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Ian Kennedy

Royals, Ian Kennedy Making Progress On Deal

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The Royals and free-agent right-hander Ian Kennedy are “said to be making progress” on a contract, reports Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Talks between the Scott Boras client and the Kansas City front office are ongoing, per Heyman.

Kennedy, who turned 31 in December, would give the Royals some much-needed stability in the rotation. While Kansas City can currently trot out a combination of Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy, Chris Young and Kris Medlen in 2016 (with Jason Vargas on the mend from Tommy John surgery), that collective group comes with some question marks. Ventura has never topped 183 innings in a season and threw just 172 2/3 between Triple-A and the Majors last season. Likewise, Duffy’s career-high is 155 1/3 innings, and Young hasn’t tossed more than 165 innings in a season since 2007. Medlen totaled just 88 2/3 innings last year in his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery.

The Royals have been said to be on the lookout for additional starting rotation depth, although a deal with Kennedy would certainly qualify as more than merely “adding depth.” The right-hander turned down a qualifying offer from the Padres this past November, meaning the Royals would need to part with what currently lines up as the No. 24 overall pick in the draft in order to sign him. That’s a steep price to pay for any free agent, especially considering the fact that Kennedy is coming off a down season overall with San Diego, although it’s worth noting that he pitched quite well over the season’s final four months after a brutal start to the year.

Kennedy recorded a ghastly 7.15 ERA over his first eight starts, yielding a jarring 12 home runs in 39 innings in that stretch. But, from June 1 through season’s end, he righted the ship, working to a tidy 3.41 ERA with a 137-to-38 K/BB ratio and a more reasonable (but still lofty) 19 home runs allowed in 129 1/3 innings. His 2015 struggles notwithstanding, Kennedy has been a durable arm throughout the course of his career and showed no problems with the long ball as recently as 2014 with the Padres, when he posted a 3.63 ERA across 201 frames in one of his stronger overall campaigns in the Majors. While he’s never matched a dominant 2011 season in which he pitched to a 2.88 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 222 innings for the D-backs in their hitter-friendly home park (earning him a fourth-place vote in the NL Cy Young race), Kennedy has a track record of durability and strikeouts.

As a fly-ball pitcher who has, at times (specifically in 2013 and 2015) struggled with the long ball, the Royals seem, on paper, to be an excellent fit for Kennedy due to their expansive park and elite outfield defense, which features Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson (left to right). Additionally, the Royals have a very strong relationship with Scott Boras, having recently negotiate free-agent deals with Boras clients Kendrys Morales (though he has since switched agents), Alex Rios and Franklin Morales, to say nothing of homegrown talents like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Luke Hochevar and Christian Colon — all of whom are Boras clients as well.

Royals “Focused” On Kennedy, Talking With Gallardo

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The Royals are still pushing to add a rotation arm, according to multiple reports this morning, and appear to have their sights set upon the top of the remaining free-agent market. Kansas City “seems very focused” on Ian Kennedy, Jon Heyman tweets, but is still “talking” to Yovani Gallardo as well, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).

Signing either Kennedy or Gallardo would, of course, require Kansas City to part with its top draft choice. While that’s not as painful as it would be for most teams, as the Royals won’t pick until the end of the first round, it’s obviously necessary for the team to take account of that sacrifice.

The Royals were said to have interest in free agent Wei-Yin Chen, but he just agreed to terms with the Marlins. If nothing else, though, that pursuit showed the seriousness of the Royals’ efforts as well as its willingness to punt a pick. Chen’s signing also showed that there’s still hope that the other top remaining free agents can match the lofty contract expectations that led them to decline qualifying offers.

As things stand, K.C. will run out a staff fronted by Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura. The three leading candidates for the remaining slots are the recently-re-signed Chris Young along with Danny Duffy and Kris Medlen, either of whom could also function as swingmen. There’s some minor league depth, including pitchers like John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang, and Brian Flynn, but it isn’t hard to see why the Royals would want to add another option.

