Jake Arrieta

Pitching Notes: Arrieta, Bumgarner, Kopech, Smyly, Angels, Holland

By Jeff Todd | March 16, 2017 at 11:11am CDT

While there’s no evidence of progress between the Cubs and Jake Arrieta on a new contract, the righty provided some interesting thoughts on his outlook to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Arrieta says he believes he may be able to land “a six- or seven-year deal” when he does sign, whether that’s with Chicago or another organization via free agency. And the 31-year-old adds that he’s looking ahead to a lengthy career, saying: “I feel very confident I can pitch until I’m 40. I do everything possible to make sure I’m healthy and durable.” Arrieta isn’t putting any time restrictions on talks with his current team, telling Heyman he’d consider offers at any time while also noting that he doesn’t want his contract situation to distract from the season to come.

Arrieta stands to play an important role in next year’s free-agent market. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently listed him as the top pending free agent in his first power ranking of next winter’s crop of open-market talent, with three other high-end hurlers not far behind. Here’s more on a few pitching situations from around the game:

Another important potential extension scenario is still open out west, where the Giants and ace Madison Bumgarner have three years to consider another long-term pact. As Heyman writes, there’s nothing new to report at this point. And that’s fine with Bumgarner, who says it’s “not really up to me” when talks will get underway in earnest. “Whenever the time comes, it’ll be a conversation held in private,” he says. The star southpaw says he’s comfortable pitching under his previous extension for the time being, explaining that he has no regrets. After all, he acknowledges, both he and the organization took a risk in inking that pact.
We could be talking about White Sox phenom Michael Kopech in similar terms one day if he accomplishes his personal goals, which he discusses at length in an interesting piece from Scott Miller of Bleacher Report. Kopech tells Miller that he has his sights set on throwing harder than any pitcher ever has — he’s certainly already within range — while noting that his priority is “to be a dominant pitcher” regardless of the radar gun readings. Chicago fans who want to learn about one of the organization’s prized new prospects will want to give the post a full read.
Mariners brass probably felt a mix of emotions as last night’s USA-Venezuela WBC matchup got underway, but as MLB.com’s Greg Johns writes, it ended up going quite well for the organization. Long-time staff ace Felix Hernandez was excellent, but it was new lefty Drew Smyly who opened eyes with his performance. The 27-year-old southpaw notched eight strikeouts against a potent Venezuela lineup over 4 2/3 strong frames, allowing only one unearned run. And he topped out at over 94 mph with his fastball, setting a new personal high-water mark in that regard.
The Angels are still sorting through their rotation plans for the season, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. Righties Matt Shoemaker and Garrett Richards appear to be vying for the Opening Day nod, with no signals as yet as to who’ll take the honors. The primary concern, of course, will be ensuring that each is prepared for a fully healthy campaign after their respective health scares in 2016. As Fletcher explains, there’s still some uncertainty with the rest of the staff. Ricky Nolasco and Jesse Chavez appear to be on track to secure rotation jobs, though it’s not yet clear whether southpaw Tyler Skaggs will be ready to roll at the start of the season given the “shoulder fatigue” he has experienced.
Turning to an interesting pen situation, the Rockies liked what they saw out of righty Greg Holland yesterday, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. The one-time ace reliever, who’s working back from Tommy John surgery, returned to competitive mound action for the first time with a 95 mph heater and effective breaking offerings. While the three-up, three-down frame came against minor-league opposition, the outing represented an important step for Holland as he seeks to reestablish his health and once-dominating stuff. That leaves him on track to make six or eight Cactus League outings, Groke writes, though he won’t take the hill again until the weekend. While the team’s plans for the ninth inning remain unresolved at this point, Groke suggests that it’s likely Holland will receive the closer’s nod over Adam Ottavino.

Heyman’s Latest: Nationals, Alvarez, Cubs, CarGo, Yankees, Colome

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2017 at 5:47pm CDT

The latest notes column from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports kicks off with an extremely early look at the potential market for Bryce Harper in two years, with Heyman listing the Yankees, Nationals and Phillies as teams that many within the industry think will vie for the 2015 NL MVP in free agency. The in-depth look at Harper focuses on the 24-year-old’s improved clubhouse demeanor and maturity in recent years and also adds more fuel to the rumors that Harper played part of the 2016 season through a shoulder injury that he’s reluctant to discuss. Heyman also touches base on Derek Norris later in the column, noting that there may be a better chance that Norris is simply released than traded. Washington agreed to a $4.25MM salary with Norris to avoid arbitration, but because arb contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, they could cut Norris before March 15 and only pay him 30 days termination pay — about $688K, by my math.

