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Noelvi Marte

Reds Notes: McLain, Marte, Ashcraft, Lodolo

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An excellent rookie season for Reds infielder Matt McLain was brought to a sour end by an oblique strain. He didn’t play after August 27, missing the final month as the Reds came up a little shy of the postseason.

That injury is now behind him. McLain told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he is working out and swinging without issue. The 24-year-old said he’s preparing for a defensive role at either middle infield position.

McLain split his rookie year between those spots. He saw a little more action on the left side, playing 465 innings at shortstop and 296 at second base. As things stand, McLain projects as Cincinnati’s starting shortstop. Arguably the most impressive of the Reds’ strong rookie class, he cemented himself as an everyday player with a .290/.357/.507 slash through his first 89 MLB contests.

Whether McLain sticks at shortstop likely depends on how Cincinnati proceeds with Jonathan India. The latter’s name has again come up in trade rumors since the offseason got underway. President of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back somewhat on that possibility, categorizing any openness to dealing India more as general diligence than an indication they’re trying to subtract from an infield surplus.

Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer are all options for the left side of the infield. De La Cruz and Marte can handle either shortstop or third base. Encarnacion-Strand might be better suited at first base; Steer has third base experience but could play a bat-first utility role between the corners and designated hitter. It’s a strong collection of talent that allows the front office to consider swapping an infielder for pitching help even after the free agent additions of Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán.

Marte hit a minor snag while playing in the Dominican Republic. Krall told reporters the 22-year-old strained a hamstring and will be shut down from finishing the winter ball season (relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The issue isn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training. Marte hit well following a late-season MLB debut, putting together a .316/.366/.456 showing in his first 35 big league games.

In additional injury updates, Krall said pitchers Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft should be full-go for Spring Training (Goldsmith link). The former’s season was wrecked by recurring stress reactions in his left tibia. He didn’t pitch in the majors after May 6. Ashcraft sustained a stress reaction in the big toe on his right foot. He underwent season-ending surgery in the middle of September.

Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India

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Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.

Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.

McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.

It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.

Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.

Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.

India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Reds Activate Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Hunter Greene

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The Reds announced six roster moves today, most prominently the returns of some of their biggest names.  Joey Votto and Jonathan India were both activated from the 10-day injured list, while Hunter Greene was activated from the COVID-related injured list.  Right-hander Lyon Richardson was optioned to Triple-A, while infielder Alejo Lopez and right-hander Carson Spiers (both on the roster as substitute players) were respectively returned to Triple-A and Double-A.

India last played on July 28, as a case of plantar fasciitis in his left foot resulted in a longer absence than expected on the IL, and there was at least some concern that the second baseman might have been sidelined for the rest of the 2023 season entirely.  However, the Reds’ rough planned timeline for India in mid-August ended up basically going to plan, so he’ll now look to step back into his normal duty at second base.  Votto has missed a little over two weeks due to left shoulder discomfort, and given Votto’s history of shoulder problems, it counts as very good news that the longtime first baseman is already back on the field.

Cincinnati’s waiver-wire additions of Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader have further added to what has become a bit of glut of position players for the Reds, though injuries have essentially kept the team’s list of options from becoming a true surplus.  Star rookie Matt McLain will still be out for at least another week or two in recovering from an oblique injury, and Noelvi Marte just suffered a broken nose yesterday after being hit in the face by an errant throw during pregame warmups.  Manager David Bell told reporters (including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Marte isn’t yet being placed on the IL since the rookie infielder will attempt to play through the discomfort, possibly wearing a protective mask.

With Marte a question mark, the Reds’ infield figures to shake out as Votto and Christian Encarnacion-Strand sharing first base and DH duty, India at second base, Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, and Spencer Steer probably taking the bulk of third base work.  If Marte is able to continue playing, Steer can split time at second base, third base, and in the corner outfield, which creates a bit of a logjam in the outfield but Steer’s playing time will certainly be prioritized given his strong numbers.

