Justin Verlander

The Astros will reinstate Justin Verlander from the injured list prior to Friday’s game against the Nationals, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Verlander will start Friday’s game in what’ll be his season debut. The three-time Cy Young winner opened the season on the 15-day injured list after he was slowed by shoulder fatigue early in spring training.

Verlander’s return is a boon for an Astros rotation that has been hammered by injuries, even beyond the expected absence of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom are still on the mend from surgeries that ended their 2023 seasons. Houston saw Verlander slowed by shoulder troubles early in spring, lost Jose Urquidy to a forearm strain and recently placed Framber Valdez on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation.

The Astros have already cycled through multiple depth starters, including rookies Blair Henley and Spencer Arrighetti. Even with an unexpectedly dominant start to the year for Ronel Blanco — previously the team’s sixth starter but now a vital member of the staff who’s already thrown a no-hitter in 2024 — Houston starters have the fifth-worst ERA in Major League Baseball at 5.13. The quartet of Henley, Arrighetti, J.P. France and Hunter Brown have combined to yield a staggering 44 runs in just 36 1/3 innings of work.

At 41 years old, it’s fair to wonder how long Verlander has left as a high-end starter. But he looked the part in 2023 when he tossed 162 innings of 3.22 ERA ball, fanned 21.5% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate, and maintained a solid 94.4 mph average on his heater. He’s been tagged for an ugly 11 earned runs over seven innings in two minor league rehab appearances, but he’s also fanned nine of 39 opponents in that time (23.1%) and issued just two walks (5.1%).

Verlander’s return should at least prevent the ’Stros from needing to give any more starts to any of the team’s rookies for the time being. He’ll step into the rotation alongside Cristian Javier, Blanco, France and Brown. Houston will hope for better results from sophomores France and Brown, both of whom were solid rotation pieces in their 2023 rookie showings. (Though France wilted in rather glaring fashion down the stretch last year.) Brown, in particular, was one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to last year’s debut. He’s had an awful start to the season, headlined by a nine-run shellacking at the hands of the Royals, but he held a powerhouse Braves lineup to two runs over six innings in a rebound effort last night.

Turning back to Verlander specifically, the timing of his return bears particular importance. His two-year, $86.666MM contract contains a vesting $35MM player option for a third season. If he’s able to throw 140 innings in 2024, he’ll have the right to exercise that player option and lock himself in at $35MM next year — provided he finishes the season without an arm injury that would prevent him from pitching in 2025. If his shoulder causes further problems and sends him back to the injured list, the conditions of that player option will become far more pertinent. As it stands, the future Hall of Famer should have ample time to reach the requisite 140 frames.

Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.

Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.

Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.

The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.

Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.

It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.

Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.