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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS.  This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.

Guaranteed Contracts

2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games.  Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.

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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2026

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The Phillies expressed their continued confidence in manager Rob Thomson and his coaching staff today, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealing that Thomson has been extended through the 2026 season and his full staff will return in 2025 (per reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson’s previous contract ran through the 2025 campaign, so it would have left him in lame duck limbo entering next season. As for the rest of the coaches, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Phillies were holding “evaluation meetings” in which they would decide whether or not to make any changes to the coaching staff. Evidently, the team’s top decision makers came away from those meetings feeling good about the group of coaches that has led the club to three consecutive postseason appearances.

Thomson took over as the Phillies’ manager partway through the 2022 season, replacing his long-time boss Joe Girardi. A baseball lifer, Thomson had no big league managerial experience at the time, but he had been a major league coach for the Yankees and Phillies since 2004 and a minor league coach and manager (and briefly a front office executive) since 1988. Over parts of three seasons at the helm in Philadelphia, he has led the team to a 250-185 (.575) record, two Wild Card berths, one NL East division title, and one NL pennant. The Phillies have also gone 20-14 in the playoffs under his leadership.

While this year’s postseason run ended much sooner than the Phillies and their fans might have anticipated, there was little reason to think a change was in order atop the dugout steps. That being said, it’s noteworthy that Thomson has now received one-year extensions in back-to-back offseasons. Clearly, the organization doesn’t want him managing as a lame duck, but at the same time, they have been hesitant to give him a long-term deal.

Slightly more surprising than Thomson’s extension is the fact that his full coaching staff will remain intact next season. After all, it’s quite common for a coach or two to get the scapegoat treatment after a season ends in disappointment. However, it’s important to remember how well the Phillies played over the 162-game regular season and not just their poor performance in the NLDS. They were above-average in just about every aspect of the game, including hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding. That’s not to say there’s no room for improvement, but Dombrowski appears to be sticking with an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. That approach worked well this past season, in which the Phillies ran it back with nearly the exact same roster and coaching staff they had the year before and managed to improve by five games.

The Phillies coaching staff includes pitching coach Caleb Cotham, assistant pitching coach/director of pitching development Brian Kaplan, hitting coach Kevin Long, bench coach Mike Calitri, third base coach Dusty Wathan, first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa, and infield coach Bobby Dickerson, among others. Interestingly, all seven of those coaches joined the staff before Thomson took over as skipper. Managers often like to put together their own group of coaches, but Thomson seems happy working alongside the staff he inherited.

Eight Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Pitchers

Phillies Notes: Realmuto, Outfield, Thomson

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters (including Matt Gelb of The Atheltic) during his end-of-season press conference today regarding the club’s plans headed into 2025 after a disappointing end to their season that saw them knocked out of the NLDS by the division rival Mets in four games. With the club’s entire lineup and starting rotation under team control for 2025, at first glance it may seem as though the Phillies don’t have many obvious places where they can improve. That won’t stop the club’s front office from looking for upgrades, however, as Gelb relays comments from Dombrowski about being “open-minded” and “exploring” possibilities when other teams inevitably come calling this winter.

That could mean making changes to the players on the roster, of course, but one possible change Dombrowski highlighted could come internally: less of J.T. Realmuto behind the plate. The 33-year-old veteran has spent the past six seasons in Philadelphia and is entering the final year of his contract with the club in 2025. The three-time All-Star finished in the top seven of NL MVP voting as recently as 2022 and has been an above average hitter in every season he’s spent with the Phillies, but also endured one of the worst seasons of his career in 2024.

The veteran backstop missed just over a month after undergoing knee surgery in June, and while he posted a solid .266/.322/.429 (109 wRC+) slash line in the 99 games he did play, he did so with lackluster defensive numbers behind the plate that stand in sharp contrast to the reputation he earned as one of the game’s elite defensive catchers earlier in his career. Realmuto’s blocking and framing were both well below average per Statcast, and Fangraphs’s Defense metric rated him as just the tenth most valuable defender of 16 catchers with at least 400 plate appearances this year. Given Realmuto’s waning defensive value behind the plate and the possibility that more rest could help him stay healthy and productive, it’s not entirely a surprise that the club would consider broaching the possibility of Realmuto taking on less of the team’s catching duties with the veteran.

With that being said, however, the possibility of Realmuto playing less frequently behind the plate raises questions about whether he’ll spent the extra time playing elsewhere in the lineup or on the bench. It’s hardly unheard of for even the most well-regarded veteran catchers to start spending more time at DH or first base as they enter their mid-30’s, with Royals veteran Salvador Perez (who played just 91 of his 158 games in 2024 at catcher) standing out as a prime example. That may be easier said than done for the Phillies, though, as the club currently has Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber installed at first base and DH on a regular basis. Both sluggers have experience in the outfield and could theoretically play left field on occasion to free up time away from catcher for Realmuto, though it’s unclear if the Phillies are willing to move either star out of their usual position to accommodate Realmuto.

Finding playing time away from catcher for Realmuto could be even more complicated depending on how the club looks to overhaul its outfield mix. Dombrowski indicated that both Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos figure to feature prominently in their outfield mix next year, but he did not offer those same guarantees to Johan Rojas after a disappointing season where he posted a lackluster 68 wRC+ in 363 trips to the plate. If the club plans to move Rojas into something closer to a fourth outfielder role, they’d have the ability to make an addition in either left or center field, depending on their willingness to move Marsh back to center on a regular basis after he started just 35 games at the position in 2024.

