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Phillies Sign Joe Ross

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The Phillies and Joe Ross have agreed to a one-year contract, the team confirmed. Matt Gelb of The Athletic, who was first to report the signing, adds that Ross will receive a $4MM salary. The right-hander, who has experience as a starter and a reliever, is expected to take on a swingman role in Philadelphia. To free up a space for Ross on the 40-man roster, the Phillies have designated fellow righty José Cuas for assignment.

Ross, 32 in May, spent the 2024 season with the Brewers. He opened the year in Milwaukee’s rotation, making nine starts with a 4.50 ERA and 4.65 SIERA through mid-May. Unfortunately, a lower back strain landed him on the IL for more than two months in the middle of the year. He made one poor start upon his return before moving into the bullpen.

It was there that Ross thrived, pitching to a 1.67 ERA and 3.89 SIERA in 27 innings of work. Although his fastball velocity didn’t increase by much, he raised his strikeout rate from 18.7% as a starter to 24.1% as a reliever. He also did an excellent job limiting extra-base hits. While the righty gave up more fly balls and fewer grounders, he dropped his opponents’ isolated power from .134 to .060. In addition, Ross provided the Brewers bullpen with valuable length; he threw more than one inning in 10 of his 15 relief appearances.

Ultimately, the sample size of Ross’s 2024 season is relatively small. He pitched 47 innings as a starter and 27 out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, the sample size of his 2022 and ’23 seasons is non-existent. He landed on the IL with a UCL injury in August 2021, underwent his second career Tommy John surgery in May 2022, and did not pitch in the majors again until this past year.

From 2015-21, Ross was a capable pitcher when healthy. In 76 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Nationals, he put up a 4.26 ERA and an identical 4.26 SIERA. In 2024, he showed he could still be that arm. Across 74 innings, he produced a respectable 3.77 ERA and 4.38 SIERA. He went at least five innings in seven of his 10 starts and held his opponents scoreless in 12 of his 15 relief appearances. It’s easy to see what the Phillies like in a guy who can provide depth for the rotation and length for the bullpen. At the same time, it’s easy to see why fans might be nervous. Ross has a lengthy injury history that has prevented him from ever pitching more than 27 games or 108 innings in a season. That upside is why he landed a major league deal; his injury history is why it’s only a $4MM guarantee, pocket change for a Phillies team with a projected $289MM payroll (per RosterResource).

In a media availability last week, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said he was looking for a swingman type who could pitch out of both the rotation and the bullpen. However, after the team’s surprise acquisition of starter Jesús Luzardo, it was unclear if Dombrowski was still seeking another pitcher. With a projected rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Luzardo, the Phillies could have opted to use Taijuan Walker as their swingman. The veteran lost his starting job this past year amidst a career-worst season. In 19 appearances (15 starts) he pitched to a 7.10 ERA and 5.25 SIERA in 83 2/3 innings of work.

With Ross in the fold, it’s hard to guess what Walker’s role will be with the Phillies in 2025 – if he’ll have one at all. The seven locks for the 2025 bullpen are José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, and Ross. That only leaves one spot left on the pitching staff. The Phillies could give that spot to Walker, but they might prefer to go with a higher-upside young arm rather than carrying two long men. Max Lazar, whom Dombrowski mentioned in his media availability last week, is one name on the 40-man roster to keep in mind. As for any further outside additions, the POBO suggested he’s likely done supplementing to the bullpen (per Gelb). For now, Walker will prepare to compete for a bullpen job and provide additional starting depth in case of injury. Still, one has to presume the Phillies are looking for any way to offload his contract this winter. He is set to earn $36MM over the next two seasons.

Cuas did not appear in a game with the Phillies in 2024. After beginning his career with the Royals in 2022, he was traded to the Cubs at the deadline in 2023. Chicago DFA’d him this past June, and the Blue Jays claimed him off of waivers. Toronto would DFA him as well before the end of the year, and although the Phillies claimed him in September, they optioned him to Triple-A and never called him up. The right-hander has a career 4.37 ERA and 4.43 SIERA in 119 1/3 innings. He also has two option years remaining. That should help him find a new club to sign him as a depth arm for 2025.

