Blake Snell

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2024 at 3:08pm CDT

The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

Red Sox, Dodgers Have Met With Blake Snell

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2024 at 9:27am CDT

Juan Soto’s meetings with owners around the leagues have dominated headlines recently, but he’s not the only high-profile free agent or Scott Boras client setting up meetings with team contingents. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that left-hander Blake Snell has held recent meetings with both the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Blue Jays are also pursuing Snell, per Rosenthal’s report, and could soon set up a meeting of their own. The Orioles are another potential club who could do so.

Both Boston and Los Angeles have reason to be in on high-end rotation help this summer, and the 32-year-old Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, clearly fits the billing. Similarly, Snell has good motivation to push for a swifter free agency than last offseason, after lingering on the market into spring training and signing a two-year deal with an opt-out in San Francisco less than two weeks before Opening Day.

For the Red Sox, Snell would add a No. 1 starter to the top of a rotation that could lose Nick Pivetta to free agency after he rejected a qualifying offer. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all rotation locks right now. Lucas Giolito will join them at some point in the season’s first half, but his timeline remains murky after he missed the entire 2024 season — his first in Boston — thanks to UCL surgery performed in spring training. Righty Garrett Whitlock is also on the mend from his own UCL procedure.

Candidates for the final two rotation spots at Fenway Park currently include Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and Zach Penrod. Criswell looked to have a leg up after a decent season, due to a lack of minor league options, but he’s reportedly eligible for a fourth option year, which gives the Sox even more flexibility with their staff.

Many Red Sox fans are understandably skeptical of the team’s willingness to follow through on pursuits of high-profile free agents. Boston faithful are still stinging from chairman Tom Werner’s widely mocked “full throttle” comments last offseason, which did not result in an acquisition larger than Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has taken a more aggressive stance himself this time around, declaring that it’s time for the Red Sox to “deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East” even if that means the Sox need to be “aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization.”

From a payroll perspective, the Red Sox have more than enough space to accommodate multiple big-ticket additions this winter. RosterResource currently projects Boston for a $138MM payroll and $171MM worth of luxury obligations. That projection is nearly $100MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, while their luxury ledger right now leaves them $70MM shy of the first tier threshold. Of course, the Red Sox haven’t been shy about paying the luxury tax in the past, either. They did so as recently as 2022 and have now reset their penalty level by dipping back under the tax line. The Red Sox have an extremely small arbitration class — just Houck, Crawford and Jarren Duran — and will only add Triston Casas, Connor Wong and perhaps Zack Kelly to that group in 2026.

Turning to the Dodgers, there’s an obvious case for Snell as a fit. Connections like this can often be more anecdotal than substantive, but it at least bears mentioning that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was running baseball operations in Tampa Bay when the Rays drafted and developed Snell. Outside their deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — two players with unique free agent circumstances — the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term, high-AAV deals in free agency. That could make Snell, whose maximum contract length is perhaps shorter than other top-tier starters because he’s about to turn 32 years old, a more typical “Dodgers” fit.

One deterrent for the Dodgers could be an already bloated luxury-tax bill. RosterResource pegs them at $270MM in obligations, meaning they’re already well into the second tier of penalty. Snell alone could push them into the fourth tier, particularly on a high-AAV short-term deal. Even using last year’s $31MM AAV as a hypothetical guideline — and Snell has a case for a higher one on another relatively short deal — Snell would cost the Dodgers nearly $57MM in year one of the contract. That’d also set the Dodgers up to pay a 110% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Trades and non-tenders could lessen the sting, but likely not by much. Any free agent dollars spent by the Dodgers are going to hurt.

Still, the Dodgers likely feel they need to bite that bullet. The rotation in Los Angeles has nearly unmatched star power but similarly has nearly unrivaled question marks. Yamamoto, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow make up a potentially dominant top three, but health concerns abound. Yamamoto missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in 2024. Glasnow was limited to only 22 starts last year, and his modest 134 innings represented a career-high. Ohtani didn’t pitch while recovering from the second UCL repair of his career.

Beyond that talented but risky top three are Tony Gonsolin (who missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery), Dustin May (who missed all of 2024 recovering from forearm surgery and an esophageal procedure) and Bobby Miller (a breakout 2023 rookie who struggled immensely in 2024). Highly touted young arms like Gavin Stone (shoulder surgery), River Ryan (Tommy John surgery), Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) will miss some or all of the 2025 season. Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw will be back on some form of incentive-laden deal — he’s already declared as much — though the two parties have yet to come to specific terms. Kershaw started just seven games last year.

