Blake Snell

NL West Notes: Snell, Rushing, Senzatela

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 7, 2024 at 10:32am CDT

Blake Snell’s free agency was one of the top — and most drawn-out — storylines of the 2023-24 offseason. After lingering on the market well into spring training despite having just won his second Cy Young Award, he inked a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that affords him the ability to opt out and return to the open market again this offseason (this time without a qualifying offer). Snell’s decision to eventually settle on a two-year pact with San Francisco came months after a reported overture from the Yankees, who pivoted to sign Marcus Stroman after Snell rejected a longer-term offer.

At the time, MLB.com reported that the Yankees had put forth a six-year, $150MM offer to Snell, which he purportedly spurned in hopes of landing a lengthier deal. Snell himself was asked about the reported terms in a recent appearance with hosts Scott Braun, A.J. Pierzynski and Cameron Maybin on Foul Territory (video link). While the two-time Cy Young winner declined to delve into specifics, he stated in no uncertain terms that the numbers which became public were not accurate.

“The deal that came out — that wasn’t what was offered to me,” said Snell. “I can say that. … What they offered wasn’t close to that.”

Snell understandably wasn’t keen on going into specifics, which is common practice for players and executives alike when discussing free-agent interest. (Although Teoscar Hernandez notably divulged the Red Sox’ offer to him in a recent interview.) At this point, the specifics matter little; Snell seemed like a long-shot to join the Yankees once they added Stroman and pushed themselves into the top tier of luxury-tax penalization, meaning Snell would’ve come with a 110% tax hit (thus making his current $31MM AAV an expenditure north of $65MM). He signed with the Giants, and after a disastrous and injury-marred start to his San Francisco tenure, he looks largely back to Cy Young form.

Snell’s upcoming player option will mark a fascinating decision. If he continues at his current post-IL pace or anywhere near it (33 innings, 0.55 ERA, 36.3 K%, 8.8 BB%), he’ll surely turn down that second year and look for a long-term pact. He’s recently blanked the Rockies while punching out 15 batters over six frames and, of course, threw a no-hitter against the Reds his last time out. However, if he begins to struggle or incurs further injuries, there’ll be more consideration given to the second season of the contract. Few finishes in baseball will be more intriguing to follow than that of Snell.

Some other notes from the National League West division…

The Dodgers recently promoted catching prospect Dalton Rushing from Double-A to Triple-A and his new team seems to come with a new assignment. Oklahoma City manager Travis Barbary says Rushing will exclusively be playing left field for now, per broadcaster Alex Freedman on X. The move is likely related to the fact that the Dodgers won’t have any playing time available behind the plate for a while. Will Smith recently signed an extension that runs through 2033. He’s essentially locked into the backstop role because Shohei Ohtani will be the designated hitter through 2033 while Freddie Freeman has first base locked up through 2027. Even after trading Thayron Liranzo in the Jack Flaherty deal, the Dodgers have two top 100 catching prospects in Rushing and Diego Cartaya, but Cartaya is considered the better defender with Rushing considered better at the plate. It’s been speculated that the club might deal from this catching surplus but it also seems they’re experimenting with Rushing at other positions to improve his chances of cracking the roster. He has logged some first base time as well as 35 innings in left field in Double-A and he now seems set to add to that total at Triple-A. Before the promotion, he hit 17 home runs in 77 Double-A games and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances, slashing .270/.378/.512 for a wRC+ of 147. If he can generate that kind of offense in the majors or anything close to it, his bat will play at any position.
Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela is going to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday, per Patrick Lyons of Just Baseball on X. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery just over a year ago, in July of 2023. His return won’t have a huge impact on this season as the Rockies are 42-72, ahead of only the lowly White Sox. But getting back on the mound before the offseason would be a nice development as the club looks to have a much stronger rotation in 2025 that could consist of Senzatela, Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner. Senzatela and Márquez both underwent Tommy John surgery last year and have missed most of this season while Freeland also missed a couple of months due to a left elbow strain. Márquez was reinstated last month but went back on the IL due to elbow inflammation.

