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Mookie Betts

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

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4:05pm: The Boston org has wrapped up deals with all of its dozen arb-eligible players, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). We’ve covered several other players elsewhere. Notably, shortstop Xander Bogaerts ($12MM) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM) have agreed to big salaries.

11:20am: The Red Sox and American League MVP Mookie Betts have settled on a one-year deal worth $20MM, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The salary figure is a record for a player in his second year of arbitration eligibility. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Betts could earn an additional $400K via awards (Twitter link). Betts, who will remain under team control through 2020, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $18.7MM.

Fresh off a historic 2018 campaign in which he slashed an otherworldly .346/.438/.640 en route to a World Series title, Betts earned himself a $9.5MM raise from his previous salary. His record-setting deal will establish the new standard for players with four-plus years of MLB service time. In fact, notes Jeff Passan of ESPN, Betts’s new contract has been exceeded only by players in their fourth year of arbitration by virtue of the Super Two rule.

Furthermore, this development could be notable for the Red Sox in that the team failed to reach an agreement with their superstar outfielder last winter, leading to an arbitration hearing to determine his salary. It is possible that this settlement could signify an increased willingness to discuss a potential contract extension, for which it appears talks have yet to substantially progress, in the future. However, should the two sides fail to agree to a multi-year extension next offseason–Betts’s last arbitration-eligible season before reaching free agency–the three-time All-Star could command an astronomical salary in his final year of team control; at the very least, Betts appears poised to eclipse–if not shatter–the $23MM record set by Josh Donaldson one year ago, which currently marks the highest one-year arbitration salary ever.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

After the first year of arbitration, it is typical for arbitration salaries to be rewarded as raises on top of previous year’s salaries, based on platform year performances. That sets Mookie Betts up for quite a hefty salary in 2019, since he nearly had a record high $10.5 million salary last year and had quite an accomplished 2018 campaign.

Mookie Betts won the MVP Award with a .346 average and 32 home runs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, he only had 80 RBI, but entering arbitration with the MVP Award, my model projects him to get an $8.2 million raise and earn $18.7 million. That would easily set a record for second time eligible salaries (Ryan Howard got $15 million way back in 2009), but would fall short of the record raise for second time eligible players. Bryce Harper set the latter mark in 2017 with $8.63 million riase. Harper’s case was atypical, though, because it came following a two-year deal. Other than that, Betts is projected for the largest raise ever—which does make sense following an MVP season.

In the last decade, only two players have entered their second year of arbitration coming off an MVP season—Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Josh Hamilton way back in 2011. Not only is Hamilton a stale comp at this point, but both received multi-year deals that might make them less likely to be used as comparables. While Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise would therefore not typically be a useful comparable, both he and the Blue Jays filed numbers in a tight band ($7.05 million and $7.5 million) that were also quite close to the actual result. Given that the comp is a few years out of date, it seems reasonable for Betts to argue that the Donaldson salary point represents a clear floor. Since Donaldson hit .297 with 41 HR and 123 RBI, his performance was more power-centric. But it certainly suggests roughly an $8 million raise for a reigning MVP is close to the right price.

Betts also won the batting title, which also calls back to Charlie Blackmon and Dee Gordon in recent years. The latter had only four home runs in 2015, so he is a weak comparable. Blackmon is a little stronger since his 2016 numbers — .324/29/82 — delivered some of the punch that Betts did at .346/32/80. That earned him a $3.8 million raise, which was actually well shy of what the model predicted. If there’s any added boost for the batting title, then, it’s tough to gauge.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox can certainly try to point to the Blackmon comp if they want to hold Betts’ salary down, but the Donaldson raise seems like a more compelling precedent since he won the MVP Award. And it probably does not hurt Betts’s negotiating position that he scored a major win over the Sox last year in a hearing. All things considered, I suspect Betts will get a record raise and earn quite close to his 2019 projection.

Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts Win MVP Awards

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced tonight that Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was voted the Most Valuable Player of the National League. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Mookie Betts took the prize in the American League.

Yelich nearly pulled off a unanimous win after helping lead the Brew Crew to a stirring NL Central title. Only one first-place vote went to another player, as Mets hurler Jacob deGrom was not-unjustly rewarded for an exceptional season that already netted him a Cy Young Award.

