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Lance Lynn

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

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Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

Additional Context On Padres’ Flurry Of Trades

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The Padres were the most active buyer at the 2020 trade deadline — arguably of any trade deadline in recent history — reshaping their roster with additions of Mike Clevinger, Austin Nola, Trevor Rosenthal, Mitch Moreland and Jason Castro, among others. The dizzying sequence of additions hearkened back to the days when Matt Kemp labeled A.J. Preller a “rock star” GM during Preller’s frenetic first offseason on the job, but the biggest trades swung by the Padres over the weekend didn’t necessarily come together in straightforward fashion.

Preller, in fact, was informed Sunday evening that his Padres were “out” of the Clevinger bidding, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Indians told the Padres that they were sitting on a better offer and likely to proceed in another direction. That call prompted the club to reconvene and alter its package, ultimately adding infield prospect Owen Miller and catcher Austin Hedges early Monday morning. Those pieces put San Diego’s offer over the top, it seems, as word of Clevinger’s trade to the Friars was out several hours before the 4pm ET deadline.

Hedges and Miller, the final two pieces of the Padres’ six-player package, added quite a bit more near-term value to the arrangement. Hedges is considered one of the best defensive catchers (if not the best) in the game and is controlled through the 2022 season. The 23-year-old Miller has yet to make his big league debut, but he slashed .290/.355/.430 in a full season at the Double-A level last year while playing three infield positions. He’s in Cleveland’s player pool now and could conceivably be an option this month. If not, he’ll certainly be in consideration for a call to the big leagues come 2021. With Cesar Hernandez playing on a one-year deal, it’s possible that Miller could be in the mix for regular playing time next season.

But the Clevinger blockbuster wasn’t the only Friars swap that required some persistent iterations. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters after trading Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla to the Padres that he didn’t expect to trade Nola this summer (as opposed to Taijuan Walker, whom the M’s fully anticipated moving).

“They had called repeatedly on Austin Nola and we had repeatedly rebuffed that interest until the return just became too big for us to pass up in our minds,”  Dipoto said Monday (link via MLB.com’s Greg Johns).

The key element of the trade for the Mariners was getting both infielder Ty France and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell in the deal. Dipoto didn’t hide his affinity for either player, revealing that he’s contacted the Padres on France repeatedly over the past couple seasons and been similarly drawn to Trammell dating all the way back to the 2016 draft. “As many phone calls as A.J. made to me this last week about Austin Nola, I have made as many to him over the last couple of years regarding Ty France,” said Dipoto.

With Nola and Castro now on hand, the Padres have completely remade their catching tandem midseason, but changes could yet be coming. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required) that the club is contemplating a September promotion for 21-year-old Luis Campusano — a top-ranked catching prospect who was an in-demand piece himself at this year’s deadline. Per Lin, both the Indians and Rangers asked the Padres about Campusano in trade negotiations, but the Friars clearly weren’t inclined to include him in a deal. Cleveland initially sought Campusano and Luis Patino as centerpieces in the Clevinger deal, while the Rangers were interested in that pair as well as shortstop CJ Abrams when discussing Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo with the Padres.

The 21-year-old Campusano has yet to play above Class-A Advanced, but he tore through the pitcher-friendly California League last year, slashing .325/.396/.509 (148 wRC+). If the Padres do bring him up, they could rotate him, Nola and Castro through the catcher slot while maximizing Nola’s versatility with reps at any of first base, second base, third base or the outfield corners.

Suffice it to say, we could’ve seen any number of permutations of the Padres’ deluge of deals this past week. Such is the nature of a win-now team with a deep farm system. The club’s minor league system undoubtedly took a hit with this wave of trades, but San Diego also managed to hang onto the majority of its top-ranked prospects while clearly placing themselves in a better competitive position both now and into at least the 2022 season, after which Clevinger is scheduled to become a free agent.

Rangers Had High Price On Lynn; Deals With Dodgers, Braves Didn’t Get Close

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Despite vast interest from around the majors, the Rangers decided to retain right-hander Lance Lynn through at least the rest of the season. The Braves were among the teams in on Lynn, but the Rangers understandably placed a high asking price on the AL Cy Young contender and his year-plus of affordable control. Texas wanted either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters from Atlanta as the headliner in a package for Lynn, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic, though the Braves clearly were unwilling to part with either of the highly touted outfield prospects.

