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Hyun-Jin Ryu

Dodgers Notes: Seager, Bullpen Trades, Ryu

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The Dodgers announced today that they’ve activated Corey Seager from the injured list and optioned first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Seager, 25, will ultimately miss just under a month due to a strained left hamstring. He’ll now rejoin a Dodgers roster that recently welcomed David Freese back from the injured list and is set to get A.J. Pollock back as well. Los Angeles still has a 13.5 game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and will likely be in an all-the-more commanding position with several key players back to full strength. However, the L.A. front office still has some work to do in the three weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on the Dodgers…

  • The Dodgers have “varying levels of interest in multiple Giants relievers,” writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles harbor some degree of interest in each of Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta. That quartet likely appeals to the majority of contending clubs throughout the game, though, and there’s no indication within Morosi’s report that there are any substantive talks between the two sides. The Dodgers are loath to part with any of their top four prospects for a rental reliever, making Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz and their own Will Smith unlikely to change hands in any type of deal for one of San Francisco’s short-term assets.
  • If the recent comments from Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn’t sufficiently quash the Dodgers/Felipe Vazquez connection, Morosi writes that Pittsburgh would require “at least two” of the four aforementioned top prospects (Lux, May, Smith, Ruiz) to headline a Vazquez deal. Between that and Huntington’s declaration that the team’s “expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” it doesn’t seem wise to bank on Vazquez landing in Los Angeles (or anywhere else, for that matter).
  • In a more high-level look at the Dodgers’ trade needs, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com points out that the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers have not been a team that has been willing to deal away its very best prospects, making a high-profile acquisition of Smith, Brad Hand, Vazquez, etc. less likely than some trades to more affordably acquire some second-tier relievers on the market. He suggests that a reunion with Watson or Blue Jays righty Daniel Hudson is more plausible than a marquee splash. (To be clear, those are speculative examples listed by Gurnick rather than specific trades that the Dodgers are actively pursuing.)
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu’s gamble on accepting the qualifying offer made by the Dodgers could prove one of the wisest decisions of the offseason, writes Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, who notes that Ryu is now positioned to cash in on a major contract (without the burden of draft compensation, as players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers). Indeed, over his past 191 1/3 regular-season innings, Ryu has a 1.83 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. More broadly, Castillo’s column is a terrific look at the long road that Ryu took from intriguing high-school prospect coveted by the Dodgers and Twins to 2019 All-Star Game starter. Dodgers fans who have not previously familiarized themselves with Ryu’s path to stardom in the United States will want to be sure to give the story a read-through.

Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu could have shopped his services to all 30 major league teams last offseason, but the career-long Dodger opted against going to the open market. Instead, Ryu accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer to stay in Los Angeles, in part because of a long list of injury troubles that could have hampered his earning power. Dating back to 2013, the Korean-born Ryu’s first season in the majors, he has missed significant time because of arm problems (including shoulder and elbow surgeries) as well as foot and groin issues. The latter forced Ryu to the 10-day IL earlier this season, but he got off to a strong start before then and has come back far better since returning April 20.

After throwing just 82 1/3 innings last season, Ryu has already amassed 73 frames through the first two months of 2019. Ryu shut out the Mets over 7 2/3 innings on Thursday to finish May with an incredible four scoreless starts in six tries. Across 45 2/3 innings this month, Ryu pitched to a near-spotless 0.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts against a meager three walks. He now owns easily the majors’ leading ERA (1.48) and walk rate (0.62 per nine, with 8.51 K/9). His success in the run prevention and walk categories doesn’t look like a fluke either. Ryu, after all, put up a 1.97 ERA with 1.64 BB/9 (against 9.73 K/9) during his injury-shortened 2018.

Even if Ryu isn’t quite as great as his ERA indicates, his 2.78 FIP over the past season-plus is befitting of a front-line starter and ranks sixth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since 2018. He’s behind a pretty good quintet of Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole in that regard. DeGrom, Sale and Corbin have each scored nine-figure contracts going back to the offseason, while Cole figures to join them when he reaches free agency during the upcoming winter.

Ryu’s also on schedule to reach the open market, though he’s not going to cash in to the same extent as Cole. Concerns over Ryu’s durability figure to combine with the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s age and 2013-17 performance (when he was good but not great) to cap his earning power. However, he can look in his own locker room to find a lefty who overcame injury questions, advanced age and a far shorter track record than Ryu’s to recently score a large payday in free agency. That’s Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers re-signed to a three-year, $48MM guarantee heading into 2017 – his age-37 season.

Free agency worked out for Hill, but one would be remiss to ignore the fact that the process has taken an unfriendly turn for certain hurlers since he landed his payday. Jake Arrieta received less guaranteed cash than expected in 2018, while Gio Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal entering this season and Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned. At the same time, however, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn did surmount obstacles of their own en route to $30MM-plus guarantees in the previous two offseasons.

