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Rosenthal’s Latest: Stanton, Marlins, J. Upton, Nats

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Thanks to an improbable late-season rally, the Marlins entered Saturday a game over .500 and 4.5 games behind Colorado for the National League’s last wild-card spot. They’re not going to attempt to sell veterans such as 49-home run right fielder Giancarlo Stanton or reliever Brad Ziegler anytime soon, then, Rosenthal suggests (video links). Dealing Stanton during the season looked extremely unlikely even before the Marlins’ recent run, given his enormous contract (10 years, $295MM left after this season), the opt-out in the deal after the 2020 campaign and his full no-trade clause – not to mention the team’s impending ownership change. Nevertheless, the Marlins have been getting calls on the surging 27-year-old, according to Rosenthal, who reports that teams have been offering packages consisting of prospects, salary relief and major leaguers for Stanton. Miami has not seriously considered any offers to this stage, but if Stanton’s incredible performance keeps up, proposals from other clubs should only get more appealing, Rosenthal posits.

Ziegler, meanwhile, could have interested contenders looking for bullpen help. The 37-year-old has posted some mediocre-at-best numbers this season (4.73 ERA, 4.73 K/9, 3.15 BB/9 over 40 innings), but the ground-ball machine (66.6 percent) has worked 11 straight scoreless appearances and is under control in 2018 for a fairly reasonable $9MM. He and Stanton have each reportedly cleared trade waivers this month, freeing them up for August moves, though it looks like a moot point in both cases.

More from Rosenthal on the Marlins and two other clubs:

  • Whether Tigers left fielder Justin Upton continues his torrid pace through September and whether he’s willing to stick with a rebuilding team will help determine his opt-out decision after the season, Rosenthal says. Upton, who has been one of the majors’ most valuable outfielders this season, will have a chance to walk away from the four years and $88.5MM left on his deal in hopes of landing a similar or better pact elsewhere. If he chooses to exit Detroit, facing less competition on the market than he did when he was a free agent in 2015 and not being eligible for a qualifying offer would aid him in his search for another big payday, Rosenthal notes. As a free agent a couple winters ago, Upton inked a six-year, $132.75MM pact with the Tigers despite being part of a class of available players that included other star-caliber outfielders in Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon.
  • On account of their unexpected success, the Marlins seem to be on the lookout for rotation help, though president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Rosenthal that the starters who have cleared waivers in August are “not inspiring at all.” Stuck with the likes of Vance Worley and Justin Nicolino in their rotation, the Marlins could promote minor league left-hander Dillon Peters, per Rosenthal. The 24-year-old Peters has posted impressive numbers across 45 2/3 Double-A innings this season, with a 1.97 ERA, 7.88 K/9 against 2.17 BB/9 and a 46 percent grounder rate, and MLB.com ranks him as the Marlins’ fourth-best prospect.
  • The Nationals would like to retain contract-year manager Dusty Baker past this season, GM Mike Rizzo informed Rosenthal. The Baker-led Nats have gone 171-117 since he took over in advance of the 2016 campaign and are coasting to a second straight NL East title. Baker has said on multiple occasions that he wants to remain with the Nationals, but he’s also aiming for a pay raise.

Quick Hits: Ziegler, Young, Buehler, Dodgers

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Here’s the latest from around baseball…

