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Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.

Tigers, Guardians Interested In Erick Fedde, Steven Matz

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As reported by John Denton, Mark Feinsand, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, the Tigers and Guardians have both expressed interest in trading for Cardinals starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. Both pitchers seemed to be likely trade candidates entering the offseason, but this is the first report to link either pitcher to specific suitors.

As the Cardinals look to shed payroll and kickstart a retooling effort, just about all of their veteran players look like possible trade chips. Nolan Arenado has generated much of the buzz so far, but his contract isn’t the only one St. Louis could look to offload. After Arenado, the next highest-paid players on the roster are Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras. However, all three have no-trade clauses in their contracts, and all three have expressed a desire to stay in St. Louis. Thus, Matz and Fedde could be the next players who president of baseball operations John Mozeliak looks to flip. Those trades wouldn’t come with quite as much salary relief – Matz will make $12.5MM and Fedde will make $7.5MM in 2025 – but they might be easier to pull off. Not only is less money involved, but neither Matz nor Fedde has the right to reject a trade.

Any trade involving Matz would likely be a salary dump. In other words, the Cardinals should not expect to get any notable players back in return. As he enters his age-34 campaign, Matz is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. In 12 games (seven starts), he pitched to a 5.08 ERA and 4.63 SIERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the lowest it’s ever been. To make matters worse, he missed four months of the year nursing a lower back strain.

While Matz has been a productive starting pitcher in the not-so-distant past, he has struggled with injuries and inconsistency throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in every season since his rookie year and has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. His 3.86 ERA and 4.19 SIERA over 105 innings in 2023 are a reminder that he can be a valuable contributor to a big league rotation. Yet, as Matz enters his mid-thirties, concerns about his durability and potential decline will only increase. All that to say, his $12.5MM salary is probably more than he could command on the open market. If the Cardinals want another team to take on that salary, they won’t be able to ask for much in return.

As for Fedde, the Cardinals wouldn’t get as much salary relief in a trade, but they could bring back some talent to help in 2025 and beyond. Although Fedde has had injury and inconsistency problems of his own, he is two years younger than Matz and coming off of two consecutive strong seasons. He also comes $5MM cheaper.

Fedde was little more than an innings eater for the Nationals from 2017-22. However, he reinvented himself in the KBO in 2023, winning the MVP Award and signing a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox last winter. While he wasn’t an MVP-caliber player in 2024, he produced what was easily the best season of his MLB career, pitching 177 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 4.19 SIERA. He didn’t excel in any one area, but he limited walks and hard contact at better-than-average rates and tossed at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. If he repeats that performance in 2025, he’d be an upgrade for just about every contending team’s starting rotation.

As far as contending teams go, Cleveland and Detroit have two of the weaker rotations. With Shane Bieber still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Guardians only have three locks for the rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively. The Tigers are in a similar position with several question marks after Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Alex Cobb. With that said, it’s still surprising to see these two teams linked to Fedde and Matz. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported during the Winter Meetings that the Tigers were not “planning to pursue additional starting pitchers” after signing Cobb. He quotes general manager Jeff Greenberg, who said “I think we’re probably done for now.”

As for the Guardians, it’s a question of money as usual. It’s especially rare to see this team spend significant money on pitching because they have done such a good job of developing talented arms internally. Thus, Matz, in particular, seems to be an unexpected target; he would become the highest-paid pitcher on the roster. However, a deal with Cleveland could make more sense if St. Louis is willing to eat some salary to receive a more talented return package.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Were the prospect prices high in this year’s trades? Is this a new normal due to the expanded playoffs creating a seller’s market? (2:15)
  • The three-team trade involving the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Erick Fedde, Miguel Vargas and others (15:40)
  • The Rays and Cubs, the buy-sell tightrope and the trade involving Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel (29:30)
  • The Astros acquire Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays for a three-player package and the connection to the the Dodgers acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers but the Yankees reportedly being scared off by his medicals (48:00)
  • The Guardians acquire Alex Cobb from the Giants and acquire Lane Thomas from the Nationals (58:35)
  • The Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Marlins and acquire Zach Eflin from the Rays (1:09:10)
  • Will teams have to be more aggressive in the offseason going forward if the expanded playoffs will make less good players available at the deadline? (1:20:35)
  • The Rockies and Angels held onto a lot of trade candidates (1:23:35)
  • The Marlins leaned in hard to seller status (1:31:40)
  • The Padres built a super bullpen (1:44:50)
  • The Braves acquire Jorge Soler from the Giants (1:47:40)
  • The Royals acquire Lucas Erceg from the Athletics (1:54:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
  • Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
  • Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals Acquire Fedde, Pham; Dodgers Acquire Edman, Kopech In Three-Team Deal With White Sox

