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Mookie Betts

Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax

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Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.

As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.

Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.

The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.

One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.

Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.

Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.

If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).

Latest On Mookie Betts

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As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.

With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.

For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.

Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.

But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.

To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval’s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.

Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.

Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.

East Notes: Acuna Jr., BoSox, Betts, Yanks, Hicks

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve shut banged up outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. down for the rest of the regular season. Hip tightness and a left groin strain have troubled Acuna of late, but the NL East-winning Braves expect the superstar to be fine by the time the NLDS begins next week. The Braves, who are locked into the NL’s No. 2 seed, don’t have anything of substance to play for over the final few days of the season. However, it’s still a shame for the 21-year-old Acuna that he won’t have an opportunity at a 40-40 campaign. Acuna’s outstanding regular season will end with 41 home runs, 37 steals, a .280/.365/.518 line and 5.5 fWAR over 715 plate appearances.

Moving over to the AL East…

  • Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has made it known that he plans to become a free agent after 2020, his final season of arbitration control. The 2018 AL MVP told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he’s taking a business-minded approach instead of one driven by emotions because of his upbringing. “Fans and media get caught up in emotions and that’s just not how I was raised and that’s just not what my point of view with my agents is,” said Betts. “We take emotions out of it and we focus on the business part. Of course, I love it here. This is all I know. But you also have to take that emotional side out of it and get to what is actually real.” Betts further explained to Bradford that a business-first mindset has steered him right in the past, specifically when he signed with the Red Sox as a fifth-round pick in 2011 and when he brushed off a possible contract extension before the 2017 season in order to reach arbitration during the ensuing winter.
  • Utility player Brock Holt, one of Betts’ Red Sox teammates, may be in his final days with the club. The pending free agent told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he has loved playing for the Red Sox, who acquired him back in 2013. At the same time, though, he finds the idea of a potential trip to free agency “exciting.” That’s understandable coming from Holt, who boasts a respectable track record of production. Injuries have limited him to 83 games this season, but the 31-year-old has batted a solid .303/.379/.414 during that 280-PA span.
  • Although he hasn’t played since Aug. 3, injured Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks continues to hold out hope that he’ll be able to return during the postseason, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Hicks, who’s dealing with a right flexor tendon issue, has begun to throw from 120 feet. He hasn’t progressed to throwing to bases, though, and there won’t be any chance of a comeback until that happens.

Red Sox Notes: Mookie, Moreland, Hembree

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What had long been apparent became official Friday. The defending World Series champions would not earn a chance to defend their title in the postseason. With the Red Sox officially eliminated and many in Boston turning their attention to another team looking for a more successful title defense effort, the focus for the Sox is now on 2020 and beyond.

  • Mookie Betts’ status as a free agent after 2020 will surely generate quite a few headlines in the coming months. The superstar outfielder discussed his situation with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, noting that he doesn’t feel it critical to his legacy to spend his entire career in one city. That’s not to say Betts is definitely leaving Boston; Speier notes that player and organization have a strong relationship, with the Sox particularly respecting Betts’ dedication to returning to the field recently from a foot injury despite their place in the standings. Rather, Betts has a history of justifiably and successfully betting on himself, Speier chronicles, and there’s no reason to sell himself short in extension talks given his elite level of performance. Betts overcame something of a slow start in 2019 to hit .292/.388/.521, aided by work with an independent hitting instructor he met through teammate Christian Vázquez, documented by Chad Jennings of the Athletic.
  • While free agency will no doubt prove lucrative to a superstar like Betts, the market has been decidedly less kind to players like Mitch Moreland, the first baseman lamented to Rob Bradford of WEEI. Moreland’s last foray into free agency landed him a 2-year, $13MM deal to return to Boston, but he’ll have a hard time finding that much this winter. The 34-year-old tells Bradford that finding the right fit, not maxing out financially, will be his priority in choosing a suitor this offseason, although he acknowledged he may not have too many offers to choose from. Moreland says he’d love to return to Boston for a fourth season, but the executive who brought Moreland back two years ago, Dave Dombrowski, is gone, putting Moreland’s status with the organization up in the air. Working in Moreland’s favor, perhaps, the free agent market for first baseman isn’t especially robust, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined recently. Despite a pedestrian .244/.322/.498 line (108 wRC+), Moreland still seems likely to find a guaranteed contract somewhere on the market.
  • In more immediate news, the Sox plan to be cautious with their top arms over the season’s final week. Manager Alex Cora tells Chris Cotillo of Mass Live the team will be judicious with the workloads of its high-leverage relievers (Matt Barnes, Darwinzon Hernández, and others) in prep for next season. A player who should make at least one appearance is Heath Hembree, who Cora notes could be used either in traditional relief or as an opener. Hembree has been on the shelf since August 2 with elbow inflammation in his throwing arm.

