Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
It was another disappointing season for the Angels, who missed the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. Shohei Ohtani took an MVP-caliber step forward, while Jared Walsh became the newest member of the team’s enviable position player core. Yet again, the Angels are tasked with trying to build a passable roster to complement a few of the sport’s brightest stars. The issue, as is seemingly the case every winter: improving the pitching staff.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Trout, CF: $334.1MM through 2030
- Anthony Rendon, 3B: $190.9MM through 2026
- Justin Upton, LF: $28MM through 2022
- David Fletcher, 2B: $24MM through 2025 (contains buyout of 2026 club option)
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $5.5MM through 2022 (remains under team control for 2023 via arbitration)
Total 2022 commitments: $111.24MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Max Stassi — $2.7MM
- Mike Mayers — $2.2MM
- Phil Gosselin — $1.5MM
- Junior Guerra — $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Gosselin, Guerra
Free Agents
- Alex Cobb, Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Bundy, Steve Cishek, Juan Lagares, Kurt Suzuki, Dexter Fowler, Scott Schebler, Ben Rowen, AJ Ramos, Franklin Barreto
The first few days of the offseason has made the Angels’ top priority apparent. They’re looking to upgrade the starting rotation, and they’re setting their sights high. Los Angeles general manager Perry Minasian has gone on record a few times about his desire to land external pitching help, telling reporters at this week’s GM Meetings the goal is “to significantly improve our rotation.”
All things considered, this is a pretty good offseason to be on the hunt for high-end pitching. The free agent class offers a handful of hurlers who have top-of-the-rotation numbers in their recent past, and the Angels have already been linked to a few members of that group. They’ve expressed some early interest in a couple of aces coming off injury-wrecked seasons in Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard. The Angels haven’t been publicly linked to Carlos Rodón, but the former White Sox southpaw was one of the best pitchers in the league on an inning for inning basis before a late-season IL stint due to shoulder discomfort threw his market into flux.
All three of those players have the impact potential to which Minasian alluded, but health and/or age questions figure to limit the length of any commitment. That might be particularly appealing for the Angels, a team that — despite showing an overall willingness to spend on players — has concentrated their recent long-term investments on position players. Whether that’s happenstance, the preference of owner Arte Moreno or risk aversion on the part of erstwhile GM Billy Eppler isn’t clear. Minasian, a first-time GM hired last November, doesn’t yet have a large body of work to offer much insight into his team-building approach. He was hired out of a Braves’ front office that has generally preferred to offer high annual salaries over shorter terms, though. It remains to be seen if he’ll take a similar approach as his former employer in Anaheim.
If the Angels are willing to make a longer-term investment in a starting pitcher, there are plenty of options beyond Verlander, Syndergaard and Rodón. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are all top-of-the-rotation caliber arms at their best, and all three might top $100MM over a five-plus year term. Eduardo Rodríguez is a tier below those three but could land a significant four or five year deal of his own. And there’s almost nothing a team could do to more significantly upgrade their starting staff in 2022 than sign Max Scherzer, even if that’d probably cost them an all-time record average annual investment.
Free agency offers plenty of potential high-impact options, and the Angels will surely also work the trade market. The Reds might make Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray available; the Marlins are considering whether to trade away someone like Sandy Alcantara or Pablo López; the division-rival A’s are soon to slash payroll, so Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and/or Sean Manaea could wind up on the move. Between the healthy supply of starters available in either free agency or trade and the Angels’ obvious desire to upgrade, it’d register as a major surprise if they didn’t come away with at least one marquee pickup this winter.
One high-end starter might be all the Angels need, since they actually have one of their better collection of internal options in recent memory. They’ll obviously want to be careful with Shohei Ohtani‘s workload, but he’s a top-of-the-rotation type starter on an inning for inning basis. Patrick Sandoval broke out in 2021, working to a 3.62 ERA over 87 innings with one of the game’s highest swinging strike rates. His year ended early because of a back injury, but Sandoval has a 2022 rotation spot secured if healthy. That’s also true of lefty José Suárez, a ground-ball specialist who looks like a solid back-end type.
