Assessing The Brewers’ Rotation
As seems to be the case every spring, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the Brewers’ rotation. Milwaukee eschewed a splashy trade or a potentially cumbersome long-term pact in free agencu, instead opting for lower-cost deals with righty Josh Lindblom (three years, $9.125MM) and Brett Anderson (one year, $5MM) As things currently stand, that duo will likely join holdovers Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser in comprising four of the top five spots.
As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters yesterday that the competition will likely boil down to left-hander Eric Lauer and right-hander Freddy Peralta (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Righty Corbin Burnes isn’t entirely out of the race, but Counsell did indicate that veteran right-hander Shelby Miller won’t be considered just yet. While Miller was invited to MLB camp and will presumably get some innings there, he’s working to reestablish himself after several lost seasons.
The competition between Lauer and Peralta will be a key one for Brewers fans to follow this spring. The former, a 24-year-old lefty picked up alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego, already has nearly two full seasons of MLB experience under his belt despite his relative youth. Lauer started 29 games for the Padres last season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings.
Lauer pitched into the seventh and eighth inning on a few occasions but ultimately averaged about five frames per start — a concept that should be plenty familiar to Brewers fans at this point. Milwaukee regularly limited the aforementioned Davies and right-hander Chase Anderson to two trips through the opponents’ batting order, leveraging a deep bullpen thereafter. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, Lauer could be deployed in similar fashion.
Peralta, meanwhile, is still just 23 year of age. Like Lauer, he’s racked up a fair bit of big league experience in his early 20s, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA in 163 1/3 Major League innings to this point. Peralta spent most of the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role — showing better in that capacity than he did as a starting pitcher. But Peralta has added a new pitch to his repertoire this winter, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently highlighted, which could change his fortunes. A chat with former big league righty and current Brewers special assistant Carlos Villanueva led to Peralta trying out a slider in the Dominican Winter League, and he responded with a 34-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with los Toros del Este.
The 25-year-old Burnes could be something of a wild card as camp progresses. A consensus top 100 prospect heading into 2018, Burnes debuted in dominant fashion with the ’18 club when he tossed 38 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with a 35-to-11 K/BB ratio. He made 30 total relief appearances, allowing just 27 hits (four homers); of his 11 walks, two were of the intentional variety. Burnes posted elite spin rates on his curve and heater while flashing high-end velocity. He looked like a potential cornerstone for the pitching staff.
The 2019 season was an unmitigated disaster for Burnes, however. The hitter-friendly nature of the 2019 ball likely didn’t help matters, nor did a sky-high .414 average on balls in play. But Burnes’ poor showing can’t be solely blamed on a juiced ball or poor luck; he was absolutely torched for 48 runs in 49 innings of work — yielding a stunning 17 home runs in that time. The right-hander showed a clear knack for missing bats (12.9 K/9, 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate) but struggled with location both in and out of the zone far. Burnes’ walk rate increased, and his inability to command the ball within the zone contributed to that barrage of long balls.
Regardless of how it shakes out, the Milwaukee rotation will enter the season facing its share of scrutiny. That’s been the case in both of the past two seasons, however, and the team reached the postseason in both instances. A year ago. The 2019 season saw Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Houser and Gio Gonzalez make the majority of its starts. A year prior, the Brewers entered the season with Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter and Wade Miley (then on a minor league reclamation deal) heading up its rotation mix.
There may not be a surefire ace among Milwaukee’s starting staff, but both Woodruff and Houser posted sub-4.00 ERAs with strong peripheral marks in more than 100 innings in 2019. Lindblom is an undeniably interesting flier coming off a dominant run in the Korea Baseball Organization, thanks in part to a new splitter. Brett Anderson has a 4.07 ERA and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons (256 1/3 innings). It’s not the most outwardly impressive group of arms, but the Brewers have begun to make a habit of compiling serviceable staffs that are light on name value. They’ll be looking for more of the same in 2020.
NL Central Notes: Stearns, Hader, Pirates, Reds
Let’s take a look at the latest from around the NL Central…
- “Frankly, at this point, we don’t think too much about that,” Brewers GM David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter video link), MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, and other reporters when asked what pitchers are currently penciled into the starting rotation. As usual, the Brew Crew will be flexible as possible in deciding which pitchers start games and how many innings they’ll accumulate, with Stearns citing Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes as hurlers with starting experience. Peralta and Burnes will indeed still get consideration for starting jobs, Stearns said, though both struggled in the role last season. This isn’t to say that rotation additions couldn’t still be made, and relief help could also come later in the offseason, Stearns said. Milwaukee had interest in re-signing both free agent Jordan Lyles and the non-tendered Junior Guerra before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
- Eyebrows were raised earlier this week at reports that the Brewers were open to trade offers for superstar reliever Josh Hader. While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.” Obviously, it would take a major offer to land Hader, who is controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season as a Super Two player.
