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Erick Fedde

Report: Cardinals Have “Strong Interest” In Erick Fedde

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The Cardinals have “strong interest” in White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning. Fedde is among a number of controllable pieces that the White Sox have made available this summer, alongside breakout left-hander Garrett Crochet and star center fielder Luis Robert Jr.

Fedde, 31, lacks the star power of either Crochet or Robert but is nonetheless one of the most attractive pieces expected to be available this summer. The former first-round pick was a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball in the late 2010’s but generally struggled at the big league level after debuting with the Nationals back in 2017. In parts of six season with the club, Fedde posted a lackluster 5.41 ERA in 102 appearances, including 88 starts. Those struggles led Fedde to depart affiliate ball to pitch in the Korea Baseball Organization last year, and the stint overseas hardly could’ve gone better for the righty. In an MVP campaign for the NC Dinos, Fedde posted a sterling 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts while striking out 29.5% of batters faced.

The righty’s success overseas earned him renewed stateside interest this past winter, and the White Sox ultimately pounced by offering him a two-year, $15MM guarantee. The deal has gone about as well as anyone could’ve have hoped so far. Through 19 starts this season, Fedde appears to be an entirely different pitcher than he was in his days with the Nationals. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a near-match for his career-best mark from 2021, and his 6.6% walk rate is by far the lowest of his MLB career. After allowing a whopping 18.1% of his fly balls to the leave the yard for home runs during his time with the Nationals, Fedde has greatly improved in that regard this year as well with just 9.2% of his fly balls ending up in the stands so far. In all, that’s left Fedde with an excellent 2.99 ERA (138 ERA+) and a solid 3.53 FIP (82 FIP-) in 111 1/3 innings of work this season.

That sort of production would be welcome in virtually any contender’s rotation, and it’s surely all the more enticing for clubs that Fedde is under control for the 2025 season at a bargain $7.5MM price tag as well. That combination of low financial cost, team control, and production makes Fedde a strong candidate for virtually any pitching-hungry team in the league, so it’s easy to see why the Cardinals would have interest in the right-hander’s services.

Injury woes have kept veteran lefty Steven Matz out of action since late April, forcing the Cardinals to rely on pieces like Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore to fill out the rotation behind Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson. Even that front quartet has yielded mix results, with Gray and Gibson’s solid numbers being offset by the struggles of Lynn and Mikolas. Altogether, Cardinals starters this season have delivered a lackluster 4.43 ERA that ranks in the bottom ten among all major league clubs.

Despite those woes in the rotation, St. Louis has surged since an early-season slump and is currently sitting at a 52-47 record that places them firmly in the NL Wild Card picture and just five games back of the Brewers for the NL Central crown. The addition of a quality, playoff-caliber starter to their rotation would be a huge boost not only for their chances of making it into the postseason, but also for their odds in a potential Wild Card series, where Fedde could pair with Gray to make an impressive front two that could go toe-to-toe with most contenders in the NL. What’s more, Fedde’s additional year of team control could make him a particularly attractive option for a club that currently boasts 33-year-old Matz as the youngest arm in the rotation, and could stand to lose both Gibson and Lynn to free agency this winter if the club declines their club options on the veteran duo.

White Sox Open To Offers On Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet

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The White Sox are baseball’s worst team by a long shot and seemed to acknowledge that likelihood even before the season began when they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres in spring training. San Diego is already reportedly interested in yet another Sox pitcher, lefty Garrett Crochet, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Sox are open to offers not only on Crochet but on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Passan categorizes the ChiSox as “open for business” and lists Robert, Crochet, Erick Fedde and virtually all of the team’s short-term veterans as players who could be moved between now and the trade deadline.

Fedde, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mike Clevinger, John Brebbia, Tim Hill and other players who aren’t signed long-term — Fedde is signed through next season, the others are all free agents this winter — all stood as obvious trade candidates to begin with. I wrote about Fedde’s trade candidacy for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. DeJong recently said on 670 The Score in Chicago that he and Pham both fully expect to be traded. That anyone from that group is viewed as likely to change hands is only logical.

Names like Robert and Crochet being available is far less certain, even for a rebuilding club like the Sox, given the amount of club control each has remaining. In Robert’s case, he’s signed through the 2027 season in the form of a $12.5MM salary this season, a $15MM salary in 2025 and a pair of club options valued at $20MM apiece (both with a $2MM buyout). Crochet entered the 2024 campaign with three years of big league service, meaning he’s in his first arbitration season and has another pair of seasons of club control beyond 2024.