NL West Notes: Snell, Musgrove, Muncy, Blackmon

By Mark Polishuk | August 3, 2024 at 12:13pm CDT

Blake Snell made some more baseball history last night when the two-time Cy Young Award winner threw a no-hitter against the Reds. The 18th no-hit game in the history of the New York/San Francisco Giants franchise, Snell’s gem saw him rack up 11 strikeouts against three walks on 114 pitches. It was also the first time Snell had ever thrown eight full innings in any of his 202 career starts, let alone a complete game.

The no-no continues what has now become one of the better pitching stretches of all time. Snell has an 0.55 ERA over his last five starts (33 IP), in what has been an incredible turn-around after an injury-plagued first half of the season. Signing with the Giants only in the midpoint of March, the lack of a proper Spring Training resulted in Snell posting a 9.51 ERA in his first 23 2/3 innings and six starts, as well a pair of trips to the injured list. It was after his latest return from the IL that Snell began his amazing five-start run, capped off with his legendary game yesterday in Cincinnati. While the Giants received plenty of trade interest in Snell prior to last Tuesday’s deadline, keeping an in-form ace will go a long way towards helping San Francisco’s chances at the playoffs.

Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The Giants surprised many with tonight’s stunning trade that sent Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson to the Braves, yet the move doesn’t appear to be signalling a larger trend towards a selloff in the Bay Area. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via X) writes that “it doesn’t sound as if the Giants have plans to make any more significant subtractions, especially from the rotation.” That latter specification implies that Blake Snell probably isn’t going to be on the move, despite increased speculation in the last few days that teams have been inquiring about the left-hander’s availability.

Whether the Giants make any noteworthy additions also still seems to be in question, as Slusser feels the team could bring in a new outfielder “if they add.” The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants are looking for a good defender to play center field, and Heliot Ramos would then be moved into a corner outfield slot. Star prospect Marco Luciano will be recalled for another crack at the big leagues, and Luciano will factor into the DH picture with Michael Conforto and (when healthy) Wilmer Flores now that Soler is gone.

Naturally plans could still change as things develop leading up to the deadline, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently suggested that the Giants feel they could move Conforto to a team that would take on the rest of the roughly $6MM remaining of his $18MM salary. It could be that the Soler trade already provides enough financial relief that the Giants wouldn’t feel compelled to move Conforto as well, though if payroll isn’t a primary concern, the Giants could be freeing up some money to be flexible enough for a larger splash if an pricier option becomes available.

This type of measured approach to the trade deadline isn’t likely to please the San Francisco fanbase, yet it speaks to the team’s uncertain position in the standings. The Giants are 53-55 with a -16 run differential, but a four-game winning streak has brought them within four games of an NL wild card berth. With a number of lesser opponents (i.e. the A’s, White Sox, Marlins) all coming up on the schedule in the next five weeks, the ingredients might be there for the Giants to make a run…..or the front office could see the hill as too tall to climb.

In regards to Snell in particular, Baggarly says San Francisco would “have to be overwhelmed” to trade the southpaw, and the team is “not expecting something to materialize” between now and 5pm CT on Tuesday. For comparison’s sake, Baggarly said the Giants would want more for Snell than the Blue Jays got from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade earlier tonight.

The New York Post’s Jon Heyman also reported that the Giants weren’t willing to include any money in a Snell trade to cover the significant remaining cost of his contract. The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed last offseason breaks down as a $17MM signing bonus that has already been paid, a $15MM salary for 2024 (so roughly $5MM remains owed), and then $30MM in 2025. While Snell can opt out of that second year and return to free agency, rival teams are understandably wary about taking on that possible hefty cost, considering that Snell has a checkered injury history.

An opt-out didn’t appear to on the cards whatsoever for Snell just a few weeks ago, yet he has revived his trade value with some exceptional pitching since his return from the injured list. Snell has an 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate over 24 innings in his last four starts, suddenly once again looking like the dominant ace who won the NL Cy Young Award last year.

The Cubs, Orioles, Padres, and Yankees are all known to have expressed some level of interest about Snell, and SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets have also “checked in” with the Giants, with “no traction” yet on any possible deal. Martino implies that this might have been something of a due diligence call from the Mets, as naturally any contender would want to at least touch base with San Francisco about what it would take to pry Snell away.

Orioles Interested In Blake Snell

By Darragh McDonald | July 29, 2024 at 10:02am CDT

Giants left-hander Blake Snell might be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs having already been connected to him in rumors. The Orioles can be added to that pile, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new owner and strong farm system.

