Sorting The Relievers Of The 2017-18 Free Agent Class
Earlier this week I looked at the 2017-18 crop of free agent starters and sorted the lot by a number of different useful metrics when determining and attempting to predict a pitcher’s effectiveness. There are hundreds of other metrics to explore for deeper dives into any given pitcher (or group of pitchers), and this is by no means intended to be any sort of definitive ranking of the “best” available free-agent relievers. Nonetheless, the general premise of missing bats, limiting walks and avoiding hard contact is a recipe for success on the mound.
With that in mind, I turned to Fangraphs for help once again, creating a custom list of the 49 free-agent relievers that tossed at least 20 innings out of the bullpen this season to see which of the arms in question excelled in these areas. Players like Jesse Chavez, Dillon Gee and others that both worked as a starter and a reliever in 2017 had only their relief work factored into these lists. I’ve also left off Craig Kimbrel and Jerry Blevins, as each will have his 2018 club option exercised.
Hardest Throwers (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 93.7 mph
- Brandon Morrow: 97.7 mph average fastball
- Tommy Hunter: 96.3 mph
- Neftali Feliz: 96.2 mph
- Juan Nicasio: 95.4 mph
- Tom Wilhelmsen: 95.3 mph
- John Axford: 95.0 mph
- Jake McGee: 94.9 mph
- Joaquin Benoit: 94.8 mph
- Anthony Swarzak: 94.7 mph
- Fernando Rodney: 94.6 mph
Top Strikeout Arms (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 23.3 K%, 8.95 K/9
- Joe Smith: 33.0 K%, 11.8 K/9
- Jesse Chavez: 32.4 K%, 12.0 K/9
- Wade Davis: 32.1 K%, 11.9 K/9
- Boone Logan: 30.8 K%, 12.0 K/9
- Anthony Swarzak: 30.5 K%, 10.7 K/9
- Brandon Morrow: 30.1 K%, 10.6 K/9
- Greg Holland: 29.9 K%, 11.0 K/9
- Pat Neshek: 29.4 K%, 10.0 K/9
- Tommy Hunter: 28.7 K%, 10.0 K/9
- Bud Norris: 28.6 K%, 11.2 K/9
Fewest Walks (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 9.2 BB%, 3.54 BB/9
- Pat Neshek: 2.6 BB%, 0.9 BB/9
- Addison Reed: 4.0 BB%, 1.5 BB/9
- David Hernandez: 4.3 BB%, 1.5 BB/9
- Brandon Morrow & Joe Smith: 4.8 BB%, 1.7 BB/9 (tie)
- Jesse Chavez: 4.9 BB%, 1.82 BB/9
- Dillon Gee: 5.3 BB%, 1.93 BB/9
- Brandon Kintzler: 5.3 BB%, 1.91 BB/9
- Yusmeiro Petit: 5.4 BB%, 1.9 BB/9
- Seung-hwan Oh: 5.7 BB%, 2.28 BB/9
- Tommy Hunter: 5.8 BB%, 2.o BB/9
Highest Ground-Ball Rates (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 44.3 percent
- Peter Moylan: 61.9 percent
- Bryan Shaw & Brandon Kintzler: 55.9 percent (tie)
- Steve Cishek: 55.5 percent
- Craig Stammen: 51.8 percent
- Fernando Rodney: 51.5 percent
- Matt Albers: 51.4 percent
- Jeanmar Gomez: 50.7 percent
- Dustin McGowan: 50.4 percent
- Luke Gregerson: 50.3 percent
- John Axford, Boone Logan, Joe Smith: 50.0 percent (three-way tie)
Least Hard Contact Allowed (Fangraphs leaderboard)
League average = 31.0 percent
- Matt Albers: 21.9 percent
- Steve Cishek: 22.3 percent
- Tony Watson: 22.9 percent
- Bryan Shaw: 23.3 percent
- Dillon Gee: 23.7 percent
- Pat Neshek: 24.4 percent
- Brandon Kintzler & Tommy Hunter: 25.5 percent (tie)
- Peter Moylan (26.2 percent)
- Joe Smith: 26.4 percent
- Neftali Feliz: 26.7 percent
As noted on Monday when looking at the starters, this is obviously a rather high-level look at the overall relief market, as there are myriad different means of breaking down the class. Age, handedness, target contract length, total innings pitched and injury history weren’t even factored into these quick rankings, for example, and each will factor prominently into these pitchers’ offseason negotiations.