  • “It appears” as if Marlins closer Brad Ziegler has cleared August trade waivers, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  This means that Miami would be free to deal Ziegler to any team.  Ziegler is owed roughly $1.25MM remaining this season and $9MM in 2018, and prior to the trade deadline, the Marlins were reportedly willing to eat a large portion of that contract.  Ziegler, however, has only allowed runs in two of his last 22 appearances and he has pitched especially well since taking over as Miami’s closer.  Given that the Fish are now within striking distance of an NL wild card berth, it also isn’t clear if the team is still in selling mode.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, Chris Young is hopeful of re-signing with the Red Sox this winter but he implies there hasn’t been much talk about an extension.  “It’s been a good relationship but I’m not sure about their plans,” Young said.  The veteran outfielder is in the final year of a two-year, $13MM deal with Boston signed in the 2015-16 offseason, and after a strong 2016 season, Young has actually delivered slightly below-replacement level production (-0.2. fWAR) thanks to an offensive and defensive dropoff.  Young has long been known as a lefty-masher, though he has only a .614 OPS against southpaws this year (though, curiously, an .833 OPS against righties).  Young turns 34 in September but will probably get consideration from the Red Sox and several other teams for a backup or platoon outfield role.
  • Walker Buehler’s last six appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City have come as a relief pitcher, adding to the widely-held speculation that the top Dodgers prospect will make his big league debut in September to help the team’s bullpen down the stretch (and perhaps in the postseason).  Manager Dave Roberts, however, tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters that the team that Walker’s future has yet to be determined.  “He’s transitioning to this new role.  We’re very sensitive to having guys here who fit a certain role and have a purpose, and we haven’t made that decision with Walker,” Roberts said.
  • From that same DiGiovanna piece, Cody Bellinger reported “no pain” in his sprained right ankle after going through workouts and batting practice.  The star rookie’s injury was thought to be mild when he hit the DL on last Tuesday (with a back-dated placement to August 20), and Bellinger indeed looks on pace to return when first eligible on Wednesday.  In other Dodgers injury news, Brandon McCarthy made his first rehab start on Friday as he looks to return from a month-long DL stint due to a blister problem.  According to Roberts, McCarthy is still “multiple rehab starts” away from returning to the Dodgers rotation.

Players That Have Cleared Revocable Waivers

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We’ll use this post to keep track of players that have reportedly cleared revocable waivers. Before diving into the names, a few items bear repeating. The majority of Major League players will be placed on trade waivers this month, with most instances going unreported. There are undoubtedly players (quite a few of them, most likely) who have already cleared waivers but have not been reported to have done so. Players can be traded into September, as well, but only those traded on or before Aug. 31 will be eligible for the postseason with their new teams, so there’s some urgency for contending clubs to complete deals by month’s end. And, of course, for those who aren’t familiar with the inner-workings of waiver trades, MLBTR published a full explanation of how August trades work earlier this month.

Here’s the current list (last updated Aug. 29):

  • Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants (link): While he hasn’t produced great results this year and is owed another $54MM over the following three seasons, Samardzija has put up compelling peripherals and has long been a scout’s favorite. Still, the Giants may not be all that inclined to move him and Samardzija has broad no-trade protection, so a deal seems unlikely.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, 3B, Tigers (link): The 25-year-old hasn’t produced at the plate this year after a quality 2016 season. But he is still hitting the ball hard and could be an interesting bounceback target for other organizations — with an offseason deal seeming more likely than a late-August swap. Castellanos is playing this year on a $3MM salary and can be controlled for two more campaigns via arbitration.
  • R.A. Dickey, RHP, Braves (link): Dickey has been just what Atlanta thought it was getting: a solid innings eater with plenty of durability but limited upside. He could fill in the fifth slot in a contender’s rotation, but teams might be reluctant to force one of their catchers to learn to catch a knuckleball this late in the year. He’s averaging six innings per start, and Atlanta may just keep him around in 2018.
  • Brad Ziegler, RHP, Marlins (link): Ziegler has been stellar since returning from the disabled list and could certainly help a contending club’s bullpen. However, he’s owed $9MM in 2018, and the Marlins now find themselves back in Wild Card contention — both of which make a trade before the end of August unlikely. He could be an offseason trade candidate.
  • Miguel Gonzalez, RHP, White Sox (link): Gonzalez is earning $5.9MM in 2017 and has been a serviceable, if unspectacular source of innings for the ChiSox. He won’t be a part of a contending club’s playoff rotation, but a team with a big division lead that is looking to rest its rotation (or allow some of its injured rotation members to mend) could turn to Gonzalez for some stability. The asking price won’t be much.
  • Derek Holland, LHP, White Sox (link): Like Gonzalez, Holland could be a rotation stabilizer for a team with a comfortable division lead. He’s also shut down opposing lefties (.216/.279/.333) in 2017, so perhaps a club would look at him as a potential relief specialist with expanded September rosters on the horizon.
  • James Shields, RHP, White Sox (link): The Sox still owe Shields the balance of a $10MM commitment this season (the Padres are on the hook for the rest), plus $12MM in 2018. Given his enormous struggles over the past two seasons, he’s not going anywhere unless the ChiSox simply cut bait and release him.
  • Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers (link): Martinez has been a decidedly below-average contributor at the plate in 2017 and is owed the balance of this year’s $18MM salary plus an identical $18MM salary in 2018. The Tigers won’t find any takers here.
  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (link): Cabrera is 34 years old and has been a roughly league-average hitter in 2017. He’s owed a ridiculous $192MM from 2018-23 and has full no-trade protection as well. That last point is largely moot, though, as his enormous contract makes him all but impossible to move anyhow.
  • Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Tigers (link): With a 5.29 ERA in his nearly two seasons as a Tiger and $74MM owed to him from 2018-20, Zimmermann is effectively an immovable asset for the Tigers.
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins (link): Stanton is owed $295MM over the next decade, so an attempt at acquiring him wouldn’t exactly make for a casual undertaking. He has more than made up for a relatively disappointing 2016 season thus far with a monster 2017, boosting his value, but structuring a deal would be complicated by a variety of factors — including the Miami organization’s still-pending sale.
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B, Braves (link): The 36-year-old isn’t the exciting option he once was, but Phillips still brings acceptable and affordable production to the table. Combining those factors with his impending free agency, Phillips seems like someone the Braves could realistically trade this month.
  • Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants (link): Crawford emerged as a two-way star over the previous couple seasons, pairing good offense with otherworldly defense. His glovework remains strong, but the 30-year-old’s production at the plate has fallen off dramatically this season. The Giants reportedly still have little interest in dealing him, and doing so would be difficult in any event. Crawford, who’s making $8MM this year, will rake in $15MM each season from 2018-21. He also has a full no-trade clause.
  • Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (link): Unfortunately, King Felix’s days as an ace appear long gone, which is all the more troubling for the Mariners when taking his contract into consideration. Hernandez, 31, is collecting a $26MM salary this year and will make $53MM more from 2018-19. He also has a full no-trade clause, making him even less movable.
  • Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets (link): Unlike fellow Mets outfielders Bruce and Granderson, Cespedes doesn’t seem like a logical trade candidate. Cespedes is in the first season of a four-year, $110MM deal, and the Mets gave the franchise cornerstone a full no-trade clause when they re-signed him.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (link): Cabrera, who’s making $8.25MM this season and has either an $8.5MM club option or a $2MM buyout for 2018, drew trade interest in July. However, recent indications are that the Mets are leaning toward keeping him in the fold for next year.
  • AJ Ramos, RP, Mets (link): Ramos was a popular name in trade rumors before the Mets acquired him from the Marlins in late July. Plenty of teams showed interest in Ramos, so perhaps the Mets would be able to find a taker for the longtime closer. However, New York acquired Ramos knowing it wasn’t in contention this season, so keeping him into 2018 – his final season of arbitration eligibility – looks more likely.
  • Bryce Harper, RF, Nationals (link): Harper isn’t going anywhere. Putting the superstar through waivers was purely a procedural move by the Nationals.
  • Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (link): Davis, 31, no longer resembles the force of nature he was at the plate before the Orioles handed him a seven-year, $161MM contract leading up to the 2016 campaign. They included a partial no-trade clause in the accord, but the contract itself has essentially become a full NTC thanks to Davis’ decline. Realistically, Baltimore’s stuck with him.
  • Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (link): The Reds haven’t shown any interest in moving Votto, nor has he expressed a willingness to leave Cincinnati. Considering those factors, the remaining money on Votto’s enormous contract (a guaranteed $171MM through 2024) and his full no-trade clause, the hitting savant will stay where he is.
  • Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers (link): With plenty of cash still owed this year and $56MM more promised through 2019, Verlander is not a guy who’ll casually be acquired. Things are complicated by Detroit’s inclination to try to achieve real value for a cornerstone player, not to mention Verlander’s full no-trade rights — though he seems willing to entertain a move. While a deal still seems less than likely, Verlander could be a fascinating player to watch if he throws well and one or more contenders see a need for his services.
  • Justin Upton, LF, Tigers (link): As is the case with Verlander, moving Upton would be a major challenge for Detroit. Not only does Upton have a 20-team no-trade clause, but his contract includes an opt-out clause for after the season, when he’ll have to decide whether to play out his deal or leave four years and roughly $88MM on the table. The tricky financial situation has apparently overshadowed the great season Upton’s having, as nobody has shown real interest in acquiring him.

