AL West Notes: Verlander, García, Santos, Brash, Sasaki
A pair of Astros starting pitchers are making progress on their way back from injuries. Justin Verlander spoke to reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) after a successful batting practice session against live hitters on Monday. He believes his next step will be a minor league rehab assignment. Manager Joe Espada provided a similar update, telling Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that his ace “should be ready to go out on a rehab assignment” as long as he “comes back tomorrow feeling well.” Espada suggested Verlander would need more than one rehab appearance before he can return to the Astros, but the skipper did not provide an exact timeline for the three-time Cy Young winner’s return. Verlander has recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines this spring. Still, he needs more time to build up his arm strength before pitching in an MLB game.
Meanwhile, Luis García has begun to throw off a mound, and Espada says the righty is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a UCL injury (per Rome). The 27-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last May. While he still has plenty of work to put in before he can return to the majors, the Astros are hopeful he can rejoin the rotation by July if all goes well (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Over 64 games (62 starts) from 2021-23, García pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 3.86 SIERA.
More news from around the AL West…
- The Mariners received some good news today when reliever Gregory Santos‘ MRI came back clean (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). He had been dealing with a flareup of inflammation in the strained lat that kept him out for all of spring training. According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Santos needed the MRI to come back clean in order to resume his throwing program; the hard-throwing right-hander has now begun “light baseball activities” (per Jude). The Mariners have not yet provided a timeline for his return, but they are surely hoping to get him back sooner rather than later. Santos pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.32 SIERA in 60 games for the White Sox last season.
- In other Mariners bullpen news, Matt Brash is making progress as he recovers from right elbow inflammation. While Mariners GM Justin Hollander would not provide an exact timeline for any of his injured arms, he suggested that Brash is the furthest along in his rehab (per Jude). Like Santos, Brash is a hard-throwing right-hander coming off a breakout year. In 78 games last season, he posted a 3.06 ERA and 2.86 SIERA, winning nine games and collecting 24 holds.
- Eight teams recently sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki pitch in Japan. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, and Yankees were previously reported to be four of those clubs, and now Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reveals that a scout from the Rangers was also in attendance. That leaves three remaining mystery teams present at Sasaki’s latest starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines.
AL West Notes: Snell, Angels, Jung, Pollock, Verlander, Astros
In a recent edition of the Willard and Dibs podcast, ESPN’s Buster Olney predicted Blake Snell will sign with the Angels, based on “conversations with people…who know Blake” and Snell’s apparent enjoyment of pitching in southern California. Olney added the natural “depending on where the money falls” caveat, and things could also change depending on how the pitching market might yet play out, in regards to injuries suddenly changing the outlook for a would-be contender. Agent Scott Boras said this week that he’d been hearing from some new suitors in regards to Snell and Jordan Montgomery since Spring Training opened, though both pitchers remain unsigned as we’re now into the second week of March.
The Angels were linked to Snell back in December, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writing at the time that Snell was “their priority” as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace Shohei Ohtani. There hasn’t been much public movement between the two sides since, though the Halos also haven’t done anything else to upgrade their rotation, as their offseason pitching moves have been largely focused on bullpen additions. The Angels have traditionally been reluctant to sign pitchers to big multi-year commitments, though since Snell is reportedly open to taking a shorter-term contract (likely with at least one opt-out clause), this could help find common ground towards a landing spot in Anaheim.
Other items from around the AL West…
- It has been about three weeks since Josh Jung was shut down due to calf soreness, and the Rangers aren’t yet ready to him “ratchet up his running program,” according to Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link). Another MRI on Jung indicated some improvement with his calf, but the team is still being cautious, which is understandable given Jung’s important role as the starting third baseman. Jung has already made his mark with a big rookie season that included an All-Star nod and a World Series ring, with Jung hitting .308/.329/.538 slash line in 70 postseason plate appearances. It seems possible that Jung might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list if he misses much more Spring Training time, though the injury doesn’t appear to be overly serious.
- AJ Pollock is at the Mariners‘ spring camp in something of an unofficial coaching mentorship role, Shannon Drayer of MyNorthwest.com writes. MLB Trade Rumors has learned that Pollock is still exploring his playing options and hasn’t officially retired, though since the longtime outfielder just turned 36, it isn’t a surprise that he might be exploring what’s next once he does decide to hang up the cleats. Pollock played in 49 games for Seattle last season before being traded to the Giants at the deadline, and hit only .165/.215/.308 in 144 total plate appearances. Pollock has an .892 OPS over 422 PA just as recently as the 2021 season, though he had a subpar year with the White Sox in 2022 before his bigger performance dropoff last year.
- Justin Verlander told MLB.com and other reporters that he threw around 60 pitches during a bullpen session on Friday, and is up to lower-90s velocity on his fastball. It seems like another positive step for Verlander as he continues to ramp up after a minor shoulder problem delayed his start to Spring Training. The Astros have already announced that Verlander will begin the season on the 15-day IL, though that placement is just to give him more time to get ready, rather than any true concern over his health.
- Since both Verlander and J.P. France have been slowed by shoulder issues, the Astros rotation is a bit of a question mark as Opening Day approaches. While the team gauges what arms might fill in for Verlander or France on a temporary basis, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that Houston will be in particular need of starters due to a busy early schedule. The Astros play 20 games in the first 21 days of the season, and Rome feels the club could even go with a six-man rotation in April to keep everyone as fresh as possible. That would open the door for Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to both make the rotation if France also needs some IL time, or one of Blanco/Bielak could work as a long reliever.
Justin Verlander To Begin Season On Injured List
Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.
Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.
Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ‘Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.
The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.
Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.
It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.
Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.
AL Notes: Royals, Astros, McKay
The Royals are entering the 2024 season with elevated expectations after the club spent more than $100MM in free agency this winter on top of a massive 11-year extension for franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. With that influx of free agent talent comes increased competition for spots on the club’s Opening Day roster. That excess of talent is particularly clear in the outfield, where manager Matt Quatraro recently indicated to reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the club’s logjam is likely to result in the club carrying five outfielders on its roster to open the 2024 campaign.
Kansas City signed veteran outfield Hunter Renfroe to be the club’s regular right fielder, and Rogers suggests that glove-first center fielder and former top catching prospect MJ Melendez are the favorites to receive regular playing time on the grass alongside him. That leaves two spots on the bench available for a group that includes Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, and Dairon Blanco. A former top prospect in the Braves farm system, Waters was shipped to the Royals midseason back in 2022 and has since slashed a decent .231/.306/.402 in 130 games with the club. Velazquez, meanwhile, joined the club at last year’s trade deadline in a deal with the Cubs and displayed prodigious power down the stretch with 14 home runs in just 40 games. Blanco, 31 next month, is by far the oldest of the trio but performed well in a part-time role last season, going 24-for-29 on the basepaths while slashing .258/.324/.452 in 69 games that saw him spend time in all three outfield spots.
With the club expecting to carry five outfielders on the roster to open the season, that significantly limits the paths to an Opening Day roster spot for other bench options. Veterans Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson both signed major league deals this past winter and appear locked into utility roles on the bench, and with Melendez now a full-time outfielder the Royals will have to enter the season with Freddy Fermin on the roster as the backup to veteran backstop Salvador Perez. That would seemingly leave little room on the club’s roster for Nick Pratto, the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. The first baseman has 144 big league games under his belt but has yet to establish himself in the majors, slashing just .216/.295/.364 in a combined 527 trips to the plate during that time.
More from around the American League…
- Astros manager Joe Espada announced to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France will throw bullpen sessions tomorrow. Espada indicated last week that Verlander’s next bullpen would determine not only whether or not he would then progress to live hitting but also his readiness for Opening Day. If Verlander begins the season on the shelf, it’s possible his spot in the rotation could go to France, assuming that the 28-year-old avoids an injured list stint of his own. The righty impressed with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings of work with the big league club last year, almost entirely out of the starting rotation. Should Verlander be healthy enough to make his Opening Day start, France would likely be left to compete for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with the likes of Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak.