It bears emphasizing that the Sox being “open” to offers or “willing to trade” either player is far different from the team actively shopping said players. That open-minded approach is also far from a guarantee that either will be moved. The substantial control remaining beyond the current season means Chicago GM Chris Getz will set an enormous asking price on both players, and both will still retain tremendous trade value into the offseason and even into next year’s deadline if a deal doesn’t come together this summer.

Robert, still just 26 years old, returned from the injured list yesterday after an absence of nearly two months. He suffered a Grade 2 strain of his hip flexor early in the season and was sidelined for the bulk of April and the entirety of May. He wasted little time in reminding the type of impact he brings to a game, going 2-for-4 with a homer in his return effort. The Cuban-born five-tool standout has played in only eight games and taken just 33 plate appearances this season but carries a .250/.273/.594 batting line with three homers.

Last year saw Robert take his always tantalizing game to new heights. The dynamic center fielder stayed healthy for a career-high 145 games and posted a stout .264/.315/.542 batting line with a career-high 38 home runs, 36 doubles, a triple and 20 stolen bases (in 24 tries). Robert ranked in the 84th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast, and was among the league leaders in barrel rate. He’s a premium outfield defender with plus range and an above-average arm — evidenced both by gaudy Statcast percentile rankings and by career marks of +13 Defensive Runs Saved and +24 Outs Above Average in 3116 innings of work.

Durability and an over-aggressive approach at the plate are the primary knocks on Robert, who is two months into his fifth MLB season and already has five career IL placements for injury (plus another shorter stay on the Covid-related injured list). Robert played in 56 of 60  games during his rookie showing in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but he logged just 68 and 98 games in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and he could finish the 2024 season with fewer than 100 games played as well, thanks to one already lengthy absence. He’s now had significant strains of his left and right hip flexors, in addition to an MCL sprain and a wrist strain in his career.

In terms of Robert’s approach at the plate, the results are strong so it’s hard to be too critical. But Robert rarely walks (career 5.3%) and chases pitches off the plate more than nearly any player in the sport. Since his 2020 debut, only Salvador Perez, Harold Ramirez and Javier Baez swing at more balls out of the strike zone than Robert’s massive 46.3% (at least among qualified hitters). His 54.6% contact rate on such swings is well below average, and his career 83.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple points south of par. It hasn’t led to an exorbitant strikeout rate just yet — Robert has fanned in 25.5% of his career plate appearances — but it’s a less-than-ideal trend that could worsen if Robert loses what Statcast currently measures as elite bat speed (seventh fastest in the majors, on average).

There’s little precedent for a player of this quality with this level of affordability and team control being traded. Robert is owed just under $8MM through season’s end as of this writing plus another $45MM over the next three seasons. Three-and-a-half years of an MVP-caliber talent at a maximum rate of $63MM is a raucous bargain by today’s contractual standards. Teams may be wary of Robert’s injury history and free-swinging ways, but he’s signed for the remainder of his 20s and would be a legitimately franchise-altering deadline acquisition if a team can put together an impressive enough trade offer. Robert might not quite command the type of haul the Padres sent to the Nats for Juan Soto a couple years back, but he’s closer to that level of value than the standard deadline trade candidates. Getz alluded to as much in the offseason, calling Robert “one of the best players in baseball” and noting that he was a “difficult player to trade.”

There are similarities, in terms of trade value, when it comes to Crochet. It’s rare to see a high-end pitcher with two and a half seasons of club control traded at the deadline. Crochet is extra appealing given that his injuries and former role in the bullpen have tamped down his first-year arbitration price. He’s being paid only $800K this season. He’ll be due a pair of notable raises in each of the next two offseasons but still isn’t likely to command even $15MM in salary over those two years.

The 24-year-old Crochet’s transition from reliever to starter hit a brief snag with a trio of rough outings in mid-April, but he’s on an absolute tear right now and looks the part of a frontline starter, as one might expect for a former first-round talent who has long been touted to have ace upside. In 13 starts, Crochet is sitting on a 3.49 earned run average with vastly better fielding-independent marks (2.87 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). That’s due largely to his elite strikeout and walk numbers; Crochet has punched out 33.7% of his opponents against just a 5.4% walk rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average 45.9% clip and averaging a blazing 96.9 mph on his heater.