Phillies Designate Tyler Gilbert For Assignment

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The Phillies have designated left-hander Tyler Gilbert for assignment, per a team announcement. Gilbert’s 40-man roster spot will go to fellow southpaw Jesús Luzardo, who was acquired by the Phillies in a trade with the Marlins earlier today.

The news is an unwelcome birthday present for Gilbert, who turned 31 today. The lefty pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. He was selected to the active roster for the stretch run and pitched decently with a 3.24 ERA despite a 4.85 FIP. That brief stint with Philadelphia was actually something of a reunion, as the Phillies actually drafted Gilbert in the sixth round of the 2015 draft. He was surrendered to the Diamondbacks in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, however, and spent parts of three seasons in Arizona after making his debut with the club back in 2021.

Gilbert’s 2021 campaign is actually what the lefty is best known for. After being added to the club’s roster in early August and making a handful of relief appearances, the lefty actually tossed a no-hitter against the Padres in his first career start. The lefty struck out five and walked three across those nine hitless innings of work and remained in the club’s rotation down the stretch. He struggled to a 4.61 ERA in his final five starts of the year, however, and did not crack the club’s Opening Day rotation in 2022. The southpaw pitched to a lackluster 5.23 ERA and 5.10 FIP over his final two years with the Diamondbacks before being outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster last November.

Traditionally, the Phillies would have one week to either work out a trade involving Gilbert or attempt to pass him through waivers. With that said, that clock has put on pause over the holidays in previous seasons, so it’s possible that a resolution for Gilbert won’t ultimately be announced until the new year. Should he clear waivers successfully, Gilbert would have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency after previously been outrighted in his career. Should he elect free agency, he’d be an interesting depth option from the left side for clubs in need of pitching depth but would likely be limited to minor league deals due to his limited track record of success at the big league level.

Phillies Acquire Jesus Luzardo

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The Phillies made a big acquisition to their rotation, announcing they’ve acquired Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. It’s a two-for-two trade sending Luzardo and minor league catcher Paul McIntosh to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba and outfield prospect Emaarion Boyd.

Luzardo, 27, is coming off something of a lost season but was among the most coveted starters available on the trade market as recently as last winter. The southpaw made just 12 starts in 2024 due to a lumbar stress reaction and struggled when he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 5.00 ERA (91 ERA+) in 66 2/3 innings of work. While Luzardo maintained a solid 8% walk rate, his 21.2% strikeout rate was far below his career norms and his fastball velocity was more than a tick below where it was in 2023.

Even with those warts, however, it’s easy to see why Luzardo would be an attractive addition to the rotation for the Phillies. In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.

While there’s no guarantee Luzardo will be able to recapture that ace-level production he flashed prior to his injured 2024 season, the Phillies won’t need to rely on him for front-end production. Instead, Luzardo joins an incredibly deep Phillies rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez. Even a fully healthy and effective Luzardo would slot in as the #2 starter in that rotation between Wheeler and Nola, and even if the southpaw merely pitches to the peripherals (4.23 FIP, 4.33 SIERA) he posted during his injury-marred 2024 campaign he’d be a noticeable upgrade over Taijuan Walker, who pitched to an ugly 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work this past season.

The Phillies have been known to have interest in adding rotation help this winter, though that was generally expected to come in the form of a depth piece who could pitch out of the bullpen or give Walker competition for the fifth starter spot, not unlike the club’s signing of right-hander Spencer Turnbull last winter. The acquisition of a player with Luzardo’s talent and pedigree obviously goes well beyond that, however, and surely pushes Walker into a long relief role to open the season assuming the rest of the rotation is healthy.