- Rays southpaw Brendan McKay made his first professional appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season today, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to the lefty following the appearance. Per Topkin, McKay expressed satisfaction with his progress, indicating that his curveball is “getting better” while his fastball, which Topkin adds sat at 90 while touching 91, is “in a good spot” to gain more velocity going forward. McKay typically sat at 94 with his heater when he last pitched in the majors in 2019, though the former top prospect and fourth-overall pick of the 2017 draft has dealt with both Tommy John surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since then. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, it’s easy to imagine McKay impacting the club’s pitching staff at some point this season if he can remain healthy.
Astros Notes: Verlander, Whitley, McCormick
Astros ace Justin Verlander discussed his ongoing shoulder issues with reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) today, and his comments shed little light on whether the veteran righty will be able to take the mound on Opening Day next month.
“We still got some time, obviously it’s tight, but things are progressing,” Verlander told reporters, as relayed by Rome. “…We’re not even looking a week out or two weeks out, so it’s kind of hard to forecast anything past that.”
Verlander went on to make clear that he’s feeling no discomfort in his shoulder, adding that “Every day I touch the mound has been progression.” While the veteran ace has yet to face live hitting this spring, Rome adds that manager Joe Espada indicated Verlander could start to face live hitting “at some point” after his next bullpen session, adding that said bullpen would likely “determine” Verlander’s readiness for Opening Day.
Verlander, who celebrated his 41st birthday last week, followed up his AL Cy Young award winning campaign in 2022 with a solid 2023 split between the Mets and Astros. In 27 starts between the two clubs, the right-hander pitched to a strong 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings of work. That being said, his 21.5% strikeout rate last year was the lowest he had posted since 2015, leaving him with a 3.85 FIP that puts him closer to “solid mid-rotation arm” than “surefire ace.” Even if Verlander isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in his late 30s now that he’s entered his 40s, however, the right-hander figures to be a key piece of the Astros rotation alongside Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Should Verlander miss time to start the season, that would likely leave Houston to lean more heavily on their back-of-the-rotation arms such as Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown.
More from out of Houston…
- Espada also provided an update regarding the status of right-hander Forrest Whitley, who Rome relays has been dealing with inflammation in his middle finger. Espada indicated that while that inflammation has now subsided, Whitley will be sat down for the next week on a no-throw program. Once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport, the Astros’ first-round pick in the 2016 draft has not yet made his big league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020 due to a lengthy injury history and a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. Whitley has struggled badly as a started at the Triple-A level, with an 8.04 ERA in 87 1/3 career innings at the level, but figures to work exclusively out of the bullpen going forward and entered camp with a chance to compete for a spot in the club’s bullpen this spring.
- Outfielder Chas McCormick is expected to step into a larger role with Houston in 2024, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart notes that both Espada and GM Dana Brown have indicated that McCormick will be an everyday player this season. The 28-year-old slashed an impressive .273/.353/.489 (133 wRC+) last year but appeared in only 115 games while making 457 trips to the plate. The retirement of veteran left fielder Michael Brantley has opened up additional playing time in the club’s outfield mix, however, and it appears that McCormick could be a major beneficiary of that playing time. With Jake Meyers as the club’s likely starting center fielder, that figures to push McCormick to left for the most part, though McTaggart indicates that McCormick could see time in center on days where Yainer Diaz moves from behind the plate to DH, pushing superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez into left field.
Astros Notes: Verlander, France, Framber, Bullpen
Astros camp kicked off last week with the revelation that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France were both slightly behind schedule due to shoulder troubles. Both, however, have been progressing nicely over the past week-plus. Verlander tossed a bullpen session today, after which manager Joe Espada told reporters he’s “encouraged” with his ace’s progression from that shoulder issue (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). France, meanwhile, pitched off a mound Wednesday — his first time doing so after being limited to flat ground work at the beginning of camp (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).
It’s a positive step for both pitchers, though the team still hasn’t declared with any certainty that both players will be ready for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, Verlander would be the presumptive favorite to start Opening Day. France, meanwhile, figures to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation after impressing as a 28-year-old rookie in 2023. Houston manager Joe Espada has raised the possibility of a six-man rotation this year, which would allow France to continue starting alongside Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy. That’s not set in stone at this point and will of course be dependent on how both righties continue to progress.