That said, there are some perhaps under-the-radar names that continually surface when looking at these elements of a pitchers’ skill set. It’s easy for the excellent seasons for Morrow and Hunter to get lost in the shuffle, for instance, but they both fit near the top of the leaderboard in a number of categories. Albers, like each of those players, parlayed a minor league pact into a significant late-inning role and is ranked favorably here as well. Smith has quietly been a K%-BB% juggernaut this season, and Chavez has even more quietly posted terrific secondary numbers out of the bullpen despite a dismal 5.84 ERA.
Moreover, the frequent appearances of Morrow, Hunter, Swarzak, Petit, Albers, Moylan and Gee serve as a reminder that often times, less-heralded minor league signings can still pay significant dividends in free agency. Each of those players should be poised for a more favorable run in free agency this offseason than last.
Rick Hahn On Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Offseason
As the White Sox prepare for the second season of a dramatic rebuilding of the franchise, the biggest questions facing general manager Rick Hahn and his front-office team will be the futures of Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. As I noted last week when taking a look at some of the upcoming offseason needs for the Sox, both are controlled only through 2019, making it questionable as to whether they’ll be part of the next contending team or whether either is more of a trade piece than a building block. Abreu will earn a raise on this year’s $10.825MM in arbitration this offseason, while Garcia will get a bump on his own $3MM salary.
Hahn address both players’ futures at an end-of-season press conference yesterday, expanding a bit on the difficult nature of the decision at hand. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago and Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune were among the reporters on hand for Hahn’s media address and has numerous quotes from the Chicago exec as well as from Abreu himself. Abreu hasn’t been shy about his desire to stick with the Sox through their rebuild in the past, and he was as blunt as ever yesterday in telling Hayes that he hopes to spend his entire career in a White Sox uniform. Whether that happens is largely up to Hahn and his staff, and the decision unsurprisingly isn’t an easy one for that group.
“Both Avi and Abreu are under control for the next two years, through 2019,” said Hahn (via Hayes). “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us, so obviously with any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of that window, we have to make an assessment.”
Hahn spoke about the possibility of extending one or both players but also the chance of marketing each in trades this offseason as a means of further amassing young talent with timelines that fall more into the 2020 and beyond target to which he alluded above.
“They’re both special cases, and there are very strong arguments for them playing roles in 2020 and beyond,” he continued, going on to stress the value they place on Abreu’s on-field contributions as well as his role as the team’s clubhouse leader. Garcia “is still very young in this game” said Hahn, adding that there’s some reason to believe that his 2017 breakout could very well become “the norm” for the 26-year-old moving forward.
Certainly, the Sox don’t have to make a definitive call on either player this winter. Hahn points to the team’s handling of Jose Quintana last offseason as an example of a player’s market not coming together in the winter but more strongly forming at the July non-waiver deadline.
“It’s not me just dancing around or being cute,” said Hahn. “There isn’t a firm answer right now. We don’t know what the options are. One of them conceivably is extending, and we have to wait and see what that cost entails.”
One thing that does seem clear, especially in the wake of a shoulder operation that could sideline Carlos Rodon for as much as the first two months of the 2018 season, is that the Sox will need some veteran rotation reinforcements. Chicago also decimated its Major League bullpen on the trade market, and while they’ve received solid contributions from unexpected sources such as Gregory Infante and Juan Minaya, they’ll still have some work to do on that front.