Add an impact external pickup to the mix, and four spots in Joe Maddon’s season-opening rotation are already accounted for. Top prospect Reid Detmers got his feet wet at the big league level this past season, and Jaime Barría and Griffin Canning could still compete for spots as well. Every team needs more than five or six starters to navigate a full season, and that’s especially true for an Angels club that needs to be careful in handling Ohtani. They’ve already been linked to mid-tier free agent starters like Steven Matz and Alex Wood, and those players would certainly add some stability. It makes sense to cast a wide net in the early stages of the offseason, but this isn’t a team that needs to build an entire rotation from scratch.
Of course, making multiple rotation additions could be a way to indirectly bolster one of the weaker areas of the roster — the bullpen. Angels’ relievers ranked 24th this past season in ERA (4.57), also finishing in the bottom half of the league in SIERA (4.10) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.2 percentage points). That’s in spite of an excellent season from closer Raisel Iglesias, whom they could lose to free agency. The Angels made Iglesias a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer, but he seems likelier to decline that in search of a multi-year deal as the top reliever in this year’s class.
The Angels could certainly pursue an Iglesias reunion even if he rejects the QO, but it remains to be seen whether they’d want to pay a top-of-the-market price to address the relief corps. They should have the payroll flexibility to be in that mix. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their current 2022 commitments around $130MM (non-tendering Phil Gosselin and Junior Guerra could knock that mark down a few million). That’s more than $50MM shy of the $182MM figure they carried into 2021 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), a franchise-record outlay. If Moreno’s willing to repeat this year’s level of spending, then the potential is there for a couple big free agent splashes.
Adding an impact free agent starter would probably account for at least half that available payroll space, though, and re-signing Iglesias on top of that might inhibit their ability to address the position player group. If Iglesias departs, the Angels would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B (around 70-75 overall) and could turn their attention to making one or two lower-cost bullpen pickups.
Other multi-year deal candidates who’d probably cost less than Iglesias include Kendall Graveman, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris, Mark Melancon and Ryan Tepera from the right side, with Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and Brooks Raley among the left-handed options. It seems likely they’ll add multiple arms to the ‘pen in some capacity, with Mike Mayers, Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren and José Quijada the only in-house options coming off seasons with 20-plus frames of sub-4.00 SIERA ball.
Much of the position player group is already set. Ohtani will be a middle-of-the-order presence at DH, leaving first base to Jared Walsh. They’ll have to hope for better health from Anthony Rendon at third base, and that’s obviously true of Mike Trout as well. Max Stassi had a breakout season behind the plate and probably earned the lion’s share of playing time at catcher, although the front office could look around for a low-cost complement, preferably one who hits left-handed. The non-tender market could shake out an affordable player who comes with multiple remaining seasons of team control, which could be particularly appealing since Stassi is slated to hit free agency after next season.
The most glaring need is in the middle infield. The Angels are committed to David Fletcher at one spot, although that’s more of a question mark than it’d have seemed a few months ago. By measure of wRC+, Fletcher was the majors’ second-worst qualified hitter after the All-Star Break. That dreadful few months left him barely above replacement level for the season, but he’d combined average or better offense with excellent defense from 2019-20. His track record will earn him another chance, and Minasian said after the season the club was open to him playing either of second base or shortstop in 2022.
The Angels can’t do much but hope Fletcher rebounds at one of those positions, but they’ll probably have to upgrade the other middle spot. Luis Rengifo and Jack Mayfield, the top in-house candidates, are better suited in utility roles. This winter offers an incredible collection of free agent middle infielders, although a run at any of Marcus Semien, Trevor Story or Javier Báez (to say nothing of top-of-the-market superstars Carlos Correa and Corey Seager) would add another huge multi-year investment to the books.
That shouldn’t be out of the question given the Angels’ previous levels of spending. They’re finally off the hook on the Albert Pujols contract, and the Justin Upton deal ends after next season. Trout, Rendon and Fletcher are already accounting for more than $81MM in 2023 and beyond, though, and a splash at the top of the free agent pitching market this winter would probably push their long-term commitments north of $100MM. Would they want to add another huge deal on top of that? That remains to be seen, particularly since they’ll probably earmark some funds for a hopeful Ohtani extension (more on that in a minute).
