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Shohei Otani Hires CAA

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Young Japanese star Shohei Otani has hired Creative Artists Agency (CAA) to represent him in his planned move to the majors, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Nez Balelo will be the lead agent, per the report, who’ll help steward Otani through what promises to be a fascinating process.

While news of an agency choice is rarely outwardly exciting, it’s particularly notable in this case. Otani is severely limited in what he can earn, but will be looking for a team that suits his other preferences — the precise nature of which remain unknown, but which reportedly include a preference to see time as a hitter as well as a pitcher. His representation will also be advising him about marketing and other earning opportunities as well as the possibility of ultimately securing a long-term contract of the type he cannot now obtain due to the international signing restrictions.

CAA, one of the larger agencies in the sport, evidently beat out several other major competitors to land Otani as a client. Some of the outfit’s notable clients include Japanese players Nori Aoki and Junichi Tazawa. CAA has negotiated quite a few significant extensions, including big contracts for Ryan Braun, Matt Cain, Adam Jones, Buster Posey, and Ryan Zimmerman along with more recent deals for Stephen Piscotty and Jean Segura. The agency also worked on contracts for Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, and Rusney Castillo in the course of its former partnership with Roc Nation Sports.

The most recent reports on Otani’s potential posting suggest all the more reason to take note of this decision. A negotiation impasse threatens to scuttle his move altogether, with the reporting indicating that Otani (through his agent) will likely need to play a role in resolving things. (You’ll want to read the full report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post to understand the situation in full, but in essence, the problem is tied to the confluence of international bonus limitations and the proposed modification to the posting system whereby Japanese clubs would receive a percentage of any bonus.)

While Otani’s reps work to sort out the transfer situation, teams will no doubt be interested in beginning to learn just what Otani will base his decision on if and when he’s formally made available by his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters. Many have speculated on the points of a decision — the availability of a DH slot, geography, a history of successful Japanese players, willingness to do a significant early extension, etc. — but as of yet nobody really knows how the two-way talent will make up his mind.

As always, you can find the most up-to-date MLB agency information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Giants Exercise Club Options Over Bumgarner, Moore, Sandoval

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As expected, the Giants have exercised club options over left-handed starters Madison Bumgarner and Matt Moore, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports. San Francisco will also retain veteran third baseman Pablo Sandoval — a move that resulted from fairly unique circumstances.

There isn’t much cause to belabor the decisions on Bumgarner and Moore. Both had trying seasons, but were easy calls to retain at their respective salaries of $12MM and $9MM. That’s all the more true since each can be retained for similar rates ($12MM and $10MM) for 2019.

The 28-year-old Bumgarner missed about half the season after suffering a rotator cuff tear, but still posted a typically excellent 3.32 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. He will look to return to his place among the game’s very best pitchers in 2018. Moore scuffled to a 5.52 ERA, but the 28-year-old has had quite a bit more success in the past and at worst ought to provide innings at a palatable rate of pay.

In the case of Sandoval, the key factor remains the ongoing obligations borne by the Red Sox, who’ll pay the lion’s share of the $18MM owed Sandoval over each of the next two seasons (along with a $5MM buyout on a 2020 option). San Francisco will only be on the hook for the league-minimum salary, which is the least they’d have to commit to anyone occupying a roster spot regardless.

Sandoval returned to San Francisco after two and a half years of dreadful production in Boston. But the move back west did not spur a rebound; to the contrary, Sandoval batted just .225/.263/.375 in his 171 plate appearances. That said, the move hardly signals that the Giants are committed to putting Sandoval back in his former role as the regular third baseman. Instead, the team is likely to pursue upgrades there while considering Sandoval for a bench role.

9 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.

That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.

Cubs Claim Cory Mazzoni, Outright Leonys Martin

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The Cubs have announced a series of roster moves as teams around the league continue to trim rosters. Chicago claimed righty Cory Mazzoni off waivers from the Padres, adding a new name to the 40-man. Leaving the MLB roster is outfielder Leonys Martin; he’ll be replaced by righty Matt Carasiti, whose contract was selected.

Mazzoni, a former second-round draft pick who recently turned 28, has been shelled in minimal MLB time. But he put up some exciting numbers at Triple-A, allowing just two earned runs in 20 1/3 innings while racking up 31 strikeouts against just three walks. Despite those eyebrow-raising tallies, Mazzoni made it through much of the rest of the league on the wire.

