AL East Notes: Holliday, Gil, Red Sox
The Orioles shocked the baseball world yesterday by reassigning top prospect Jackson Holliday to minor league camp, effectively ending his bid to make the Opening Day roster. The consensus #1 prospect in the entire sport, Holliday has taken the minors by storm since being selected first overall in the 2022 draft. After hitting .297/.489/.422 in 20 games down the stretch the year he was drafted between rookie ball and Single-A, Holliday tore through the minors in 2023 to advance all the way to the Triple-A level before the end of his first full season as a pro. In 125 games last year, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499, including a strong .338/.421/.507 showing in 36 games at the Double-A level. The youngster continued to tear the cover off the ball this spring as well, slashing .311/.354/.600 across 15 games during camp.
GM Mike Elias today explained the club’s decision to start Holliday in the minor leagues after that incredible performance to reporters, including MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Among the reasons Elias listed for Holliday not breaking camp with the Orioles was his lack of experience against left-handed pitching. Holliday’s numbers against southpaws last year, while decent, were not at the same caliber as those he posted against right-handed pitching. While he crushed righties to a .331/.437/.551 slash line, his 124 trips to the plate against lefties last year saw him hit just .296/.387/.389. Elias also suggested that Holliday’s minimal experience at second base- where the club plans to play him in the majors- was another motivating factor behind Holliday’s demotion. The youngster has started primarily at shortstop throughout his professional career and has only 25 appearances at the keystone in 145 career minor league games.
Of course, those reasons for sending Holliday to the minors to open the year, however valid they may be, won’t outweigh the impact the move could have on Holliday’s future team control in the eyes of many. A player must be on the major league roster or injured list for at least 172 days of the 187-day season to earn a full year of service time. In other words, if Holliday spends at least 16 days in the minors this year, the Orioles could gain an additional year of team control over the up-and-coming star. Of course, if Holliday were to finish in the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, he would still be granted a full year of service time even if he spends less than 172 days in the majors this year. It’s also possible the club could reverse course in the early days of the season and call Holliday up in time for him to receive a full service year, in which case the club would receive a draft pick in the event that Holliday wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes in the top 3 of AL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.
More from the AL East…
- The Yankees are “seriously considering” right-hander Luis Gil as their fifth starter to open the season, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that Gil wouldn’t have any innings restrictions in such a scenario despite having 29 2/3 innings of work across the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab. With ace Gerrit Cole set to miss the early months of the season due to nerve inflammation in his elbow, the Yankees will need an additional starter to pair with Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt in the rotation. Barring an external addition, Sherman indicates that the fifth spot in the rotation is likely to come down to either Gil or Will Warren, a 24-year-old righty who posted a 3.35 ERA in 129 innings between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Gil is the more experienced hurler of the two, with 33 1/3 innings in the majors under his belt. Those seven starts in the big leagues came during the 2021 and 2022 seasons and saw Gil pitch to a solid 3.78 ERA with a 4.12 FIP. [UPDATE: Gil has indeed won the fifth starter’s job, Boone told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce and other reporters today.]
- Center field prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will break camp with the Red Sox to open the season, Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this afternoon. Rafaela has appeared likely to make the club in the aftermath of injuries suffered by both second baseman Vaughn Grissom and outfielder Rob Refsnyder this spring. The 23-year-old has experience both on the infield dirt and in the outfield, though he figures to see the bulk of his playing time in center field as part of an outfield mix that also contains Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida. Rafaela made his big league debut last season with a 28-game cup of coffee that saw him hit just .241/.281/.386 in 89 plate appearances, though he slashed a far more impressive .312/.370/.618 in 60 games at the Triple-A level last year.
- Sticking with the Red Sox, veteran catcher Roberto Perez won’t be opting out of his minor league deal with the club according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Perez, 35, has spent the majority of his career in Cleveland and is regarded as one of the finest defensive catchers in the game, though he’s slashed just .169/.268/.288 since the start of the 2020 season and was limited to just 5 games in the majors last year before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Should the club stick with its current catching tandem of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong, that would leave Perez likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, where he’d serve as an excellent non-roster depth option for the Red Sox in the early part of the season. As an Article XX(B) free agent, Perez will have additional opportunities to opt-out of his deal with the club on May 1 and June 1 should he decide to test the open market later this season.
