Giants To Acquire Kris Bryant
The Giants made a major splash at the trade deadline buzzer, acquiring slugger Kris Bryant from the Cubs for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian. ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke news of the trade, while Francys Romero of LasMayores was first on Canario and journalist Marc Delucchi had Kilian.
Drafted second overall in 2013 out of the University of San Diego, Bryant won the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year with the Cubs and followed that with the 2016 NL MVP award as the club finally won a championship. The Cubs famously waited until April 17th to call Bryant up back in 2015, effectively granting them a seventh year of control over the player by a margin of one day.
Though Bryant would never return to the lofty 6-8 WAR heights of his first three seasons, he settled in comfortably as a 130 wRC+ type bat, with the exception of an injury-marred 34-game 2020 season. Bryant’s bounceback season was punctuated by his fourth All-Star selection earlier this month.
As early as his sophomore season, the Cubs began deploying Bryant at positions other than his primary spot of third base. This year, manager David Ross has gotten Bryant at least 80 innings at both corner infield positions as well as all three outfield spots. Third base makes sense for Bryant in San Francisco, with Evan Longoria out until at least August 6th with a shoulder injury. Once Longoria returns, Bryant could see time in left field and perhaps center.
The Giants have surprisingly been the best team in baseball this year, and they lead the NL West by a three-game margin over the Dodgers. Giants President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi may have felt some pressure after the Dodgers completed a blockbuster trade with the Nationals for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner today, also adding Danny Duffy in a deal with the Royals yesterday. So the Giants have added the big bat of Bryant to an offense that already ranked third in the NL with 4.81 runs scored per game. The Giants have a front office connection to the Cubs, as GM Scott Harris spent seven years in their baseball operations before joining San Francisco in November 2019.
Cubs fans might be disappointed to see a Bryant trade fail to return a top 100 prospect, but the player’s $19.5MM salary and impending free agency kept teams from overbidding. Canario, 21, was assigned a 50 grade by MLB.com. Prior to the season, Baseball America had Canario as a 55, a player with plus raw power but questionable plate discipline and defense. Canario suffered a torn labrum back in November, but has since posted a .235/.325/.433 line in 274 Low-A plate appearances. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gave him a 45 grade, concluding, “He has huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but I wonder if the compressed developmental timeline created by his presence on the 40-man and potential lingering effects from the injury might make that tough.”
Kilian, a 24-year-old righty, was promoted from High-A to Double-A back in May. In 11 starts at that level, he owns a 2.43 ERA, 26.2 K%, and 3.3 BB%. MLB.com assigned him a 40 grade, noting that “he could develop into a No. 4 starter.”
The Bryant trade was just one part of an extensive fire sale held by Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who also traded Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Craig Kimbrel, Jake Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Joc Pederson, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin this month.
Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.
Kris Bryant Rumors: Deadline Day
With free agency looming in November, Kris Bryant has likely already played his last game as a Cub. The 29-year-old sports a 132 wRC+ in 374 plate appearances this year, and has shown versatility in playing at least 80 innings at both infield corners and all three outfield positions. With a $19.5MM salary on the season, Bryant is still owed about $6.5MM this year. The 2016 NL MVP winner seems quite likely to be traded today, if the Cubs can muster up a return better than a compensatory draft pick. We’ll put the latest Bryant updates right here…
Latest Updates
- The Giants and Bryant “are one pairing to watch,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The Cubs are making trades left and right, sending Craig Kimbrel to the White Sox and Javier Baez to the Mets today.
Earlier Updates
- “It’s not a sure thing that [the] Cubs trade Bryant at all,” tweets Andy Martino of SNY. That would certainly qualify as a surprise.
- The Rays are talking with the Cubs about both Bryant and Craig Kimbrel, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs may not necessarily package the two together, and a deal does not appear to be close.
- The Mets and Cubs “remain apart in Kris Bryant talks,” tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story
The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.
Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.
Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.
Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.
The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.
As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.
Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.
The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.
It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.
Mets’ J.D. Davis Available In Trades
The Mets have made slugging corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis available in trades, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As was rumored throughout the offseason, McDaniel notes that some execs have speculated the Mets could be hoping to include Davis as part of a package to acquire a prominent name such as Kris Bryant or Trevor Story. Nothing involving Davis is close at this time, he adds.
That Davis’ name has again surfaced in rumors only feels natural, given how prominently he was cited in offseason rumblings. The 28-year-old has been an oft-cited trade possibility despite being a vastly above-average hitter during his time with the Mets — in part due to questions about his glovework. Davis’ defense was put under a microscope early this year, in particular, when he made three errors at third base in a span of two games. He’s missed most of the season since that time, owing to a finger injury, but he hasn’t made an error since that time — a span of 18 games and 26 chances at the hot corner.