- Since Jacob Stallings is the only catcher on the Pirates‘ 40-man roster, it isn’t any shock that GM Ben Cherington told media members (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic) that the Bucs are looking to upgrade the catching corps “in some ways.” Biertempfel notes that Cherington was “emphasizing the plural,” meaning that Pittsburgh will look to add multiple catchers for both the big league club and the farm system.
- With so much action on the free agent market so far, “I personally feel like there’s less trade activity likely to happen at the Winter Meetings than in prior years,” Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters. “I think that’s the trend and I feel like other baseball front offices…feel like it’s gotten to the point where with all the other stuff that’s going on, it’s a time to continue conversations, but it’s really hard to push things across the finish line from a trade perspective.” The Reds have already one major free agent splash in signing Mike Moustakas and have been linked to several other big names, though while Williams “would say it’s entirely possible” Cincinnati makes another signing during the Meetings, “there is not one that I would say is likely to happen yet….I don’t have one that is closing in on a physical or something.”
David Stearns Discusses Brewers Roster Questions
Brewers GM David Stearns talked about the upcoming offseason in the wake of his club’s Wild Card loss, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel among those to cover the proceedings.
Despite the disappointing end, it was obviously another successful campaign, as the Brewers charged late and again reached the postseason despite losing superstar Christian Yelich. But the club won’t be able to rest on its laurels, as there are a variety of decisions to be made right out of the gates.
As Stearns puts it, he and his front office has “some important questions” that will need to be answered. Every offseason has its own “narrative,” he said, and it’s still not clear what path this one will take.
The first call that has to be made involves corner infielders Eric Thames ($7.5MM club option, $1MM buyout) and Travis Shaw (arbitration eligible). Stearns said he hasn’t reached any decision on Thames, who had a productive season with the bat and seems a reasonable value at that price. As for Shaw, whose season was a disaster, Stearns says the club will “spend a lot of effort internally determining what to do” in advance of the non-tender deadline.
The Shaw situation ties in to the Brewers’ slate of departing free agents, which includes several key players. Infielder Mike Moustakas could replace Shaw, though he’ll likely require a bigger commitment to retain than he commanded on the open market last winter. And then there’s Yasmani Grandal, who had a highly productive year behind the plate and will leave a big hole. Stearns was happy to acknowledge that he’d “love to have both of them back.” Will it happen? “Whether the realities of the market permit that and whether the realities of the free-agent market permit that is something we will have to evaluate as we go through the off-season.”
Likewise, a pair of key hurlers will be available to all teams. Mid-season trade acquisitions Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz. Stearns called the pair “unbelievable” and said he’d be interested in returns in both cases. “They both contributed a lot to this club and I’m sure we’ll be in contact with them,” said Stearns.
There’s no shortage of other roster issues to be addressed. The Brewers’ creative pitching strategies will again be tested. Stearns said he isn’t ready to say precisely how hurlers such as Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brent Suter will be used next year, though he did note that “we tend to blur lines between starters and relievers anyways.” And it certainly sounds as if the Brewers will at least be interested in exploring ways of supplementing (if not supplanting) Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Stearns says the team “need[s] better overall production” from that spot, though he added that he believes Arcia is “a better player than he showed this year” and that the incumbent could still represent the necessary solution.
Quick Hits: Brewers, Cubs, Rays, Mariners
Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson last took a major league mound Sept. 8, 2017, when he suffered a partially torn labrum that derailed a breakout season. Almost 20 months later, it appears Nelson is nearing a return to the majors. The 29-year-old, who has been pitching in extended spring training, will begin a rehab assignment Sunday at the Triple-A level, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. In another piece of encouraging news for the Brewers’ struggling rotation, righty Freddy Peralta could rejoin the team after his Double-A rehab start Saturday, manager Craig Counsell said. Peralta went to the IL on April 16 with a shoulder issue. The 24-year-old has only managed a 7.13 ERA/5.82 FIP with a 21.1 percent groundball rate in four starts this season, though he also logged 11.21 K/9 against 3.57 BB/9 during that 17 2/3-inning span.
Here’s more from around the majors…
- The Cubs shut down injured reliever Brandon Morrow a week ago, but he’s nonetheless optimistic he’ll pitch this year, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. Biceps and elbow problems have prevented Morrow from taking the hill since last July, adding to the unfortunate array of injuries the 34-year-old has dealt with during his career. “Every injury I’ve come back the same or better,” Morrow told Rogers. “Frustrating it’s going to be a little longer but just needs a little more time to heal.” Morrow will have a Synvisc injection Monday to “lubricate and help to protect the area around my elbow,” though Rogers notes it’s not a permanent solution. In the event Morrow doesn’t come back this season, it’s possible he has thrown his last pitch with the Cubs. They’ll have a chance to buy him out for $3MM in lieu of a $12MM vesting option over the winter. In the meantime, their bullpen has clearly missed a healthy Morrow this season, having posted a 4.84 ERA with 5.63 BB/9.