Red Sox Pursuing Outfield Additions
As players begin arriving to spring training, the Red Sox are still looking to add to their roster. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Sox have been in active pursuit of outfield options recently, suggesting a right-handed bat is the preferable addition. (Notably, he adds that Boston was not “meaningfully” involved in Jorge Soler‘s market in the late stages of his free agency before he agreed to a three-year deal with the Giants.)
A right-handed outfield bat is a generally sensible addition for the Sox, whose current outfield alignment features three lefty bats (Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) and one right-handed bat (Tyler O’Neill). Manager Alex Cora said today that Yoshida will see the most time at designated hitter of any of his current outfielders, but he’ll still see some work in the field as well (X link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe).
Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will get a chance to make the Opening Day roster as well and would add a right-handed bat to the bunch, but it’s also possible he’s ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Rafaela made his MLB debut last year but posted a tepid .241/.281/.386 slash with a 31% strikeout rate in 89 plate appearances. He’s still only played 48 games at the Triple-A level, and good as they were (.312/.370/.618 in 219 plate appearances), that’s a relatively small sample. He’ll need to earn a spot with a strong showing in camp. If Rafaela does make the roster, Cora noted that he’ll be the primary center fielder (X link via the Globe’s Alex Speier). “The defensive game is elite,” Cora said of Rafaela. “It’s a game-changer.”
As things stand, the Red Sox have a pair of right-handed outfield options on the bench in Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec. Refsnyder is a 32-year-old journeyman but does have a solid track record against lefties, including a .308/.428/.400 slash in 145 plate appearances last season. Dalbec, 28, has a minor league option remaining but has long seemed like a change-of-scenery candidate as a former top infield prospect who doesn’t have a clear role with the club. Neither player came up as an outfielder, and neither is considered to be an especially strong defender on the grass.
If the Sox prefer to turn to the free agent market, there are plenty of righty bats still available. Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall all remain unsigned. Pham (2022) and Duvall (2023) have both played with the Red Sox recently, though they were acquired under now-former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s watch. All four members of that quartet have experience across the outfield, although at this point only Taylor is considered an above-average option in center field (where he rates as one of the game’s premium defenders at the position).
While none of the free agents remaining in this tier of players is a star by any stretch of the word, each is affordable and can fill a clear role on a number of teams. As such, the Sox have competition for signing any of the bunch. The D-backs, for instance, have been tied to Grichuk, Pham and Duvall as they seek a right-handed complement to Joc Pederson at designated hitter. The Twins have been on the lookout for a righty outfield bat for much of the offseason after seeing Taylor become a free agent. Minnesota has reportedly shown interest in Duvall, specifically, but has had interest in Taylor throughout free agency as well. The Phillies could conceivably be in the mix for an outfield bat after an injury to Brandon Marsh. The Padres have considered a reunion with Pham.
Speaking of the Padres, it’s at least worth pointing out that San Diego has reportedly expressed interest in a trade involving Duran, though there’s never been any indication the two parties are close to a deal. But as the Sox look for ways to add to their collection of outfielders, it bears mentioning that the addition of a free agent could at least make the idea of moving Duran a bit more palatable. Boston would presumably prefer MLB-ready pitching in such a swap, however, and that’s an area the Padres themselves are also a bit thin, which complicates the scenario.
The Red Sox currently project for a $177.5MM payroll with about $198MM worth of luxury tax considerations, per Roster Resource. That $177.5MM projection is more than $20MM away from last year’s year-end payroll of about $199MM and miles away from the franchise-record $236MM, set back in 2019. Over the past month, the Red Sox have been specifically connected to Duvall, Pham and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper (who is reportedly nearing a decision in free agency).
Red Sox Exploring Trades Involving Outfielders
The Red Sox are exploring trades involving their young outfielders, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While Speier doesn’t identify anyone who is specifically part of talks, the Sox have a few intriguing possibilities.
Of the six primary outfielders on the 40-man roster, three have yet to qualify for arbitration: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. Duran has a little under two years of MLB service, while Abreu and Rafaela made their MLB debuts late in the 2023 campaign.