Since that set of consecutive rough outings in April, Crochet has been on another planet. Arguably baseball’s best pitcher in that time, he’s logged a 1.35 ERA with a 53-to-7 K/BB ratio over his past 40 innings. Crochet allowed five, seven and five earned runs in his run of three straight rocky April outings. He’s yielded two or fewer runs in each of his ten other starts this season.

Rival clubs might be wary of how well he’ll hold up over the course of a full season in the rotation. It’s a fair qualm, as Crochet pitched just 25 innings last season and didn’t pitch at all in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year’s 69 2/3 innings are already a new career-high for the lefty, who entered 2024 with only 85 1/3 professional innings total (majors and minors combined). That said, even if there are concerns about Crochet fading down the stretch, there’s considerable long-term upside, as one would imagine the effects of a full starter’s workload will be more normalized for him in 2025 and 2026. If he wears down later this year, he’s also quite familiar with pitching in short relief.

Any trepidation about how he’ll hold up this year hasn’t stopped the Padres from reaching out to the White Sox. They’ve reportedly inquired on the lefty and have strong interest in him, which makes sense given not only Crochet’s dominance and San Diego’s need for arms, but also his minimal salary and the Friars’ relative proximity to the luxury tax barrier. Adding one of the game’s most dominant pitchers while barely even advancing your luxury tax line ought to hold overwhelming appeal for the majority of the team’s highest-spending clubs. At the same time, Crochet’s minimal salary also makes him appealing to small-market clubs with payroll concerns. Short of the innings worries, he’s an ideal trade target.

Because of that, the asking price on Crochet figures to be extreme, just as it will be with Robert. If Getz and his team genuinely make both available and play some bidders against one another, the Sox could genuinely overhaul the entire farm system with this pair of trades — to say nothing of deals involving Fedde, Pham and the other previously mentioned veterans. It’s going to take an enormous package of prospects to pry either player from the Sox, but with widespread mediocrity permeating the National League and leaving few teams in position to truly wave the white flag on the 2024 season, it could be a seller’s market. There’s no salvaging this lost season for the South Siders, but getting one or both of these trades right could wildly accelerate their rebuilding efforts.

The White Sox Shouldn’t Wait Long To Make Their Next Trade

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For the second time in the past ten years, the White Sox find themselves in a full-scale rebuild. Unlike many other clubs that have torn the roster down to the studs and built back up, there was no real halcyon period between the two rebuilds. The South Siders tore it all down after the 2015 season, finished no better than 72 wins in any of the next four seasons, and had a two-year run atop the AL Central -- one of which was the shortened 2020 season --  before their next nosedive. The 2020 Sox lost to the A's in a three-game Wild Card series. The 2021 Sox lost to the Astros in the ALDS. That was that. Chicago finished the 2022 season with a disappointing 81-81 record, and they drove off a cliff in 2023 with a 101-loss season that led to the firing of longtime baseball operations execs Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams.

Former assistant GM Chris Getz was tasked with turning things around. His offseason consisted of trading Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos in a series of future-focused swaps. The ChiSox made mostly modest additions to the big league roster, with a heavy focus on improving the club's defense.

The rebuild continued into the early stages of the 2024 season. Getz's front office inked Robbie Grossman to a minor league contract in late March and managed to flip him after just 25 games. It was a rare sight, both due to Grossman's short tenure with the team but also because he netted the White Sox an actual prospect: Double-A reliever Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa. May trades of big league players -- particularly those who just signed in the offseason -- are exceedingly rare. Most early trades of this nature come on the heels of a DFA. That wasn't the case here. As Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week's podcast, this was more akin to a lower-profile trade deadline swap. It was frankly a nice bit of business for the White Sox.

Getz and his staff shouldn't stop here, and their next swap should also come sooner than later. While there's any number of players on the White Sox' roster who make sense as a trade candidate, there's one in particular who stands as a logical early-season target for other clubs.