“It’s going to be about being opportunistic,” Hahn said of his offseason search for bullpen arms (via Kane), “and perhaps there’s another arm to fill into the rotation that makes some sense for us.” Hahn spoke specifically about veteran additions being able to provide some “cushion” to allow younger arms to further develop. While Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito and possibly Carson Fulmer could all be in the rotation early next year, the Sox seemingly could benefit from another veteran to pair with James Shields as they wait for Michael Kopech, Spencer Adams, Alec Hansen and/or Tyler Danish to prove ready for an extended look at the big league level.
There are quite a few more quotes from Hahn within each column from Hayes and Kane, so readers are encouraged to check out each in full.
Jason Grilli Not Planning To Retire
It’s been a rough season for Jason Grilli, but the 40-year-old veteran reliever tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that he has no intention of retiring and hopes to pitch again in 2018 (Twitter link).
Grilli opened the season in the Blue Jays’ bullpen following a very solid 2016 run in Toronto (after being traded there by the Braves). However, while he posted a 3.64 ERA and 12.4 K/9 in 42 innings with the Blue Jays last year, he limped out of the gates with a 6.97 ERA in his first 20 2/3 innings in 2017. Grilli served up a staggering nine home runs in that time, and the poor showing was enough for the Blue Jays to cut the cord; Grilli was designated for assignment on June 27 and traded to the Rangers less than a week later.
While things have gone marginally better for Grilli over his 18 1/3 innings in Arlington — he’s averaged 11.8 K/9 there to 10.0 in Toronto and yielded a more manageable three homers — the bottom-line results still haven’t been promising. Grilli owns a 5.89 ERA since being traded, and he’s posted a stunningly low 17.3 percent ground-ball rate in Texas.
For all of his struggles, Grilli is still averaging 10.85 K/9 this season and has posted an 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate that falls right in line with the league average among relievers. With a fastball that still averages nearly 93 mph, a healthy strikeout rate and 15 years of big league experience under his belt, Grilli should still draw some interest this offseason, though hey may still have to settle for a minor league deal and the opportunity to prove himself in Spring Training.
Mets’ Owner Reportedly Halted Terry Collins’ Dismissal In Previous Years
9:29pm: Puma and colleague Joel Sherman add more context to the story, reporting that Collins was on the brink of being fired last season when Fred Wilpon intervened. The Mets went on to rally and make a Wild Card appearance, which helped Collins’ cause. Alderson & Co. were also debating a managerial change at multiple points this season, per the Post duo.
Puma and Sherman add that Collins’ heavy usage of Familia early in the year flew directly in the face of advice from the front office. They also note that the absence of David Wright and the trade of Curtis Granderson removed two of the team’s most important veterans in terms of maintaining clubhouse order.
9:00pm: In a revealing, must-read piece for Newsday, Marc Carig reports that owner Fred Wilpon protected manager Terry Collins from being dismissed by COO Jeff Wilpon and general manager Sandy Alderson at multiple times over the course of Collins’ seven-year tenure as the team’s skipper. There have been multiple reports suggesting that Collins may not be back with the team in 2018, and the New York Post’s Mike Puma recently reported that if the decision is made to move on from Collins, the elder Wilpon isn’t likely to veto the decision this time around.
Carig cites “more than a dozen team insiders” in reporting that Collins has lost favor in the front office due to a lack of responsiveness to analytics, his overworking of multiple relievers and a clubhouse in which he’s lost control. As Carig points out, Collins rode Jerry Blevins, Addison Reed, Fernando Salas, Hansel Robles and Jeurys Familia extremely hard in the season’s first six to seven weeks; there were 21 non-Mets pitchers that had five or more appearances on zero days of rest by mid-May, while each of those five had already had five or more such outings. One club official tells Carig that Collins “abuses” relievers by overworking them and simply “doesn’t listen” when approached by the front office about extra rest for the ‘pen.
Moreover, Carig spoke to a number of unnamed Mets players that suggested that Collins made his preference to give playing time to veterans over rookies perfectly clear. When the Mets traded away most of their veterans in July and August, the clubhouse was comprised largely of younger players who “had grown to resent the manager,” Carig writes. One Mets player states that Collins has always been “difficult” to communicate with, and another more bluntly tells Carig that following the wave of summer trades: “We were all miserable.”
