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Pirates Evaluating Bryan De La Cruz

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The Pirates are scouting Marlins outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Pittsburgh is also known to be keeping an eye on center fielder/second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr., though there’s no indication they’ve progressed in trade talks.

De La Cruz, 27, has been a regular in the Miami outfield for the past three seasons. He has hit around a league average level, showing solid power with middling on-base skills. This year has been no exception. De La Cruz has 17 home runs and should surpass the 20-homer threshold for the first time in his career. He’s not getting on base consistently, though. De La Cruz is striking out at an elevated 26% rate while drawing walks just 5.5% of the time. He’s hitting .241/.285/.410 across 439 plate appearances overall.

That’s not really the level of offensive output expected of a corner outfielder. While De La Cruz has some experience in center field, he has played exclusively in the corners or at designated hitter this season. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average are each bearish on his defensive profile, especially regarding his left field work.

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have each graded him around replacement level. The Bucs could view him as a buy-low target based on his decent exit velocities. Craig Mish wrote in the Miami Herald earlier this month that the Marlins were unlikely to deal De La Cruz (and outfield mate Jesús Sánchez), reasoning they’d be selling low on both players. The Fish wouldn’t take either off the table, however, so the Bucs could certainly make a push for De La Cruz if they feel he’d represent a notable upgrade.

Pittsburgh needs offense in general and could look for outfield help specifically. Their biggest need is probably in center field, where the combination of Jack Suwinski and Michael A. Taylor has fallen flat. De La Cruz wouldn’t address that, but Pittsburgh has also had one of the least productive right field groups in MLB.

They’ve given a decent amount of time there to Edward Olivares, a broadly similar player to De La Cruz. He’s also a right-handed hitter with some intriguing physical tools but limited on-base ability. Olivares is hitting .224/.291/.333 over 55 games, leading the Bucs to option him to Triple-A shortly before the All-Star Break. They’ve used a Joshua Palacios/Connor Joe platoon there in recent weeks.

De La Cruz has yet to reach arbitration and is playing for slightly more than the league minimum. He’ll be eligible for arbitration next winter and is on track to hit free agency after the 2027 campaign (barring an earlier non-tender).

Notable Draft Signings: 7/25/24

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Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. A round-up of today’s draft signings for upwards of $2MM:

  • The Mets agreed to terms with 19th overall pick Carson Benge on a $3.9975MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s narrowly below the approximate $4.22MM slot value. Benge was generally regarded as a mid-late first round talent and ultimately landed there in the draft. He was a two-way player at Oklahoma State but is viewed as an outfield prospect in pro ball. A left-handed hitter, Benge draws praise from evaluators for his contact skills and power projection. He’s generally viewed as a right field prospect. McDaniel likens his profile to that of Orioles rookie outfielder Colton Cowser. Benge hit .335/.444/.665 with 18 homers and 24 doubles over 61 games as a draft-eligible sophomore.
  • Nationals second-round pick Luke Dickerson agreed to a $3.8MM deal, Callis reports (on X). That’s well above the $2.12MM value for the 44th overall pick. Callis notes that it’s the largest deal for a player selected after the supplemental round in the bonus pool era. The bonus aligns with what would be expected for a player drafted in the early 20s. That’s a bit of a surprise, as Dickerson rated as a late second-round talent on most pre-draft lists. The Nats are evidently higher on the righty-swinging middle infielder and were motivated to keep him from attending the University of Virginia. A New Jersey high schooler, he’s viewed as a hit-first infielder who probably projects to second base.
  • The Pirates announced the signing of competitive balance draftee Levi Sterling. Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports (X link) that the high school righty landed a $2.5114MM bonus to match the 37th pick’s slot value. A Texas commit, Sterling is a 6’5″ righty with advanced control. Law writes that his changeup is the headlining pitch in his arsenal. Sterling doesn’t throw especially hard right now but could add velocity given his frame. He’s regarded as a potential back-end starter.

Phillies Showing Interest In Carlos Estevez

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The Phillies have interest in Angels closer Carlos Estévez, reports Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The Halos are expected to trade the hard-throwing righty before next Tuesday’s deadline.

Estévez has had an excellent season. He’s running a 2.38 ERA over 34 innings. Estévez has fanned nearly 26% of batters faced while keeping his walk rate to a pristine 4% clip. He has locked down 20 of 23 save opportunities and is running a remarkable streak. Opponents haven’t plated a run since May 21. Estévez has rattled off 18 straight scoreless outings, allowing a grand total of five baserunners (three singles and two walks) in that time.

