MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,886 people entered the contest. Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going. (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year? Click here).
1. Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)
2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)
3. Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)
4. Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)
5. Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)
6. Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)
7. Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)
8. Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)
10. Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)
Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.
As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.
In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.
The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.
Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.
Rangers Exploring Top-Tier Free Agents
The Rangers will enter the offseason with their eyes set at the very top prizes of free agency, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Whether they’ll come away with any major targets remains to be seen, but the club has now made clear it’ll pursue the biggest names available.
GM Jon Daniels has been circumspect in prior comments, but today he was ready to announce the reemergence of the Rangers as a major open-market player.
“This year, we are going to look at everything,” he said. “Our goal is to get better, period. There are a couple of spots more [available] than others. We have signed [top free agents] before and at some point I have to suspect we will again.”
It certainly stands to reason that now’s the time to jump back in with both feet. As we explored in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, there’s obvious need in the rotation and at third base — the two loaded areas on which this year’s free-agent class. And the club seems to have the payroll space needed to make something big happen, particularly with a shiny new ballpark coming online.
In our ranking of the top fifty free agents, we predicted the Rangers would land a notable third baseman and starting pitcher — while factoring in the market for quite a few of the top free agents. It’s tough to say whether the Texas org will ultimately be a significant player for expected nine-figure free agents such as Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, but all are plausible targets. Indeed, Grant reports that the club has already chatted with agent Scott Boras about both of those players, which certainly suggests the Rangers want to throw their hat in the ring.
Brian Cashman Discusses Gerrit Cole, Yankees Offseason
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed a variety of topics this evening at the GM Meetings. Chief among them was the starting pitching market. Cashman confirmed to reporters (including Andy Martino of SNY) that the Yankees will engage with Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg this offseason. Cashman added, though, that the club has a significant amount of money already on the books (via Erik Boland of Newsday) and will also explore the trade and lower-tier free agent markets (reports James Wagner of the New York Times).
Clearly, Cashman and his front office are open to whatever opportunities may present themselves and aren’t locked into any specific means of improving the roster. Nevertheless, it’s still notable that the Yankees will engage with the market’s top arms. Cole, in particular, will come at a hefty cost. MLBTR forecasted an eight-year, $256MM deal for Cole, who stands a good chance of securing the offseason’s largest contract. Unsurprisingly, Cole’s camp figures to come out shooting even higher, with ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) estimating agent Scott Boras’ initial ask will exceed $300MM. While Cole doesn’t ultimately figure to command a price quite that high, bringing him in will no doubt require a franchise-altering outlay.
Signing Cole would certainly require that the Yankees exceed the $208MM luxury tax threshold, as they did in 2019. Cashman added that ownership hasn’t mandated the payroll remain south of the luxury tax (via Martino), although he stopped short of definitively declaring they would pay the penalties for the second consecutive year. The club’s luxury tax estimate already sits at almost $210MM, per Cot’s Contracts, before accounting for any offseason expenditures.
Cashman also addressed the status of three of New York’s own free agents. He confirmed reports the club has engaged with representatives for Brett Gardner (via Wagner), and added that New York remains in touch with reps for Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. MLBTR forecasted a Gardner reunion while projecting Gregorius and Betances to wind up elsewhere, although it’s plausible they bring one or both of the latter back.
Clearly, the situation remains in flux at these early stages of the offseason. Cashman didn’t commit to pursuing any specific players and expressed a willingness to evaluate all potential areas of player acquisition, as one would expect. The Bombers will cast a wide net as they look to fortify their roster in hopes of defending their AL East crown, including at least monitoring the very top of the market.
Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency
7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.
We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.
Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.
That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ‘Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.
2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.
Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).
Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).
Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”
Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.
Payroll Notes: Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mariners
Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…
- The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
- The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.
Crane: Astros Will “Take A Run At” Gerrit Cole
Just over a month ago, Astros owner Jim Crane expressed uncertainty as to whether the team would try to re-sign right-hander Gerrit Cole – now the undisputed best pitcher available in free agency. But Crane, who just watched his Astros drop a hard-fought seven-game World Series against the Nationals, has publicly changed his tune. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Monday that the Astros will at least make an effort to keep the coveted Cole in Houston.
“We’re going to take a run at it,” Crane said. “We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.”
The famed Boras is sure to drive an especially hard bargain in negotiations for Cole. After all, the 29-year-old flamethrower is coming off a marvelous season that could see him earn Cy Young honors for the first time. Even if Cole – who’s a finalist for the AL award with two starters he knows well in the Astros’ Justin Verlander and the Rays’ Charlie Morton – doesn’t wind up winning, a record payday should soon be in the offing. The seven-year, $217MM contract David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 still stands as the largest deal a pitcher has ever signed, though Cole has a legitimate chance to obliterate (not just surpass) that guarantee prior to next season.