Some highlights from a lengthy look at all 30 teams around the league…

Pedro Alvarez still has fans in the Orioles’ front office, per Heyman, but there’s been “no evidence” of renewed contact between the two sides. The Twins talked to Alvarez’s camp at one point but haven’t been in touch recently, and while Rangers manager Jeff Banister is fond of Alvarez dating back to the pair’s days in Pittsburgh, there’s nothing to suggest the two sides could strike a deal.
The Cubs met with Scott Boras recently and discussed Jake Arrieta, but there was “no traction” in talks between the two sides. Heyman paints a similar picture to the one that has surrounded extension rumors with Arrieta for the past several months; the Cubs would be amenable to a three- or four-year deal, but Arrieta and Boras are targeting something more along the lines of Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract. Heyman also notes that the Cubs made a play for right-hander Brad Ziegler this winter before he inked a two-year deal with the Marlins.
Extension talks between the Rockies and Carlos Gonzalez are “on hold” for the time being. The team tried to explore talks with Gonzalez (another Boras client) recently, but with free agency just a few months away, hammering out a new deal has long seemed unlikely (and, I’d argue, unnecessary from the Rockies’ vantage point, given the plethora of outfield options in Denver).
After spending a combined $99MM on Matt Holliday and Aroldis Chapman at the Winter Meetings in early December, Yankees GM Brian Cashman was told he only had $4MM to work with over the remainder of the winter, Heyman reports. That level of cash prevented the Yanks from luring targets like Travis Wood and Jerry Blevins to the Bronx but did prove to be enough to buy Chris Carter (and perhaps Jon Niese, who inked a minor league deal). Cashman also tells Heyman that he did receive trade offers for Brett Gardner, but the offers simply weren’t enticing.
Rays closer Alex Colome was oft-rumored to have drawn trade interest last summer and earlier this offseason, though Heyman writes that the Nationals wouldn’t part with top outfield prospect Victor Robles in order to acquire him. Colome was outstanding in his first season in the ninth inning last year, logging 56 2/3 innings with a 1.91 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. The 28-year-old hasn’t even reached arbitration yet and is controllable through the 2020 season, so if he does eventually emerge as a potential trade chip, the asking price from the Tampa Bay front office would likely be deemed exorbitant by many clubs.

NL Central Notes: Hanrahan, Kang, Arrieta, Reds

By Steve Adams | February 22, 2017 at 8:41pm CDT

Recently retired right-hander Joel Hanrahan will rejoin the Pirates organization as a pitching coach for the team’s Class-A affiliate in West Virginia, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. The 35-year-old called it quits after he was unable to return to the Majors following his second career Tommy John surgery, but he’ll bring plenty of recent big league experience to dugout to help mentor the Pirates’ next wave of young arms. “I know he had great passion for pitching and for the game,” manager Clint Hurdle said to Berry and other reporters. “Really, the game got unplugged on him earlier than he wanted it to. He kept trying and it kept not working. That’s when I started thinking there might be a pilot light lit somewhere here.”

