Astros Notes: McCullers, Bloss, Verlander
Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from last year’s flexor surgery hit a snag. Manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon the team was pausing the righty’s throwing program after he experienced arm soreness coming out of his recent bullpen sessions (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The team didn’t provide much detail, as Espada noted only that McCullers won’t throw for a few days “until we sit back down and reevaluate how we’re going to move forward.”
It’s possible this is merely a minor setback and McCullers will be able to resume throwing in the coming days. Still, any mention of arm soreness is going to raise alarm with the pitcher’s injury history. McCullers lost the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the previous November. He returned and stayed healthy for most of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he battled forearm discomfort during the ’21 postseason.
McCullers was out into August ’22. He returned to make 11 starts down the stretch and into the playoffs before suffering another arm injury while ramping up during the 2022-23 offseason. That eventually necessitated surgery. McCullers hasn’t pitched in a game since starting Game 3 of the 2022 World Series.
That kind of extended layoff makes it difficult for the Astros to bank too heavily on McCullers contributing down the stretch. Yet the team has pointed to returns from Luis Garcia and McCullers as possible stabilizers for a rotation that is barely hanging on. Garcia is on a rehab stint as he works back from last May’s Tommy John procedure. He could be back around the start of August. Even if all goes well with Garcia, the rotation depth remains perhaps the team’s biggest question.
Houston is operating with four starting pitchers at the moment. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are the only healthy starters on the 40-man roster. They should get a fifth arm back this week. Espada suggested that Jake Bloss is likely to return from the 15-day injured list to start on Thursday against the Marlins (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Bloss suffered a shoulder injury during his MLB debut on June 21 and has been shelved for around three weeks.
Getting Bloss back nominally completes the rotation, but the club can’t feel great about relying on a pair of rookies for the final two spots. Arrighetti has had an inconsistent debut campaign and is sitting on a 5.96 ERA across 16 starts. The Astros just drafted Bloss in the third round last summer. He has made two starts above Double-A. Blanco, who has had a fantastic year after securing the fifth starter job in Spring Training, had never topped 88 innings in any minor league or MLB season before this one. He’s up to 103 frames with a 2.53 ERA after firing seven innings of two-run ball tonight.
Blanco’s emergence and Hunter Brown’s midseason turnaround have helped key the Astros’ recent push back into contention for the AL West. They’ll need more sources of reliable innings down the stretch, which will likely come through some combination of injury returnees and trade. Beyond Garcia and McCullers, Justin Verlander has been out since mid-June with neck discomfort. The future Hall of Famer suggested on Tuesday that he’s still unsure precisely when he’ll be ready for game action (link via Kawahara). Unsurprisingly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote recently that Houston is looking to add at least one starting pitcher from outside the organization before the July 30 deadline.
AL West Notes: Tucker, Verlander, Bloss, Woo, Jung
Astros manager Joe Espada offered a disappointing, if not entirely surprising, injury update regarding two of his biggest stars. Speaking to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) ahead of today’s contest in Toronto, the skipper acknowledged that neither Kyle Tucker nor Justin Verlander is likely to return from the IL before the All-Star break.
Tucker has not played since June 3 as he nurses a right shin contusion he suffered when he fouled a ball off his leg. In mid-June, Espada suggested that Tucker would likely require a minor league rehab assignment. With the All-Star break fast approaching and the outfielder yet to begin any on-field work (per Kawahara), it’s hard to imagine he makes it back before the break. The Astros would surely like to have Tucker back as soon as possible, but they have played surprisingly well in their best hitter’s absence. Making sure that he’s healthy for the stretch run is more important than rushing him back in July.
Meanwhile, Verlander has not pitched since June 9; he is dealing with neck discomfort. He is progressing well, but Espada says the future Hall of Famer has not yet gotten back to throwing off a mound. Once again, the Astros could certainly use the veteran in their injury-plagued rotation ASAP, but rushing him back would be a shortsighted move with so much season left to play.
Another point of interest concerning Verlander: As Kawahara notes, it is now extremely unlikely that his conditional $35MM player option for 2025 will be triggered. Even if the 41-year-old were to return immediately after the All-Star break and pitch once every five games for the rest of the season, he would need to average 6 1/3 innings per start to reach the necessary 140 innings pitched.
