options like Moore, Abraham Toro, or even Haggerty and France could help out at second base in a pinch, yet the keystone definitely seems like the Mariners’ top need on the diamond.  If the M’s don’t move Crawford or can’t convince one of the big free agent shortstops to change positions, another route would be to just sign a proper second baseman.  Brandon Drury and former Mariner Jean Segura (if the Phillies decline their club option on Segura) could be targeted, or Seattle could gauge trade possibilities with middle-infield heavy teams like the Guardians, Reds, or Cardinals.

For a team that thrived on its success in tight games, there is some irony in the fact that the Mariners lost all three ALDS games to Houston by a combined total of four runs.  The M’s are hoping the narrow nature of that series is an omen of how they’re starting to close the gap with the Astros for AL West supremacy, and the 2022-23 offseason could be one of the most important in franchise history as Seattle might be a few finishing touches away from a championship contender.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

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White Sox Have Interviewed Carlos Mendoza

By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2022 at 8:10pm CDT

8:10pm: Mendoza actually interviewed with the White Sox nearly two weeks ago, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports (via Twitter). He has not had a second interview, although there’s no indication to this point that he’s squarely out of the running.

9:27am: The White Sox have gotten permission to interview Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza in their managerial search, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). It isn’t clear whether Mendoza has already sat down with Chicago brass or is planning to over the coming days, but he marks a new entrant into the mix.

Mendoza, 42, has spent more than a decade in the coaching ranks. A Venezuela native, he began his career as a player in the Giants system back in 1997. He played professionally for 12 years in the San Francisco and Yankees organizations, briefly topping out at Triple-A. After the 2009 campaign, he transitioned into coaching in the New York farm system. He spent the 2011-12 seasons managing at the lower levels of the organization, and he worked his way onto the MLB coaching staff by 2018.

Over the past five seasons, Mendoza has worked on manager Aaron Boone’s staff. He broke in as an infield instructor and was bumped up to bench coach going into the 2020 campaign. A year later, he got looks from the Tigers and Red Sox in their managerial searches. Those respective positions ultimately went to A.J. Hinch and Alex Cora, but Mendoza was reportedly among the final five under consideration for the Boston job.

The White Sox are the only team without a manager currently in place. Tony La Russa held the position for the past two years, but he stepped away from the team late in the season due to health concerns and subsequently announced he wouldn’t return to the role in 2023.

Thus far, Chicago is known to have interviewed bench coach Miguel Cairo (who served as interim manager for the stretch run while La Russa was out), Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, Astros bench coach Joe Espada and former Chicago bench boss Ozzie Guillén. They’ve also been tied to Braves third base coach Ron Washington, although it isn’t known if the sides officially sat down at any point.

It seems they’ve started to narrow down their list of potential candidates. Over the weekend, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reported that Espada was no longer in consideration. Heyman adds that Washington and Guillén are also unlikely to land the position at this point.

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Chicago White Sox New York Yankees Carlos Mendoza Ozzie Guillen Ron Washington

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Albert Pujols Officially Files For Retirement

By Simon Hampton | October 31, 2022 at 7:45pm CDT

Future Hall of Fame slugger Albert Pujols has officially signed his retirement papers today, ending his glittering 22-year career, per Mark Feisand of MLB.com. Pujols had already announced 2022 would be his final season, but after a resurgent final year for the Cardinals this news confirms he won’t be back.

Pujols will go down as one of the sport’s greatest sluggers, having mashed 703 home runs over his career, which included three MVP awards and eleven trips to the All Star game. The 42-year-old enjoyed a stunning final season in St Louis, the city he spent much of his career, hitting .270/.345/.550 with 24 home runs, enough to become just the fourth player in history to join the 700-club.

Pujols was drafted in the 13th round of the 1999 draft by the Cardinals, and made his debut in 2001. He began mashing immediately, hitting .329/.403/.610 with 37 home runs on the way to a Rookie of the Year award and a fourth place finish in NL MVP voting. That would set the tone for one of the great slugging careers, as Pujols continued to terrorize National League pitchers over the next decade in St Louis. Between 2001-10, Pujols never finished a season with a batting average under .300 or a home run total under 30, and only had one sub-.400 OBP season. Over his first eleven seasons with the Cardinals, he amassed a staggering 86.6 bWAR, and firmly entrenched himself as a St Louis legend and a great of the sport.

He inked an extension with the Cardinals in 2004 for $111MM which proved extremely good business for the team, and delayed his free agency until after the 2011 season. Once on the open market, it was the Angels who secured his coveted signature, landing him on a ten-year, $240MM deal after the Cardinals topped out at a nine-year deal. At the time, it was the third largest contract in MLB history. While Pujols had a few years of strong production which earned him down ballot MVP votes, the deal was mostly a disappointment for the Halos and he was never the offensive juggernaut he was in St Louis. Pujols hit just .256/.311/.447 across ten years in Anaheim and was worth just 12.8 bWAR there.

The Angels finally cut ties with him in early in the 2021 season, and he landed with the Dodgers for the remainder of the year. There was speculation he’d retire after the 2021 campaign, but the Cardinals opted to bring him back for a $2.5MM farewell season, and he didn’t disappoint. He’ll be a favorite for NL Comeback Player of the Year and along with the pending retirement of fellow Cardinals’ legend Yadier Molina made 2022 a memorable season in St Louis.

His resurgent final season helped the Cardinals make the playoffs in 2022, but his career came to a close in a series loss at the hands of the Phillies in the wildcard round. Pujols didn’t hit much in that short series, but he was a dominant force in playoff fixtures over his career. In 88 post-season matches, he hit 19 home runs amid a .319/.422/.572 slashline. That included a combined four World Series home runs during the Cardinals’ championship years of 2006 and 2011.