Other clubs will likely value that trio in different orders. They’ve each shown promise, but none is a finished product. Duran, who turned 27 in September and has appeared in parts of three big league campaigns, might offer the most certainty. He’s nevertheless a potentially divisive evaluation, as he took a step forward in 2023 after significant struggles in his first two MLB looks.
The left-handed hitter is coming off an impressive .295/.346/.482 line with eight home runs over 362 plate appearances. That’s far better than the .219/.269/.354 career mark he brought into the year. Last season’s production was partially inflated by a .381 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain. If he’s going to hit near .300 again, he’ll likely need to trim a 24.9% strikeout rate that’s a few percentage points higher than the league average. Duran has cut his whiffs with each progressive season, so it’s certainly not out of the question he continues to develop offensively, but some clubs could have reservations about an aggressive approach.
It’s a similar story defensively. Duran is an elite athlete and runner. That has shown up on the bases, where he went 24-26 in stolen base attempts, but hasn’t translated into strong defensive reviews. Public metrics have graded him as a middling center fielder, albeit to varying degrees. Statcast has pegged Duran two runs below par in nearly 1200 career innings. Defensive Runs Saved has been harsher, estimating him 19 runs below average. A team that feels he is a capable or better defender in center would be much more bullish than one that projects him as a left fielder — where he doesn’t have prototypical corner outfield power.
Abreu faces similar questions about his ideal defensive spot. He has played all three positions in the minors. During his MLB debut, he started eight games in left and 12 in center. Baseball America, which recently slotted him as the #6 prospect in the Sox’s farm system, suggests he’s best in right. Abreu has elite arm strength but below-average speed, which makes him a tough fit in center.
The 24-year-old has posted excellent numbers throughout his minor league career. That includes a .274/.391/.539 showing through 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. Abreu started his big league career strong, hitting .316/.388/.474 over his first 28 contests. The Sox shielded the lefty hitter from same-handed pitchers in that look, but he flashed the strong strike zone awareness which he has shown in the minors.
Rafaela, 23, brings a polar opposite approach. He’s an extremely aggressive hitter, which MLB pitchers exploited during a 28-game debut. The Curacao native torched Triple-A pitching, running a .312/.370/.618 slash with 14 homers over 219 plate appearances.
That’s strong production for any player. It’s especially impressive for an outfielder whom most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Rafaela can also play the middle infield, although he’s regarded as a superior defender on the grass. Baseball America recently named him the Sox’s #4 prospect.
Barring trade, Duran is a lock for an Opening Day roster spot. Abreu or Rafaela could start next season in Triple-A. It’s unlikely there’s room for all three players to open the year unless there’s an injury in Spring Training. The Sox sent a pair of minor league right-handers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill. He’s primarily a left fielder but capable of covering all three spots. Left fielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is headed into the second season of a five-year deal. He’ll make $18MM annually for the next four seasons. Yoshida paired solid but unexceptional offensive production (.289/.338/.445) with subpar defense in his first MLB campaign.
Between the recent acquisition of O’Neill and Yoshida’s contract, it’s unlikely either player is traded. Rob Refsnyder rounds out the group as a righty platoon bat. He’s signed to a $1.85MM deal for next season and wouldn’t bring back a noteworthy trade return.
Speier suggests an outfielder trade could allow Boston to add pitching. Even after tonight’s agreement with Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a high-variance staff. There’s plenty of upside in a rotation that could include some combination of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, yet it’s a group that also has plenty of risk.
If Boston were to trade an outfielder for pitching, they could look to free agency to replace the lost offense. Multiple reports have tied the Sox to Teoscar Hernández in recent days. Speier confirms Boston remains interested in Hernández after adding Giolito, indicating they have the financial breathing room to go back to the open market.
Red Sox Interested In Whit Merrifield
The Red Sox have needs at second base and in the outfield and could perhaps address both of those areas with one player. Per a report from Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, the club has “considered” Whit Merrifield and contacted his representatives, though the report characterizes the talks as preliminary with nothing appearing to be imminent.
Merrifield, 35 in January, has spent the past three seasons with offense a bit below league average but providing speed and defensive versatility. Splitting that stretch between the Royals and Blue Jays, the right-handed hitter took 1,862 trips to the plate in 446 games. He hit just 32 home runs in that time and walked at a mere 6.1% clip but also limited his strikeouts to a 15.5% rate. His .268/.311/.385 batting line in that time translates to a wRC+ of 90, or 10% below league average.