Beyond Collins, the future of both pitching coach Dan Warthen and hitting coach Kevin Long is uncertain. Warthen’s potential exit has been reported on previously (most recently by Puma), and Carig writes that it’s not clear if Long would remain with the club if he’s not given consideration for a potential managerial vacancy. Carig’s column contains quotes from numerous team officials and players alike and shines plenty of new light on the disconnect between the dugout and front office.
Heyman’s Latest: Hosmer, Cain, Mariners, deGrom, Dee, Tigers
Eric Hosmer and a few other big-name Royals are scheduled to hit free agency after the season, but the team is going to make a concerted effort to retain the first baseman, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. The Royals may offer the Scott Boras client upward of $100MM, which, depending on the exact amount and length, could be a stunning commitment from a franchise that has never given a player more than $72MM (Alex Gordon in 2016). Gordon’s four-year contract has been disastrous thus far, and considering the up-and-down nature of Hosmer’s career, the Royals could be taking a substantial risk in handing him a big-money pact. Although, to the 27-year-old Hosmer’s credit, he has enjoyed an outstanding platform season, having slashed .319/.385/.496 with with 24 home runs in 660 plate appearances.
More offseason-related highlights from Heyman via his latest American League and National League Notes columns:
- While the Royals will attempt to keep Hosmer, it seems they’re resigned to losing center fielder Lorenzo Cain in free agency. The Royals aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to re-sign Cain, 32, as they’re bracing for him to land a lucrative contract of at least four years. The Mariners may be a fit for him, insiders have suggested to Heyman, who adds that Seattle will also take a look at first basemen Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland if they hit the open market in the offseason.
- The Mets will likely try to extend right-hander Jacob deGrom in the coming months, per Heyman. DeGrom has been the only Mets starter to survive their injury onslaught this year, turning in yet another excellent campaign with 201 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball, to go with 10.68 K/9 against 2.64 BB/9. He’s already set to turn 30 next year and still has three arbitration-eligible seasons left, meaning deGrom can’t become a free agent until the age of 32. It could therefore behoove him to get some long-term security over the winter, and Heyman notes that a deal would likely span at least four years. If no agreement comes during the off months, he’ll build on this year’s $4.05MM salary in arbitration.
- Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon has bounced back from a suspension-shortened 2016 to increase his trade value this year, Heyman writes. Along with providing top-notch defense, Gordon has hit .305/.339/.369 with 57 stolen bases in 678 PAs, which could put him on second base-needy teams’ radars in the offseason. But with either $38MM or $51MM coming his way over the next four years (depending on a $14MM club option or $1MM buyout in 2021), the Marlins may have to eat some money in order to trade the 29-year-old (30 next April), Heyman opines.
- Giants third base coach Phil Nevin is a “strong candidate” to take over for Brad Ausmus as the Tigers’ manager, according to Heyman. Nevin played with the Tigers from 1996-97 and managed at their Double-A and Triple-A levels from 2010-13. Thanks to his work in the latter capacity, he’s already familiar with Tigers general manager Al Avila.
AL East Notes: Warren, Orioles, Hernandez
The Yankees plan to activate right-hander Adam Warren from the disabled list tomorrow, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). While the Yanks have a plenty formidable ‘pen even without Warren thanks to the presence of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green, Warren’s return will bring yet another high-quality arm to the Bronx on the eve of the postseason. In 56 1/3 innings in his first full season back with the Yankees, Warren has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 with a 44.3 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.40 ERA.
A bit more out of the AL East…
- MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli runs down a number of questions facing the Orioles this offseason, including their oft-discussed Manny Machado dilemma (if one can even call it that; the O’s have given no indication that they’d even consider parting with the soon-to-be free agent on the offseason trade market). However, while they haven’t signaled a willingness to trade Machado, Ghiroli also writes that there’s yet to be any indication that the Orioles will try to lock him up on a long-term deal. Ghiroli also addresses needs in the rotation, balancing an “all or nothing” lineup and determining which young stars are certain future pieces for the team.