Both Pache and Waters are 21-year-old outfielders who rank among the game’s top 50 prospects, and it stands to reason that the Rangers would’ve pushed for additional pieces to be added. Had either Pache or Waters changed hands in a deal with Texas or another club, they’d have been the highest-ranked prospect dealt in a deadline season that was punctuated more by players to be named later and mid-tier prospects.

The Braves and the Dodgers were known to be in on Lynn, with L.A. reportedly making a late push but ultimately failing to close a deal. Specific names that were discussed haven’t come to light, but Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels made clear that sufficient value wasn’t presented.

“I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.”

All of the top baseball operations execs involved in Lynn discussions has made similar statements in the hours and days since the deadline passed. Via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman acknowledged his efforts to add an “impactful” starter who could’ve lined up behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw in the postseason rotation. Lynn fits that description following his past season-plus with the Rangers, but Friedman characterized those as talks that never “got all that close.”

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, meanwhile said in a recent radio appearance on 92.9 The Game that his club set a threshold they weren’t willing to cross — much as they do with regard to free-agent negotiations. “The moves that we could’ve made, for us, would not have been good deals,” Anthopoulos said. “…It just came down to — and it’s no knock on anybody — we made the decision that the price for us, we didn’t think that made sense.”

Daniels and the Rangers will have another opportunity to shop Lynn this winter, and while they’re now only marketing one season of Lynn (and one postseason push involving him), interest should still be high as long as Lynn remains healthy. If the 2021 season sees a return to a standard 10-team postseason field, clubs may be more motivated to add impact pieces like Lynn, knowing that multiple postseason spots in each league have been eliminated. That doesn’t guarantee a huge return for the Rangers, of course, but a full season of a high-end starter on a below-market contract ($8MM in 2021) and the right to make him a qualifying offer after the season should still be able to fetch a respectable haul.

Rangers Won’t Trade Lance Lynn, Joey Gallo

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The Rangers moved a significant contributor in left-hander Mike Minor before Monday’s trade deadline, but a couple of other big names will stay put. Righty Lance Lynn and outfielder Joey Gallo aren’t going anywhere, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports.

The 33-year-old Lynn has been one of baseball’s top starters dating back to his debut season with the Rangers in 2019, and as someone who’s only under control through the 2021 campaign, he looked like a prime trade chip. Lynn surely drew interest from an array of teams, including the Dodgers, but the Rangers never found an offer to their liking. However, that doesn’t mean Lynn will don their uniform again next season. He’ll likely pop up in trade rumors again during the winter, as the Rangers figure to be coming off another non-playoff effort and Lynn will be set to earn a team-friendly $8MM in the last season of a three-year, $30MM contract that has worked out wonderfully for Texas.

Meanwhile, it always seemed like a long shot that the Rangers would part with Gallo, who’s just 26, one of the faces of their franchise and controllable via arbitration through 2022. Gallo hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this year, during which he has slashed .183/.336/.423 with seven home runs in 128 plate appearances, but he was one of the AL’s premier hitters in an injury-limited 2019 showing. It wouldn’t have made sense for the Rangers to sell low on him.

Dodgers, Rangers Fail To Reach Lance Lynn Deal

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3:00pm: The Dodgers and Rangers were ultimately unable to come together on a Lynn trade, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

2:40pm: The two sides are still far apart, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. That said, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi also hears that the Dodgers have intensified their pursuit. There’s room for both of those things to be true, of course, and it’s not uncommon for major deals to come together in the final 15 to 20 minutes running up to the trade deadline.

2:34pm: The Dodgers have “stepped up” their efforts to pry right-hander Lance Lynn away from the Rangers in the past hour, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (via Twitter). MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, however, hears that the likeliest scenario is still that Lynn stays put, barring a last-minute increase in the offer from an interested suitor (Twitter link).

The 33-year-old Lynn, signed through the 2021 season, is regarded as arguably the best starting pitcher available on the trade market. Since signing in Texas, he’s pitched to a 3.33 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 259 2/3 innings of work while averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing.

Adding Lynn would be a luxury for a Dodgers club that can already has the likes of Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin on its depth chart. That said, Buehler is currently sidelined by a blister on his hand, and the Dodgers typically thrive in large part due to their largely unrivaled depth. It’s also possible that a younger arm like Gonsolin could go back to Texas in that type of arrangement, though that’s only my own speculation.