We’ll use the $30MM number as a jumping-off point for this poll, but if Ryu continues to perform like a front-line option and stay reasonably healthy, he could blow past it.

(Poll link for app users)

Dodgers Place Hyun-Jin Ryu On Injured List

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April 9: The Dodgers announced that Ryu has been placed on the injured list. Righty J.T. Chargois has been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City in his place and will join the Dodgers’ bullpen.

April 8, 11:45pm: Ryu said after the game that he does not feel he has suffered a significant injury, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). The southpaw characterized his exit as precautionary. That’s certainly promising, though manager Dave Roberts made clear that Ryu was nevertheless destined for a stint on the injured list.

8:25pm: The Dodgers may well send another high-priced lefty to the inured list after watching Hyun-Jin Ryu leave the mound early tonight. He’s dealing with a left groin strain, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter.

There’s added concern here due to Ryu’s history. He suffered a torn left groin muscle last year, ultimately missing about ten weeks of action. Ryu ended up making 15 starts, pitching well enough to receive a qualifying offer — which he accepted.

For the Dodgers, issuing Ryu the QO represented a bet that he’d be on the hill enough to warrant a $17.9MM price tag on one year of his services. He’s worth that and more when healthy, but his availability has been something of a flip of the coin for much of his MLB career. Since coming to the majors from his native Korea in advance of the 2013 campaign, Ryu carries a 3.17 ERA but has averaged only 95 frames and 16 starts annually.

Ryu joins Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill on the shelf. Fortunately, those hurlers are making progress (the former in particular) and the Dodgers have an exceptionally deep group of pitchers. And the club isn’t exactly suffering in the results department at the moment. Still, the rotation resources have already been strained, so it’s worrying to see another potentially significant injury.

Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.

Hyun-Jin Ryu To Accept Dodgers’ Qualifying Offer

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3:04pm: Ryu will indeed accept the qualifying offer, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.

12:01pm: Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu is “most likely” going to accept the one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from a source, though nothing has been finalized as of yet.  The seven free agents who have qualifying offers pending have until 4pm CT today to accept or decline the one-year contracts.

Of those seven names, Ryu was the only one who seemed like a realistic candidate to accept the QO, given his significant injury history.  Separate surgeries on Ryu’s shoulder and elbow cost him all of the 2015 season and limited him to just a single game in 2016, and a torn groin sidelined Ryu for almost three months of the 2018 campaign.  The southpaw also had DL stints for more minor hip and foot issues in 2017.

These health concerns surely would’ve impacted Ryu’s stock on the free agent market, plus rejecting the qualifying offer would’ve meant that Ryu’s next team would’ve had to surrender draft picks and potentially international signing pool funds in order to sign him.  The QO, Ryu’s health history, and his age (he turns 32 in March) all factored into a relatively modest placement for the left-hander on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Ryu was ranked 20th, with a projected three-year, $33MM contract (from the Dodgers).

If he does end up accepting the qualifying offer, Ryu would lock in a big payday for 2019 that is worth more than half of that $33MM projection.  The $17.9MM salary, in fact, would represent just under half of Ryu’s entire Major League earnings to this point, as he originally signed a six-year, $36MM contract with Los Angeles for over the 2013-18 seasons.  He’ll get another opportunity to prove that he can remain healthy over a full season, while doing so in a familiar environment of Dodger Stadium and playing for a contending team.  Ryu is also ineligible to ever receive another qualifying offer in any future trips into the free agent market, and thus wouldn’t have any further draft pick/international money compensation attached to his services.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, committing $17.9MM to an oft-injured starter is something of a risk, considering that the team already has several rotation options in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood (not to mention youngsters like Brock Stewart or Caleb Ferguson).  Starting pitching depth has been a centerpiece of the Dodgers’ success, however, as the team has dealt with injuries to virtually all of its starters over the last few years.  Even in the unlikely event that all of these arms stay healthy, the Dodgers could still deploy the excess pitchers in the bullpen — Wood, Stripling, and Maeda all spent time as relievers down the stretch last season.

Furthermore, Ryu pitched so well in 2018 that the Dodgers felt a one-year, $17.9MM investment was worth seeing if the lefty could stay healthy and duplicate his performance.  Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA, 5.93 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9 over 82 1/3 innings last season, with a 90.2 mph average fastball that was in line with his pre-surgery velocity.  There also wasn’t much batted-ball luck baked into Ryu’s numbers, as his wOBA and xwOBA were a perfect match (.268).