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White Sox Making Changes In Rotation

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The 6-25 White Sox are shuffling up their rotation mix a bit. Manager Pedro Grifol told the Sox beat yesterday that right-hander Brad Keller would likely move into the rotation in the near future (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com), and he’s now listed as the probable starter Friday. Meanwhile, right-hander Mike Clevinger has made a pair of starts in Triple-A Charlotte since returning on a one-year deal and is likely to join the rotation next week, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Right-hander Erick Fedde has been Chicago’s only above-average starter this season. Lefty Garrett Crochet started brilliantly but has been hit hard of late, ballooning his ERA to just under 6.00. Michael Soroka, Jonathan Cannon, Chris Flexen and Nick Nastrini have all made multiple starts but all came into today with an ERA north of 6.00. Flexen allowed just two earned runs over five innings today, lowering his ERA to 4.85. The Sox have combined for a 5.52 ERA out of the rotation, ranking 29th in the big leagues — ahead of only the Rockies. White Sox starters have averaged an MLB-worst 1.61 homers per nine frames.

Keller, 28, is a longtime division foe for the Sox, having spent his entire big league career prior to this season with the Royals. From 2018-20, Keller emerged as a steadying presence for Kansas City, going from a Rule 5 long reliever to a core member of the rotation. He pitched 360 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball during that stretch, but his career went the opposite direction in three subsequent seasons.

From 2021-23, Keller was tagged for a 5.14 ERA as his command took a noticeable turn for the worse. He was limited to just 45 1/3 innings in 2023, logging a 4.57 ERA but issuing an alarming 45 walks along the way. Keller’s season ended early due to thoracic outlet symptoms. He inked a minor league deal with the ChiSox during the offseason and has made one scoreless relief appearance (1 2/3 innings) in addition to three starts at the Triple-A level, where he turned in a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings and piled up grounders at a huge 62.5% clip.

Clevinger will be entering his second season with the Sox. He started 24 games for the South Siders last year and notched a 3.77 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 30.9% ground-ball rate. Despite a solid season on the mound, Clevinger lingered in free agency and ultimately settled on a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the White Sox. He signed late enough that he required the current Triple-A tune-up before joining the big league rotation.

It’s not immediately clear who’ll lose their spot. Nastrini and Cannon have both already been optioned to Triple-A. Soroka and Flexen are veteran stopgaps who are only signed for the current season. Flexen has struggled mightily in the rotation and fared better in a pair of bullpen appearances, but as mentioned, he had a nice performance in today’s series finale against the Twins. Soroka has completed five innings in just three of his seven starts. Crochet’s workload figures to be monitored after he pitched just 24 1/3 frames last year in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He’s never topped 54 1/3 innings in a professional season since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

White Sox Designate Yohan Ramirez For Assignment

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The White Sox have officially announced their deal with right-hander Erick Fedde, with fellow righty Yohan Ramirez designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Ramirez, 29 in May, was just claimed off waivers from the Pirates in September. He has 124 innings of major league experience to this point, having thrown for the Mariners, Guardians, Pirates and White Sox. He has an earned run average of 3.99 in that time, having struck out 23.2% of opponents and kept 44.9% of balls in play on the ground but also walking opponents at a 12.5% clip.

The righty burned his final option season in 2023 and will therefore be out of options going forward. That gives him a bit less appeal, since he can no longer be sent to Triple-A without first being exposed to waivers, therefore making it harder to utilize him as a depth piece.

The Sox have removed him from the roster now and will have a week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers. Ramirez is currently a bit shy of three years of MLB service time and doesn’t have a previous career outright. That means he wouldn’t be able to elect free agency if he were to make it through waivers unclaimed.

White Sox, Erick Fedde Agree To Two-Year Contract

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The White Sox are in agreement with right-hander Erick Fedde on a two-year, $15MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal is pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that Fedde, a client of the Boras Corporation, was nearing a two-year pact and named the White Sox and Mets as finalists.

Fedde returns to the majors after one season in South Korea. He’d signed a one-year, $1MM pact with the KBO’s NC Dinos last December. A few weeks earlier, Fedde had been non-tendered by the Nationals, with whom he’d spent his entire pro career up to that point. Within 12 months, he has dramatically raised his profile.

The 30-year-old righty turned in an excellent season for the Dinos. He pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings covering 30 starts. He struck out an excellent 29.5% of batters faced while walking under 5% of opposing hitters. As a result of that dominant showing, he was named the KBO’s Most Valuable Player.

Before his move to Korea, Fedde had a fairly nondescript run in Washington. The 6’4″ hurler was a first round draft choice in 2014. He received some Top 100 prospect attention as a potentially quick-moving college starter. Fedde got to the majors midway through the 2017 season but didn’t solidify himself in the rotation for a few years. He spent time on the injured list with shoulder inflammation during the 2018 campaign and bounced between the nation’s capital and Triple-A in ’19.