Adding Luzardo also eases the club’s long-term need for rotation help, as he’s under team control for the next two seasons. With Suarez scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, it’s possible that the addition of Luzardo allows the Phillies to rely on some combination of Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter to round out their 2026 rotation. That would push the need for an additional starter off to the 2026-27 offseason, at which point both Walker and Luzardo himself will be eligible for free agency.

For now, though, Luzardo is a cost-controlled addition to the Phillies’ rotation who figures to raise the group’s already impressive ceiling considerably. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Luzardo for an arbitration salary of just $6MM in 2025, a figure that pushes the Phillies’ payroll to the $285MM range and their luxury tax payroll up to $304MM per RosterResource. Notably, that pushes them past the highest $301MM tax threshold for next season, at which point the club is taxed at a 110% rate on any overages beyond $301MM in addition to their highest pick in the 2026 draft being pushed back ten spots.

In terms of the actual financial cost, then, bringing Luzardo into the fold figures to cost the Phillies something closer to $10.5MM between the southpaw’s salary and the tax bill that comes with it. It’s an unprecedented level of spending for the Phillies, and it’s not clear how much more room the club will have to manuever as it seeks to make further upgrades. Perhaps that’s why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested the club was unlikely to make further major additions earlier this week, with a swingman for the pitching staff and a bench piece for the lineup highlighted as the club’s remaining priorities. The addition of Luzardo likely eliminates the need for a swingman by pushing Walker into that role, of course.

For the Marlins, the prize in this deal is Caba. Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s #81 prospect in the game and #54 at Baseball America, Caba just celebrated his 19th birthday earlier this month and looked solid in complex league play this year with a .254/.427/.335 slash line. While he offered little power, he walked more than he struck out and stole 37 bases in 45 attempts across 225 plate appearances at the level. Caba was promoted to Single-A down the stretch and struggled badly with a .179/.304/.190 slash line in 115 trips to the plate, though he still recorded more walks (16) than strikeouts (15). While he’s roundly projected for below-average power by prospecting services, he’s regarded as having the potential to be a special defender at shortstop and his impressive knack for plate discipline should give him a solid offensive floor.

Boyd, meanwhile, was the Phillies’ 11th-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 21-year-old hit just .239/.317/.331 in 400 trips to the plate at the High-A level in 2024, though he’s stolen 83 bases over the past two seasons due to elite speed and is regarded as a potentially plus defender in center field due to his wheels. That was enough to make him the #23 prospect in the Phillies organization, according to Pipeline. That said, Boyd currently offers minimal power and has a below average hit tool, though his contact-heavy approach and potential to grow into a little more power as he physically matures is enough to keep him on the radar as a potential big league contributor.

Also in the deal is McIntosh, who joins Luzardo in heading from Miami to Philadelphia. The 26-year-old isn’t considered to be much of a prospect, having been selected by the Marlins in the 34th round of the 2018 draft. He slashed .246/.340/.385 in 117 games with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Pensacola this past season. For the Phillies, McIntosh should offer a solid glove-first option behind the plate to help guide the club’s young pitchers in the upper minors and perhaps provide some depth behind the club’s big league catching corps.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Phillies were acquiring Luzardo. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald was first to report that Miami was acquiring Caba and Boyd. Matt Gelb of the Athletic had McIntosh’s inclusion.

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Further Offseason Moves, Sasaki

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The Phillies might have already made their biggest moves of the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has given out this winter; they signed right-handed reliever Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. At a recent press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested those two signings are likely his primary offseason additions.

The executive spoke favorably of Kepler, praising his selectivity and bat-to-ball skills. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies ranked among the bottom half of teams in contact and chase rate in 2024. Evidently, Dombrowski is hoping Kepler will help to fix that problem. His chase rate was below average this past year but typically ranks among the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average in every season of his career.

Kepler will slot into the lineup as the primary left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no concerns about his ability to quickly pick it up. He has graded out as an excellent defensive right fielder throughout his career. Of more concern than Kepler’s ability to play left field is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The lefty batter had reverse platoon splits in 2024 but has often struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be the strong side of a platoon in Philadelphia. However, the POBO identifies the righty-batting Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover for Kepler with a tough lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas is another righty-batting outfielder on the roster, but he’ll most likely be busy covering for center fielder Brandon Marsh, another lefty-batting outfielder with poor platoon splits.

