Corey Seager

Rangers Sign Corey Seager

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2021 at 11:15am CDT

The Rangers’ huge offseason continues, as Texas has agreed to terms with free agent shortstop Corey Seager on a ten-year deal, the team announced today. According to various reports, it’s a massive $325MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $32.5MM salary in 2022. Seager will make $35MM in 2023, $34.5MM in 2024 and $32MM in 2025 before settling in at $31MM annually from 2026-31 as part of the front-loaded pact. The deal also contains limited no-trade protection but does not feature any opt-out clauses.

It’s the Rangers’ second big-ticket free agent infield pickup of the offseason, as they also agreed to terms with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM deal. The Rangers announced Semien’s signing at the same press conference. Huge as the Rangers’ investment in Semien is, the Seager deal is on a whole other level. The $325MM guarantee will tie Giancarlo Stanton’s November 2014 extension for the sixth-highest sum in MLB history (and Stanton’s was distributed over a thirteen-year term). The $32.5MM average annual value checks in eleventh all-time.

It’s an incredible investment, although that’s a testament to Seager’s blend of productivity and youth. He’ll turn 28 years old next April, making him one of the younger options available in free agency. More importantly, Seager’s one of the game’s best players — a middle-of-the-order lineup presence capable of playing shortstop. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he’s more than lived up to lofty expectations.

Seager has been an above-average bat in every season of his career, and he’s been far better than most at the plate for the bulk of that time. By measure of wRC+, he’s been at least 27 percentage points above the league average in four of his five seasons with 200+ plate appearances. Seager has been especially productive over the past two years, combining for a .306/.381/.545 line over 641 regular season trips to the plate since the start of 2020. That’s the eighth-best offensive production leaguewide (minimum 500 plate appearances) and that’s before considering Seager’s huge showing in the 2020 postseason. He was perhaps the single greatest driver of the Dodgers’ World Series run that year, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors after popping seven homers over 57 combined plate appearances between the two rounds.

Those great bottom line results are supported by Seager’s underlying metrics. He has never struck out at a higher-than-average rate in a season, and he rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. Seager’s 11.7% walk rate in 2021 was the highest of his career, around three percentage points better than the league mark. The left-handed hitter pairs that plate discipline with high-end raw power, consistently rating well above-average in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate and barrel rate (essentially how often a hitter makes hard contact at the optimal angles for power).

Any player with Seager’s offensive acumen would be in high demand, but that kind of production is particularly impressive from a shortstop. Aside from a brief stint at third base in his 2015 rookie season, Seager has exclusively played the infield’s most demanding position. Advanced defensive metrics have been mixed on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him just a touch below-average in each of the past few seasons; Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Seager fairly well in 2019 and 2020 but pegged him as a fair bit below par in 2021.

Those metrics seem to align with the general understanding of Seager’s defense. He’s a competent if unexceptional shortstop, unlikely to either win a Gold Glove nor immediately have to move off the position. His 6’4″, 215-pound frame has led to some speculation he might kick over to third base at some point down the line, but it’s likely the Rangers envision him as a franchise shortstop for at least the next few seasons. Even if Seager eventually has to assume a less demanding defensive role, he should be more than capable of living up to the higher offensive demands of positions further down the defensive spectrum.

While there’s not much to nitpick about Seager as a player, he has dealt with a couple of significant injuries over the past few seasons. He missed the bulk of the 2018 campaign recovering from a UCL sprain that required Tommy John surgery. This past season, he suffered a right hand fracture on a hit-by-pitch that cost him two months. Seager absolutely mashed at a .335/.417/.592 clip upon returning from that most recent issue, though, likely assuaging any fears on the part of teams about his current level of health.

Seager now becomes the centerpiece of an incredible offseason for the Rangers and their fanbase. Texas brass has hinted at the potential for an active winter for months, but it wasn’t until a few weeks ago it became clear ownership might sign off on an historic spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month that the Rangers could add $100MM to their 2022 books alone, and between the recent deals for Seager, Semien, starter Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and corner outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM), they’ve added around $76.7MM to next year’s payroll within the past 36 hours alone.