Finally, Espada also mentioned that rookie Jake Bloss will make a rehab start this weekend. Barring any setbacks, the young righty could make his next start in Houston. Bloss, 23, is generally considered one of the Astros’ better pitching prospects. He landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort on June 21, the same day that he made his MLB debut.
More injury updates from around the AL West:
- Rangers manager Bruce Bochy offered reporters an update on Josh Jung, who has been on the IL almost all season. The All-Star third baseman fractured his wrist on a hit-by-pitch on April 1. Jung has recently been nursing a flare-up of discomfort in his injured wrist and has not swung a bat since his last rehab game on June 20 (per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). However, he has no further structural damage. The Rangers are going to shut him down completely for another week, after which they hope he’ll be able to restart his rehab assignment (per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today). Needless to say, this means Jung will not be ready to return to Arlington before the All-Star break.
- In more positive news, the Mariners aren’t ready to rule out the possibility that Bryan Woo could return to their rotation ahead of the Midsummer Classic. He threw a successful bullpen session on Wednesday (per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) and will make a rehab start this weekend. If all goes well in that outing, there’s a chance he could make his next start for Seattle. Woo, 24, has pitched exceptionally well in his sophomore season, with a 1.77 ERA in eight starts. Not all of his underlying numbers are quite as eye-catching (4.01 SIERA, 3.96 xFIP), but there’s no doubt the Mariners would like to have the young hurler back as soon as possible to see more of what he’s capable of.
Astros Notes: France, Bloss, Caratini, Graveman
Rotation depth has been an issue for the Astros throughout the season, and they’re still getting unwelcome updates on that front. General manager Dana Brown said yesterday in an appearance on SportsTalk 790 AM that righty J.P. France, who’s on the minor league injured list due to a shoulder injury, had a recent setback after building up to long-tossing (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). There’s presently no timetable for France’s return to the mound.
The 29-year-old France was an out-of-the-blue rotation savior in Houston for much of the 2023 season. He started 23 games for the ‘Stros, posted a sharp 3.83 ERA, and wound up finishing fourth on the team in innings pitched (136 1/3) as Houston navigated several injuries. France appeared to fade down the stretch, however, yielding five or more runs in three of his final six starts — including a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox in late August. He also turned in an ERA north of 7.00 in his first five starts of the current season, bringing his overall ERA in his past 11 big league starts to 7.71.
That rocky stretch notwithstanding, the ongoing injury trouble for France is a notable hit to Houston’s rotation depth. He was quite strong through his first 17 starts last season, and for a club that entered the year with Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all on the injured list, France represented an important fifth or sixth option on the staff. Instead, he’s been limited to just 29 innings between the majors and minors combined, and it’s not clear when or whether he’ll pitch his way back into the team’s plans.
There’s better news on right-hander Jake Bloss, who exited his major league debut this weekend after 3 2/3 innings and was subsequently placed on the injured list with discomfort in his right shoulder. Manager Joe Espada said yesterday in his pregame media session that an MRI revealed only inflammation in the young right-hander’s shoulder (video link via SportsTalk 790). He’ll go “a few” days without throwing, but the absence of any structural damage is a welcome relief for the organization.
The 23-year-old Bloss was Houston’s third-round pick just last summer and raced through the minors — in part because of the team’s litany of rotation injuries but also because of outstanding performance. In a dozen minor league starts between High-A (four starts) and Double-A (eight starts) prior to his promotion, Bloss posted a 1.74 ERA through 62 innings.
Bloss’ placement on the injured list brings Houston back down to four healthy starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, however. He joins Verlander, Garcia, McCullers, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy on the major league injured list (plus France in Triple-A). Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are locked into spots for the moment, but the Astros will still need to stretch further to bring up another arm or rely on a bullpen game or two while Bloss and Verlander mend. Verlander, Espada noted yesterday, has yet to resume throwing. There’s no firm timetable for when he might begin a throwing program or return to the Houston roster.
Elsewhere on the injury front, it seems backup catcher Victor Caratini will be out at least three to four weeks (per Brown in that same SportsTalk 790 appearance). He hit the injured list with a left hip flexor strain last week, which prompted the Astros to bring up catcher Cesar Salazar from Triple-A Sugar Land. That timeline from Brown could put Caratini roughly in line with the All-Star break, barring any setbacks.
Caratini has quietly been a solid option backing up young Yainer Diaz. His .248/.287/.400 batting line is right in line with the league average after weighting for his home park (by measure of wRC+). That level of production outpaces even most starting catchers around the league, leaving Caratini looking like a nice pickup on the two-year, $12MM contract he signed over the winter.