The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, hardly spending any money at all. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a larger contract than the $13MM deal for Craig Kimbrel. The only multi-year deals they have given out have been two-year extensions for John Means and Félix Bautista, players that were already controllable but facing recoveries from Tommy John surgeries.

The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the depths of a rebuild, but it has carried over into the new competitive window that they are currently in. It has been speculated that things might open up once the planned sale of the club went through and there are some signs that is now happening.

David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until the end of March, the cusp of Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here in the lead-up to the deadline, they have shown a willingness to absorb some money, both for this year and into the future. They acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, with that pitcher still owed roughly $3.8MM of his $11MM salary and a big spike to $18MM next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies, who is making $4.25MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year.

Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition on account of his opt-out but the O’s are perhaps the club best suited to take such a risk. As recently laid out by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Front Office subscribers, teams are usually hesitant to trade for players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” or “opt-out”, as either one gives the player the control over what transpires.

Trading for such a player at the deadline comes with more downside than upside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will trigger the opt-out and leave, making them a rental. If they perform poorly or get hurt, the club is stuck with them at a price that’s unpalatable, as the player wouldn’t have accepted it otherwise.

Due to their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s came into this year with almost nothing on the books for 2025 and beyond. The $1MM owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they have since added Eflin’s $18MM, as mentioned. They have a few club options and some arbitration-eligible players, but they have hardly anything committed for next year.

Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year.

The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout much of Snell’s career. He has two Cy Young awards, in 2018 and 2023, but struggled in between. Though he was in Cy Young form just last year, his 2024 got off to a rough start.

Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a hasty ramp-up and then struggled in his first three starts. He landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back for three more bad outings, then returned to the IL with a groin strain.

He was sitting on a 9.51 ERA after those six starts but has since returned and been dominant. He’s made four starts since coming off his second IL stint and only allowed two earned runs in 24 innings. He has struck out 35.7% of batters faced in those four outings, highlighted by punching out 15 Rockies in six shutout innings on Saturday.

The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That only puts them 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race, but they may consider doing some selling. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them down at 9.8%, which could lead to them prioritizing the future.

Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some prospect talent while also clearing $30MM off next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That might happen anyway if Snell opts out but isn’t a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024 but wouldn’t necessarily punt their season, as they could still go into the stretch run with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray. There’s also Alex Cobb, who was supposed to be reinstated from the IL over the weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters like Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong that they could work into the mix.

Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to many exploratory calls, but the offers might be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true of club’s with competitive balance tax concerns, which applies to the three other clubs connected to Snell. The Yankees are slated to be a third-time payor and above the fourth tax tier, meaning they are facing a 110% tax on any new spending they take on. Next year’s payroll is more open but they will want to have some powder dry for making a run at Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both right up against the base CBT threshold this year and seem loath to cross it.

The O’s are nowhere near any tax concerns and have loads of payroll flexibility, making them an interesting fit on Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez in the back end. Kremer’s career 4.32 ERA makes him fine for eating regular season innings but the O’s would ideally like to push him out of consideration for playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year but is a 34-year-old journeyman who didn’t pitch in the majors from 2018 to 2023, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to be relying on him either.

Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they make some kind of bold strike in the days to come. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is regarded as one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5pm Central.

Latest On Cubs’ Deadline Plans

By Nick Deeds | July 28, 2024 at 5:43pm CDT

The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when they acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young slugger Christopher Morel, relief prospect Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club was prioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

Yankees, Padres Interested In Blake Snell

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2024 at 10:40am CDT

The Yankees and Padres are two of the teams expressing interest in left-hander Blake Snell, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (links to X). Reports surfaced earlier this week that Snell was drawing interest from pitching-needy contenders, and New York and San Diego are the first clubs specifically known to gotten in touch with the Giants over Snell’s availability.

It remains to be seen if the Giants will actually move Snell, or be deadline sellers in any real capacity given that the team is still just 4.5 games out of a wild card berth. Snell is himself a major factor in San Francisco’s renewed hopes of contention, as the southpaw has been almost untouchable since returning from the injured list. Over his last four starts, Snell has a 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate, highlighted by a 15-strikeout gem of an outing against the Rockies yesterday.