That’s in part due to the wide open payroll outlook the Rangers carried into the winter. José Leclerc ($5.25MM) is the only other player with guaranteed money on the books for 2022; Seager, Semien and Gray are the club’s only long-term commitments. Active as they’ve been, it’s certainly possible the Rangers aren’t done yet. Texas currently has around $125MM in 2022 player expenditures, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (That assumes the Seager, Semien and Gray deals are paid out relatively evenly; specific contract terms on each have yet to be reported). For a franchise that spent around $160-165MM on players in both 2016 and 2017, there could still be more funds in reserve.

Regardless of what’s to come, the past two days have marked an incredible turnaround for a franchise coming off three last-place finishes in the past four years. That’s not to say the Rangers are certain to contend in 2022. The roster still has plenty of holes, particularly in the starting rotation. Still, installing Seager and Semien into the middle infield and Gray near the top of the rotation locks in some certainty at key areas of the roster.

At the very least, the 2022 Rangers should be far better than the 60-102 team they trotted out in 2021. And Semien, Seager and Gray will all be key pieces of a club that could legitimately contend in 2023 — particularly if top third base prospect Josh Jung hits the ground running as an above-average player alongside their star middle infield.

Until Jung’s arrival, Isiah Kiner-Falefa looks likely to kick back over to third base. The 26-year-old broke in as a third baseman but acclimated well upon a move up the defensive spectrum to shortstop this past season. While the Rangers likely didn’t see displacing Kiner-Falefa as a must, the opportunity to add two members of this offseason’s stacked shortstop class ultimately proved too tempting to pass up. Semien, meanwhile, looks likely to stay at second base, where he spent the 2021 season with the Blue Jays after a lengthy run as the A’s shortstop.

The Rangers already forfeited their second-highest 2022 draft choice and gave up $500K in international bonus pool space to sign Semien, who rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto. They’ll lose another pick to sign Seager, who declined a QO from the Dodgers. Signing multiple qualified free agents in the same offseason actually makes some amount of sense, though.

Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, teams that sign multiple qualified free agents pay a diminishing penalty. A team that already forfeited its second-highest pick on one qualified player (like the Rangers) lose their third-highest pick to sign another qualified free agent. That’s less costly than the second-highest pick other clubs in the Rangers’ revenue bucket would have had to forfeit to land Seager, a small benefit for teams concentrating their big free agent investments in the same offseason.

The primary appeal, though, is in simply adding a pair of star players to the 2022 roster. That’s the position in which the Rangers find themselves, while Seager’s former team finds itself in the opposite situation. The Dodgers have seen both Seager and Max Scherzer (who landed a record-setting three-year deal with the Mets) land elsewhere within the past few days. Los Angeles’ acquisition of Trea Turner from the Nationals at this past summer’s trade deadline gives them another All-Star caliber shortstop capable of stepping into Seager’s place.

Of course, the Dodgers aren’t likely to sit idly by for the rest of the offseason. Particularly as they battle with the Giants (and potentially Padres) in a loaded NL West, it’s likely Los Angeles will continue to explore ways to bolster a still-stacked roster. In the meantime, they’ll receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2022 draft for Seager’s departure as a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Seager’s signing is the latest in a transactions flurry getting in before the looming expiration of the current CBA on Wednesday night. Seager’s and Scherzer’s departures from L.A. could have a massive impact on the NL West race, while the Rangers’ run of big-ticket acquisitions and the Mariners’ agreement on a nine-figure deal with Robbie Ray will have reverberations in the AL West for years to come.