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What’s a trade deadline without a convoluted three-team swap? The Cardinals, White Sox and Dodgers have announced a three-team, eight-player deal (possibly including up to 10 players) that breaks down as follows:

It’s a massive exchange of veteran names that’ll have significant postseason implications for a pair of National League contenders. The Cardinals, in need of rotation help and a right-handed bat, checked two boxes with today’s swap, while the Dodgers added some needed positional versatility to help cover multiple weak spots in the lineup and a hard-throwing reliever with an extra season of club control.

Starting with the Cardinals, they’ll bolster their starting staff not just this season but also in 2025. Fedde, a former first-round pick and top prospect with the Nationals, flamed out in five seasons here in MLB before heading to the KBO’s NC Dinos for one year. He spent the 2023 season in South Korea, added a splitter and changed the shape of his breaking ball, and dominated KBO opponents en route to an MVP Award. He returned to MLB on a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox and has immediately established himself as a new and highly improved pitcher.

In 121 2/3 innings for the ChiSox, Fedde has pitched to a sharp 3.11 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate is shy of league-average by one percentage point, but his 6.8% walk rate is strong and his 44.7% grounder rate is also a bit better than average. He’s avoided hard contact (88.1 mph average exit velocity, 36% hard-hit rate) and kept opponents off balance with a four-pitch mix including a cutter, sinker, slider and split-changeup.

Fedde solidifies the back of a veteran Cardinals rotation that has been without lefty Steven Matz (back strain) since late April. The Cards have been relying on righty Andre Pallante to help patch things over, and while he’s been a godsend in that role (3.42 ERA in nine starts), the 25-year-old is also already just four innings shy of his 2023 total and can be a vital piece in the bullpen as well.

The addition of Fedde will prove vital for a Cardinals club that only had three starters signed through the 2025 season as well. Sonny Gray is being paid $25MM annually from 2024-26, while Miles Mikolas is owed $20MM next year. Matz will be in the fourth and final season of his own $44MM contract next year, but his ongoing health troubles make it tough to bank on him. The Cardinals hold club options over veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, but neither is a lock to be picked up. Fedde, owed $7.5MM this year and next, gives the Cardinals some long-term stability at a highly affordable rate.

In addition to their desired rotation upgrade, the Cards will get the right-handed bat they’ve been seeking. It’ll come in the form of a reunion with Pham, whom they originally selected in the 16th round of the 2006 draft. Pham made his big league debut with the 2014 Cardinals and spent the next three-plus seasons in St. Louis before being traded to the Rays in a deal that brought Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams back to the Cardinals.

Pham, now 36, has since played for six additional teams. The Rays traded him Padres after two seasons, and he’s since signed free-agent deals with the Reds, Mets and White Sox — getting traded at the deadline in three consecutive seasons. Pham has remained productive at the plate even as he’s become a year-to-year mercenary in his mid-30s. He slashed .256/.328/.446 between the Mets and D-backs in 2023 and owns a .266/.330/.380 output in 297 plate appearances with the White Sox.

Pham won’t receive everyday at-bats in his return to Busch Stadium, but Pham’s hefty .255/.377/.471 line against lefties will make him a useful part-time player for manager Oli Marmol. He’ll make for a nice platoon partner for glove-first center fielder Michael Siani (with Pham presumably taking over in left field and Lars Nootbaar manning center against southpaws).

In order to open a 40-man roster spot, the Cardinals designated catcher Nick Raposo for assignment. The 26-year-old signed with the Cards as an undrafted free agent after the truncated five-round draft in 2020. He was selected to the MLB roster earlier this summer to help account for some catching injuries, but he didn’t get into a big league game. He’s hitting .193/.251/.349 in Triple-A this season but turned in a more encouraging .241/.321/.386 slash last year between Double-A and Triple-A. The Cards could trade him before tomorrow’s deadline, and if not, he’ll be placed on outright waivers.