That’s not to say concerns about Davis’ glove are without merit. He’s spent 944 career innings at third base and posted -21 Defensive Runs Saved, a -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating and -10 Outs Above Average. It’s not a great profile, and the Mets have also tried Davis in left field. His former club, the Astros, gave him some brief looks at first base, too.
Setting the defensive question marks aside, though, the draw of Davis is very clearly his bat — and with good reason. He’s absolutely raked in 89 plate appearances this season, hitting .325/.416/.545 with four long balls and five doubles. That’s not just a total small-sample fluke, either; since being traded to the Mets, Davis has produced .292/.375/.490 batting line with 32 home runs and 36 doubles in just 771 plate appearances. He’s been 33 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. That’s borderline star-level production at the plate, as that 133 wRC+ places him right alongside the likes of Rafael Devers, Jesse Winker, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and teammate Pete Alonso since the start of the 2019 season. Davis, quite simply, can mash.
Beyond his talent at the plate, Davis offers a long-term option for interested trade partners. He’s earning $2.1MM in 2021 as a first-time arbitration player. Davis reached arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, meaning he’s controllable for three more years beyond the current season. He can be expected to put up some strong counting numbers moving forward, which ought to make his subsequent arbitration raises notable, but this year’s missed time on the injured list will suppress his 2022 salary a bit, at the very least.
There’s no pressure for the Mets to move Davis, given that remaining control. In fact, with most expecting the universal designated hitter to come to the National League in 2022, one could argue that Davis’ value will only go up for the Mets (although the also have both Dominic Smith and Alonso, so they certainly have first base/DH options elsewhere on the roster). As was the case in the offseason, it seems likelier that the win-now Mets would move Davis in a deal to bring back MLB talent rather than prospects.
Cubs, Giants Have Reportedly Discussed Kris Bryant Trade
July 28: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that the Giants are “backing off” any proposals from the Cubs which center around Bart.
The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser recently reported that among Giants top prospects, Bart may be the “most” available, but that doesn’t means the club is flat-out shopping him or willing to include him for a high-priced rental player such as Bryant (or the majority of Chicago’s other trade candidates).
July 27: The Giants and Cubs have had discussions about a possible Kris Bryant trade, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Chicago is evaluating San Francisco catcher Joey Bart as a possible part of those conversations, according to Morosi, although he unsurprisingly adds the Giants aren’t likely to give up Bart for Bryant alone.
Bryant has plenty of experience at third base and all throughout the outfield, making him a viable fit on the rosters of plenty of contenders. San Francisco’s expected to get Evan Longoria back from the injured list next month, so the front office is likely eyeing Bryant as a potential outfield pickup. Giants left fielders (primarily Alex Dickerson) have a below-average .214/.288/.395 slash line this season.
Bryant could also offer some cover in center field. Steven Duggar has had a great season, but he’d never before hit at anything near his current .284/.358/.484 clip. Moreover, Duggar’s current .405 batting average on balls in play is unsustainably high, masking an alarming 31.6% strikeout rate.
Finances might be a concern for many clubs interested in Bryant (like the Rays, reported to have had preliminary discussions about a potential deal this morning). The 29-year-old is making $19.5MM this season, his final before hitting free agency. About $7.13MM is still owed for the remainder of the year.
That tab shouldn’t pose much of a problem for the Giants, who have ample financial flexibility. Ownership has previously approved payrolls above $200MM, but their current figure is in the $150-152MM range in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource. San Francisco’s nowhere near the luxury tax line, so there should be room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris (a former Cubs’ assistant GM) to spend to upgrade a roster that currently leads the Dodgers by two games in the NL West.
Of course, Bart would be an ambitious ask for less than half a season’s worth of work from Bryant alone (although he is reportedly the most likely Giants top prospect to move in the next few days). The former #2 overall pick hasn’t yet found major league success, but he’s a highly-touted young talent. Baseball America slotted the right-handed hitting backstop as the game’s #22 overall prospect in their updated top 100 list this week. While Buster Posey has catcher locked down at the big league level in San Francisco this year, Bart has had a strong campaign at Triple-A Sacramento. The 24-year-old is hitting .310/.372/.532 in 188 plate appearances, his first crack at the minors’ highest level.
There’s no indication the Giants and Cubs are in specific discussions on players other than Bryant, although it’s possible the sides could work out some sort of package deal. Speculatively speaking, relivers Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera could hold appeal to a Giants bullpen that has pitched well but is generally short on past high-leverage experience. Kimbrel would be the more impactful — but far more expensive — pickup. He’s playing out the season on a $16MM salary (about $5.85MM of which remains), with a $16MM club/vesting option for 2022. Tepera, meanwhile, is making an $800K salary and will reach free agency at the end of the year.