Snell, of course, has his own lengthy injury history — including a pair of groin and adductor injuries that limited him to six awful starts in the season’s first two months with the archrival Giants. However, upon returning in early July, the lefty looked back to Cy Young form. He fired 12 shutout frames between his first two starts, kicking off a three-month run for the ages. Snell tossed a no-hitter at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park against the Reds, fanned 15 Rockies in a start at Coors Field and at one point went on a streak of four double-digit strikeout performances in five starts.

Over the final three months of the season, Snell was comically dominant. He pitched 80 1/3 innings with a jaw-dropping 1.23 ERA, complemented by an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that’s higher than average but passable for someone who can miss bats at Snell’s level. It was only 14 starts, but Snell was the best pitcher in baseball from July 2 onward.

Snell has a history of slow starts and blistering second-half surges, but as I examined late in the season for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, many of his first-half struggles have come in conjunction with unusual spring circumstances (i.e. the shortened 2020 season, the accelerated ramp-up from the 2021-22 lockout, and signing in late March last year). True, there are pitchers who’ve succeeded in spite of similar circumstances, but we’ve also repeatedly seen late-signing pitchers struggle early in the year (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, to name a few). It’s eminently possible that Snell is the type of pitcher who simply needs a full runway to realize his best form. He’d hardly be alone in that regard, and that characteristic gives him all the more motivation to have a deal in place well before spring training begins.

Snell faces some notable competition on the free agent market. Some clubs may not want to spend aggressively on another free agent before they know the outcome of the Juan Soto auction, and even those willing to spend sooner than that will also have to weigh the merits of signing a 32-year-old Snell versus a 31-year-old Max Fried, 30-year-old Corbin Burnes or 29-year-old Jack Flaherty. Fried and Burnes have qualifying offers attached to them, whereas Snell and Flaherty do not; in other words, teams will have to forfeit draft picks and international bonus pool space to sign Fried or Burnes — but not Snell or Flaherty. Snell is three years older than Flaherty but also more accomplished. He certainly has his warts and carries plenty of risk, but it’s easy enough to see how a club could view Snell as the most appealing of this offseason’s top-tier starters when factoring in likely length of contract, draft compensation, track record, health and other factors.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

By Darragh McDonald | November 8, 2024 at 5:15pm CDT

Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Blake Snell Opts Out Of Deal With Giants

By Darragh McDonald | November 1, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

Left-hander Blake Snell has exercised the opt-out provision in his contract and is now a free agent. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.

The news is not at all surprising. Snell was a free agent a year ago and didn’t find the contract he was seeking, despite the fact that he was coming off a Cy Young campaign in 2023.

He eventually signed with the Giants on a two-year pact with a $62MM guarantee. That came in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus for 2024, with a $30MM salary for 2025 if Snell stayed.

The opt-out after the first year was clearly there to give Snell a chance to take another shot at free agency if he could stay healthy and engineer another strong season in 2024.

For a while, it seemed like that wasn’t going to come to pass. Perhaps due to the fact that he didn’t sign until the middle of March and had a delayed spring training, he stumbled out of the gate in 2024 and also suffered a few injuries. At the end of June, he was on the injured list for the second time, the first one labeled as a left adductor strain and the second as a left groin strain. He had a 9.51 earned run average in the six starts he was able to make.

But he came back shortly after that and was completely dominant the rest of the way. He posted a 1.23 ERA in his final 14 starts of the year. His 10% walk rate was a tad high but he struck out 38.1% of batters faced.

Snell has had a few injury absences over the years but has continually demonstrated himself to be one of the best pitchers on the planet when on the mound. From 2018 until the present day, he has a 3.03 ERA and 32.1% strikeout rate, both of which are top ten numbers among qualified starters for that stretch. Among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched over the past two years, only Tarik Skubal has a lower ERA than Snell’s 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate in that time is also second best, a hair below Tyler Glasnow’s 32.8% rate.

Given that elite performance, it was widely expected that Snell would return to free agency in the hopes of a finding a more robust market this time around. He will be one of the top starting pitchers available alongside Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. Snell is leaving $30MM on the table but should be able to blow past that with a nine-figure deal of some kind.