As for Martin, he will have the right to elect free agency and seems likely to take it. He was a surprising mid-season acquisition for the Cubs after falling out of favor with the Mariners. Martin posted anemic offensive numbers all year long but still found himself onto the Cubs’ postseason roster. Given his well-regarded defense and baserunning, along with a history that includes some stretches of passable hitting, there ought to be a fair bit of interest in Martin, who is just 29 years of age.

Cardinals To Issue Qualifying Offer To Lance Lynn

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The Cardinals will issue a qualifying offer to righty Lance Lynn, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. He’ll have ten days to weigh the $17.4MM offer.

Expectations long have been that Lynn would receive a QO from the Cards — and that he’d ultimately reject it. We’ll have to wait a while to learn his decision, but given his apparent expectations in free agency it seems all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll choose to hit the open market.

Lynn’s decision is eased by the new rules governing the qualifying offer. Teams weighing a signing won’t need to worry about punting a first-round pick, as would have been the case in prior years. The hope and expectation is that the rule change will tamp down on the market difficulties faced by some non-star veterans in the past.

As we discussed in our ranking of the top fifty free agents, Lynn figures to land one of the ten largest contracts of the winter. But our prediction (four years and $56MM) probably seems light if you focus on the positives — namely, a shiny 3.38 career ERA over 977 2/3 innings. That reflects some concerns about the sustainability of that output as Lynn enters his thirties.

Cardinals Release Trevor Rosenthal

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The Cardinals have granted right-hander Trevor Rosenthal his unconditional release, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (on Twitter). Rosenthal was eligible for arbitration this offseason but underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and is likely to miss the majority, if not all of the 2018 season as a result.

The 27-year-old Rosenthal went under the knife late in August, making it unlikely that he’ll be able to contribute next season. Even in the unlikely event that Rosenthal had made it back for the tail end of the 2018 season, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $7.9MM salary, which would be far more than any club would be willing to pay given the amount of the season he’ll miss.

Rosenthal and agent Scott Boras will have to weigh multiple options this winter in free agency. When faced with a similar situation, Boras and client Greg Holland opted not to sign at all in the 2015-16 offseason, instead waiting until Holland was completely healed in the 2016-17 offseason and signing a one-year deal with a player option. That route certainly comes with more earning power, though all players have different preferences.

Alternatively, Rosenthal may well wish to find the security that someone like Nathan Eovaldi received last offseason, signing a one-year MLB deal with the Rays that contained a cheap club option for the 2018 campaign. While Eovaldi will “only” earn about $4MM over the 2017-18 seasons, he’s now had a full year to familiarize himself with his new organization and locked in some guaranteed money in the process.

Rosenthal could go either route, though the Holland route leaves him exposed to the possibility of lingering complications from his surgery ultimately preventing him from coming away from the ordeal with any guaranteed money. Regardless, interest in Rosenthal this winter should be robust, as teams look to buy low on the possibility of adding a high-caliber arm to their bullpen for the 2019 campaign once he has (hopefully) recovered from the ligament replacement procedure.

Blue Jays Claim Taylor Guerrieri From Rays, Outright Four Players

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The Blue Jays announced on Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Taylor Guerrieri off waivers from the Rays. Additionally, Toronto announced that catcher Rafael Lopez and right-handers Leonel Campos, Luis Santos and Taylor Cole have been outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers.

Arm troubles have persistently slowed the career of Guerrieri, a former first-round pick (No. 24 overall, 2011) that from 2012-14 was a consensus top 100 prospect in all of baseball. Guerrieri had Tommy John surgery back in 2013, which limited him to 9 1/3 frames the following season. He slowly built back up over the next two seasons, topping out at a career-high 146 1/3 innings at the Double-A level in 2016. However, further elbow complications limited Guerrieri to that exact same mark of 9 1/3 innings once again in 2017, though he didn’t require surgery this time around. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Guerrieri is believed to be healthy and ready for Spring Training 2018.

Santos (27 in February) and Campos (30) made a handful of appearances each in Toronto this past season, totaling 31 1/3 innings between the two of them. While Santos posted a solid-looking 2.70 ERA in his 16 2/3 frames, he also walked four and served up four home runs in that time. He turned in a 4.07 ERA in 108 1/3 Triple-A innings, mostly as a starter. Campos, meanwhile, showed promising strikeout numbers but shakier control both in the Majors and minors — a common trend throughout his career.

Cole, 28, saw more limited action yet, missing most of the minor league season with an injury before going on a 12 2/3-inning scoreless streak and earning a late look in the Majors. He was hit hard in his lone MLB appearance and suffered a fractured toe after one inning, which cut short his chances of further auditioning.