That could mean another year with a stopgap middle infield pickup. Last year’s José Iglesias addition didn’t pan out, but they could take a similar tack with Freddy Galvis at shortstop or Jonathan Villar, César Hernández or Josh Harrison at second base (with Fletcher sliding over to short). Perhaps the Cardinals and D-Backs would be willing to kick in some money to facilitate a trade involving Paul DeJong or Nick Ahmed, respectively. Neither would be the most exciting addition for Angels’ fans, but they’d at least meaningfully upgrade a defense that was among the league’s worst in 2021, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored in August.
It’d be a bit surprising if the Angels made a big addition in the outfield, since they have a promising group internally. Trout hasn’t played an inning outside center field since 2013, but there’s a case to be made for transitioning him into a corner spot moving forward. Public defensive metrics have pegged the three-time MVP as average or worse in center over the past couple seasons, and he’s now 30 years old coming off a major calf injury. Trout hasn’t rated disastrously in center field, and the Angels may not want to risk disrupting the future Hall of Famer for the sake of marginally improving the team’s defense. But rookie Brandon Marsh is probably a better defensive player than Trout is at this stage of their respective careers.
Regardless of the specific alignment, Trout and Marsh are probably going to play regularly in some capacity. That’s also true of former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s better suited in a corner. Upton fits best as a role player, although he still offers some power, particularly against left-handed pitching. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for outside help, but it’s not out of the question the Angels move one of Marsh or Adell for pitching. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins are known to be targeting controllable outfielders and might have interest in either player as part of a deal for one of their starters). If a Marsh or Adell trade comes to fruition, then perhaps the Angels poke around the free agent outfield market.
Hanging over all of the Angels’ potential offseason upgrades is the hope for a long-term deal with Ohtani. The 27-year-old had been a highly valuable, extremely entertaining player in years past, but he’d never put everything together quite like he did in 2021. An AL MVP finalist, Ohtani is coming off a season unlike any we’ve seen in nearly a century. In addition to top-of-the-rotation numbers as a pitcher, he was the game’s fifth-best qualified hitter by wRC+. His 46 homers ranked third leaguewide, while his .592 slugging percentage checked in fourth.
Ohtani’s an unprecedented player, at least in recent history, so there’s of course no contractual precedent for a player like this. He’s already controllable for the next two seasons, guaranteed $5.5MM next year and scheduled for a similarly-unusual trip through arbitration next winter. The Angels would no doubt love to keep him beyond 2023, and Ohtani has expressed some openness to that possibility. As of late September, the two-way star told reporters that no extension talks were ongoing. Neither Minasian nor Ohtani’s representatives at CAA Sports were willing to divulge anything during this week’s GM Meetings about whether negotiations had taken place since (link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com).
Whether or not they’ve begun any sort of negotiations, it stands to reason Moreno and Minasian will map out how far the organization is willing to go to keep Ohtani in the fold. Even if nothing gets done this winter, the possibility of future discussions could limit how much payroll the Angels are willing to commit to other areas of the roster for 2023 and beyond.
As is typically the case, it’s shaping up to be an interesting winter in Orange County. The Angels should be among the top suitors for any number of top-of-the-rotation options, and they’re strong candidates to come away with at least one marquee starting pitcher. Add some bullpen and middle infield pursuits and a potential one-of-a-kind extension negotiation, and Minasian should be in for a busy first full offseason leading baseball operations.
Brewers Hire Ozzie Timmons, Connor Dawson As Hitting Coaches
The Brewers announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Ozzie Timmons and Connor Dawson as co-hitting coaches. They’re also planning to hire an assistant hitting coach to work underneath Timmons and Dawson, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. They’ll replace Andy Haines, whose contract was not renewed last month.
Timmons has spent the past four seasons on the Rays’ coaching staff. He’d split his time between base coaching and serving as Tampa Bay’s assistant hitting coach before getting a bump to full-time assistant hitting coach last month. Just a few weeks later, he’ll land a more significant role in Milwaukee. An outfielder in his playing days, the 51-year-old Timmons appeared in parts of five big league seasons from 1995-2000.