Additionally, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Neil Walker cleared waivers before their respective trades to the Dodgers, Indians and the Brewers.

Trade Chatter: Gray, Fulmer, Cards, JDM, Marlins, Lowrie, Red Sox, Reed

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Athletics righty Sonny Gray is an obvious target for contenders, and he’s among the players touched upon in a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (which also delves into some analysis and predictions). The Brewers “may be the most aggressive” suitor for the Oakland starter, per Nightengale, with the Royals even entering the picture to some extent. He guesses, though, that the Astros are most likely to land Gray. That’s not to say that it’s Houston’s first choice; Nightengale says that the team spoke with the Tigers on Michael Fulmer but “came up empty.”

We’ll see if the ’Stros continue to push for Fulmer, who’d surely require a major haul of prospects. Here are some more notes from Nightengale and others:

  • If Gray is the top starter who’s likely to be dealt, the best position player on the market is probably Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez. The Cardinals were said previously to have looked into the high-powered slugger, but Nightengale says they won’t spend big on a rental of his ilk. Rather, he says, the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks are the three clubs that have “shown the most interest” in Martinez. We’ve also heard of a few other organizations poking around on the righty slugger, so there seems to be no shortage of interest.
  • The Phillies aren’t in contention — far from it — but are still showing interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, Nightengale adds. Other organizations are also said to be looking into the speedy veteran, who is under contract for $38MM over the next three seasons. It’s a bit surprising to see this particular link, as the Phils already control Cesar Hernandez and have variety of interesting middle infield prospects moving toward the majors. CSNPhilly.com’s Corey Seidman argues as much, but notes that Gordon could conceivably be involved in some of the broader talks between the clubs.
  • As many as 10 teams are still in the mix for Marlins righty David Phelps, tweets Nightengale. Phelps is indeed an attractive trade chip, though it’s unlikely that all 10 of those clubs are expressing serious interest and making competitive bids to acquire him. Nightengale names the Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, and Rangers as the chief pursuers of Phelps.
  • MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provides a variety of market notes. Among them: the Marlins are shopping Brad Ziegler aggressively. The team is willing to hold onto a major portion of his salary to get a deal done, per the report. That’s no surprise, given that he struggled through 29 innings before hitting the DL with a back issue. With a discount on the free-agent deal, there ought to be some interest. After all, the crafty 37-year-old maintained a 2.05 ERA over 136 innings in the prior two campaigns.
  • It’s not surprising to hear that the Tigers are asking for quite a haul in exchange for Fulmer, given that he doesn’t need to be dealt. And the organization is perhaps well served to maintain a lofty ask on Martinez, allowing suitors to bid up his return. But dealing some of the organization’s other veterans may require more give and take. A pair of rival executives tell ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter) that Detroit may have trouble making deals at its current asking prices.
  • Jed Lowrie has been one of the most oft-speculated trade candidates of the summer, but MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweets that, to this point, the Athletics haven’t received so much as a single inquiry into his availability. Lowrie is obviously available in trade — as is the case with most of the Oakland roster — and it is indeed somewhat surprising to hear that interest in him is so scant. The versatile, switch-hitting 33-year-old is batting .272/.339/.455 with 10 homers, 27 doubles and two triples this year. Even if a contending club doesn’t view Lowrie as a starter, his $6.5MM salary and $6MM club option aren’t exactly outlandish for a productive utility option.
  • The Red Sox are one team rumored to have some level of interest in Lowrie, though Boston has been most closely connected with Todd Frazier in its third base search. Odds are, a source tells ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber (Twitter link), the Sox won’t be parting with significant prospect assets to meet its needs at the hot corner and in the bullpen. That likely wouldn’t be necessary for Lowrie or Frazier; one wonders, though, whether the club will still at least look into more significant deadline additions.
  • We haven’t heard much detail as yet on Mets righty Addison Reed, who looks to be one of the best available relievers. But he’s generating “plenty of trade interest,” in the words of Newsday’s Marc Carig (via Twitter). That’s to be expected given the dominant form of the pending free agent. Over 43 2/3 innings this year, Reed owns a 2.47 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and just 1.0 BB/9.