NL West Notes: Gonsolin, Freeman, Bryant, Snell

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2024 at 2:43pm CDT

Unless “something really unforeseen” happens, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that Tony Gonsolin probably isn’t going to be part of the team’s postseason roster. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery about 13 months ago and was considered a longshot to pitch any big league innings this season, though Gonsolin did return in time to pitch 7 2/3 innings over three Triple-A rehab appearances. As Roberts implied to the Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris and other reporters, however, Gonsolin is still viewed by the Dodgers as something of an emergency option, as it would be asking a lot of any pitcher who go from a year of inactivity right into the tension of important postseason relief innings.

While Gonsolin likely won’t factor into the L.A. playoff plans, Roberts was less concerned about Freddie Freeman’s bad ankle, as the manager was very optimistic Freeman would be ready for the start of the NLDS a week from today. Freeman suffered a sprained ankle in the Dodgers’ 7-2 win over the Padres on Thursday, and was seen on crutches and in a walking boot later that night. X-rays were negative on the ankle, however, and Freeman benefits from some extra time off before the Dodgers play their first postseason game.

Farhan Zaidi Discusses Job Security, Snell, Middle Infield

By Anthony Franco | September 25, 2024 at 12:05am CDT

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters this evening. San Francisco pulled back to .500 with a win over the Diamondbacks tonight, but they missed the playoffs for the fifth time in Zaidi’s six-season tenure. That has led to speculation about his job security — which only ratcheted up in recent weeks amidst conflicting reports about ownership’s role in handling negotiations on Matt Chapman’s $151MM extension.

Zaidi declined to speculate about his job status but acknowledged that ownership is considering its options. “Anytime you have a disappointing season, it’s my job to evaluate everything in my purview, and it’s their job to evaluate everything in my purview, plus me,” the baseball ops leader said (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “And so I think that process is happening, and I understand it.”

The Giants and Zaidi agreed to an extension last winter that coincided with Bob Melvin’s hiring as manager. Both the manager and baseball operations leader are on guaranteed contracts for next year with options for the 2026 season. That certainly doesn’t ensure job security — teams regularly dismiss coaches or executives before the end of their deals — but it kept Zaidi from operating on a lame duck basis in 2024.

Any doubt about his status with the organization can’t stop Zaidi from planning the team’s approach to the upcoming offseason. That starts with Blake Snell, who has pitched at a Cy Young level for the better part of four months. The star left-hander is set to decline his $30MM player option and take another shot at a long-term contract.

Zaidi admitted the Giants expect Snell to opt out. He said the Giants will remain in the market but conceded they’ll face stiff competition. “I think it’s going to be a priority for everybody. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball the second half of the season,” Zaidi said of Snell’s market (relayed by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “And I think he’s going into free agency the same way he did last offseason. He wants to keep an open mind. We’re encouraged about what he said about how much he likes being here, how much he likes San Francisco and playing for Bob. We’ll be pretty high on his list, but we’re respecting the fact that he’s going to want to play out free agency.”

Snell turns 32 in December. He’ll probably take aim at a six-plus year deal that approaches $200MM. That kind of investment in starting pitching would be out of character for Zaidi. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Giants haven’t gone beyond the $90MM Logan Webb extension for a starting pitcher. The $62MM guarantee they awarded Snell late last winter is their biggest free agent rotation investment.

The Giants have been much more comfortable with short-term upside plays for starting pitchers who want to retest the market than they are with lengthy commitments. That operating procedure made them a strong fit when Snell’s market didn’t materialize the way he’d envisioned last winter, but it’ll present a challenge to keeping him around. San Francisco was content to let Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón walk after striking gold on short-term plays for both pitchers.

If Snell were to depart, Webb would retake his spot as the unquestioned staff ace. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray (who is unlikely to opt out of the $50MM remaining on his contract). The Giants could try to stretch Jordan Hicks back out as a starter while giving opportunities to younger arms like Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Keaton Winn. They’d surely add to that group in some capacity after dealing with a number of rotation injuries this season.

Zaidi also addressed the position player mix, specifically saying the Giants will “definitely be in the middle-infield market” (via Rubin). Tyler Fitzgerald has had a fantastic rookie season since taking over at shortstop. The Louisville product connected on his 15th homer tonight and is up to a .287/.338/.510 batting line through 325 plate appearances. His 31.1% strikeout rate is cause for some concern, but Fitzgerald’s power and defensive flexibility have earned him a role somewhere on the diamond.