Ryu would become the sixth free agent to ever accept a qualifying offer, of the 80 who have been issued the one-year deals since the QO system was introduced for the 2012-13 offseason.  Ryu’s situation bears a lot of similarities to that of Brett Anderson, whose own lengthy injury history also factored into his decision to accept a qualifying offer from the Dodgers following the 2015 season rather than test free agency.

Dodgers To Issue Qualifying Offer To Hyun-Jin Ryu

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The Dodgers have extended a qualifying offer to left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll have ten days to decide whether to accept the one-year, $17.9MM offer.

While all of the other qualifying offer recipients were fairly straightforward cases, it was hardly clear that Ryu would receive one. But the Los Angeles organization has shown time and again that it is not afraid of risking money on talented pitchers who come with health questions, so they have decided to stake a hefty pile of cash on a player they originally signed out of Korea six seasons ago.

Since coming to Los Angeles, Ryu has been steadily excellent — when healthy. He owns a career 3.20 ERA in the majors, but hasn’t yet cracked 600 total innings because of significant shoulder and elbow surgeries along with a groin tear. In the 2018 campaign, Ryu recorded 82 1/3 frames of 1.97 ERA ball, with an appealing mix of 89 strikeouts and just 15 walks backing the results.

Given the health history, the 31-year-old Ryu may well consider taking the offer. If not, he’ll enter the free-agent market in search of a contract that likely won’t pay him quite at that annual rate, but could certainly included much more total guaranteed money. Of course, his market would be harmed to some extent by the fact that a signing team would need to surrender draft compensation to add him.

Ultimately, the Dodgers will end the day having issued qualifying offers to two players: Ryu and Yasmani Grandal. The club unquestionably would have had another in Clayton Kershaw, but locked him up with a new deal before the deadline for him to exercise an opt-out clause.

Dodgers Will Make Qualifying Offer To Yasmani Grandal

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The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.

The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.

It’d be a surprise to see Grandal accept the QO, though even if he does so, the Dodgers would likely be pleased to retain him on a one-year deal after he hit .241/.349/.466 with 24 home runs in 2018. Only Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Grandal among big league catchers, and only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto turned in a better all-around offensive performance when adjusting for league and park (by measure of wRC+). By that measure, the average catcher was 16 percent worse than a league-average hitter; Grandal, conversely, was 25 percent better than a league-average hitter.

That gap in production should lead to considerable interest on the open market. The Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Twins and Dodgers themselves are among the teams who could use help behind the plate next year.

As for Ryu, the decision likely boils down to the Dodgers’ tolerance for risk. The lefty was excellent when healthy this season, pitching to a masterful 1.97 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings. Ryu, however, missed three months with a significant groin tear and has made just 40 starts over the past four seasons combined. While his performance on a per-inning basis is undoubtedly worth that level of pay in today’s baseball climate, the Dodgers would face the risk that Ryu would accept the QO given concerns other teams would have about surrendering draft compensation and paying a premium for a pitcher with such pronounced durability issues.

Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Urias, Ibanez, Ryu, Kershaw

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Though Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts technically isn’t under contract for the 2019 season, the organization has a club option on him that could still be exercised. General manager Farhan Zaidi, though, indicated in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that a longer arrangement could be in the works (Twitter link, with audio).  “As far as Dave goes, those conversations have been ongoing for the last couple months,” said Zaidi. “As the conversation’s going, certainly we would prefer to work out something longer-term than just picking up the option. All sides feel good about it. [We] haven’t been commenting too extensively, publicly, but obviously he’s done a tremendous job with this club.”

Roberts is a somewhat polarizing figure among Dodgers fans, as many are frustrated with the Dodgers’ matchup-driven lineup construction, among other critiques. The Dodgers, though, have landed in back-to-back World Series and won three consecutive division titles under Roberts.

Here’s more out of Los Angeles as the Dodgers gear up for Game 3 against the Red Sox…

  • Though left-hander Julio Urias is thriving out of the bullpen for the Dodgers since returning from major shoulder surgery, Roberts told reporters that the 22-year-old’s future is still as a starter (Twitter link via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Urias won’t necessarily be penciled into the Opening Day rotation, it seems, but Roberts made clear that Urias will work as a starter for the Dodgers “at some point next year.” The Dodgers will be cautious with Urias’ workload in 2019, which is likely why they’re not making definitive declarations about his timeline to rejoin the rotation at present. His return from anterior capsule repair has been nothing short of remarkable, as he’s pitched 11 1/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs and yielded just two runs with 12 strikeouts and no walks allowed.
  • Raul Ibanez, who is serving as a special assistant to Zaidi and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, turned down the opportunity to interview for managerial openings this offseason, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports in his weekly notes column. Ibanez has long been tabbed as a potential skipper, though apparently he’s content in his current role. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him emerge as a serious candidate in future offseasons, though. Heyman also speculates that a qualifying offer could be made to Hyun-Jin Ryu and touches on Clayton Kershaw’s opt-out clause, noting that both Kershaw and the team hope to work something out. Kershaw is likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract, though the Dodgers could try to put together an extension offer that’ll keep him Los Angeles for a longer period.