Dawson comes over from the Mariners, where he’d been Seattle’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 28-year-old had previously spent a couple seasons coaching in the M’s system and now gets his first job on a big league staff.
Orioles Re-Sign Spenser Watkins
The Orioles have re-signed right-hander Spenser Watkins to a new minor league deal, MASNsports.com’s Melanie Newman reports (Twitter link). The contract contains an invitation to Baltimore’s spring camp.
Watkins elected free agency four days ago, shortly after the Orioles outrighted him off their 40-man roster. The 2021 season saw Watkins made his MLB debut, and the righty posted an 8.07 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for the O’s. Watkins started 10 of his 16 appearances, and pitched well over his first three starts before batters started adjusting in a big way. Watkins allowed 14 homers over his 54 2/3 frames, and had only a 13.7% strikeout rate.
Never a big strikeout pitcher even in the minors, Watkins has an 3.86 ERA over 625 1/3 innings of minor league work, mostly in the Tigers’ farm system before Detroit released him in 2020. Baltimore signed Watkins to a minors deal last offseason and he performed well enough at Triple-A Norfolk to finally get the call to the Show. The 29-year-old Watkins will likely continue to serve as rotation depth in the minors, though he’ll get a chance to compete for a roster spot at Spring Training.
Phillies To Hire Anirudh Kilambi As Assistant GM
The Phillies are hiring Anirudh Kilambi as the team’s new assistant general manager, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The 27-year-old Kilambi comes to Philadelphia after working as the Rays’ assistant director of baseball research and development, and according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, Kilambi will now oversee the Phils’ research and development division.
Kilambi began interning with the Rays front office in 2015, and worked his way up to his AD role in a little over three years’ time. In a piece from last August, Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times named Kilambi as one of the many organizational figures instrumental in the Rays’ ability to find and develop a seeming unending stream of quality relief pitchers.
As evidenced by the long list of Tampa executives who have gone on to lead or work within other front offices, teams are forever curious to learn some of the Rays’ secrets. If Kilambi can duplicate his magic in Philadelphia, it will be a particular boon to a team that has been plagued by a severe lack of reliable relief pitching in recent years.
Nationals Notes: Soto, Schwarber, Front Office
Before Juan Soto signs an extension with the Nationals, “the first thing that’s going to have to happen is that he knows that he’s working with an ownership that’s going to annually try to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters. “And then I think once he knows that, then he’ll be ready to sit down and talk whenever they choose to talk.”
Soto’s time in D.C. has already produced one World Series title, of course, and the Nationals have been one of the league’s better terms over the last decade, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo noted to Dougherty and company. That said, the Nats have also finished in last place in both seasons since that 2019 championship, and traded away a significant amount of veteran talent at the last trade deadline. It seems like the team will reload to some extent this offseason, but it is unclear whether or not the Nationals will make a full-on plunge to try and compete as soon as 2022.
Rizzo did make some indication towards a bigger push this winter, as when asked if he would like to see Kyle Schwarber back in Washington, Rizzo responded with “Why wouldn’t we? I love him.” (hat tip to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe) After being non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Schwarber signed in D.C. for a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money, but his price tag for a return will be much steeper after his huge bounce-back season. Bringing Schwarber back would be a clear sign of the Nationals’ intent to contend, and he would also give Soto some much-needed lineup protection.
Even amidst the team’s struggles in 2021, Soto continued to make his case as arguably the game’s best hitter. Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs over 654 plate appearances, and has now produced four all-world seasons before his 23rd birthday. Given Soto’s youth and his already-incredible production, it is very easy to imagine that a Soto extension would be the most expensive contract in baseball history.
Soto is projected to earn $16.2MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, a massive raise commensurate with his continued great numbers. Though Soto is still under arbitration control through 2024 as a Super Two player, “we’re not in the mind-set where we got him under control for three more years and have three years to wait. That’s not our view,” Rizzo said. The Nationals might not immediately jump into deep extension talks, however, as Rizzo said the club will wait until after the new collective bargaining agreement is settled “just to see what the rules are” for baseball’s business going forward.