A bit more from the NL Central…

Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang appeared in South Korean court today and admitted to his recent DUI charge, as Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. “I deeply regret what I have done,” said Kang, who had two prior DUI arrests. “If I can get one last chance, I will become an exemplary player to earn respect from everyone.” Korean prosecutors sought a fine of just over $13,000 U.S. dollars for Kang. As Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette adds, it’s not clear whether further punishment will be handed by the Pirates organization, though Kang has already agreed to appear to an MLB-recommended treatment program. The verdict hearing for Kang will be held on March 3.
Both Jake Arrieta and Cubs GM Jed Hoyer spoke to ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers about the complicated factors that go into a a theoretical extension for Arrieta. The 2015 Cy Young winner was candid about the fact that he knows he’ll be paid handsomely next winter barring any form of injury or sudden decline. Arrieta again mentioned that there’s little reason for any player — himself or anyone else — to take a discount on a contract with free agency just six months away. Teammate Anthony Rizzo, too, weighed in on the matter and suggested that no one in the clubhouse would blame Arrieta for pursuing maximum dollars. “He has enough money to last him the rest of his life,” said Rizzo. “”What he gets a year from now is going to be icing on the cake. … But he’ll try to set the bar for the next guy just like the guy before us did.” The Cubs will soon have to try to find ways to retain as much of their young core as possible, with Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Kyle Hendricks all nearing arbitration. And, as Rogers notes, at some point the team will have to at least consider tearing up the remainder of Rizzo’s contract and attempting to make him a Cub for the remainder of his career.
Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that Reds skipper Bryan Price is extremely impressed by left-hander Wandy Peralta. The hard-throwing southpaw has a genuine opportunity to crack the team’s roster as a second left-handed option behind Tony Cingrani, whom the Reds prefer not to use in specialized matchups due to the fact that he can hold his own against righties. “On the days that we don’t have [Cingrani], it would be a really nice thing to be able to matchup a left-hander against some of the better left-handers in our division and in the National League,” Price said. The 25-year-old Peralta allowed seven runs in 7 1/3 innings in his MLB debut last season, though Buchanan details some tweaks he’s made to his repertoire over the summer. And Peralta did log a 2.33 ERA in 58 Triple-A innings last season, even if that impressive mark came with a less-encouraging 38-to-23 K/BB ratio.

NL Notes: Cubs, Weaver, Reds, Mets, Nats

By Connor Byrne | February 19, 2017 at 3:07pm CDT

Whether the Cubs extend right-hander Jake Arrieta prior to free agency next winter will be up to president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, chairman Tom Ricketts told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. “They have the right perspective on what they have to put a great team on the field this year but have a longer term perspective in realizing decisions that affect this year might hurt us in a few years,” said Ricketts, who added that the reigning World Series champions will be “thoughtful and strategic” in deciding when to exceed the luxury-tax threshold. The Cubs spent past the mark for the first time last year, but they’re on track to avoid the penalty this season, estimates Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and MLBTR. Allowing Arrieta to walk in free agency next year would help the Cubs stay under the limit in 2018, too, though they’d also lose the 2015 NL Cy Young winner and one of the game’s top starters. It seems that will happen, however, as Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, could push for a $200MM-plus deal. In the meantime, Arrieta will make $15.6375M in his final year of team control.

Central Notes: Arrieta, Nutting, Royals, Belisle

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | February 16, 2017 at 7:10pm CDT

Cubs hurler Jake Arrieta still expects to talk to the team about an extension before free agency and believes a deal is possible, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. However, Arrieta noted that extension talks aren’t his No. 1 priority as he focuses on his health and on the team’s chances of replicating last year’s World Series victory. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein, too, said he planned to meet with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, but as Wittenmyer explains, an extension still feels like a long shot. Boras has already compared Arrieta to right-hander Max Scherzer, who signed a seven-year, $210MM contract with the Nationals two winters ago. Wittenmyer writes that the Cubs aren’t likely to be open to a mega-deal — Jon Lester is just two years into his own $155MM pact — which could lead to Arrieta landing elsewhere in the long run. For the time being, Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tweeted yesterday that there are no talks scheduled between Boras and the Cubs.

Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:

Pirates owner Bob Nutting spoke with Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about a host of topics as he looks back on ten years in his current role. Nutting extolled the “transformation in every aspect of the organization” that has occurred in that time, describing the wide-ranging changes that have been undertaken. He also addressed concerns from some quarters with the team’s payroll, explaining that spending on MLB salaries isn’t the sole area where the organization is focused. “It’s how we’re drafting, it’s how we’re funding our international operations,” he said. “How we develop that talent, that broader picture of both investment in facilities, people and systems in our development system, which has completely transformed from what it had been and frankly what many other clubs are still doing. While the headline number of payroll is important, and we will invest there because we need to to win on the field, it’s also really important that that can’t be the sole metric that we use internally.” You’ll want to give the full interview a read to assess Nutting’s comments for yourself.
While the Royals traded away several pending free agents, the club kept several others and obviously signaled its intention to compete with its overall offseason approach. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports, Kansas City is still holding out the possibility of finding a way to keep one or more of its remaining players who’ll hit the open market after the 2017 season. Whether that could mean extension talks this spring isn’t clear, but it seems that the Royals will at least consider some kind of play for Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and/or Lorenzo Cain.
Righty reliever Matt Belisle landed with the Twins after a bounceback 2016 campaign, due in some part to lobbying efforts from a few noted former teammates. As Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press writes, LaTroy Hawkins and Michael Cuddyer didn’t exactly press the veteran to join the Minnesota organization, but their involvement in the process seemingly helped Belisle gain comfort with the idea of heading to the rebuilding club. “If Cuddy and LaTroy believed in it, I know I would too,” he explains.