- Rays second baseman Joey Wendle‘s fractured right wrist will shelve him for at least six to eight weeks, according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). This season has been an injury-riddled nightmare for Wendle, who previously missed three weeks on account of a left hamstring strain. Wendle hasn’t gotten to properly follow up last year’s impressive rookie showing as a result. The first-place Rays have held their own without him, though, thanks in part to second base replacement Brandon Lowe.
- Longtime major league center fielder Mike Cameron has accepted a coaching job in the Mariners organization, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. The 46-year-old Cameron will work with Mariners outfielders on defense and baserunning, largely at the minor league level. Cameron excelled in those two areas during his MLB career, which spanned from 1995-2011 and included a tremendous four-year run in Seattle from 2000-03. He was a key cog on the ’01 Mariners, who won 116 regular-season games and still stand as the franchise’s most recent playoff team.
Brewers Activate Jeremy Jeffress, Place Freddy Peralta On 10-Day IL
As expected, the Brewers have activated reliever Jeremy Jeffress from the injured list. He had opened the year on a rehab assignment while rebuilding arm strength.
That’s good news for the pen, but the club surprisingly announced another shoulder ailment that impacts the rotation. Freddy Peralta is evidently dealing with a problem in that joint; details remain unknown.
Peralta’s spot on the roster will be occupied by fellow righty Aaron Wilkerson, who was recalled. The Brewers also optioned down righty Jake Petricka to make way for Jeffress.
Last night’s outing was another rough one for Peralta, who has failed to record more than ten outs in three of his four starts. He was lights-out in the other, an eleven-strikeout, scoreless gem, but carries a 7.13 ERA for the season.
Brewers Move Chase Anderson To Bullpen, Set Rotation
The Brewers have settled on their Opening Day rotation, and they’ll be placing a good bit of faith in a young core of arms with limited big league experience, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. Veteran Jhoulys Chacin was named the Opening Day starter earlier in camp, and it’s now been confirmed by the team that he’ll be joined by right-handers Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Zach Davies. While the 26-year-old Davies has been a presence in the Milwaukee rotation for the past couple of seasons, this will mark the first time that Burnes, Woodruff and to a lesser extent Peralta are penciled in as long-term starters. (Peralta did start 14 games for the Brewers last year but finished the season with a pair of relief outings.)
The decision to sandwich that trio of young arms between Chacin and Davies means that 2018 Opening Day starter Chase Anderson will begin the year in a bullpen role. So, too, will right-hander Junior Guerra, who has started 60 games for the Brewers over the course of the past three seasons.
The decision on Anderson is of particular note given that he signed a two-year, $11.75MM contract in October 2017. He’ll earn $6.5MM this year under the terms of that pact, but the Brewers have a pair of club options on him valued at $8.5MM and $9.5MM, respectively. The shift to the bullpen seemingly makes it less likely that he’d be valued at that price point, though Anderson would remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player even if next year’s option is bought out, as he won’t have six full seasons of MLB service time.
The Brewers drew some criticism for not doing enough to address their rotation last winter in an offseason that saw them sign both Chacin and Wade Miley (who signed as a free agent with the Astros earlier in the current offseason). This winter, they didn’t make a single big league addition to their rotation, knowing full well that the trio of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta were now ready for big league roles.
It’s unconventional for a team with World Series aspirations to effectively begin the year auditioning three young starters, as promising as they may be, for long-term rotation roles. But, it’s also not difficult to see why the trio has earned the faith of the front office. Both Burnes and Woodruff have previously carried top 100 prospect billing and found some success in Triple-A despite playing their games there in an awful pitching environment (Colorado Springs). Both pitched well in relief roles at the MLB level last season, with Burnes in particular creating intrigue based on his spin rates (99th percentile in fastball, 89th in curveball) and velocity. Peralta, too, fared well in the hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in addition to turning in a 4.25 ERA (3.72 FIP) in his first 78 1/3 MLB frames.
It should also be noted that this iteration of the rotation is hardly permanent. Top starter Jimmy Nelson is on the mend from 2017 shoulder surgery and is nearing a return to the active roster. It’s also possible that either Anderson or Guerra could work his way back into the fold in the event of an injury or some shaky performance from one of the team’s younger arms. Righties Adrian Houser and Aaron Wilkerson are also on hand as 40-man options in Triple-A. And, as ever, the summer trade market will bear numerous options whom the Brewers could consider should the rotation prove to be an area of definitive need.