In the more immediate future, Rizzo is focused on making another change to the Nats’ front office. In another piece from Dougherty, Rizzo said the team is going to hire a new director of player development, and candidates from both within and outside the organization will be considered. Assistant GM Mark Scialabba had been in charge of player development but will now move to the player personnel division, while former baseball ops coordinator John Wulf has been promoted to assistant director of player development.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays
The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal. On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”
Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer. Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter. As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.
Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter. Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers. While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.
The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami. Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.
Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines. Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere. Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.
Mets Still Targeting David Stearns After His Brewers Contract Ends
1:15PM: Stearns is “happily employed” with the Brewers, he told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Stearns also declined to clarify how many years or possible years may remain on his Brewers contract.
8:14AM: The Mets have twice been denied in their attempts to interview David Stearns about their president of baseball operations job, as Brewers owner Mark Attanasio declined the Mets’ requests both last season and earlier this offseason. However, the Mets are seemingly prepared to simply wait the Brewers out, as The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Britt Ghiroli, and Ken Rosenthal report that New York will approach Stearns about their front office vacancy next winter, when his contract with the Brewers may or may not be up.
In the interim, the Mets’ search has been focused on assistant general manager types, who would become the club’s GM in 2022. (Former Nationals AGM Adam Cromie has recently emerged as a favorite for the job.) Should the Mets’ plan to land Stearns come to fruition, Cromie or whomever ends up in the GM role would then become the ops department’s chief lieutenant to Stearns, who would carry the official PBO title and sit at the top of the Amazins’ decision-making pyramid.
It would make for an unusual dynamic for at least one season in the team’s front office, not that there has been much normalcy associated with the Mets’ very public search to date. Several potential candidates have already declined interviews with the Mets, quite likely because of the associated uncertainty. Looking it from the perspective of an assistant GM, if you’re comfortable with your current team, why take the risk of accepting what might be a one-year job, should Stearns (or another incoming boss that you aren’t familiar with) decides that they want their own handpicked GM as their top lieutenant?
Waiting for Stearns also carries its own set of challenges for the Mets. “Stearns has serious interest in the position,” Britton/Ghiroli/Rosenthal write, which isn’t really surprising given that Stearns grew up as a Mets fan in New York and even interned in the club’s front office in 2008. It could be that some unofficial back-channel communication may have already taken place between the two sides, though Stearns’ feelings about the job could change if and when he has a formal interview with team officials. (It can also be assumed that Attanasio would likely be on the lookout for any sort of early talks of any kind between Stearns and the Mets, should he feel tampering is taking place.)
Stearns has also enjoyed a lot of success in Milwaukee, and could prefer to remain with the Brewers on another contract extension, or perhaps even investigate a potential job opening with another team besides the Brewers or Mets. Plus, Stearns’ contractual situation is a little unclear. The Mets reportedly believe Stearns will be available next winter, though reports have suggested some type of vesting option could be in place for Stearns to remain with in Milwaukee through the 2023 season. If this option does exist and it vests, the Mets would find themselves putting their front office plans on hold for yet another season — assuming Stearns would remain at the top of their list, and another executive didn’t emerge in the interim.
Phillies Interested In Starling Marte, Aaron Loup
The Phillies have interest in center fielder Starling Marte and reliever Aaron Loup, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Since the outfield and bullpen are the top priorities for the Phils this winter, it isn’t surprising that Marte and Loup have gained the club’s attention. Among the several teams involved in Loup’s market, Heyman also notes that the Mets are looking into bringing Loup back to Queens for a longer stint after the southpaw dominated out of New York’s bullpen in 2021.
Marte is really the only true full-time center fielder in this year’s free agent class, though Marte’s 2021 numbers would’ve still put him at or near the top of a deeper center field market. Marte hit .310/.383/.458 with 12 home runs and a league-best 47 stolen bases over 526 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Athletics, despite missing about five weeks due to a fractured rib. Marte did benefit from a .369 BABIP, though his excellent speed and baserunning played a big factor in that extra batted-ball “luck.” His 8.2% walk rate was still below average, though also the best of Marte’s 10 big league seasons.
Reviews were a little mixed on Marte’s glovework, as Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4, though UZR/150 (+1) and Outs Above Average (+4) gave his center field defense positive grades. As Marte enters his age-33 season, however, he certainly still seems athletic enough to provide some quality help up the middle.