That the Cardinals were able to acquire both Fedde and Pham while only surrendering Edman and a 17-year-old they just signed as an international free agent earlier this year is somewhat remarkable. It’s a nice feather in the cap of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, general manager Mike Girsch and the rest of the St. Louis baseball ops staff. The Cards added two big league contributors to a contending club and did so not only without sacrificing any prospects — but without sacrificing anyone who’s contributed to their second-place team at any point this season.

That’s not to denigrate Edman as a player, of course — far from it. The switch-hitting 29-year-old is as versatile as he is talented when healthy, and he’ll presumably be healthy enough to join the Dodgers in short order. Edman hasn’t played this season due to a longer-than-expected recovery process from offseason wrist surgery and an ankle sprain he suffered while rehabbing that wrist. Edman has played four games with the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate on a minor league rehab assignment and figures to now continue his rehab work in the Dodgers’ system. He’ll have about two more weeks of rehab window before he needs to be activated, though Los Angeles can certainly do so sooner if they see fit.

Edman has spent four-plus seasons in the big leagues, playing second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. He rather incredibly grades out as an above-average defender at each of those positions, per Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved alike. That jack-of-all-trades skill set is emblematic of the type of player the Dodgers try to roster as often as possible. Edman, once healthy, will give L.A. an option at shortstop or second base, helping to cover for the loss of Mookie Betts. Once Betts returns, Edman can either play shortstop (with Betts moving to second base), second base (with Betts at short and Miguel Rojas in a utility role) or anywhere in the outfield (with Rojas and Betts handling middle infield duties).

Beyond the defensive wizardry, Edman has proven himself a capable hitter. He’s yet to recreate the terrific .304/.350/.500 line he posted as a Cardinals rookie in 2019, but he’s a career .265/.319/.408 hitter in 2425 plate appearances. He’s not a big home run threat but has hit between 11 and 13 homers in all four of his full big league seasons (plus five homers in the shortened 2020 campaign). He doesn’t walk especially often (6.2%) but also rarely strikes out (16.5%). On top of that, Edman offers 88th percentile sprint speed (per Statcast) and has swiped 106 bags in 123 attempts at the MLB level (86.2%).

Edman signed a two-year, $16.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason, buying out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He’s earning $7MM this season and another $9.5MM next year. The Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender in the top tier of penalization, so they’ll pay a 110% tax on the average annual value both of Edman’s contract and of Kopech’s one-year deal with the club.

Onto Kopech, the 28-year-old former top prospect gives the Dodgers one of baseball’s hardest-throwing relievers for the remainder of this year and all of 2025. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and owed a raise on this year’s modest $3MM salary.

The White Sox have used Kopech both as a starter and reliever, but lackluster command of his dynamic arsenal has undercut his effectiveness in both roles. He’s been used exclusively out of the ’pen in 2024 and saved nine games while pitching 43 2/3 innings of 4.74 ERA ball. The earned run average isn’t going to draw much fanfare, but Kopech has averaged a blistering 98.5 mph on his four-seamer, fanned 30.9% of his opponents and generated a gaudy 14.1% swinging-strike rate. He’s been plagued by a 12.6% walk rate and 1.65 HR/9, but Kopech has shown flashes of potential as a powerhouse, shutdown reliever.

Kopech is currently in the midst of his best stretch of the season. After getting blown up for four runs back on July 7, he’s rattled off 5 2/3 shutout innings with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers, who have a knack for maximizing pitching performances, are surely thrilled to get their hands on a pitcher with Kopech’s blazing heater and hard slider. Whether they can coax the level of performance from him that has long seemed dormant in Kopech’s talented but inconsistent right arm remains an open question, but if they’re able to do so, he’s a high-octane weapon who can take on a leverage role in a bullpen that has seen closer Evan Phillips struggle of late.

Los Angeles will also pick up the 17-year-old Gonzalez, who’s not considered to be among the Cardinals’ top-ranked prospects but did command a relatively notable $400K signing bonus out of Panama just seven months ago. The 6’4″, 200-pound righty has pitched 21 1/3 innings for the Cardinals’ Rookie-level Dominican Summer League affiliate and posted a 4.22 ERA while punching out 28.6% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate.