Finally, Seager’s deal becomes a key data point for the rest of the free agent shortstops remaining, particularly Carlos Correa. While Seager and Correa were the clear top two names in this winter’s class, Correa is generally expected to command a loftier deal based on his superior defense at shortstop. Seager’s guarantee, however, comes in above MLBTR’s ten-year, $305MM estimate entering the winter. In light of the robust market we’ve seen in recent weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Correa also tops his ten-year, $320MM projection whenever he puts pen to paper. That’s particularly true in light of the Rangers signing two of the top five shortstops. The Yankees, Phillies, Mariners and Astros are among the other clubs who could still be motivated to land a long-term infielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Rangers and Seager were in agreement on a ten-year, $325MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the limited no-trade protection and the $5MM signing bonus, as well as the absence of any form of opt-out clause. Levi Weaver of the Athletic was first with the specific contract breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Making Push For Corey Seager

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2021 at 2:15pm CDT

The Rangers have already agreed to terms with one of the five big free-agent shortstops, hammering out a seven-year, $175MM deal with Marcus Semien. They’re reportedly still in the market for another infield upgrade, however, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that they’re making a “big push” to sign Corey Seager.

Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night (Twitter links) that the Rangers were in play for Seager even after agreeing to the Semien deal, with Sherman adding that Seager is hopeful he’ll choose a new club today. And Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier today that the Rangers remained “very much” in the hunt for Seager as of this morning.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that both the Rangers and Dodgers were more much more involved in the Seager market than the Yankees, who aren’t believed to have been as aggressive on the 27-year-old. That meshes both with the idea of Texas still being a serious player for Seager and with recent reports suggesting that the Yanks might not sign any of the big-name free agent this winter.

It’s far from clear that Seager’s market is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Rangers at this point. That said, both parties can certainly afford to sign Seager long-term, and the Dodgers did just tap out during the bidding for ace Max Scherzer, who’s headed to the Mets on a record-setting three-year contract. Seager, like Scherzer (and Semien), is represented by the Boras Corporation, so it’s perhaps possible now that with Scherzer and Semien resolved, the focus will turn to finding a landing spot for Seager.

Seager rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers at season’s end and is widely expected to cash in on a contract that spans upwards of a decade in length. The former first-round pick and NL Rookie of the Year has posted a combined .306/.381/.545 batting line with 31 homers through his past 147 games/641 plate appearances.

While the Rangers already have Semien in tow and have another capable defensive shortstop in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the defensive flexibility both Semien and Kiner-Falefa bring to the table allows Texas to be rather nimble in its offseason pursuits. Seager could conceivably play either shortstop or third base, while both Kiner-Falefa and Semien can handle any of third, short or second base. Signing Seager would headline what’s been a highly aggressive offseason thus far for a Rangers club that has not only signed Semien but also agreed to deals with righty Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM).

Report: “Belief” That Corey Seager Will Sign Monday

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2021 at 11:56pm CDT

Free agent shortstop Corey Seager could be nearing his next contract, as The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that there is a “belief” that Seager will sign on Monday. Seager was known to be leaning towards finding a new team before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and interestingly, that same report indicated the same about another prominent Scott Boras client in Marcus Semien.

Just earlier today, Semien indeed did sign, inking a seven-year, $175MM agreement with the Rangers. Seager had also engaged in some talks with the Rangers, and both Sherman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal feel there is a distinct chance Seager may still land in Texas. Presumably, Seager and Semien would work as the Rangers’ new middle infield combination, though it would remain to be seen exactly where either of the duo would line up.

Seager has spent virtually all of his career at shortstop but his defensive numbers aren’t great, and there is a perception that Seager might be within a few years of moving to third base or perhaps even second base. Semien, meanwhile, is the better defensive shortstop of the two, though Semien spent 2021 playing as a second baseman with the Blue Jays while Bo Bichette manned the shortstop position. Texas also has some incumbents to consider, as top third base prospect Josh Jung is ready for his MLB debut, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an excellent defender at either shortstop or third base.

The fact that the Rangers can now even weigh all of these possibilities is indicative of the new doors opened by the team’s willingness to spend big this winter, as the Rangers are making a sharp turn towards contention after five straight losing seasons. Texas has already signed Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun within the last 12 hours, so adding Seager would be just the latest addition to what has already been a frenzy of activity for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels.