Greene is set to start today’s game against the Cardinals, with the right-hander set for his first action since August 30.  Greene was hit hard in his first two outings back from a 60-day IL stint (due to hip pain) before looking much sharper in that August 30th outing against the Giants, but Greene was then sidelined again by the COVID outbreak that has hit the Reds’ clubhouse in recent days.

NL Central Notes: Donaldson, Stroman, Davis, Marte

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The Brewers inked veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson to a minor league deal just before the calendar flipped to September, allowing the club to bring him up sometime this month for the stretch run and possibly into the postseason should they choose to do so. Donaldson, who slashed just .142/.225/.434 in 33 games with the Yankees this year before being released in late August, is not guaranteed a roster spot by any means, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that manager Craig Counsell told reporters no call-up is imminent for the former MVP.

“In order for Josh to best be prepared to make a contribution here, we need to get a foundation of at-bats for him in the Minor Leagues.” Counsell said. Things are moving somewhat slowly on that front, as Donaldson has appeared in just four games for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, with a .143/.294/.357 slash line across 17 plate appearances. Current third baseman Andruw Monasterio has provided the Brewers with roughly league average production in 254 trips to the plate this year, slashing .271/.343/.371 with a wRC+ of 97. Given the power Donaldson showed during his brief healthy stint with the Yankees this year, it’s feasible that he could provide the lineup with a boost compared to Monasterio’s low-power profile. Regardless of that possibility, however, it seems the 37-year-old will have to prove himself in the minors before joining the big league club in Milwaukee.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched for the big league team since the end of July due to hip inflammation and a rib cartilage fracture, but continues to make progress on his return. With manager David Ross having indicated yesterday that Stroman is ahead of schedule following a successful live batting practice session on Thursday, it’s still nonetheless an encouraging sign for fans on the north side that Stroman is set to throw a second live BP at the club’s Arizona complex on Monday, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. It seems reasonable to expect that if Monday’s session goes well, Stroman could advance to a rehab assignment in fairly short order. While it’s not clear if there’s enough time left in the regular season for Stroman to build up to a starter’s workload, it’s becoming increasingly likely the veteran righty returns to the mound in Chicago before the season comes to a close. With the Cubs currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, it’s possible Stroman could impact the team into October even if he isn’t able to return before the end of the regular season.
  • Pirates youngster Henry Davis didn’t see his big league career start off the way he surely hoped it would, as the first overall pick from the 2021 draft slashed just .213/.306/.339 (74 wRC+) in 209 trips to the plate before hitting the injured list with a muscle strain in his hand back in August. Fortunately for Davis, it seems like he’ll have a chance to end his rookie year on a high note, as Kevin Gorman of the Tribune-Review was among those to relay that the catcher-turned-outfielder will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A this evening. With Davis on the shelf, the club has mixed-and-matched between Miguel Andujar, Joshua Palacios, Ji Hwan Bae, and Connor Joe in the outfield alongside regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski.
  • Reds infielder Noelvi Marte was scratched from the lineup just before today’s game against the Cardinals after an incident occurred on the field during pre-game warmups. As relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Marte was playing catch with shortstop Elly De La Cruz when Marte was caught unaware and struck in the face by a ball from De La Cruz. The club announced that Marte was day-to-day with a face contusion. Marte has performed decently in 70 plate appearances since having his contract selected late last month, with a .254/.329/.381 slash line that’s good for a wRC+ of 90. Infielder Alejo Lopez took over for Marte in the starting lineup this evening, with Spencer Steer sliding from second base to third base to accommodate Lopez. With Jonathan India, Matt McLain, and Kevin Newman all on the injured list already, a significant absence for Marte would be a brutal turn of events for the injury-plagued Reds.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • With the Reds calling up Noelvi Marte, how do they fit in playing time for all their rookie position players? After keeping Nick Senzel at the deadline, what kind of return could they get for trading him during the offseason? (18:40)
  • Will the Mets pursue any notable free agent pitchers this off season? (24:05)
  • Of the teams that have exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this season, which ones do you see as most likely to dip back below it during this coming offseason? (26:15)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back? – listen here
  • The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here
  • Trade deadline recap – listen here

Big Hype Prospects: Schanuel, Winn, Marte, Harrison, Salas

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We’ve reached the point of the season when prospect call-ups won’t expend their rookie status due to time spent on the roster. It’s still technically possible for such players to pass the plate appearance or innings pitched thresholds.