While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he acknowledged that his new signing is coming off a down year. It’s debatable how true that is; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 were a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but right in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021-22. The version of Kepler on display in 2024 might be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder took a step back in 2024 and why the Phillies are optimistic he’ll improve in 2025. Kepler was playing through a core muscle injury for much of the 2024 season. However, he had surgery to repair the issue this offseason and has already recovered. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long was pleased with what he saw.

While Kepler and Romano are both looking to bounce back from injuries in 2025, Dombrowski would not characterize either signing as bargain bin shopping. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are simply two players the team wanted – indeed, he says they have liked Kepler for quite a while – and it was the players themselves who sought one-year deals. It seems that both are hoping to boost their value and re-enter the free agent market next offseason.

On a similar note, Dombrowski also denied that he is working under strict payroll constraints. That said, he did make it quite clear that he almost certainly isn’t looking to sign any additional impact free agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first offseason in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he didn’t sign a free agent to a nine-figure contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still projected to increase by more than $30MM to a franchise-record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s largely because the three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed this past March will begin next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski did sign a nine-figure deal this offseason – he just did it several months early.

As for smaller additions to improve the team along the margins, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one more position player for the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Currently, the Phillies have three bench players who seem to be locks for the Opening Day roster: utility infielder Edmundo Sosa, fourth outfielder Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They could use one more option who can play both the infield and the outfield. While Dombrowski doesn’t eliminate the possibility of seeking an external upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. He names Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Buddy Kennedy as three players who could fill that role from within the organization.

Wilson has the most MLB success of the trio, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name multiple times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year remaining. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, which means the Phillies would risk losing them through waivers if they don’t put them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, while Kennedy has very limited professional experience playing the outfield.

Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for an upgrade. Ideally, he’d like an arm that could potentially take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also pitch out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker wins the fifth starter job out of camp. That seems to describe someone like Spencer Turnbull, who the Phillies signed for one year and $2MM last offseason. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 relief appearances for Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jakob Junis could be an intriguing option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.

The Phillies currently have six locks for the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as back-end arms, and he identifies Tanner Banks and José Ruiz as middle-inning relievers the team likes. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would presumably go to the aforementioned swingman. The other will most likely remain up for grabs entering spring training. Dombrowski mentioned Max Lazar as one possibility to win the job. The righty struggled in a handful of big league appearances this past year but excelled in the minors.

One final point of interest from Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief discussion of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The executive made it clear the Phillies would love to engage in further discussions with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising – the Phillies never seemed like a frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes – but it’s still a disappointing update.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Phillies, Nick Vespi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent left-hander Nick Vespi, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Vespi, 29, has seen big league time with the Orioles in each of the past three seasons. He’s tallied 53 1/3 innings along the way, pitching to a solid 3.88 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.9% walk rate. Vespi embodies the “finesse lefty” archetype, sitting 89 mph on his cutter, but he’s missed bats (12.9% swinging-strike rate) and kept the ball on the ground (44.7%) at clips that are slightly better than league average.

Despite the solid work in the majors, Vespi was designated for assignment in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed. A disastrous showing in Triple-A this year surely contributed to that outcome. Vespi pitched 42 1/3 innings down in Norfolk but was rocked for a 7.23 ERA. A sky-high .424 average on balls in play played a role in inflating his earned run average, but Vespi also walked a very uncharacteristic 14.6% of his opponents and plunked three more. A whopping 16% of his opponents in Triple-A reached via base-on-balls or hit-by-pitch.