Trevor Story is another one of the major free agent shortstops who had been linked to the Rangers, and Rosenthal seems to frame Story as something of a backup plan, noting that Story is “also possible if Rangers cannot get Seager.” The fact that Boras represents both Semien and Seager could make coordinating such a double-signing easier, though it isn’t as if Daniels and company have never had dealings with Story’s reps at Excel (Kolby Allard is an Excel client on the Texas roster, for instance).

While Boras has a reputation for waiting until deep into the offseason to find acceptable contracts for his free agent clients, Sherman notes that at the GM Meetings in early November, teams felt Boras would have deals lined up for Seager, Semien, and Max Scherzer before December 1 and what is expected to be a management lockout following the CBA’s expiration. Beyond Semien’s deal, Scherzer also seems to be nearing an agreement with the Mets, which perhaps increases the chances that Seager will also get his contract done in short order.

Beyond the Rangers, the Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees are other teams who have been linked to Seager’s market, though New York is reportedly planning to wait until after the lockout and subsequent transactions freeze to pursue a shortstop, as the club would prefer a shorter-term commitment. If Scherzer does sign with the Mets, it could spur the Dodgers to make a bigger push for Seager so as to not lose both of their biggest in-house free agents. Semien’s departure from the market could also spur any of the teams also looking for shortstop or general infield help (such as the Phillies, Blue Jays, or Angels) to look closer at Seager.

Yankees “Monitoring” Rather Than Pursuing Top Free Agent Shortstops?

By Mark Polishuk | November 21, 2021 at 9:27pm CDT

The Yankees have a stated need at shortstop and have already been in touch with several of the biggest names in the free agent shortstop market, and yet it isn’t yet clear if the Bronx Bombers are actually planning to make such a big signing. The New York Daily News’ Matthew Roberson wrote earlier this week that the Yankees were planning to focus on other needs rather than spend big at shortstop since prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are a year or two away from the majors, and Joel Sherman of The New York Post offers a similar sentiment today, though with a caveat.

According to agents and rival executives, Sherman says the Yankees are less full-on participating in the shortstop market than they are “monitoring” the situation and “waiting to see if a market collapses, in which case they might still swoop in to try to sign one.” For instance, in the event of a league-wide transactions freeze following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, free agents would be in limbo until the freeze was lifted, possibly leading to a sudden surge of deals during Spring Training. This could create a rushed scenario where one of the top five free agent shortstops can’t find an acceptable long-term deal and could be open to a one-year deal from the Yankees — perhaps akin to the one-year, $25MM pact the Bombers offered Justin Verlander before he re-signed with the Astros.

Even if none of the “big five” shortstops are available at such a price, waiting until later in the offseason might also open up more trade possibilities for the Yankees at the position, Sherman notes. In any sense, it doesn’t appear that New York is willing to make a long-term commitment at shortstop, and if a multi-year mega-deal is struck, it might be a contract extension for a known quantity like Aaron Judge.

If the Yankees did extend Judge and add prominent names to the rotation or at other positions (i.e. first base or center field), Bronx fans might be satisfied with the team opting to acquire a lesser shortstop than any of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story. Then again, for a fanbase used to their team splurging on premium talents, sitting out this star-studded market when shortstop is such a clear need probably won’t be received all that well no matter what other players join the roster. It also puts extra pressure on Volpe and Peraza to produce, as while the duo are highly-regarded minor leaguers, Sherman notes that the Yankees haven’t gotten consistent results from many of their top homegrown position players in recent years.

The December 1 CBA date has added plenty of extra uncertainty and urgency to this year’s offseason market. Last week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that Seager and Semien could be among the players more eager to get a new deal finalized before the CBA expires. In in the nine days since Passan’s report, there hasn’t been any inkling that Seager or Semien are particularly close to a contract, though multiple teams (including the Yankees) have been known to be interested in both players. Of the prominent free agents who have already signed contracts, the majority have been pitchers — Brandon Belt is the only position player within MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list that has already put pen to paper, accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer.