This is the type of rotation-carrying production was what the Giants were hoping to receive when they signed the reigning Cy Young Award winner to a two-year, $62MM deal back in March. However, Snell’s lengthy stint in free agency and subsequent lack of proper Spring Training work wreaked havoc on his performance, resulting in two IL stints (with an adductor strain and a groin strain) and a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts in a Giants uniform.

This recent injury history will obviously weigh on the minds of any team that does approach the Giants about a Snell trade, not to mention the fact that Snell can opt out of the second year (and $30MM salary) of his contract. The presence of this opt-out clause means that Snell isn’t exactly a rental player, thus creating extra financial risk for an acquiring team, and some difficulty in working out an acceptable trade package with San Francisco. Snell’s recent form increases the chances that he might exercise his player option, but if any more injury issues arise, Snell could pass on his opt-out and remain on the books for that hefty $30MM payday next year.

Snell is naturally a known quantity to the Padres after pitching with San Diego from 2021-23, but the financial aspect of a Snell trade is particularly noteworthy for a Padres team that is trying to remain under the luxury tax threshold this season, in order to reset its penalty status after two years of overages. San Diego’s acquisition of Jason Adam from the Rays earlier today resulted in a pretty minor financial hit, though the Padres had to give up a hefty prospect package to obtain the reliever. Payroll aside, there is also the broader fact that it seems rather unlikely that the Giants would trade Snell to a division rival.

The Bronx Bombers have long had Snell on their radar, and the six-year, $150MM offer Snell reportedly received from the Yankees in January is the highest contract known to be on the table for the left-hander during his elongated free agent market. As Heyman notes, the luxury tax is also a factor given that New York has already topped the upper tier ($297MM) of tax penalties. RosterResource estimates that the Yankees’ Competitive Balance Tax number is just shy of $312.9MM, and thus they would face a 110% tax on any further salaries added to their ledger.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | July 26, 2024 at 8:46pm CDT

8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

Giants Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment

By Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald | July 9, 2024 at 5:26pm CDT

The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with left-hander Blake Snell as well as infielders Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada all reinstated from the injured list. One spot on the active roster was already opened when they traded outfielder Austin Slater to the Reds. They opened two more by optioning left-hander Kolton Ingram and designating shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment. The latter move drops the 40-man roster count to 39.

Ahmed signed with San Francisco on a minor league deal early in Spring Training. The longtime Diamondback essentially took over for Brandon Crawford as a glove-first veteran shortstop. Ahmed hit well during exhibition play and made the roster, locking in a reported $1.5MM base salary in the process. He picked up the Opening Day nod at shortstop — the first time a player other than Crawford got that honor since Miguel Tejada back in 2011 — and went on to start 50 games overall.

As is typically the case with Ahmed, virtually all of his contributions came on defense. Statcast credited him as four runs better than average across 426 innings. Defensive Runs Saved was less bullish, grading him one run below par. He hit in the bottom third of the batting order and ran a .232/.278/.303 slash line with one homer over 172 plate appearances.

Ahmed is a two-time Gold Glove winner who has been one of the sport’s preeminent defensive shortstops throughout his career. While he’s still a good defender, his numbers have taken a step back from elite levels as he has gotten into his mid 30s. Ahmed has never been much of an offensive threat and has particularly struggled over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a .222/.273/.330 line in a little more than 900 trips.

Estrada’s return from the IL will likely push Brett Wisely from second base to shortstop, at least against right-handed pitching. Righty hitting Tyler Fitzgerald is in the lineup tonight against Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. While the 25-year-old Wisely is stretched defensively at shortstop, he provides a higher offensive ceiling than Ahmed brought. Wisely owns a decent .278/.313/.421 slash through 135 plate appearances in his second MLB campaign.

The Giants have five days to trade Ahmed or place him on waivers. He has well over five years of MLB service time and would retain his entire salary if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent. A release is the likeliest outcome. Once Ahmed clears waivers, he could sign with another team for the prorated portion of the $740K minimum.

Meanwhile, Snell returns for his first MLB action in nearly six weeks. San Francisco’s late signing could hardly have gone worse to this point. Snell has battled groin issues throughout the year and been limited to six starts. Opponents have teed off on the defending NL Cy Young winner for a 9.51 earned run average through 23 2/3 innings. Snell will try to get his season on track when he takes on the Blue Jays this evening.