In any event, this marks an opportunity for teams to offer their young players time to acclimate in the Majors ahead of a Rookie of the Year bid in 2024. We saw similar with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson last season. Let’s cover a few such players along with others on the ascent.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Schanuel, 21, 1B, LAA (MLB)
14 PA, .250/.357/.250

Schanuel was summoned by a desperate Angels club to cover for the absence of C.J. Cron. The 2023 draftee has over twice as many walks as strikeouts in limited professional action. In a perfect world, he likely would have spent more time in the minors working on achieving higher-quality contact. There isn’t a spot on the Angels roster for both Cron and Schanuel. In other words, we can expect Schanuel to return to the minors if and when Cron recovers from his lower-back tightness. Until then, we’ll see if Schanuel can learn to complement his discipline and feel for contact with better lift and exit velocities.

Masyn Winn, 21, SS, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 498 PA, 18 HR, 17 SB, .288/.359/.474

A high-probability league-average shortstop with upside for more, Winn is now 11 plate appearances into his Major League career. The well-rounded shortstop makes up for a lack of carrying traits (besides his impressive throwing arm) with an equal lack of weaknesses. There’s only one knock against him: merely adequate exit velocities. Adequacy is hardly damning praise. For a 21-year-old to possess his skills and traits means he has countless ways to take the next step from acceptability to stardom. He could do it on defense, through feel for contact, burgeoning power, speed on the basepaths, or a little bit of everything.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 389 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .281/.360/.460

Marte was one of the first prospects covered by this column last season. I noted a slight souring among evaluators who were beginning to see him as more of a core performer than a future star. His performance this season remains prime for disagreement. The surface level stats are good-not-great, and his peripherals are a mixed bag. He’s a tad prone to swinging strikes. Even so, he avoids strikeouts while showing plus discipline. He also produces exciting top-end exit velocities for a 21-year-old. Some scouts think he’s close to physically maxed out. Others see room for further growth.

Broad strokes, the outlook is similar to Winn albeit from a lesser defensive position. There are so many ways for Marte to find his way to star-caliber production. The floor resembles a Major League core performer.

Kyle Harrison, 22, SP, SFG (MLB)
(AAA) 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9, 4.66 ERA

Harrison makes for one of the toughest evals in the minors. He has a feel for missing bats along with the repertoire of a high-ceilinged starting pitcher. He also happens to struggle with command and control. Of his 21 starts, Harrison reached five innings exactly once. He never faced 20 or more batters. The relief risk is ooey-gooey tangible, but the Giants have every incentive to give him more time in the rotation. Presently, Harrison is expected to join a unit consisting of Logan Webb and a handful of struggling veterans like Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Jakob Junis. The Giants will be playing bullpen games from here through the end of the season.

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (AA)
(A/A+) 257 PA, 9 HR, 5 SB, .257/.335/.447

At the tender age of 17 years, 2 months, and 20 days, Salas finds himself in Double-A. This latest promotion is virtually unprecedented, made all the more so because Salas hit just .200/.243/.229 in 37 High-A plate appearances. It doesn’t require an active imagination to wonder what else is going on here. Perhaps the Padres Double-A affiliate has a desirable instructor or facilities. Maybe, like a baby bird, he imprinted on one of the other players the Padres promoted to Double-A yesterday. Could a long-term contract be in the offing?

In any event, Salas is now the youngest player to grace Double-A in recent memory. He’s considered a precocious receiver with the potential to become a quality hitter too.

Three More

Carson Williams, TBR (20): The Rays promoted Williams from High-A straight to Triple-A. The move allows for Junior Caminero’s (Double-A) development to remain unaffected. Williams is 1-for-13 with two walks and six strikeouts. He’s running a 22.2 percent swinging strike rate with poor exit velocities. Note the tiny sample.