One or more of the top shortstops leaving the market would certainly have an effect the Yankees’ plans to wait out a freeze, but even all of the five big names signing elsewhere might not do much to impact what ultimately might be something of a “plan B” for the team. If anything, a February signing flurry might allow New York to obtain a stopgap shortstop (their bridge to Volpe and Peraza) at a lesser price, since non-elite free agents are likely to be more heavily affected by a freeze than the names at the top of the market.

AL West Notes: Angels, Thor, Seager, Semien, Rangers, Olson

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 9:02pm CDT

The Angels signed Noah Syndergaard earlier this week, a move that came about due to a very ardent pursuit by the front office. Speaking with The Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris, The Associated Press, and other reporters, Syndergaard said the Angels were the very first team to get in touch with him after the free agent period opened, and his own interest in Anaheim grew after a three-hour dinner with Angels GM Perry Minasian. The executive presented detailed plans on several topics, including how the team would manage the right-hander’s innings in 2022, and some mechanical adjustments the Angels were looking to make based on their analysis of Syndergaard’s tape. “It was a breath of fresh air to hear that, to know his baseball knowledge,” Syndergaard said. “He was able to break down some of the flaws I had over the past couple years….I trust that what they saw, they’re going to be able to fix, and I’ll get back to my old self.”

Plenty of preparation went into the meeting on Minasian’s end, as he said “As far as man hours, the amount of work we’ve done, I don’t know if I’ve ever done more on an individual player.” The Angels had to be sure that Syndergaard was fully recovered after missing essentially two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery rehab, and their offer also matched Syndergaard’s desire to re-enter the market next winter with what he hopes will be a full and healthy season under his belt. Syndergaard said that while he initially expected to remain with the Mets, “I didn’t really hear from them all that much in the last two months from the end of the season until now.” This lack of communication may have been the result of the Mets’ long search for a new front office boss, and Syndergaard indicated that the ever-ongoing drama surrounding the team influenced his decision to sign elsewhere. “This is an important year for me. This is kind of a make-or-break time for me. I didn’t want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that’s been going on with them,” the righty said.

Yankees Notes: Shortstop, Judge, Gardner, Coaching Staff

By Anthony Franco | November 18, 2021 at 11:03pm CDT

There are plenty of opportunities available for the Yankees, widely expected to be one of the league’s more active teams this winter. After dipping below the luxury tax threshold to reset their penalties in 2021, it seems the club is poised for a big offseason.

Early comments from general manager Brian Cashman have stoked that fire, with the baseball ops leader telling reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the front office has some financial leeway. Owner Hal Steinbrenner echoed that sentiment, telling David Lennon of Newsday that Cashman’s suggestion is “accurate.” The New York chairman declined to delve into specifics about where the club’s budgetary limit might land, but he didn’t downplay the possibility of some noteworthy moves.

The most straightforward path to a big winter would seem to be dipping into the free agent shortstop market. Not only has Cashman already professed a desire to upgrade the position, he’s confirmed the club has been in contact with the reps for multiple free agents. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this week that the Yankees and incumbent Dodgers were among the clubs with interest in Corey Seager, while Yankees’ brass has expressed a willingness to consider Carlos Correa despite his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

It remains to be seen whether the Yankees will be willing to commit anywhere in the neighborhood of the $300+MM guarantees it could take to land Seager or Correa though. The club has two of the game’s most promising shortstop prospects — Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe — rising up the minor league ranks. Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News reported yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to pursue a stopgap option than to play at the top of the market at the position based on the belief that Peraza and/or Volpe could take the reins in the not too distant future. If the Yankees were to eschew the star free agents at the top of the market, Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis could profile as short-term options to stabilize the infield defense.

Whether the Yankees should be willing to sit out this offseason’s shortstop class is up for debate, but doing so could allow them to allocate more funds towards locking up star outfielder Aaron Judge on a long-term deal. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Judge to command a salary in the $17.1MM range in 2022, his final season of arbitration eligibility. The three-time All-Star is slated to reach free agency next offseason.