NL Notes: Moss, Arrieta, Rockies

By charliewilmoth | January 14, 2017 at 1:29pm CDT

Brandon Moss lingers on the free agent market despite a relatively successful season with the Cardinals in 2016. According to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, that’s due not only to the logjam of 1B/OF sluggers still available via free agency, but to the fact that teams would increasingly prefer to find the next Brandon Moss than to sign the existing one at something close to market value. Moss’ own history is a data point in favor of this approach — he struggled for several years after his first taste of the big leagues before performing well as a cheap acquisition for the Athletics, giving the A’s much better value than they likely would have gotten with a big-name signing. Also, in the past several years the game has gotten younger as players have begun their decline phases at earlier ages, meaning that players at Moss’ current age (33) are less likely to be meaningful contributors. Here’s more from the National League.

Cubs ace Jake Arrieta doesn’t sound optimistic about his chances of receiving an extension in his last year before free agency eligibility, but his team still says it’s willing to try to negotiate one, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. “Years and dollars are always complicated, but I’m sure we’ll take a stab at it,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told fans today. Arrieta and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to terms on a one-year, $15.6375MM deal on Friday.
The Rockies have been speculatively connected to various catchers this offseason (including, for example, Matt Wieters). But the team is comfortable with its young duo of Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. “We are certainly monitoring the catching market, but we are extremely high and positive on the group that we have and we feel like there is a good, young core there,” says GM Jeff Bridich. Wolters entered the season with no big-league experience and a limited minor-league track record behind the plate, although he hit a reasonable .259/.327/.395 and received good marks for his framing. Murphy has played sparingly in the big leagues, but he batted .327/.361/.647 with 19 homers in 322 plate appearances in the admittedly hitter-friendly context of Triple-A Albuquerque last year.

Cubs Notes: Arrieta, David Ross, Tyson Ross

By charliewilmoth | January 14, 2017 at 9:51am CDT

Jake Arrieta’s agreement on a one-year, $15.6375MM deal this week suggests his time with the Cubs could be reaching its end, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, and his agent, Scott Boras, had previously said he and the Cubs would talk about an extension when the two sides discussed Arrieta’s 2017 salary this month. “The timeline is kind of coming to an end as far as as leading up to free agency,” Arrieta said yesterday. “I am here for one more year and I am going to enjoy every moment of it.” Still, he didn’t rule out the possibility that the two sides could still reach a deal. “If it happens, it happens. I don’t know where we stand. I really don’t. We do have some time to maybe work something out. If it doesn’t, I will become a free agent,” he said. Here’s more from out of Chicago.

The Cubs have announced that they’ve hired David Ross as a special assistant to baseball operations. The 39-year-old Ross, of course, retired as a player after a strong 2016 season capped with a World Series Game 7 homer, and he’s beloved in Chicago. (He carried the World Series trophy at the beginning of this weekend’s Cubs Convention yesterday.) He’s looking forward to his new role, which seems open-ended — MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes that Ross will contribute in a variety of roles, including scouting, development and front-office work. “I don’t even know what I’m doing,” Ross says. “I feel like there’s a hall-of-fame front office and a relationship with guys who I have a bond with. They offered to help me grow in my baseball knowledge and try to learn different aspects of what goes on in the organization. I’m really going to be listening.”
The Cubs recently lost out on Tyson Ross to the Rangers, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says the team still hopes to add starting pitching, as MLB.com’s Phil Rogers tweets. The Cubs “made it a difficult decision” for Ross, extending him an offer similar to the $6MM plus incentives he got from Texas, tweets CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. Ross, formerly a top starter with the Padres, could have provided a strong back-end option for the Cubs provided he’d made a solid comeback from the shoulder troubles that cost him most of his 2016 season and resulted in surgery in October to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Jake Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2017 at 3:58pm CDT

The Cubs have agreed on a salary to avoid arbitration with star righty Jake Arrieta, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $15.6375MM in his final trip through the arb process.

MLBTR’s model had projected Arrieta to earn $16.8MM, but as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained recently, it seemed likelier that he’d land closer to the $16MM level when analyzing comps. The deal exceeds the $15.525MM contract reached by Max Scherzer and the Tigers before the 2014 season, though unsurprisingly Arrieta comes nowhere near the year-over-year raise achieved that year by Scherzer.

