Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens
A bad bullpen can play a major role in destroying a team’s playoff hopes, as we saw with last year’s Phillies. They finished a game behind the National League’s lowest-seeded playoff team, in part because their relief pitchers could not perform. Here’s how the Phillies and the game’s other four worst bullpens from 2020 (based on ERA) have tried to improve themselves since last season ended….
Phillies (7.06 ERA, 13.1 K-BB percentage):
- The Phillies might have broken their playoff drought last year if not for a bullpen that didn’t get much high-end production out of any of its regulars. New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld have gone to work to better the unit, having added several veterans – Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson, Chase Anderson, Hector Rondon, Neftali Feliz and Sam Coonrod, to name some – early in their regime. Some of those players aren’t on guaranteed contracts and will have to fight for spots this spring, but there’s no shortage of experience or success among most of the group.
Rockies (6.77 ERA, 8.8 K-BB percentage):
- Daniel Bard earned NL Comeback Player of the Year honors as a member of the Rockies, and Yency Almonte also put together a very good 2020. They’ll stick around this season, though no other returning Rockies relievers recorded good numbers over a solid amount of innings last year. There is some potential for the team’s bullpen production to get better in 2021, though. Mychal Givens, who has typically been a quality reliever, struggled in a mere 9 1/3 innings last season; Carlos Estevez, one of the Rockies’ most reliable relievers in 2019, put up an ERA north of 7.00 in 24 frames; and newcomer Robert Stephenson, whom the Rox acquired from the Reds earlier this offseason, was effective two years ago before falling off a cliff in 2020.
Mariners (5.92 ERA, 7.8 K-BB percentage):
- In light of last year’s issues, general manager Jerry Dipoto came into the offseason saying he wanted three to four new relievers. True to his word, Dipoto added to the Mariners’ relief corps with the likes of Rafael Montero, Keynan Middleton and Will Vest (Rule 5 pick), though the team can’t necessarily count on anyone from that group to fix its issues in 2021.
Red Sox (5.79 ERA, 13.2 K-BB percentage):
- The Red Sox made an unexpected trade with the enemy Yankees when they acquired righty Adam Ottavino from New York in a January salary dump. Ottavino, who will count $9MM against Boston’s luxury-tax bill in 2021, had a rough time last season, but the 35-year-old has typically been a solid option. Along with Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura (a former Nippon Professional Baseball hurler whom the Red Sox signed for a two-year, $3MM deal), Matt Andriese and Rule 5 selection Garrett Whitlock are newcomers to the group.
Marlins (5.50 ERA, 6.7 K-BB percentage):
- No bullpen had a lower K-BB percentage in 2020 than the Marlins, who have made a legitimate effort to better their late-game situation since then. They cut ties with Kintzler, but they’ve added Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, Ross Detwiler, Adam Cimber, John Curtiss and Rule 5 pick Paul Campbell. They’re also bringing back Yimi Garcia, Richard Bleier and James Hoyt, who each helped the Marlins’ cause in 2020.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Padres?
The Padres and their fans endured a long period of suffering, but the club finally returned to relevance in 2020. With 37 wins in 60 games, the Padres posted the sport’s third-best record, broke a 13-year playoff drought and advanced to the NLDS, where they lost to the division-rival Dodgers. While the Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series, are the favorites to reign over the NL again in 2021, the Padres look as if they’ll put up an even bigger fight this year.
Not content to continue playing second fiddle to Los Angeles, San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller have been extremely aggressive in trying to improve their roster since the Dodgers crushed their championship hopes last fall. Dating back to then, the Padres have used trades and free agency to add a slew of notable names – Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Ha-Seong Kim, Mark Melancon, Victor Caratini and Keone Kela lead the way.
Darvish and Dinelson Lamet give the Padres two starters who were in NL Cy Young contention last season; meanwhile Snell’s a former AL Cy Young winner, Musgrove has shown that he’s a legitimate mid-rotation type and Chris Paddack, although he struggled last year, looked like a high-end starter just two years ago. If anything goes haywire with that group, the Padres could get help from prospects such as MacKenzie Gore (MLB.com’s sixth-ranked farmhand) and Adrian Morejon.