Lastly, righty Kendall Graveman tells Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle that he’s not giving up hope of a late-season return following his January shoulder surgery. While Graveman acknowledged the possibility is “remote,” he’s midway through a throwing program and could begin throwing off a mound sometime in early August. He’s currently throwing on flat ground from a distance of 90 feet.
Graveman, 33, also offered further specifics on the nature of his surgery. (The team did not provide any details at the time of their announcement.) The right-hander had a pair of anchors installed in his labrum in addition to a cleanup of his rotator cuff. Graveman provides further details and offers plenty of quotes on his outlook and mindset that Astros fans, in particular, will want to check out in full.
In 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros last season, Graveman pitched to a combined 3.12 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate, 13 holds and eight saves. While Brown suggested at the time of the surgery that Graveman’s likely season-ending injury wouldn’t intensify his team’s bullpen pursuit in free agency, the Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year contract just three days after announcing that Graveman had undergone his procedure.
Astros Place Justin Verlander On Injured List
The Astros announced that they have placed right-hander Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list due to neck discomfort, retroactive to June 16. Right-hander Nick Hernandez has been recalled from Triple-A as the corresponding move.
Verlander, 41, was supposed to start for the Astros on Saturday but was scratched due to the discomfort in his neck. The pitcher told Chandler Rome of The Athletic that the issue has been bothering him for weeks. “When I was out there, I felt like it wasn’t really bothering me, but when I go home and sit down and really think about it, I think it’s too much of a coincidence that my mechanics were really thrown off at the same time I was dealing with this,” Verlander said Saturday afternoon.
The hope seemed to be that Verlander would recover with a few days of extra rest. “If this was playoff time, I’d like to think I’d be out there,” Verlander said. “But that pattern where it’s every day getting a little bit better, I think with the off days, it’s best to let it fully resolve itself and I hope it does.”
Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass. Earlier today, Rome relayed on X that manager Joe Espada told Matt Thomas of SportsTalk 790 that Verlander’s progress has been “slower than we expected.”
It seems that the decision has been made to let him rest up and get the issue taken care of. Verlander had a 3.26 earned run average on the year before his last two starts each resulted in four earned runs allowed over five innings, bumping him up to 3.95. Perhaps there’s good sense in giving him a quick breather to get healthy as opposed to continuing to send him out there when he’s not at his best.
Though it may end up just being a brief stint on the injured list, it’s still notable for the Astros, as rotation health has been the unfortunate top story of their poor season to this point. They have known since last year that they would be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. for most of this season, as they both underwent significant surgery last year. Since the season started, they have lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery.
Verlander has also been away from that group, as he started the season on the IL due to right shoulder inflammation. He was reinstated in the middle of April but is now back on the shelf again. That leaves the Astros with a rotation consisting of Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Blanco have been good and Brown has recovered from a rough start, but Arrighetti is currently an ERA of 6.37.
The larger concern may be the lack of exciting options to step up and join that group while Verlander is out. J.P. France is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t pitched since late April due to a shoulder injury. Blair Henley is also on the 40-man but has uninspiring results in Triple-A this year and was lit up in his major league debut earlier this season. Eric Lauer is in the system on a minor league deal but has a 6.30 for Sugar Land at the moment.
Thanks in part to the ongoing rotation problems, the Astros are 33-39, their worst start in years. They are seven games out of a playoff spot and still have time to turn things around but Verlander’s absence will exacerbate a problem that has been going on all year.
Astros Notes: Verlander, Rotation, Tucker
The Astros scratched veteran ace Justin Verlander from his start against the Tigers earlier today due to discomfort in his neck. Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti stepped in to make a spot start in Verlander’s stead, but was shelled for seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work before he was removed in the second inning.
Verlander spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) prior to the game this afternoon and indicated that his neck has been bothering him for “a couple of weeks” but that he’s attempted to pitch through it to this point. The pain caused him to cut his usual bullpen between starts short earlier this week, but both Verlander and manager Joe Espada indicated that the issue likely won’t result in a trip to the injured list. As Rome notes, the club has three scheduled days off in the next two weeks that will offer the club the ability to be more flexible regarding Verlander’s schedule in the short term.