But he also stole 82 bases and split his time between second base and the outfield. His work at the keystone was strongly reviewed, as he produced 5 Defensive Runs Saved, 13 Outs Above Average and a grade of 6.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His marks in the outfield were more mixed, but teams love versatility and the ability to passably move around the diamond will certainly be attractive.
The fit with the Red Sox is quite sensible. Earlier this week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke about the club’s needs, saying that the “ideal” second base acquisition for them would be a right-handed hitter who plays plus defense, though he suggested a trade would be more likely than a free agent signing.
Merrifield isn’t the only strong defender who hits from the right side that’s available. Amed Rosario has mostly played shortstop in his career but received decent grades at the keystone with the Dodgers in the second half of 2023. The trade market could perhaps have guys like Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim, though there hasn’t been much to suggest a trade of either is likely. Jonathan India makes some sense as a trade candidate but the Reds have downplayed his availability and he’s generally considered a poor defender. Jorge Polanco is a switch-hitter but his offense is better than his defense and his bat is better from the left side. Brandon Drury could be available if the Angels are stepping back in 2024 but it doesn’t appear as though they will. Christopher Morel could be a good fit but he still has five years of control remaining and the Cubs seem to be trying to use him to pull off a big trade for someone like Pete Alonso or Tyler Glasnow.
All that is to say that the Sox have plenty of options, but Merrifield is one that makes sense. In addition to his right-handed bat and strong second base defense, his ability to move to the outfield could be enticing to them. The Boston outfield mix, even after trading lefty Alex Verdugo, projects to have lefties Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida. The latter will possibly see significant time as designated hitter, but not everyday. Breslow also suggested this week that he would like a right-handed hitter who could play center field but also said that’s not a need. Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and the report linked in the first paragraph suggests the team feels he could viably handle center field.
Merrifield isn’t really someone to be relied on for center. He has just 120 innings there over the past three years and none in 2023. But perhaps the Sox could feel comfortable with a Rafaela up the middle, with Duran playing both left field and some center, as Abreu, Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder chip in at the corners as well. That’s a group fairly light on experience, however, and could perhaps do with a veteran addition. If Merrifield were to take the second base job, it’s possible he’s eventually pushed off by middle infield prospects Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer, but his ability to play the outfield could still allow him to be useful to the club.
MLBTR predicted Merrifield for a two-year, $18MM deal this winter, which would easily fit onto Boston’s payroll at present. Roster Resource lists their 2024 outlay as $164MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $176MM. It’s possible the club doesn’t want to go over the $237MM base threshold for the CBT after a last place finish in the East and with a new decision maker just hired, but that could still leave something like $60MM of wiggle room if they are willing to get near the line.
The club’s priority is pitching, however, which could be why the talks with Merrifield have only been preliminary thus far. If they decide to make a splashy move or two in upgrading their staff, they might be left with little left for pursuing upgrades at second base and the outfield. But Merrifield likely won’t require a ridiculous contract so it’s possible they circle back to him later in the winter after they make their decisions on the pitching front. Merrifield was also connected to the White Sox back in October but that club has since acquire Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake for their middle infield.
Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela
NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander. Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic. Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.
MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors. Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.
More from Fenway Park…
- Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow might be joining the Red Sox front office as the head of pitching development, as per Peter Gammons (on X). The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (also via X) has a contradictory report, saying there has been “zero contact” between the Cubs and Red Sox involving Breslow. A veteran of 12 MLB seasons, Breslow has been working in Chicago’s front office for the better part of five years, becoming the team’s director of pitching in October 2019 and then receiving the AGM title in 2020. Breslow spent parts of five seasons pitching for the Red Sox and he hails from Connecticut, plus Gammons notes that Breslow and his family live in nearby Newton, Massachusetts.
- Justin Turner told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that he hasn’t yet decided about whether or not to exercise his $13.4MM player option for the 2024 season, as his focus is still on finishing the rest of the schedule. As to the possibility of staying with the Sox in general, “I love playing in Boston and I’ve had a great experience here so obviously, it would be fantastic if I was still here,” Turner said. Even at age 38, Turner is still a very solid bat, hitting .278/.348/.463 with 23 homers over 600 plate appearances in his first season with the Red Sox. It figures that the Sox would love to bring Turner back, though they might have to sign him to a new contract altogether — as Cotillo notes, the odds are high that Turner will take the $6.7MM buyout of his option and test free agency again in search of a bigger deal.