While the formal confirmation of Pujols’ retirement is not a surprise, it does draw to a close the career of one of the sport’s great players. He’ll assuredly wind up in Cooperstown, but in the meantime, everyone at MLB Trade Rumors congratulates Pujols on his memorable career and wish him the best in retirement.

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St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols Retirement

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Kyle Hendricks Hasn’t Started Throwing; Still On Track For Spring Training

By Simon Hampton | October 31, 2022 at 7:10pm CDT

Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has still not begun throwing in his recovery from a mid-season capsular tear in his shoulder, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports. While the delay in his recovery is enough to cause some concern, Wittenmyer notes that there’s not yet reason to think that Hendricks won’t be ready for spring training. Hendricks was originally due to resume playing catch at the end of the season, but the plan is now to start that in November.

Hendricks posted a 4.80 ERA across 16 starts this season before going down with injury. Hendricks’ HardHit% soared in 2022, standing at 38.8%, well above his second highest mark of 33%, which occurred last season. As one would expect, that translated into a higher home run rate and Hendricks gave up almost one per start this season. It’s the second straight season that’s been the case, as Hendricks suffered from a lift in home runs on the way to a 4.77 ERA across 32 starts in 2021. Prior to that, Hendricks was an incredibly reliable arm for the Cubs, regularly hitting 30 starts and posting ERAs in the mid-to-lower threes.

While Hendricks has experienced some decline in recent years, he’s still a much-needed workhorse for the Cubs rotation. They’ll have veteran Marcus Stroman back next year as well as the impressive Justin Steele. Beyond that, Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski all showed varying degrees of promise to suggest they’ll feature in the rotation next season, but none can be reasonably pencilled in to make 30 starts. Steele, too, is no sure thing workload-wise having pitched a career high 119 innings in 2022, though the promise he showed in pitching to a 3.18 ERA with the peripherals to match suggest the Cubs will certainly be looking to get big innings out of him.

The uncertainty over Hendricks’ immediate future could provide further motivation for the Cubs to be active in the starting pitcher market this winter. A competitive Cubs team in 2023 probably already needed an arm or two in the rotation, and if Hendricks’ recovery is set back any further that need will only increase. Hendricks is owed $14MM in 2023, and has a $16MM team option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.

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Chicago Cubs Kyle Hendricks

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The Dodgers’ Looming Decision On Justin Turner

By Simon Hampton | October 31, 2022 at 5:45pm CDT

Since 2014, Justin Turner’s provided the Dodgers lineup with an elite bat and sound defense at the hot corner. Yet after a season that saw his output decline the veteran’s future in LA is up in the air. The Dodgers hold a $16MM team option for 2023 with a $2MM buyout, and according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, haven’t informed the 2022 winner of the Roberto Clemente Award of their decision yet.

It was a tale of two halves in 2022 for Turner. The buyout looked to be the heavy favorite at the All-Star break, as the 37-year-old posted just a .256/.331/.403 line with five home runs. It was vintage Turner after the break though, as he hit .319/.386/.503 with eight home runs to finish the season with 13 home runs and a .278/.350/.438 line. That still amounted to Turner’s worst offensive production since joining the Dodgers, but the strength of his second half has made the decision a tough one for the Dodgers’ front office. On the other side of the ball, Turner saw his defensive numbers decline, as he posted -2 Outs Above Average and -2.1 UZR. As a result, around half his appearances this season were at DH.

Turner’s option decision is, in fact, just one element of a complicated off-season for the left side of the Dodgers infield. The team will lose shortstop Trea Turner to free agency, while Max Muncy, who made 84 appearances at the hot corner, is under contract at $13.5MM. Muncy also scuffled at the plate in 2022, hitting .196/.329/.384 with 21 home runs but graded out better defensively with seven Defensive Runs Saved in 84 games at third base, and is also capable of manning second base.

The Dodgers may be hesitant commit $29MM to two players coming off of down years, particularly if they’re looking to make a serious bid to either re-sign their star shortstop or go after someone like Carlos Correa. Per RosterResource, the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll projects at around $176MM in 2023, though that’s before factoring in arbitration-eligible players. That leaves them with a fair bit of space to maneuver in before reaching this year’s mark, but the Dodgers do need to spend at the aforementioned shortstop position, solidify their rotation and they’ve been rumored to be in the market for Aaron Judge.

With that being said, it’s hard to imagine Turner in a different team’s uniform, and the Dodgers may well value his leadership and veteran presence enough that they bring him back, either via the team option or on a new, restructured contract. Plus, while Turner may be starting to decline, he’s still a productive player that was worth 2.4 fWAR in 2022. The Dodgers have until five days after the World Series to decide on Turner’s option, and while there’s a solid argument to be made either way, it still seems a good chance he’s back in Dodger blue in 2023.

Will the Dodgers pick up Justin Turner's team option?
No - but they'll re-sign him to a new contract 52.21% (3,731 votes)
No - he'll go to free agency 26.31% (1,880 votes)
Yes 21.48% (1,535 votes)
Total Votes: 7,146

Editor’s note: This post originally indicated Muncy’s option had yet to be exercised. The team preemptively exercised it in August when signing Muncy for an additional year.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Polls Justin Turner

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Cincinnati Reds

By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2022 at 3:58pm CDT

MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook for the Reds, Anthony Franco conducted a Reds-themed live chat. Click here to view the chat transcript.

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Chats

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