Latest On Lance Lynn Trade Talks

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The Rangers have already shipped out starter Mike Minor to the A’s, so now all eyes are on righty Lance Lynn.  The 33-year-old righty sports a 3.33 ERA in 41 starts for the Rangers since they signed him prior to the 2019 season, and he’s under contract for just $8MM in 2021.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Rangers may be motivated to avoid repeating the mistake they made with Minor, holding him last summer when he was at peak value with control remaining.

  • The Braves, who picked up lefty Tommy Milone in a deal with the Orioles yesterday, have been in contact with the Rangers regarding Lynn within the last 48 hours, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
  • The Yankees have also been involved in Lynn’s market during that time, tweets Morosi.  Lynn’s resurgence began with his two-month stint with the Yankees back in 2018.  MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan notes that the Rangers “would love RHP Deivi Garcia from the Yankees but he is likely out of reach.”  On a similar note, Sherman hears the Yankees don’t have an appetite to move Garcia, to date.
  • The Padres “explored separate trades” with the Rangers for Lynn and outfielder Joey Gallo before acquiring Mike Clevinger from the Indians, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  I would speculate that with Clevinger tow, it’s (relatively) safe to assume the Padres are out on Lynn.  Similarly, the A’s were previously connected to Lynn but have since landed Minor.
  • Previous connections to Lynn have been made for the Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox, so those teams may still be in play.  According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, the Jays had been linked to Minor before he was dealt to Oakland, and the Rangers “are intrigued by [the] Jays’ young catching.”

Latest On Twins’ Interest In Starting Pitching Market

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The Twins are “working aggressively to trade for a starter today,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  Morosi reiterates their interest in the Angels’ Dylan Bundy and the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, which he has previously reported.  Darren Wolfson of KSTP has a different take, noting the Twins’ existing rotation depth and tendency to “call every team to get a gauge on price points.”

The Twins have been working with Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Rich Hill, and Randy Dobnak in the rotation, and they’ll add Michael Pineda tomorrow as his suspension concludes.  Jake Odorizzi is working his way back from an abdominal bruise, while Homer Bailey’s biceps tendinitis makes him more of a question mark.  Wolfson’s point: this is not a team in desperate need of starting pitching.

Lynn, 33, figures to be one of the day’s hottest commodities.  The 12-21 Rangers are one of perhaps seven obvious sellers, and Lynn has been excellent since signing a three-year deal with Texas in December 2018.  He’s owed about $1.5MM for the remainder of the season, plus an affordable $8MM salary for 2021.  The Angels are in a similar spot with Bundy, a 27-year-old for whom things seem to be clicking after seven starts.

It’s worth noting that Lynn made 20 starts for the Twins in 2018 before being traded to the Yankees, at which point his resurgence began.  After that season, the Twins hired Wes Johnson as their pitching coach.  It’s not clear how the organization’s familiarity with Lynn affects their interest.  If the Twins do push for a starter today, their efforts will likely be muddied by the division-rival White Sox, who have also been connected to both Lynn and Bundy.

A’s, Twins, Padres, Blue Jays Interested In Lance Lynn

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4:55PM: The Athletics are “potentially” also interested in Lynn, Morosi notes in an on-air report (Twitter link).

TODAY, 11:30AM: The Twins are also in on Lynn, hears Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Morosi adds that Lynn is “increasingly likely” to be moved before tomorrow’s deadline.

AUGUST 29: Count the Padres and Blue Jays among the teams to have expressed interest in Rangers starter Lance Lynn, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. With the White Sox also cited as a suitor for Lynn earlier today, the Rangers appear to have a robust market forming for their top starter, for whom they’re said to be “entertaining offers,” though that’s no guarantee that they’re determined to deal Lynn prior to Monday’s trading deadline.

Beyond the three teams named above, it seems likely that almost every pitching-needy team will inquire about Lynn, who is coveted not only because of his elite production, but because he’s not just a rental: the 33-year-old will remain under contract through next season, when he’ll be paid $8MM—by no means a steep cost for a pitcher of his caliber. Those factors could make Lynn a hotly contested name during what might otherwise be a quiet trade season.

We’ll have to see just how much the Rangers are willing to part with Lynn, but there’s no doubt they’ll command a pretty high asking price for their top arm. Still, if there are teams who can meet such an asking price, San Diego, Chicago, and Toronto are among them. All three of those teams have substantial prospect capital to pry Lynn from Texas, assuming they’re .