On the topic of Valdez, Chandler Rome of the Athletic wrote earlier this week that the left-hander says he has not yet received any sort of extension offer from the team this winter. Houston general manager Dana Brown listed Valdez as an extension target last offseason not long after being hired, and while the team and Valdez discussed parameters last spring, there was a sufficient enough gap that no deal was reached.
Valdez, 30, is controllable through the 2025 season. He and the Astros agreed to a $12.1MM salary for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in doing so. He’s finished ninth or better on each of the past two Cy Young ballots and touts a 3.13 ERA, a 23.5% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 63% ground-ball rate in 534 regular season innings, dating back to 2021. Valdez’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors earlier in the winter, but a deal never seemed especially likely and now feels even less plausible with Verlander and France behind schedule. If anything, Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to constantly be adding to his pitching depth.
Elsewhere on the pitching staff, the Astros are set for an unusual amount of competition in the bullpen this spring, Kawahara writes in a full column. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are locked into late-inning roles, and Rafael Montero‘s three-year, $34.5MM contract (covering the 2023-25 seasons) assures him a spot as well. But the Astros lost Phil Maton and Hector Neris to free agency already, and they don’t seem especially likely to re-sign Ryne Stanek, either. They’ll also be without Kendall Graveman, who’ll miss the season due to shoulder surgery.
Among the options to step into prominent bullpen roles are righties Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Dylan Coleman, Shawn Dubin, Seth Martinez, Forrest Whitley and Oliver Ortega. All are on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Parker Mushinski and Bennett Sousa. Righty Wander Suero is the most experienced non-roster invitee in camp.
Brown, the team’s general manager, tells Kawahara that the team will “take a close look” at Coleman in particular. Both Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller praised Coleman’s raw stuff and cited a belief that the Astros can get him back to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.78 ERA, fanned nearly a quarter of his opponents and sat just shy of 98 mph with his heater. The 2023 season was a disaster for Coleman, however, as he posted an 8.84 ERA and walked 19 batters in 18 1/3 innings with Kansas City.
Sousa, too, will get strong consideration. Brown noted to Kawahara that if he’d been acquired prior to the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline last year, he’d likely have been on Houston’s playoff rosters. Espada indicated that he doesn’t feel compelled to have a second lefty in the ‘pen beyond Hader and is focused primarily on just carrying the best group the team has, regardless of handedness. Still, Sousa posted interesting strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates in a small sample last season (29.4%, 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively) and has fanned nearly a third of his career opponents in parts of three Triple-A seasons.
Justin Verlander, J.P. France Behind Schedule Due To Shoulder Issues
Astros right-hander Justin Verlander is a few weeks behind his normal Spring Training schedule due to a shoulder issue. He spoke to members of the media about it today, with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relaying video on X of the veteran discussing the situation. General manager Dana Brown also relayed that righty J.P. France is dealing with shoulder inflammation, though Brown isn’t especially worried since both pitchers are playing catch. “If they were shut down, it would be more concerning,” Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.
“I’m a little bit behind schedule right now, had a little hiccup early on that’s resolved itself but I have to be really cautious with how I’m building up,” Verlander said. “I guess my body doesn’t respond the same at 40 as it does at 25. So, you know, I’m a couple weeks behind.” When asked to elaborate on the hiccup, he continued: “When I first started playing catch, I usually shut it down for a while. This time, when I shut it down and picked the ball back up, my shoulder didn’t feel so great, so kind of had to take a step back and kind of just really be diligent about my buildup.” When asked about Opening Day, he said it would depend on how things go in the next few weeks.
It seems like the concern is fairly minor at this point, though it’s less than ideal for the club that a couple members of its rotation mix are already dealing with issues just as camp is opening. The Astros are already set to open the season with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García on the injured list, with both of those pitchers having undergone significant surgeries last year. Brown told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that those two guys are on track for returns in the second half, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
Without McCullers or García, Houston’s rotation mix would project to be Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown, with one spot available for someone like France, José Urquidy or Brandon Bielak. If Verlander and/or France end up requiring a stint on the injured list to start the year, everyone would be moved up a peg or two on the chart.