If Vespi can get back to the solid command he showed both in Triple-A and in the majors, he’ll have a good chance of pitching his way into the Phillies’ plans. He may not throw hard, but he’s been good in three Triple-A seasons prior to 2024 and has had some solid big league results in Baltimore. Vespi generally limits hard contact well — career 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate — and did so quite well in Norfolk this year even while struggling with his bottom-line results (85.7 mph average exit velocity, 27.6% hard-hit rate).

He’ll need to earn the opportunity with a strong spring or impressive early work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Vespi does land on the big league roster, he can be controlled not only for the 2025 season but an additional five years beyond that point.

Phillies Considering Workload Reduction For J.T. Realmuto

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Shortly after the team’s season came to an end, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated that veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto might see less time behind the plate in 2025 going forward. It wasn’t clear at the time what the specifics of that arrangement might look like, but Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer recently discussed the club’s plans regarding Realmuto in greater detail, relaying that manager Rob Thomson suggested this week that Realmuto’s performance may improve if he receives an extra day off per week during the season.

While Realmuto played just 99 games this season after undergoing knee surgery back in June, he averaged 135 games played per year from 2015 to 2023, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. While soon-to-be 34 year old has received occasional time at DH and even first base throughout his career, the overwhelming majority of his work has come behind the plate. That means he’s typically sat just once a week throughout his tenure behind the plate, a hefty workload for any backstop. Shifting to a schedule that sees him play something closer to five games per week with an extra day off would still leave Realmuto to play around 115 games per year, a workload comparable to those handled by Yankees rookie Austin Wells and Cubs youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024.

While 115 games per year wouldn’t light up the leaderboards among catchers in terms of volume, it’s worth noting that most catchers who rack up the playing time of a true everyday player see significant time at DH, first base, or another position on the diamond. Salvador Perez, for example, stepped up to the plate for the Royals in 158 games this year but was behind the plate for just 90 of those games. 115 games caught in 2024 would’ve been the eighth highest total in the majors and just 16 games behind Cal Raleigh, who led the league with 131 games caught.

Lauber notes Perez as an example of how scaling back defensive duties behind the dish can help aging catchers remain productive on offense. From 2015 to 2018, Perez hit just .252/.284/.448 (91 wRC+) while serving as the everyday catcher in Kansas City. After injury woes wiped out his 2019 season, Perez began to scale back his time behind the plate and has hit a far more robust .264/.309/.474 (109 wRC+) over the past four seasons. Given that Realmuto is a career 110 wRC+ hitter who has slashed an even more robust .264/.325/.455 (114 wRC+) over the past three seasons, it’s easy to imagine Realmuto’s bat being among the most impactful for his position in the game if he scaled back his catching duties.

With that being said, Lauber notes that the Phillies haven’t approached Realmuto regarding the possibility of more carefully managing his workload in 2025. That’s not the only thing the sides haven’t discussed, either; according to Lauber, the Phillies have yet to approach Realmuto about an extension despite the fact that he’s poised to reach free agency following the 2025 season. With that said, Lauber suggests that an extension could be discussed either later in the offseason or at some point during Spring Training. It was just last winter, after all, that the Phillies slow-played their extension talks with veteran ace Zack Wheeler despite clear interest in a deal from both sides. That deal wound up getting done in early March after months of rumors surrounding the possibility of extension talks.

Lauber speculates that a similar deal to the one Wheeler signed, which guaranteed him just three years at a record AAV, could make sense for both sides if the Phillies and Realmuto do pursue an extension. Catchers are risky long-term investments thanks to the physical toll the position takes on the body, and given that an especially lengthy deal seems somewhat unlikely. Even a three-year extension would guarantee Realmuto a contract through the end of his age-37 season, which would certainly carry some risk for Philadelphia given that 35-year-old Travis d’Arnaud was the only catcher to garner even 300 plate appearances at age-35 or older behind the plate this season. With that being said, next year’s class of free agent catchers figures to be relatively thin and the Phillies internal duo of Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan inspires little confidence as compared to the veteran, which could convince the club to roll the dice with Realmuto as he ages.