Clearly, though, Yelich stood above the rest of the position-player field. It surely helped his case that he led a resurgent Brewers club, but the 26-year-old turned in a stellar first year in Milwaukee quite apart from what his teammates did around him. In 651 plate appearances, he turned in a .326/.402/.598 batting line with 36 home runs and 22 steals.

That eye-popping offensive output, combined with solid glovework and excellent overall baserunning, left Yelich with a hefty tally of 7.6 WAR (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). Cubs infielder Javier Baez placed second, with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado finishing in bronze-medal position.

As for Betts, his season was even more compelling, allowing him to stand out even against a field of excellent contenders in the American League. He finished the season with a ridiculous .346/.438/.640 slash while qualifying for the 30/30 club. Plus, he’s widely considered one of the best defenders and baserunners in the game.

It’s a credit to Betts that he was able to top yet another MVP-worthy performance from the incomparable Mike Trout, whose perennial excellence is not diminished by the fact that a rotating cast of others has occasionally matched or bettered him. Indians infielder Jose Ramirez turned in a second consecutive third-place finish.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, JDM, Wright, Kimbrel

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The latest on the American League champions:

  • When the Red Sox go on the road to face the Dodgers in the World Series, they could feature an interesting defensive alignment. Speaking with reporters (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) on Saturday, Cora revealed that the Red Sox are considering deploying right fielder Mookie Betts at second base in Los Angeles, where they won’t have the luxury of using a designated hitter. In doing so, the Red Sox would keep DH/outfielder J.D. Martinez’s elite bat in the lineup. No matter what, Martinez is going to play, though the team’s not giving any thought to putting him at first base, Mastrodonato reports. Martinez has next to no experience at first, whereas Betts played plenty of second base as a prospect and most recently lined up at the keystone 14 times as a major league rookie in 2014.
  • Left knee issues have shelved Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright since Sept. 29, but the knuckleballer hasn’t ruled out a World Series return, per Mastrodonato. Although the Red Sox had to remove him from their ALDS roster when the playoffs began two weeks ago, Wright has been throwing since then, and he issued a fairly encouraging update Saturday. “My arm and body feels really good, just a matter of can my knee withstand the pressure of throwing off a mound consistently?” Wright said. He’ll “go through a few tests” before the Red Sox decide whether to include him on their World Series roster, according to Cora. Wright threw a short simulated game Sunday to help determine the status of his knee, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The 34-year-old was an asset out of the Red Sox’s bullpen during the regular season, when he notched a 1.52 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .191/.303/.314 line.
  • It hasn’t been a banner postseason for all-world Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, who has allowed at least one earned run in four of five appearances. However, Kimbrel may have begun a turnaround in his most recent outing Thursday, when he threw a scoreless, hitless frame with two strikeouts and a walk to close out the Astros in the ALCS. Kimbrel revealed afterward that he had been tipping his pitches – something former closer Eric Gagne first noticed while watching from home, Ben Harris of The Athletic writes (subscription required). “There’s quite a few people, but actually Eric Gagne texted me last night,” Kimbrel said. “He’s good friends with AC (Alex Cora), and he texted me and gave me some advice.” As part of an interesting piece that’s worth checking out, Harris goes on to break down what Kimbrel was doing wrong and how he fixed it.

AL Notes: Tucker, Abreu, Betts, Blue Jays

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The Astros called up top outfield prospect Kyle Tucker from Triple-A today, and that could very well mark the team’s final September promotion, manager A.J. Hinch tells reporters (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Hinch added that Tucker probably won’t play much in the season’s final weeks, though with Tucker having already debuted earlier this summer and his season in Triple-A Fresno over, there’s little reason not to bring Tucker back up. The 21-year-old former No. 5 overall pick hit just .154/.254/.212 in 59 plate appearances with the ’Stros earlier this year, but he decimated Triple-A pitching at a .332/.400/.590 pace, swatting 24 homers and swiping 20 steals along the way.