- The Blue Jays aren’t expected to retain longtime right fielder Jose Bautista this offseason, writes Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com, making young Teoscar Hernandez‘s huge September showing all the more important. Hernandez’s biggest obstacle, to date, has been his lack of plate discipline with the Jays. However, he’s drawn a pair of walks in his past couple of games, and manager John Gibbons said he’s been encouraged by a more measured approach to Hernandez’s plate appearances. “I’ve noticed a big change in his aggression at the plate,” said the skipper. “He’s still an aggressive hitter, but he’s not up there swinging at everything, which is key.” Hernandez is Toronto’s “most realistic” internal candidate to take over an everyday corner outfield spot in 2018, per Chisholm. Hernandez is hitting .282/.313/.667 with eight homers in just 83 plate appearances for the Jays since being called up earlier this month.
Carlos Rodon Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon underwent arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday, the team announced this afternoon. Rodon’s surgery repaired a “significant” case of bursitis in his left shoulder, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (Twitter links). A recovery time for his specific case wasn’t provided, Hayes notes, but the Sox suggested that the general recovery timeline for this procedure is anywhere from six to eight months.
The short end of that timeline would allow Rodon to be ready for the bulk of Spring Training. However, that time frame also seems to suggest that Rodon could miss the early portion of the 2018 campaign — possibly more than the first month of the season. Certainly, there will be more updates on his condition as his rehab progresses over the life of the offseason.
Set to turn 25 in December, Rodon is a key piece for the rebuilding White Sox as the team looks toward its future. Chicago selected the NC State lefty with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, and he impressed with a 3.75 ERA over 139 1/3 innings as soon as the 2015 campaign — debuting less than one year after being drafted. Rodon followed that up with a slightly worse ERA in 2016 (4.04) but significant improvements to his control and to his durability, as he logged a career-high 165 innings in that solid 2016 effort.
The 2017 season was a struggle for Rodon, though, as he missed the first two months of the season with bursitis in his left biceps and was shut down for the year in early September. Overall, Rodon managed just 69 1/3 innings this season, though he did post a career-best 9.9 K/9 mark and a career-high 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate in that limited sample. Notably, Hayes adds in his tweets above that Rodon’s left biceps and the labrum in his left shoulder both looked “fine” when examined by renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
[Related: Chicago White Sox depth chart]
The ChiSox already seemed a decent bet to explore the possibility of adding some veteran arms this offseason, given the inexperience of their rotation outside of struggling veteran James Shields. Uncertainty regarding Rodon’s timeline to start the 2018 season only figures to enhance that likelihood. The Sox have a pair of impressive young righties in their big league rotation at present in the form of Raynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, but they’ll surely want to be careful with each in his first full big league season.
Beyond that, right-hander Michael Kopech (acquired in last December’s Chris Sale blockbuster) is perhaps the game’s top pitching prospect, but he’s thrown just 15 inning at the Triple-A level and could likely use some further development time. Other prospects, including righties Spencer Adams, Alec Hansen and Tyler Danish could all likely stand to gain some additional minor league seasoning as well; Danish had a dreadful season in Triple-A Charlotte this season, while neither Danish nor Hansen has thrown a single pitch at that level.
Athletics Extend Bob Melvin
The Athletics and manager Bob Melvin have agreed to a one-year extension, the team announced this afternoon. Melvin is now under contract through 2019, joining executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst. He’d previously been under contract through the completion of the 2018 season, so this new agreement will prevent him from entering the 2018 campaign as a dreaded “lame duck” manager with just a year to go on his deal.