Bryant: “Absolutely” Willing To Return To Cubs In Free Agency If Traded
With the Cubs selling off established players on the big league roster, Kris Bryant is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The 29-year-old is slated to hit free agency this winter, and past extension discussions with the Cubs haven’t resulted in a deal.
Even if Bryant does wind up changing uniforms in the next few days, he’d remain open to returning to the North Side via free agency. “Oh yeah, absolutely,” Bryant replied when asked if he’d be willing to sign with the Cubs this winter if they trade him midseason (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). “Like I’ve said, I love this place. It’s all I’ve known. The familiarity of being here and this city and the people make it a lot easier to say, ‘Yeah, of course, I’d love to play here.”
That’s not to say such a situation is likely. The Cubs haven’t spent at particularly high levels in free agency over the past few seasons, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has previously spoken about there being inevitable turnover on the roster in 2022 and beyond. Bryant also didn’t give any indication he’d take any sort of discount to return to Chicago.
Nevertheless, it’s at least a bit notable the former NL MVP would be happy to return to the Cubs after being traded if that situation happened to present itself. Bryant’s willingness to stay in Chicago beyond his initial window of team control has been the subject of some speculation since the Cubs held him in the minors to open the 2015 season in order to gain an extra year of control over his services. Bryant’s camp filed a grievance (which he ultimately lost), although the four-time All-Star has perennially maintained that situation would not preclude him from signing a long-term deal with the Cubs.
It remains to be seen where Bryant will end up for the season’s final couple months, although it seems a near certainty he’ll be traded. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Rays had had “preliminary discussions” about a potential Bryant acquisition.
Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson
The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar. According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.
As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make. As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers. It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.
Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028. Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.
Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast. This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.
As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season. While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons. Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary. The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.
The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline. Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP. Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.
Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks. The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations. Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.
Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays Scouting Cubs/Diamondbacks
The Mets, Phillies, and Jays – and potentially others – have scouts at the Diamondbacks/Cubs game in Chicago today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
That’s as good a place as any for deadline buyers to do their weekend shopping. Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel are the most notable names present, but there’s plenty of talent dotting Chicago’s roster. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Zach Davies are the other veterans on expiring contracts, with Davies the most likely of the three to move.
The Cubs also stock affordable, veteran talent, both in the bullpen — where names like Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Dan Winkler could help a contender — and in the lineup, where low-cost veterans like Patrick Wisdom, Matt Duffy, and Jake Marisnick could be worth a conversation as well.
The Diamondbacks figure to be an even more fervent seller, though without the high-end talent of the Cubs. Still, Eduardo Escobar continues to be a popular name as a power bat offering defensive versatility on an expiring contract. Asdrubal Cabrera represents a knock-off edition, though the veteran has proven an effective deadline addition before, and he brings a more patient approach with an 11.7 walk rate this season.
Joakim Soria has a 4.45 ERA/3.91 FIP in 28 1/3 innings and a lengthy track record of success. The 14-year veteran is making just $3.5MM, and he, too, will be a free agent at year’s end. He has six saves and 229 for his career, so any acquiring team can rest assured that he’ll keep his composure, if nothing else. The Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all need bullpen help and could turn to Soria if Kimbrel proves too rich.
The rest of the Dbacks’ bullpen consists mostly of castoffs or unproven youngsters. Bespectacled vet Tyler Clippard won’t be cowed by the moment, but he’s only recently off the 60-day injured list and has just one appearance on the season. Former Brewers and Rays right-hander Jake Faria is having a decent season — 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 innings — and would probably come cheap.
Noe Ramirez is worth a look. The 31-year-old sports a 3.31 ERA/3.72 FIP in 16 1/3 innings, but he’s long been undervalued because of pretty severe splits. He has a 3.94 career xFIP and 20.4 percent K-BB% against same-handed hitters, versus a 5.04 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% against lefties for his career. Deployed judiciously, Ramirez can absolutely add value to a contender.
Merrill Kelly and Caleb Smith could be targeted as back-end rotation upgrades, with Kelly having the better season of the two. Kelly has posted 2.0 fWAR in 20 starts covering 117 innings. He has a 4.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with a 46.2 percent groundball rate, 20.3 percent strikeout rate, and solid 5.5 percent walk rate. He’s also affordable at $4.25MM this year and controllable with a $5.25MM club option for next year.