That could come on the other side of the second base bag. The Giants waived Thairo Estrada last month after he hit .217/.247/.343 in 96 games. Estrada will be a minor league free agent at season’s end. Zaidi lauded Estrada’s professionalism and expressed some confidence that the infielder could rebound in another setting, but he indicated the Giants will go in a different direction.

Moving Fitzgerald to second base while bringing in an established shortstop is an option. Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim are the potential regulars in the free agent class. Zaidi expressed a desire to add “an established, plus defender in the middle infield” via free agency or trade. Adames and Kim would each fit the bill (although the former has had an uncharacteristic spike in errors this season). Both players are going to decline qualifying offers from their current teams and would require draft pick forfeiture. Adames might command a guarantee north of $150MM, while Kim’s deal could land in the $75-100MM range.

Bo Bichette has been the top speculative shortstop trade target. The Blue Jays didn’t seem inclined to move him even before he went on the injured list just before the deadline. Unless the Toronto front office reverses course, they probably won’t sell low during the winter.

There aren’t a ton of obvious middle infield trade candidates. The Reds may listen on Jonathan India, but he’s not the caliber of defender to which Zaidi alluded. That’s also the case with Tampa Bay second baseman Brandon Lowe. The Pirates would probably listen on Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose offensive production has cratered since a deadline trade with Toronto. There’s a chance the Mariners could move on from J.P. Crawford as they try to reshape their offense.

A free agent pursuit of Adames or Kim, though, would be more straightforward. That’d allow the Giants to use Casey Schmitt in a utility capacity and potentially free them to play Marco Luciano in the outfield. Zaidi said tonight that they’re not closing the door on Luciano winning the second base job, but they’ll need to see improvement (especially defensively) next spring for that to happen.

One area where the Giants don’t seem inclined to make a long-term play: first base. Zaidi indicated the team was reluctant to make an investment that would impede the path for top prospect Bryce Eldridge, their 2023 first-round pick. Eldridge is still a month shy of his 20th birthday, but he mashed at a .335/.442/.619 clip in High-A. He has made cameos at the top two minor league levels, and while he’s unlikely to break camp next year, Zaidi suggested there’s a path for him to debut at some point in 2025.

“Once a guy is in Double-A, Triple-A, they’re in the picture,” Zaidi said (relayed by Baggarly). “I think it behooves us to have a roster that’s flexible enough that if he’s ready next year, even early in the year, there’s a spot for him. So that’s going to be really important for us. I don’t anticipate us really locking up the first base and DH spot.” There’s a solid group of free agent first basemen, headlined by Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but that doesn’t appear to be a priority for San Francisco.

Of course, these preliminary plans could go in any number of directions if ownership decides to make a front office change. That should be determined within the next few weeks. Giants fans will want to check out both The Athletic and The Chronicle columns in full for more quotes from Zaidi about his vision for the winter.

Giants Notes: Snell, Yastrzemski, Conforto

By Steve Adams | September 13, 2024 at 2:32pm CDT

The Giants already extended one potential free agent by when they inked third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151MM contract that overrode the remaining two years and $34MM on his previous pact and negated the opt-out clause he was sure to exercise. Now, the recruiting pitch for another likely opt-out candidate is on. Giants righty Logan Webb appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast this week and suggested he’s doing everything he can to convince Blake Snell to re-sign on a longer-term deal and plant roots in the Bay Area (YouTube link, with Snell talk beginning at the 18:15 mark). Asked by Rose how he can help make sure Snell is back with the Giants in 2025, Webb replied:

I’m going to do everything [I can]. I don’t know how that’s all going to work out. I kind of hope they do what they did with Chappy — start conversations now, so we’re not bidding against other teams. I’m sure there’s teams in our division that are going to try hard to get him. Teams need good starting pitching, and he’s been the best in baseball since the beginning of July. It’s been awesome to watch, and he’s one of my favorite teammates. Hopefully we do everything we can to get him back.