Melvin, 55, is wrapping up his 14th season as a Major League manager and his seventh at the helm for the Athletics. He’s previously managed the Mariners (2003-04) and Diamondbacks (2005-09), and as the A’s point out in their press release, he’s one of just seven managers in baseball history to win Manager of the Year honors in both the American League (2012 with the A’s) and the National League (2007 with the Diamondbacks). Overall, Melvin has a career record of 1028-1040 as a manager, though he’s presided over a number of A’s teams that haven’t necessarily been in “win-now” mode.
The 2017 season was one of those years, as Oakland entered the season with a number of stopgaps among its position-player ranks as the team waited for the arrival of a wave of young talent. Veterans like Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis, Stephen Vogt and Yonder Alonso eventually gave way to an impressive bumper crop of young talent, however — a group that the A’s hope will form the nucleus of their next contending club.
Corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have made the biggest impact in the Majors (Olson with his bat, Chapman more with his glove), but the team has also welcomed the likes of Franklin Barreto, Ryon Healy, Bruce Maxwell and Jaycob Brugman into more prominent roles.
Melvin will be tasked with helping to hone the skills of that potential core group, as Oakland looks to put its current 73-85 record in the rear-view mirror in future seasons and return to contention in what was one of Major League Baseball’s most top-heavy divisions in 2017.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Thursday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
NL Notes: Marlins, Dodgers, Phillies, Padres
This weekend could go down as the the final time outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna take the field together for the Marlins, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald observes. While all three enjoy playing with one another, each realizes the organization is in flux, which might bring about the end of their successful partnership. “I think everyone is kind of aware of the situation,” said Yelich, the center fielder. “We really don’t know what’s going to happen, [but] we realize what the possibilities could be. Everybody knows that.” The only member of the trio who could block a trade is Stanton, he of 57 home runs in 2017 and a $295MM contract that runs through 2028 (or 2020, depending on an opt-out decision). The 27-year-old MVP candidate suggested that he wouldn’t be keen on embarking on a rebuild, something Miami might have to do in order to slash payroll and restock a weak farm system. “What else are you here for? I don’t do this just to show up. I’m here to try to win, get a ring,” the right fielder said (via Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel). “There’s a point otherwise, but that’s your ultimate goal.”
More from the NL:
- An ailing back continues to trouble the Dodgers’ Adrian Gonzalez, leading the club to shut him down for the year, manager Dave Roberts announced Wednesday (via Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times). Gonzalez played in just 71 games this season and batted a career-worst .242/.287/.355 for the NL’s top seed, though he did hit a home run Tuesday in what proved to be his last contest of 2017. The 35-year-old felt tightness in back on Wednesday, however, which forced the Dodgers to bring his season to a close prior to the playoffs. Regarding 2018, the final year of Gonzalez’s contract (in which he’ll make $21.5MM), he said: “My plan is to be an everyday player again and give it a go to have a really good season. Like I expected for this year.”
- Phillies right-hander Clay Buchholz has been out of action since suffering a partial tear of the flexor pronator mass in his pitching arm on April 11, but the 33-year-old expects to be ready for spring training, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. He’ll start throwing Oct. 9, roughly a month before he’ll be eligible to depart Philadelphia as a free agent. “It’s my first go around with the whole free-agent deal,” Buchholz said of the upcoming offseason. “I’ll have to prove that I’m ready to go and I’m healthy, I’m sure. But I’m looking forward to it.” While Buchholz will go down as a failed on-field pickup for the Phillies, who acquired him from Boston last winter, he did mentor their young pitchers behind the scenes, as Zolecki details.
- Third baseman Christian Villanueva has hit four homers in 10 games since the Padres selected his contract Sept. 18, putting him in position to compete for a 25-man spot next spring, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. The offseason minor league signing and former top 100 prospect with the Cubs will have an opportunity to win a starting job at second or third base in the spring, relays Cassavell, who notes that he could at least be a useful right-handed hitter off the bench. While Villaneuva, who was once part of trade involving Kyle Hendricks and Ryan Dempster, has slashed .333/.333/.778, his success has come over a minuscule amount of PAs (27). Manager Andy Green needs to see more, saying that “I don’t think you prove anything in September in such a short sample.”