More from the American League…

  • In an interesting look back at what could have been, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald examines the Red Sox’ initial pursuit of Jose Abreu when he was an international free agent. The BoSox maxed out at six years and $60MM in their pursuit of the vaunted Cuban slugger according to Silverman, but they ultimately lost out when the White Sox offered a total of $68MM guaranteed over that same term. Silverman runs through a series of trickle-down effects, as Boston instead pivoted to re-sign Mike Napoli. That was one of many lackluster offseason moves that set the stage for the ill-fated 2014-15 offseason that saw the Sox sign Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. There’s little sense in fretting too much over hindsight, but it’s nonetheless an intriguing reminder of the domino effect that so many offseason moves (and non-moves) carry.
  • Mookie Betts exited today’s game with soreness in his left side, the Red Sox announced today. That’s the same issue that caused him to land on the disabled list earlier this summer, but manager Alex Cora tells reporters that this instance was precautionary and not considered serious (Twitter link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). Betts is expected to see some time at DH in the Red Sox’ upcoming series against the Yankees, with J.D. Martinez lining up in right field in his place.
  • The Blue Jays are making some changes in their scouting department, as first reported by Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). Specifically, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that pro scouts Jon Bunnell, Dan Evans, Bryan Lambe and Kimball Crossley are being let go. A pair of veteran Jays scouts, Jim Beattie and and Brad Matthews are retiring as well. While some organizations have begun to pare back on their pro scouting staffs, Davidi notes that the Blue Jays are planning on replacing all six of them.

Red Sox Place Ian Kinsler on DL, Pedroia To 60-Day DL

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The Red Sox have officially placed the recently-acquired Ian Kinsler on the disabled list and moved fellow second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day DL. Infielder Tony Renda has been added to the MLB roster to take Kinsler’s place.

Kinsler, of course, recently came to Boston by way of a July 30th transaction that sent a pair of minor leaguers to the Angels. The Red Sox also received about $1.83MM in the swap. The 36-year-old had already amassed four hits in just 11 plate appearances with the Red Sox and has enjoyed a strong season to date, accruing 2.1 fWAR across the 2018 season in part due to typically stellar defense.

It remains to be seen how the Sox plan to proceed in Kinsler’s absence. The “tight hamstring” probably won’t shelve the veteran for too long, but it’s not as though Boston has a host of capable keystone defenders. Following the removal of Kinsler from last night’s matchup, MVP candidate Mookie Betts shifted from the outfield to second base (his natural position, though one he hasn’t played since 2014).

As for Pedroia, it would appear that recent concerns were not without cause. Following offseason knee surgery, the veteran (and one of the long-time faces of the Red Sox franchise) hasn’t been able to make a clean comeback to the field. Of course, it’s worth mentioning that Pedroia has already been back on the disabled list for over 60 days, so this transfer won’t in and of itself affect his timetable to return to the field. Still, there’s been no word of any change to his status.

Red Sox Place Mookie Betts On 10-Day DL

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The Red Sox have placed star outfielder Mookie Betts on the 10-day DL, the team announced. He has been diagnosed with a left abdominal strain.

Boston had been hoping to avoid this outcome. Betts last played on May 26th, but the move can only be made retroactive to the 29th. That same consideration explains why the team made the placement today: the club will be shorthanded tonight anyway — by two players, in fact, with Dustin Pedroia also in a holding pattern — but this way Betts can return one day sooner.

Clearly, then, there’s going to be another hitter on the way tomorrow. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets that Sam Travis has been pulled from the lineup at Triple-A, which certainly suggests that he will be tabbed to function as a bench bat.

Needless to say, there won’t be any replacing Betts, who has been on an otherworldly tear all season long. He’s sporting a monster .359/.437/.750 slash with 17 home runs, 13 steals, and 24 walks against just 25 strikeouts through 213 trips to the plate thus far in 2018.

While the Sox need everything they can get from their star outfielder, as the division race is shaping up to be a season-long epic, they are surely also mindful of avoiding any complications from what seemed initially to be a fairly minor injury. Hopefully, that’s still the case, but Betts will now be given as much time as he needs to rest and heal up without any concerns as to whether the team will be down a man in a given game.