NL Central Notes: O’Neill, Brewers, Cubs
As things currently stand, slugging outfielder Tyler O’Neill is expected to make the Cardinals‘ Opening Day roster, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards “have reserved a spot for him as a spare outfielder, for now,” Goold writes, noting that poor health in the shoulder of Marcell Ozuna and/or continued struggles for Dexter Fowler could eventually thrust him into a larger role. And with Ozuna set to hit free agency at season’s end, a more natural path to everyday at-bats for the 23-year-old O’Neill isn’t hard to see. As Goold highlights in chatting with hitting coach Jeff Albert, O’Neill has worked diligently to improve his contact skills as he seeks a more well-rounded offensive profile. O’Neill slugged 35 homers between Triple-A and the Majors last season but punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances in Triple-A and more than 40 percent of his 142 PAs in the Majors.
More from the division…
- Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and discussed his club’s patient approach in free agency, as well as the decision not to bring in any rotation help from the free-agent market. “I’d say we explored various opportunities on the starting pitching market, but in the backdrop of all of that was the depth and comfort level that we have with our young starters,” said Stearns. “We rode a lot of these guys deep into the playoffs last year, whether it’s Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta or Corbin Burnes. They were in slightly different roles; we’re going to be asking more of them throughout the course of the year this year, but we think they have the potential to do it.” Asked if the team would have the financial wherewithal to make in-season additions after signing Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas, Stearns voiced confidence that owner Mark Attanasio is “willing to support this team and stretch the limits,” pointing to the very additions of Grandal and Moustakas as evidence of that mentality.
- Although the Cubs didn’t make any kind of significant splash in free agency, they’re also not viewing the current roster as a finished product, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Part of the team’s lack of spending stems from a desire to make sure there are ample resources in place this summer to address in-season needs via the trade market. “We don’t know what it’s going to be, but certainly there’s going to be a major focus to make sure we’re in position to improve the team in the middle of the season,” said general manager Jed Hoyer of potential summer activity.
- Perhaps the biggest additions the Cubs could see in 2019 would be healthy versions of Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish. Bryant said today in an appearance on 670 The Score that his shoulder feels “completely healed,” stressing that he’s not feeling any lingering effects of the injury that slowed him in 2018 (Twitter link). Darvish, meanwhile, spoke with confidence following his most recent spring outing, with particular excitement over the fact that his fastball reached 97 mph in that game (link via Wittenmyer). Obviously, only time will tell whether either former All-Star can rebound to something resembling peak form, but the fact that neither appears hampered by lingering effects of last season’s health struggles is nonetheless a positive sign for Cubs fans early on in camp.
Brewers Release Eric Sogard, Activate Wade Miley
4:29pm: Peralta will indeed remain in the rotation after the All-Star break, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (Twitter link via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The move to option him, then, was simply a means of getting some additional arms in the ‘pen. Peralta will be able to return to the club as early as Sunday after the All-Star break.
4:20pm: The Brewers announced this afternoon that veteran infielder Eric Sogard, who’d previously been designated for assignment, has been released. Milwaukee also announced that Wade Miley has been reinstated from the 60-day disabled list. Meanwhile, infielder Nate Orf and right-hander Jorge Lopez were optioned to Triple-A, with righties Adrian Houser and Alec Asher being recalled in their place. Lastly, right-hander Freddy Peralta was optioned to Class-A — though that move seems likely to be procedural in nature, as Peralta wouldn’t have been in line to pitch until after the All-Star break anyhow.
It’s been a nightmare of a season for the 32-year-old Sogard, who batted just .134/.241/.165 through 113 trips to the plate before being designated for assignment. He’s typically considered to be a strong defender at second base, but he’s spent more time this season at shortstop, where he hasn’t rated as well defensively.
Sogard’s production at the plate was a far cry fro last season’s .273/.393/.378 slash through 299 plate appearances — though he never seemed likely to repeat that career-best output. In 1743 career plate appearances at the MLB level, Sogard is a .238/.309/.314 hitter with terrific marks for his glovework at second base. He’s now able to sign with any club seeking to bolster its infield depth, and a new team will only owe him the pro-rated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors; the Brewers will be on the hook for the remainder of his $2.4MM salary — a sum of roughly $1.03MM through season’s end).
Miley, meanwhile, will return to the Brewers’ rotation after missing just over two months to a rather severe oblique injury. He pitched just 6 1/3 innings for Milwaukee earlier this season, missing the first several weeks of the year due to a groin strain and then injuring his oblique in just his second start of the season. Miley had a terrible run in 2016-17 between the Mariners and Orioles, leading him to a minor league pact with Milwaukee this season. He’ll look to reestablish himself as a useful source of innings moving forward, in hopes of securing a big league deal when he returns to the free-agent market this offseason.