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J.P. France

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, McKay

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The Royals are entering the 2024 season with elevated expectations after the club spent more than $100MM in free agency this winter on top of a massive 11-year extension for franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. With that influx of free agent talent comes increased competition for spots on the club’s Opening Day roster. That excess of talent is particularly clear in the outfield, where manager Matt Quatraro recently indicated to reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the club’s logjam is likely to result in the club carrying five outfielders on its roster to open the 2024 campaign.

Kansas City signed veteran outfield Hunter Renfroe to be the club’s regular right fielder, and Rogers suggests that glove-first center fielder and former top catching prospect MJ Melendez are the favorites to receive regular playing time on the grass alongside him. That leaves two spots on the bench available for a group that includes Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, and Dairon Blanco. A former top prospect in the Braves farm system, Waters was shipped to the Royals midseason back in 2022 and has since slashed a decent .231/.306/.402 in 130 games with the club. Velazquez, meanwhile, joined the club at last year’s trade deadline in a deal with the Cubs and displayed prodigious power down the stretch with 14 home runs in just 40 games. Blanco, 31 next month, is by far the oldest of the trio but performed well in a part-time role last season, going 24-for-29 on the basepaths while slashing .258/.324/.452 in 69 games that saw him spend time in all three outfield spots.

With the club expecting to carry five outfielders on the roster to open the season, that significantly limits the paths to an Opening Day roster spot for other bench options. Veterans Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson both signed major league deals this past winter and appear locked into utility roles on the bench, and with Melendez now a full-time outfielder the Royals will have to enter the season with Freddy Fermin on the roster as the backup to veteran backstop Salvador Perez. That would seemingly leave little room on the club’s roster for Nick Pratto, the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. The first baseman has 144 big league games under his belt but has yet to establish himself in the majors, slashing just .216/.295/.364 in a combined 527 trips to the plate during that time.

More from around the American League…

  • Astros manager Joe Espada announced to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France will throw bullpen sessions tomorrow. Espada indicated last week that Verlander’s next bullpen would determine not only whether or not he would then progress to live hitting but also his readiness for Opening Day. If Verlander begins the season on the shelf, it’s possible his spot in the rotation could go to France, assuming that the 28-year-old avoids an injured list stint of his own. The righty impressed with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings of work with the big league club last year, almost entirely out of the starting rotation. Should Verlander be healthy enough to make his Opening Day start, France would likely be left to compete for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with the likes of Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak.
  • Rays southpaw Brendan McKay made his first professional appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season today, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to the lefty following the appearance. Per Topkin, McKay expressed satisfaction with his progress, indicating that his curveball is “getting better” while his fastball, which Topkin adds sat at 90 while touching 91, is “in a good spot” to gain more velocity going forward. McKay typically sat at 94 with his heater when he last pitched in the majors in 2019, though the former top prospect and fourth-overall pick of the 2017 draft has dealt with both Tommy John surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since then. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, it’s easy to imagine McKay impacting the club’s pitching staff at some point this season if he can remain healthy.

Astros Notes: Verlander, France, Framber, Bullpen

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Astros camp kicked off last week with the revelation that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France were both slightly behind schedule due to shoulder troubles. Both, however, have been progressing nicely over the past week-plus. Verlander tossed a bullpen session today, after which manager Joe Espada told reporters he’s “encouraged” with his ace’s progression from that shoulder issue (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). France, meanwhile, pitched off a mound Wednesday — his first time doing so after being limited to flat ground work at the beginning of camp (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

It’s a positive step for both pitchers, though the team still hasn’t declared with any certainty that both players will be ready for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, Verlander would be the presumptive favorite to start Opening Day. France, meanwhile, figures to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation after impressing as a 28-year-old rookie in 2023. Houston manager Joe Espada has raised the possibility of a six-man rotation this year, which would allow France to continue starting alongside Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy. That’s not set in stone at this point and will of course be dependent on how both righties continue to progress.

On the topic of Valdez, Chandler Rome of the Athletic wrote earlier this week that the left-hander says he has not yet received any sort of extension offer from the team this winter. Houston general manager Dana Brown listed Valdez as an extension target last offseason not long after being hired, and while the team and Valdez discussed parameters last spring, there was a sufficient enough gap that no deal was reached.