- Kenley Jansen is back on the active roster, as the Red Sox activated the closer from the seven-day COVID-related injured list today. (Righty Zack Weiss was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.) Like Turner, Jansen was also a productive signing from the 2022-23 offseason, joining the Sox on a two-year/$32MM deal and delivering 29 saves and a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings in his first season in Beantown.
- The Red Sox rank 27th of 30 teams in second base bWAR this season, as Boston’s second basemen have combined for a sub-replacement level -0.1 bWAR. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looks at how the Sox might address the position next year, and how perhaps the easiest solution would be to give Ceddanne Rafaela some regular time at the keystone. The top prospect has played a few games at second base already, and while the Sox prefer to see what Rafaela’s glove can do in center field, using Rafaela at second base in at least a part-time capacity would open up center field to see if Jarren Duran can build on his promising 2023 campaign. As for Boston’s other in-house second base options, Jennings writes that the club hasn’t yet decided on whether or not to tender Luis Urias a contract this winter, as Urias is set for at least a minimal arbitration raise on his current $4.7MM salary. As Jennings notes, the next front office boss will probably be the one making the call on Urias, and it is possible the Sox might non-tender the infielder and then look to re-sign him at a lower price.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Paredes, Swanson
Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has found limited playing time with the Red Sox since being called up at the end of August despite an overall strong performance at the plate in the majors so far, going 7-for-16 with two doubles. When asked about Rafaela’s playing time, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that Rafaela will continue to play in a reserve role as long as the club remains in the playoff race.
While the playoff odds at Fangraphs give the Red Sox just a 1.3% chance to make the postseason after tonight’s loss to Baltimore, Boston still has three games to go against each of the two clubs directly ahead of them in the standings, Texas and Toronto. That gives them a slim opening for a miracle run despite being a whopping seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot with just three weeks to go in the regular season. With Rafaela’s first taste of everyday action in the big leagues on hold for the time being, the versatile youngster figures to share time at second base with Enmanuel Valdez while also offering backup options to Trevor Story at shortstop and Adam Duvall in center field.
More from the AL East…
- Rays infielder Isaac Paredes exited today’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch from right-hander Luke Weaver during the fifth inning of today’s game against the Mariners. Fortunately for Tampa, x-rays on Paredes’s hand came back negative and the 24-year-old third baseman was diagnosed with a hand contusion. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters (including those at MLB.com) that Paredes won’t be in tomorrow’s starting lineup and is day-to-day, but could be available off the bench if necessary. It’s been a breakout campaign for Paredes in 2023, as the youngster has slashed a fantastic .253/.352/.502 in 497 trips to the plate this season. 22-year-old rookie Osleivis Basabe figures to take over at the hot corner while Parades is out of action.
- The Blue Jays could welcome back right-hander Erik Swanson in the near future. The righty has been out due to thoracic spine inflammation since late August, and he’ll reach the minimum 15 days spent on the IL tomorrow. Swanson made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and notched one strikeout without allowing a baserunner during his inning of work. Assuming he bounces back from tonight’s outing well, MLB.com notes that Swanson could return to the big league club without requiring another rehab appearance. That’s great news for the Blue Jays, as Swanson was perhaps their most reliable set-up man for closer Jordan Romano before he went on the shelf. In 58 innings of work this season, Swanson sports a 3.10 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He figures to form a lethal three-headed-monster at the back of the Toronto bullpen alongside Romano and deadline addition Jordan Hicks should the Blue Jays make it to the postseason.
Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie
Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520
Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.
Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514
Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.
Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586
A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.
Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA
Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.
Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525
Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.
Three More
Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.
Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.
Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela
3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.
3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.
Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.
His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.
As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.
The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.
This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.
That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox
The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.
Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.
There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.
The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.
Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.
The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.
The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.
Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.
The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.
While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.
Big Hype Prospects: Moreno, Ortiz, Casas, Perez, Rafaela
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.
Five BHPs In The News
Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420
Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.
There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.
Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA
The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.
Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481
Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.
Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA
On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.
It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539
The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.
Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.
Three More
Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.
Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.
Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.