Marlins Notes: Jeter, Cruz, Gordon, Ziegler, Ichiro, Rojas, Riddle

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Here are a handful of notes on the Marlins, via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

  • Marlins bidders Jorge Mas and Derek Jeter won’t be joining forces, Jackson writes. Mas, the Miami billionaire, contacted Jeter weeks ago and asked him to join Mas’ ownership group (as Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman also recently noted). Jeter refused, however, because he wants to control both the baseball and business sides of the team despite only contributing a relatively modest $25MM of his own money (as Heyman also previously noted). Jeter’s desire to control all parts of the team’s operations were also an issue when Jeter was previously part of a bidding group that included Jeb Bush.
  • An earlier report indicated union executive (and former big-league outfielder) Jose Cruz Jr. would be part of the Mas group. Jackson indicates that no specific role has been outlined for Cruz, but that Mas and his group do favor him.
  • The Marlins aren’t actively looking to trade Dee Gordon, but might deal him for the right return, Jackson suggests. A recent report from Heyman named the Royals, Angels and Blue Jays as potential bidders for Gordon, but indicated that the $41MM left on Gordon’s current deal might be a sticking point. Gordon is batting .291/.338/.353 in 380 plate appearances this season.
  • Neither righty Brad Ziegler nor outfielder Ichiro Suzuki plan to retire after the season, Jackson writes. Ziegler considered retiring before signing with Miami last winter, Jackson indicates. It’s not surprising that those retirement plans are no more, however, since he’s signed for $9MM next season. The 37-year-old is, however, in the midst of a terrible year, with a 6.52 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 29 innings. Ichiro would play in 2018 at the age of 44 and has a .220/.267/.294 line this year; Jackson suggests that Ichiro is unlikely to return to the Marlins next season, despite his plans to play.
  • Infielder Miguel Rojas is set to return soon from a thumb injury, and manager Don Mattingly says he’s open to having Rojas compete with rookie JT Riddle for the starting shortstop job. Mattingly indicates, though, that he liked using Rojas in a utility role instead. Rojas has played all four infield positions with the Marlins this season.

Quick Hits: Prospects, Bruce, Ramos, Phelps, Yankees, Marlins, Weaver

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Yoan Moncada sits atop both the midseason top 100 prospect rankings from Baseball America and the top 50 list from Baseball Prospectus.  The two lists have different methodologies in compiling the rankings (for instance, BA includes 2017 draft picks while BP doesn’t) but obviously are in agreement about the value of several top minor leaguers, with Moncada as the consensus choice.  The White Sox prospect has a very solid but not dominant .282/.380/.451 slash line over 334 plate appearances at Triple-A this season, and with 93 strikeouts on his record, plate discipline is still something of a question mark.  Of course, Moncada struck out in 12 of his 20 big league plate appearances last season during his first taste of MLB action.  Though the White Sox have been somewhat non-committal about when Moncada will get called up, the 22-year-old is likely to make his debut in a White Sox uniform at some point late this season.

Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • Jay Bruce’s contract contains partial no-trade protection against eight teams, and the octet on Bruce’s list hasn’t changed since the offseason, James Wagner of the New York Times writes.  The eight teams in question are the Athletics, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Phillies, Rays, Twins, and Yankees.  The Mets outfielder isn’t likely to be targeted by many of those teams anyway, be it for financial reasons, fit reasons or because at least three of those clubs are looking like deadline sellers themselves.
  • The Yankees are one of the many teams interested in Marlins relievers AJ Ramos and David Phelps, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.
  • Also from Sherman’s piece, the Marlins have gotten “a few nibbles” on Edinson Volquez and Brad Ziegler.  Miami appears to be concentrating on dealing relievers and veterans under multi-year contracts like Volquez and Ziegler, and the club’s biggest names seem to be staying put for now, though “the situation is fluid,” according to both Marlins officials and officials on rival teams.  Sherman includes right-hander Dan Straily on the list of Miami’s untouchable-for-now core players, which makes sense given that Straily is enjoying a strong season and is controllable for three more seasons.  The Marlins are scouting over 20 different farm systems for potential trade pieces.
  • It’s unclear if Padres righty Jered Weaver will ever pitch again, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  If Weaver does resume his career, Lin doesn’t expect it to happen in San Diego (Twitter link).  The 34-year-old Weaver, who has been on the disabled list with left hip inflammation in late May, is working on his health in San Diego, according to manager Andy Green.  The club has given Weaver “latitude to explore some things,” and there’s no timetable for his return, per Green.  Before Weaver landed on the shelf, the former Angels ace recorded unsightly numbers (7.44 ERA, 7.99 FIP) over nine starts and 42 1/3 innings.

Heyman’s Latest: Slow Starters, Dodgers, Braun, O’s, Tigers

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FanRag’s Jon Heyman tackles a number of slow-starting teams in the intro to his weekly notes columns, getting the opinions of rival scouts and executives on the slow starts from the Cardinals, Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers. Heyman spoke to Giants GM Bobby Evans on his club’s issues in left field, with Evans conceding, “We don’t have a true left fielder. We’re going to have to mix and match.” Heyman notes that veteran infielder Aaron Hill is expected to get some looks in left field. San Francisco elected to move on from Angel Pagan this offseason and entered the year with a platoon of Jarrett Parker and Chris Marrero in left field, but Parker will now miss significant time following a broken clavicle. And it appears to be too late to turn back to Pagan, who told El Vocero yesterday that he’s planning to sit out the 2017 season to spend time with his wife and children.

Here are some highlights from Heyman’s National League and American League roundups…