Turning to the rebuilding White Sox’ end of the deal, their return is headlined by Vargas, who’ll presumably step right onto the big league roster. The 24-year-old ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season but has fallen down the depth chart in Los Angeles after struggling to carry his excellent minor league production over to the majors. Vargas has appeared in 129 big league games and taken 434 plate appearances, but he’s a .201/.294/.364 hitter in that time.

Rough as those numbers are, Vargas has continued to absolutely pummel Triple-A pitching this season. He’s hitting .290/.440/.556 in Oklahoma City and has a career .297/.412/.512 batting line there in 996 plate appearances. He’s played third base, second base, first base and left field in his career, with the bulk of his experience coming at third base and second base. Vargas has regularly been blocked by more veteran, more expensive players at those positions but should get a full run at third base or second base with his new team.

Some Sox fans may bristle at the notion of a former top prospect headlining this deal, rather than a current one, but Vargas still has five seasons of club control remaining and has already gotten his feet wet in the majors. He’s an on-base machine who’s walked at an impressive 11.1% clip even while struggling in the big leagues and has fanned in a below-average 20.7% of his MLB plate appearances. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where he improves on both of those rate stats as he gets more big league experience and begins to solidify himself as a bona fide MLB-caliber hitter.

Joining Vargas in the White Sox’ system will be Albertus and Perez: both 19-year-old infielders who signed with the Dodgers as international free agents in 2022 (Albertus out of Aruba, Perez out of the Dominican Republic). Baseball America ranked both players inside the Dodgers’ top-20 prospects heading into the 2024 season, and both currently reside in that same range on MLB.com’s updated list of the top 30 Dodgers prospects.

Albertus has split the season between the Dodgers’ Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate and Class-A affiliate. He tore through the former at a .342/.479/.459 pace with more walks (18.9%) than strikeouts (14%) and is hitting .229/.317/.329 in 82 plate appearances against more advanced pitching. Baseball America credits him with a plus hit tool and the potential for average power, calling him a bat-first infield prospect who could see regular playing time across multiple positions. MLB.com lauds him for having one of the most disciplined approaches in a deep Dodgers system and calls him a potential regular at second or third.

Perez has spent the entire season in Class-A and carries a hearty .264/.380/.420 batting line with 10 homers in 350 trips to the plate. He’s walked at a huge 13.7% clip against a 22% strikeout rate despite being just over two years younger than the average player in the league. Both BA and MLB.com note that he lacks a true plus tool but is solid across the board. Like Albertus, he draws praise for an advanced approach at the plate that’s well beyond his years. Perez has good contact skills and the ability to play multiple positions.

For a White Sox club that is often characterized by low-OBP, all-or-nothing hitters, the focus on bringing in three infielders with huge on-base ceilings feels like a rather targeted focus. None of the three players are going to jump to immediately land among the top 50 prospects in the game — Vargas isn’t even prospect-eligible anymore — but they all have a relatively similar feel and offer a potential glimpse at the type of hitters that rookie GM Chris Getz would prefer to see populating his roster in future seasons.

KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander reported Sunday night that the Sox, Dodgers and Cards had engaged in some level of discussions on a three-team deal involving Fedde and Edman. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reported Monday that a three-team deal was nearing the finish line. Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that Fedde would go to the Cardinals and Edman to the Dodgers. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that Vargas, Perez and Albertus were headed to the White Sox. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Pham was going to the Cardinals. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals were giving up an low-level minor leaguer.

Latest On Cardinals’ Interest In Erick Fedde

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White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde has been connected to plenty of teams in the run-up to this summer’s trade deadline, including the Brewers and Astros, but no team has been more frequently connected to the right-hander than the Cardinals. The club’s “strong interest” in the 2023 KBO MVP’s services was reported last week, and since then multiple reports have connected Fedde to St. Louis as the Cards scour the market for an affordable starting pitching option to bolster their current rotation of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante.