Injury Notes: Cain, Segura, Hand, Betts, Upton

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The latest on several notable injury situations from around the league…

  • Lorenzo Cain was forced out of the Brewers’ game Thursday afternoon due to left ankle discomfort, the team announced.  Cain hit a solo homer in the bottom of the fourth, but was replaced by Trent Grisham in center field in the top of the fifth.  Injuries have plagued Cain all season, as thumb, wrist, and oblique problems have contributed to his career-worst 76 wRC+ (from a .251/.316/.357 slash line and 10 homers) over 592 plate appearances. He’s “greatly wobbled,” per Tom Haudricourt of the Miilwaukee Journal, who adds that Cain could undergo more tests.
  • Phillies shortstop Jean Segura exited the team’s loss to Atlanta with a left hamstring cramp, Matt Gelb of The Athletic relays. The severity’s unknown as of now, Gelb notes. One of many big-ticket offseason acquisitions for the Phillies, Segura has produced a respectable 2.6 fWAR in 593 plate appearances, but he hasn’t been as effective as he was with the Diamondbacks and Mariners from 2016-18.
  • Indians closer Brad Hand threw a “really good” bullpen session Wednesday, manager Terry Francona said, though it’s still unclear when he’ll be able to return (via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). It was the first bullpen for Hand during his absence from a fatigued arm, which dates back to Sept. 8. Things have gone well to this point for the Hand-less Indians, as they’ve gone 7-2 since he last pitched and only needed saves in two of those wins (one apiece from Adam Cimber and Oliver Perez).
  • There’s nothing meaningful left to play for this year for the Red Sox, though banged up right fielder Mookie Betts still doesn’t plan to shut it down, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. The reigning AL MVP, who hasn’t played since Sept. 12 on account of left foot inflammation, is aiming to come back during a four-game series in Tampa Bay that begins Friday. Betts wouldn’t line up in the field during that set, though, as the Red Sox don’t want to risk running him out there on turf. Meanwhile, reliever Heath Hembree is progressing from elbow problems and could come off the IL next week. Hembree’s balky elbow has forced him to the shelf twice this year and stopped him from pitching since Aug. 1.
  • Angels left fielder Justin Upton will undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection Friday, per Bill Ladson of MLB.com. The hope is that it’ll aid Upton in overcoming the pain in his right knee – a joint that has bothered him since spring training. The eliminated Angels shut Upton down for the season last week after injuries helped limit the normally terrific hitter to a .215/.309/.416 line with 12 home runs in 256 plate appearances.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, Price, J.D., Chavis

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Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts underwent an MRI on Monday that revealed left foot inflammation, according to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The issue has kept Betts out since Sept. 12, and with the Red Sox’s playoff hopes all but dead, he doesn’t seem like a lock to return in 2019. As you’d expect, though, Betts is hopeful he’ll see action again this year, Mastrodonato writes. The reigning AL MVP hasn’t been quite as otherworldly as he was during Boston’s championship-winning 2018, but that’s hardly a knock on his performance this season. Betts has still batted a fantastic .293/.391/.527 with 28 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 680 plate appearances, and his 6.3 fWAR ranks eighth among AL position players.

  • One of Betts’ injured teammates, left-hander David Price, doesn’t seem likely to pitch again this season. Price’s ailing left wrist continues to stop him from throwing anything but fastballs, per Mastrodonato. Red Sox brass plans to discuss a potential surgery with Price, though it doesn’t seem as if it would be a major procedure. Price’s wrist has troubled him dating back to last season, and the cortisone shot he underwent on it in early August hasn’t produced the type of results he or Boston hoped for at the time. The 34-year-old has made only two starts and totaled 4 2/3 innings since July ended. His most recent outing came Sept. 1.
  • Designated hitter J.D. Martinez is day-to-day after exiting the Red Sox’s marathon game against the Giants on Tuesday with left groin tightness, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports. It’s conceivable the big-hitting Martinez is in his final days as a Red Sox, as he could decide after the season to opt out of the guaranteed three years and $62.5MM left on the contract he signed going into the 2018 campaign. The 32-year-old Martinez would be taking an enormous gamble in leaving the rest of that deal on the table, but he has arguably made a case to do so by putting up yet another huge season at the plate (albeit nowhere near as impactful as his 2017-18 showings).
  • As of two weeks ago, infielder Michael Chavis looked like a candidate to miss the rest of the season after suffering a setback in his recovery from an oblique strain. It now appears the rookie will play again this year, though, with Mastrodonato noting he could be healthy enough to return over the weekend. Chavis, who hasn’t played since Aug. 11, got off to a sizzling start this season before his production tailed off during the summer.

MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?

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ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.

The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.

Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.

The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.

And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.

We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?