The Halos signed the former Rockies setup man to a two-year, $13.5MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. While he scuffled down the stretch last season and had a few shaky appearances this April, that has generally been an excellent investment. Estévez has held the ninth inning throughout his time in Los Angeles and carries a 3.36 ERA across 96 1/3 frames with the Halos. His 27.2% strikeout rate over that stretch is more very good than elite, but he’s a power arm who has shown dramatically improved control this season.

Estévez is headed back to the open market at season’s end. While the Angels have played their way back to within eight games in the AL West, they’re 12 games under .500 and not a realistic playoff contender. There’s little reason to hang onto their impending free agents of value, a group headlined by their closer.

Philadelphia is likely to add some kind of late-inning help. They’ve also been tied to Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott and Washington’s Kyle Finnegan in recent weeks. José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and Gregory Soto have each been inconsistent, leaving the Phils with some questions in the late innings aside from All-Star righty Jeff Hoffman.

Luis Medina, Alex Wood To Undergo Season-Ending Surgeries

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The 2024 season is over for a pair of A’s starters. Manager Mark Kotsay told reporters on Thursday that right-hander Luis Medina will undergo Tommy John surgery next month. Meanwhile, veteran southpaw Alex Wood is headed for a shoulder procedure to address rotator cuff tendinitis (via the MLB.com injury tracker).

Neither development is all that surprising. The A’s announced earlier this week that Medina had suffered ligament damage in his elbow.  While he went for additional evaluation in the hope of avoiding surgery, that’s generally something of a long shot. Medina is now set to miss most or all of next season.

Acquired as part of the Frankie Montas trade with the Yankees, Medina has pitched in parts of two seasons for Oakland. He turned in a 5.42 ERA across 109 2/3 innings as a rookie. The 25-year-old made eight starts this year, allowing 5.18 earned runs per nine through 40 frames. He struck out 17.8% of opponents while walking more than 11% of batters faced. Medina will collect service time while he’s on the injured list. The A’s can move him to the 60-day IL during the season to open a spot on the 40-man roster. They’ll need to put him back on the 40-man or waive him next winter.

Wood signed an $8.5MM free agent deal in February. The A’s were hoping for a rebound year from the veteran southpaw, who could have been a midseason trade chip if healthy. That unfortunately was not to be. Wood pitched nine times, allowing a 5.26 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. He posted subpar strikeout and walk numbers before going on the IL in mid-May. Oakland transferred him to the 60-day injured list a few weeks later.

It’s a third straight disappointing season for Wood, who last managed a sub-4.00 ERA with the Giants in 2021. He’ll return to free agency at the start of the offseason and turns 34 in January. It’s possible he’s limited to minor league offers heading into next season. The A’s didn’t provide much detail on the nature of the shoulder surgery nor specify whether Wood is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Twins Release Jay Jackson

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The Twins released veteran reliever Jay Jackson, tweets Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. The righty had been outrighted last month and wasn’t on the 40-man roster.

Jackson made 20 MLB appearances with Minnesota early in the year. He struggled to a 7.52 earned run average despite striking out 29 hitters while only issuing nine walks. The longball was the biggest issue. Jackson allowed seven home runs over 26 1/3 innings. It was a marked turnaround from the 2.12 ERA that he’d posted over a similar amount of playing time with the Blue Jays last season.

The 36-year-old Jackson had fired three innings of one-run ball in Triple-A early in the season. He did not pitch there following last month’s outright assignment. Jackson had been on the temporarily inactive list. He’s now a free agent and could find minor league interest once he’s ready to return to action.

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Pirates, Jose Rojas Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates are in agreement with Jose Rojas on a minor league contract, tweets Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He was assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis.

Rojas, 31, has 83 games of MLB experience. That came entirely with the Angels between 2021-22. He struggled to a .188/.245/.339 slash line while striking out at a 28.6% clip across 241 plate appearances. Rojas hasn’t gotten to the big leagues in the past two years, but he has had a nice year in Triple-A. After signing an offseason minor league deal with the Yankees, he hit .254/.359/.561 with 18 home runs over 67 games for their top affiliate in Scranton. The Yankees nevertheless didn’t buy into his form, as they released him a couple weeks ago rather than add him to a struggling MLB infield.

A left-handed hitter, Rojas owns a .273/.346/.532 slash in nearly 1500 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s capable of playing all four corner positions and has some second base experience. Rojas has primarily played the corner infield spots in the minors. He adds a versatile lefty bat as non-roster depth to the Pittsburgh system.

Christian Yelich To Attempt Non-Surgical Rehab On Back

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Yesterday, the possibility was raised that Brewers outfielder/designated hitter Christian Yelich could be facing season-ending back surgery. That scenario seems to be off the table at the moment, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting on X that Yelich will attempt rest and rehab for now, but with surgery in the offseason still “a strong possibility.”