That being said, the possibility of Verlander missing time is surely a concerning one for the Astros. After all, the club recently lost both Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier for the season due to Tommy John surgery, and both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have spent the entire season on the IL to this point. Neither Garcia nor McCullers are expected back until after the All Star break as things stand; Garcia appears to be closer to a return after throwing a live batting practice last week (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) while McCullers threw a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday. Garcia is expected to begin a rehab assignment after “two or three” more live batting practice sessions, while McCullers appears to be “on schedule” for a return sometime in August.
With both Garcia and McCullers more than a month away from contributing, the Astros are limited in terms of internal pitching depth behind their current rotation of Verlander, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti. J.P. France and Blair Henley are both in the minors on the 40-man roster, but France last pitched on April 30 due to a shoulder injury while Henley allowed five runs in his lone big league start earlier this year while recording just one out. Right-hander Eric Lauer is pitching at Triple-A while on a minor league deal with the club and seems likely to be the top non-roster depth option available to the Astros, although he struggled to a 6.56 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work with the Brewers last year and has posted similar numbers at Triple-A with the Pirates and Astros this season.
In other injury news, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart provided an update regarding the status of outfielder Kyle Tucker earlier today. Tucker has been on the injured list for just over a week due to a right shin contusion after fouling a ball off of his leg, and McTaggart noted today that Tucker is no longer relying on crutches while moving around the dugout and clubhouse. While that’s certainly a good sign, McTaggart also noted that the soreness hasn’t completely dissipated for Tucker, who is still walking with a limp. According to manager Joe Espada (as relayed by McTaggart), Tucker may end up needing to go on a minor league rehab assignment before he returns if he can’t begin running “in the next day or two.”
A lengthier absence for Tucker would be an unfortunate turn of events for the Astros, as the 27-year-old was on an MVP-caliber pace at the time of his injury. In 60 games with Houston this year, Tucker has slashed a fantastic .266/.395/.584 in 262 trips to the plate while clubbing 19 home runs and stealing 10 bases. That’s good for a fantastic 176 wRC+ even in spite of the slump Tucker fell into in the weeks immediately prior to his injury, where he hit just .150/.255/.300 in his final 47 trips to the plate before landing on the IL. Trey Cabbage and Chas McCormick have split time in right field while Tucker has been on the shelf, with Yordan Alvarez and Mauricio Dubon handling left.
2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition
We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.
That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.
- Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee
Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.
The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.
It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.
- Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee
Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.
Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.
- Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end
As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.
His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results
Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.
He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.
Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.
- Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end
In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.
A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.
- Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option
Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.
Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.
- Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee
The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.
Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.
- Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee
Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.
- Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option
The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.
It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.
- Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option
Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.
If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.
- Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option
Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.
On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.
- Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts
Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.
The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.
- Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.
Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.
- Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee
The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.
- Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee
Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.
The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.
- Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.
- Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option
The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.
Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.
- Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.
He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.
- Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched
Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.
At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.
- Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option
Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.
He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.
Astros Notes: Verlander, Pressly, Brown
The Astros are out to a slow start this year, currently sitting 15-25, ahead of just the White Sox and Angels in the American League standings. That’s led to early speculation about them possibly trading some pieces at this summer’s deadline.
General manager Dana Brown was recently on MLB Network and said that he “can’t predict any scenario” where the Astros sell at the deadline. But as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that channel is usually on in clubhouses and he may have decided to portray public confidence with the players watching.
There will be many interesting decisions for the club to make this year, though the on-field performance will obviously play a huge factor in how they make those choices. There is still time for them to climb back into contention, with the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently giving them a 39.6% chance to make the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them slightly better than a coin toss at 51.3%.
If the club does end up in selling position, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to tear the roster down to the studs. Cristian Javier is under contract through 2027, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader through 2028 and Jose Altuve through 2029. Players like Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick and Bryan Abreu are arbitration-eligible through 2026, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers through 2027, while Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are controllable even beyond that.
There are also some guys closer to free agency that the club may have to think about trading if they can’t climb in the standings in the next two months. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Justin Verlander is as well, though he has a conditional player option for 2025. Ryan Pressly is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though his 2025 mutual option becomes guaranteed if he makes 50 appearances this year. That’s a number he’s hit in the past seven full seasons and he’s already at 16 this year, meaning he’ll vest that option as long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy each have one more arbitration season remaining before they are slated for free agency after 2025.
Though the club may have to at least field some calls on that group, there will be some complications with Verlander and Pressly. As mentioned by Rome, both players have opt-outs and would prefer to stay in Houston. That tracks with last week’s report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who also highlighted Verlander’s love of Houston.