(Poll link for app users)

Will any of these three be traded in the offseason?
Francisco Lindor 39.31% (3,089 votes)
Mookie Betts 34.23% (2,690 votes)
Kris Bryant 26.47% (2,080 votes)
Total Votes: 7,859

Cora, Betts, Porcello Discuss Red Sox’ Outlook & Future

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As the Red Sox continue to hover just out of postseason position, but well shy of striking distance in the division, the organization’s outlook has been a topic of keen interest in Boston. Without the backstop of an August trade period, the upcoming trade deadline has taken on increased significance for the defending champs.

Skipper Alex Cora has continued to emphasize the need for urgency from the men in uniform. As MLB.com’s Ian Browne reports, Cora has now acknowledged the possibility that the club may not be in a strong buying position when it comes time to make a final call in one week’s time.

“The front office has a job to do,” says Cora. “Obviously our goals are set to win the World Series. If it doesn’t look that way and they go somewhere else and take another approach, you’ve got to respect that. At the end, we have to perform and we have to win games.”

There has been some chatter of a minor sell-off, though it seems quite difficult to imagine that taking place with the Boston club just two games out of postseason position and still laden with talent. But it remains to be seen how hard the front office will be able to push to improve, with a realistic assessment of the likelihood of a repeat crown necessarily weighing in the balance of how much young talent and/or future payroll capacity can be sacrificed to improve the present active roster.

Superstar Mookie Betts is emblematic of the frustrating Sox’ season to this point. He romped through 2018 but has been merely very good this year. As Christopher Smith of MassLive.com covers, Betts suggeests there’s nothing to do but keep grinding.

“Just like I may not be able to have that type of MVP season every year, well, how many teams have amazing seasons like that every year?” Betts queries. “So this year has new challenges that we have to go about and accept it.”

If the Sox elected to blow things up, Betts would be the club’s biggest trade chip. But that’s exceptionally unlikely. True, Betts has generally not seemed inclined to pursue an extension, which certainly weighs into the considerations from a team perspective. But it’s all but impossible to imagine a scenario where it makes sense for a thriving Sox franchise to part with such a talent when it controls him for one more season.

Plus, there are still scenarios where Betts ends up spending his entire career in Boston — even if it comes after a trip onto the open market. He emphasized in his comments how much he loves playing for the Sox.

“It’s been nothing but amazing here,” he says. “Just because you go to free agency doesn’t mean you don’t want to be somewhere. It’s just a part of the business.”

While Betts has declined persistent extension overtures, the opposite was true for righty Rick Porcello. As he approaches free agency, the thirty-year-old hurler is now mired in his worst season in the big leagues, with a 5.61 ERA through 110 2/3 innings. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, Porcello is choosing to focus on the things he can control right now rather than dwelling on what has gone wrong or what the future holds.

From a team perspective, Porcello says, “it’s not going to be the same journey every year and this is our path right now.” Rather than comparing to the club’s blessed 2018 path, he says, the club should “focus on the positives and focus on moving forward and what we can do with the remaining games we have left, that’s where all the energy should be.” Those words translate to Porcello’s personal situation as well, as the righty explains and Bradford explores in great detail. Porcello says he isn’t worried about future possibilities that aren’t even yet clear, emphasizing that he doesn’t “think about the contract stuff anymore.”

Porcello seemingly summed things up, for himself and the team: “You play enough baseball you start to realize it’s so much wasted energy thinking about if we’re going to get a player, am I going to get traded, what’s going to happen, are we still trying to win? I have one priority right now and that’s getting my [stuff] right to get guys out. That’s it.”

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mookie Betts Does Not Expect To Reach Extension With Red Sox

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In the midst of a run of extensions around the game — in particular, yesterday’s $360MM Mike Trout agreement — Red Sox star Mookie Betts faced another round of questions about his future in Boston from reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (links to Twitter). While he again expressed that he’s fond of the organization, Betts left little doubt that he’s not moving off of his price point for his post-arbitration years.

Betts acknowledged having received prior offers from the Red Sox. To this point, they simply haven’t met his understandably lofty self-valuation. It was reported yesterday that the team dangled $200MM in advance of the 2018 season. That was a hefty offer under the circumstances, but Betts has little cause to regret turning it down. He went on to turn in a hugely productive season and take home American League MVP honors, setting himself up for a record-setting run through arbitration and untold riches thereafter.

When asked whether he expects to open the present season without a long-term deal, Betts responded:

“That’s exactly what I expect. Didn’t expect anything to happen until I’m a free agent.”

It certainly doesn’t sound as if there’s much cause for optimism for a deal to come together before Betts hits the open market after the 2020 season. While nothing can be ruled out, as the 26-year-old hasn’t indicated that he’s altogether opposed to listening to offers, he’ll evidently demand that the Red Sox put quite a bit more money on the table than they have to this point.

Betts offered another hint about his own views on his value and how he intends to pursue a contract that matches it. While he called some of the recent extensions “great deals” for the players involved, he also noted that “some of them could’ve gotten more.”

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