The Brewers placed their star and former MVP on the 10-day injured list yesterday with lower back inflammation. It was reported at the time that the 32-year-old would be seeing a spine specialist today with season-ending surgery a possibility, though it seems the specialist gave Yelich some hope of returning this season.

The lower back has been an ongoing problem for Yelich, as he went on the IL due to issues in that part of his body in 2014, 2015, 2021 and now again in 2024. “I’ve dealt with it a lot during my career,” Yelich said yesterday, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “I feel like it’s kind of affected me in a negative way at times. I’ve been able to play at a high level but it’s one of those things that’s held be back a little, so that’s where it’s frustrating. What are you going to do? But also, though, there’s a potential that I can finally get on the other side of this, finally, when all is said and done. We’ll see. It remains to be seen, I guess.”

Based on those words from Yelich, it seems as though there’s some belief that the surgery could put the issue behind him for good. Even if that is the case, it’s understandable why he would try to delay it, at least for a few months. The Brewers are currently 59-43 and have a six-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Given the club’s circumstances, it’s understandable that he would want to pursue a chance of coming back for the stretch run and then the playoffs.

Even when not 100% healthy, he’s often the best player on the field when he’s out there. He won National League MVP in 2018 and was roughly as good in 2019. Over those two seasons, he hit 80 home runs and slashed .327/.415/.631 for a wRC+ of 170. He also stole 52 bases and played all three outfield positions. He racked up a massive 14.2 wins above replacement in that two-year stretch, per FanGraphs.

He then had a bit of a dip in 2020 and 2021, hitting .234/.360/.392 in that time for a 106 wRC+, but he’s been on an upward trend since then. His wRC+ jumped to 111 in 2022 and 122 last year, before getting all the way to 155 here in 2024. He’s hit 11 home runs and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a .315/.406/.504 batting line. He’s swiped 21 bags as well.

Getting that kind of production back in the lineup later in the year will obviously be a priority for the Brewers. For now, they have an outfield mix consisting of Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. The designated hitter slot can be shared between Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and others.

Even if he is able to return this year, it’s still possible he’ll have to go under the knife later. Whether that impacts his offseason or his 2025 campaign remains to be seen. His deal with the Brewers runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Orioles Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jameson Taillon

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The Orioles are among the teams that have expressed some interest in Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale connected two other AL East teams — the Yankees and Red Sox — to Taillon over the weekend.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted recently that the front office was prioritizing next season and beyond in its deadline dealings. That more or less rules them out of the bidding on impending free agents and suggests they’re open to offers on their rentals. It doesn’t mean they’re planning to aggressively market players under contract or team control beyond this season.

Taillon is under contract through 2026. The Cubs could certainly hold him even if they’re conceding it’s unlikely they’ll make a playoff run this season. The veteran righty is set to make $18MM in each of the next two years, though, so Chicago could prefer to offload that commitment and look to reallocate the money to other areas of the roster next offseason.

Getting out from the Taillon contract seemed unlikely just a few months ago. His first season in the Windy City wasn’t great, as he struggled to a 4.84 earned run average through 154 1/3 innings. His run prevention has improved here in 2024, with his ERA down to 2.96.

His underlying rate stats haven’t changed as drastically, however. He had a 21.4% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate last year, with those figures at 19.1% and 5.1% in 2024. He’s allowed fewer home runs and his batting average on balls in play has dropped from .292 to .275, helping his strand rate climb from 64.6% to 76.4%. FIP, which credits pitchers for home runs or the lack thereof, has Taillon going from last year’s 4.61 to this year’s 3.77. But SIERA, which normalizes home run rate, has given Taillon a lesser shift from last year’s 4.34 to this year’s 4.23.

Whether Taillon has significant changed from last year or not, he has a track record of being a decent rotation stalwart. He now has over 1,000 innings in his career with a 3.90 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate.

The Cubs could hang onto him for the remainder of that contract but there’s also logic in making him available, as the long-term rotation picture still looks good even without Taillon in it. They could go into next season with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks in four spots, with guys like Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian in the mix as well. Cade Horton, the club’s top prospect, is current dealing with a subscapularis strain but could be back on the mound later this year and in line for his major league debut. Prospects like Brandon Birdsell and Connor Noland have also reached the Triple-A level.

For the O’s, they are tied with the Guardians for the best record in the American League despite some rotation challenges. Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells all required season-ending UCL surgery earlier this year, knocking three arms out of Baltimore’s rotation mix.

Currently, they have Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez as the core four in their rotation. Burnes and Rodriguez make for a solid one-two but Kremer is mostly a back-end guy. Suárez is having a nice season with a 3.48 ERA, but he’s a 34-year-old journeyman in the big leagues for the first time since 2017. They’ve given brief looks to prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott without much success.

