Mookie Betts

AL East Notes: Yankees, Gardner, Red Sox, Luxury Tax, Rays, Relocation

By TC Zencka | December 11, 2019 at 5:39am CDT

Now that the ink on Gerrit Cole’s contract is dry, Brett Gardner may be next on the docket, per the SNY Network’s Andy Martino. Though there’s no explicit mention of the Yankees, it’s easy to presume Gardner will return to the Bronx for a thirteenth season. At 35-years-old, Gardner had perhaps the best season of his career in 2019, and he did so while capably manning centerfield for much of it. The slap-hitting Gardner put forth an uncharacteristic power display, smashing 28 home runs with a .503 SLG – just the fourth time he’s ever slugged over .400 and the first time he’s ever eclipsed the .430 SLG mark. Before we get sucked into Yankee-mania again, let’s take a look at what’s happening elsewhere in the AL East…

The incentives for the Boston Red Sox to slip under the luxury tax line in 2020 are manyfold, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Because of higher penalties for repeat offenders, Boston could save themselves close to $100MM in tax penalties over the course of the next three seasons. Of course, to do so, they’ll need to get under the $208MM tax line. Another benefit takes into account a worst case scenario. Should Mookie Betts sign elsewhere as a free agent next year, the Red Sox could improve their compensation from a pick after the fourth round to a pick after the second round. They could also miss out on a potentially hefty revenue sharing rebate that will come from the phase out of Oakland’s revenue-sharing subsidies. Oakland’s market size has been superseded by lack of revenue, thus placing them among the revenue-sharing recipients, but their free ride is coming to an end. That money will be dispersed among the large-market, revenue-sharing contributors, perhaps proportionately so. That would be a boon for the Red Sox, but they risk forfeiture of the reward if they continue to spend over the tax. Hence, the David Price auction rolls ever onward.
The once far-fetched idea of splitting time between Florida and Montreal now may be the only way the Rays maintain a presence in Tampa Bay, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The timeshare agreement won’t likely take effect until 2028. If an agreement can’t be put in place, principal owner Stuart Sternberg is more likely to find a new location for the Rays or sell the team to someone else who will. A full-time move to Montreal is not in the cards, should Sternberg keep the team, as he thinks there are better full-time markets available. Which markets, exactly, is not yet clear. If this timeshare agreement doesn’t come together, however, the Rays may start the search for a new home in earnest. There are many potential snags to the timeshare plan, one of which is that new stadiums would likely have to be built in both markets. It’s hard to imagine how building two stadiums roughly 1,500 miles apart is the best solution, but that’s the plan for now.

Red Sox Notes & Rumors: JBJ, Mookie, Porcello, Holt, Front Office

By Connor Byrne | December 9, 2019 at 7:32pm CDT

The Red Sox are “actively” attempting to trade center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The Mets had been among the teams in on Bradley, per Abraham, but they addressed their need in center field last week with the addition of Jake Marisnick from the Astros. Bradley’s a fine player who has generally performed well with the Red Sox, but moving him (and his projected $11MM salary for 2020, his last year of team control) would help the team shave payroll in an effort to get under the $208MM luxury tax next season. Newly minted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it remains a goal for the franchise to spend below the threshold in 2020, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com.

Market Chatter: Rangers/Rendon, Nats Spending, Betts, Hill, Maldonado

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2019 at 8:59pm CDT

The Rangers feel like they’re in solid position on star third baseman Anthony Rendon, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. It appears as if the possibility of a shorter deal at a premium AAV might hold some appeal to the Rangers as well as Rendon. But it’s tough to gauge the likelihood that he’ll land in Texas. Per Sullivan, the sides have yet to launch “serious negotiations” on the price tag. You can be sure that Scott Boras will not rush into a signing if he feels competition can drive the price up yet further, so there’s likely some market development yet to come.

More recent chatter …

Agent Scott Boras expressed skepticism regarding the Nationals’ recent declaration that they can’t afford both Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The super-agent tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that he sees ample capacity for the D.C. organization, which has done quite a lot of business with Boras over the years (to mutual satisfaction, for the most part). Britt Ghiroli provides further assessment of the situation in another Athletic piece, proffering a sensible distinction between what the club can do and what it prefers. As she points out, too, it’s also possible that owner Mark Lerner made the comments to buttress his bargaining position. And it’s probably fair to add that the Nats have generally not shied from carrying big payrolls and making large commitments in the recent past.
Also skeptical? Rival executives, regarding the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s really not surprising to hear, though the reasoning offered by Nightengale’s sources is a bit confounding. The issue, he says, is that rival clubs won’t offer all that much for the outstanding outfielder. They “can simply wait until he’s a free agent next winter” rather than taking on a big salary and giving up valuable prospects. That seems to miss the point in large part, as a team acquiring Betts now would be doing so specifically to pick up his highly valuable age-27 season. Renting one of the game’s best players would obviously alter a team’s outlook for the coming season rather drastically; it stands to reason it’d cost something to do so.
Lefty Rich Hill has not only drawn wide interest despite major elbow surgery … it seems he’s open to considering offers from all teams, so long as they have hopes of winning in 2020. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Hill says he’s not focused solely on his two preferred landing spots (the Dodgers and Red Sox). While it seems that he’d still rather end up in one of those two places, the veteran says that they “might not work out.” He’s open to considering other contenders. And Hill left no doubt that he anticipates playing a big role in the 2020 season, saying he hopes to be ready to roll by June.
The Angels are planning to sit down with backstop Martin Maldonado at the Winter Meetings, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That’s not especially portentous news, as Fletcher points out, as teams hold many such meetings this time of year. Still, it’s a notable connection, particularly since the catching market has developed on a relatively rapid timetable. The 33-year-old Maldonado spent on the Halos roster in 2017 and 2018, so the organization is plenty familiar with him.