Samuel Zavala, SDP (18): Though not quite on the Salas-track, Zavala earned a promotion to High-A yesterday after hitting .267/.420/.451 with 14 home runs and 20 steals in 459 Low-A plate appearances. He has issues adjusting to pitches in certain parts of the strike zone, especially up-and-away.

Paul Skenes, PIT (21): Earlier today, the Pirates announced Skenes would join the Double-A club, skipping High-A in the process. Whether this move is in preparation for a 2023 or 2024 debut, it won’t be long before we see Skenes grace a big league mound.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Reds Promote Noelvi Marte

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The Reds called up infield prospect Noelvi Marte today, with the corresponding move of Kevin Newman placed on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique strain. Marte is already on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster but he will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Robert Murray of Fansided was the first to report that Marte was on his way to the Show.

Marte, now 21, was a high-profile international signing of the Mariners. That club gave him a signing bonus of $1.55MM in 2018 and he quickly came to be regarded as one of the top prospects in their system. A strong professional debut in 2019 got him into top 100 territory, with Baseball America ranking him #92 in the league going into 2020.

With the pandemic wiping out the minor leagues in 2020, Marte and all other prospects missed a year of game action. But he got back on track with a solid showing in 2021, his first full professional season. He hit .273/.366/.459 between Single-A and High-A for a wRC+ of 118 while also stealing 24 bases. Going into 2022, he was considered the 18th-best prospect in the league by Baseball America, with FanGraphs having him in the #13 slot.

He came to the Reds midway through 2022 as part of the Luis Castillo trade, one of four young players that Cincinnati added to their system in that deal. Between the two organizations, he hit .279/.371/.458 at the High-A level for a wRC+ of 131. Despite those strong numbers, his prospect stock faded a bit. Baseball America dropped him to #63 overall going into 2023, noting that opposing pitchers were starting to realize they could exploit his weakness on breaking balls. He also started to move from shortstop to third base, diminishing his future value somewhat. FanGraphs expressed similar concerns in bumping him down to #91.

This year, he started at Double-A, hitting .281/.356/.464 at that level, swiping 10 bags in 50 games. He’s also hit .280/.365/.455 in 39 Triple-A games while racking up another eight steals. With the heightened offensive environment of the International League this year, that Triple-A line translates to a 105 wRC+, above-average but only slightly. Baseball America currently ranks him 52nd overall with FanGraphs at #71.

Regardless of the recent fluctuations in the evaluations from prospect watchers, this is yet another exciting young player promoted by the Reds in what is shaping up to be a remarkable season in that department. Given their recent struggles, few observers picked them to be competitive coming into the year. But they have been continually promoting one prospect after another, with Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Andrew Abbott all promoted for their debuts this year. Those players have joined other youngsters who had previously made it to the big leagues, such as Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Steer and many more.

That youth movement has shot the Reds into the postseason picture, as they are currently tied with the Marlins for the final Wild Card spot with about six weeks left on the schedule. Now they will add Marte into the mix and hope that he can add further fuel to the fire for the final playoff push. How he fits into the puzzle remains to be seen, as he’s primarily played shortstop and third base this year. De La Cruz will likely stick at short but Marte could perhaps take some time at the hot corner. Steer has been getting the bulk of playing time there lately but has also played some left field and could perhaps slot in there more often, taking playing time from Stuart Fairchild.

The timing of the promotion is worth noting, as Marte will likely retain rookie status going into 2024. Position players are considered rookies as long as they start a season with less than 130 at-bats and fewer than 46 days on a big league roster. There are now 44 days left until the end of the regular season, meaning Marte will still be a rookie next year as long as he falls shy of 130 at-bats.

That’s a significant distinction under the current collective bargaining agreement, as the Prospect Promotion Incentive can provide extra draft picks for clubs as a way to disincentive service time manipulation. A position player who had appeared on at least two Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline the preceding offseason can earn his club a bonus draft choice if a) the team carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year and b) the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons. It’s surely not a coincidence that Masyn Winn of the Cardinals and Nolan Schanuel of the Angels were both promoted as soon as they could have been while still having the ability to net their club an extra draft pick next year, with Marte now a third notable prospect promoted in recent days.