  • There’s “no evidence of any real trade talk” between the Brewers and Dodgers involving Ryan Braun, per Heyman. He notes that the Brewers may feel a slight sense of urgency due to the fact that Braun will achieve 10-and-5 rights on May 24 (thus allowing him full veto power over any trade). The improved production out of Yasiel Puig could make Braun a less appealing target, as Puig himself has the ability to be a dynamic weapon against lefties if he can return to form. Even if Braun does ultimately reach 1o-and-5 status, Heyman notes that the Dodgers are said to be his preferred destination in a trade, so he could very well approve the deal after that point.
  • Also of note to Dodgers fans, Los Angeles showed interest in right-hander Brad Ziegler this offseason and were willing to discuss something in the range of $12MM over two years. Ziegler, instead, signed with the Marlins for two years and a total of $16MM. To this point, he’s yielded just one run with a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio and a ridiculous 81 percent ground-ball rate through his first eight innings.
  • Multiple teams inquired with the Brewers about right-hander Wily Peralta this spring, but Milwaukee clearly didn’t find an offer to its liking. “We’re very comfortable having him as part of our rotation,” GM David Stearns tells Heyman. The 27-year-old Peralta has a 2.65 ERA through his first three starts, though his strong work dates back further than Opening Day. While Peralta’s 2016 numbers look pedestrian at best, he posted a 2.92 ERA through 61 1/3 innings after being recalled from a Triple-A demotion early last August. In his past 13 MLB starts, Peralta has a 2.86 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s controllable for two seasons beyond the 2017 campaign, and it’s easy to envision him emerging as a trade candidate this summer if he continues to perform anywhere near that level.
  • J.J. Hardy’s lengthy injury history will make the Orioles unlikely to pick up his $14MM club option at season’s end. However, Heyman adds that even if the O’s do move on from Hardy, they’re not likely to displace Manny Machado from third base given his excellence (and, presumably, his comfort level) at the hot corner. Rather, the team figures to shop for a shortstop next offseason. The 2017-18 free agent crop at shortstop figures to be headlined by Zack Cozart, with alternative options including Eduardo Nunez, Alcides Escobar and Danny Espinosa. Baltimore could, of course, turn to the trade market for some shortstop help as well. Ryan Mountcastle is the team’s top-regarded minor league shortstop, but the 20-year-old former first-rounder opened the season in Class-A Advanced and many scouting reports question his ability to remain at short in the long run.
  • The Tigers are planning to be “extra cautious” with right fielder J.D. Martinez as he returns from a foot injury, Heyman writes. However, there’s little chance of the Tigers pursuing him as a free agent this offseason due to the fact that the team still intends to trim down its long-term payroll outlook. Re-signing Martinez, who ranked sixth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings earlier today, could require another sizable commitment of five or more years if Martinez has a typical season at the plate.

Heyman’s Latest: Nationals, Alvarez, Cubs, CarGo, Yankees, Colome

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The latest notes column from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports kicks off with an extremely early look at the potential market for Bryce Harper in two years, with Heyman listing the Yankees, Nationals and Phillies as teams that many within the industry think will vie for the 2015 NL MVP in free agency. The in-depth look at Harper focuses on the 24-year-old’s improved clubhouse demeanor and maturity in recent years and also adds more fuel to the rumors that Harper played part of the 2016 season through a shoulder injury that he’s reluctant to discuss. Heyman also touches base on Derek Norris later in the column, noting that there may be a better chance that Norris is simply released than traded. Washington agreed to a $4.25MM salary with Norris to avoid arbitration, but because arb contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, they could cut Norris before March 15 and only pay him 30 days termination pay — about $688K, by my math.

Some highlights from a lengthy look at all 30 teams around the league…

  • Pedro Alvarez still has fans in the Orioles’ front office, per Heyman, but there’s been “no evidence” of renewed contact between the two sides. The Twins talked to Alvarez’s camp at one point but haven’t been in touch recently, and while Rangers manager Jeff Banister is fond of Alvarez dating back to the pair’s days in Pittsburgh, there’s nothing to suggest the two sides could strike a deal.
  • The Cubs met with Scott Boras recently and discussed Jake Arrieta, but there was “no traction” in talks between the two sides. Heyman paints a similar picture to the one that has surrounded extension rumors with Arrieta for the past several months; the Cubs would be amenable to a three- or four-year deal, but Arrieta and Boras are targeting something more along the lines of Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract. Heyman also notes that the Cubs made a play for right-hander Brad Ziegler this winter before he inked a two-year deal with the Marlins.
  • Extension talks between the Rockies and Carlos Gonzalez are “on hold” for the time being. The team tried to explore talks with Gonzalez (another Boras client) recently, but with free agency just a few months away, hammering out a new deal has long seemed unlikely (and, I’d argue, unnecessary from the Rockies’ vantage point, given the plethora of outfield options in Denver).
  • After spending a combined $99MM on Matt Holliday and Aroldis Chapman at the Winter Meetings in early December, Yankees GM Brian Cashman was told he only had $4MM to work with over the remainder of the winter, Heyman reports. That level of cash prevented the Yanks from luring targets like Travis Wood and Jerry Blevins to the Bronx but did prove to be enough to buy Chris Carter (and perhaps Jon Niese, who inked a minor league deal). Cashman also tells Heyman that he did receive trade offers for Brett Gardner, but the offers simply weren’t enticing.
  • Rays closer Alex Colome was oft-rumored to have drawn trade interest last summer and earlier this offseason, though Heyman writes that the Nationals wouldn’t part with top outfield prospect Victor Robles in order to acquire him. Colome was outstanding in his first season in the ninth inning last year, logging 56 2/3 innings with a 1.91 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. The 28-year-old hasn’t even reached arbitration yet and is controllable through the 2020 season, so if he does eventually emerge as a potential trade chip, the asking price from the Tampa Bay front office would likely be deemed exorbitant by many clubs.