He didn’t have a spring training, right? … He was kind of scuffling. I think he was doubting himself a little bit. And then, all of a sudden, look what happens when he gains some confidence. He’s back to Blake Snell. He’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Not many guys are two-time Cy Young Award winners, and you can see it when he throws. He’s throwing pellets. It’s unbelievable, as a lefty. I don’t know how anybody hits this. We’ve got to do everything we can to get him back. I do think he should be a big part of our future going forward.

Webb noted to Rose that he doesn’t plan to campaign to the front office in unprompted manner — though public-facing comments of this nature are in a way indirectly doing so — but would offer his opinions and any feedback if asked. It’s clear that Webb, a perennial Cy Young candidate himself, values Snell’s on-field contributions as well as the left-hander’s presence in the clubhouse.

The assertion that Snell has been baseball’s best arm dating back to early July is hard to argue, too. Snell’s no-hitter gained plenty of attention, but as I explored in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers a couple weeks ago, Snell has picked up his annual second-half momentum and looks to be back in Cy Young form. He obviously won’t win the award this season after a dismal start to the season that included him twice landing on the injured list, but since returning from his latest IL stint on July 9, Snell has a 1.45 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He’s punched out a gaudy 36.5% of his opponents, offsetting a higher-than-average 10.5% walk rate, and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 12 starts (the exception being a three-run, six-inning quality start on Aug. 7).

That run of dominance makes Snell’s opt-out an easy call — the alternative would be a $30MM player option for the 2025 season — but it’s not clear whether the front office has engaged with agent Scott Boras (who also reps Chapman). The Giants have been reluctant to make weighty long-term offers to free agent pitchers under the current front office regime. Webb’s five-year, $90MM extension is the largest contract the Giants have given to a pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in both years and dollars. They haven’t signed a free agent for more than three years (Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM deal) or for more than a total of $44MM (Carlos Rodon’s two-year deal). Snell should breeze past both marks.

Snell isn’t the only Giant whose future is uncertain, of course. The Giants have a wide slate of potential free agents but also some borderline arbitration calls. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski spoke with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about his own status. The 34-year-old is owed a raise on his $7.9MM salary this offseason and has turned in a fairly typical season by his standards, slashing .237/.310/.441 with 15 home runs and quality defense in right field.

Yastrzemski has been a fine value at his current salary, but an arb raise could push him north of $10MM. For a player in his mid-30s who’s unlikely to return to his standout 2019-20 form, that could be present a difficult decision as the non-tender deadline approaches in November — particularly since the Giants have a number of younger outfield options. Heliot Ramos has solidified himself in the 2025 outfield, and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will be back next year after undergoing shoulder surgery that ended his season back in May. Grant McCray, 23, has looked a bit over his head in 85 plate appearances so far (.247 OBP, 41% strikeout rate), but he had a decent showing in Triple-A this year. He and/or Luis Matos could push into the picture next season.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Yastrzemski is more of a part-time player, but his salary could be steep for that role. He made clear to Slusser he hopes to be back, however, even mentioning a willingness to sign a two-year deal that’d lower his contract’s average annual value. We don’t typically see players heading into their final arbitration season voice willingness to sign for only two years, but Yastrzemski is older than most players with five-plus years of service and also spoke of how he’s “grown so in love with” the organization, the stadium, the clubhouse and the city itself.

Slusser also adds that outfielder Michael Conforto, a free agent at season’s end, is hoping to return to San Francisco. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where both Yastrzemski and Conforto are back next year, however, as the Giants will want to earmark playing time for Ramos and Lee and surely want to leave the door open for at-bats for younger outfielders like McCray and Matos. One of Conforto or Yastrzemski, at most, seems feasible.

The 31-year-old Conforto has never regained his star-level form after undergoing shoulder surgery two years ago, but he’s popped 16 homers for the Giants this season while batting .229/.307/.430. He’s been about 7% better than average after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+, but he’s also sitting on the lowest full-season walk rate of his career (9.3%) and his highest strikeout rate (25%) since 2017.

Conforto likely won’t come close to the two-year, $36MM contract he received from the Giants two offseasons ago this time around. Familiarity with the player could prompt some interest in a reunion from the San Francisco front office, but he hasn’t been a handily above-average bat since 2020 at this point. A modest one- or two-year deal could be the outcome this offseason, and a Giants club hoping to establish more of an offensive identity moving forward might prefer to shuffle the lineup rather than largely maintain the status quo.