MLBTR forecasts an eight-year, $256MM pact for Cole, and that type of money could make a return to Houston especially unlikely if the team’s bent on avoiding the luxury tax. Crane has already said the Astros would “prefer not to” spend beyond the $208MM tax threshold in 2020. However, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained last month, limboing under the line looks as if it will be a challenge even without Cole in the mix. Indeed, factoring in the arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs estimates the Astros already have upward of $239MM in luxury-tax calculations for next year. There’s room to trim some of that down – including by, say, non-tendering Aaron Sanchez (who’s projected to earn a $5.6MM salary) – but seemingly not enough to put the Astros in a position to re-up Cole without blowing the $208MM mark out of the water.
Of course, there’s an argument the Astros – if they actually do want to keep Cole – should throw tax concerns aside. As Adams previously pointed out, even if the Astros were to outspend the $208MM figure by $40MM next season, they’d “only” pay in the range of $10.4MM in penalties. That amount doesn’t look as if it should stop a team from working to re-sign one of the premier pitchers in baseball and someone who could soon rake in an overall guarantee worth approximately 25 times that sum.
10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
Coaching Notes: Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo set out to hire a pitching coach with four specific qualifications, per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. He was looking for someone, obviously, with pitching knowledge, good communication skills, and the ability to work well with the team’s medical personnel, but Lovullo also wanted someone with the creativity and innovative instincts to stay up-to-speed with the changing shape of the game. Matt Herges may not be the picture-perfect candidate, but he’s the guy with the job. And while Arizona reportedly offered the job to Kirk Saarloos and Bryan Price before Herges, they are no doubt content with Herges and value the eagerness with which he has come to the role. Sometimes the right decision is as simple as hiring the person who wants the job most.
- A lot was made of Gerrit Cole beginning to get warm in the bullpen during the 5th inning of the World Series’ clinching game, but apparently that was nothing more than a bit of self-direction of Cole’s part, per A.J. Hinch in an interview with The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Hinch did have Cole up and warming in the 7th, as the plan was for Will Harris to escape the inning and Cole to start the 8th with a 2-1 lead. Best-laid plans, in this case, never got Cole into the ballgame. Still, Hinch stands by his decision to go with Harris at that point, as well as Roberto Osuna and Joe Smith following. Frankly, all four were legitimate options in those spots, though the results ultimately make any defense of Hinch’s decisions, like the game itself, a losing battle.
- Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro remains in the running for managerial openings with the Giants and Pirates, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. He was not specifically identified within a group of favorites that included Gabe Kapler, Pedro Grifol, and Joe Espada, but he did interview at least once with San Francisco, and there’s still a chance he becomes the third Rays staffer to land a managing gig in as many years.
Gerrit Cole Discusses Future
The 2019 season came to a sad end Wednesday for the Astros, who watched their 2-0 lead over the Nationals in Game 7 of the World Series evaporate during the latter stages of the contest. The club may now be on the verge of losing one of its best players, free-agent right-hander Gerrit Cole, who did not factor into its Game 7 loss. Speaking to reporters afterward, Cole sounded like someone who believes his Astros tenure is over.
“I’m not an employee of the team,” Cole said to an Astros spokesperson (via Hunter Atkins of the Houston Chronicle). “I guess as a representative of myself…”
Cole was wearing a hat representing his agency, the Boras Corporation, at the time. But Cole indicated Thursday (per Atkins) that didn’t mean anything, calling the cap “a good luck charm.” He also walked back his comments from Wednesday, saying: “I was upset, and my tone did not come off quite the way I wanted it to. One win away. We had the lead with eight outs to go. It’s just a tough pill to swallow.”
After starter Zack Greinke exited with a 2-1 lead, one out and a runner on first in the top of the seventh inning, the Astros could have subbed in Cole and attempted to ride to the finish line with the potential AL Cy Young winner. However, in fairness to manager A.J. Hinch, Cole has not pitched in relief since his days at UCLA. With that in mind, Hinch turned to Will Harris – who was brilliant for most of the postseason – and then closer Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith and Jose Urquidy. In the end, the team’s relief corps failed miserably in what wound up as a 6-2 year-ending implosion for the Astros.
Of course, even a championship-clinching win Wednesday wouldn’t have changed the fact that the Astros have their work cut out for them in trying to keep Cole. At the outset of the playoffs, owner Jim Crane admitted he’s unsure whether Houston will be able to put a legitimate bid on the table for Cole, who seems more and more likely to blow past David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM contract and sign the richest deal ever for a pitcher. Concerns over the luxury tax could help bring an end to Cole’s run with the Astros after two extraordinarily productive seasons, but despite the frustration the 29-year-old showed Wednesday, he’s not closing the door on a potential new agreement with Houston.
“I’m really grateful for this experience. I’ve loved every minute of it. I’m not saying goodbye, by any means,” Cole said Thursday. “I truthfully don’t have a crystal ball. I could speak to what I know. And I know that I’ve loved every second here and I loved competing with the guys.”