Giants Chairman Discusses Deadline, Signings, “Inconsistent” First Half

By Mark Polishuk | June 30, 2024 at 8:33am CDT

With a 40-44 record, the Giants sit in fourth place in the NL West but also still within striking distance of the playoffs, as San Francisco is 3.5 games out of the last National League wild card slot. Several other teams within the congested NL are in this same half-in, half-out status of semi-contention, though expectations were certainly higher in the Bay Area after the Giants spent over $324MM on free agents this past offseason.

Team chairman Greg Johnson is still optimistic that the best is yet to come for the Giants, though he admitted in an interview this week with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser that the club’s play has been “very inconsistent.”

“I think we have to be a little patient through this period where you get frustrated when you watch every day,” Johnson said. “We also have to take into account that we’ve been hit with injuries in very key places, and when you try to muddle through with a two-man rotation, it’s pretty difficult….We’ve had slow starts in games. We can’t seem to get on starting pitching, we always seem to be trying to play catch-up. But on the positive side, the clubhouse vibe seems to be good despite the injuries, and I think if we can stay relevant the next couple of weeks, we’re going to be in great shape in the second half.”

Thirteen players are currently on the Giants’ injured list, ranging from season-ending issues like Jung Hoo Lee’s shoulder surgery to a couple of injuries (to Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores) that have arose even in the few days since Slusser’s interview with Johnson was published. As Johnson simply put it, “it’s tough when you watch the team take the field — that’s not the team we thought would be out there.”

The sheer volume of personnel on the IL does hint at further upside for the roster, since Johnson says “we probably have the biggest lift (with returning injured players) of any team out there.” This in itself could provide more of a natural roster reinforcement than anything San Francisco could add at the trade deadline, though whether or not enough players will be back by July 30 adds another wrinkle to the club’s future plans.

Johnson demurred most talk about the deadline, saying that was the purview of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. However, the chairman downplayed the idea of a splashy midseason trade, saying “we’re going to look and see what’s available, but we’re not that optimistic that the market will bear much fruit with so many teams in contention right now, and the cost of getting players and giving up a lot of young talent.” Should a situation emerge where the Giants could add a player by boosting their approximately $254MM, Johnson said “I think we do” have that type of financial flexibility.

It has been no secret that the Giants were trying to add superstars (and thus a larger payroll) to their roster for the last several years, as per their pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and other big-ticket stars in free agency. Last winter’s spending spree was headlined by Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal, though the Giants were able to score a pair of notable less-pricey deals late in the offseason with a pair of shorter-term, opt-out heavy deals with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman. As a result, San Francisco is now over the luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2017, though their estimated $254MM figure puts them under the secondary tax tier of $257MM.

In regards to the Giants’ spending capacity in general, Johnson said “We don’t go in with any set number — here’s the cap, here’s the target. Things change, and being able to get someone of Blake Snell’s caliber and you look at your areas of vulnerability and with a lot of untested pitchers, that was a reason to go out and spend beyond the luxury tax. You want to be nimble and opportunistic and having Blake still available kind of pushed us over that [luxury tax] range.”

Seen as relative bargains at the time, the signings of Chapman (three years, $54MM with two opt-outs) and Snell (two years, $62MM with an opt-out after the season) haven’t gone to plan. Chapman is at least on the field and providing his customary excellent third base defense, even if his hitting has been only decent. Snell, on the other hand, has battled through a nightmare of a season that has included two IL stints and a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings pitched.

Because Snell didn’t sign until March 19, he didn’t have the benefit of any kind of normal Spring Training routine, as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner’s preseason work was limited to his own personal training regiment and some sim games after he officially joined the Giants. Snell’s struggles have been so overwhelming that it seems to have led to a policy change within the team, as “signing someone late isn’t something we’d do again, especially with a pitcher,” Johnson said.

“I think that shows you how important Spring Training is, especially for pitchers….We felt a veteran like him could be ready pretty quickly. I’m sure he’s pretty frustrated as well. You want him to feel like he’s 100 percent when he’s out there, and he wants to feel like he’s 100 percent.”

While it is a little surprising to hear a team executive make such a firm declaration, it isn’t all that controversial given that Snell himself has gone on record with his regrets over his lack of a normal offseason ramp-up. It should be noted that Johnson didn’t regard Snell’s signing as a mistake, since there is still time this season for Snell to return and contribute, not to mention in the second year of his deal in 2025 (since an opt-out is looking increasingly unlikely).

