Heyman On Pagan, Braves, Pujols, Madson
Terry Ryan is officially the interim general manager of the Twins, but Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the longtime GM is recharged and may stay a while (Twitter link). Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors from SI.com:
- The Mets have discussed Angel Pagan as a non-tender candidate, but they intend to offer him arbitration, according to Heyman (on Twitter). MLBTR projects a $4.7MM salary for the center fielder in 2012.
- Meanwhile, Chris Capuano is looking for a two-year deal, but the Mets prefer one-year bargains (Twitter link).
- The Braves are looking for a Zack Greinke-like return in a deal for Jair Jurrjens, according to Heyman (on Twitter). The Royals obtained Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt last offseason.
- Twins executive Mike Radcliff and Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer weren’t that interested in the Orioles’ GM job, according to Heyman. The Orioles requested permission to interview them both, but the Twins denied the request and the Orioles hired Dan Duquette before setting anything up with Oppenheimer.
- It's believed that Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava got a raise to stay in Toronto, according to Heyman.
- It’s hard to tell Boston’s list of managerial candidates apart from the one the Cubs have, as Heyman explains.
- It doesn’t appear that the Cardinals will be able to boost their nine-year, $200MM offer to Albert Pujols by much.
- Ryan Madson is drawing lots of interest and the Red Sox, Phillies, Nationals, Rangers and Marlins are believed to be interested.
- C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt are drawing lots of interest, as expected.
- Heyman hears that Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen is pushing for Prince Fielder or Pujols. The Marlins have also expressed early interest in Jose Reyes.
East Notes: Thome, Braves, Red Sox, O’s
The Phillies made one of the first notable signings of the offseason the other day, inking Jim Thome to a one-year deal. Here's some more on Thome and the rest of the game's Eastern division teams…
- Thome's deal with the Phillies allows him to earn an additional $250K based on his plate appearances, according to this tweet from ESPN's Jerry Cracnick. Thome will earn $50K for reaching 175, 200, 225, 250, and 275 plate appearances, making his contract potentially worth $1.5MM.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the Braves would be open to trading anyone for the right price, following their late season collapse. Rosenthal also notes that Atlanta tried to acquire Lorenzo Cain from both the Brewers and Royals last offseason, offering up Brandon Beachy. They also tried for a swap of Jair Jurrjens and Brett Lawrie with Milwaukee, but were unsuccessful.
- WEEI.com's Arielle Aronson wonders if the Red Sox will pursue Martin Prado as an alternative if Michael Cuddyer signs elsewhere. The Phillies are thought to be big players in the Cuddyer sweepstakes.
- Steve Gould of the Baltimore Sun offers up his thoughts on how free agents Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Pena could or couldn't fit the Orioles.
Olney’s Latest: Cuddyer, Thome, O’s, Jurrjens
In today's Insider-only blog post, ESPN's Buster Olney explained how Michael Cuddyer's versatility makes him a great fit for many teams, including the Phillies. Last night we learned that Philadelphia is seriously pursuing the long-time Twin. Here's the rest of Olney's hot stove talk…
- Jim Thome has told friends that he could use the offseason to prepare himself to play first base once or twice a week next year. Thome agreed to a one-year deal to rejoin the Phillies yesterday, and Ryan Howard could miss the start of the season after rupturing his Achillies.
- Olney knows of about "a dozen assistant-level executives" that have passed on interviewing for the Orioles' still vacant GM job.
- Rival executives have told Olney that Jair Jurrjens' trade value was probably at its highest this past July (Twitter link). The Braves are reportedly open to moving Jurrjens, as well as Martin Prado.
- In another tweet, Olney adds that Jurrjens still has plenty of trade value. He figures the right-hander would be among the most coveted free agent starters if he was on the open market.
Jurrjens Talks Stall Between Royals And Braves
Yesterday we learned that the Braves are open to moving Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado, and that they've already had trade talks with the Royals. Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star reports that talks have stalled however, likely because Kansas City does not want to include top prospect Wil Myers in the deal.
Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal Constitution says (on Twitter) that Atlanta is not actively shopping Jurrjens and Prado, but they will listen to offers for any player on their roster without ten-and-five no-trade protection. Dutton says the Braves offered the Royals a two-for-two deal: Jurrjens and Prado for Myers and Lorenzo Cain. Kansas City is open to moving Cain, he added. That deal would add close to $10MM to the Royals' payroll next season, eating up a big chunk of what they have available to spend this offseason according to Dutton. The Braves are trying to unload some salary, which they managed to do earlier in the week by trading Derek Lowe to the Indians.
Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports notes (on Twitter) that it shouldn't be tough for Atlanta to find a taker for Prado if they're really motivated to move him. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Cardinals, and Dodgers could all use an upgrade at second base. Troy Renck of The Denver Post speculates (on Twitter) that the Rockies could get involved, possibly using Dexter Fowler or Charlie Blackmon as trade bait. Both outfielders are from Georgia.
Braves Open To Trading Jurrjens, Prado
The Braves have told some teams they would be willing to move Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado in a trade, a Major League source tells MLB.com's Mark Bowman. Atlanta is known to be looking for a power-hitting outfielder and possibly a new shortstop, so either could be acquired in a Jurrjens/Prado trade, or at the very least the Braves could pick up some salary relief — both Jurrjens and Prado are arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter.
The Braves and Royals have already discussed a Jurrjens trade, and the Braves have an interest in minor league outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers, amongst several other prospects in K.C.'s deep farm system. The Royals are known to be targeting veteran starting pitching on the trade market this winter so the two sides would seem like a fit as trading partners. As Bowman notes, Cain could be seen by the Braves as a future center field option if Michael Bourn isn't signed to an extension.
Jurrjens was an All-Star in 2011, though the right-hander struggled badly (a 5.88 ERA) in the second half of the season and spent time on the DL with a knee injury. While Jurrjens' health is a question mark, Myers also took a minor step back (a .745 OPS in Double-A) in 2011 after being ranked as the 10th-best prospect in the sport in Baseball America's preseason rankings. Myers is still just 20, however, and was converted to the outfield this year after spending his first two pro seasons as a catcher.
After an impressive 2010 season that saw him finish ninth in NL MVP voting, Prado took a step back in 2011, hitting .260/.302/.385 as Atlanta's everyday left fielder. Prado's ability to play left, third, first and second base would make him an intriguing trade possibility for a number of teams, especially since he could be available at a somewhat buy-low price.
Atlanta’s Starting Pitching Depth
The Braves blew a late-inning lead before losing a painful game to the Phillies tonight, but if Atlanta goes on to win in the playoffs this year, their bullpen will probably be a major reason for their success. The Braves’ late inning trio of Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel is as good as it gets.
Health permitting, the three relievers figure to return to Atlanta in 2012, but the same can’t necessarily be said for the Braves’ starting corps. Every one of the eight pitchers who has started a game for the Braves in 2011 is under team control next year and with a trio of MLB-ready arms entering the discussion for big league rotation spots, it won’t be surprising if the Braves hear an offer or two for their surplus arms.
Before we get too carried away with assumptions about health, it’s important to note that two Braves starters are on the disabled list and another one is dealing with an injury. Kris Medlen hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery last August and won’t be ready before 2012. Tommy Hanson is also on the disabled list (shoulder) and Jair Jurrjens (knee) is banged up as well.
Despite those injuries, the Braves have a full rotation: Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Brandon Beachy (pictured), Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Top prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Julio Teheran (who will start one of tomorrow’s games) also represent viable rotation options for manager Fredi Gonzalez.
All told, the Braves have nine options. Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy and Minor have all had extended looks in the rotation this year, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino spent most of the 2011 season in the minors and Medlen, a wild card heading into 2012, hasn’t pitched at all.
Not only do the Braves have nine pitchers around in 2012, most of them are under team control in 2013 (Lowe’s contract expires after next season and the Braves have a $9MM club option for Hudson in ’13). This group isn’t going anywhere.