Judge has already expressed openness to an extension. Cashman told reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) this evening the club was willing to talk about a long-term deal with Judge’s representatives but hasn’t yet opened talks. Locking up Judge at this stage of his career would no doubt require a massive investment. The 29-year-old has already banked a significant amount during his run through arbitration, and he’s coming off a stellar .287/.373/.544 showing across 633 plate appearances.

A reunion with Brett Gardner would require a far smaller outlay but could eventually be on the to-do list. The Yankees have continued to bring the fourteen-year veteran back in recent seasons, but the 38-year-old is currently a free agent after both sides declined their ends of a 2022 option. The Yankees haven’t discussed a potential reunion with Gardner’s reps in the early stages of the offseason, Cashman said (via Hoch), but the GM said his belief is the career-long Yankee intends to continue playing.

In non-player news, Cashman also expressed a desire to expand the coaching staff. The Yankees are planning to hire three hitting coaches and an additional pitching instructor (Hoch link). That’s become an increasingly common approach, particularly this offseason. We’ve already seen teams like the Brewers and Orioles hire two hitting instructors as co-hitting coaches, with an assistant working underneath that top duo. The Yankees parted ways with previous hitting coach Marcus Thames at the end of the season.

Early Qualifying Offer Decisions

By Anthony Franco | November 15, 2021 at 2:17pm CDT

Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.

We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.

Rejected QO

Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
Carlos Correa, Astros (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
Eduardo Rodríguez, Red Sox (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
Nick Castellanos, Reds (first reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer)
Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
Corey Seager, Dodgers (first reported by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times)
Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (first reported by Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet)

Decision Not Yet Reported

Brandon Belt, Giants
Freddie Freeman, Braves
Raisel Iglesias, Angels
Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
Trevor Story, Rockies
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Justin Verlander, Astros

Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.

Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2021 at 11:02pm CDT

The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.

That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.

To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.

Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.

Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.

There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.

Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.

To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.

Latest On Tigers’ Pursuit Of A Shortstop

By Sean Bavazzano | November 12, 2021 at 7:07pm CDT

The Tigers continue to cast a wide net in free agency as they attempt to build off an encouraging 2021 season. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the team has already spoken to representatives for six of this winter’s premier middle infielders (Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Javier Báez, and Chris Taylor). Morosi notes in a separate tweet that there’s some industry uncertainty over whether the Tigers would sign a player in the $250MM range, but that may have less to do with the team’s regard for the free agent shortstops and more to do with Detroit’s rotation needs.

It’s commonplace for teams to perform due diligence checks with agents in the offseason, even if the team isn’t optimistic about its chances to sign a certain player. Still, there is a perception among some in the sport that a few teams could be aggressive and move quickly in their pursuit of high-end free agents. The Tigers were among the teams listed as candidates to sign prominent players before the current CBA expires.

Detroit can afford to be opportunistic in the very literal sense that they have a ton of open payroll space. Even after extending Jonathan Schoop and their recent acquisition of Tucker Barnhart, the team has a projected 2022 payroll of just $93MM per Roster Resource. Non-tenders would shrink that estimate even further, and Detroit has a few prominent non-tender candidates (most notably Matthew Boyd) on large projected arb salaries. Given that the Tigers ran out a $200MM roster as recently as 2017, it’s easy to see the current payroll swelling in order to fling open the team’s competitive window.

Owing to this financial flexibility and a middle-infield that collectively posted a sub-.700 OPS last season, it’s understandable why the team would zero in on the solutions presented on the open market. Complicating this approach, however, is that Detroit has a very young rotation that posted middling run-prevention numbers last year.

The high-upside group of starters is likely to tap into some of its potential with more experience, but there’s validity in surrounding this pitching core with more proven commodities. After all, even if the team is hopeful each of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning take a step forward, certain rotation-wide stats like a 4.66 FIP (4.17 ERA) and a low 18.8% strikeout rate portray a staff that is very much headed for regression.