Perhaps that means the most likely scenario is both players stay for next year. Verlander will have a player option if he gets to 140 innings this year and could trigger it, or perhaps re-sign even if he doesn’t make it to that line. With Pressly on pace to lock in another year on his deal and not jazzed about being traded, perhaps he just stays as well. Verlander is now 41 years old and Pressly is 35, so they may have to think about whether their love for Houston is strong enough for them to stick around and play out the string on a lost season, as opposed to competing for another ring elsewhere. But they have a few months to think that over.
For now, the club has to ponder its roster construction as they try to win the ball games in front of them. At the start of the month, the club began a stretch of playing 29 games in 30 days and manager Joe Espada said that the club would be considering a six-man rotation.
They haven’t exactly stuck to that plan initially. Javier started Saturday’s game and only recorded four outs, which led to Brown throwing five innings of long relief. Whether Brown will stick in the bullpen for a while or make another start seems undecided right now. The next three contests are slated to be started by Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco and Valdez, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on X, but with Espada telling Kawahara that either Javier or Brown could take the ball on Thursday. The club doesn’t have an off-day until May 23, and then plays another 13 straight after that. Espada says they will have a six-man rotation at some point but it’s not exactly clear how often Brown will be starting or relieving.
Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?
With the Astros out to a rough start here in 2024, speculation has been mounting that they may have to consider a deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and would be a logical candidate for a trade, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today throws some cold water on the possibility.
Verlander has a full no-trade clause, which he waived last summer in order to go from the Mets to the Astros. Nightengale reports that the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were all heavily involved for the veteran righty, but that he would only waive his no-trade to return to Houston since he loves playing there. Nightengale infers from this that Verlander isn’t likely to waive his no-trade again in order to be sent packing from Houston.
Despite Verlander’s love of being an Astro, it’s possible he will have to weigh that against his desire to compete. He cited a desire to win as his reason for signing with the Mets, though that plan didn’t work out and he eventually returned to Houston in his pursuit of another ring. The Astros are 12-22 at the moment and face a steep climb back into contention. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs have dropped to 39.9%, after being at 86.2% at the start of the season. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic, however, still giving them a 64.1% chance.
If the club can’t get back into the mix by July, perhaps Verlander would warm to the idea of moving to another contender, especially since he’s now 41 years old and is surely aware that he may only have so many chances left. He has a 2.08 earned run average so far this year and should receive plenty of interest. As Bob mentioned, teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were trying to get him last summer, and previous reporting also had clubs like the Giants, Atlanta, Padres and Orioles on the phone.
Verlander may not be a pure rental since he has a conditional player option for 2025. As part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023, if he throws 140 innings in 2024, he has a $35MM player option for 2025.
Verlander started the season on the injured list, which slightly lowered his chances of getting to 140 innings, but he still has plenty of time to get there. He didn’t make his debut this year until April 19 and has only logged 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far. But he also started last year on the IL, not debuting until early May, then stayed healthy the rest of the way and got to 162 1/3 innings. Another injury absence could tighten things, but he currently has plenty of room to get to 140 as things stand.
Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire such players at the deadline because of the varying outcomes. If the player finishes the season strong, he will leave after being on the club for just a couple of months. If he performs poorly or gets injured, the team will be stuck with him for another year. But it’s worth pointing out that the extreme downside of a really significant injury won’t be present. Per Baseball Prospectus, the option also has a condition that “an independent physical exam determines Verlander does not have a right arm injury which would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day 2025.”
That clause would protect clubs against the nightmare scenario where they trade for Verlander, he crosses the 140-inning mark but then requires Tommy John surgery or some other significant procedure. In that situation, Verlander would not have the right to exercise his player option. There’s still the chance of Verlander simply struggling due to his advancing age and triggering the player option, but there’s some downside protection there as well. As part of last year’s trade, the Mets agreed to cover half the option if it vests.
Verlander is making $43.33MM this year but the Mets are covering $31.3MM of that, as reported by Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press at the time of last year’s trade. That means the Astros are only on the hook for about $12MM this year, which will be down closer to $4MM by the time the deadline rolls around.
Despite his age, Verlander has continued to pitch extremely well and could be highly sought after this summer. His peripherals don’t really support his 2.08 ERA so far this year, since he has struck out just 19.1% of opponents while giving out walks at a 10.3% clip. He’s had help keeping runs off the board so far from a .239 batting average on balls in play and 93% strand rate. But it’s also a small sample size of three outings after being on the IL.