Verlander, who turns 41 next week, also dealt with a shoulder issue last spring while with the Mets. At the end of March, he was placed on the IL with a teres major strain and didn’t make his season debut until May. He was ultimately able to make 27 starts on the year between the Mets and Astros after a midseason trade, but with diminished stuff from his 2022 Cy Young-winning year. His ERA went from 1.75 to 3.22 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 21.5% with the velo on all his pitches slightly lower as well. He did seem to get better as the season went along, however, with a 3.60 ERA and 19.7% strikeout rate in the first half compared to a 2.92 ERA and 23% strikeout rate in the second.
France, 29 in April, tossed 136 1/3 innings last year with a 3.83 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He’s obviously less essential to the club’s rotation than Verlander, not even guaranteed a roster spot since he has options. But every club has to deal with injuries and reach into their depth at some point during the year. He would have been a candidate to step up if Verlander needed to miss time but that could be in jeopardy if France is himself delayed.
Brown has frequently stated that he’s always looking to add pitching and made similar comments today, with video relayed by McTaggart. “I’m always in the business of trying to add starter depth. I think the season, like I said before, it’s 162 games. If you get a situation where you can trade for a starter or if you can sign a starter, I think you should do it if it makes sense budget wise and all that. But at the end of the day, I’m always in the market for pitching. I’ve said that since day one. I don’t think you can have enough pitching in 162 games.”
The Astros are in unprecedented territory in terms of their payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their highest Opening Day payroll was $188MM in 2021. Roster Resource pegs them at $240MM for this year and also has their competitive balance tax figure at $255MM. They have never paid the tax before, as they only time they went over was in 2020, when the payments were waived in the shortened season. This year’s line is $237MM, so they’re already well over.
If the club decides they need reinforcements, there are plenty of names still available in free agency. That includes marquee guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery but also more affordable names like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Given the club’s payroll and the minor nature of the injuries, it doesn’t seem likely that the club will suddenly go out and splurge, but it will be a situation worth monitoring if another pitcher suffers an injury or a setback is suffered by Verlander or France. Despite Brown’s assertion that he’s always looking for starting depth, they haven’t signed any veterans to minor league deals so could perhaps look to add some non-roster guys in the coming days.
Texas Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Tucker, Verlander
While the Rangers have gone 7-0 so far through the postseason, ace right-hander Jacob deGrom has been forced to watch his club’s success from home after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. The long time Mets righty sat down with Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently to discuss his recovery process four months removed from the surgery.
Fortunately, it appears that deGrom’s rehab process is going rather well. A typical timeline for a pitcher in deGrom’s situation would be somewhere between 14 and 18 months before returning to a big league mound but deGrom expressed optimism that he could return to the Rangers at the earlier end of that window, with August 2024 as a stated goal. Of course, there’s a long road ahead to reach that point, though Sherman notes that deGrom has regained full range of motion at this point and will be able to return to throwing shortly after the new year, with a mound in sight come Spring Training.
If deGrom is indeed healthy and effective come the stretch run in 2024, he’d surely provide a massive boost to a Rangers club that dominated for much of the 2023 regular season and has seemingly found a second wind during the postseason in spite of a difficult stretch run that saw the club slow to a 38-33 record in the second half this season. Ignoring any possible offseason additions, deGrom would return to a 2024 rotation group that projects to feature former Mets co-ace Max Scherzer, veterans Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, southpaw Andrew Heaney, and right-hander Dane Dunning. When on the mound for the Rangers this year, deGrom was nothing short of excellent with a 2.67 ERA and 1.54 FIP across six starts. His current contract runs through the end of the 2027 season, with a 2028 club option that triggered as a result of him undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this year.
More from around the state of Texas…
- Sticking with the Rangers, manager Bruce Bochy spoke to reporters this afternoon regarding tomorrow’s Game 3 of the ALCS, where Scherzer is expected to take the mound in a competitive setting for the first time in over a month due to a teres major strain. While Bochy didn’t specify whether or not Scherzer would have any sort of limitations on him headed into tomorrow’s game, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic relayed that Bochy referred to 70 pitches as a “baseline” for Scherzer. That’s in line with his previously reported 68-pitch simulated game prior to the ALCS. If Scherzer is indeed limited in some capacity during tomorrow’s game, the Rangers have plenty of long relief options available to them, including Cody Bradford and Martin Perez.