East Notes: Betts, Eaton, Phillies, Clippard

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Mookie Betts tells WEEI’s Rob Bradford that nothing has changed on his end regarding a potential extension with the Red Sox, as the 25-year-old still has no intention of discussing a long-term deal during the season. Controlled for just two years beyond the current campaign, Betts’ increasing proximity to free agency and his continually elevated level of play have priced a theoretical extension out of bargain territory and into a massive financial undertaking, as Bradford examines. Certainly, that’s the case with any young star as he navigates through the arbitration process, but Betts already has one record arbitration payday in his back pocket, and he’s turning in the best season of his young career thus far. The $30MM annual rate that Jose Altuve secured on his recent extension with the Astros seems like an increasingly relevant comp, if not a baseline, Bradford posits in highlighting the difficulties that the Sox could face in locking up their brightest young star.

More from the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • Adam Eaton’s ankle injury doesn’t appear to be healing as well as the Nationals’ might’ve hoped, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that Eaton is traveling to Wisconsin to be evaluated by a specialist. He’ll meet with orthopedic surgeon Robert Anderson, currently on the Green Bay Packers’ medical staff but also a renowned surgeon who has worked with high-profile athletes ranging from Steph Curry to Cam Newton to Derek Jeter. Eaton has been on the disabled list for nearly a month after suffering an ankle injury on a slide early in the 2018 season.
  • The Phillies announced tonight that they’ve activated right-hander Ben Lively from the 10-day disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 26-year-old Lively opened the season in Philadelphia’s rotation but struggled to a 6.85 ERA in 23 2/3 innings before landing on the disabled list with a back strain. In his absence, fellow righty Zach Eflin stepped into the rotation and has been outstanding in two starts, yielding a run on seven hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. He’ll remain in the rotation over Lively for now, and as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted yesterday, a continued hot streak from Eflin could force the Phils to make some tough decisions. GM Matt Klentak has already stated that Jerad Eickhoff will be in the rotation when he returns from the DL later this month, thus pitting Eflin against righties Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta for the final two rotation spots behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. Of course, things can change quickly in the coming weeks, either with a downturn in Eflin’s performance or another injury elsewhere on the roster.
  • With Roberto Osuna on administrative leave and under league investigation, the Blue Jays turned to Tyler Clippard with their first save opportunity. Jays manager John Gibbons deployed setup men Seung Hwan Oh, John Axford and Ryan Tepera in the middle innings on Wednesday evening with his team trailing before handing the ninth inning over to Clippard, who worked a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts. While Wednesday’s sequence of events doesn’t necessarily anoint Clippard the closer during Osuna’s absence, it does at least suggest that he’s the early favorite for the role. Signed to a minor league deal this March, Clippard has given the Jays 19 1/3 innings of 1.40 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. He’s running up a staggeringly low 18.6 percent ground-ball rate, however, which could well be a portent for further homer troubles down the line. As a reminder for fantasy players, you can track ninth-inning situations throughout the game by following MLBTR’s @CloserNews account on Twitter and by utilizing Jason Martinez’s closer depth chart over at Roster Resource.

Injury Updates: Jones, Britton, Pham, Aledmys, Vogt, Betts

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X-rays were negative on Adam Jones’ right hand and wrist after the Orioles center fielder was hit by a pitch during Saturday night’s game.  Jones wasn’t in today’s lineup, though it was already a scheduled off-day for the veteran and he told reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) that he was feeling fine.  Manager Buck Showalter also spoke to the media about some other Orioles injury situations, including the news that Zach Britton will face live hitters during a batting practice session on May 15.  Outfielder Trey Mancini is also battling minor knee soreness and didn’t start today’s game, though he did appear as a pinch-hitter.