Offensively, Kim and Caratini should help a unit that finished third in the majors in runs last year, when the all-world left side of the infield of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge. They’re still around, as are infielder Jake Cronenworth, first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielders Trent Grisham and Wil Myers – who all enjoyed terrific years.
As is the case with their starting staff and offense, the Padres’ bullpen looks as if it has the potential to be a formidable group in 2021. However, they’ll need more from holdovers such as Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen and Tim Hill. And the Padres may miss Trevor Rosenthal, a late-season acquisition who left for the Athletics in free agency, but the Melancon and Kela additions ought to help. They’ll join holdovers Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson among the club’s preferred late-game choices.
All said, there isn’t much (anything?) to dislike about the Padres’ roster. The biggest roadblock may be that they’re still stuck in a division with the Dodgers, but PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021. How do you think they’ll fare?
(Poll link for app users)
How many games will the Padres win?
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Over 94.5 57% (8,381)
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Under 94.5 43% (6,214)
Total votes: 14,595
Minor MLB Transactions: 3/1/21
Catching up on the latest minor league transactions…
Newest Moves
- The Yankees announced that they’ve outrighted outfielder Greg Allen to Triple-A. Allen, whom the Yankees designated last week, will remain in MLB camp. The Yankees acquired Allen from San Diego in January, but he lost his roster spot when the team signed reliever Justin Wilson. Allen, 27, has batted .239/.298/.343 with eight home runs and 32 stolen bases in 618 plate appearances between the Indians and Padres.
Earlier Today
- The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Keury Mella has been outrighted to Triple-A, and assigned to the team’s Major League spring camp. Mella was designated for assignment earlier this week. The righty has been action in each of the last four MLB seasons, though only for 19 games and 27 innings with the Reds and D’Backs. After signing a minor league deal with Arizona last winter, Mella had a 1.80 ERA over 10 frames of work, with an even 10 strikeouts against three walks.
- The Red Sox outrighted Marcus Walden to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers, and Walden is remaining in Boston’s big league spring camp. Walden was designated for assignment last week to create a roster spot for the newly-acquired Marwin Gonzalez. A veteran of three MLB seasons and 106 innings in the Show, much of Walden’s experience (78 innings over 70 games) came during a workhorse of a 2019 season, as he posted a 3.81 ERA and 23.24K% out of the Red Sox bullpen. Walden struggled badly last year, however, with a 9.45 ERA over 13 1/3 innings and almost as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (10).
Lucas Giolito On Potential Extension
After a difficult start to his career, White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito established himself as a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter over the previous two seasons. The 26-year-old now looks like a long-term cornerstone for the franchise, though it doesn’t appear either side has aggressively pursued a contract extension.
“There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine,” Giolito, a CAA Sports client, told James Fegan of The Athletic. “I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”
Fortunately for the White Sox, they’re in no imminent danger of losing Giolito, who has three years of arbitration control remaining. However, they have shown in recent years that they’re willing to lock up their core players for the long haul. To name a few prominent examples, the team has signed shortstop Tim Anderson, third baseman Yoan Moncada, and outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to extensions dating back to 2017. Giolito certainly ranks up there with that group in terms of his importance to the club.
This year, Giolito will earn $4.15MM, which is a major bargain for what he has brought to the table dating back to 2019. While Giolito was one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018, during which he logged a 6.13 ERA/5.37 SIERA in 173 1/3 innings, the light bulb has since gone on for the former star prospect. Giolito notched a 3.43 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.6 percent walk rate across 249 innings over the prior two seasons, and he finished seventh in the American League Cy Young balloting a year ago.
NL Central Notes: Lauer, Cubs, Hoyer, Pirates
The shoulder impingement that slowed Eric Lauer last March was more serious than reported at the time, as the Brewers southpaw tells MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters that there was actually a tear to the shoulder capsule of his throwing arm, as later tests revealed. The shutdown allowed time for Lauer to recover physically, but he then missed two weeks of Summer Camp on quarantine after being in close contact with someone who was COVID-19 positive.