It remains unclear whether Chicago will be able to work out a longer-term arrangement with the talented righty, who is now 30 years of age. He didn’t come anywhere near repeating his 2015 Cy Young campaign in his most recent season, but Arrieta still turned in a productive year. Over 197 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2017 at 10:10am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his third and final year of arbitration this winter with a hefty $10.7MM base salary following his 2015 Cy Young Award season. While his 2016 campaign was less stellar, Arrieta still posted a very respectable 3.10 ERA in 197.1 innings, along with an 18-8 record and 190 strikeouts. As a result, my model projects him to get a $6.1MM raise and earn $16.8MM for 2017.

Finding comparable pitchers to Arrieta’s platform season is tricky. His $6.1MM raise would be the second-highest ever for a third-year eligible starting pitcher — Max Scherzer got an $8.8MM raise after his Cy Young Award-winning season three years ago. Scherzer’s 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 innings and 240 strikeouts (plus the Cy Young Award itself) combine to put an obvious ceiling above Arrieta. There is no way Arrieta is going to get anywhere near Scherzer’s $8.8MM raise, but where the Cubs ace falls below that number is difficult to discern.

Aside from Scherzer, the next highest raise in this service class (excluding the anomalous and stale case of Carlos Zambrano in 2007) belongs to Jeff Samardzija, who got a $4.46MM raise in 2015. Samardzija posted just a 7-13 record that season, but with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings to go along with 202 strikeouts. While Arrieta’s 2016 season fell twenty innings short of Samardzija’s 2014, Arrieta’s 11 extra wins suggest he should easily top Samardzija’s raise.

Doug Fister in the 2014-15 offseason could be an interesting comparable because his win total is more applicable to Arrieta’s case. Fister received a $4.2MM raise after winning 16 games in 2014. Fister’s 2.41 ERA bested Arrieta’s mark from this past season, though Arrieta significantly outpaced Fister in innings (197.1 to 164) and strikeouts (190 to 98). Alfredo Simon got a $4.05MM raise that same year with 15 wins and 196.1 innings, but his 3.44 ERA is less impressive than Arrieta’s, and his 127 strikeouts are far weaker too.

One plausible comparable could be Justin Masterson, who got a $4.07MM raise after a strong 2013 campaign — 14-10 record, 3.45 ERA, and 195 strikeouts in 193 IP. While the innings and strikeouts are a reasonable comparison, the record and ERA are clearly a step behind Arrieta.

Overall, we see a very obvious ceiling at $8.8MM with Scherzer way above Arrieta, and a series of pitchers in the low $4MM-raise range that clearly represent a floor. Where Arrieta lands is a mystery, but it would surprise me if he achieved the $6.1MM raise as projected by the model. I think a $5MM raise makes a lot of sense based on these comparables, and maybe $5.5MM since he clearly has a much better case than all of the $4MM-raise pitchers, though $6.1 million seems a little too high. Look for Arrieta to land somewhere closer to $16MM in 2017 than the nearly $17MM the model expects.

Extension Candidate: Jake Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | December 28, 2016 at 9:14am CDT

The Cubs reportedly plan to discuss a new, long-term contract with star righty Jake Arrieta early in 2017. Prior talks failed to produce much apparent traction, but there’s new urgency if a deal is to be found. Arrieta, after all, will reach the open market after the season.

If nothing else, Chicago will need to sort out Arrieta’s final arbitration salary with agent Scott Boras. After a huge raise following his monster 2015 season, Arrieta took down $10.7MM last year. And though he wasn’t as good in 2016, there’s another hefty boost coming; MLBTR projects to earn a $16.8MM payday.

So, aside from nailing down that number, just what might the sides talk about when they sit down in the coming weeks? Expectations, perhaps, represent the most important ingredients in this particular extension scenario, because valuing Arrieta’s post-2017 seasons without the knowledge of his 2017 output is particularly difficult.

Arrieta’s story is well known, and need not be repeated in full here. Suffice to say, his career renaissance in Chicago has been spectacular and complete. Over 2014-15, the righty provided 358 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA pitching over 58 starts. He was dominant, especially, in the latter of those two seasons, when he posted 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 and allowed a league-low 5.9 hits per nine while spinning four complete games. After filling up 229 innings and taking home the National League Cy Young award, a course was set for a huge free-agent contract.