While a pursuit of superstar outfielder and top free agent Juan Soto would be a shock for a Phillies club that already has lots of money tied up in a number of star players, the coming outfield class is deep in interesting bats such as Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and (depending on his player option decision) Cody Bellinger who could slide into the club’s outfield mix to improve the offense. Of course, any addition to the outfield mix would only serve to further limit the club’s flexibility in playing Realmuto away from the catcher position, but that could be well worth it if it meant upgrading the offense overall.

As the Phillies ponder where to make changes this winter, one place that won’t be happening is the dugout. Dombrowski revealed earlier today that manager Rob Thomson has been extended through the end of the 2026 season, adding an additional year to a contract that otherwise would have left the skipper a lame duck headed into next season. When discussing his newest contract with reporters (including Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) Thomson made it clear that he expects Philadelphia to be the final stop in his lengthy coaching career. Thomson famously planned to retire following the 2022 season when he was still bench coach of the Phillies, but plans changed when the club fired then-manager Joe Girardi, promoted Thomson to the top job, and the club went on an improbable run to the World Series.

In all, the Phillies have posted a strong 250-185 record under Thomson’s management in the regular season, to go with a solid 20-11 record in postseason games after the club made it to the playoffs in all three years he’s been at the helm. In spite of all that success, however, the 61-year-old hardly seems interested in committing to a lengthy tenure in the Phillies dugout as March relays that Thomson plans to take things year-by-year after his latest contract expires following the 2026 season. That’s hardly an unheard of arrangement for veteran managers, with Rockies skipper Bud Black standing out as a notable current example of a manager who has taken a number of one-year extensions rather than work out a longer-term arrangement, including one just last week.

Andrew Painter Begins Arizona Fall League Stint

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  • Andrew Painter’s first outing in the Arizona Fall League saw the Phillies prospect allow two runs over 29 pitches and two innings of work, with Jack Vita of the Philadelphia Inquirer noting that three of Painter’s fastballs hit the 100mph threshold.  It was the first game action of any kind for Painter since Spring Training 2023, when he suffered a UCL sprain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery that July.  “The arm’s healthy and that was the biggest takeaway,” Painter told Vita and other reporters.  “Everything felt like it was coming out good.  I felt like my old self, so that’s all I can really take away from that.”  While the surgery halted the progress of one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Painter should be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025, though obviously the Phillies will be cautious with his development.  Painter is slated to throw 20 innings in AFL play and will start next season in the minors — the right-hander has yet to reach the Triple-A level and has only 28 1/3 frames of experience in Double-A ball.

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

Phillies Notes: Outfield, Hoffman, Coaching Staff

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The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.

Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.

Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.

The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.

Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.

Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.

If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.

A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.

After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.

Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”

Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.

Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

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Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

 

 

Division Series Roster Notes: Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers

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We’ve already covered some notable roster additions for the Guardians and Mets as the Division Series begins, and the Royals are sticking with the same 26 players used in the Wild Card Series against the Orioles.  Now that all eight teams in the LDS rounds have revealed their rosters, here are the details…

  • The Padres made two changes from their NLDS roster, adding left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Alek Jacob and removing Joe Musgrove and infielder Nick Ahmed.  Musgrove was obviously out due to his impending Tommy John surgery, while replacing Ahmed with a pitcher gives San Diego 13 pitchers to go with 13 position players.  Perez is one of five southpaws on San Diego’s roster, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (X link) was among those who noted that the Padres are guarding themselves as best they can against Shohei Ohtani and other powerful left-handed Dodgers bats.
  • The Dodgers will go with an even mix of 13 batters and 13 pitchers, and rookie Edgardo Henriquez has made the list of available arms.  Henriquez only made his MLB debut on September 24 and he has played in just three games as a big leaguer, but Los Angeles will give the hard-throwing righty a look in October to add some velocity to the bullpen.  It’s probably safe to assume that Henriquez wouldn’t have made the cut if the Dodgers weren’t ravaged by pitching injuries, yet the rookie also got the nod over veteran Joe Kelly, who had an inconsistent year but was pitching well after returning from the IL in mid-September.  On the position player side, L.A. didn’t include either Kevin Kiermaier or James Outman, so Andy Pages will be the only true backup outfielder along with utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor in the bench mix.
  • The Phillies will use 14 position players and 12 pitchers in their NLDS matchup with the Mets, with left-hander Kolby Allard joining the relief corps.  Allard has worked as something of a swingman throughout his career, and this ability of covering multiple innings earned Allard the spot, as manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com’s Paul Casella and other reporters.  “He’s going to probably give us the most length if we get into an extra-inning game….so I just wanted as much length as we could get,” Thomson said.  Utilityman Weston Wilson also got the Phils’ last bench spot, as Casella observes that Wilson brings more positional versatility than outfielder Cal Stevenson.
  • The Yankees went heavier on position players (15) than pitchers (11) for their ALDS roster against the Royals.  Anthony Rizzo is missing the series due to two broken fingers and DJ LeMahieu wasn’t yet activated from the injured list, but New York still has plenty of room on its bench, including pinch-running specialist Duke Ellis.  The Yankees appear to be loading up on bats to take on the Royals’ tough rotation and more porous bullpen, which left right-hander Marcus Stroman off the ALDS roster as the odd man out of the starting staff.
  • The Tigers made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, as rookie righty Keider Montero has been included in place of Casey Mize.  Montero posted a 4.76 ERA over 98 1/3 innings in his first Major League season, starting 16 of 19 games.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Montero will start against the Guardians in the ALDS, however, as Detroit’s pitching staff (apart from ace Tarik Skubal) is very malleable in terms of specific roles.
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