It all added up to a forgettable debut season for Lauer in Milwaukee, as he was rocked for a 13.09 ERA over just 11 innings. Acquired along with Luis Urias for Zach Davies and Trent Grisham in a November 2019 deal with the Padres, Lauer is looking to live up to his end of the trade return by matching or bettering his past numbers (4.40 ERA, 20.6K%) over 261 2/3 innings with San Diego in 2018-19. Lauer does have minor league options remaining, however, which could put him in line for some shuttling back and forth from Triple-A as the Brewers mix and match their starting pitchers to keep everyone’s arm fresh.
More from the NL Central…
- The Cubs‘ payroll situation has been a major focus of the offseason, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is “confident” the team would be able to add salary for midseason additions “if we play well and there’s clear things we need to do to add to the team.” As Hoyer told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters, however, much will depend on such uncertain revenue streams as the number of fans the team will be permitted to allow into Wrigley Field. The Cubs opened the winter in clear cost-cutting mode, culminating in the trade that sent Yu Darvish to the Padres, and Hoyer admitted that “we were probably on the more pessimistic side of things” in terms of payroll in the wake of the 2020 season. More recently, a modest spending spree for players on one- or two-year contracts does indicate some willingness on the team’s part to stretch the payroll, or as Hoyer put it, they became “more optimistic or less pessimistic” about their spending capacity.
- The Pirates overhauled their rotation in the offseason, and while they have a provisional starting five in place, most or all of the arms competing for jobs will probably end up getting starts this season, The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel writes. Apart from Tyler Anderson, none of the Bucs’ other starting candidates have pitched more than 157 1/3 innings in a season, so there will be plenty of need for multiple hurlers to cover innings as pitchers rebuild arm strength in the wake of the shortened 2020 season. “I think we’re talking about like 10 or 11 [pitchers],” Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin said. Considering how the Pirates remain open to trade ideas, it’s very possible that even more pitchers will be needed should the club move a veteran arm or two at some point prior to the trade deadline.
Royals, Hunter Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension
TODAY: The Royals have officially announced Dozier’s extension. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis (Twitter links) has the financial breakdown — Dozier will get a $1MM signing bonus, $2.25MM this season, $4.5MM in 2022, $7.25MM in 2023, $9MM in 2024, and there is a $1MM buyout on the $10MM club option for 2025. There are multiple escalators involved, including $1MM bonuses for various awards.
FEB. 28, 9:51AM: Dozier and the Royals are in agreement on a four-year, $25MM guarantee with a $10MM option for 2025, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). If Dozier reaches all available escalators and bonuses, it could max out at $49MM, Passan reports.
9:35AM: While the deal isn’t yet complete, there’s “optimism” it’ll get over the finish line, per Alec Lewis and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (via Twitter). If finalized, the guarantee is expected to land in the $25MM range, report Lewis and McCullough. The 2025 option would be worth $10MM, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
8:59AM: The Royals are finalizing a four-year contract extension with Hunter Dozier, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The proposed deal would also contain a club option for 2025, per Murray. Dozier is a client of The L. Warner Companies, Inc.
As a player with three-plus years of MLB service, the 29-year-old wasn’t set to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. Rather than proceed year-by-year through arbitration, the parties are locking in some cost certainty over the next three seasons while lengthening their relationship by at least one year. The deal will buy out Dozier’s first year of would-be free agency, while the club option adds a second additional season of team control.
Despite being selected eighth overall out of Stephen F. Austin University in 2013, Dozier had something of a slow ascent through the minors. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2016, but it wasn’t until the middle of the 2018 season that he had established himself as a big league regular.
Dozier struggled down the stretch as a rookie but seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order bat in his sophomore season. The right-handed hitter popped 26 home runs and hit .279/.348/.522 across 586 plate appearances in 2019. Dozier’s batted ball metrics reinforced that power output. His 91.1 MPH average exit velocity placed him in the 83rd percentile league-wide; Dozier’s hard contact and barrel rates were similarly impressive. A higher than average 25.3% strikeout rate and .339 BABIP hinted at some potential regression in future seasons, but Dozier’s power and decent plate discipline positioned him as an above-average offensive performer nonetheless.