The early portion of 2016 largely represented a continuation; though his walk rate was up, the results remained dominant. By early June, though, the earned runs began to catch up as Arrieta’s typically excellent suppression of walks and home runs began faltering. Ultimately, he fell just shy of 200 innings and ended the year with a 3.10 ERA to go with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Beyond the jump in walk rate, Arrieta also paced the league with 16 wild pitches.

To be sure, all the signs weren’t concerning. Arrieta continued to induce grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him, didn’t show any worrying changes in velocity, mostly maintained his swinging-strike rate (10.5%, down from a personal best 11.1%), and continued to suppress BABIP in a consistent manner suggestive of skill, not merely good fortune. But hitters chased out of the zone slightly less frequently and made somewhat more hard contact in 2016, while also managing a few more home runs (16).

In the aggregate, Arrieta is still exceedingly difficult to square up and seems to be about as good a bet as anyone to deliver 200 or more innings from a health perspective. Even the less-dominant version is still a high-quality pitcher. Heck, he even managed to add real value with the bat last year (.262/.304/.415). And Arrieta showed up in the postseason — the World Series, especially, where he allowed just three earned runs on five hits over 11 1/3 innings in two starts.

Still, it’s hard to say that Arrieta’s current standing matches his status at this time last year. If Arrieta isn’t a true ace — which, at least, is in doubt — then the conversation is somewhat different. Valuing his future is more about projections and comps than it is a question of just how much a team can really spend on a single pitcher. And reaching agreement on an extension poses questions such as: Will the team will ascribe added value to the possibility of a return to full dominance? Will the player forego perhaps greater potential earnings to sell away the risk of another less-than-excellent (or worse) season?

If Arrieta isn’t a true ace, then pedestrian considerations such as age — he turns 31 in March of 2017, and will turn 32 before the start of the 2018 season — rise in importance. That means Arrieta will hit the market at nearly the same age (just a few months younger) as Zack Greinke did last winter. Greinke’s massive contract (six years, $206.5MM) isn’t exactly a bad sign for Arrieta, but it’s tough to see Chicago valuing the latter’s free-agent years as highly as the D-Backs did the former’s (over $34MM). That contract always seemed a reach, and came on the heels of Greinke’s historic 2015 season.

Perhaps a more reasonable current comp is pitching alongside Arrieta in the Cubs’ rotation. Jon Lester, who was a younger free agent than will be Arrieta, got $155MM over six years. But even that could be rich. Johnny Cueto, one of the game’s most accomplished hurlers, landed shy of Lester (six years, $130MM, albeit with an opt-out) heading into his age-30 season. His late-2015 scuffles — which weren’t, perhaps, all that dissimilar from Arrieta’s — seemed to put a real dent in his value.

The most direct comparables, of course, are drawn to players who sign extensions just before hitting the market. Stephen Strasburg got seven years and $175MM from the Nationals in the middle of the 2016 season. Before him, Homer Bailey took home $105MM over six seasons (including his arb year) from the Reds. Neither pitcher is a clean comp — Strasburg, due to age; Bailey, due to performance — but those deals are still illustrative. Strasburg’s signing, in particular, shows that an extension can’t be ruled out, even for a market-leading starter repped by Boras. Both contracts show the need for compromise as well as the inherent risk in a late-arb pitching extension. Injuries slowed both Strasburg and Bailey not long after their new deals were inked. In both of those cases, they wisely (in hindsight) sold away the chance at perhaps even greater earnings to lock in contracts with their existing organizations.

It is ultimately difficult to know whether there’s a realistic chance of the Cubs and Arrieta reaching a deal. The relative lack of upper-level, high-quality starting pitching prospects in the Chicago system suggests an ongoing need. And the Lester signing shows that the team will sign a long-term deal with a starter in the right circumstances. But it seems likely there’ll be some cap to the team’s willingness to add guaranteed years and boost the AAV in Arrieta’s case. Just where those lines will be drawn by both the team and its once (and future?) staff ace remain to be seen. Is Strasburg’s $25MM AAV a fair market point, perhaps over a shorter term? Does Cueto’s combination of a lower AAV and opt-out provide a guide? Or will Arrieta hold out for a chance to chase Greinke?

Just for kicks … let’s see how likely a deal is, in the estimation of MLBTR’s readers:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Jake Arrieta

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect