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J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez To DL With Fractured Bone In Elbow

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Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez left tonight’s action with what has been diagnosed as a non-displaced fracture of the radial neck of his right elbow, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press reports (Twitter links). Martinez will undergo a CT scan tomorrow to further assess the injury, but he’s already headed for the 15-day DL, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link).

Preliminary expectations are that Martinez will miss four to six weeks, though it would appear that we’ll need to await a full assessment before the timeline is fully clear. Youngster Steven Moya will return to the majors to take his place.

[Related: Updated Tigers depth chart]

The injury occurred when Martinez reached out to brace himself as he chased a ball into the right-field corner. He appeared to make contact with the wall at a funny angle, and immediately reacted in pain.

It’s a big loss for the Tigers, who are fighting for position in a tightly-bunched AL Central. Martinez continues to provide big-time offensive production from the heart of the order. The 28-year-old, once a reclamation project, has now established himself as one of the game’s most consistent sluggers who won’t easily be replaced.

Even if Martinez is able to make it back relatively quickly, it seems he’ll be out for most or all of the run-up to the trade deadline. That hurts the team’s chances of staying in the hunt and also may make it tough for the organization to assess its needs, though presumably the Tigers will at least have a good sense by that point of when Martinez will return.

Tigers, J.D. Martinez Agree To Two-Year Extension

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7:30pm: Martinez will receive $6.75MM this year and $11.75MM for the following campaign, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets.

7:07pm: The Tigers have reportedly bought out the remaining arbitration eligibility of outfielder J.D. Martinez. The RMG Baseball client is said to have a deal in place for two years and $18.5MM.

Sep 3, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez (28) looks on during batting practice prior to a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Martinez, 28, has long been said to be discussing a long-term pact with Detroit, but it appears that the sides have settled on a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing this year and lock in a salary for 2017 as well. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained earlier this winter, Martinez had an interesting arbitration case. He projected at $7.8MM and filed at $8MM, with the team countering at $6MM.

Obviously, the two-year arrangement won’t buy up any free agent years. But it will get the breakout star a guaranteed contract for both of the next two seasons. And the Tigers could well stand to save some money. Martinez was projected at a $4.8MM raise from his 2015 salary, and anything approaching his numbers from last season would have set him up for yet more in his final year of arb eligibility.

It remains to be seen whether this contract will set the stage for future talks — or, instead, represent a compromise agreement that lines Martinez up for the open market. We’ve seen several recent examples of arb-only extensions for prominent players, in large part as a mechanism to help resolve the initial year’s arbitration disagreement. Lorenzo Cain and the Royals did the same back in January.

In several other instances, new deals were never reached. Players such as Todd Frazier (Reds), Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals) were either traded or allowed to reach free agency. While further negotiations are hardly out of the question in Martinez’s case, the salary agreement does remove one major motivator for further talks.

Martinez looks to be a bargain at that rate — as would be expected given the way the arb system works. He’s been nothing short of outstanding since coming to the Tigers as a minor league free agent before the 2014 campaign. Martinez owns a composite .296/.350/.543 slash and has hit 61 home runs over 1,137 plate appearances for Detroit. It’s fair to note, too, that Martinez received positive marks in right field last year from both UZR and DRS.

Robert Murray of Baseball Essential first noted “unconfirmed rumblings” of a two-year, $18.5MM deal on Twitter. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation confirmed the deal, years, and dollars (Twitter links). 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

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The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

  • The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
  • J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
  • The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
  • While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Tigers, J.D. Martinez Discussing Extension

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The Tigers and right fielder J.D. Martinez have had discussions about a long-term extension, the outfielder himself told MLive.com’s Chris Iott yesterday. “It’s definitely something we’re still talking about,” Martinez said. “It’s something I think both sides are still interested in. We haven’t come to something where we both feel comfortable yet. I love this team. I want to be part of this team. I would love to be a Tiger for life. We’ve just got to see how it goes.”

General manager Al Avila deflected questions when asked about the status of negotiations, speaking highly of Martinez as a player but neglecting to divulge any sort of details into discussions. The Tigers and Martinez have an unresolved arbitration case at present, with Detroit having filed a $6MM salary figure and Martinez having filed an $8MM figure. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $7.8MM salary for Martinez in 2016 and explained in a full breakdown of Martinez’s arbitration case that most players in his service class coming off 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons ultimately sign multi-year deals, leaving few recent comparables as the two sides work to avoid a hearing.

In previewing the Tigers’ offseason, I raised the subject of a possible Martinez extension, estimating that if Martinez’s remaining arbitration years can be valued in the vicinity of $20MM (give or take a million), a six-year deal that paid him $20-22MM per free-agent season would be a reasonable outcome. Given the open-market contracts we’ve seen for Martinez’s new teammate Justin Upton as well as Jason Heyward and the rumored five-year offer to Yoenis Cespedes from the Nationals, perhaps something on the lower end of that range would be appropriate, considering the fact that Martinez is still two full seasons from reaching the free-agent market. However, having already banked $3MM this past season and slated to earn somewhere around $7MM this season, there’s less urgency for Martinez to take a discount, as he’s already secured a good bit of financial security. Two more seasons like his 2014-15 years would put him in line for a mammoth contract entering what would be his age-30 season. Something in the vicinity of $100MM doesn’t seem unreasonable, if the Tigers believe he can sustain this production. Alternatively, the Tigers and Martinez could pursue a two-year pact that would lock in his remaining arbitration years without extending club control. Lorenzo Cain went that route earlier this week, and we’ve previously seen players such as Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann do the same.

A long-term contract for Martinez is an understandable goal for either side, but it’s more complicated for the Tigers when looking at the team’s long-term payroll. Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year extension kicks in this season, and he’s owed $248MM over the life of that contract. Similarly, Justin Verlander is owed $28MM annually through the 2019 season, Zimmermann will receive $110MM over the next five years ($18MM in 2016-17, $24MM in 2018 and $25MM in 2019-20), and Victor Martinez is owed $18MM in each of the next three seasons as well. The Tigers cannot even be certain what their payroll will look like beyond the 2017 campaign, as it’s not known whether Upton will again test the market by virtue of his contract’s opt-out clause or if he’ll opt into the remaining four years and $88.7MM remaining on his deal at that time. If Upton remains on the payroll, that would mean the Tigers already have a staggering total of roughly $122.175MM committed to five players in 2018, $105.175MM committed to four players in 2019 and $78.175MM committed to three players in 2020. Adding a guaranteed salary for Martinez onto those seasons could put the team in a precarious situation years down the line. If Upton does opt out and sign elsewhere, it becomes easier to envision adding a significant annual salary for Martinez.

Martinez wouldn’t comment on how the Upton signing impacted his chances at landing the long-term deal he seeks, only telling Iott how excited he was to add a bat like Upton’s to their already-impressive lineup. He did, however, tell Iott that he doesn’t want to negotiate an extension during the season, which effectively sets an Opening Day deadline for the two sides to hammer out a long-term pact.

Arbitration Breakdown: J.D. Martinez

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Over the last few weeks, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

After struggling earlier in his career with the Astros, J.D. Martinez has come into his own with the Tigers and had a career year in 2015, making a strong case for a large raise in his second year of arbitration eligibility. Martinez had 38 home runs and 102 runs batted in, while hitting .282. After earning $3MM in 2015, our model projects him to get a healthy $4.8MM raise to $7.8MM.

As it turns out, that projection does fall within the filing figures submitted today when the sides were unable to work out a deal before the deadline. But the model is closer to Martinez’s own $8MM submission — which would reflect a $5MM raise — than Detroit’s $6MM figure — which would give him just a $3MM bump.

As player and club work to reach a compromise — or, if not, to prepare for a hearing — they will be looking closely at similarly-situated past cases. But it is difficult to find reasonable comparables for Martinez. After a player’s first year of arbitration eligibility, arbitration salaries in subsequent years are generally based only on the most recent year. For Martinez, this puts him in an esteemed class of hitters who were in the signature 30/100 range for home runs and RBIs, most of whom get healthy raises. In the previous nine years, only two such players received one-year deals in arbitration—mainly because the other seven guys who would have been eligible inked multi-year deals instead.

Notably, both of those players had much better cases than Martinez: Chris Davis hit 53 home runs with 138 RBIs in 2013, leading to a $7.05MM raise, while Jacoby Ellsbury hit .321 with 39 stolen bases in addition to his 32 home runs and 105 RBIs in 2012, en route to a $5.65MM raise. These players certainly look like ceilings for Martinez, so it seemed unlikely he could pin down $5.65MM or above — a doubt that his representatives obviously shared, as reflected in the filing number.

However, nearly everyone else in Martinez’s service class in recent years appears to be a floor. In the last nine years, the third highest raise for a second-year eligible hitter who did not sign a multi-year deal went to Hunter Pence, who received only $3.4MM in 2011. He hit .282 with 25 home runs and 91 RBIs. Although Pence stole 18 bases, far more than Martinez’s three, I have found that power is much more important than speed in arbitration cases and Martinez’s superior power numbers should help him easily out-earn Pence’s $3.4MM raise. The fact that Pence’s cases was five years ago only makes that clearer.

Lucas Duda was another recent player with 30 home runs going into his second year of eligibility, but he only hit .253 and only had 92 RBIs, so his raise was just $1.6375. He seems like an even less relevant comparable.

The fact that no player in Martinez’s service class has gotten a one-year deal with a raise anywhere between Pence’s $3.4MM raise and Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise made it difficult to tell how accurate our $4.8MM projection might be. It may be that some other player could be discussed as a comparable, but it is hard to see who’d be suitable.

In cases like this, there are often multi-year deals that teams and players are both willing to sign in the face of this type of uncertainty, so that could happen here — as they’ve previously discussed — especially now that there’s a fairly sizable gulf to bridge. But even in that case, it is not clear who could be a model, since most of the multi-year deals for similar power hitters have been inked earlier in player’s careers.

In the end, I view the $4.8MM raise as a reasonable mark, with the entire $3.4MM  to $5.65MM range appearing defensible. Given the filed values, Martinez seems to have the more reasonable position, though both parties will have plenty of incentive to work something out rather than trusting the decision to an arbitration panel.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Quick Hits: Strauss, Tigers, Castellanos, Martinez

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Joe Strauss, who covered the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals over three decades as a reporter and columnist for several news outlets, passed away today at age 54 due to complications from a battle with leukemia.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko are just a few of the many peers who paid tribute to Strauss with chronicles of his outstanding career and remembrances of their friend and colleague.  Countless news items from Strauss appeared on this website’s pages over the years, and all of us on the MLB Trade Rumors staff send our condolences to Strauss’ friends and family.

Here are some notes from around the game as we head into a new week…

  • The Tigers have been getting calls about Nick Castellanos, Tony Paul of the Detroit News reports.  Castellanos was a 2010 first-rounder and a former top prospect, though he’s underwhelmed both offensively and defensively in two full Major League seasons, posting negative fWAR totals in both 2014 and 2015.  These struggles notwithstanding, it’s probably unlikely that Detroit would move Castellanos since he’s only 23 and under team control through the 2019 season.
  • Also from Paul, he guesses that once J.D. Martinez and the Tigers get talking about an extension, the negotiations will be in the neighborhood of a four-year, $60MM deal.  This contract could be backloaded, which would allow the team to pursue more upgrades now and pay Martinez his biggest salaries later once other large contracts have come off the books.  Martinez is entering his age-28 season now and has two remaining years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency, so under Paul’s projected extension, Martinez would reach the open market as a 32-year-old having given up two free agent years.  The $60MM number may be a little conservative, in my view, given how first-rate hitting is at a premium.
  • While the Tigers aren’t shy about spending, Paul doesn’t think the team will stray too far (if at all) over the luxury tax limit, so landing a top outfield name like Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon is probably unrealistic.  Detroit could move another big contract like Ian Kinsler to make payroll space, though Paul points out that the team would just be creating a new hole at second base to solve a hole in left field.  The Tigers could instead save any payroll room for a trade deadline addition.
  • At the Winter Meetings, Orioles manager Buck Showalter told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the club was willing to surrender its first round draft pick (14th overall) to sign the right qualifying offer free agent but it wouldn’t be without great consideration.  “It would have to be something that really fits. But we would if we had to,” Showalter said.  “But one of our big days is going to be…in June, we got seven picks in the first 100 in the draft. I don’t know if we’ve ever had that. This is big for us. We can solidify our already strong system.”  An interesting wrinkle to Showalter’s statement is that the O’s are actually guaranteed to have only five picks within the first 91 selections.  They would only receive those two other picks if QO free agents Wei-Yin Chen and Chris Davis both signed elsewhere.  Since Showalter’s statement was made during the Meetings, it would’ve come roughly around the time that Baltimore pulled its $150MM offer to Davis off the table, so the manager’s words could be interpreted as a hint that the O’s could be prepared to move on from the first baseman (though the two sides have since continued to talk).

Tigers, J.D. Martinez Have Mutual Interest In Extension

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Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the organization has interest in pursuing an extension with outfielder J.D. Martinez, as Chris Iott of MLive.com reports. He declined to discuss whether and to what extent the sides had already discussed that possibility.

“I don’t really want to get into our conversations with the players or their agents at this point,” said the newly-minted Detroit GM. “Usually we don’t make those comments. I can tell you we would have interest in something like that.”

Martinez, 28, is entering his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $3MM last year. He’ll be looking for a big increase on that payout after a stellar campaign. MLBTR’s arbitration projections, via Matt Swartz, expect Martinez to receive nearly a $5MM raise this winter.

From his perspective, Martinez tells Iott, he has interest in a longer-term arrangement. But he said he’d let his representatives at RMG Baseball handle any contractual matters. “I would love to play in Detroit the rest of my career,” said Martinez. “But I leave the business part to my agent.”

That increasing earning power certainly has Martinez set up for a significant new contract. There aren’t many recent comps from power-hitting corner outfielders, but Adam Jones (six years, $85.5MM) and Alex Gordon (four years, $50MM) previously signed fairly large extensions when they were in the 4+ service class.

With 61 total home runs and a composite .304/.350/.543 batting line over the last two seasons, Martinez has out-produced all of this winter’s top free agents since he began his breakout. If he keeps that up, he’ll be in line for a massive free agent payday, and any extension would need to reflect that. All said, it seems that the initial interest is there to make a deal plausible, but both sides have plenty of ground to cover if something is to get done.

Front Office Notes: Dombrowski, Chernoff, Avila, Tigers

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There’s been plenty of front office turnover this summer, with Dave Dombrowski’s departure from the Tigers’ front office, the beginning of Doug Melvin’s transition to an advisory role with the Brewers and the abrupt resignation of Angels GM Jerry Dipoto (who has since taken a temporary consulting position with the Red Sox).

Here’s the latest buzz pertaining to executives around the league…

  • The Nationals, Blue Jays and Mariners appear to be the most likely landing spots for Dombrowski, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The Blue Jays and Mariners were immediately speculated upon landing spots, as Toronto has long been on the hunt for a president to replace the retiring Paul Beeston, and Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik’s job security has been questioned in the wake of a disappointing season for the Mariners. The Nationals don’t have an immediate need and seem a somewhat curious fit, given the fact that the well-respected Mike Rizzo currently holds the president of baseball operations title in D.C. The combination of Rizzo and Dombrowski, though, would give Washington a pair of very accomplished baseball minds atop their decision-making pyramid, if the two were to work together.
  • “I’ve had a number of people tell me today they think [Indians assistant GM Mike] Chernoff will be the one to beat,” Peter Gammons replied to the MLB Network’s Chris Russo yesterday when asked who will be the new GM of the Brewers (video link, with Brewers talk beginning at about the 4:00 mark). Gammons also lists Red Sox assistant GM Mike Hazen as a possibility and notes that he believes Melvin could very well remain on board with the Brewers as a club president.
  • New Tigers GM Al Avila spoke at length with Tony Paul of the Detroit News about his new position. While Avila didn’t want to get too in-depth about the differences between him and his friend/predecessor, Dombrowski, he did tell Paul that the Tigers’ front office will take more of an analytical approach to roster construction. “One thing I will bring different is expanded analytics,” said Avila. “I will tell you that I feel that we have a ways to go to catch up with the industry. We have been making some strides, but we’ll fast-forward a little bit and add to that department. You’ll see a big difference there.” However, Avila also stressed the importance of maintaining a balance between traditional scouting and the statistical component of player analysis. As Paul notes, the presence of J.D. Martinez on the Tigers can be chalked up to traditional scouting, and Avila played a huge role in bringing Martinez to Detroit.
  • Lastly, the Tigers announced three more front office promotions earlier this week. Major League scout Dave Littlefield (the former GM of the Pirates) has been promoted to vice president of player development. Scott Reid has been bumped from special assistant to senior advisor, and Dick Egan is now a special assistant to the executive VP and general manager.

AL Central Notes: Dozier, Tigers, Finnegan

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It’s already been a busy day for AL Central news.  We’ve learned Corey Kluber and the Indians aren’t close in contract negotiations, MLBTR’s Zach Links has a pair of interviews with Twins GM Terry Ryan and right-hander Mike Pelfrey, and Minnesota also grabbed headlines by inking second baseman Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20MM extension.  Here’s even more from around the division…

  • Dozier, Ryan, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony and Dozier’s agent Damon Lapa discussed the contract during a press conference today (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has the details).  The two sides discussed extensions of up to eight years in length, but they instead settled on a deal that only covers Dozier’s arbitration years and doesn’t include any club options.  “In Brian’s case, we felt it important to restrict the club’s ability at the back end of the contract to have any options or anything like that,” Lapa said.  “To us that resulted in a shorter term, but we feel in the long run that’s in Brian’s best interests. It preserves his ability to hit free agency on time at 31 as opposed to some of the other players who will be in their mid-30s.”
  • While retaining the ability to test free agency was a key point for Dozier, he made it clear that he would like to spend the rest of his career in Minnesota.  He’s quite open to a future extension with the team and “hopefully this [contract] is a stepping stone for something possibly even longer.”
  • “There are rumblings some talks are in the works” between David Price and the Tigers about an extension, Tony Paul of the Detroit News writes.  Price said two weeks ago that there hadn’t been any negotiations between the two sides but he expected the club to approach him before the start of the season.
  • Also from Paul’s piece, he suggests the Tigers should explore extending J.D. Martinez or Nick Castellanos now in order to gain cost certainty over the young players, pick up another year or two of team control and possibly score a bargain if they keep producing.  While I’m sure the Tigers would take a team-friendly figure if they could find it (especially with Martinez coming off a huge 2014 season), they might be more inclined to wait a bit longer to make sure of what they really have in either player.
  • Royals lefty Brandon Finnegan will begin the season at Double-A, the team announced yesterday.  Finnegan, the Royals’ first-round draft pick last July, was fast-tracked to the majors after just 27 minor league innings and he made some important bullpen appearances for K.C. during their playoff run. There was some question as to whether Finnegan would pitch out of the Royals’ bullpen again on Opening Day or if he’d continue developing as a starter at Triple-A, though GM Dayton Moore tells Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star that the move to Double-A was made because “we’re still learning about Brandon.”  Pitch counts and workload were also factors, though Moore was pleased with how Finnegan accounted for himself while in the bigs.
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