Valdez, 30, is controllable through the 2025 season. He and the Astros agreed to a $12.1MM salary for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in doing so. He’s finished ninth or better on each of the past two Cy Young ballots and touts a 3.13 ERA, a 23.5% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 63% ground-ball rate in 534 regular season innings, dating back to 2021. Valdez’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors earlier in the winter, but a deal never seemed especially likely and now feels even less plausible with Verlander and France behind schedule. If anything, Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to constantly be adding to his pitching depth.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, the Astros are set for an unusual amount of competition in the bullpen this spring, Kawahara writes in a full column. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are locked into late-inning roles, and Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM contract (covering the 2023-25 seasons) assures him a spot as well. But the Astros lost Phil Maton and Hector Neris to free agency already, and they don’t seem especially likely to re-sign Ryne Stanek, either. They’ll also be without Kendall Graveman, who’ll miss the season due to shoulder surgery.

Among the options to step into prominent bullpen roles are righties Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Dylan Coleman, Shawn Dubin, Seth Martinez, Forrest Whitley and Oliver Ortega. All are on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Parker Mushinski and Bennett Sousa. Righty Wander Suero is the most experienced non-roster invitee in camp.

Brown, the team’s general manager, tells Kawahara that the team will “take a close look” at Coleman in particular. Both Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller praised Coleman’s raw stuff and cited a belief that the Astros can get him back to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.78 ERA, fanned nearly a quarter of his opponents and sat just shy of 98 mph with his heater. The 2023 season was a disaster for Coleman, however, as he posted an 8.84 ERA and walked 19 batters in 18 1/3 innings with Kansas City.

Sousa, too, will get strong consideration. Brown noted to Kawahara that if he’d been acquired prior to the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline last year, he’d likely have been on Houston’s playoff rosters. Espada indicated that he doesn’t feel compelled to have a second lefty in the ’pen beyond Hader and is focused primarily on just carrying the best group the team has, regardless of handedness. Still, Sousa posted interesting strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates in a small sample last season (29.4%, 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively) and has fanned nearly a third of his career opponents in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

Justin Verlander, J.P. France Behind Schedule Due To Shoulder Issues

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Astros right-hander Justin Verlander is a few weeks behind his normal Spring Training schedule due to a shoulder issue. He spoke to members of the media about it today, with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relaying video on X of the veteran discussing the situation. General manager Dana Brown also relayed that righty J.P. France is dealing with shoulder inflammation, though Brown isn’t especially worried since both pitchers are playing catch. “If they were shut down, it would be more concerning,” Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

“I’m a little bit behind schedule right now, had a little hiccup early on that’s resolved itself but I have to be really cautious with how I’m building up,” Verlander said. “I guess my body doesn’t respond the same at 40 as it does at 25. So, you know, I’m a couple weeks behind.” When asked to elaborate on the hiccup, he continued: “When I first started playing catch, I usually shut it down for a while. This time, when I shut it down and picked the ball back up, my shoulder didn’t feel so great, so kind of had to take a step back and kind of just really be diligent about my buildup.” When asked about Opening Day, he said it would depend on how things go in the next few weeks.

It seems like the concern is fairly minor at this point, though it’s less than ideal for the club that a couple members of its rotation mix are already dealing with issues just as camp is opening. The Astros are already set to open the season with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García on the injured list, with both of those pitchers having undergone significant surgeries last year. Brown told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that those two guys are on track for returns in the second half, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Without McCullers or García, Houston’s rotation mix would project to be Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown, with one spot available for someone like France, José Urquidy or Brandon Bielak. If Verlander and/or France end up requiring a stint on the injured list to start the year, everyone would be moved up a peg or two on the chart.

Verlander, who turns 41 next week, also dealt with a shoulder issue last spring while with the Mets. At the end of March, he was placed on the IL with a teres major strain and didn’t make his season debut until May. He was ultimately able to make 27 starts on the year between the Mets and Astros after a midseason trade, but with diminished stuff from his 2022 Cy Young-winning year. His ERA went from 1.75 to 3.22 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 21.5% with the velo on all his pitches slightly lower as well. He did seem to get better as the season went along, however, with a 3.60 ERA and 19.7% strikeout rate in the first half compared to a 2.92 ERA and 23% strikeout rate in the second.