Free Agent Notes: Upton, Cespedes, Kennedy, ChiSox, Cardinals

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Few could’ve predicted that Justin Upton’s market would play out so slowly, writes ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in a lengthy examination of Upton’s journey to the open market. Crasnick notes that Upton is somewhat a victim of borderline unreachable expectations, noting that some view him as a disappointment for being a considerably above-average outfielder as opposed to the generational talent that some hoped for when scouts began raving about him at age 14 and when some outlets compared him to Ken Griffey Jr. as a prospect. Crasnick spoke to executives and Upton’s former skipper, Fredi Gonzalez, with many heaping praise on the 28-year-old — Gonzalez in particular. “He’s been one of my favorite players that I’ve managed in my career,” said Gonzalez. “He shows up at the ballpark every day ready to play. He’s respectful. He knows the game. He’s a great teammate and clubhouse guy. … I’m very surprised that he’s still out there. I think there are a lot of teams missing the boat on him. I really do.” Crasnick also spoke to execs about Upton’s defense, examined his perceived attitude problems as a prospect and also spoke to some in the industry about the potential difficulty of watching his brother struggle alongside him with the Braves and the Padres.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • While many (myself included) have speculated that Chris Davis is holding up the market, to an extent, for the remaining corner bats, ESPN’s Jayson Stark believes that Yoenis Cespedes is holding up the market more than Davis at this point (Twitter link). Some of the slow-moving market for top bats is unrelated to either player, he adds. From my vantage point, with the Orioles focused on Davis but standing as a logical landing spot for either Upton or Cespedes, the argument could be made that Davis is slowing things down. Jeff Todd and I recently discussed as much on the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Jon Heyman tweets that as the starting pitching market continues to narrow, the Royals, Nationals, Astros and Rockies are the most likely landing spots for right-hander Ian Kennedy. However, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding feels differently, tweeting that if the Rockies make a rotation upgrade, it’s going to come via trade rather than a high-priced free agent like Kennedy. The Royals’ spacious park and elite outfield defense would seem, to me, to be an ideal fit for a fly-ball pitcher like Kennedy, while those same fly-ball tendencies and Kennedy’s previous home run troubles make him a poor fit at Coors Field.
  • In his daily Insider-only column (subscription required), ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that there’s a belief around the industry that the White Sox are open to outfield upgrades but don’t want to spend at the levels necessary to land Upton or Cespedes. A second-tier option makes more sense, Olney notes, and while he stops short of speculating on specific names, I’ll add that players such as Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson could be fits for the South Siders. (Gerardo Parra, too, would’ve made sense but agreed to a three-year pact with the Rockies earlier today.)
  • While many Cardinals fans would like to see the Redbirds enter the market for Cespedes, Upton or another high-profile outfield bat, GM John Mozeliak told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch that such a scenario isn’t likely. “I know that some people disagree and want us to do something else, but Matt Adams, having [Brandon] Moss, giving [Randal] Grichuk an opportunity to be the everyday center fielder feels right to us,” said Mozeliak. “If we go out and add an outfielder, where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like compared to the long-term commitment? And honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Langosch writes that St. Louis has been watching the Upton, Cespedes, Fowler and Davis markets from the periphery but would only jump in if the price got to the point where the club felt the opportunity to add value was too good to pass up. Moss, according to Langosch, will get the chance to cement himself as primary option at first base.

Royals Have “Strong Interest” In Ian Kennedy

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The Royals are among the teams with “strong interest” in free agent starter Ian Kennedy, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Kansas City is expected to try to “make [a] push” to land the righty now that Alex Gordon is under contract to return, per the report.

Of course, it’s not immediately clear whether Kennedy sits atop K.C.’s wish list. The club is also looking at Wei-Yin Chen and Yovani Gallardo, Heyman adds.

All of those pitchers declined qualifying offers at the outset of the offseason. Signing any one of them, then, would require the Royals to part with the club’s first overall selection after already giving up the chance to add an extra pick by bringing back Gordon. Of course, fresh off a World Series victory, the choice will not end up being near the top of the first round.

The Royals may also spend some time exploring the possibility of a re-worked deal with backstop Salvador Perez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports adds on Twitter. We’ve heard chatter before that this could be considered, but the enormously team-friendly deal that he’s bound by also doesn’t leave much motivation for a deal. The large-framed, heavily-used backstop can already be controlled through 2019 (his age-29 season) via a series of options. That makes it seem unlikely, at least from an outside perspective, that he’ll be able to achieve much more than a few guaranteed years — likely at the price of surrendering yet more options at the back end.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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In our last MLBTR poll, over 38.6% of MLBTR readers surveyed felt that Alex Gordon would be the next to sign out of a group consisting of the top five players left on MLBTR’s list of this offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  Fast-forward a week and, unsurprisingly, all five players (Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes and Ian Desmond) are all still on the board.

Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth examined the situations surrounding not just those five, but also the next five remaining from MLBTR’s original list — Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.  These five may not carry the high price tags of the top-rated quintet, so it’s possible any of them could come off the board before Gordon and company.  (Then again, it wouldn’t shock me if Chen or Maeda both sign for more than Desmond given how badly Desmond struggled in 2015.  In fact, with the other top free agent pitchers all signed, it’s possible Chen or Maeda could even best Gordon’s eventual contract.)

Also, given the intertwined free agent market, some of the big names may need to be signed before attention can be turned to the next five names.  As Charlie noted, for instance, Fowler’s market may not come into focus until the top-tier outfielders find new homes.  Conversely, Fowler offers a different skillset than Upton, Cespedes or Gordon, so it’s also possible he could be signed before any of them.

The qualifying offer also looms large in this tier of free agents.  Chen, Fowler and Kennedy all rejected the QO, so any new team that signs them will have to give up a draft pick as compensation.  Maeda, obviously, doesn’t have the qualifying offer to worry about coming from Japan, though he has two more obstacles — the extra $20MM posting fee his MLB team will have to pay to the Hiroshima Carp, and the simple fact that Maeda is the most unknown quantity in Major League play.  Kazmir doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, yet that actually may be what’s holding up his signing since multiple teams are showing interest; Kazmir reportedly has several three-year offers in hand but he may be holding out for a team that gives him that guaranteed fourth year.

With these factors in mind, which of the “next five” do you think will be the first to sign a contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

Heyman On Royals’ Pursuit Of Alex Gordon, Rotation Help

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The Royals have been told by Alex Gordon’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Heyman hears that Kansas City has only offered four years, noting that Jim Bowden reported at ESPN that the annual value of said offer is believed to be in the $12-13MM range.

With their chances of retaining Gordon looking slim, the Royals have begun to explore the market for alternatives, writes Heyman, including Denard Span, Gerardo Parra, Austin Jackson and another player who was with Kansas City in 2015 — Alex Rios. Each of those players, with the exception of Parra, is a client of agent Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have negotiated a number of deals in recent seasons. Span, coming off hip surgery, is said to be hosting a showcase for interested on teams on Jan. 8 next month, while Parra reportedly already has three-year offers in hand but hopes to land a fourth year. Jackson and Rios have both been largely absent from the rumor circuit this offseason. Each is coming off a relatively disappointing year, though Jackson was more productive than Rios both at the plate and in the field.

Heyman also discusses Kansas City’s ongoing search for rotation help, noting that while lefty Wei-Yin Chen sits atop the team’s wish list, but they won’t go to six years for him or offer the five-year, $100MM contract that Chen is reportedly seeking. (I’d personally expect Chen and Gordon to ultimately command relatively similar contracts, so it stands to reason that both would be out of the Royals’ price range.) Heyman also mentions Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, each of whom has previously been linked to Kansas City. He also, however, adds Ian Kennedy’s name to the list of players the Royals like.

The 31-year-old Kennedy hasn’t seen his name come up in many rumors this winter. He got off to a dreadful start in 2015, logging a 7.15 ERA through his first eight starts of the season. However, from June 1 moving forward, Kennedy righted the ship and recorded a 3.41 ERA with a 137-to-38 K/BB ratio in 129 1/3 innings across 22 starts. Though many were surprised to see Kennedy reject a qualifying offer — and that factor does figure to impact his market somewhat — he’s made at least 30 starts each season dating back to 2010, averaging 196 innings of 3.88 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in that time. As a fly-ball pitcher that is susceptible to home runs, Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium would seem, on paper, to be an excellent fit for Kennedy. Not only does the stadium have spacious dimensions, Kansas City’s incumbent center fielder, Lorenzo Cain, is among the game’s premier outfield defenders. And Jarrod Dyson, who could see a more regular role in the outfield corners next season, has registered outstanding defensive ratings in his limited role in previous seasons.

Scott Boras On Span, Wieters, Kennedy, Chen

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In what has become an annual tradition at the Winter Meetings, agent Scott Boras held court for all of the reporters in attendance.  MLB Trade Rumors was on hand for the scrum and we’ve got a few of the highlights below:

  • One reporter asked if Boras would be willing to consider a one-year deal for free agent outfielder Denard Span.  Boras flatly rejected that notion and said that he will be gunning for a multi-year contract.  Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) hears from some in the industry that feel Span may have to settle for a one-year deal with incentives due to health concerns.
  • Boras was asked about the decision for Matt Wieters to accept the qualifying offer from the Orioles and he explained that the catcher’s free agent market would have been bogged down too much by the draft pick forfeiture had he tried it.  When asked by MLBTR why he and Ian Kennedy opted to reject the QO, Boras quipped, “Well, someone told me this pitching market was going to be advanced.  I think it was pretty obvious to us at the time that the decision was going to be what it is.”
  • I asked Boras about the market for starter Wei-Yin Chen, who stands as one of the strongest remaining starters available.  Boras characterized his market as “great” and made a fun, agent-slanted case for his client.  “The last two years his ERA is lower against AL East teams than David Price, so that tells you how good a pitcher he is,” Boras said.
  • I also asked Boras about reliever Greg Holland and his unique situation in free agency.  Boras confirmed the widely expected notion that Holland will seek out a two-year deal and he says that “a number” of teams with interest in that type of deal have spoken to him about such a pact.  Boras also said that Holland could return to action in time for the 2016 postseason.  From the outside, one has to wonder if Holland will be able to rebound that quickly after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late September.

Pitching Notes: Lowe, Red Sox, Marlins, O’s, O’Day, Mets, Miller

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Free agent righty Mark Lowe is “in active talks with multiple teams” and could be nearing a decision, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The Mariners have some interest in a reunion, tweets MLB.com’s Greg Johns, though as he notes it’ll take much more than the minor league pact that brought Lowe to Seattle last winter.

Here’s the latest pitching chatter around the league:

  • The Red Sox are receiving interest in starters Wade Miley and Joe Kelly as well as Clay Buchholz, Crasnick reports on Twitter. Boston is prepared to “listen to trade pitches” on their arms. Jon Heyman hears the same and notes that the club is interested in adding relievers. (Twitter link.)
  • Miley is among the pitchers that could be pursued by the Marlins, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. In free agency, Miami’s targets include Ian Kennedy — as we heard earlier today — as well as Yusmeiro Petit, who’d presumably be a swingman option.
  • The Orioles will likely add another pen arm even if they wrap up a deal with Darren O’Day, Crasnick tweets. One possibility is southpaw Tony Sipp, per the report, who figures to draw rather wide interest.
  • Speaking of O’Day, the key point of separation between the Orioles and Nationals has been Baltimore’s willingness to guarantee a fourth year, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. The Nats were offering a better AAV, but only over three years.
  • The Mets are “keeping an eye” on the top of the still-available relief market, per assistant GM John Ricco (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin, on Twitter).
  • Some in the Braves organization believe that the team ought to hold onto Shelby Miller, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. Atlanta is asking both for a young, “impact bat” as well as a “Major League-ready starting pitcher” in trade talks, per the report.

Marlins Notes: Lackey, Gordon, Fernandez

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Here are a few quick notes on the Marlins, all via CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (all Twitter links).

  • The Marlins had interest in John Lackey to upgrade their rotation, Heyman writes. Lackey got two years and $32MM from the Cubs, and the Marlins have interest in a pitcher at around that price. They do have interest in Ian Kennedy, although he might turn out to be too expensive.
  • The Marlins have also had preliminary extension talks with second baseman Dee Gordon, tweets Heyman. They will meet with his agent, Rick Thurman of Beverly Hills Sports Council, at the Winter Meetings. Gordon, a Super Two player, will make a projected $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2016 after leading the NL in hits, batting average and stolen bases (as well as times caught stealing) last season. If he doesn’t agree to a deal, he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2018 campaign.
  • The Marlins do not intend to trade Jose Fernandez and have received only a few calls on him, Heyman says. Marlins exec Michael Hill recently told MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro that the team had not placed their ace on the block.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

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