As unusual as it is for a team to have too much pitching, this Braves team may find themselves with extra arms over the winter. Unlike most teams, however, the Braves already have the main components of their roster in place for 2012. They won’t have many obvious holes to address over the winter.
Yet the Braves aren’t set at every position – shortstop Alex Gonzalez hits free agency and Martin Prado hasn't shown the on-base skills or power you'd expect from a left fielder. If the Braves decide not to retain the slick-fielding Gonzalez and opt to move Prado back into a utility role, they could have holes at shortstop and left field (assuming they don’t view Jose Constanza as a permanent solution).
The Braves are a playoff-caliber team and they seem poised to contend in 2012, but significant needs could emerge within a month or two. Wren avoided last year's free agent frenzy and if he hopes to do the same this offseason without ignoring possible weaknesses, he could make the organization's pitching depth available in trades.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Olney On Deadline Plans For NL Teams
The trade market is still developing at this point in the season, but it’s starting to take shape. Buster Olney outlines the plans for National League teams in a highly recommended insider-only piece at ESPN.com. Here are the details:
- The Dodgers can’t make long-term investments in young stars like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Clayton Kershaw because of their uncertain financial status. The Los Angeles front office is now gathering information about some of their trade candidates and taking calls on some players. No teams have called on Jamey Carroll yet, though the Rockies are interested.
- James Loney and Casey Blake have next to no trade value, as Olney explains.
- No team has called about Jose Reyes, who won’t be traded for anything less than a top prospect and a solid secondary prospect.
- Rival executives expect the Phillies to acquire proven veterans this summer.
- Though the Astros will listen to offers on Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez, they will be asking a lot for them.
- The Braves are checking out available hitters. Some rival executives have speculated on the possibility that the Braves will consider trading Jair Jurrjens, whose stock has never been higher.
- Some rival executives think B.J. Upton will be a borderline non-tender candidate this offseason. Upton will earn a raise from $4.825MM next year and he currently has a .223/.308/.396 line with 20 steals. I can’t envision the Rays non-tendering Upton, who would presumably have trade value if Tampa made him available.
- The Padres have told teams that they’re ready to take offers for Heath Bell and Mike Adams. Rival clubs believe Adams will be harder to obtain than Ryan Ludwick.
- The Rockies will wait a few weeks before deciding whether to buy or sell.
- The Giants are looking for catching help and Ramon Hernandez is a possible upgrade, as I explained earlier in the week.
- The Reds are concerned about starting pitching and will consider making moves for upgrades at left field or shortstop. Though rival teams don’t expect Reyes to end up in Cincinnati, GM Walt Jocketty may be aggressive enough to make a deal happen.
- GM Jim Hendry says there won’t be a fire sale, but the Cubs are “open for business,” Olney reports. Jeff Baker and Kerry Wood are “among the most coveted players in the trade market,” since they’re cheap and useful. Rival executives have mixed opinions about Carlos Pena, who is powerful but streaky.
- Wood is near the top of Arizona’s list of targets.
- The 40-39 Pirates will look for modest ways to improve and won’t be selling.
Starting Pitchers Linked Entering 2011
Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley and John Danks all went to arbitration for the first time before last season and all settled for contracts in the $3-4MM range. The four pitchers went to arbitration again this offseason and settled for contracts within the $5.75-$6.3MM range. A year from now, they will become points of reference for the class of pitchers just behind them (those currently entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible players). Here's a list of pitchers who could be compared to the quartet above after the 2011 season:
- Mike Pelfrey, $3.925MM in 2011 - Pelfrey already has a tremendous amount of big league experience and a fourth consecutive season of 30-plus starts could push his 2012 asking price past the $6.28MM Billingsley will earn in 2011, especially considering Pelfrey's high 2011 salary. Pelfrey doesn't have particularly impressive strikeout numbers or ERAs, however, which will help the Mets keep the right-hander's salary in check.
- Dallas Braden, $3.35MM in 2011 - Garza was working from the same base salary in 2010 and he earned a $2.6MM raise after logging 204 2/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in the AL East with a 2.4 K/BB ratio. If Braden wants to match Garza's raise, he'll have to earn it with another big year.
- Jair Jurrjens, $3.25MM in 2011 - Jurrjens is well-positioned to ask for a salary in the $6MM range next year if he returns to his 2008-09 level of productivity.
Guthrie, Garza, Billingsley and Danks all had relatively healthy, productive seasons in 2010, which kept their 2011 salaries within a $600K range. A poor performance would have disrupted the pattern and the same applies to this year's class. They have to pitch well and stay healthy to earn raises to the $6MM range. Meanwhile, others will have the chance to prove they belong in the same discussion as Pelfrey, Jurrjens and Braden if they have big years.
- Phil Hughes, $2.7MM in 2011 - Hughes, who has just one full season as a Major League starter, is starting from a lower base salary than the others, so he'd likely need a standout season to approach $6MM in 2012.
- Brandon Morrow, $2.3MM in 2011 - Morrow doesn't have the bulk numbers his peers do, so he's at a disadvantage. But he has flashed dominant stuff and if he continues pitching the way he did from June on last year, he could justify asking for a larger-than-usual raise.
Other starters, including Edinson Volquez and Kevin Slowey, are also entering their first seasons as arbitration eligible pitchers, but raises to the $6MM range seem extremely improbable given their current salaries and career numbers. The same goes for super two players Armando Galarraga, Kyle Kendrick, Ross Ohlendorf and Luke Hochevar.
Players To Avoid Arbitration: Tuesday
Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. The sides will then settle on a salary between the team's proposed number and the player's proposed number or go to an arbitration hearing. Arbitration eligible players are under team control, so the clubs don't risk losing them – it's a question of how much the players will earn.
Yesterday, 11 players avoided arbitration. We could see just as many agreements trickle in today and we'll keep you posted on them right here and with our Arb Tracker. The latest updates will be at the top of the post:
- The Angels have agreed to terms with Reggie Willits and Howie Kendrick, tweets Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times. Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register tweets that Kendrick will earn $3.3MM, Willits $775K (on Twitter).
- The Giants agreed to terms with Santiago Casilla on a one-year deal worth $1.3MM with incentives, according to ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas (on Twitter). The team also announced that they avoided arb with Jonathan Sanchez and Ramon Ramirez (on Twitter). Sanchez will earn $4.8MM with incentives tweets Hank Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle while Ramirez will earn $1.65MM according to Janie McCauley of The Canadian Press.
- The Braves agreed to terms with Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman (on Twitter). Moylan gets $2MM, O'Flaherty gets $895K according to Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed to terms with Brandon League, David Aardsma and Jason Vargas, the team announced. Aardsma will earn $4.5MM with plenty of incentives, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times (plus Twitter link).
- The Rangers agreed to terms with C.J. Wilson and Nelson Cruz, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan (Twitter links). Cruz gets $3.65MM, and Wilson gets $7.05MM with a chance to earn another $100K according to his agent Bob Garber, via email.
Braves Rumors: Burrell, Upton, Jurrjens, Vazquez
The Braves’ main offseason goal is to add at least one outfielder and it seems like they’ll acquire one via trade, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Here’s the latest on the Braves’ search for an outfielder plus other hot stove notes:
- The Braves appear to have shown interest in Pat Burrell, but he may be too expensive for Atlanta. One reason Burrell fits in Atlanta: he’s right-handed and the Braves are looking to complement the team’s lefty-heavy lineup.
- B.J. Upton may be available, but the Braves don’t seem interested in taking a chance on the Rays center fielder.
- The Braves will have a better idea of their spending power once they determine whether they can trade Kenshin Kawakami. Multiple Japanese teams showed interest in the right-hander earlier in the offseason.
- Not surprisingly, the Braves seem reluctant to consider trading Jair Jurrjens.
- Javier Vazquez will become a target if they need to fill a rotation spot. Vazquez excelled in Atlanta in 2009, but the Braves already have Jurrjens, Kawakami, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe and Mike Minor.