The shortened 2020 season, however, proved a difficult one for Dozier. That was the case for plenty of players, but Dozier was one of the players most directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. He tested positive for the coronavirus last July and was forced to start the season on the injured list. Upon his return, he lacked the same power he’d shown the season before. Whether because of his bout with COVID-19 or merely due to the season’s small sample size (he tallied just 186 plate appearances), the Royals clearly feel Dozier’s .228/.344/.392 line was anomalous.
Regaining his footing at the plate is critical for Dozier, who’s rather limited defensively. He broke in as a third baseman, but defensive metrics panned his work at the hot corner from 2018-19. After signing Maikel Franco last offseason, Kansas City mostly limited Dozier to first base and the corner outfield in 2020. Franco is back in free agency, possibly bumping Dozier back to third this year (and perhaps beyond). At his age, it’s doubtful he transforms into an above-average defender at the position.
Last November, Dozier agreed to a $2.72MM deal to avoid arbitration. It remains to be seen if this extension changes that figure. At the moment, the Royals have around $90MM on the books for the upcoming season, right in line with last year’s payroll. Besides Dozier, only Whit Merrifield and recent free agent signees Carlos Santana and Mike Minor have guaranteed money on the books beyond 2021. That should leave plenty of long-term payroll space for the Royals, who will see Salvador Pérez and Jorge Soler reach free agency (barring extensions of their own) next offseason.
Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Latest Investment News, Closer Competition
Xander Bogaerts will take a couple games off to rest a sore shoulder, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Red Sox do not believe he should have any problem being ready for opening day. Bogaerts might be the most important position player on the roster, as Boston doesn’t have a ready-made everyday replacement for him at short. Christian Arroyo started one game there last season, but he hasn’t regularly played the position since 2017. Same basic story for Marwin Gonzalez, who is best served filling in elsewhere around he diamond. Jeter Downs can handle short, but Boston isn’t likely to begin his ML career as an injury replacement. Jonathan Araúz isn’t a sure thing to make the roster, but he could be the guy he if makes the team. Kiké Hernandez might be the best option on the roster. He has played a little shortstop every season going back to 2014, though he generally sat behind Chris Taylor on the depth chart as the primary backup. Now, more from Boston…
- The Fenway Sports Group is reviewing the details of a private investment offer by RedBird Capital that would raise their valuation to roughly $7.35 billion, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. FSG would remain a private company led by the current leadership group of John Henry, Tom Werner, and Michael Gordon. Managing Partner and CEO of RedBird Capital Gerry Cardinale – along with Billy Beane of the A’s – was a primary driver behind the recent RedBall SPAC (special interest acquisition group), which would have taken the company public. In this case, the roughly $750MM investment certainly helps in the big picture sense, but the Red Sox themselves aren’t likely to see much of an impact. The Fenway Sports Group has a number of properties, and this opportunity has further-reaching implications beyond, say, the Red Sox payroll. By taking the private investment route, Cardinale and RedBird would become a significant stakeholder, while FSG would get a cash influx to further their broader growth plans. Both FSG and RedBird have noted interest in expanding their holdings within the sports entertainment sector.
- Expect Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock to open the season in the bullpen. The Red Sox like what they’ve seen so far, and if he doesn’t make the team, they’ll have to return him to the Yankees. The additions of versatile bench options on the offensive end should allow the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher for much of this season, helping Whitlock’s chances of staying in Boston. In other bullpen news, Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino are competing for the closer role, though Ryan Brasier could have a hand in closing games as well, writes the Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Hirokazu Sawamura will not pitch in that spot, despite having some experience in the role.
East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals
Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard‘s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…
- Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
- Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.
NL Notes: Willis, Syndergaard, Myers
The Dodgers have hired Dontrelle Willis as a special assistant in the player development department. Willis made the announcement himself via Twitter, joking “Special assistant sounds dope even tho i don’t know what it means.” A veteran of nine MLB seasons, the D-Train is best remembered for his time with the Marlins from 2003-07, a stint that included NL Rookie Of The Year honors in 2003, a second-place finish NL Cy Young voting in 2005, two All-Star appearances, and a World Series ring with the Marlins’ 2003 championship team.