Quick Hits: Reddick, Cubs, Betts, Attendance

By Dylan A. Chase | November 23, 2019 at 6:18pm CDT

A few quick items from around the game…

Astros outfielder Josh Reddick underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder AC joint on Friday, according to a tweet from Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (link). Despite the apparently ailing shoulder, Reddick managed to appear in 151 games last season, his seventh full go-around in the majors. Reddick is expected to be ready for Spring Training, on the heels of a rather tepid 2019 that saw him hit .275/.319/.409 (94 wRC+) while grading out as a below-average regular on the whole (1.1 fWAR). After falling short in this year’s Fall Classic, it will be interesting to see what the club does with regard to Reddick. The 32-year-old is due one more season of $13MM salary before hitting free agency next offseason, so it’s not as if a trade is a likely scenario. Still, Reddick’s spot in the outfield, along with the club’s current vacancy at catcher, strikes this writer as an area of potential improvement for club president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow to explore this winter. At the least, it will be interesting to see how Reddick’s 2020 playing time is impacted by promising in-house youngster Kyle Tucker.
Earlier today we brought news of the Yankees’ hire of Rachel Balkovec, 32, to a minor league hitting coach role. According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, it appears the Cubs have also hired a 32-year-old Rachel with an impressive resume to their player development corps, with Bastian relaying that Marshall alum Rachel Folden will now serve as the lead hitting lab tech and fourth coach for Chicago’s Rookie League Mesa affiliate (link). Folden comes to the Cubs with experience instructing baseball and softball players “based on biomechanics, science, technology and data” via her own fastpitch instructional enterprise. Folden’s primary connection to the Cubs comes through Justin Stone, Chicago’s new director of hitting, who previously deployed Folden as a hitting consultant at his own Elite Baseball Training academy. Stone, commenting on her hire, described Folden as the “perfect person” to cross the implicit barriers that have long sidelined professionals like Balkovec and Folden.
Earlier this winter, Red Sox team president and CEO Sam Kennedy said his club would “continue to engage” with the representatives of outfielder Mookie Betts in regard to extension talks, but Kennedy allowed on Friday that those talks have yet to begin, as noted in an article from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (link). While new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran met with Betts’ reps from VC Sports during the GM Meetings last week, those talks are said to have been of a mostly informal nature. Kennedy had reiterated his desire to keep Betts in a Red Sox uniform several times this offseason, and it’s hardly unexpected that Bloom may still be getting a handle on the broadest aspects of his new role. Betts is projected to make $27.7MM this offseason in his final pass through arbitration and has long proclaimed a desire to test free agency.
MLB attendance slipped 1.5 percent in 2019, adding to a cumulative 8.5 percent drop dating back to 2012. Joe Sheehan of Baseball America places much of the blame for this attendance swoon at the doorstep of the “rebuilding processes that are leading to unwatchable baseball”. As Sheehan notes, the Phillies, Twins, Reds, and Padres all saw attendance increases after making a few impact additions last offseason, while even winning teams like the Indians saw fewer passes through the turnstiles after largely standing pat in the winter of 2018-2019. Of course, it’s also worth noting, by my own addition, that several of the teams flagging in the attendance category also operate in some of the smallest and least economically flourishing metropolitan markets (although aspects of revenue sharing, of course, help to mitigate those factors).

GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox

By TC Zencka | November 16, 2019 at 11:21am CDT

The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…

White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.

Red Sox Notes: JDM, Betts, Trades, Porcello

By Mark Polishuk | November 7, 2019 at 3:59pm CDT

Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy felt J.D. Martinez’s opt-out decision “was a hard one to read” and “I honestly thought it could go either way,” though Kennedy is obviously pleased to have Martinez back in the fold, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes. Martinez’s choice will naturally have a big impact on Boston’s financial situation, particularly since the team is looking to shed some payroll and possibly get under the luxury tax threshold, though Kennedy was only focused on what Martinez’s return will mean for the club on the field.