Here are some more injury updates from around baseball…

  • Tommy Pham left Saturday’s game due to what an MRI revealed to be slight irritation in his right hip abductor, the Cardinals outfielder told media (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza)  Pham missed a few games due to a similar injury earlier this season, and said that another brief absence could be necessary, though he was hopeful of playing on Monday.  The Cardinals didn’t start Pham in tonight’s game against the Cubs, though he is available to pinch-hit.  Pham is off to a wonderful start, hitting .327/.445/.541 over his first 119 PA and leading the league in on-base percentage.
  • Blue Jays shortstop Aledmys Diaz suffered a sprained left ankle while beating out an infield hit today, and had to be removed from the game.  Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and others reported that x-rays were negative on Diaz’s ankle, though he will undergo an MRI to further determine the severity of the injury.  Acquired in the offseason to provide depth behind Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop, Diaz has appeared in almost every game for Toronto as Tulowitzki has been on the DL recovering from surgery to remove bone spurs from both ankles.  Tulowitzki isn’t expected back for at least another month, so Yangervis Solarte could end up seeing more time at short if Diaz is also sidelined, as the Jays’ other top shortstop options are rookies Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Richard Urena.  Gift Ngoepe could rejoin the mix if he clears waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • Stephen Vogt removed himself from a minor league rehab game on Saturday with another shoulder problem, the Brewers catcher told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).  Vogt “felt something pinch in my shoulder” during a throw to third base, and described the new problem as coming from a different area of his shoulder than the capsule strain that has sidelined him since late February.  Even a day after suffering the injury, Vogt said he was still “in a lot of pain” and was going to be examined by team doctors on Monday.  The ominous-sounding situation doesn’t bode well for Vogt or the Brewers’ catching mix, as the Manny Pina/Jett Bandy tandem hasn’t contributed much at the plate over the first month-plus of the season.
  • Mookie Betts left today’s game in the second inning after a wild throw from Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman hit Betts’ shoulder blade.  The throw “got me right on the bone,” Betts told the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and other reporters, and while manager Alex Cora chose to be cautious in removing the star outfielder, the injury doesn’t seem too serious.  Betts didn’t receive x-rays, and he hopes that Monday’s off-day in the Red Sox schedule will be all the recovery time he needs.

AL East Notes: Solarte, Donaldson, Trumbo, Red Sox

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Yangervis Solarte’s career has been marked by both professional setbacks and personal tragedy, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi details in a profile of the Blue Jays infielder.  A lightly-regarded prospect growing up in Venezuela, Solarte was close to giving up on his baseball dreams before signing with the Twins in 2005.  Davidi’s piece details Solarte’s long path to becoming a big league regular, as well as the unimaginable burden Solarte had to face when his wife Yuliett passed away due to cancer in September 2016.  Though it all, Solarte has continued to be an energetic figure on the field and become an increasingly important piece of Toronto’s everyday lineup.

Here are some more items from around the AL East…

  • Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons told Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae (Twitter link) and other reporters that Josh Donaldson could potentially return from the DL on Friday when the team begins a series in Tampa Bay.  Donaldson began his rehab assignment today, going 0-for-3 for Toronto’s high-A ball affiliate.  Donaldson played as a DH today, so he has yet to test his ailing shoulder in a game situation by throwing from third base.
  • Mark Trumbo is slated to be activated from the DL on Tuesday, with the Orioles already optioning Joey Rickard back to Triple-A today to create roster space.  Trumbo will be making his season debut after missing six weeks with a quad strain, with the slugger looking to personally rebound from a poor 2017 season and also add some pop to an Orioles lineup that has struggled to score runs this year.  The O’s figure to use Trumbo as a right-handed hitting complement at first base, DH, and right field, as those positions are respectively occupied by lefty-swingers Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez, and switch-hitter Anthony Santander.  Manager Buck Showalter also told media (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly) that Luis Sardinas will be placed on the 10-day DL due to a bad back, and Engelb Vielma looks to be the likeliest candidate to replace Sardinas as the utility infielder.
  • Red Sox manager Alex Cora provided some updates (to MLB.com’s Ian Browne and other reporters) about some injury situations, including Mookie Betts’ day-to-day status with right hamstring tightness.  Betts didn’t play on Sunday as the Sox are being cautious with their superstar: “If this game is September, October, November, I guarantee he’d play, but we have to take care of him,” Cora said.  As for other sidelined Sox players, Dustin Pedroia is begun play in extended Spring Training games as the second baseman continues his rehab from knee surgery last October.  Tyler Thornburg is also beginning a Triple-A rehab assignment on Monday, which will be his first taste of game action at any level after missing all of 2017 due to shoulder problems that resulted in thoracic outlet surgery.  Given the extended layoff, Browne thinks Thornburg’s rehab assignment could last for the maximum 30 days as the right-hander gets himself back into game shape.
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