Erick Fedde

Former Nationals first-round pick and top prospect Erick Fedde just wrapped up a dominant season with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos, which saw the 30-year-old righty take home league MVP honors in his first season overseas. He’s unsurprisingly drawn MLB interest on the heels of that performance, but Fedde will have to weigh that interest against a considerable raise from his incumbent team. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports that Fedde has an offer in hand from the Dinos, which GM Sun-Nam Lim describes as the “best” possible offer his team can make “within the rules” of the KBO.

The KBO caps teams’ spending on foreign players, with first-year players able to earn a maximum of $1MM. Fedde earned that $1MM maximum in 2023. As Yoo further explains, KBO clubs are capped at $4MM to be divided among three foreign players. Each player they’re planning to re-sign for a subsequent season can increase that cap by $100K — up to a maximum of three players.

The maximum offer to Fedde, then, would be $4.1MM — although Lim did not expressly state such an offer has been made. Doing so would require forgoing other foreign signings entirely. It’s plenty feasible that Lim was suggesting they’ve offered what they feel is the most they can while still retaining enough pool space to sign two other foreign players on minimal commitments. Yonhap’s initial report indicates that the Dinos have offered Fedde “at least” one additional year; it’s plausible the team has put forth a multi-year deal, which could technically clock in at just over $4MM in AAV (again, if the Dinos are comfortable entirely forgoing other foreign additions). Near as we at MLBTR can recall, no KBO team has ever gone to such lengths to retain a foreign player. One source who has ample experience dealing with KBO clubs expressed serious doubt to MLBTR that a team would commit its whole pool to one player.

Fedde spoke with Yoo about the decisions he faces this winter, noting that it’s still early in the process and that he faces “so many unknowns” on the heels of leading the KBO in wins (20), strikeouts (209) and ERA (2.00). Fedde touted his faith in agent Scott Boras, voiced his appreciation for everything the Dinos have done for him, and suggested he’ll ultimately do what he feels is best for him and his family.

Fedde’s debut campaign in the KBO was nothing short of remarkable. He pitched 180 1/3 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, averaging six innings per outing along the way. He fanned 29.5% of his opponents against a 4.9% walk rate and recorded an enormous 70% ground-ball rate. KBO hitters don’t tend to focus on elevating the ball as much as their MLB counterparts, so it’s common to see larger ground-ball rates among pitchers there, but a 70% clip is nevertheless excellent.

Presumably, given the demand for starting pitching throughout MLB, Fedde will find guaranteed offers to return to the Majors. The former No. 18 overall pick climbed as high as No. 52 on Baseball America’s top-100 rankings prior to his MLB debut, so there’s certainly some track record and prospect pedigree that adds to his appeal for big league clubs.

Had he just enjoyed a strong season while following the same gameplan he did throughout his time in the Majors and in Triple-A, perhaps interest would be a bit more muted, with teams chalking up his success to facing lighter competition. That’s surely a factor, but Fedde also chatted with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post back in September about how he’s worked to change the shape of his breaking ball, change the release point on his heater, alter the grip on his changeup and adding a newly adopted sweeper to his repertoire. It’s a notable enough series of changes — particularly the incorporation of an entirely new offering — that Fedde will be viewed as a decidedly different pitcher than he was during his run with the Nats organization.

The extent to which teams are sold on the changes will obviously determine the strength of offers he’ll receive from MLB teams. In recent years, we’ve seen Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and Josh Lindblom parlay strong KBO showings into big league deals — Flexen after spending only one year in South Korea. We’ve not yet seen a former big league pitcher coming back from the KBO reach $10MM in guaranteed money, though Fedde’s performance was more dominant than Kelly and Flexen, and he’s three years younger than Lindblom (another former KBO MVP) was when he returned.

On the other hand, even if an MLB team is willing to offer something like two years and $10-12MM total, Fedde could also consider further betting on himself with another year leading the Dinos’ staff. If he were to repeat this performance or even show improvement, he could take home a healthy raise on this past year’s $1MM salary and then hit the open market next winter in search of a two-, three- or even four-year deal from an MLB club at a much heartier annual rate than is likely available to him right now.

It all boils down to a matter of risk tolerance for Fedde, who’ll have to weigh the options of maxing out on his earning power right now or taking a lesser 2024 contract in pursuit of a heftier deal next offseason. Regardless of which route he chooses, the mere fact that he’s in this position is a testament to the strength of his 2023 performance, which stands a clear-cut example of the earning upside players chase when taking their game overseas.

Right-hander Erick Fedde is drawing interest from major league clubs after spending 2023 with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Fedde, 31 in February, was once a highly-touted prospect, with the Nationals selecting him 18th overall in the 2014 draft. But he didn’t find much success in the big leagues, making 102 appearances for the Nats from 2017 to 2022 with a 5.41 earned run average.

As mentioned, he joined the Dinos for this past year and the move to Korea could hardly have gone better for him. He threw 180 1/3 innings over his 30 starts with his ERA finishing at an even 2.00. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking just 4.9% and also kept the ball on the ground at an incredible 70% clip. For reference, the MLB ground ball rate was 42.5% in 2023. The overall results were strong enough for him to win the Choi Dong-won award, which is given to the best starting pitcher in the league each year, making it roughly the KBO equivalent of the Cy Young.

That figures to make Fedde an interesting wild card entry into the free agent pitching market this offseason, with MLBTR having given him an honorable mention in our recent Top 50 Free Agents post. The results for North American pitchers returning from a stint in Korea are mixed, with some recent examples ranging from Merrill Kelly to Chris Flexen to Josh Lindblom. Kelly has made 127 starts for the Diamondbacks over the past five years with a 3.80 ERA. Lindblom had great results in Korea but posted a 6.39 ERA in his 20 appearances for the Brewers. Flexen had a 3.66 ERA for the Mariners over 2021 and 2022 but was torched for an ERA of 6.86 in 2023.

Each pitcher is unique and precedent can only tell us so much about Fedde as an individual. Given his excellent 2023 campaign and status as a former top prospect, he should garner plenty of interest, particularly from the clubs priced out of the top of the market. Pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery seem positioned for nine-figure guarantees while sizeable eight-figure deals should be attainable by guys like Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga.

Kelly got a two-year, $5.5MM deal from Arizona going into 2019. A year later, Lindblom got $9.125MM plus incentives over three years from the Brewers. Flexen got $4.75MM over two years from the Mariners prior to 2021, plus a vesting option for 2023. Fedde may be able to top those figures through a combination of his superb season, his former prospect pedigree and inflation, but the guarantee still figures to be lighter than the top available arms.