All in all, Johnson’s statements don’t much differ from the comments of other front office officials or executives in recent weeks, as so much of the league is still in wait-and-see mode with a month to go before the deadline. It is certainly possible the Giants could be more aggressive in adding talent if they go on a hot streak in July, though remaining under .500 (and falling more definitively out of a playoff race) could motivate Zaidi to reload for 2025 and move some veteran players at the deadline. Or, given how San Francisco surely plans to contend next year, the Giants could pursue a combination of both buying and selling at the deadline, rather than one specific path.

Giants Notes: Snell, Harrison, Cobb

By Nick Deeds | June 29, 2024 at 6:58pm CDT

The Giants have suffered a tough run of injuries to their starting rotation of late, and with six starters on the injured list only Logan Webb and Jordan Hicks are currently in the San Francisco rotation as true full-time starters, although Spencer Howard and Hayden Birdsong have filled in to allow the Giants to cobble together a four-man rotation. Fortunately, it appears that could be changing in the near future as Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier today that southpaws Blake Snell and Kyle Harrison are both making progress towards returns from injuries.

Of the pair, Harrison appears to be closer to a return. The southpaw found himself shelved a little less than two weeks ago due to a right ankle sprain, although the issue proved minor enough that it appears he’ll be ready to return after something close to a minimum stay on the shelf. Per Rubin, the club’s current plan is for Harrison to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday before eyeing a start sometime during the club’s road trip against the Braves and Guardians that wraps up on July 8. That should leave the Giants to turn over the rotation just once more before Harrison rejoins the group.

After making seven starts with the club down the stretch last year, Harrison stepped into the club’s rotation on Opening Day this year alongside Webb, Hicks, Snell, and Keaton Winn. The 22-year-old has generally performed decently in what will be his first full big league season with a roughly league average 3.96 ERA and matching 3.95 FIP through 77 1/3 inning of work spread across 14 starts. While the lefty has only struck out 20.6% of batters faced this year, he’s limited walks to a strong 6.7% clip while generating grounders at a decent 42.1% rate. While the lefty’s pedigree certainly suggests that he could take a step forward at some point, even that stable back-end production would be a huge boost to a San Francisco rotation that has gotten the second-fewest innings out of its starting rotation in the majors this year.

Snell, meanwhile, appears likely to rejoin the Giants after Harrison but has a more concrete plan for his return in place. Per Rubin, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner is scheduled to make a final rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the rotation on July 10 against the Blue Jays. After being limited to just six starts in the first half by multiple groin injuries while struggling to a 9.51 ERA and 4.63 FIP across those 23 2/3 innings of work where he was healthy enough to take the mound, both Snell and the Giants are surely hoping that the lefty can turn his season around when he returns to action.

While San Francisco was surely hoping for more when they inked Snell to a two-year, $62MM contract back in March, it’s not at all difficult to imagine the southpaw, who boasts a 2.72 ERA and 3.17 FIP with a 31.7% strikeout rate in 56 starts from 2022-23, turning things around in the second half and helping to anchor the top of the Giants rotation alongside Webb. Given his tough start to the season, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Snell opting out of the second year of his deal at this point barring a sensational second half on the level of the one he enjoyed last year, when he posted a 1.43 ERA and 3.12 FIP in his final 15 starts of the season.

Meanwhile, veteran right-hander Alex Cobb is also working his way back from injury after undergoing hip surgery last offseason that delayed his start to the 2024 campaign. He was expected to rejoin the Giants at some point in May, but ended up halting his throwing program due to discomfort in his shoulder in the middle of last month. The righty finally appears poised to get into game action, however, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted this afternoon that Cobb is set to make a rehab start with Single-A San Jose tomorrow.

That’s a key step for the 36-year-old as he looks to return to action for the Giants. The veteran righty has been a very valuable asset for the club in recent years when healthy enough to take the mound, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and a 3.41 FIP in 301 innings of work since the start of his Giants tenure back in 2022. He and veteran lefty Robbie Ray could both impact the club’s rotation at some point later this season, offering internal rotation depth as the season wears on and they get closer to returns from their respective injuries.

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