Second-Half Snell Is Doing It Again

By Steve Adams | August 30, 2024 at 3:04pm CDT

Over the course of any given calendar year, Major League Baseball is full of oddities. The Dodgers gave the largest pitching contract ever to a starting pitcher who'd never pitched in the majors. The Marlins waved the white flag on their season after about five weeks. Rich Hill signed his eighth career free agent deal with the Red Sox. Heck, Danny Jansen played in the same game for two different teams. All that said, Blake Snell has had one of the strangest calendar years of any player in the game.

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Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery Discuss Relationship With Scott Boras

By Darragh McDonald | August 26, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

The most recent offseason was undoubtedly disappointing for the players on the whole. Many of them signed deals well south of expectations, with the most high-profile examples being the so-called “Boras Four”. Each of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger, who are all represented by the Boras Corporation, lingered on the market deep into the offseason and ultimately signed deals below industry forecasts, though with opt-outs that will allow them to retest free agency in the future.

The two pitchers in that foursome evidently have different feelings about how this played out, based both on their actions and their words. Montgomery landed a one-year, $25MM deal with the Diamondbacks that didn’t become official until March 29. The deal also contained a $20MM vesting player option that Montgomery could unlock with at least ten starts in 2024, with his 18th and 23rd starts also adding $2.5MM to the option. On April 11, less than two weeks after that deal was signed, it was reported that Montgomery had switched his representation from Scott Boras to Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman.

“I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it,” Montgomery said last week, per Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald, “so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.” Montgomery adds that, to his knowledge, he didn’t receive an offer from the Red Sox in the winter.

“Yeah, for sure. Me and my wife loved it here. She was at Beth Israel for a year, love the area, love the fans,” Montgomery said when asked whether he would have considered an offer from the Sox. “It would have been awesome if it had worked out that way, but it didn’t.”

The Herald also received a comment from Boras himself in response. “I saw what Jordan said. I know what it is to be frustrated with this game. As a former player I feel for him. But I’m also a lawyer with obligations to my clients, including former ones. So I cannot discuss what happened or the decisions Jordan made unless he gives me permission,” Boras said. “If he gives me the green light I’ll be happy to talk about it. I’ve been doing this for over 35 years. I relay all offers and relevant information to all my clients and act at their direction. They make all decisions. We wish Jordan well.”

Montgomery was frequently connected to the Red Sox both because the club was in need of starting pitching and because his wife was working in the area, as he mentioned. Most reporting throughout the offseason suggested that the two sides weren’t close to agreeing on a deal. In early March, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the two sides were in contact but that Montgomery was looking for a seven-year deal that the Sox didn’t want to give out.

We can’t know for sure what sorts of discussions were taking place between Boras and the Red Sox, or any other teams, but Montgomery is clearly not thrilled with the way it played out. Not everyone places the blame on Boras though, as Blake Snell is still a Boras guy and defended him when asked about the Montgomery comments.

“My experience with Scott has been great,” Snell said yesterday, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. “He told me everything that was happening, all the offers I got. So for him to just get bashed for what I believe is false, that’s not fair at all. I really strongly believe that.”

When asked about Montgomery’s tough time, Snell responded thusly: “He signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

Boras has a lengthy track record of securing huge deals for his clients but it’s possible that he still could have whiffed on the recent offseason, which Snell was asked about. “Yeah, or it could just be a free agency where no one was really pushing to get anybody,” said Snell. “It sucks because that was … our year to get our deals that we worked so hard to get. But ultimately the market’s the market. You can’t control it. You can’t get upset about it the way it is. Just pitch better, find a way to do better, continue to compete. Whatever you believe you deserve, you go earn it.”

There is some logic to Snell’s framing of the winter, which was mostly defined by a lack of spending. Only four free agents got nine-figure deals in the winter, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, compared to nine in the previous offseason. Of the four from the most recent winter, three of them were fairly unique cases. One of those was the mega deal for Shohei Ohtani, who is an unprecedented talent. Two others were for 25-year-olds coming over from Asia: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The fourth was for Aaron Nola. The rest of the market was modest, with solid regulars like Amed Rosario, Jurickson Profar, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor and others getting $4MM or less. It would appear that Montgomery believes Boras could have handled that environment better while Snell simply views it as something that was beyond his control.