France, 29 in April, tossed 136 1/3 innings last year with a 3.83 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He’s obviously less essential to the club’s rotation than Verlander, not even guaranteed a roster spot since he has options. But every club has to deal with injuries and reach into their depth at some point during the year. He would have been a candidate to step up if Verlander needed to miss time but that could be in jeopardy if France is himself delayed.

Brown has frequently stated that he’s always looking to add pitching and made similar comments today, with video relayed by McTaggart. “I’m always in the business of trying to add starter depth. I think the season, like I said before, it’s 162 games. If you get a situation where you can trade for a starter or if you can sign a starter, I think you should do it if it makes sense budget wise and all that. But at the end of the day, I’m always in the market for pitching. I’ve said that since day one. I don’t think you can have enough pitching in 162 games.”

The Astros are in unprecedented territory in terms of their payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their highest Opening Day payroll was $188MM in 2021. Roster Resource pegs them at $240MM for this year and also has their competitive balance tax figure at $255MM. They have never paid the tax before, as they only time they went over was in 2020, when the payments were waived in the shortened season. This year’s line is $237MM, so they’re already well over.

If the club decides they need reinforcements, there are plenty of names still available in free agency. That includes marquee guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery but also more affordable names like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Given the club’s payroll and the minor nature of the injuries, it doesn’t seem likely that the club will suddenly go out and splurge, but it will be a situation worth monitoring if another pitcher suffers an injury or a setback is suffered by Verlander or France. Despite Brown’s assertion that he’s always looking for starting depth, they haven’t signed any veterans to minor league deals so could perhaps look to add some non-roster guys in the coming days.

AL Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Murphy, Tigers

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The Astros figure to add injured right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back into their rotation mix in 2024, though The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that, with neither player expected to be ready for Opening Day next season, rookie right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown could have opportunities to crack the rotation again headed into Spring Training. The club figures to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy locked into four spots in the rotation, but that would leave an opening for either France or Brown, with the possibility of both if the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation to open the season.

That being said, Rome also suggests other roles for France and Brown are possible next season. In addition to noting that the Astros would benefit from the addition of a veteran start who could provide “stability” to a rotation that suffered from uneven performances in 2023, Rome also puts forth that right-hander Spencer Arrighetti could factor into the club’s rotation mix as soon as the start of next season. Arighetti, the club’s #3 prospect and top pitching prospect per MLB Pipeline, posted a 4.40 ERA in 124 2/3 innings of work split between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, his age-23 campaign.

With so many possible moving pieces, it’s likely that both Brown and France will be used in roles beyond the starting rotation, at least at some point during the 2024 season. France, in particular, is suggested by Rome as a likely candidate for a swing role that would see him move both in and out of the club’s rotation mix as necessary throughout the year. Brown, on the other hand, seems to have a firmer grip on a potential rotation spot, though Rome adds that Brown’s struggles later in the season (including a 6.72 ERA in his final 18 appearances) highlighted the work Brown still has left to do before he can be the mid-rotation arm the Astros hope he can become.

More from the American League…

  • The Red Sox utilized a catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023 to decent effect, with Wong in particular flashing quality glovework behind the plate as the club’s regular starter. Though MassLive’s Chris Cotillo indicates that an addition behind the plate isn’t a priority for Boston after adding top prospect Kyle Teel with their first-round pick in the 2023 draft, he does make note of the fact that Boston was aggressive in their attempts to upgrade behind the plate last offseason. Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello’s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.
  • Although the Tigers have one clear big league catching option in Jake Rogers, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News suggests that finding a suitable backup for Rogers is a primary question for the club as they head into the offseason. While McCosky notes that the club holds a $3.5MM team option over Carson Kelly, he adds that there’s “no indication” as to whether or not the club will ultimately pick up that option. If Kelly is not retained, the club’s top options to back up Rogers internally would be Dillon Dingler and Donny Sands. Dingler enjoyed something of a breakout season at age 24 this year slashing .256/.361/.478 across three levels of the minors, though his .202/.266/.384 showing in 26 games at the Triple-A level left something to be desired. Sands, meanwhile, struggled to a .230/.318/.360 slash line alongside defensive struggles in limited action last season but has a solid offensive track record at Triple-A from his time with the Yankees and Phillies. Per McCosky, the decision on Kelly’s option could come down to the readiness of Dingler for a major league role in 2024.