Still only 39 years old, Willis’ last MLB game was in 2011, though he kept pitching in the minors and in independent ball until 2015. He has since worked as a TV broadcaster since retiring, and Willis will now move into a front office role alongside a former teammate from the 2010 Tigers — Will Rhymes is entering his third season as the Dodgers’ director of player development.
More from around the National League as we head into March…
- Noah Syndergaard is making good progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Mets manager Luis Rojas and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The right-hander’s latest rehab step was throwing three sliders on Saturday, and Syndergaard has otherwise been participating in most normal workouts and baseball activities. This doesn’t mean his timeline has been pushed up, however, as Syndergaard’s target date for a return is still sometime in June, more than 14 months after his TJ procedure. Hefner sees the extended recovery time as a plus, describing the usual 14-15 month process as “good for the player, for their long-term success…making sure that you’re really locked in before the lights turn on and intensity goes up.”
- “It was fun to sit back on a team and I wasn’t in a trade rumor,” Wil Myers told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “It was cool to watch these trades unfold and they became my new teammates instead of guys I was traded for.” Myers been a constant on MLBTR’s pages over the years, thanks to two past trades and a number of other rumors, particularly last season when the Padres reportedly explored several deals to get Myers (and his contract) off the books in the wake of his lackluster 2019 season. In 2020, however, Myers rebounded to hit .288/.353/.606 with 15 homers in 218 plate appearances — the best overall season of his career in terms of pure production, with the caveat that it came during an abbreviated season. Myers still has $41MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal through the 2022 season, though that contract no longer looks quite as onerous as it once did, given both Myers’ production and the Padres’ willingness to spend big in pursuit of a title. “To sit back and know what this organization has been through, what I’ve been through, it’s really cool to sit here and see where we are in 2021,” Myers said.
NL Central Notes: Contreras, Mikolas, Brewers
Willson Contreras “wasn’t bothered at all” by trade speculation during the offseason, and if anything, the catcher was flattered by other teams’ interest. “The rumors didn’t bother me,” Contreras told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters. “It’s the other way — those rumors make me proud because of where I come from, everything that I’ve done to be where I’m at….I went through it relaxed because if I got traded, I know that I’m ready to play anywhere and everywhere.”
Like fellow Cubs teammates Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have stated in recent days, Contreras would welcome any extension talks with the team, saying “obviously, I’m willing to listen to whatever they have.” Baez and Bryant are entering their final season before free agency while Contreras is under team control through 2022, so Chicago may not quite have as much urgency to explore a longer-term deal with the catcher just yet, though it would be surprising if the Cubs didn’t at least broach the subject with Contreras and his representatives this spring. Contreras said that he is “just not thinking about” contract talks for now, as “my main focus is on this year.”
More from the NL Central…
- Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas “will be pushed back just a little bit” from his first outing of the spring, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas was scheduled to pitch during a simulated game on Monday, after throwing some live batting practice to teammates last week. “For now it’s caution,” Shildt said, and a team official told Goold that there is “very low” concern about Mikolas for the time being, yet any sort of setback has to considered notable considering that Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season. The right-hander ultimately decided to undergo surgery last August to fix a damaged right flexor tendon, after getting PRP injections both after the 2019 season and in February 2020, and then trying to work through the injury during both the shutdown and in Summer Camp. The Cards were already planning to bring Mikolas along rather slowly in order to build up his readiness for the start of the season, and it remains to be seen if this latest issue could delay his recovery plan.
- Injuries and a positive COVID-19 test prevented Luis Urias from getting any preseason time at shortstop last year, so the Brewers will give the youngster plenty of looks at the position during Spring Training. The larger question, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon examines, is whether or not this will result in Urias becoming the Brew Crew’s regular shortstop once the season actually begins. Milwaukee has built a lot of flexibility into the left side of its infield, as Urias, Orlando Arcia, and Daniel Robertson can all play either shortstop or third base, while Travis Shaw is also an option at the hot corner. Shaw can play first base as well, and Arcia also said that he is preparing to work out as a center fielder. Arcia made a single appearance in center field (the first of professional career) last season, playing four innings at the position on August 12 in a 12-2 loss to the Twins.