“You never want to lose a talented player. Of course, there are hard decisions teams have to make in terms of parting ways with guys in every sport,” Kennedy said. “What J.D. Martinez has done for the Red Sox and hopefully will continue to do, is not just a big bat in the middle of the lineup. He also helps elevate other players on the team and that’s widely documented. That’s helpful. That’s a good thing. Now we move on.”

AL Notes: Adell, Etch, Mookie

By Dylan A. Chase | October 7, 2019 at 11:11am CDT

A quick word of update on Angels outfielder Jo Adell, who has been turning heads in the Arizona Fall League–which isn’t to say that eyes weren’t already trained on him to begin with. After a 2019 season that saw Adell hit .289/.359/.475 with ten home runs across three levels and 341 plate appearances, the Kentucky native entered AFL play last month as MLB Pipeline’s 5th-ranked prospect in the game. As Kyle Glaser of Baseball America points out this morning, Adell is bolstering that pedigree with his most recent performance for the Mesa Solar Sox (link).

The 20-year-old Adell, who was selected 10th overall by Los Angeles in the 2017 draft, went 7-for-17 in AFL play last week with a home run and a balanced 5-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Adell reached as high as Triple-A in the Los Angeles system in 2019, although the team may want to see him improve upon the production he posted there in a small sample of 130+ plate appearances (to say nothing of the potential service time considerations involving a prospective star such as Adell). With outfielder Kole Calhoun a possibility to move on in free agency, there does figure, at least, to be some MLB opportunity for the youngster in 2020 when GM Billy Eppler deems him ready.

More from around the AL this Monday morning…

A sad note of remembrance in recognition of the passing of Orioles organizational fixture Andy Etchebarren, who died this weekend at age 76. Etchebarren, an All-Star in his rookie season of 1966, was an important part of Baltimore’s mid-century dynasty. Perhaps most notably, the backstop helped catch, along with Elrod Hendricks, the Orioles’ four 20-game winners of 1971; it’s probably not un-noteworthy that the man known as “Etch” was also the last man to ever record an at-bat against Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax. After his playing career, as noted in a post from MASN’s Roch Kubatko (link), Etchebarren carved out a nice career for himself as a coach in the Baltimore pipeline, including stints as manager of the club’s Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, and time spent as the bench coach for former manager Davey Johnson.
The site has already thoroughly explored the ongoing contract outlook for Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts. To recap, the club’s forthcoming CBT trapeze act, Betts’ impending arbitrational raise, and the player’s apparent ambivalence to signing an extension with the team have all coalesced to the point where the near-unthinkable–a trade involving the near-peerless Betts–may be a consideration this offseason. One factor that won’t figure into Betts status for 2020? Organizational tension. As noted in a piece from Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com, the four executives* in charge of Sox operations in the wake of the Dave Dombrowski firing–including assistant GM Eddie Romero–are not holding Betts’ businesslike approach to negotiation against him (link). “I think he’s doing what’s in the best interest of Mookie and I think that’s what athletes should do,” Romero told Cotillo. “Every situation of these is case-by-case. Mookie has been the one who has sacrificed his body and has put in the work. He has the right to decide what he wants to do.” In addition to Romero, team president Sam Kennedy and chairman Tom Werner both comment in Cotillo’s piece on their faith in Betts as both a person and a player, and Romero goes as far as to say that the player has “earned” the right to hit free agency. While this dialogue could just be seen as an encouraging bit of rationality in the front office realm, it is fair to wonder, for those reading tea leaves, whether such a congenial atmosphere could be foreshadowing to an amicable parting of ways between player and team.

*An earlier version of this post mistakenly referred to “four men” running the baseball operations department, when in fact the group of four executives is made up of one woman (Raquel Ferreira) and three men (Eddie Romero, Zack Scott, and Brian O’Halloran). We regret the error.

Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade

By Mark Polishuk | October 6, 2019 at 9:49am CDT

First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox. As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode. While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.

This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.” And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021. For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.

Betts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019. After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process. Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).

That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own. Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most. Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.

With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems. There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December. Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer. That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.

Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…

No Chance

The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding. And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.

Probably Not

The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts. Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston. The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest. The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts. Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).

I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville. But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns. Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.

Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition

The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic. The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros’ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players. The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.

While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike. Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments. Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.

Makes Some Sense

I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency. Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts). It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.

The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion. If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.

As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system. Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.

The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode. It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.

The Win-Now Teams

Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.

As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason. Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022. The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen. Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.

Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season. Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams. Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system. Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move? Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.

The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target. Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more. Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.

The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market. That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job. Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax

By Steve Adams | September 30, 2019 at 12:40pm CDT

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.

As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.

Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.

The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.

One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.

Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.

Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.

If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).

Latest On Mookie Betts

By George Miller | September 28, 2019 at 2:49pm CDT

As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.

With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.

For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.

Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.

But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.

To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval’s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.

Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.

Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.

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