Astros Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Rotation

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The Astros and right fielder Kyle Tucker discussed a long-term contract in the offseason and into spring training, but no deal was reached by the time the season got underway, and general manager Dana Brown noted at the time that negotiations were “paused” for the time being. Brown piqued the fan base’s interest in his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show that he’s optimistic the two sides will work out a deal and that Tucker will spend his career with the Astros. He later clarified, however, that talks have yet to resume since being put on hold (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

The 26-year-old Tucker has delivered in spades both on his lofty draft status (No. 5 overall in 2015) and his top-prospect billing. Already a two-time All-Star and a 2022 Gold Glove winner, he’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his exceptional young career. In 113 games and 481 plate appearances, Tucker has slashed .296/.377/.517 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 24 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). He’s just one steal shy of last year’s career-high mark, and he’s on pace for his third consecutive 30-homer season. This year’s 11.6% walk rate is easily a career-high mark, while his 12.9% strikeout rate is both a personal low and the ninth-lowest mark among all qualified big league hitters.

Tucker entered the 2023 season with 3.079 years of big league service and will finish at 4.079, leaving him arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. Given his age, draft/prospect pedigree and general excellence to date, there’s little reason to expect any sort of downturn in the near future. Were Tucker to naturally reach free agency by accruing six years of MLB service, he’d do so heading into his age-29 season — and likely in position to command a contract in excess of $200MM.

The Astros haven’t necessarily shied away from large payroll commitments, but they’ve typically preferred to mitigate the length of any high-priced deals. Jose Altuve’s extension promised him five years and $151MM on top of the remaining two years and $12.5MM on his prior contract. Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract is the longest handed out under owner Jim Crane. That deal covered all three of Alvarez’s arbitration seasons and three would-be free agent years. Tucker is already playing his first arb year on a $5MM salary and will be due a substantial raise this offseason.

Any extension for Tucker would presumably need to top Alvarez’s deal by a good margin — not only in terms of overall guarantee but in terms of length. The six-year term Alvarez landed would cover Tucker’s age-27 through age-32 seasons and set him up for free agency in advance of his age-33 season. It stands to reason that a player of his caliber would more likely be seeking a deal of eight-plus years in length, particularly now that he’s only two seasons removed from hitting the open market in prime position for a mega-deal.

For now, Brown stressed that the focus is squarely on attempting to overtake the Rangers for the lead in the American League West and to engineer another deep postseason run. Tucker will play a focal part of those efforts, of course, but the ’Stros were dealt some potentially difficult news regarding another key contributor following last night’s game. Manager Dusty Baker told reporters this morning that first baseman Jose Abreu reported discomfort in his lower back following yesterday’s game (Twitter link via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated further this weekend.

Abreu’s first season in Houston has been a forgettable one overall, but the former Rookie of the Year and MVP looked to be rediscovering his form earlier in the summer. After floundering to a .211/.276/.260 slash through his first two months, Abreu came roaring back with a .288/.330/.484 output over his next 200 plate appearances. While not quite his peak form, that was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and Abreu looked well on his way to quieting concerns brought about by his sluggish start to the season.

Unfortunately, his production has cratered once again. Abreu has just three hits in his past 39 trips to the plate and has fanned at an uncharacteristic 28.2% clip in that time. It’s unclear how long his back has been ailing, but the recent downturn after an impressive performance in June and July could well be related to the apparent injury with which he’s dealing. The season-long numbers are still ugly (.234/.291/.343), but losing the June/July version of Abreu is a notable hit to any lineup.

Of course, for as many potent bats as the Houston lineup has featured in recent years, elite starting pitching has been a hallmark of Astros clubs throughout their recent peak. The trade deadline return of Justin Verlander should only help to continue that legacy, but the reacquisition of Verlander won’t necessarily cost someone his spot on the starting staff.