- Meanwhile, Astros manager Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the ALCS, in which they trail their division rival 0-2. Baker noted that he’s spoken to outfielder Kyle Tucker about a potential move down the batting order, though he emphasized that such a move would be temporary. It’s been a rough postseason for Tucker, as the 26-year-old has gone hitless in the ALCS so far after slashing just .143/.294/.214 in 17 trips to the plate against the Twins during the ALDS. Baker did not, however, indicate whether or not the club is considering turning to veteran ace and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on short rest for Game 4, saying that the club hasn’t discussed the possibility yet. Verlander would be on three days of rest for Game 4, a situation in which the Astros have used him in the playoffs before. As Rome notes, Verlander struggled against the Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS back in 2019 on three days of rest, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:
- The Mets decided to sell and sell big, maybe even for 2024 (1:15)
- The AL West turned into an arms race, with the Astros getting Justin Verlander and the Rangers getting Max Scherzer, among other deals (15:15)
- The Padres decided to go for it, holding onto Blake Snell and Josh Hader, as well as acquiring others (23:25)
- Cubs also decide to go for it, holding onto Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman, acquiring Jeimer Candelario (26:55)
- The Reds were surprisingly quiet (29:35)
- The Twins also sat on their hands (33:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane – listen here
- All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers – listen here
- Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays – listen here
Astros Acquire Justin Verlander From Mets
Justin Verlander is back in Houston. The Astros re-acquired the defending Cy Young winner and cash for outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Houston designated infielder Joe Perez for assignment in a corresponding 40-man move.
The Mets are paying a combined $35MM of Verlander’s 2023-24 salary. They’d pay half of his $35MM salary in 2025 if his option vests. In all, they’re paying as much as $52.5MM of the nearly $93MM that could still be paid out on his deal, pending that option.
Verlander, 40, was with the Astros from 2017-22 and departed as a free agent this offseason to sign for a record-tying annual value in Queens. His two-year, $86.666MM contract tied his former Tigers teammate Max Scherzer‘s $43.333MM AAV on a three-year deal with the Mets, but the reunion between the two future Hall of Famers will only prove to last a few months before being spun into a rivalry. The Mets shipped Scherzer to the Rangers on Saturday and will now send Verlander to Texas’ top division rival.
The 2023 season began on a sour note for Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the year after suffering a strained teres major near the end of spring training. He’s in the midst of yet another strong season, though his performance in 2023 isn’t to the same level as it was in 2022, when he stunned the baseball world by capturing his third Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Verlander logged a ridiculous 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 175 innings last season. He’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 96 innings this year, and seen slight steps back in his average fastball (from 95.1 mph to 94.6mph), swinging-strike rate (11.6% to 10%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.9% to 35%).
That said, even if Verlander’s overall season numbers aren’t quite as dominant as in 2022, there’s little doubt that he’s a major upgrade to an Astros staff that has lost right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the season. Righty Cristian Javier also hit a wall recently and has been struggling, and the ‘Stros lost right-hander Jose Urquidy for three months due to shoulder troubles. Verlander’s return will add one of the most talented arms of the entire generation back to the front of a staff, where he’ll join Cy Young candidate Framber Valdez, standout rookie Hunter Brown, Javier and rookie J.P. France. When Urquidy returns in the near future, it’s possible the Astros will go to a six-man rotation to help monitor the workloads of Brown and France.
For the Mets, Verlander becomes the fourth notable veteran they’ve shipped out in the past week, joining Scherzer, David Robertson and Mark Canha. The Mets have picked up a strong package of prospects in doing so but also waved a white flag on a season in which their $350MM+ payroll was expected to make them legitimate World Series contenders. They’ve also completely wiped out their rotation, which now consists of Jose Quintana (a trade candidate himself), Carlos Carrasco, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi are candidates to step back into the starting staff.
The only near-term pitching prospect the Mets added in that slate of deals was righty Justin Jarvis, who came over from the Brewers and had been ranked near the back of their top 30 prospects on most publications. Given Carrasco’s status as a pending free agent and the unproven nature of Peterson, Megill and Lucchesi, they’ll head into the offseason with an enormous amount of work to do in rounding out the rotation. It’s a deep crop of free agents, headlined by names like Shohei Ohtani, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Mets plan to compete in 2024 — hardly a sure thing in the wake of their deadline activity — they’ll need to aggressively pursue rotation additions via either that free-agent market or the trade market.