In addition to their differing opinions about the past, both players now appear to have divergent future. Montgomery has struggled badly with the Snakes this year and was recently moved to the bullpen. As of today, he has a 6.44 earned run average through 95 innings and 19 starts. Unless he turns things around dramatically in the coming weeks, it would appear his best course of action is to take his player option and hope for better results in 2025. By making at least 18 starts this year, he has unlocked that option and raised the value to $22.5MM.

Snell, on the other hand, has been on fire after a slow start. By the end of June, he had two stints on the injured list, six starts and a 9.51 ERA. But he came off the IL in early July and has posted a 1.30 ERA in his nine most recent starts, including a no-hitter against the Reds earlier in August. The lefty signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end. He could trigger a $30MM player option for 2025 but could also walk away with $32MM banked and then take another shot at free agency.

If he keeps putting up good numbers for the next few weeks, it’s highly likely that another trip to the open market is in the cards. Speaking of the rest of the season, Snell says that “I’ll enjoy those starts and make the most of them and we’ll figure out what happens after that later,” before adding that he has high confidence in Boras to handle whatever comes next. “Of course,” Snell said. “High confidence. Really high.”

Boras tends to be a polarizing figure in baseball circles, so the struggles of the “Boras Four” led to a lot of schadenfreude and declarations that he was “washed” or over the hill. However, Boras is well set up to be a key player in free agency again this winter. Snell, Chapman and Bellinger will all have chances to return to the open market, while Boras also represents big-name players slated for free agency this winter such as Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill, J.D. Martinez and many others. What those players will be entering another frosty market or not remains to be seen.

Dodgers, Rangers Had Interest In Blake Snell Prior To Trade Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 8, 2024 at 9:45pm CDT

Blake Snell was still wearing a San Francisco uniform once the July 30 trade deadline passed, as the Giants’ big asking price and the team’s own desire to retain its ace for the playoff hunt ended whatever chance existed of a blockbuster move. Reports linked such teams as the Orioles, Padres, Yankees, Mets, and Cubs to Snell’s market in some capacity, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Dodgers and Rangers also among the clubs “to check in” on Snell’s availability.

The degree of interest shown for either club isn’t known, and Heyman’s “check in” phrasing implies something of a due-diligence exploration to see how open the Giants might’ve been about moving Snell, and what it might’ve taken to land the southpaw. Snell would naturally be an upgrade to any rotation, particularly for teams like the Dodgers and Rangers who have been dealing with pitching injuries all season.

Considering how the Giants and Dodgers have made only two trades with each other since the 1968 season, it is hard to imagine San Francisco seriously considered dealing an ace pitcher to their arch-rivals down the California coast. Even though Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi worked as the Dodgers’ GM before being hired in his current job, it’s probably safe to guess that whatever talks Zaidi had with his old boss Andrew Friedman about Snell were fairly brief in nature. Los Angeles instead landed Jack Flaherty as its biggest pitching prize of deadline season, and will be counting on Flaherty and some injured pitchers returning from the IL to bolster the staff heading down the stretch and into October.

Landing Snell would’ve completely overturned an otherwise quiet deadline for Texas, as the Rangers brought Andrew Chafin and Carson Kelly into the fold in separate trades with the Tigers, while Michael Lorenzen was dealt to the Royals. The modest set of moves underscored the Rangers’ uncertainty about making a push with a roster that has underachieved for most of the season. Texas had gotten up to a 51-52 record on July 25, but have since lost nine of their last 12 games, probably closing the door on a defense of their World Series title.

Similar to the Dodgers, Texas has also been playing without most of its first-choice rotation for the better part of the year. Several arms were slated to make returns at midseason, but Max Scherzer’s return was short-lived, and other pitchers (such as Jon Gray) have since gotten hurt in the interim. A win-now move like acquiring Snell might’ve backfired if the rest of the roster wasn’t up to par, so it could be that the Rangers also had something of a cursory interest in Snell’s services.

Beyond just this trade deadline, however, these teams’ interest in Snell could extend to the offseason. Snell can opt out of the second year of his Giants contract to re-enter free agency, which now seems to be likely given Snell’s incredible results since returning from the IL last month. (As Heyman hears from two rival general managers, “it would take a ’catastrophic’ or ’debilitating’ injury for Snell to exercise” his 2025 player option and remain in San Francisco.) Texas has a lot of money coming off the books this winter and Los Angeles is always open to signing top free agents, so these could be two teams to monitor if and when Snell hits the open market.

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