The fit between St. Louis and Fedde is a fairly obvious one given the club’s uncertain rotation situation headed into 2025 and Fedde’s additional year of team control after 2024. Even setting the contractual fit aside, the right-hander sports a strong 3.11 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 21 starts with Chicago this year. If Fedde were in the St. Louis rotation with those numbers, he’d have the lowest ERA by more than half a run and the second-lowest FIP behind only Sonny Gray’s sterling 2.85 figure. With the Cardinals just one game back of a Wild Card spot and six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, the addition of Fedde would not only help them as they look to return to the postseason after a last place finish in their division last year but would also give the club a solid front-of-the-rotation arm to start alongside Gray in a potential Wild Card series.

Clear as the fit between the Cardinals and Fedde may be, there appear to be some hurdles preventing a deal from coming together for the time being. With so many potential suitors for his services, the White Sox appear to have set a hefty asking price in trade for the 31-year-old. According to SoxMachine’s James Fegan, the South Siders have “at least tried” to include young outfielder Jordan Walker in trade talks with the Cardinals regarding Fedde. St. Louis’s first-round pick in the 2020 draft, Walker was a consensus top-5 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 campaign but has struggled somewhat at the big league level so far.

The youngster hit a solid but unspectacular .276/.342/.445 in his rookie season last year and was optioned back to the minor leagues back in April after an abysmal .155/.239/.259 showing in his first 20 games this season. Since returning to Triple-A, Walker has continued to struggle as he’s hit just .237/.305/.372 in 295 trips to the plate at the level this year. Despite those deep struggles, however, Walker is still just one season removed from being an above-average hitter in the big leagues, won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season, and is still very young at just 22 years old. That’s an incredibly steep price to pay for one-plus years of a starting pitcher, even one as talented as Fedde.

Given there’s no indication that the Cardinals have been at all receptive to including Walker in a Fedde deal, it seems as though the sides may be facing a gap in trade talks. Even if that’s the case, though, that doesn’t necessarily mean a deal sending Fedde to St. Louis couldn’t eventually come together. As noted by Ari Alexander of KPRC-2, the White Sox and Cardinals have “discussed” the potential framework of a three-team trade that would also involve the Dodgers. Los Angeles is known to have interest in Cardinals switch-hitting utilityman Tommy Edman, and The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported earlier today that St. Louis is hoping to acquire cost-controlled starting pitching in return for Edman.

That would make a hypothetical three-team trade in which the Cardinals acquire Fedde from the White Sox while giving up Edman to the Dodgers seemingly reasonable framework, although it’s unclear whether the Cardinals would have to part with more pieces than just Edman to make the deal work, nor is it clear which pieces the Dodgers would ship to Chicago to complete their end of the bargain. Speculatively speaking, if the White Sox were interested in acquiring Walker as the centerpiece of a deal for Fedde, the Dodgers could dangle a young hitter of their own such as James Outman or Miguel Vargas as a centerpiece for their part of the trade.

Alexander reports that no deal between the sides is in place as things stand, but the discussions seem to confirm a willingness to get creative on the part of all sides as the Cardinals continue their pursuit of pitching upgrades while the Dodgers look to lengthen a lineup that has lost key pieces like Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and Miguel Rojas to injury, leaving them with well below average production in the back half of their lineup.

Brewers Interested In Erick Fedde

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The Brewers are in contact with the White Sox regarding starter Erick Fedde, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Cardinals are also known to be involved on Fedde, while he’s one of a number of pitchers in whom the Astros have reportedly shown interest. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets have also checked in with the Sox on Fedde, though it’s not clear how seriously they’re pursuing him.

Fedde is one of the top targets for teams seeking mid-rotation help. The righty enters tonight’s start against the Mariners with 117 2/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball. He’s running average or better strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks. His .261 average on balls in play will probably come up a bit and push his ERA above 3.00, but the former National looks like a #3 caliber starter.

The Sox signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal after an MVP season in Korea. That was one of the best value pickups of the offseason and should net them a strong prospect return. Fedde is making $7.5MM in each season. Less than $2.6MM remains to be paid, so he’s appealing both to lower-payroll clubs and those that have luxury tax concerns. The Brewers, of course, fit in the former category.