Last year wasn’t quite as dominant as his Cy Young-winning season in 2022, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA over his 27 starts. His 21.5% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he also limited walks to a 6.7% clip.
Ultimately, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether Verlander is traded or not. The performance of the club will obviously be one of them, as Verlander would naturally be off the table if they get back into the playoff mix. If they stay out, Verlander’s feelings towards Houston might have him leaning against approving a trade, but he may prefer competing elsewhere if it’s a lost season for the Astros. It’s also unknown if the club would prefer to eat what they owe to Verlander to improve the prospect return, versus getting some other club to take on the money as a way of reducing their competitive balance tax calculation. Verlander staying healthy and pitching well will also be important, of course, especially with the player option up in the air.
There’s also the club’s long-term plans to consider. Max Scherzer wasn’t planning to leave the Mets last year until he found out the club was planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, which prompted him to approve a deal to the Rangers. If the Astros stay out of contention through the summer, they will have some tough decisions to make. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent and would be a logical trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy are slated for free agency after 2025, meaning they could be kept for another chance at competing next year or could be made available this summer as part of a larger reset. If that latter possibility opens up, it seems fair to assume that Verlander’s desire to stay in Houston would diminish, for the rest of this year and 2025.
What do you think is most likely for Verlander in the months to come? Have your say in the poll below!
Will Justin Verlander be traded this summer?
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Yes 50% (3,006)
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No 50% (2,994)
Total votes: 6,000
Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation
Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).
Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ‘Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.
Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).
Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ‘Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).
France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.
Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.
The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.
Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.
Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.
That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ‘Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.
Astros To Activate Justin Verlander On Friday
The Astros will reinstate Justin Verlander from the injured list prior to Friday’s game against the Nationals, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Verlander will start Friday’s game in what’ll be his season debut. The three-time Cy Young winner opened the season on the 15-day injured list after he was slowed by shoulder fatigue early in spring training.
Verlander’s return is a boon for an Astros rotation that has been hammered by injuries, even beyond the expected absence of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr., both of whom are still on the mend from surgeries that ended their 2023 seasons. Houston saw Verlander slowed by shoulder troubles early in spring, lost Jose Urquidy to a forearm strain and recently placed Framber Valdez on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation.
The Astros have already cycled through multiple depth starters, including rookies Blair Henley and Spencer Arrighetti. Even with an unexpectedly dominant start to the year for Ronel Blanco — previously the team’s sixth starter but now a vital member of the staff who’s already thrown a no-hitter in 2024 — Houston starters have the fifth-worst ERA in Major League Baseball at 5.13. The quartet of Henley, Arrighetti, J.P. France and Hunter Brown have combined to yield a staggering 44 runs in just 36 1/3 innings of work.
At 41 years old, it’s fair to wonder how long Verlander has left as a high-end starter. But he looked the part in 2023 when he tossed 162 innings of 3.22 ERA ball, fanned 21.5% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate, and maintained a solid 94.4 mph average on his heater. He’s been tagged for an ugly 11 earned runs over seven innings in two minor league rehab appearances, but he’s also fanned nine of 39 opponents in that time (23.1%) and issued just two walks (5.1%).
Verlander’s return should at least prevent the ‘Stros from needing to give any more starts to any of the team’s rookies for the time being. He’ll step into the rotation alongside Cristian Javier, Blanco, France and Brown. Houston will hope for better results from sophomores France and Brown, both of whom were solid rotation pieces in their 2023 rookie showings. (Though France wilted in rather glaring fashion down the stretch last year.) Brown, in particular, was one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to last year’s debut. He’s had an awful start to the season, headlined by a nine-run shellacking at the hands of the Royals, but he held a powerhouse Braves lineup to two runs over six innings in a rebound effort last night.
Turning back to Verlander specifically, the timing of his return bears particular importance. His two-year, $86.666MM contract contains a vesting $35MM player option for a third season. If he’s able to throw 140 innings in 2024, he’ll have the right to exercise that player option and lock himself in at $35MM next year — provided he finishes the season without an arm injury that would prevent him from pitching in 2025. If his shoulder causes further problems and sends him back to the injured list, the conditions of that player option will become far more pertinent. As it stands, the future Hall of Famer should have ample time to reach the requisite 140 frames.