Those three youngsters, of course, were not the only members of this past season’s rotation. Both Boyd and Spencer Turnbull soaked up innings for Detroit in 2021, providing some of the best numbers the pitching staff had to offer. Unfortunately, both players saw their productive seasons end prematurely. Boyd pitched to a personal-best 3.89 ERA across 15 starts for the team before being shut down to undergo forearm surgery that looks likely to lead to him being let go.

The 29-year-old Turnbull was amidst an even stronger season. Through eight starts and 50 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.88 ERA with superb command and ground-ball tendencies, to say nothing of the no-hitter he twirled against Seattle in May. News broke that Turnbull would require Tommy John surgery in July and, similar to Boyd, will likely miss the majority of the 2022 season. While the injury-created voids in next year’s rotation are far from ideal, one silver lining is that Detroit will at least maintain control of Turnbull through the 2024 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).

Taking a two-pronged approach to the free agent market makes perfect sense then, since the Tigers can invest just about any level of resources to upgrade their middle infield and then use another chunk of their payroll to buttress their rotation. Detroit has already been linked to a number of mid-rotation starters, giving them multiple avenues to make a splash this offseason.

Yankees’ Cashman On Carlos Correa, Anthony Rizzo

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2021 at 10:43am CDT

The GM Meetings are taking place in Carlsbad, California, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to reporters yesterday. Cashman said he has “some latitude” on the team’s budget, after talking to owner Hal Steinbrenner. The club was able to stay below the base luxury tax threshold of $210MM this year, effectively resetting as a first-time payor for future penalties – if something resembling the current system remains in place in the next collective bargaining agreement.

Cashman acknowledged to reporters that he’s already had talks with the agents for two free agent shortstops. Those players are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden. ESPN’s Buster Olney is hearing that the Yankees’ pursuit of a shortstop will remain focused on elite players of this nature. Chandler Rome from the Houston Chronicle has more from Cashman on the Yankees’ interest in Correa. Cashman explained, “(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously. Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing fallout) has not affected his play.”

There’s been a sentiment that perhaps Yankees fans would not tolerate or accept Correa. That doesn’t seem to be Cashman’s primary concern, as the fans’ reaction “is not going to enter my calculus right now.”

Correa, who seems unlikely to sign before a potential December lockout, is reported to have received a five-year, $160MM offer from the Astros that seems more for show than anything. As the top player on the free agent market, Correa is in line for $300MM or more.

Cashman has also spoken to the agent for first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who appeared in 50 games for the Yankees after a July trade. The GM noted, “He obviously was really good for us, we feel, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side and on the leadership side, so he brings a lot of good things to the table. I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that.” Rizzo, 32, put up a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees. In projecting a three-year, $45MM contract, MLBTR took into account intangibles like Rizzo’s reputation around the game.

The Yankees still have an incumbent first baseman in Luke Voit, who was limited to 68 games on the season due to injuries. MLBTR projects Voit to earn $5.4MM next year, and it’s possible the Yankees move on from him. Voit’s troublesome left knee is “resolved,” according to Cashman.

Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Yankees at first base is a trade for Matt Olson of the Athletics. Olson, 28 in March, posted a 146 wRC+ with 39 home runs this year and is projected to earn $12MM through arbitration. According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the Yankees have internally discussed trading for Olson.

The Yankees would also like to add some help in center field, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Aaron Hicks, who played in only 32 games this year, is still owed $41MM through 2025. Hicks, whose season ended in May due to wrist surgery, hopes to play winter ball, noted Lindsey Adler of The Athletic back in October. The Yankees filled the void this year with 38-year-old Brett Gardner, who recently declined his $2.3MM player option in favor of a $1.15MM buyout. The free agent market for center fielders also includes Starling Marte, Juan Lagares, Chris Taylor, Kevin Pillar, and eventually Odubel Herrera. The trade market could include Kevin Kiermaier, Ketel Marte, and Byron Buxton.

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