Angels Have Checked In On Arenado, Bohm, E. Suarez

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The Angels are known to be open to an everyday addition at third base, and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports they’ve at least gauged the respective asking prices for Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez in talks with the Cardinals, Phillies and Diamondbacks, respectively.

The Halos are reportedly one of the at least six teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, though that’s a somewhat surprising development in and of itself. Both reporting out of St. Louis and, more recently, direct quotes from agent Joel Wolfe have suggested that the eight-time All-Star would prefer to land with a team that has a clear path to contention over the remaining three years of his contract. Said Wolfe earlier this week to a host of reporters at the Winter Meetings: “He wants a team that has the throttle down … that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

While the Angels are clearly looking to better the club — they’ve added Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Kyle Hendricks this winter — it’s less clear that those moves position them as a contender for the foreseeable future. The Angels’ 63-99 record was the fourth-worst in MLB last season, landing them last place in the American League West. Arenado is an Anaheim-area native, however, having been born in Newport Beach and attended high school in Lake Forest. That proximity to home could understandably hold some sway, especially when coupled with a series of win-now moves from the Angels over the past six weeks or so.

Arenado, 34 in April, is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that under the terms of the deal that sent him from Denver to St. Louis several years ago. His offensive contributions have fallen off over the past two seasons — .269/.320/.426, compared to .293/.358/.553 in third-place MVP season in 2022 — but the six-time Platinum Glove winner remains a premium defender with excellent contact skills. That sets something of a high floor, while the money left on his contract means the asking price for Arenado (prospect-wise) won’t be exorbitant unless the Cardinals pay down a notable portion of the deal.

With Bohm, the asking price has appeared higher, at least in the Phillies’ early asks. They reportedly asked the Mariners about right-handers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in early talks regarding the longtime Philadelphia third baseman — an outlandish ask even coming off a solid season for Bohm. (That said, it stands to reason the Phillies would aim high early in any trade talks.)

Bohm, 28, hit .280/.332/.448 this past season, but the overwhelming majority of his production came in an outrageous April wherein he slashed .366/.438/.598. From May 1 onward, Bohm hit just .258/.303/.410 — slightly below league-average production. He’s long had negative defensive grades at third base but made strides in 2024 according to both Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4). Whether that’s sustainable will be a question interested clubs weigh carefully. Bohm is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in 2025 and is controllable through the 2026 season.

It’s not entirely clear that Suarez is available — Arenado and Bohm very much are — but the D-backs are a medium-payroll club with inhouse options to step up in the event that a deal comes together. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is all but MLB-ready, and young Blaze Alexander could take some reps at the hot corner alongside shortstop Geraldo Perdomo if the Snakes opt to give Lawlar a bit more seasoning in Triple-A.

At one point this season, Suarez even briefly looked to be losing the grip on his starting third base job to Alexander. Suarez caught fire shortly thereafter, however, and not only regained his form but was one of the game’s best hitters in the season’s final three months: .312/.357/.617, 24 home runs in his final 325 plate appearances from July 1 onward. That prompted the D-backs to exercise a $15MM club option. Suarez is a free agent following the season, though, and it’s feasible that the Diamondbacks could move him for some minor league talent, go with Alexander/Lawlar at third base in 2025, and reallocate Suarez’s salary to needs at first base, in the bullpen and on the bench. That’s speculative, but the fact that the Angels have at least checked in suggests the Diamondbacks didn’t expressly turn them away.

It seems clear that GM Perry Minasian is seeking upgrades at the hot corner, even with Anthony Rendon signed for another two seasons. Any of the three players listed here would fit the bill, given what the Halos received at third base last year (combined .217/.290/.311 batting line). That’s also true of Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres — another reported target of the Angels — but Fletcher adds that Bregman and perhaps even Torres might be out of the Angels’ price range at this point. That Torres might be too spendy doesn’t bode well for an Arenado acquisition (again, barring financial help from the Cards), but Bohm and Suarez seem feasible.

Phillies Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Patrick Sandoval

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According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.

Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.

From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.

Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.

Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.

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