Fedde carved out a spot in the Nats rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. He’d hold that role for the next three seasons, combining to log 310 2/3 innings over 67 appearances. The results weren’t great, as he posted a 5.42 ERA with a middling 18.1% strikeout rate. Rather than meet a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary last offseason, Washington moved on.

While surely a tough pill to swallow at the time, Fedde has come out ahead following the non-tender. This past August, he told the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty that he’d developed more horizontal action on his slider and tweaked the grip on his changeup as part of an overhauled approach in the pitching lab.

Between the repertoire adjustments and the dominance in a hitter-friendly KBO, Fedde secured the largest guarantee for a former affiliated pitcher returning from Korea. Each of Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen landed multi-year guarantees. Fedde is the first to cross the $10MM threshold, doing so rather handily.

The $7.5MM average annual value is a strong deal for the righty, although it could still turn out to be solid value for the Sox if Fedde can turn in league average results in the majors. Chicago is in desperate need of starting pitching. Dylan Cease had been the only pitcher on the roster who was clearly assured of a rotation spot and he’s widely expected to be traded. Fedde is almost certain to get a spot in the starting five, while Michael Kopech and trade pickup Michael Soroka have a decent chance at rotation roles. Jared Shuster, Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint are also in the mix.

That’s still a lackluster group, particularly if the Sox wind up moving Cease. First-year general manager Chris Getz and his front office are likely to continue searching for starting pitching. The specific breakdown of Fedde’s contract has yet to be reported. If it’s distributed evenly, a $7.5MM salary would bring the Sox’s projected payroll (courtesy of Roster Resource) around $144MM. Getz has already suggested they’re not planning to approach their franchise-record spending mark, which topped $193MM, but they’re still more than $35MM shy of this year’s approximate $181MM Opening Day figure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Draft Lottery, Fedde

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As the Winter Meetings carry on, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. The Winter Meetings continue

While plenty of updates and rumors came out of the Winter Meetings on Monday, we have still yet to see a major signing. However, with new reports that teams are interested in top-50 free agents Matt Chapman (Cubs), Jordan Hicks (Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, and Orioles), Seth Lugo (Braves, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox), and Jack Flaherty (Pirates), perhaps that’s about to change.

Wade Miley’s one-year, $8.5MM guarantee from the Brewers has been the largest free agent contract signed at the Winter Meetings so far, but that’s unlikely to remain the case for long.

2. The draft lottery is coming up

The MLB draft lottery will take place this afternoon at 4:30 pm CT as part of the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. All 18 teams that missed the postseason in 2023 will have a chance to win one of the top six selections in next year’s first-year player draft, although the teams with the three worst records – the Athletics, the Royals, and the Rockies – have the best odds of claiming one of the top picks.

Complete odds for the draft lottery can be found here.

3. Where will Erick Fedde land?

On Monday afternoon, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that former MLB pitcher and 2023 KBO MVP Erick Fedde was nearing a two-year deal with an unspecified MLB team. Later that day, Feinsand added that there were, in fact, two teams in the running for Fedde’s services – the Mets and the White Sox – and the 30-year-old righty was expected to finalize a contract with one of those two clubs as early as today.

Feinsand reports that the deal will be in the two-year, $10MM range, and if so, Fedde could surpass Wade Miley for the largest free agent guarantee of the Winter Meetings – although it’s hard to imagine he would hold that distinction for long.

White Sox, Mets Reportedly Finalists For Erick Fedde

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10:20pm: The Mets and White Sox appear to be the two finalists for Fedde’s services, Feinsand reports (on X). It is expected that the righty will agree to terms by tomorrow.

4:42pm: Free agent right-hander Erick Fedde is nearing agreement on a two-year deal with an unspecified team, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). The 2023 KBO MVP is expected to surpass $5MM annually on his upcoming contract.

If the deal is completed, Fedde will return to the majors after one season in South Korea. The 30-year-old turned in an excellent year for the NC Dinos, allowing 2.00 earned runs per nine across 180 1/3 innings. He struck out an excellent 29.5% of batters faced while walking under 5% of opposing hitters.

The 18th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Fedde had spent his entire MLB career with the Nationals. The UNLV product appeared on the back end of Top 100 prospect lists prior to his big league debut midway through the 2017 campaign. He missed time the following season with shoulder inflammation and bounced between Washington and Triple-A in 2019.