This is all music to the Phillies’ ears, considering the club has Bryce Harper and not much else in its current outfield mix. Both Andrew McCutchen and Odubel Herrera are free agents, and while Herrera had a pretty modest 2021 season, he was still the best of a revolving door of subpar options for the Phils in center. Installing Marte in center field and at or near the top of the Philadelphia lineup would fill a couple of major holes for the club.
Signing Marte would represent yet another big expenditure on the Phillies’ books, though president Dave Dombrowski had given some indication (“I don’t find it restrictive“) that ownership has given him some spending flexibility. With roughly $171.1MM committed to payroll in 2022, the Phillies could afford to give Marte a big contract and still have some significant room under whatever the luxury tax threshold ends up being next season. Or, the Phils might even be comfortable going over the tax threshold, as owner John Middleton has indicated in the past that he would be okay with paying the tax in the right circumstance.
Loup won’t cost anywhere near Marte’s price range, but after signing a one-year/$3MM deal with the Mets last winter, Loup is in line for a much more significant contract this time around. The veteran left-hander had one of the better seasons of any reliever in baseball, with a tiny 0.95 ERA over 56 2/3 innings out of New York’s bullpen. While Loup’s .229 wOBA far outpaced his .272 xwOBA, Loup also had a 50.4% grounder rate to go along with above-average strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.3%) rates.
Even if Loup pitches closer to his 3.32 SIERA next year, the Mets would certainly still like that kind of production back in their pen, and Loup would be even more of a boost to a Philadelphia relief corps that badly struggled in 2021. Loup doesn’t much closing experience, so while he isn’t the lockdown ninth-inning answer Dombrowski is looking for, Loup can at least help the Phillies take a lead into the ninth.
Tigers Interested In Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani
11:48AM: Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is also on the Tigers’ radar, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Like Gray, DeSclafani also didn’t receive a qualifying offer.
11:37AM: The Tigers have “early interest” in Jon Gray, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). Gray joins Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, and Detroit legend Justin Verlander as free agent pitchers linked to the Tigers’ search for a veteran arm or two to bolster their young rotation.
Given their interest in qualifying offer recipients Rodriguez and Verlander, it doesn’t appear that the Tigers are necessarily deterred by the idea of giving up draft pick compensation to make a big pitching signing, though Gray wouldn’t require any compensation since the Rockies (curiously) didn’t issue a QO to the right-hander. This surely gives Gray some extra appeal from Detroit’s perspective, though naturally the same could be said for many teams.
Gray only turned 30 last week, so if he does end up in the Motor City, he should have more prime years to contribute to a Tigers squad that is looking to get back into contention as early as 2022. Detroit is expected to spend some serious money this offseason, linked to the market for the big free agent shortstops as well as pitchers like Gray who could slot in near the front of the rotation. MLBTR projected Gray (ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) to land four years and $56MM in free agency, with Tim Dierkes predicting that Gray would in fact sign with the Tigers.
Signing a QO-rejecting free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. This would be either their second-round selection or their Competitive Balance Round B selection, depending on where Detroit is drawn in this year’s Competitive Balance Round lottery. It is also possible that the draft and compensation rules will be altered in the next collective bargaining agreement, so while the Tigers would surely still have to give up something as a penalty for signing a QO free agent, the specific nature of that compensation might not be known until the new CBA is settled.
Under the current rules, the Tigers would also have to give up their fourth-highest draft pick if they signed two free agents who rejected the qualifying offer. It can be assumed that Detroit would rather not surrender multiple picks if necessary, so if the Tigers did make a big splash and ink one of the QO free agents, it would make them even more focused on non-QO players like Gray for any other big signings.
As far as the Rockies’ own efforts to retain Gray, the club attempted to sign Gray to a three-year extension worth roughly $35MM-$40MM before the end of the regular season, but the righty rejected the offer. It doesn’t seem like any further negotiation has taken place, since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt told The Athletic’s Nick Groke that “there hasn’t been any conversation” with Gray’s camp since “the end of the season….[Gray’s agent] said they’d stay in touch. I assume they’re trying to figure out what the market is.”