Marlins Designate Elvis Araujo, Announce Brad Ziegler Signing

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The Marlins have designated lefty Elvis Araujo for assignment, per a club announcement. He’ll play in 2017 for Japan’s Chunichi Dragons, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweets. Araujo’s roster spot will go to veteran reliever Brad Ziegler, whose two-year contract was also announced.

Araujo was claimed off waivers from the Phillies earlier in the offseason, and had been perhaps second to Hunter Cervenka on the team’s depth chart among southpaw relievers. It seems increasingly plausible to expect that Miami won’t put too great an emphasis on ensuring that its bullpen features at least one lefty; Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently projects an all-righty relief corps.

The 6’7 Araujo threw 62 total major frames over the past two seasons. He produced largely equivalent K/BB numbers — which average out to 9.1 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 — but suffered much worse batted-ball fortunes in 2016. All told, he owns a 4.35 ERA in the big leagues, which is just about what ERA estimators expect based upon his peripherals.

Araujo did show improved control when pitching at Triple-A last year, where he carried a 2.18 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and just 2.6 BB/9 over 20 2/3 frames. Notably, he debuted there after he reached the majors — which came after he had made only 25 total appearances at Double-A — so there’s perhaps added reason to believe that Araujo could still undergo some refinement.

Red Sox Notes: Sandoval, Ziegler, Thornburg

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Videos posted to Instragram from Red Sox team facilities in Florida show that Pablo Sandoval appears to have lost a significant amount of weight, notes Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com (who, unfortunately, does not seem to have been at the scene to report on Sandoval’s mass live). The videos show Sandoval running and lifting, and he appears to be significantly more svelte than he was prior to the 2016 season. The Red Sox are now two mostly wasted years into Sandoval’s five-year, $95MM deal after Sandoval performed poorly in 2015 and then lost most of 2016 to a shoulder injury. Getting a good 2017 campaign from him would provide them with a significant boost, particularly with less certainty at the corner infield spots and DH than they’ve had in years past. Here’s more on the Red Sox.

  • Brad Ziegler is now (or will soon be) a Marlin, but Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s trade for him last summer might rank as one of his best so far, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Many of Dombrowski’s trades so far have been risky, as the Sox have given up top prospects like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Manuel Margot and Anderson Espinoza. While the two prospects (Jose Almonte and Luis Alejandro Basabe) with whom the Red Sox parted for Ziegler have potential, the risk was manageable. Also, the Red Sox likely wouldn’t have made the postseason had Ziegler (who posted a 1.52 ERA over 29 2/3 innings with Boston) not stabilized their bullpen, Bradford argues.
  • The Red Sox’ recent trade for Tyler Thornburg looks better than it did in the short time since it was made, due to developments in the free agent market for relief pitching, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald argues. Not only have top closers like Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon cashed in big, but even secondary relief arms like Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa have gotten significant paydays. Thornburg, who’s coming off a brilliant 2.15 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 season in Milwaukee, gives the Red Sox a strong bullpen option who will be controllable for three more seasons. The Red Sox’ only significant miss on the bullpen front was Koji Uehara, who signed with the Cubs for a reasonable price, Mastrodonato writes.
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