And one might think of that trio in similar terms: all three teams are finally seeing on-field results following years of speculative “potential.” They rely on a core of young, blossoming position players but largely lack veteran pitchers to match. As those clubs look to enter win-now mode (perhaps the Blue Jays to a lesser degree than the White Sox or Padres), Lynn would be a sensible addition to any pitching staff.

Braves Acquire Tommy Milone

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10:51 am: The deal is official. Atlanta designated first baseman Matt Adams for assignment to clear roster space for Milone, who is in fact set to start tonight’s game for the Braves.

8:26 am: The Braves are nearing a deal to acquire left-hander Tommy Milone from the Orioles, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (Twitter link). Atlanta will send two prospects, neither of whom is in the Braves’ 60-man player pool, to Baltimore, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Because they are outside the player pool, those prospects will be included as players to be named later. Presumably, we won’t know their identities until after the end of the season.

Milone, 33, was surprisingly named Baltimore’s Opening Day starter after latching on with the organization on a minor-league deal over the offseason. That start didn’t go as planned, but he’s quietly performed well in his five starts since. Overall, Milone has a 3.99 ERA in 29.1 innings this season.

The soft-tossing Milone has always been a control artist, and that’s continued in 2020. More importantly, he’s struck out a career-best 24% of hitters in the early going on the back of a career-high 12.5% swinging strike rate. The Braves will place a low-cost bet Milone can mostly maintain that uptick in swing-and-miss while working in his customary 86-87 MPH velocity range. His $1MM base salary was prorated to a little over $370K, of which about $173K remains. Milone will be a free agent at season’s end.

It still seems there’s room for the Braves to explore further rotation acquisitions. Max Fried has been exceptional so far, but the rest of the rotation has been shaky. Despite those starting pitching woes, the Braves are off to an 18-14 start and two games ahead of the pack in the NL East. However, they’re not expected to be involved in the pursuit of Rangers ace Lance Lynn, hears Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

At 14-18, the Orioles are technically still on the periphery of the AL wild card race. Serviceable start notwithstanding, this was always expected to be a rebuilding year for Baltimore, so it’s hardly surprising to see them flip present assets for future value. Prospects Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer are already on the 40-man roster and are speculative candidates to replace Milone in the starting rotation.

White Sox Interested In Lance Lynn, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy

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11:11AM: The White Sox also have interest in Angels righty Dylan Bundy, Morosi tweets.

10:24AM: The White Sox are looking into the starting pitching market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that Rangers ace Lance Lynn is under consideration, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray has also been discussed (both links to Twitter).

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Connor Byrne recently put it, “Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.”  The right-hander has a 1.59 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 3.57 K/BB rate through 45 1/3 innings this season, and while advanced metrics hint at some inevitable ERA regression, those same numbers suggest Lynn is pitching at roughly the same level as he did in 2019, when he finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Beyond only his performance this season, Lynn is under contract for an $8MM salary in 2021, which stands as a more than reasonable price if he keeps pitching this well.  As big a trade chip as Lynn is, however, his pluses also make him a valuable asset to the Rangers, who are at least open to hearing offers for Lynn but maybe not likely to actually move him unless another team steps up with a big trade package.

It’s probably safe to assume that Ray is much more available, though the southpaw’s value has dramatically dropped off in the wake of a brutal start to the 2020 season.  Control issues and the home run ball have plagued Ray, who has a 7.84 ERA and 31 walks over 31 innings, despite a 12.5 K/9.  Despite Ray’s struggles, he has drawn interest from the Astros and other teams, with some clubs reportedly interested in deploying Ray as a reliever.

The White Sox have gotten very good results from Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Dallas Keuchel this season, but much less from a fourth/fifth starter mix that includes Gio Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, and the injured Carlos Rodon.  The league-wide perception, as least according to rival executives speaking with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, is that the Pale Hose will land a starter prior to Monday’s trade deadline.  The bullpen has been a strength overall, though it is short on left-handed pitchers (such as Ray) since Aaron Bummer is still on the injured list.

Acquiring Ray would be a pure short-term rental move, since he is a free agent after the year.  Prying Lynn away from Texas would cost the Sox quite a bit more in prospect capital, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox and Rangers have been rather frequent trading partners since Rick Hahn became Chicago’s general manager.  The White Sox are firmly in the playoff race this year and plan to be contenders for the foreseeable future, so Lynn is the type of pitcher that would also boost their chances of winning in 2021.

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