But that will be a concern for the future. In the interim, it’s yet another domino of the Reds’ incredible youth movement tipped over as they try to surge into the playoffs. With Marte joining the other young players on the roster, while pitchers like Greene and Lodolo are coming back from injuries, the fans in Cincinnati could be in for an exciting few weeks as well as a future that looks increasingly bright.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Notes: Newman, India, Lively, Marte, Fraley

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Noelvi Marte’s arrival in the majors is the big news out of Cincinnati today, but Marte’s promotion came with a notable corresponding move.  The Reds announced that infielder Kevin Newman was placed (retroactive to August 16) on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain.

The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, though even if Newman has suffered a Grade 1 strain, any setback or lingering effects could mean that his 2023 season is over.  The 30-year-old has hit .253/.311/.364 over 253 plate appearances in his first season with the Reds, after being acquired from the Pirates back in November.

Newman and Jose Barrero shared the starting shortstop role before Matt McLain’s promotion in mid-May, as Barrero was ultimately sent to the minors and Newman became a pure utilityman.  Newman made some starts at second base and third baseman, but even that playing time dwindled as more and more of Cincinnati’s star infield prospects gradually made their way to the Show.

This is Newman’s second IL stint of the year, after he missed a 10-day minimum in July dealing with gastritis.  Heading into the trade deadline, Newman was seen as a potential or even likely trade chip given the Reds’ increasingly crowded infield picture, yet Cincinnati either couldn’t find an appropriate deal or simply opted to hang onto the veteran as an experienced depth option.  Rather than a trade, this oblique injury has now unfortunately taken Newman out of the picture for at least the next 10 days.

Manager David Bell provided the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith (X link) and other reporters with updates on other injured Reds players, including the news that Jonathan India will undergo another MRI on Thursday.  Since a previous MRI revealed a worsened tear in India’s plantar fascia, the second baseman was already expected to be out of action until at least a week into September, with some question as to whether or not India would be able to return at all this season.

The next MRI comes a few days before the end of India’s planned two-week shutdown from running, so the test will reveal if the tear has continued to widen, or if the shutdown has been effective in at least limiting the damage.  It seems likely that India will require some type of procedure to address his plantar fasciitis, though he and the Reds hope that any surgery might be able to be held off until the offseason.

Bell also said that Ben Lively will make another rehab outing before the club considers reinstating him from the 15-day IL.  Lively has twice been sidelined due to right pectoral strains this season, with his most recent absence starting with his IL placement on August 2.  With his 15 days now up, Lively is eligible to be activated at any time, though he has thrown only 5 2/3 combined innings over two previous rehab starts, with an ungainly 15.88 ERA.

The injuries to India and Newman have provided an unwelcome answer to Cincinnati’s potential infield surplus, as there is now plenty of room for the Reds to find playing time for their up-and-comers.  Bell said that Marte will be the regular third baseman, with Spencer Steer now moving into more regular work in left field.  Steer has already seen a good deal of left field time this season, as his versatility has been almost as useful to the Reds as his potent bat.  Steer has bounced between left field, first base, and third base, and also even picked up a few appearances as a second baseman.

Jake Fraley is another Reds player looking to return from the IL before 2023 is over, though Fraley told Goldsmith that he’ll need offseason surgery to properly fix a fracture in his left foot and a cracked fourth metatarsal.  Fraley was presented with the option of undergoing the season-ending procedure now, but he is instead trying to tough it out, ramping up his baseball activities to include a live batting practice today and an increased running program.

There’s certainly some real risk for Fraley, as he said that doctors told him that playing on the fractured foot could result in a clear break.  However, “the reason why they’re ok with me playing through this is that even if I do something like that, which would be a worst case scenario, it doesn’t change the recovery time of the surgery,” Fraley said, noting that he is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.  Fraley is willing to gamble further injury in order to be part of the Reds’ playoff push, saying “if you tell me there’s a 1% chance with a cool team like this, I’m going all-in.”

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

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