Adding to that group should be an obvious target for Baltimore. They’ve also been connected to a high-upside option in Garrett Crochet but it’s fair to wonder if that’s possible or likely. It’s also possible to see both Crochet and Taillon co-existing in this rotation next to Burnes and Rodriguez.

Speaking of Burnes, he’s an impending free agent, which will open a massive hole in next year’s rotation. General manager Mike Elias has admitted that adding controllable starting pitching would make sense for the club, perhaps making the extra two seasons on Taillon’s deal part of the appeal for them. Levine’s report adds that Taillon’s contract allows him to block trades to ten teams, but it’s not known which teams are on that list.

Blue Jays Plan To Keep Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays enter next week’s trade deadline as clear sellers, but virtually all of the focus thus far has been on the rental players they can offer to other teams. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards, and catcher Danny Jansen are all free agents at season’s end and thus all candidates to change hands. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Toronto hasn’t changed its stance on hoping to contend in 2025 and as such has not been shopping either Chris Bassitt (signed through 2025) or Kevin Gausman (through 2026). As is the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette (both under club control through 2025), that pair of arms is generally expected to stay put.

At least with regard to Bassitt, it’s mildly surprising that the Jays aren’t more strongly contemplating a trade. The veteran righty is in year two of a three-year, $63MM contract and pitching fairly well — but it’s also his age-35 campaign. He’ll pitch all of next year at 36. Generally, when teams sign a free agent to a multi-year deal, they’re more interested in the earlier seasons of the deal and consider the final year(s) to be the cost of doing business. Toronto doesn’t have much pitching depth, so they’d need to replace Bassitt either via free agency or trade, but one would think that next year’s $21MM salary could be reallocated to a younger arm. Beyond that, Bassitt could of course net the Jays some young talent as well.

Bassitt, who’s pitching as this is being written, entered play Thursday with a 3.71 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 41.2% grounder rate. He’s started 20 games and tossed 114 innings — an average of just over 5 2/3 innings per appearance. He’s still a clearly above-average starter, but some clubs might take this opportunity to try to add some young talent, clear some payroll off the following season’s books and reinvest that notable salary elsewhere. (The Cubs, for instance, have considered the possibility of taking that approach with Jameson Taillon.)

It’s a similar story with Gausman, although at 33 years of age with two extra years to go and in the midst of a down season, a trade involving him might not be so straightforward. Gausman’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down from last year’s 94.7 mph and from 2022’s 95 mph. His 22.9% strikeout rate is still a solid mark, but it’s way down from last year’s 31.1% clip. Ditto his 6.3% walk rate, which is slightly improved over last year’s 7.2% mark but nowhere close to his 3.9% rate from 2022.

Gausman is missing fewer bats than usual and giving up an uncharacteristic level of loud contact. This year’s 90.2 mph average exit velocity and 11.4% barrel rate are both career-worst marks, while Gausman’s 1.30 HR/9 is his worst mark since the juiced ball season in 2019. Gausman is earning $24MM this season and $23MM in each of the next two years. He’ll have a combined $54MM still owed to him as of the trade deadline.

Also signed through the 2025 season is reliever Chad Green, whom the Jays will pay $10.5MM next year. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the Yankees are interested in a reunion, citing Green’s low ERA and status as a popular teammate in New York as part of the rationale.

It’d frankly be something of a surprise if the Yankees were interested in going down that road, however. Green’s 1.82 ERA is impressive, but the right-hander will also turn 34 next May. He’s sitting on a career-low 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate that, while solid, is the second-highest of his career. This season’s 95.3 mph average fastball is the second-lowest of his career, and Green is yielding a woeful 92.7 mph average exit velocity and 48.7% hard-hit rate — both among the worst marks in baseball.

Green’s pristine earned run average is largely a function of two things: a .192 average on balls in play that stands as the tenth-lowest in baseball among the 441 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched and a 100% strand rate. Green hasn’t allowed a single man he’s put on base to come around and score thus far. Neither of those marks are sustainable — particularly not when nearly half his batted balls are leaving the plate at 95 mph or more.

On top of all that, the Yankees are in the top tier of luxury penalization. They’d owe a 110% tax on top of Green’s salary. He’d cost them more than $7MM to rent for the remainder of the current season, and assuming they end up back in the top tax bracket next season, Green’s final year of his contract would cost the Yankees an outlandish $22.05MM. Perhaps if the Blue Jays agreed to pay down the vast majority of his contract or take back an undesirable pact, New York would indeed welcome the opportunity to bring back a popular teammate. That said, Green’s underlying numbers and the Yankees’ luxury-tax status make it hard to see how a reunion between the two parties would be realistic.

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