Kelly will take the mound today. He’s generating “a ton of interest on the trade market,” per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Smith is an extreme flyball pitcher controllable through 2023. With a 27.1 percent groundball rate for his career, he’s always going to be homer prone, but he’s nevertheless managed a palatable 4.38 ERA/4.64 FIP in 78 innings. Smith might be a better bet for a fringey contender looking towards the future, as his value lies at least as much in his controllability as it does his present ability to pitch in the back-end of a playoff rotation.
Cubs Will Reportedly Try Again On Rizzo, Baez Extensions Before Exploring Trades
The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.
Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.
As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.
Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.
For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.
Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.
The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.
As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.
Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.
Nationals Have Interest In Kris Bryant
The Nationals are among the teams with interest in Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There will certainly be plenty of other suitors for the former NL MVP, who might wind up being the top player traded over the next two weeks.
Indeed, the Nats aren’t the only team in the NL East reportedly looking into a Bryant acquisition. The division-leading Mets were linked to the four-time All-Star last night. On the surface, New York looks to be a more obvious deadline buyer than Washington, who enters tonight’s game with a 42-47 record. In fact, Bryant’s current club is actually a game and a half above the Nats in the Wild Card race.
That said, the Nationals haven’t been shy about trying to make a playoff push when the opportunity presents itself under general manager Mike Rizzo. They’re six games back of the Mets (albeit with the Phillies and Braves also ahead of them) in a division where no teams have separated themselves from the pack. Washington has a difficult three-game series against the Padres this weekend, but that’s followed by dates with the Marlins and Orioles next week, which could give them an opportunity to make up some ground in the standings.
If the Nationals do look to add to the big league roster in the coming weeks, third base is an obvious area to upgrade. Washington has gotten below-average production (.280/.333/.369) at the hot corner over the course of the year, where nearly all of the playing time has gone to Starlin Castro. Castro was placed on administrative leave this afternoon as Major League Baseball investigates domestic violence allegations made against him. Jordy Mercer started at third base tonight in Washington’s first game out of the All-Star Break.
Bryant, of course, would be an upgrade over most teams’ third base situations. The 29-year-old has bounced back from a poor 2020 campaign to hit at an excellent .271/.353/.502 level with sixteen home runs over 329 plate appearances. He’s tailed off after a scorching start to the year, but Bryant’s overall body of work is one of the better ones in the sport.
Of the 231 hitters to accrue 200+ plate appearances in 2021, Bryant is tied for 40th with a 132 wRC+. Relative to last season, he’s drawing more walks, striking out less often and making a higher rate of hard contact. Bryant hasn’t regained the MVP-caliber form he showed early in his career, but his All-Star selection in 2021 was certainly deserved.
The general expectation is that Bryant will wind up on the move between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Cubs president Jed Hoyer suggested last week the team would listen to offers for players on their big league roster on the heels of an 11-game losing streak. They traded outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves — a team with which the Cubs are ostensibly in competition for a Wild Card berth — for first base prospect Bryce Ball last night. And while Chicago’s reportedly planning to engage in extension talks with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Báez before the trade deadline, there’s no indication that’s the case with Bryant.
One potential obstacle to a Bryant trade is salary. He signed a $19.5MM deal to avoid arbitration over the winter, approximately $8.3MM of which remains to be paid. The Nationals typically run higher than average payrolls, and their $183MM estimated figure (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) for this season is about $14MM shy of the franchise’s 2019 outlay. That could suggest there’s room on the books for Bryant, although it remains to be seen if ownership’s keen on making such an investment in a team that entered play tonight with a meager 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, in FanGraphs’ estimation.
The other important potential roadblock to a deal that sends Bryant to the nation’s capital is the Nationals’ thin farm system. Certainly, every team in the league could put together a prospect package sufficient to land Bryant, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end. But Heyman hears that the Nats don’t want to trade their top two prospects, right-handed pitchers Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge.
If that’s the case, it could be difficult for the Nationals to beat the market for Bryant. Infielder Yasel Antuna is the only other player in the system who garners a 45 FV ranking or better from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and he’s hitting .191/.269/.347 in High-A this year. First-round pick Brady House will certainly vault near the top of the organizational rankings once he signs a professional contract, but 2021 draftees can’t be traded until next offseason. Perhaps the Cubs would have interest in former top prospect Carter Kieboom, but his stock has dimmed amidst some struggles at the big league level and he’s currently on the minor league injured list with a knee issue.
It stands to reason more teams will join the Nationals and Mets as having reported interest in Bryant in the coming weeks. The Cubs look primed to be one of the deadline’s most active sellers, and Bryant’s production and laundry list of accolades will make him perhaps the highest-profile player on the trade market.