The acquisition of Gilbert and Clifford could both help if the Mets choose the latter. While it’s certainly possible that both newly acquired outfielders fit into the long-term puzzle, that’s no sure thing — particularly for a team so willing to splash around in free agency. Brandon Nimmo is already signed for another seven years, so there are only two real long-term vacancies in the outfield anyhow.
Gilbert, 22, is the more advanced of the two prospects and the one who’s garnered more national fanfare. The Astros’ top pick in the 2022 draft, he’s already ascended to the Double-A level in his first full season of pro ball. The University of Tennessee standout laid waste to High-A pitching early in the season, slashing .360/.421/.686 in 95 plate appearances before an aggressive promotion to Double-A. He’s been a bit below average in terms of his overall output there, batting .241/.342/.371 in 264 plate appearances. However, Gilbert has also shown an advanced approach, walking in 12.5% of his Double-A plate appearances against a lower-than-average 17.5% strikeout rate.
MLB.com ranks Gilbert as the game’s No. 68 overall prospect, and FanGraphs has him at No. 49 on their list. Both reports give Gilbert a chance to be in the big leagues by next season, touting his plus speed, plus arm, great approach at the plate and growing power. He has a chance to stick in center field, perhaps pushing Nimmo to a corner if the veteran’s defense slips as he ages into his mid-30s. If not, Gilbert projects as a plus defender in an outfield corner. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com make note of his fiery personality, which could win over hometown fans while grating on opponents.
As for Clifford, he was taken ten rounds later in the same 2022 draft not for lack of talent but for a strong commitment to Vanderbilt University. The Mets convinced him to sign rather than attend college, offering him a huge $1.25MM bonus in the 11th round after most teams had passed assuming he’d head to school.
Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets that Gilbert and Clifford would’ve been his No. 1 and No. 2 Astros prospects, respectively, on the reranking of their system he’s set to publish following the deadline. Clifford hit just .247 but posted a .426 OBP in 101 plate appearances during his pro debut last year, and his rate stats in 2023 are outstanding: .291/.399/.520 in 371 plate appearances between Class-A and High-A. He’s slugged 18 home runs and 16 doubles, walking at a hearty 12.4% clip against a 24% strikeout rate.
FanGraphs had already bumped Clifford to the Astros’ No. 2 prospect — he’s now eighth in the Mets’ system on their rankings — crediting him with the potential to grow into 70-grade raw power. He’s a corner outfielder/first baseman with below-average speed and above-average arm strength. So long as his bat and overall offensive approach continue on their current trajectories, he could be in an outfield corner with occasional first base and DH time for the Mets at some point in 2025.
The Mets have done a nice job adding to their system, acquiring at least a pair of top-100-caliber prospects (Acuna, Gilbert) and another (Clifford) who could get there before long. They’ve paid a steep price to do so, however, gutting their 2023 roster and paying down close to $71MM on the Scherzer and Verlander deals alone. They’ve also saved just over $86MM on the pair of trades, including both salary and luxury tax penalties. In the event Verlander’s option vests and he exercises it, those savings would jump to more than $119MM (while the dead money they’d paid down would rise to more than $86MM).
The Mets are so far into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization, that short of getting a team to take on the entirety of the Verlander and Scherzer contracts, there was no real way of ducking back underneath that line. The Astros, meanwhile, have received enough cash from the Mets that they’ll likely come in under the luxury line. Roster Resource had them exceeding the $233MM first-tier threshold by only a margin of $1.7MM even when assuming the full freight of Verlander’s remaining money; that clearly won’t be the case now. That would’ve been the first time Houston had crossed into luxury territory, but they’ll now have Verlander for a total of $22.777MM for the remainder of this season and next — plus an additional $17.5MM in 2025 if that option vests and he picks it up.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Astros were acquiring Verlander for two prospects. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Gilbert’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first on Clifford. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first with the specific financial breakdown.