Milwaukee already acquired a back-end starter this month, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. Fedde is a cleaner fit to start a postseason game, though. Even with Civale in the fold, Milwaukee is running something of a patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta. While they’ve gotten good work from journeyman Colin Rea and 26-year-old rookie Tobias Myers, Milwaukee could certainly accommodate another starter.

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweeted yesterday that the Brewers were open to the possibility of trading from their big league roster. The Sox are near the bottom of a rebuild and won’t be competitive for multiple seasons. That frees them up to take upside shots on low minors talent, but they could also take a flier on a controllable big leaguer who isn’t playing a significant role. Milwaukee has a lot of outfield talent. FanSided’s Robert Murray wrote yesterday that 25-year-old Garrett Mitchell has come up in some of the Brewers’ trade discussions.

Murray did not report that the Brewers have discussed Mitchell with the White Sox specifically or that Chicago would have interest in him as part of a Fedde deal, to be clear. Speculatively speaking, taking a shot on a player with Mitchell’s physical tools could be intriguing for the White Sox. (That’s also true of Joey Wiemer, a former top prospect who hasn’t produced in the majors but is only 25 himself.) Chicago made a similar roll of the dice in an offseason trade with the D-Backs for Dominic Fletcher.

The Mets weren’t expected to be in the rotation market. As recently as a couple weeks ago, New York was contemplating trading away a starter. That was based on their optimism in Kodai Senga returning from the injured list and Christian Scott coming back from the minors. Instead, Scott suffered a UCL sprain and Senga is likely to miss the rest of the season after straining his calf last night.

That could make the Mets a surprising bidder for rotation help. The Athletic’s Will Sammon indeed writes that New York is likely to at least explore the market. The Mets were reportedly the runner-up for Fedde in free agency last winter, so they were optimistic about the pitcher even before his successful return to the majors.

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Report: Cardinals Have “Strong Interest” In Erick Fedde

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The Cardinals have “strong interest” in White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning. Fedde is among a number of controllable pieces that the White Sox have made available this summer, alongside breakout left-hander Garrett Crochet and star center fielder Luis Robert Jr.

Fedde, 31, lacks the star power of either Crochet or Robert but is nonetheless one of the most attractive pieces expected to be available this summer. The former first-round pick was a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball in the late 2010’s but generally struggled at the big league level after debuting with the Nationals back in 2017. In parts of six season with the club, Fedde posted a lackluster 5.41 ERA in 102 appearances, including 88 starts. Those struggles led Fedde to depart affiliate ball to pitch in the Korea Baseball Organization last year, and the stint overseas hardly could’ve gone better for the righty. In an MVP campaign for the NC Dinos, Fedde posted a sterling 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts while striking out 29.5% of batters faced.

The righty’s success overseas earned him renewed stateside interest this past winter, and the White Sox ultimately pounced by offering him a two-year, $15MM guarantee. The deal has gone about as well as anyone could’ve have hoped so far. Through 19 starts this season, Fedde appears to be an entirely different pitcher than he was in his days with the Nationals. His 21.6% strikeout rate is a near-match for his career-best mark from 2021, and his 6.6% walk rate is by far the lowest of his MLB career. After allowing a whopping 18.1% of his fly balls to the leave the yard for home runs during his time with the Nationals, Fedde has greatly improved in that regard this year as well with just 9.2% of his fly balls ending up in the stands so far. In all, that’s left Fedde with an excellent 2.99 ERA (138 ERA+) and a solid 3.53 FIP (82 FIP-) in 111 1/3 innings of work this season.

That sort of production would be welcome in virtually any contender’s rotation, and it’s surely all the more enticing for clubs that Fedde is under control for the 2025 season at a bargain $7.5MM price tag as well. That combination of low financial cost, team control, and production makes Fedde a strong candidate for virtually any pitching-hungry team in the league, so it’s easy to see why the Cardinals would have interest in the right-hander’s services.

Injury woes have kept veteran lefty Steven Matz out of action since late April, forcing the Cardinals to rely on pieces like Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore to fill out the rotation behind Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson. Even that front quartet has yielded mix results, with Gray and Gibson’s solid numbers being offset by the struggles of Lynn and Mikolas. Altogether, Cardinals starters this season have delivered a lackluster 4.43 ERA that ranks in the bottom ten among all major league clubs.