Lopez, meanwhile, had a great season in Triple-A, hitting .293/.368/.551 in 223 plate appearances. The 30-year-old saw just 63 PAs with the Blue Jays late in the season, though, and has never established himself in the Majors to this point in his career (nor has he demonstrated the level of offensive prowess he did at Buffalo this season).

Rays Will Extend Qualifying Offer To Alex Cobb, Not Logan Morrison

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Nov. 6: The Rays will not make a qualifying offer to first baseman Logan Morrison, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Coming off a breakout 38-homer season, it certainly wouldn’t have been a total shock to see Morrison receive the offer as well, and some clubs may well have taken that risk. However, the cost-conscious Rays likely couldn’t stomach the notion of paying a combined $35MM for the pair in the unlikely event that both accepted the deal, so Morrison will enter free agency unencumbered by the burden of draft-pick compensation.

Nov. 5: In line with rumblings  from earlier today, the Rays will extend a $17.4MM qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Cobb ranks as the 11th-best free agent available on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old Cobb has only made $9MM thus far in his career, but will now receive the opportunity to nearly triple that amount if he accepts the QO. Of course, there’s certainly a higher ceiling for him on the free agent market. The MLBTR team believes he could land a 4-year, $48MM contract if he tests free agency this winter.

Tampa Bay originally selected Cobb out of Vero Beach High School in the 4th round of the 2006 draft. He made his major-league debut in 2011, and went on to pitch 520 2/3 innings for the Rays at the major league level before being placed on the DL to begin the 2015 season. What was then described as right forearm tendinitis was eventually revealed to be a partial tear of his UCL. Cobb had the Tommy John procedure in May of that season and didn’t pitch in the majors again until 2016.

In his first full season back from injury, Cobb posted solid overall numbers. He was typically good at inducing ground balls (47.8% ground ball rate) and limiting walks (2.21 BB/9), and typically lacking in the strikeout department (6.42 K/9). Ultimately, the righty posted an impressive 3.66 ERA, though his 4.24 xFIP suggests he wasn’t quite as good as those results. Still, he accumulated 2.4 fWAR and has lined himself up for a nice payday should he choose to venture into free agency.

Cobb features a sinking fastball on which he averages 92.1 MPH, which he throws about 47% of the time. That pitch has been great for him, saving an estimated 13.1 runs in 2017 by measure of Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Linear Weights. His best secondary pitch is his curveball, and he mixes in a two-seamer every now and then. His ability to induce ground balls with those pitches will certainly be in demand this winter.

Rangers Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Andrew Cashner

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The Rangers will not make a qualifying offer to right-hander Andrew Cashner, GM Jon Daniels tells reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). MLBl.com’s Mark Feinsand had tweeted shortly before Daniels’ comments that Cashner would not receive a QO.

A qualifying offer for Cashner has always been a long shot, though reports in recent weeks have suggested that Texas was at least weighing the one-year, $17.4MM proposal to Cashner. Texas signed Cashner to a one-year, $10MM contract last offseason and was rewarded with 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball. Cashner, though, turned in one of the worst K/9 rates in all of baseball (4.64) and averaged a pedestrian 3.46 BB/9 as well. His unsightly K/BB numbers make him a candidate for significant regression in the ERA department, as is evidenced by less-than-glowing reviews from metrics like FIP (4.61), xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52).

That said, Cashner has made 27 or more starts in each of the past three seasons and averaged 150+ innings per year in that time. He’s not the top-end starter that may projected him to be in his prospect days and early in his career with the Padres, but the 31-year-old should nonetheless draw interest from several clubs this offseason as teams look to round out the back of their rotation.

Pirates Claim Nik Turley From Twins

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The Pirates announced on Monday that they’ve claimed left-hander Nik Turley off waivers from the Twins.

The 28-year-old Turley made his big league debut with the Twins this past season on the heels of excellent work in Triple-A, though he didn’t fare well in Minneapolis. Turley was rocked for 22 runs on 30 hits and eight walks with 13 strikeouts in 17 2/3 frames as a big leaguer, resulting in an 11.21 ERA. However, he tore through Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a 2.02 ERA with 12.1 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 92 innings (most of which was spent at the Triple-A level).

Turley becomes the third player the Twins have lost to waivers in the past week. Fellow left-hander Randy Rosario was claimed by the Cubs on Friday, while outfield prospect Daniel Palka was claimed by the White Sox a couple of days later.

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