Trezza writes that the Astros are likely to move to a six-man rotation, at least for the time being, keeping rookie right-hander J.P. France in the mix. Calling baseball an “earn-it business,” Baker emphasized that France has indeed earned his spot and will stay on turn moving forward.

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. The 28-year-old France has turned in 95 innings of 2.75 ERA ball since making his big league debut earlier this season, emerging as a godsend in the wake of season-ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. France has had some modest fortune on balls in play (.277 BABIP) and probably can’t continue stranding 81% of his baserunners — league average is 72% — but he’s looked the part of a solid big league starter even when accounting for some potential regression.

Keeping France in the rotation will have other benefits beyond his own performance. Hunter Brown is nearing last year’s total workload with seven weeks of the season yet to play out. Jose Urquidy just returned from a months-long absence due to a shoulder injury. Cristian Javier has been pitching better of late, but he hit a wall midsummer and had his spot in the rotation skipped heading into the All-Star break. Keeping France on the starting staff alongside Verlander, Brown, Javier, Urquidy and Framber Valdez will help the Astros to manage Brown’s workload and exercise caution, as necessary, with Urquidy and Javier.

Astros Promote J.P. France

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TODAY: France was officially called up, with the Astros sending right-hander Ronel Blanco to Triple-A in the corresponding move.

MAY 5: The Astros are calling up right-hander J.P. France, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26. He is expected to start Saturday’s game against the Mariners, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic, which will be his major league debut. He’s on the 40-man roster but will require a corresponding move to get him on the active roster.

Now 28, France was selected by the Astros in the 14th round of the 2018 draft and signed for a $1K bonus. He’s since outperformed that modest draft position with some strong work as a swingman in the minors. In 2021, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, throwing 114 innings over 18 starts and seven relief appearances. He posted a 3.79 ERA with a strong 32.2% strikeout rate but a 10.7% walk rate. Last year, he was back in the swing role but exclusively in Triple-A. He made 15 starts and 19 relief appearances, posting a 3.90 ERA in 110 2/3 innings. He struck out 28.3% of batters faced but walked 10.6% of them.

He would have been eligible to be selected in the most recent Rule 5 draft, but the Astros added him to their roster in November to ensure that didn’t happen. Baseball America then put him on their list of top 30 prospects in the organization for the first time, giving him the #21 slot coming into this year. Their report notes that he doesn’t have overpowering stuff but relies on unpredictability, willing to throw any of his five pitches at any time to keep hitters off balance.

He’s been back in Triple-A to start this year, with three starts and a couple relief appearances. The walks are still an issue, coming in at a 14.3% clip so far this year, but he’s also struck out 33.8% of opponents and gotten grounders on 53.8% of balls in play for a 2.33 ERA.

The Astros came into the year with a strong rotation, even while allowing Justin Verlander to depart for the Mets. The on-paper group would have been Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy. Unfortunately, McCullers was shut down in spring with arm soreness and still doesn’t seem close to a return, not having begun a rehab assignment yet. That pushed the top depth starter, Hunter Brown, into the rotation to start the year. More recently, the club saw both Garcia and Urquidy hit the injured list in the past week, further depleting the rotation.

The timelines on those recent injuries are still a little murky but the club will have to proceed for at least a couple weeks with just Valdez, Javier and Brown remaining from their season opening rotation. France will come up and make at least one start to help out. Brandon Bielak is also with the club and threw 75 pitches of long relief on Monday, perhaps allowing him to factor in at some point. Forrest Whitley and Shawn Dubin are also on the 40-man and could be options as well.

The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

Astros Select J.P. France

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The Astros announced this evening they’ve selected right-hander J.P. France onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

A 14th-round pick from Mississippi State in the 2018 draft, France spent all of this year at Triple-A Sugar Land. He worked in a swing capacity for the Space Cowboys, starting 15 of his 34 outings. France pitched to a 3.90 ERA across 110 2/3 innings, punching out an above-average 28.3% of opponents against a slightly elevated 10.6% walk rate.

France turns 28 years old in April, putting him on the older side for a prospect. However, that he’s carved out a 40-man roster spot clearly indicates the Astros view him as a viable rotation or long relief depth option going into next season. Houston already has one of the league’s top rotations — even with Justin Verlander in free agency — but France could return to Sugar Land to provide some cover against injuries in the starting staff.

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