Despite those woes in the rotation, St. Louis has surged since an early-season slump and is currently sitting at a 52-47 record that places them firmly in the NL Wild Card picture and just five games back of the Brewers for the NL Central crown. The addition of a quality, playoff-caliber starter to their rotation would be a huge boost not only for their chances of making it into the postseason, but also for their odds in a potential Wild Card series, where Fedde could pair with Gray to make an impressive front two that could go toe-to-toe with most contenders in the NL. What’s more, Fedde’s additional year of team control could make him a particularly attractive option for a club that currently boasts 33-year-old Matz as the youngest arm in the rotation, and could stand to lose both Gibson and Lynn to free agency this winter if the club declines their club options on the veteran duo.

White Sox Open To Offers On Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet

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The White Sox are baseball’s worst team by a long shot and seemed to acknowledge that likelihood even before the season began when they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres in spring training. San Diego is already reportedly interested in yet another Sox pitcher, lefty Garrett Crochet, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Sox are open to offers not only on Crochet but on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Passan categorizes the ChiSox as “open for business” and lists Robert, Crochet, Erick Fedde and virtually all of the team’s short-term veterans as players who could be moved between now and the trade deadline.

Fedde, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mike Clevinger, John Brebbia, Tim Hill and other players who aren’t signed long-term — Fedde is signed through next season, the others are all free agents this winter — all stood as obvious trade candidates to begin with. I wrote about Fedde’s trade candidacy for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. DeJong recently said on 670 The Score in Chicago that he and Pham both fully expect to be traded. That anyone from that group is viewed as likely to change hands is only logical.

Names like Robert and Crochet being available is far less certain, even for a rebuilding club like the Sox, given the amount of club control each has remaining. In Robert’s case, he’s signed through the 2027 season in the form of a $12.5MM salary this season, a $15MM salary in 2025 and a pair of club options valued at $20MM apiece (both with a $2MM buyout). Crochet entered the 2024 campaign with three years of big league service, meaning he’s in his first arbitration season and has another pair of seasons of club control beyond 2024.

It bears emphasizing that the Sox being “open” to offers or “willing to trade” either player is far different from the team actively shopping said players. That open-minded approach is also far from a guarantee that either will be moved. The substantial control remaining beyond the current season means Chicago GM Chris Getz will set an enormous asking price on both players, and both will still retain tremendous trade value into the offseason and even into next year’s deadline if a deal doesn’t come together this summer.

Robert, still just 26 years old, returned from the injured list yesterday after an absence of nearly two months. He suffered a Grade 2 strain of his hip flexor early in the season and was sidelined for the bulk of April and the entirety of May. He wasted little time in reminding the type of impact he brings to a game, going 2-for-4 with a homer in his return effort. The Cuban-born five-tool standout has played in only eight games and taken just 33 plate appearances this season but carries a .250/.273/.594 batting line with three homers.

Last year saw Robert take his always tantalizing game to new heights. The dynamic center fielder stayed healthy for a career-high 145 games and posted a stout .264/.315/.542 batting line with a career-high 38 home runs, 36 doubles, a triple and 20 stolen bases (in 24 tries). Robert ranked in the 84th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast, and was among the league leaders in barrel rate. He’s a premium outfield defender with plus range and an above-average arm — evidenced both by gaudy Statcast percentile rankings and by career marks of +13 Defensive Runs Saved and +24 Outs Above Average in 3116 innings of work.

Durability and an over-aggressive approach at the plate are the primary knocks on Robert, who is two months into his fifth MLB season and already has five career IL placements for injury (plus another shorter stay on the Covid-related injured list). Robert played in 56 of 60  games during his rookie showing in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but he logged just 68 and 98 games in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and he could finish the 2024 season with fewer than 100 games played as well, thanks to one already lengthy absence. He’s now had significant strains of his left and right hip flexors, in addition to an MCL sprain and a wrist strain in his career.

In terms of Robert’s approach at the plate, the results are strong so it’s hard to be too critical. But Robert rarely walks (career 5.3%) and chases pitches off the plate more than nearly any player in the sport. Since his 2020 debut, only Salvador Perez, Harold Ramirez and Javier Baez swing at more balls out of the strike zone than Robert’s massive 46.3% (at least among qualified hitters). His 54.6% contact rate on such swings is well below average, and his career 83.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple points south of par. It hasn’t led to an exorbitant strikeout rate just yet — Robert has fanned in 25.5% of his career plate appearances — but it’s a less-than-ideal trend that could worsen if Robert loses what Statcast currently measures as elite bat speed (seventh fastest in the majors, on average).