Fedde carved out a spot in the Nats rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. He’d hold that role for the next three seasons, combining to log 310 2/3 innings over 67 appearances between 2020-22. The results weren’t great, as he posted a 5.42 ERA with a middling 18.1% strikeout rate. The Nationals declined to tender him an arbitration contract last offseason, setting the stage for his move to the KBO.

The dominant showing in a generally hitter-friendly foreign league set the stage for a quick return to the majors. In addition to the improved performance, it seems he overhauled his pitch mix. Fedde told Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post in August that he’d developed more horizontal action on his slider and tweaked the grip on his changeup. That altered arsenal has clearly intrigued a few teams, as reports indicated Fedde was receiving interest from multiple MLB clubs this winter.

Free Agent Notes: Imanaga, Fedde, Barnes

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga was officially posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last month, kicking off a 45-day window during which he’ll be eligible to sign with major league clubs. While Imanaga only just officially joined the ranks of MLB’s free agents days ago, he’s long been expected to be posted this offseason. That’s allowed Imanaga’s free agency to develop considerable buzz in recent months.

While he’s largely been overshadowed by NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s widely considered the top starting pitcher on this offseason’s market, Imanaga is an impressive pitcher in his own right who is expected to be a potential mid-rotation arm in the big leagues with a low-nineties fastball as part of a deep pitch mix that Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions recently profiled. MLBTR ranked Imanaga tenth (sixth among starting pitchers) on our annual top 50 free agents list and projected him for a five year, $85MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that Imanaga’s market may be even stronger than expected, noting in a recent article that while teams were initially hopeful the southpaw could be had on a deal similar to the five-year, $75MM pact Kodai Senga landed last offseason, his final deal figures to exceed that, potentially to the point of approaching a $100MM guarantee.

Should Imanaga’s contract ultimately reach the $100MM range suggested by Passan, it would be a major win not only for Imanaga but also the BayStars. Imanaga’s free agency is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, under which the team that signs the left-hander would owe the BayStars a posting fee worth as much as 20% of Imanaga’s total guarantee, with the percentage going down as the price of Imanaga’s contract goes up. If Imanaga were to sign for $100MM guaranteed, the BayStars would receive approximately $16.9MM, or just over $2MM more than they would receive if Imanaga signed an $85MM deal in line with MLBTR’s projections. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Mets have all been connected to Imanaga so far this offseason, though it’s certainly possible more teams are involved in the bidding for the 30-year-old’s services.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Former Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde is among the most interesting free agents on the market this offseason after a dominant season with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports have indicated that Fedde, who sports a career 5.41 ERA across six seasons in the majors but altered his repertoire before dominating to the tune of a 2.00 ERA across 30 starts with the Dinos this year, has garnered interest from both the Dinos and MLB clubs. Su-eun Jeon of Baseball Korea (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO) adds additional clarity to those reports, noting that Fedde has received interest from two MLB teams and a team in Japan’s NPB in addition to the offer he’s received to return to the Dinos. While it’s possible that Fedde could look to return to stateside ball this offseason, it’s worth noting that no former big leaguer returning from the KBO has secured a guarantee of even $10MM in the majors. That could lead Fedde to bet on himself by either remaining with the Dinos in hopes of a similarly dominant season in 2024 to further bolster his case for a more significant pact, or even consider a move to Japan in order to face NPB’s stiffer competition.
  • Fedde isn’t the only American-born player of note who could look to return to the majors this offseason, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests left-hander Charlie Barnes is expected to garner MLB interest in free agency this offseason. Barnes, 28, was a fourth-round pick by the Twins in the 2017 draft and made nine appearances with the big league club in 2021. He struggled to a 5.92 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 38 innings of work for Minnesota across nine appearances. He’s spent the two years since then pitching for the KBO’s Lotte Giants, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 61 starts. Looking just at his 2023 season, Barnes struck out 20% of batters faced with a 3.28 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work. In addition to the aforementioned MLB interest, Morosi suggests that the Giants are expected to have strong interest in retaining Barnes, who served as the ace of their staff this season.