NL Notes: Pence, Tebow, Wheeler, Ryu

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It seems Giants outfielder Hunter Pence has yet to fully resolve his future. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the veteran suggests he’s focused on appreciating the remainder of the 2018 season — the final campaign under his current contract. The 35-year-old indicates that he’s not yet sure of his outlook for 2019, but does tell Schulman that he “want[s] to play next year.” It certainly has not been Pence’s finest effort on the field, however, putting his future in doubt even if he prefers to give it another go. After struggling last year, Pence has fallen even further. Through 213 plate appearances, he owns only a .215/.254/.315 slash with three home runs. With his rough 2017 as a backdrop, it’s questionable at best that he’ll receive MLB offers this coming offseason.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Mets anticipate that Tim Tebow will be back for a third season with the organization in 2019, as Tim Healey of Newsday reports. The former NFL QB has been sidelined since the middle of the summer owing to a broken hamate bone, but otherwise ended things on a high note with a strong run at the plate. Of course, his overall line — .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and 103 strikeouts in 298 plate appearances — was not overly impressive for a 31-year-old corner outfielder at Double-A. But it’s actually quite the accomplishment given how things appeared at the outset of the experiment, and it’ll be interesting to see how Tebow performs next year at Triple-A. “I’d be surprised if he didn’t want to continue,” said assistant GM John Ricco.
  • Mets righty Zack Wheeler has had an incredibly exciting bounceback campaign, so much so that it may need to end early due to his accumulation of innings. As Aaron Bracy of the Associated Press writes (via Newsday), the club is considering putting Wheeler on ice the rest of the way rather than having him take back to the mound. Manager Mickey Callaway says it’s a matter of the Mets “want[ing] to make sure we’re taking care of the player.” Wheeler is now 99 innings past the 86 1/3 he compiled in 2017, a season in which he was still not at full health. With nothing left for Wheeler to prove or for the team to accomplish in the 2018 season, it stands to reason that caution is warranted. Wheeler, after all, now looks to be a key piece — or trade asset — after working to a 3.31 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers have their own pitching comeback tale of sorts, as southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu has been impressive when he has been available. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the veteran hurler says he’s not taking anything for granted after several injury-riddled campaigns. Indeed, even after making 24 starts last year, he was unable to participate in the postseason. Through 70 1/3 frames over 13 outings in 2018, however, the lefty owns an excellent 2.18 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. He just throttled the Rockies in a key divisional tilt and now looks to be an important part of the late-season L.A. pitching mix. It’s opportune timing both for the team and the player. Ryu is slated to enter free agency this winter, where he’ll be a risky but intriguing option.

Dodgers Activate Hyun-Jin Ryu, Place Ross Stripling On DL

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The Dodgers have activated left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu from the 60-day disabled list after an absence of nearly three months, the team announced this afternoon. Roster space for Ryu was created by placing Ross Stripling on the 10-day DL due to inflammation in his lower back and by transferring Tony Cingrani from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL. Manager Dave Roberts suggests to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times (Twitter link) that it’s not clear whether Stripling will be ready for activation once his 10-day window is up, stating that that determination is “up for debate.”

Ryu has been out since early May after suffering a significant groin tear in which part of his muscle tore completely off the bone. Prior to incurring that gruesome injury, Ryu was in the midst of a strong start to the 2018 campaign, working to a pristine 2.12 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 10 walks through 29 2/3 frames. He’ll join Clayton Kershaw, recently activated lefty Alex Wood, Rich Hill and Walker Buehler in the Los Angeles rotation for the time being.

Stripling, like fellow righty Kenta Maeda, had recently been shifted to a bullpen role despite generally strong results in the rotation this season. The L.A. relief corps has been nothing short of disastrous lately, with multiple relievers struggling since Kenley Jansen hit the disabled list due to an irregular heartbeat. His absence will make Roberts’ job even more difficult as he tries to piece together the team’s late innings in light of the ongoing struggles throughout the ’pen.

As for Cingrani, while his transfer to the 60-day disabled list clouds the lefty’s timeline for a return, it does appear that the Dodgers expect him back at some point in 2018. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets that Roberts expressed optimism that Cingrani will be back next month, in time to help the team in the final push down the stretch. While Cingrani’s 4.84 ERA through 22 1/3 innings wasn’t particularly impressive, he did tally a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio with a 51.1 percent grounder rate in that time, prompting metrics like FIP (2.17), xFIP (2.34) and SIERA (1.90) to forecast a considerably better outlook.

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