There’s little precedent for a player of this quality with this level of affordability and team control being traded. Robert is owed just under $8MM through season’s end as of this writing plus another $45MM over the next three seasons. Three-and-a-half years of an MVP-caliber talent at a maximum rate of $63MM is a raucous bargain by today’s contractual standards. Teams may be wary of Robert’s injury history and free-swinging ways, but he’s signed for the remainder of his 20s and would be a legitimately franchise-altering deadline acquisition if a team can put together an impressive enough trade offer. Robert might not quite command the type of haul the Padres sent to the Nats for Juan Soto a couple years back, but he’s closer to that level of value than the standard deadline trade candidates. Getz alluded to as much in the offseason, calling Robert “one of the best players in baseball” and noting that he was a “difficult player to trade.”

There are similarities, in terms of trade value, when it comes to Crochet. It’s rare to see a high-end pitcher with two and a half seasons of club control traded at the deadline. Crochet is extra appealing given that his injuries and former role in the bullpen have tamped down his first-year arbitration price. He’s being paid only $800K this season. He’ll be due a pair of notable raises in each of the next two offseasons but still isn’t likely to command even $15MM in salary over those two years.

The 24-year-old Crochet’s transition from reliever to starter hit a brief snag with a trio of rough outings in mid-April, but he’s on an absolute tear right now and looks the part of a frontline starter, as one might expect for a former first-round talent who has long been touted to have ace upside. In 13 starts, Crochet is sitting on a 3.49 earned run average with vastly better fielding-independent marks (2.87 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). That’s due largely to his elite strikeout and walk numbers; Crochet has punched out 33.7% of his opponents against just a 5.4% walk rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average 45.9% clip and averaging a blazing 96.9 mph on his heater.

Since that set of consecutive rough outings in April, Crochet has been on another planet. Arguably baseball’s best pitcher in that time, he’s logged a 1.35 ERA with a 53-to-7 K/BB ratio over his past 40 innings. Crochet allowed five, seven and five earned runs in his run of three straight rocky April outings. He’s yielded two or fewer runs in each of his ten other starts this season.

Rival clubs might be wary of how well he’ll hold up over the course of a full season in the rotation. It’s a fair qualm, as Crochet pitched just 25 innings last season and didn’t pitch at all in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year’s 69 2/3 innings are already a new career-high for the lefty, who entered 2024 with only 85 1/3 professional innings total (majors and minors combined). That said, even if there are concerns about Crochet fading down the stretch, there’s considerable long-term upside, as one would imagine the effects of a full starter’s workload will be more normalized for him in 2025 and 2026. If he wears down later this year, he’s also quite familiar with pitching in short relief.

Any trepidation about how he’ll hold up this year hasn’t stopped the Padres from reaching out to the White Sox. They’ve reportedly inquired on the lefty and have strong interest in him, which makes sense given not only Crochet’s dominance and San Diego’s need for arms, but also his minimal salary and the Friars’ relative proximity to the luxury tax barrier. Adding one of the game’s most dominant pitchers while barely even advancing your luxury tax line ought to hold overwhelming appeal for the majority of the team’s highest-spending clubs. At the same time, Crochet’s minimal salary also makes him appealing to small-market clubs with payroll concerns. Short of the innings worries, he’s an ideal trade target.

Because of that, the asking price on Crochet figures to be extreme, just as it will be with Robert. If Getz and his team genuinely make both available and play some bidders against one another, the Sox could genuinely overhaul the entire farm system with this pair of trades — to say nothing of deals involving Fedde, Pham and the other previously mentioned veterans. It’s going to take an enormous package of prospects to pry either player from the Sox, but with widespread mediocrity permeating the National League and leaving few teams in position to truly wave the white flag on the 2024 season, it could be a seller’s market. There’s no salvaging this lost season for the South Siders, but getting one or both of these trades right could wildly accelerate their rebuilding efforts.

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