Erick Fedde Weighing Interest From KBO, MLB Clubs

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Former Nationals first-round pick and top prospect Erick Fedde just wrapped up a dominant season with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos, which saw the 30-year-old righty take home league MVP honors in his first season overseas. He’s unsurprisingly drawn MLB interest on the heels of that performance, but Fedde will have to weigh that interest against a considerable raise from his incumbent team. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports that Fedde has an offer in hand from the Dinos, which GM Sun-Nam Lim describes as the “best” possible offer his team can make “within the rules” of the KBO.

The KBO caps teams’ spending on foreign players, with first-year players able to earn a maximum of $1MM. Fedde earned that $1MM maximum in 2023. As Yoo further explains, KBO clubs are capped at $4MM to be divided among three foreign players. Each player they’re planning to re-sign for a subsequent season can increase that cap by $100K — up to a maximum of three players.

The maximum offer to Fedde, then, would be $4.1MM — although Lim did not expressly state such an offer has been made. Doing so would require forgoing other foreign signings entirely. It’s plenty feasible that Lim was suggesting they’ve offered what they feel is the most they can while still retaining enough pool space to sign two other foreign players on minimal commitments. Yonhap’s initial report indicates that the Dinos have offered Fedde “at least” one additional year; it’s plausible the team has put forth a multi-year deal, which could technically clock in at just over $4MM in AAV (again, if the Dinos are comfortable entirely forgoing other foreign additions). Near as we at MLBTR can recall, no KBO team has ever gone to such lengths to retain a foreign player. One source who has ample experience dealing with KBO clubs expressed serious doubt to MLBTR that a team would commit its whole pool to one player.

Fedde spoke with Yoo about the decisions he faces this winter, noting that it’s still early in the process and that he faces “so many unknowns” on the heels of leading the KBO in wins (20), strikeouts (209) and ERA (2.00). Fedde touted his faith in agent Scott Boras, voiced his appreciation for everything the Dinos have done for him, and suggested he’ll ultimately do what he feels is best for him and his family.

Fedde’s debut campaign in the KBO was nothing short of remarkable. He pitched 180 1/3 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, averaging six innings per outing along the way. He fanned 29.5% of his opponents against a 4.9% walk rate and recorded an enormous 70% ground-ball rate. KBO hitters don’t tend to focus on elevating the ball as much as their MLB counterparts, so it’s common to see larger ground-ball rates among pitchers there, but a 70% clip is nevertheless excellent.

Presumably, given the demand for starting pitching throughout MLB, Fedde will find guaranteed offers to return to the Majors. The former No. 18 overall pick climbed as high as No. 52 on Baseball America’s top-100 rankings prior to his MLB debut, so there’s certainly some track record and prospect pedigree that adds to his appeal for big league clubs.

Had he just enjoyed a strong season while following the same gameplan he did throughout his time in the Majors and in Triple-A, perhaps interest would be a bit more muted, with teams chalking up his success to facing lighter competition. That’s surely a factor, but Fedde also chatted with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post back in September about how he’s worked to change the shape of his breaking ball, change the release point on his heater, alter the grip on his changeup and adding a newly adopted sweeper to his repertoire. It’s a notable enough series of changes — particularly the incorporation of an entirely new offering — that Fedde will be viewed as a decidedly different pitcher than he was during his run with the Nats organization.

The extent to which teams are sold on the changes will obviously determine the strength of offers he’ll receive from MLB teams. In recent years, we’ve seen Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and Josh Lindblom parlay strong KBO showings into big league deals — Flexen after spending only one year in South Korea. We’ve not yet seen a former big league pitcher coming back from the KBO reach $10MM in guaranteed money, though Fedde’s performance was more dominant than Kelly and Flexen, and he’s three years younger than Lindblom (another former KBO MVP) was when he returned.

On the other hand, even if an MLB team is willing to offer something like two years and $10-12MM total, Fedde could also consider further betting on himself with another year leading the Dinos’ staff. If he were to repeat this performance or even show improvement, he could take home a healthy raise on this past year’s $1MM salary and then hit the open market next winter in search of a two-, three- or even four-year deal from an MLB club at a much heartier annual rate than is likely available to him right now.

It all boils down to a matter of risk tolerance for Fedde, who’ll have to weigh the options of maxing out on his earning power right now or taking a lesser 2024 contract in pursuit of a heftier deal next offseason. Regardless of which route he chooses, the mere fact that he’s in this position is a testament to the strength of his 2023 performance, which stands a clear-cut example of the earning upside players chase when taking their game overseas.

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